... continued from above.
3. Our starters outside of Giannis vs. Durant also have the advantageI think there's a tendency in these drafts to sometimes think that whoever has the top player, or perhaps two players, will win. That's good news generally for me, because Giannis has outplayed Durant. However, I'm not sure that it's an accurate take. Teams win based upon how well their teams play. Sometimes, it's a team's superstar taking over, like Kawhi Leonard in Toronto. Other times, it's a role player stepping up, like Andre Iguodala forcing his way into the starting lineup.
So, among the "secondary players", how do the matchups look?
Starting bigs: Alonzo Mourning / Karl Malone vs. Marc Gasol / Pau Gasol
Pau Gasol was a binkie of mine until he was traded to the Lakers. He was the guy I wanted the Celtics to trade for before they got KG. Pau was a reliable All-Star who could put up 18 / 10 without much of a problem. But, let's be clear: he didn't impact the game on both ends. His defense ranged from bad to decent, but it certainly was never good. He wasn't particularly mobile, which is why he primarily played at center during most of his career (and certainly in 2010, when 62% of his minutes were at center). He was slow laterally, struggling against the pick-and-roll.
I know that almost all of we Celtics fans have blocked out the 2010 Finals. I consistently hear "Pau was the real MVP of that series". Two things on that: first, the refs were the MVP of that series. Second, Pau was nothing special. He had five straight games of shooting below 50% in the Finals, shooting 28-for-66 (42%) . Until Perk got injured, Pau was -15 in the first five games, only finishing in positive territory in Game 1. He rebounded well, but offensively and defensively, he was below average.
Pau isn't matched up against a slow opposing center here. Instead, he's playing the best pure power forward of all-time, one season removed from winning the NBA MVP. Karl Malone was still in his prime in 2000, playing at an All-NBA and All-Defense level while leading Utah to the best record in the West. Despite Pau having a size advantage, Malone was much quicker and more athletic. Pau was a slow 250 pounds. Karl Malone was a 250 pound freight train who averaged 25.5 points / 9.5 rebounds / 3.7 assists.
At the other big spot, we have Marc Gasol vs. Alonzo Mourning. Both guys won DPOY in the selected years, but I think that's where the similarities end. Marc missed the All-Star game, and strangely wasn't voted All-Defense First Team. Alonzo won his second DPOY, and finished third in MVP voting. He dominated on both ends, averaging 20+ points and 3.7 blocks. He was a lot more mobile than Marc, and was a much more impressive scorer and shooter.
I don't think there's any real argument that Milwaukee has better starters up front. They were better offensive players, and better defensively. They also probably fit together better as a pairing. That's without even considering that Giannis can play PF at an All-NBA level.
Starting guards: Manu Ginobili / Mike Conley vs. Allan Houston / Steve Nash
I imagine some of you are asking yourselves how I'm going to convince you that Mike Conley is better than Steve Nash. Well, I won't go there, but I will argue that the gap probably isn't nearly as big as you're thinking.
So, let's give Steve Nash -- particularly, 2007 Steve Nash -- his due. He averaged 18.6 points, 11.8 assists, .654 TS% and led the league's #1 offense to 113.9 points per 100 possessions. The guy could run an offense, and put up sexy shooting and passing numbers.
On the other end, we have Mike Conley, who doesn't get the blood flowing nearly as much as Steve Nash. Mike Conley will probably never get a single Hall of Fame vote, and in the 2050 Historic Draft, only the real nerds will even recall him.
But here's a surprisingly little known fact: Mike Conley might not be a Hall of Fame player, but he had one hell of a season in 2017. 20.5 points, 6.3 assists, 40.8% 3PT%, .604 TS%. In the playoffs, he exploded even further: 24.7 points, .620 eFG%. The kicker? Conley's Off Rtg was 121 points per 100 possessions, only slightly behind Nash's 124 per 100.
Are you a believer in Boxscore Plus Minus? BPM tells us that Mike Conley was a better player than Steve Nash in their respective years. VORP has them almost tied. WS/48 has a slight advantage for Nash. And in the playoffs, Conley had pronounced advantages.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.fcgi?request=1&sum=0&player_id1_hint=Steve+Nash&player_id1_select=Steve+Nash&y1=2007&player_id1=nashst01&idx=players&player_id2_hint=Mike+Conley&player_id2_select=Mike+Conley&y2=2017&player_id2=conlemi01&idx=players Are those advanced stats accurate? I have no idea. I don't really rely on them much. What I do know is that Conley was bigger, stronger, faster and more athletic than Nash. He got to the hoop more, and was a bigger weapon as a scorer. He was a much, much better defender. There's no doubt that he'd limit Nash. And, I'm not much of a believer in ball-dominant point guards. I really think that a team needs at least two primary ball-handlers to properly attack a modern defense. One guy who holds the ball for long periods of time just makes it easier for defenses to adjust. And, while the "7 seconds or less" offense was innovative at one time, I think it becomes less effective in a league full of super-players who can get back in transition.
And, the kicker is, Conley isn't even the best PG on our roster.
I think Ginobili vs. Houston probably speaks for itself, but if it doesn't: Ginobili leads in points (about 20% per possession), assists (more than double per possession), steals (more than double per possession), rebounds (almost double per possession), FTAs (almost double per possession), eFG%, and TS%. And he was a much better defender. Ginobili had a net differential of +16.0 when comparing ORtg to DRtg; Houston was 3.0. Ginobili is the advanced stats darling (big leads in WS, RPM, BPM, VORP, PER), and of course he ended up with four rings.
4. As an aside, is Boston's offense really going to run as well as we're giving it credit for?From 2005 until 2008, Phoenix ranked 1st, 1st, 3rd and 4th in pace. The bigs on those teams? Very quick, athletic big men in Shaun Marion and Amare Stoudamire. Wings and guards included guys like Joe Johnson and Leandro Barbosa.
Here, the big men are being replaced by Pau and Marc Gasol, two slow-footed bigs. Allan Houston, Danny Granger and Allan Houston were never particularly fast-paced players, either. Nash is confined to a mid-paced, half-court offense. I'm not sure that that maximizes his talents.