I said it before and I will say it again. Danny Ainge is NOT facilitating a Melo-to-Cleveland deal, and giving up the 2016 nets pick, just to get Kevin Love. This is NOT HAPPENING.
Giving up the 2016 Nets pick for Love would undo all of the great things Ainge he's done these past few years.
Given the amount of potential in that pick, and the amount of risk in Love, that trade would have a reasonably high probability of going down in the history as one of the worst trades ever made.
That's pretty harsh Crim.
The Nets are likely going to finish with the 4th worst record. The pick could be # 6 or #7.
Once that pick is gone, we lose most of our ability to trade for a player of Love's caliber.
It's a gamble both ways- and the bigger gamble is holding out for Simmons or Ingram, and then waiting/hoping for them to turn into a top 10 player.
I don't think it's harsh at all.
The Nets are currently tied for the 3rd worst record in the NBA, they have the third worst point differential (often an indicator of how competitive a team is) and they are 3-7 over their past 10 games. Put all that together and I can't see any teams outside of Philly, Lakers and Suns realistically finishing the season worse then they are.
The team that finishes with the worst record has the following odds:
#1 Pick: 25%
#2 pick: 21.5%
#3 pick: 17.8%
#4 pick: 35.7%
#5 pick: 0%
This team has a 46.5% chance at a top 2 pick, a 64.3% chance at a top 3 pick, and is guaranteed a top 4 pick.
The team that finishes with the second worst record has the following odds:
#1 Pick: 19.9%
#2 pick: 18.8%
#3 pick: 17.1%
#4 pick: 31.9%
#5 pick: 12.3%
#6 pick: 0%
This team has a 38.7% chance at a top 2 pick, a 55.8% chance at a top 3 pick, a 70.6% chance at a top 4 pick, and is guaranteed a top 5 pick.
The team that finishes with the third worst record has the following odds:
#1 Pick: 15.6%
#2 pick: 15.7%
#3 pick: 15.6%
#4 pick: 22.6%
#5 pick: 26.5%
#6 pick: 4%
#7 pick: 0%
This team has a 31.3% chance at a top 2 pick, a 46.9% chance at a top 3 pick, a 69.5% chance at a top 4 pick, and a 96% chance at a top 5 pick.
The team that finishes with the 4th worst record has the following odds:
#1 Pick: 11.9%
#2 pick: 12.6%
#3 pick: 13.3%
#4 pick: 9.9%
#5 pick: 35.1%
#6 pick: 16.0%
#7 pick: 1.2%
#8 pick: 0%
This team has a 24.5% chance at a top 2 pick, a 37.8% chance at a top 3 pick, a 47.7% change at a top 4 pick, an 82.8% at a top 5 pick, a 69.5%, and a 99% chance at a top 6 pick.
So assuming the top two spots are far and away the most valuable in the draft, here is the probability of each team (at current standings) landing a top 2 pick:
76ers: 46.5%
Lakers: 38.7%
Nets: 31.3% / 24.5% (depending on tiebreaker)
Suns: 31.3% / 24.5% (depending on tiebreaker)
Looking at those odds, the probably in landing a top 2 pick doesn't differ very much at all for the 2rd worst team (38.7%) vs the 3rd worst team (31.3%).
Even the worst team (46.5) isn't a huge amount more likely to get #1 than the third worst team.
Once you slip into 4th worst spot the odds get worse, but are still very decent.
Once you slip further than 4th last the odds are very low, but certainly not impossible (just ask Wiggins and Tim Duncan).
Looking at this, if we do finish bottom 3 with that Nets pick (which is very much possible) then that pick is almost as valuable as a the Lakers pick and Pick...and the odds at falling top too is not really that much lower.
If we traded for Love and the Nets finish bottom three, and they DO happen to get a top 2 pick in the lottery, then we are giving up legit superstar potential (and a potential franchise player) for the sake of taking on a 27 year old borderline all-star who is constantly injured and probably doesn't make us a contender.
Low reward imho (as I doubt Love puts us over the top) and high risk (because we are risking a potential franchise player to get him).
If Love continues his current trend of statistical decline, and we DO end up giving a pick that becomes the next Karl Anthony Towns / Anthony Davis / Kevin Durant level talent, then Danny is going to look really bad...and if Love ends up continuing to prove he's in capapable of leading a team (or staying healthy), then it could become one of the most lopsided trades ever.
For example, imagine if Cleveland in 2013/14 at the deadline traded their pick (they finished with the 8th worst record) to the Celtics for Rajon Rondo...
Then Rondo put up a the same season numbers he did in Dallas, and Boston ended up pulling Wiggins with the Cleveland pick.
Can you imagine how bad that would have made Cleveland management look? I know real world that makes no sense because Clevleand had Irving, but just still just an example of how trading a low lottery pick for a high risk star could go very pear shaped.
Trading out Brooklyn first for Love could easily go a similar way given Loves decline in effectiveness over the years, he's well documented history of never winning anything, and his tendency to be constantly injured.