Jaylen Brown was offered 4 years $80M

[slamtheking]

https://mobile.twitter.com/ChrisBHaynes/status/1186317024240123911

Shooting guard Buddy Hield and Sacramento Kings reach agreement on an extension worth four years, $86 million, league sources tell Yahoo Sports. He has $20 million in incentives

Woj says $94 million with $12m in incentives, so some confusion here.  Maybe the first $8m is trivially easy to get?

https://twitter.com/wojespn/status/1186316753292447746

Nonetheless, that's about a minimum for Jaylen at this point with him being so much younger.



Looks like Woj clarified and said the $8m are "exceedingly reachable" so $86 guaranteed, $94 likely, $12 more possible.

https://twitter.com/wojespn/status/1186317978066968577

that wouldn't be unreasonable.  hope that's the offer and something agreed to quickly by both sides

[keevsnick]

100/4 seems guaranteed seems fair to me. Thats a contract that even if Jaylen improves a little isnt a complete disaster going forward, while offering some upside if he really takes off. It provides a big salary the Celtics could use next summer in salary matching. For Jaylen its life changing money and removes the risk of injury this year.

Maybe throw in some fancy stuff like declining salary, various incentives, ect to tweak that final number. Like incentives for some combination of 3pnt%, team wins, all-star selections and all-defense selections.

[saltlover]

 

Hield got 4 yrs / 94 million.

How is Jaylen gonna do much better than that?

I'd offer him $95 million and call it a day.

The chances that Jaylen breaks out enough this year to get a much better deal than that are pretty small.

Hield is 4 years older than Jaylen.  The difference between 23 and 27 is enormous in terms of basketball growth.  Furthermore, Hield’s deal will take him into his early 30s, and thus might include some decline, whereas Brown’s deal will end when he’s right in his prime.  It’s not very difficult to imagine that Jaylen’s age 24-27 seasons will be better, on the whole, than Hield’s age 28-31 seasons.

[keevsnick]

Hield got 4 yrs / 94 million.

How is Jaylen gonna do much better than that?

I'd offer him $95 million and call it a day.

The chances that Jaylen breaks out enough this year to get a much better deal than that are pretty small.

Hield is 4 years older than Jaylen.  The difference between 23 and 27 is enormous in terms of basketball growth.  Furthermore, Hield’s deal will take him into his early 30s, and thus might include some decline, whereas Brown’s deal will end when he’s right in his prime.  It’s not very difficult to imagine that Jaylen’s age 24-27 seasons will be better, on the whole, than Hield’s age 28-31 seasons.

Heild is 4 years older, and Siakim is 2.5. That difference between Siakim and Heild is that Siakim has perceived upside left. Jaylen does too, which is why the number will probably seem high to people (if something gets done).

[DefenseWinsChamps]

Give him 100 million with incentives up to 130 million (i don't know the rules on this).

All-defensive teams. All-NBA teams. All-star games. 4 apg. Etc.

I think he has that kind of potential, and he will likely hit some of his incentives raising his contract, but gives some out if he doesn't.

[Who]

Dumb move by Hield. He would have gotten more next summer.

Only reason to sign early for a player of his stature or Jaylen's stature is if you are signing a max deal.

[PhoSita]

Hield got 4 yrs / 94 million.

How is Jaylen gonna do much better than that?

I'd offer him $95 million and call it a day.

The chances that Jaylen breaks out enough this year to get a much better deal than that are pretty small.

Hield is 4 years older than Jaylen.  The difference between 23 and 27 is enormous in terms of basketball growth.  Furthermore, Hield’s deal will take him into his early 30s, and thus might include some decline, whereas Brown’s deal will end when he’s right in his prime.  It’s not very difficult to imagine that Jaylen’s age 24-27 seasons will be better, on the whole, than Hield’s age 28-31 seasons.

Buddy is also a much better offensive player with a proven elite skill that is arguably the most valuable skill in the league.

Whereas Jaylen has superlative athleticism, but is there an area where he's demonstrated that he's an elite performer? He's an ok spot up shooter, a solid and versatile defender, and a decent-not-great finisher inside. Otherwise it's all potential.

[PhoSita]

Dumb move by Hield. He would have gotten more next summer.

Only reason to sign early for a player of his stature or Jaylen's stature is if you are signing a max deal.

Only a handful of teams even have significant cap space next summer.

[celts55]

Dumb move by Hield. He would have gotten more next summer.

Only reason to sign early for a player of his stature or Jaylen's stature is if you are signing a max deal.

I tend to disagree. Look at IT. He was going to get a huge contract, than he got injured. We're taking about a lot of money, and he'll only be 27 in 4 years.

If I was him, I would entertain a 4 year 90-100 million contract.

[keevsnick]

Hield got 4 yrs / 94 million.

How is Jaylen gonna do much better than that?

I'd offer him $95 million and call it a day.

The chances that Jaylen breaks out enough this year to get a much better deal than that are pretty small.

Hield is 4 years older than Jaylen.  The difference between 23 and 27 is enormous in terms of basketball growth.  Furthermore, Hield’s deal will take him into his early 30s, and thus might include some decline, whereas Brown’s deal will end when he’s right in his prime.  It’s not very difficult to imagine that Jaylen’s age 24-27 seasons will be better, on the whole, than Hield’s age 28-31 seasons.

Buddy is also a much better offensive player with a proven elite skill that is arguably the most valuable skill in the league.

Whereas Jaylen has superlative athleticism, but is there an area where he's demonstrated that he's an elite performer? He's an ok spot up shooter, a solid and versatile defender, and a decent-not-great finisher inside. Otherwise it's all potential.

The Jaylen skill set you just described gets a 6'6 guy who can guard 1-4 around 80/4, without factoring in potential. And again, four years young than Heild. When Jaylen is getting his NEXT contract he'll be Heilds age. I like Heild a lot, but I'd gamble on Jaylen. With rookie extensions you are always gambling a bit on potential since 3 years in its hard to now what a guy is.

In Jimmy Butler thirds year he scored 13.1 on 39.7/28.3 from the field. In Haywards third year he scored 14.1 on 43.5/41.5 shooting. Kawhi had 12.8 on 52.2(his career high weirdly enough)/37.9 shooting. In theird fourth seasons Jimmy scored 20 a game, Hayward and Kawhi were both between 16-17ppg. In other words it would have been smart to lock those guys up after their third season if you could. No guarantee Jaylen follows that same trajectory, but it has to be considered.

And I also think Heild could have doen better than what he just took. Good contract for SAC

[bdm860]

I disagree with anyone mentioning age,  I don't think age will play into it. It's not like Hield is expected to fall off a cliff soon, his prime should extend through the length of this contract, 28-31.  Maybe if most of Hield's contract was going to played out on the wrong side of 30, than ya, or unless you think Brown's realistic ceiling just blows Hield's out of the water, but I don't think either is the case here.

It's not hard to imagine Hield continuing to be a 20ppg, 40%+ 3p shooter for the next 4-5 years, which he already currently is doing.  It's hard for me to imagine Brown far exceeding that over the same time frame (not talking so much about the stats, but the value/ overall production).  It's easier to imagine Brown never getting there to begin with.

You're telling me if you had a 27 year old and 23 year old who played the same position.  And the 27 year old was clearly better, and had maybe fringe All-Star potential, you'd want to pay the 23 year old more?  Well he better have super star level potential then, which I just don't think Brown has.

Even if you think Brown will be the next Jimmy Butler, you let him play out this season and show you first.

I think this gives Ainge more leverage than Brown right now.  If Brown signs an extension today, then I expect it to be roughly the same (give or take a couple of mil) or less, not significantly more.  I guess we shall see though.

[action781]

I would love for that Buddy Hield deal to lead to handshakes in Brighton today

[PhoSita]

You're telling me if you had a 27 year old and 23 year old who played the same position.  And the 27 year old was clearly better, and had maybe fringe All-Star potential, you'd want to pay the 23 year old more?  Well he better have super star level potential then, which I just don't think Brown has.

I think this is what it comes down to.  Some people see star level potential in Jaylen (comparing him to Butler or George).


Like you, I am skeptical that Jaylen's ceiling goes that high.

I tend to think that Jaylen's ceiling offensively is scoring in the high teens with decent shooting splits and average free throw generation / shooting.

Defensively I think his ceiling is a guy who can switch 1-4 without creating any issues for his team, and who can make bigger scoring wings work for their points. 


I don't see him ever being an ideal top 2-3 scoring option, nor do I see him becoming the kind of defender who can take over a game or being the focal point of his team's system.

[keevsnick]

You're telling me if you had a 27 year old and 23 year old who played the same position.  And the 27 year old was clearly better, and had maybe fringe All-Star potential, you'd want to pay the 23 year old more?  Well he better have super star level potential then, which I just don't think Brown has.

I think this is what it comes down to.  Some people see star level potential in Jaylen (comparing him to Butler or George).


Like you, I am skeptical that Jaylen's ceiling goes that high.

I tend to think that Jaylen's ceiling offensively is scoring in the high teens with decent shooting splits and average free throw generation / shooting.

Defensively I think his ceiling is a guy who can switch 1-4 without creating any issues for his team, and who can make bigger scoring wings work for their points. 


I don't see him ever being an ideal top 2-3 scoring option, nor do I see him becoming the kind of defender who can take over a game or being the focal point of his team's system.

Ya, I mean ultimately it all = (what you can Jaylen can be)x(what you think that likelihood is). None of us know, its the kind of thing we really won't be able to judge for 3 years.

[Moranis]

Hield got 4 yrs / 94 million.

How is Jaylen gonna do much better than that?

I'd offer him $95 million and call it a day.

The chances that Jaylen breaks out enough this year to get a much better deal than that are pretty small.

Hield is 4 years older than Jaylen.  The difference between 23 and 27 is enormous in terms of basketball growth.  Furthermore, Hield’s deal will take him into his early 30s, and thus might include some decline, whereas Brown’s deal will end when he’s right in his prime.  It’s not very difficult to imagine that Jaylen’s age 24-27 seasons will be better, on the whole, than Hield’s age 28-31 seasons.

The age difference isn't enormous when dealing with players of similar experience level.  Experience is a much greater indicator of future growth.  It is why throughout history players have generally reached their prime somewhere between year 4 and 7, stay in their prime from 3-5 seasons (peak is usually around season 10) before having at first a minor downslide for a couple of seasons before eventually falling off a cliff somewhere around year 13 to 15.  The actual age of the player doesn't really matter all that much.  Experience matters far more.