Doug McDermott Comparison/Projection

[hwangjini_1]

Just like the Marcus Smart Comparison thread, I must admit that I haven't really seen him play, and though I hate to say it, for his sake, the guy has bust written all over him imho.  Who can he guard?  He doesn't look like much of a passer or rebounder, nor can he create his own shot.  I know he scored a ton of points in college in an almost Pete and Press Maravich style program (the offense revolves around him), but that's not going to be the case in the NBA. Am I missing something with this guy?  What does everyone think of him and his potential, or lack thereof, as the case may be?  If we're comparing mid-major talent, I'd think that Elfrid Payton certainly has much better upside.

Oh, and I\if you haven't already visited the thread entitled 'Calling All Music Lovers', http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=70754.0, I'd encourage you to do so.  Wait until you hear her sing!

It was the opposite actually, he had far less efficient shots and was forced to shoot a lot of bail out jumpshots in Okla' state's offense. He will attack the basket far more in the NBA and attempt to get to the free throw line.
He's also one of the best defenders for his position in the draft too.

You need to watch more.

Dougie Mac has far more bust potential than Smart as a general consensus.

chambers....you make some good and interesting posts as the norm, so i need to ask you to expand on your statement above...honestly, it seems to run counter to common-knowledge.

i think of mcdermott as someone who will be a very good nba player, possibly in the mold of wally szczerbiak. lots of points, gives you a ton of options on offense, and a credible defender within the correct system. a good pick in the 10-12 range.

but, you assert that he is one of the best defenders in the draft for his position. please elaborate.  really. i would like to read your thoughts on his defensive abilities.

thanks.

[BudweiserCeltic]

Just like the Marcus Smart Comparison thread, I must admit that I haven't really seen him play, and though I hate to say it, for his sake, the guy has bust written all over him imho.  Who can he guard?  He doesn't look like much of a passer or rebounder, nor can he create his own shot.  I know he scored a ton of points in college in an almost Pete and Press Maravich style program (the offense revolves around him), but that's not going to be the case in the NBA. Am I missing something with this guy?  What does everyone think of him and his potential, or lack thereof, as the case may be?  If we're comparing mid-major talent, I'd think that Elfrid Payton certainly has much better upside.

Oh, and I\if you haven't already visited the thread entitled 'Calling All Music Lovers', http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=70754.0, I'd encourage you to do so.  Wait until you hear her sing!

It was the opposite actually, he had far less efficient shots and was forced to shoot a lot of bail out jumpshots in Okla' state's offense. He will attack the basket far more in the NBA and attempt to get to the free throw line.
He's also one of the best defenders for his position in the draft too.

You need to watch more.

Dougie Mac has far more bust potential than Smart as a general consensus.

chambers....you make some good and interesting posts as the norm, so i need to ask you to expand on your statement above...honestly, it seems to run counter to common-knowledge.

i think of mcdermott as someone who will be a very good nba player, possibly in the mold of wally szczerbiak. lots of points, gives you a ton of options on offense, and a credible defender within the correct system. a good pick in the 10-12 range.

but, you assert that he is one of the best defenders in the draft for his position. please elaborate.  really. i would like to read your thoughts on his defensive abilities.

thanks.

He's referring to Marcus Smart's defense.

[dreamgreen]

I don't watch a lot of college basketball, but I did see him play 3-4 times this year and was very impressed with his scoring ability and he rebounded much better than I would have thought. I'd be happy with him if Danny thinks he's the pick. The kid can flat out put the ball in the basket and he may be the type that excels in Stevens system.

[hwangjini_1]

Just like the Marcus Smart Comparison thread, I must admit that I haven't really seen him play, and though I hate to say it, for his sake, the guy has bust written all over him imho.  Who can he guard?  He doesn't look like much of a passer or rebounder, nor can he create his own shot.  I know he scored a ton of points in college in an almost Pete and Press Maravich style program (the offense revolves around him), but that's not going to be the case in the NBA. Am I missing something with this guy?  What does everyone think of him and his potential, or lack thereof, as the case may be?  If we're comparing mid-major talent, I'd think that Elfrid Payton certainly has much better upside.

Oh, and I\if you haven't already visited the thread entitled 'Calling All Music Lovers', http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=70754.0, I'd encourage you to do so.  Wait until you hear her sing!

It was the opposite actually, he had far less efficient shots and was forced to shoot a lot of bail out jumpshots in Okla' state's offense. He will attack the basket far more in the NBA and attempt to get to the free throw line.
He's also one of the best defenders for his position in the draft too.

You need to watch more.

Dougie Mac has far more bust potential than Smart as a general consensus.

chambers....you make some good and interesting posts as the norm, so i need to ask you to expand on your statement above...honestly, it seems to run counter to common-knowledge.

i think of mcdermott as someone who will be a very good nba player, possibly in the mold of wally szczerbiak. lots of points, gives you a ton of options on offense, and a credible defender within the correct system. a good pick in the 10-12 range.

but, you assert that he is one of the best defenders in the draft for his position. please elaborate.  really. i would like to read your thoughts on his defensive abilities.

thanks.

He's referring to Marcus Smart's defense.

ah, my mistake. thanks for clearing that up.

nevermind. 

[mmmmm]

If you want to think up good comps to put McDermott's NBA potential into context, you're better off focussing on the fact that is already staring you in the face. If McDermott has been doing it for four years and no one pushed him to declare before, the odds are he doesn't have a bright NBA future. Four-year college guys who stick in the NBA these days usually become deep-bench bigs or shooting specialists (Reddick, Courtney Lee, Hansborough, Korver, Plumlee).

Sweeping generalizations are the theme in this thread so far.  How about instead, looking at the details of the particular player?

McDermott (a) has never been in need of scoring a big paycheck early because his family is financially sound and (b) his father has been his coach and probably most influential advisor.   

He has probably had very little pressure to declare and, indeed, more pressure to actually fulfill his academic goals.

So that sweeping generalization about good players coming out early is fine, but probably doesn't apply in McDermott's case.

If you actually look at his game in detail you probably will find most other such sweeping comparisons also fail.

[colincb]

Don't agreed with your post (or the one you're responding to either).  Your comps are very weak.  This is a strong draft and everyone and their mother has McDermott in the lottery. You're comparing him to people that didn't get past Portsmouth and second rounders. His game's not similar either. Gomes was the best of that crop and I saw a lot of both and there's no comparison as to offensive talent or their games.

Managed to lead the country in scoring AND shoot an elite total shooting percentage too.

I'm comparing him to the other recent players who also dominated the MVC and Big East conferences over 4-year careers. My point is that the level of competition and the four-year-man element are probably stronger indicators (in the negative direction) than his whiteness or his lack of athleticism.

I'm giving you collegiate comps. You guys want prospect-comps, not college-career comps. I get that.

I think you'd have a more sensible perspective, though, if you realized that the reason there aren't good prospect comps for McDermott is because guys with his profile generally aren't even prospects, despite their huge trophy cases.

Maybe you need to rethink his valuation in a much stronger than average draft class then.  None of your comps made it out of the second round.  Your view of him and what the consensus market valuation of him are vastly different.  One is wrong and it's likely you.  Doesn't mean he won't bust, but he's got a rare ability to score at a very efficient level and he's not easy to defend either.

[NorthernLightning]

I think he'll be a slightly higher scoring Wally Szerbiak. That's a pretty darn good player.

[CM0]

If you want to think up good comps to put McDermott's NBA potential into context, you're better off focussing on the fact that is already staring you in the face. If McDermott has been doing it for four years and no one pushed him to declare before, the odds are he doesn't have a bright NBA future. Four-year college guys who stick in the NBA these days usually become deep-bench bigs or shooting specialists (Reddick, Courtney Lee, Hansborough, Korver, Plumlee).

Sweeping generalizations are the theme in this thread so far.  How about instead, looking at the details of the particular player?

McDermott (a) has never been in need of scoring a big paycheck early because his family is financially sound and (b) his father has been his coach and probably most influential advisor.   

He has probably had very little pressure to declare and, indeed, more pressure to actually fulfill his academic goals.

So that sweeping generalization about good players coming out early is fine, but probably doesn't apply in McDermott's case.

If you actually look at his game in detail you probably will find most other such sweeping comparisons also fail.

I actually think McDermott is a pretty safe pick and has a pretty high floor. His has added something new to his offensive repertoire every single year, has a high BB IQ, and he isn't limited athletically like many of the comparisons/stereotypes. Going by his combine numbers, he's actually an above-average NBA athlete. He'll never be an elite defender but he's a sufficient team defender and he can likely develop into an average or only slightly below-average on-ball defender at the three.

Not buying that he can't create his own shot in the NBA, especially given his decent height at the 3 position. Even if cn't learn to consistently create his own shot, he's so deadly on the catch and shoot and good enough with his handle and straight-line drives that he should be considered a safe bet to become a quality NBA role-player at worst.

[CM0]

Here's a good take:

"sleep easy, McDermott is not Morrison 2.0.

Everyone knows McDermott can score the ball, so I'm not going to bore you with percentages but rather look at little things within his game which people may not know.

McDermott is an elite shooter, probably the best in the draft ahead of Nik Stauskas, due to his lightning quick release and ability to be efficient shooting the ball all over the floor. On the perimeter, he has the ability to hit spot-up threes or take them off the dribble. A lot of teams switched on the screens when guarding McDermott -- bad idea. Doug has a fantastic basketball IQ. When a smaller player was switched onto him, McDermott would take them down into the post where he used his elegant footwork to get to the basket or (dare I say it) a one legged Dirk Nowitzki-like fade away.

Defensively is where you start to find questions. He is perceived to be your stereotypical white college kid: slow and not very athletic. However, is this a misconception?

Draft Express ranked McDermott as the 15th best athlete in the draft after his combine results. His max vertical was 36.5 inches -- that is better than the likes of J.R. Smith, Anthony Randolph and Charlotte's very own Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. His lane agility score was better than Andre Iguodala, Gerald Green and Jimmy Butler. His standing reach is longer than Gordon Hayward, DeMar DeRozan and Maurice Harkless. Now, personally, I don't treat these stats as the end-all, be-all of everything, but it just goes to show he is more athletic than the majority of people think.

One very worrying part of McDermott's game is his historically low steal (0.2) and block rate (0.1). There is virtually no successful NBA player who had such poor statistics at the college level, a worrying stat indeed.

One theory I have is McDermott was so important to his Creighton team that he didn't go for steals or blocks, in the risk of getting in foul trouble. I think that may be part of it, but still those stats are unacceptable. If McDermott wants to see the floor at the NBA level, he will have to learn to be effective on the defensive end of the floor.

Overall, McDermott has proven himself every time.

Last summer he practiced with the USA Select team (interestingly with MKG and Kemba Walker) and according to NBA Draft scout Ed Isaacson -- who attended the event -- McDermott "more than held his own." When moving to the Big East this year in a conference re-shuffle, he came up against tougher competition and was able to increase his production, this should help answer some of the questions about the level of McDermott's competition."

Source: http://www.atthehive.com/2014/6/14/5808796/at-the-hive-9th-pick-tournament-round-one-4-dario-saric-vs-5-doug

[Beat LA]

I must admit that I haven't really seen him play, and though I hate to say it, for his sake, the guy has bust written all over him imho. 

Well, now.  That's a compelling argument there.

(And how is your saying this, "for his sake"?)

Well, I've watched a few Youtube highlights and the draftexpress scouting report video, but I really didn't watch a lot of college basketball this past year, so I'm just trying to state that it's not like I'm an uber-Creighton fan who has seen all of McDermott's games.  I don't know too much about the guy, so the idea of this thread was to see who people think he can be at the next level, which brings me to my next point.  When I said 'for his sake', all I meant by that is that I want all of these guys to succeed.  I'm not rooting for anyone to fail, not that anyone else does that.  I'm just hoping that his perceived lack of athleticism won't turn him into a bust by not being able to guard anyone.  Quickness isn't everything though.  Does anyone know if he has quick hands, because that can certainly help his cause defensively.  Chris Mullin looked like he was always running in mud, but his lightning-quick reflexes helped him defensively, especially in steals, although he was still a liability for the most part; and it's you're, not your, btw.  What is this facebook, haha?

[Beat LA]

Just like the Marcus Smart Comparison thread, I must admit that I haven't really seen him play, and though I hate to say it, for his sake, the guy has bust written all over him imho.  Who can he guard?  He doesn't look like much of a passer or rebounder, nor can he create his own shot.  I know he scored a ton of points in college in an almost Pete and Press Maravich style program (the offense revolves around him), but that's not going to be the case in the NBA. Am I missing something with this guy?  What does everyone think of him and his potential, or lack thereof, as the case may be?  If we're comparing mid-major talent, I'd think that Elfrid Payton certainly has much better upside.

Oh, and I\if you haven't already visited the thread entitled 'Calling All Music Lovers', http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=70754.0, I'd encourage you to do so.  Wait until you hear her sing!

It was the opposite actually, he had far less efficient shots and was forced to shoot a lot of bail out jumpshots in Okla' state's offense. He will attack the basket far more in the NBA and attempt to get to the free throw line.
He's also one of the best defenders for his position in the draft too.

You need to watch more.

Dougie Mac has far more bust potential than Smart as a general consensus.

Um, I think you may have misunderstood what I said.  I was just trying to say that, like Marcus Smart, I haven't seen McDermott play, Youtube aside, so I was looking to see what people with more knowledge of the Creighton star thought of him and his upside.  I've seen a number of people compare him to Wally, which isn't necessarily a bad thing.  Someone also said that he might be a combination of Antawn Jamison and Wally, in that they're both very talented offensively, but are liabilities on defense.  Of course, Jamison is taller, more athletic, and a much better rebounder, but there are similarities in terms of scoring ability.

Bottom line, I was referencing Doug McDermott, not Marcus Smart, when I wrote the stuff about how Doug was the focal point of a Pete and Press Maravich type of situation/system.  Sorry for the confusion.  No big deal 

[MBunge]

If you want to think up good comps to put McDermott's NBA potential into context, you're better off focussing on the fact that is already staring you in the face. If McDermott has been doing it for four years and no one pushed him to declare before, the odds are he doesn't have a bright NBA future. Four-year college guys who stick in the NBA these days usually become deep-bench bigs or shooting specialists (Reddick, Courtney Lee, Hansborough, Korver, Plumlee).

That's just stupid.  When guys leave college early, 99% of the time it's because of money.  That's not an issue for McDermott.

Mike

I don't follow, but I can be a little stupid so please spell it out for me. Are you saying that Doug McDermott doesn't like money? Are you just saying that, absent a pressing financial need, he didn't have dreams of playing in the NBA that would have motivated him to leave college? Something else?

McDermott's dad has been making good money as a D1 college coach for many years, so there is no financial need for him to go pro early.  He also played for his dad in college and leaving early would obviously have hurt his dad's program.  Both pretty clearly explain why McDermott probably didn't feel any great need to go pro early.

Now, if NBA people had been telling McDermott that he was going to be a top 3 pick in previous drafts, that might have changed his mind.  But in previous drafts, McDermott was being projected as a late first rounder at best.  So, at worst, all McDermott staying in school proved is that NBA scouts didn't like him.  But...

1.  They've changed their minds and, in what people are calling one if the best drafts in a decade, McDermott is now expected in most mocks to go top 10 or close to it.

2.  Those same "experts" have been wrong so many times that it is a wonder any of them still have jobs.

McDemott could be a bust.  Staying in school for 4 years doesn't prove or indicate anything about that one way or another.

Mike

[JBcat]

In the games I've seen him play I have been very impressed.  I wouldn't be opposed to trading down drafting the kid, and picking up another asset if Ainge thought it was best.

[Emmette Bryant]

I'd say he's a poor man's Jeff Judkins.

[slamtheking]

I think his best case is Kyle Korver that can also shoot on the move.  nice shooter to have coming off the bench but I think he'll have a lot of trouble on D