The Financial Impact Of The Kemba Deal

[Roy H.]

Minor point but most first rounders sign at the allowed 120% of the set rookie scale. So about a half million difference each season you count that pick as savings. Like I said, minor.

The added flexibility and now solid center position makes me wonder if sign and trades are back on the table if Fournier goes elsewhere...regardless of why he would be going elsewhere.

I think that that number already has the 120% factored in?

[nickagneta]

Minor point but most first rounders sign at the allowed 120% of the set rookie scale. So about a half million difference each season you count that pick as savings. Like I said, minor.

The added flexibility and now solid center position makes me wonder if sign and trades are back on the table if Fournier goes elsewhere...regardless of why he would be going elsewhere.

I think that that number already has the 120% factored in?

This was my source:

https://basketball.realgm.com/nba/info/rookie_scale/2022

$2,678,900 was the scale. The extra 20% would be the $520,000 difference I mentioned. Source could be wrong.

[Celtics2021]

Do we get a $10M TPE out of this?  Actually, just saw on Spotrac, they are listing a $6.9M TPE from this trade.  So we have:

$9.8M    Non-Tax payer (probably reduces when we pay pass into the tax range)
$11.0M  What is left of Hayward  (Nov 2021)
$4.8M    Kanter  (Nov 2021)
$1.6M    Teague (probably useless)
$5.0M    Theis  (March 2022)
$6.9M    Kemba  (June 2022)

Not sure what any of these will get us.  Any ideas?

My guess is mostly speculation followed by disappointment on message boards.  I could be wrong though. I think the kemba move was mostly about long-term flexibility and expect them to let these expire.

Bingo.

The draft assets we could send another team are dwindling. Why does anybody send us a good role-playing vet? I guess we can trade our first round pick in 2022 and one of the young guys.

What do role-playing vets on expirings fetch on the trade market?  Seconds, at best?  Daniel Theis couldn’t even get that.

[CptZoogs]

Do we get a $10M TPE out of this?  Actually, just saw on Spotrac, they are listing a $6.9M TPE from this trade.  So we have:

$9.8M    Non-Tax payer (probably reduces when we pay pass into the tax range)
$11.0M  What is left of Hayward  (Nov 2021)
$4.8M    Kanter  (Nov 2021)
$1.6M    Teague (probably useless)
$5.0M    Theis  (March 2022)
$6.9M    Kemba  (June 2022)

Not sure what any of these will get us.  Any ideas?

My guess is mostly speculation followed by disappointment on message boards.  I could be wrong though. I think the kemba move was mostly about long-term flexibility and expect them to let these expire.

Bingo.

The draft assets we could send another team are dwindling. Why does anybody send us a good role-playing vet? I guess we can trade our first round pick in 2022 and one of the young guys.

What do role-playing vets on expirings fetch on the trade market?  Seconds, at best?  Daniel Theis couldn’t even get that.

Landry Shamet and Luke Kennard went for 1sts in the late teens.  I think a lot depends on timing/needs.  Theis is now a free agent and can walk.

[Roy H.]

Minor point but most first rounders sign at the allowed 120% of the set rookie scale. So about a half million difference each season you count that pick as savings. Like I said, minor.

The added flexibility and now solid center position makes me wonder if sign and trades are back on the table if Fournier goes elsewhere...regardless of why he would be going elsewhere.

I think that that number already has the 120% factored in?

This was my source:

https://basketball.realgm.com/nba/info/rookie_scale/2022

$2,678,900 was the scale. The extra 20% would be the $520,000 difference I mentioned. Source could be wrong.

I think you’re right.  I had read that the real GM numbers had built the 20% in, but if that were ever true, it no longer seems to be the case.

[footey]

I think a team like Charlotte or Dallas would be willing to take on Tristan Thompson for a 2nd rounder. We may have to wait a while for that shoe to drop, though.

Would love to get an early 2nd round pick for him in this coming draft, as there is some talent to be had, and someone good and experienced could slip to 2nd round. 

[Celtics2021]

Do we get a $10M TPE out of this?  Actually, just saw on Spotrac, they are listing a $6.9M TPE from this trade.  So we have:

$9.8M    Non-Tax payer (probably reduces when we pay pass into the tax range)
$11.0M  What is left of Hayward  (Nov 2021)
$4.8M    Kanter  (Nov 2021)
$1.6M    Teague (probably useless)
$5.0M    Theis  (March 2022)
$6.9M    Kemba  (June 2022)

Not sure what any of these will get us.  Any ideas?

My guess is mostly speculation followed by disappointment on message boards.  I could be wrong though. I think the kemba move was mostly about long-term flexibility and expect them to let these expire.

Bingo.

The draft assets we could send another team are dwindling. Why does anybody send us a good role-playing vet? I guess we can trade our first round pick in 2022 and one of the young guys.

What do role-playing vets on expirings fetch on the trade market?  Seconds, at best?  Daniel Theis couldn’t even get that.

Landry Shamet and Luke Kennard went for 1sts in the late teens.  I think a lot depends on timing/needs.  Theis is now a free agent and can walk.

Those were guys on rookie deals, not vets.  The equivalent of TimeLord and Romeo Langford — their salaries were low, they could fit into a rotation, they had potential upside, and they were cost controllable for years.  Not the same thing as a vet on mid-level type expiring deals.

[Csfan1984]

So keeping Kemba meant near max FA money in 2023 if they don't make more signings. With Al, if team knows a guy wants to sign here in 2022 FA they can stretch Al to afford a near max player a year sooner.

JT 30.35
JB 28.75
Al stretch 4.85
Nesmith 3.8
PP 2.24
Langford? 5.6 (May be dealt or not picked up)
Grant? 4.3 (Probably not picked up)
Moses 1.8
2021+2022nds? 2.2 est
2022 1st? 2.8 est

Total is roughly 77 to 87 million depending on if they pick up Langford and Grant (assuming that they also keep current picks).

Cap 2022 expected 115.5-77= $38.5 million.

[ozgod]

Salary Out:

Kemba:  $36,016,200    $37,653,300
16th pick: $2,678,900   $2,812,900   $2,947,000

Salary In:

Horford: $27,000,000    $26,500,000*
Brown: $1,701,593    $1,846,738    $1,997,718

* Partially guaranteed at $14,500,000.  Becomes fully guaranteed if Celtics win championship, or $19.5 million guaranteed if the Celtics make the Finals

Net:

2022:  $38,695,100 - $28,701,593 = $9,993,507
2023:  $40,466,200 - $27,847,238 = $12,618,962

If Hoopshype is correct, this drops our total payroll next season to $122,084,120.

The 2021-2022 salary cap is projected at $112 million, and the luxury tax is $136.6 million.

That puts us about $14.6 million below the tax, with Fournier as the only key unsigned free agent (with Kornet also a free agent).

Hopefully we can trade Thompson to add even further flexibility.

This is the most important part of this deal in my opinion. Gives us more room to move.