The Celtics' Luxury Tax Dilemma

[PhoSita]

When was the last time a team fizzled out in Round 1 as a bottom seed after making it to the ECF the season previous, despite having all the core players from the previous playoff run still on the roster?

It's been a while, but I seem to remember the C's beating the Iverson-Mutumbo 76ers in the first round the year after they made the Finals and we were the higher-seeded team.

That was the 2002 Sixers, who got the 6th seed after winning 43 games.  Celts beat them in 5 games in round 1 as the 3 seed.

Sixers were coming off a 56 win season in which they lost in 5 to the Lakers in the Finals.


Good call, although I'd say if the Celts end up as the 7th or 8th seed and lose in the play-in, or get smoked in 4 or 5 in Round 1, that would be worse.

[Roy H.]

When was the last time a team fizzled out in Round 1 as a bottom seed after making it to the ECF the season previous, despite having all the core players from the previous playoff run still on the roster?

OK yes, they are missing Theis now.  Fair point.

But do you think the team would be in a majorly different position right now if they'd kept Theis?

Theis and Hayward.  I think Gordon what is a big part of us getting to the conference finals, even if he was injured during the playoffs.  He kept guys fresh, he moved the ball, he lead by example. His play helped us earn a higher seed.

And Theis was a really good player.  In particular, he had some really great chemistry with Kemba.

[Moranis]

When was the last time a team fizzled out in Round 1 as a bottom seed after making it to the ECF the season previous, despite having all the core players from the previous playoff run still on the roster?

It's been a while, but I seem to remember the C's beating the Iverson-Mutumbo 76ers in the first round the year after they made the Finals and we were the higher-seeded team.

That was the 2002 Sixers, who got the 6th seed after winning 43 games.  Celts beat them in 5 games in round 1 as the 3 seed.

Sixers were coming off a 56 win season in which they lost in 5 to the Lakers in the Finals.


Good call, although I'd say if the Celts end up as the 7th or 8th seed and lose in the play-in, or get smoked in 4 or 5 in Round 1, that would be worse.

Spurs did 3 times while Duncan was there.  Won title in 99, 1st round exit 00.  WCF 08, 1st round exit 09 (they also won the 07 title preceding that). Won title in 14, 1st round exit in 15.   

Like San Antonio, Dallas did it 3 times with Dirk.  03 WCF, 04 1st round exit.  06 Finals, 07 1st round exit.  Won title in 11, 1st round exit 12. 

Heat won the title in 06 and flamed out in the 1st round in 07. 

Nuggets made 09 WCF and lost in 1st round in 10. 

Blazers were in the 19 WCF and lost in the 1st round last year. 

I think it happens more than you realize. 

[Celtics2021]

When was the last time a team fizzled out in Round 1 as a bottom seed after making it to the ECF the season previous, despite having all the core players from the previous playoff run still on the roster?

It's been a while, but I seem to remember the C's beating the Iverson-Mutumbo 76ers in the first round the year after they made the Finals and we were the higher-seeded team.

That was the 2002 Sixers, who got the 6th seed after winning 43 games.  Celts beat them in 5 games in round 1 as the 3 seed.

Sixers were coming off a 56 win season in which they lost in 5 to the Lakers in the Finals.


Good call, although I'd say if the Celts end up as the 7th or 8th seed and lose in the play-in, or get smoked in 4 or 5 in Round 1, that would be worse.

Spurs did 3 times while Duncan was there.  Won title in 99, 1st round exit 00.  WCF 08, 1st round exit 09 (they also won the 07 title preceding that). Won title in 14, 1st round exit in 15.   

Like San Antonio, Dallas did it 3 times with Dirk.  03 WCF, 04 1st round exit.  06 Finals, 07 1st round exit.  Won title in 11, 1st round exit 12. 

Heat won the title in 06 and flamed out in the 1st round in 07. 

Nuggets made 09 WCF and lost in 1st round in 10. 

Blazers were in the 19 WCF and lost in the 1st round last year. 

I think it happens more than you realize.

Celtics went to 7 in the ECF in 2012, 1st round exit in 2013.

Obviously Golden State went to the finals in 2019 and missed the playoffs in 2020, although there were extenuating circumstances.

3 of the 4 teams from last year's conference finals are going to be 5 seeds or worse, which means there are good odds that those 3 teams all flame out in the first round/play-in.  This year could really be less about this Celtics team and more about something else.

[PhoSita]

I think it happens more than you realize.

I'm not just talking about going to the conference finals or further in one season and then losing in Round 1.  That is a pretty common thing.

You've listed a bunch of examples where teams still win 50+ games and get HCA, but have a disappointing Round 1 in a tough Western Conference.

That's quite a different scenario than this Celtics team.

[PhoSita]

Celtics went to 7 in the ECF in 2012, 1st round exit in 2013.

The dropoff between 2012 and 2013 is an interesting comparison, although that team (a) was really old (b) lost Ray Allen and (c) lost Rondo and Leandro Barbosa to knee injuries halfway through the season.

[Celtics2021]

Celtics went to 7 in the ECF in 2012, 1st round exit in 2013.

The dropoff between 2012 and 2013 is an interesting comparison, although that team (a) was really old (b) lost Ray Allen and (c) lost Rondo and Leandro Barbosa to knee injuries halfway through the season.

This team isn't very old, but it is definitely dealing with a key free agency loss (Hayward) and a ton of small injuries to key players, rather than one major one.  There are four games left in the season and we still haven't had our top 7 available for a single game once since Fournier was acquired.  If you're the Celtics front office, how do you really judge what this team is to make changes or go forward?  Is it s team full of guys who can't stay healthy, or is it really just collective bad luck?  Kemba, Tatum, Jaylen, and Fournier (rookie season excepted when he rode the bench a lot) are all going to miss their most games ever in a season, and Smart is going to miss his second-most.  To have your top 5 guys all have their least-healthiest seasons of their careers at the same time -- that feels like bad luck to me.

[PhoSita]

If you're the Celtics front office, how do you really judge what this team is to make changes or go forward?

I definitely agree that there are a lot of caveats for this season.  The Celts have been hit hard by injuries and COVID.  That plus a very young roster has made it virtually impossible for them to live up to expectations.

With that said, I could see a certain perspective of the team which is:

"You got 60+ games from Tatum playing at an All-NBA type level, you got about 60 games from Jaylen Brown playing at an All-Star level; those guys averaged over 50 points per game combined.  You had the same coach who got you to the ECF 3 of the last 4 seasons.  You still had Marcus Smart.  Kemba Walker missed a lot of time but still rounded into form by the end of the season and averaged around 19 a game.  Robert Williams broke out. Payton Pritchard was better than expected.  Even Aaron Nesmith was producing by the last month of the season.  You added Evan Fournier midway through the season. 

How did you barely win half your games?"

and then:

"How in the world does a team with two All-Star caliber 25+ ppg scorers on the wing, with deep playoff experience, get bounced in the play-in / Round 1?"


More than any of that, I think the biggest takeaway about this team from this season will be the way they made a habit of getting down big in the 1st half of games, and then tried to make up for lost time in the second half.  This is hardly like those early Brad Stevens teams that were not nearly talented enough to be truly competitive, but played hard and tried to get by on hustle, defense, forcing turnovers, etc.  This team let a lot of games get away from them before they ever started playing with energy and focus.  I imagine ownership is not going to feel very good about that.

[Moranis]

I think it happens more than you realize.

I'm not just talking about going to the conference finals or further in one season and then losing in Round 1.  That is a pretty common thing.

You've listed a bunch of examples where teams still win 50+ games and get HCA, but have a disappointing Round 1 in a tough Western Conference.

That's quite a different scenario than this Celtics team.

Portland didn't win 50+ games and get HCA.  They were the 8th seed with a losing record. 

The 07 Heat won 44 games and had the 5th best record in the EC. 

The Mavericks in 12 were the 7th seed at 36-30 (44-45 win pace).  The 04 Mavs did win 52 games, but were the 5th seed when they flamed out. 

The 18 Spurs were the 7th seed, though that was the year Kawhi got hurt so not exactly the same core.  The 2000 Spurs were the 4th seed, and lost to the 5th seed Suns that had the same record as them. 

Now sure a couple of those Spurs and Mavs teams were very good and got majorly upset in the 1st round, but as shown above that wasn't the case for most of those teams. 

And of course the other side of that equation is those teams, by and large, were all making the Conference Finals as upper 50's or 60+ win teams.  That wasn't the case with Boston.  Boston overachieved in the playoffs quite a bit based on its regular season record. 

I also didn't mention other teams like the 15 Rockets that won 56 games and made the WCF, and then turned into a 41 win team 8th seed and 1st round loser in 16 (they lost to the Warriors both times).  The Thunder won 59 games and the WCF in 14 and didn't even make the playoffs as a 45 win team in 15, though Durant did miss a bunch of time in 15.  The 10 Magic were in the ECF, and then were the 4th seed and a 1st round exit in 11 (though they did have quite a few more wins than the 5th seeded Hawks, so that was obviously an upset). 

Again it happens a lot more than you realize. 

[Celtics2021]

I think it happens more than you realize.

I'm not just talking about going to the conference finals or further in one season and then losing in Round 1.  That is a pretty common thing.

You've listed a bunch of examples where teams still win 50+ games and get HCA, but have a disappointing Round 1 in a tough Western Conference.

That's quite a different scenario than this Celtics team.

Portland didn't win 50+ games and get HCA.  They were the 8th seed with a losing record. 

The 07 Heat won 44 games and had the 5th best record in the EC. 

The Mavericks in 12 were the 7th seed at 36-30 (44-45 win pace).  The 04 Mavs did win 52 games, but were the 5th seed when they flamed out. 

The 18 Spurs were the 7th seed, though that was the year Kawhi got hurt so not exactly the same core.  The 2000 Spurs were the 4th seed, and lost to the 5th seed Suns that had the same record as them. 

Now sure a couple of those Spurs and Mavs teams were very good and got majorly upset in the 1st round, but as shown above that wasn't the case for most of those teams. 

And of course the other side of that equation is those teams, by and large, were all making the Conference Finals as upper 50's or 60+ win teams.  That wasn't the case with Boston.  Boston overachieved in the playoffs quite a bit based on its regular season record.

I also didn't mention other teams like the 15 Rockets that won 56 games and made the WCF, and then turned into a 41 win team 8th seed and 1st round loser in 16 (they lost to the Warriors both times).  The Thunder won 59 games and the WCF in 14 and didn't even make the playoffs as a 45 win team in 15, though Durant did miss a bunch of time in 15.  The 10 Magic were in the ECF, and then were the 4th seed and a 1st round exit in 11 (though they did have quite a few more wins than the 5th seeded Hawks, so that was obviously an upset). 

Again it happens a lot more than you realize.

Boston was a 55-win team by winning percentage if they played 82 games last year, and was the 3-seed, with the 3rd-best net rating in the NBA.  To get to the conference finals was not a given (it rarely is), but it was certainly not an overachievement.

[nickagneta]

When was the last time a team fizzled out in Round 1 as a bottom seed after making it to the ECF the season previous, despite having all the core players from the previous playoff run still on the roster?

OK yes, they are missing Theis now.  Fair point.

But do you think the team would be in a majorly different position right now if they'd kept Theis?

I think he is saying the Celtics also didn't have Hayward this year as well. That was kinda a huge loss.

[PhoSita]

When was the last time a team fizzled out in Round 1 as a bottom seed after making it to the ECF the season previous, despite having all the core players from the previous playoff run still on the roster?

OK yes, they are missing Theis now.  Fair point.

But do you think the team would be in a majorly different position right now if they'd kept Theis?

I think he is saying the Celtics also didn't have Hayward this year as well. That was kinda a huge loss.

Hayward was not a part of the playoff run in any meaningful or helpful way, so it doesn't really fit what I had said about returning all the key players from the previous playoffs.

[Roy H.]

When was the last time a team fizzled out in Round 1 as a bottom seed after making it to the ECF the season previous, despite having all the core players from the previous playoff run still on the roster?

OK yes, they are missing Theis now.  Fair point.

But do you think the team would be in a majorly different position right now if they'd kept Theis?

I think he is saying the Celtics also didn't have Hayward this year as well. That was kinda a huge loss.

Hayward was not a part of the playoff run in any meaningful or helpful way, so it doesn't really fit what I had said about returning all the key players from the previous playoffs.

Right. You’re intentionally ignoring the fact that Hayward helped us have a very good regular season, which intern got us an easier draw in the playoffs.

And, a lot of that playoff run was fools gold.  We beat a lower seed, but closed the playoffs going 4-7.  It’s not like we didn’t miss Hayward.

[PhoSita]

Right. You’re intentionally ignoring the fact that Hayward helped us have a very good regular season, which intern got us an easier draw in the playoffs.

And, a lot of that playoff run was fools gold.  We beat a lower seed, but closed the playoffs going 4-7.  It’s not like we didn’t miss Hayward.

I don't regard the win over Toronto as fool's gold.

I'm also unwilling to write off the sweep of Philly given that Embiid played all of those games.  It's kind of nonsensical to look at Philly now as this great team and Embiid as this MVP caliber monster, but also say that sweeping a Sixers team that was missing Ben Simmons is not an accomplishment.  Different Sixers team, to be sure, but it's not an empty accomplishment. 

That Raptors team won 53 games (60 win pace) and had championship pedigree.

The Heat series was rough, but it really came down to late game execution.  The Celtics were not actually that far off from being able to win that series, they just needed to execute better in late game.


Writing off last season's playoff run feels like revisionist history to me.


You are correct that Hayward helped the team in the regular season, although he only played 52 games.  The Celts were very good for most of last season, even when Hayward was not playing (though he certainly made them better) and they notched some significant victories in that playoff run.  It was not a fluke.

[Roy H.]

It was not a fluke.

It wasn't a sign that they were a contender, either.  This year's team is probably closer to last year's team than last year's team was to being a championship team.