Wow!! Forget basketball, hope he is okay first and foremost..I don’t blame him..question now is he a Hall Of Famer?
I don’t think so. He was paired with some really excellent teammates in his career, and was never able to do much more than put up a good individual stats.
I don't see him as HOFer either.
FWIW, his HOF probability index is .5089. Btw Dennis Johnson & Joe Johnson
I find this super interesting, if only because I was complaining about Bosh here the other day.
To me, Bosh and Aldridge are almost identical as far as production and impact goes. They can both get their numbers as a main guy, good enough to be a perennial All-Star, not good enough to be in the MVP debate or carry a team. Their career production is almost identical.
19.2 ppg, 8.5 rpg, 2.0 apg, 0.8 spg, 1.0 bpg, 20.6 PER, 106 WS, 31.1 VORP, 1.9 BPM
19.4 ppg, 8.2 rpg, 2.0 apg, 0.7 spg, 1.1 bpg, 20.7 PER, 112.6 WS, 32.6 VORP, 1.7 BPM
Yet one guy has a HOF probability of 99.5% and the other has 50.9%.
Is Bosh really that much better than Aldridge? I think Aldridge may have even been slightly better (debatable sure, they're in the same ball park at least). Strictly from an indivudual accolade perspective, I'd rather have the 7x All-Star, 5x All-NBA over the 11x All-Star, 1x All-NBA.
Just for fun we can play with the Hall of Fame calcs.
While Aldridge has 0 championships, I can see a world where he has a legit shot at 4 (this year with Brooklyn, and '17-'19 if Kawhi never gets injured and asks for a trade).
One championship, regardless of his role, boosts his HoF probability up +19%, 2 rings would be +33%. That's +33% even if he was the 15th man waiving a towel on Brooklyn the next 2 years.
Forget the championships, but what about All-Star games. Maybe he plays in the East and makes an All-Star game in 2017 over Paul Milsap. Maybe instead of coming up on a good Portland team from '09-'11 he gets traded for Bosh and plays on a weak Toronto team and so puts up big but empty stats and gets a few additional selections there.
+1 All Star selection = +23% HoF probability
+2 All Star selections = +38% HoF probability
+3 All Star selections = +45% HoF probability
And while I'm hating on Bosh. If we took away his 2 rings, he's still at 97.6%. Or if we took away 2 All-star selections, he's still at 96.3%. If we keep his production but give him Aldridge's rings and All-Star appearances he drops to 39.9%.
All-Star selection is the biggest driver and I hate it (All-NBA is better!), but I also understand this is an unofficial metric based on regression analysis and hopefully not actually used by the HoF committee. Now excuse me while I go yell at this cloud.
