The Celtics' Luxury Tax Dilemma

[PhoSita]

This is why it's so important for Tatum NOT to make All-NBA this season. That $28.1M you cited balloons up to over $34M next season if he does (or something in that range. Total of 5-yr contract goes from $163M to $195M).

We received some good news on that front this week with it being announced that Embiid is now eligible to make All-NBA as a Forward. Weirdly enough, though, Tatum is now eligible at Guard (that shouldn't make a difference). If it weren't for the injuries to KD, AD, and Lebron, he definitely wouldn't make it. But now he is in that grouping of players (Lebron, Zion, Randle, Butler, George) that may or may not make it. It might all come down to team seedings.

How perverse to have to hope our best player doesn't make All NBA

If him making the all NBA team hurts the teams ability to upgrade or re-sign players, I hope he doesn’t make it this year. Care about the team winning now and in the future over individual accolades.

I totally get it, I just think that dynamic stinks. Bonuses like that shouldn't count against the cap. Fans should never feel like it makes sense to root against a player earning bonuses like that.

[PhoSita]

I think it must be pointed out as well that Boston is neither New York nor the SF Bay.  Those are much larger markets.

We’re #5 in valuation.  Our profits are quite impressive.  For perspective, the Celts earned more from 2017 to 2020 than the Heat have since 2008 (by $40 million)!

Well I hope you're right and Wyc is willing to pay a hefty tax to fill out this roster. He better be ready to spend more than he's ever spent on this team if the roster is going to be any better next year.

[Roy H.]

I think it must be pointed out as well that Boston is neither New York nor the SF Bay.  Those are much larger markets.

We’re #5 in valuation.  Our profits are quite impressive.  For perspective, the Celts earned more from 2017 to 2020 than the Heat have since 2008 (by $40 million)!

Well I hope you're right and Wyc is willing to pay a hefty tax to fill out this roster. He better be ready to spend more than he's ever spent on this team if the roster is going to be any better next year.

I don’t know if he will.  If he doesn’t we shouldn’t just accept it and make excuses for him as fans, though.  The Celtics are extraordinarily profitable, much more so than the vast majority of NBA teams.  When the fans are paying unnecessarily high ticket prices, they should be p---ed if that’s not being reinvested into the team.

[jambr380]

This is why it's so important for Tatum NOT to make All-NBA this season. That $28.1M you cited balloons up to over $34M next season if he does (or something in that range. Total of 5-yr contract goes from $163M to $195M).

We received some good news on that front this week with it being announced that Embiid is now eligible to make All-NBA as a Forward. Weirdly enough, though, Tatum is now eligible at Guard (that shouldn't make a difference). If it weren't for the injuries to KD, AD, and Lebron, he definitely wouldn't make it. But now he is in that grouping of players (Lebron, Zion, Randle, Butler, George) that may or may not make it. It might all come down to team seedings.

How perverse to have to hope our best player doesn't make All NBA

If him making the all NBA team hurts the teams ability to upgrade or re-sign players, I hope he doesn’t make it this year. Care about the team winning now and in the future over individual accolades.

I totally get it, I just think that dynamic stinks. Bonuses like that shouldn't count against the cap. Fans should never feel like it makes sense to root against a player earning bonuses like that.

Absolutely true. I think most people would have been just fine with Tatum tearing it up this year, solidifying himself as a top 5-10 player, and leading the Cs to a top 3 seed.

With that not happening, and Tatum only having a chance because better players have been injured, it seems best for him to just miss out and go into next year with his regular max contract. The all or nothing All-NBA clause was a foolish thing for Ainge to give out anyway. Most of the time, guys coming off of their rookie contracts who make All-NBA 3rd Team get 26%, not 30%. 30% should be reserved for 1st Team honors.

[wikkid1]

This is why it's so important for Tatum NOT to make All-NBA this season. That $28.1M you cited balloons up to over $34M next season if he does (or something in that range. Total of 5-yr contract goes from $163M to $195M).

We received some good news on that front this week with it being announced that Embiid is now eligible to make All-NBA as a Forward. Weirdly enough, though, Tatum is now eligible at Guard (that shouldn't make a difference). If it weren't for the injuries to KD, AD, and Lebron, he definitely wouldn't make it. But now he is in that grouping of players (Lebron, Zion, Randle, Butler, George) that may or may not make it. It might all come down to team seedings.

How perverse to have to hope our best player doesn't make All NBA

If him making the all NBA team hurts the teams ability to upgrade or re-sign players, I hope he doesn’t make it this year. Care about the team winning now and in the future over individual accolades.

Exactly.  It’s not like Tatum is going to be struggling to put food on the table either way.  He’s made/is going to make enough money to last his family for at least a couple generations.

[Celtics4ever]

Earlier I thought it would be dicey for him to make it after the 6o point game I think he is a lock to make it.

[Walker Wiggle]

This is a great post. Bernardoni-esque, if you will.

Fans are under appreciating this dynamic. The Celtics can not keep "running it back". It's easy to just roll your eyes and say "It's just Wyc's money" but the reality is that the *repeater* tax is what is a killer. The owners will be spending MULTIPLES of whatever they would be over the tax line, if they are in fact over the line for multiple years. None of us, no matter how rich, are stupid enough to consent to such a thing for a non-contending team.

I really sense this is a pivotal offseason for the team. I think Ainge is going to seek to do one of the following to simultaneously clean up the future salary landscape and improve the team:

1) trade Kemba's last two years (helps that he's been playing like an all-star again of late) for a legit super-star to pair with Tatum and Brown. Let Fournier walk, or try and sign him and be over the tax if you believe you've vaulted yourself into contention.

2) offload Kemba's last two years for picks, if you can pull it off, to be used down the line to trade for a superstar. You'll be under the tax with contracts you can still aggregate up to a max contract (Smart/Fournier/Thompson/etc.)

3) try to sign and trade Fournier for anything of value that can ultimately be used in the future to trade for a superstar.

4) trade Brown plus another contract (again, like Smart/Thompson/Fournier) plus whatever additional draft capital for a superstar. Again, go ahead and be over the tax; you'll be a contender.

5) trade younger guys and/or role players on the roster for future draft capital, again, with the idea of trading for a superstar.

In my opinion, the simplest thing to do is to trade Kemba into someone else's cap space. I don't think you'll need to attach picks to get this done; there will be a team out there who's interested in Kemba. Establish your identity as a switch-everything, gritty defensive team led by the Jays, and keep your options and your assets open for the next disgruntled superstar a la what the Nets pulled off with Harden this year.

[Kernewek]

Any time you are arguing for the players earning less money compared to the owners spending more money you are more or less admitting that you have no idea of the value of a large sum of money.

Roy's initial post is right on.

[SHAQATTACK]

I think it must be pointed out as well that Boston is neither New York nor the SF Bay.  Those are much larger markets.

We’re #5 in valuation.  Our profits are quite impressive.  For perspective, the Celts earned more from 2017 to 2020 than the Heat have since 2008 (by $40 million)!

Good ...let’s sign Anthony Davis out bid the Lakers for everybody ....be like the Yankees , buy who we need 

[hwangjini_1]

I think it must be pointed out as well that Boston is neither New York nor the SF Bay.  Those are much larger markets.

We’re #5 in valuation.  Our profits are quite impressive.  For perspective, the Celts earned more from 2017 to 2020 than the Heat have since 2008 (by $40 million)!

Well I hope you're right and Wyc is willing to pay a hefty tax to fill out this roster. He better be ready to spend more than he's ever spent on this team if the roster is going to be any better next year.

so far, wyc has never blinked at spending money when he thinks it is for a good team, a contender.

i also believe that wyc would blink, blanche, and ask questions on why he should spend that much money on an also-ran of a team.

unless ainge convinces him this team is a contender, wyc might understandably say "no" to going over the cap.

this upcoming playoff run may be the deciding factor.

[PhoSita]

Any time you are arguing for the players earning less money compared to the owners spending more money you are more or less admitting that you have no idea of the value of a large sum of money.

Roy's initial post is right on.

Honestly I've got no idea what this has to do with my post.

I'm all for the owners spending as much money as possible. I am not one iota concerned about Wyc's profit margins.

I'm also not naive about expecting NBA owners to spend freely when the salary cap and luxury tax framework gives them a limit on how much they can consider "reasonable." Just because it's funny money to us doesn't mean it is to them, and although I hope Wyc spends as much money on the team as possible, I don't expect it.

[PhoSita]

This is a great post. Bernardoni-esque, if you will.

All credit to Dangercart.  Basically all of the OP is based on things he's been saying. I can't take any credit for any novel ideas here.

[hwangjini_1]

This is a great post. Bernardoni-esque, if you will.
...

1) trade Kemba's last two years (helps that he's been playing like an all-star again of late) for a legit super-star to pair with Tatum and Brown. ...

2) offload Kemba's last two years for picks, if you can pull it off, to be used down the line to trade for a superstar. You'll be under the tax with contracts you can still aggregate up to a max contract (Smart/Fournier/Thompson/etc.)

...

4) trade Brown plus another contract (again, like Smart/Thompson/Fournier) plus whatever additional draft capital for a superstar. Again, go ahead and be over the tax; you'll be a contender.

...

In my opinion, the simplest thing to do is to trade Kemba into someone else's cap space. I don't think you'll need to attach picks to get this done; there will be a team out there who's interested in Kemba. ...

i am not sure all the suggested actions above are as simple as they may seem. so i have a few questions.

any suggestions on what teams would give up their superstars for kemba's salary bloat?

any team with salary space MIGHT take kemba, as the celtics once took on gerald wallace's horrific salary. but at what cost to the celtics? you seem to say that if the celtics simply ask a team with cap space to take kemba, they will do so.

do you have any suggestions on which teams would eat that salary and not require some sort of compensation?

which superstar specifically do you think the celtics would acquire for brown and add ons?

thank you.

[Kernewek]

Any time you are arguing for the players earning less money compared to the owners spending more money you are more or less admitting that you have no idea of the value of a large sum of money.

Roy's initial post is right on.

Honestly I've got no idea what this has to do with my post.

I'm all for the owners spending as much money as possible. I am not one iota concerned about Wyc's profit margins.

I'm also not naive about expecting NBA owners to spend freely when the salary cap and luxury tax framework gives them a limit on how much they can consider "reasonable." Just because it's funny money to us doesn't mean it is to them, and although I hope Wyc spends as much money on the team as possible, I don't expect it.

It’s less to do with the initial post and more to do with some of the ensuing commentary.

I understand the appeal of playing with excel sheets, so I understand threads like this, but I think the nature of the luxury tax is two-fold, and neither of those folds should excuse billionaires from tightening their purse strings.

In the most extreme examples, you wind up with situations like Houston, which are no good for anyone involved.

[footey]

Earlier I thought it would be dicey for him to make it after the 6o point game I think he is a lock to make it.

Bulls game should  make you reconsider, LOL.

Actually the Heat series will probably decide whether he or Butler gets that last forward spot.