Trade Idea: BOS/ORL/LAL

[action781]

I feel that a Bynum-Dwight swap is too logical for both franchises to not happen.  The roadblock is that LAL won't give up Bynum + Pau (too much value), but Orlando doesn't want to give up Dwight for solely Bynum (not enough value).  So, I thought the only way around this was if Pau is included in a deal to a 3rd team but they also get back a quality PF to replace Pau (that is of slightly lesser value than Pau).  This is what I came up with:

Boston trades:  KG, LAC 1st rounder
Boston gets:  Pau

LAL trades:  Bynum, Pau, Ebanks, 1st rounder
LAL gets:  Dwight, KG

Orlando trades:  Dwight
Orlando gets:  Bynum, Ebanks, LAC 1st rounder, LAL 1st rounder

http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=7d5ma6d

Angles of positivity:
-Pau has been struggling in Mike Brown's new LAL offense
-Dwight no longer has gripes about being 3rd offensive option
-LAL becomes dominant defensively at the 2-5 positions
-This trade absolutely improves Boston talent-wise
-Orlando's best alternative option is to wait until the trade deadline and accept similar version of this trade without the LAC draft pick included

Where people will disagree:
-Stubborn (and illogical) refusal to trade with LAL period
-Stubborn and illogical refusal trade away KG for Pau when Pau is a clearly better player right now and still has something left in the tank going forward
-Refusal to assist LAL in getting Dwight (somewhat understandable, but I'd rather him go anywhere West than somewhere East)
-Unwillingness to make LAL better (very understandable)
-Delays the rebuilding phase (which I personally WANT to delay)

I'd like to hear your thoughts.  Any team that you think doesn't want to do this?  Should LAL even need to include a draft pick?

[action781]

What's very weird about trade machine... is that Boston only swaps KG (PER 18.9) for Pau (PER 20.6), but it projects that Boston's win total will be -3 after this trade.  Same position for each player too.  Does it account for team chemistry?  Haha, strange.

[wdleehi]

No.


Why end the chance that Howard could come to Boston?


The difference in KG and Gasol at this point is not that great.



Celtic's GM that help the Lakers win do not last long.  

[Moranis]

I am not a fan of that trade as I don't think it gets a title this year or in the next few and would only delay rebuilding.

[action781]

I am not a fan of that trade as I don't think it gets a title this year or in the next few and would only delay rebuilding.

So, if this trade doesn't get us a title this year, I assume you don't think we would get one with KG, correct?  And if this delays rebuilding, then presumably holding on to our big 3 is also delaying rebuilding?  So, do you believe we should trade away our big 3 this season?

[wdleehi]

I am not a fan of that trade as I don't think it gets a title this year or in the next few and would only delay rebuilding.

So, if this trade doesn't get us a title this year, I assume you don't think we would get one with KG, correct?  And if this delays rebuilding, then presumably holding on to our big 3 is also delaying rebuilding?  So, do you believe we should trade away our big 3 this season?

If there was an actual good rebuilding trade for one of the three star, yes.


But the Celtics are not going to get those type of offers. 

[Who]

It's an interesting idea. Might need a few more sweeteners from Boston's end though.

I would be very happy to build around Rondo, Pierce and Pau for the next 3+ years. That would be a formidable core to work with and the team would retain the bird rights to key free agents like Bass, Ray and Jeff Green. I'd be very happy to watch that team play for a few years. Happily delay rebuilding for that squad.

[action781]

No.


Why end the chance that Howard could come to Boston?


The difference in KG and Gasol at this point is not that great.



Celtic's GM that help the Lakers win do not last long.  

I'd definitely agree with that if I felt there was a good chance (even as low as 25%) that Howard would come to Boston. 

But I feel that there is at least a 50% chance that Dwight gets traded by the trade deadline (to LAL or NJ).  Then, considering the 50% chance that Dwight does make it to FA, I wouldn't put us at a 50% conditional chance to land Dwight... more like 20%... which leaves us at (in my opinion) at a max of 10% overall chance to land Dwight.  Those aren't good odds.  I'll take the guarantee of Pau.

Who says that LAL definitely makes it out of the West with that team anyways?  They will still have to go through OKC who has Westbrook (a nightmare for any of LALs PG), Durant (who can easily produce equal to Kobe), and Perkins to defend Dwight.  Pretty evenly matched teams.

[wdleehi]

No.


Why end the chance that Howard could come to Boston?


The difference in KG and Gasol at this point is not that great.



Celtic's GM that help the Lakers win do not last long.  

I'd definitely agree with that if I felt there was a good chance (even as low as 25%) that Howard would come to Boston. 

But I feel that there is at least a 50% chance that Dwight gets traded by the trade deadline (to LAL or NJ).  Then, considering the 50% chance that Dwight does make it to FA, I wouldn't put us at a 50% conditional chance to land Dwight... more like 20%... which leaves us at (in my opinion) at a max of 10% overall chance to land Dwight.  Those aren't good odds.  I'll take the guarantee of Pau.

Who says that LAL definitely makes it out of the West with that team anyways?  They will still have to go through OKC who has Westbrook (a nightmare for any of LALs PG), Durant (who can easily produce equal to Kobe), and Perkins to defend Dwight.  Pretty evenly matched teams.

Gasol doesn't push this team to a higher level. 

It keeps the Celtics exactly where they are.  Except without the ability to start the rebuilding.




Why? 

[action781]

It's an interesting idea. Might need a few more sweeteners from Boston's end though.

I would be very happy to build around Rondo, Pierce and Pau for the next 3+ years. That would be a formidable core to work with and the team would retain the bird rights to key free agents like Bass, Ray and Jeff Green. I'd be very happy to watch that team play for a few years. Happily delay rebuilding for that squad.

I loathe the idea of rebuilding.  I'm OK with 50 win teams with a small chance at a title for a few years.  Maybe catch some luck like the Mavs did this past season.  And who knows... maybe you strike gold with a late draft pick in those seasons and the rebuilding is seemless instead of having to go through years like '03-'07.

[action781]

No.


Why end the chance that Howard could come to Boston?


The difference in KG and Gasol at this point is not that great.



Celtic's GM that help the Lakers win do not last long.  

I'd definitely agree with that if I felt there was a good chance (even as low as 25%) that Howard would come to Boston.  

But I feel that there is at least a 50% chance that Dwight gets traded by the trade deadline (to LAL or NJ).  Then, considering the 50% chance that Dwight does make it to FA, I wouldn't put us at a 50% conditional chance to land Dwight... more like 20%... which leaves us at (in my opinion) at a max of 10% overall chance to land Dwight.  Those aren't good odds.  I'll take the guarantee of Pau.

Who says that LAL definitely makes it out of the West with that team anyways?  They will still have to go through OKC who has Westbrook (a nightmare for any of LALs PG), Durant (who can easily produce equal to Kobe), and Perkins to defend Dwight.  Pretty evenly matched teams.

Gasol doesn't push this team to a higher level.  

It keeps the Celtics exactly where they are.  Except without the ability to start the rebuilding.




Why?  

I guess I disagree that Gasol wouldn't push this team to a higher level.  He's much better offensively than KG is.  Pau is a player who you can isolate on 90% of the NBA PFs on a nightly basis.  KG is a player who you can isolate on 20-30% of NBA PFs and I haven't seen him able to string together 3 straight games of good offensive performances for a few years now.  Pau is a terrific pick and roll player as well (slightly better than KG) which would help Rondo's offensive game also.  I think he'd do a lot for this offense, which is currently 17th in Off-Rating.  KG isn't the defender he once was, so I don't think any defensive drop off would be as great as the offensive improvement.  That's admittedly a pretty subjective statement though.

More importantly, I like this for the next few years where Pau will still be productive and KG won't, and as Who mentioned, we still have other pieces/options in place to work with.  All to stay competitive (while maybe not a true contender) and delay rebuilding.  That core would still be a fun 50-win team to watch.

[wdleehi]

No.


Why end the chance that Howard could come to Boston?


The difference in KG and Gasol at this point is not that great.



Celtic's GM that help the Lakers win do not last long.  

I'd definitely agree with that if I felt there was a good chance (even as low as 25%) that Howard would come to Boston.  

But I feel that there is at least a 50% chance that Dwight gets traded by the trade deadline (to LAL or NJ).  Then, considering the 50% chance that Dwight does make it to FA, I wouldn't put us at a 50% conditional chance to land Dwight... more like 20%... which leaves us at (in my opinion) at a max of 10% overall chance to land Dwight.  Those aren't good odds.  I'll take the guarantee of Pau.

Who says that LAL definitely makes it out of the West with that team anyways?  They will still have to go through OKC who has Westbrook (a nightmare for any of LALs PG), Durant (who can easily produce equal to Kobe), and Perkins to defend Dwight.  Pretty evenly matched teams.

Gasol doesn't push this team to a higher level.  

It keeps the Celtics exactly where they are.  Except without the ability to start the rebuilding.




Why?  

I guess I disagree that Gasol wouldn't push this team to a higher level.  He's much better offensively than KG is.  Pau is a player who you can isolate on 90% of the NBA PFs on a nightly basis.  KG is a player who you can isolate on 20-30% of NBA PFs and I haven't seen him able to string together 3 straight games of good offensive performances for a few years now.  Pau is a terrific pick and roll player as well (slightly better than KG) which would help Rondo's offensive game also.  I think he'd do a lot for this offense, which is currently 17th in Off-Rating.  KG isn't the defender he once was, so I don't think any defensive drop off would be as great as the offensive improvement.  That's admittedly a pretty subjective statement though.

More importantly, I like this for the next few years where Pau will still be productive and KG won't, and as Who mentioned, we still have other pieces/options in place to work with.  All to stay competitive (while maybe not a true contender) and delay rebuilding.  That core would still be a fun 50-win team to watch.

What you get offensively (3 points a game and 7% on FG %) you give up defensively.

[European NBA fan]

I think that KG is worth much more to this team right now, than anything Pau Gasol can bring. KG is the catalyst of our defense. When he gets going, everybody seem to do their job a whole lot better. Pau is a great player, but imo we need KG to compete this season. The team would probably implode without him, chemistry-wise.

I wouldn't mind having Pau, Pierce and Rondo as the core for the next two seasons, but my guess is that we could have him in the off-season, if the Lakers need to unload his contract to get Dwight Howard. I don't think Orlando want to build around Pau.

[action781]

I guess I disagree that Gasol wouldn't push this team to a higher level.  He's much better offensively than KG is.  Pau is a player who you can isolate on 90% of the NBA PFs on a nightly basis.  KG is a player who you can isolate on 20-30% of NBA PFs and I haven't seen him able to string together 3 straight games of good offensive performances for a few years now.  Pau is a terrific pick and roll player as well (slightly better than KG) which would help Rondo's offensive game also.  I think he'd do a lot for this offense, which is currently 17th in Off-Rating.  KG isn't the defender he once was, so I don't think any defensive drop off would be as great as the offensive improvement.  That's admittedly a pretty subjective statement though.

More importantly, I like this for the next few years where Pau will still be productive and KG won't, and as Who mentioned, we still have other pieces/options in place to work with.  All to stay competitive (while maybe not a true contender) and delay rebuilding.  That core would still be a fun 50-win team to watch.

What you get offensively (3 points a game and 7% on FG %) you give up defensively.

That's a pretty simplistic way to look at it.  You also get a better passer and an offensive option that you can rely on to carry the load if Pierce is injured or on the bench.  We currently don't have any players like that.

[Moranis]

I am not a fan of that trade as I don't think it gets a title this year or in the next few and would only delay rebuilding.

So, if this trade doesn't get us a title this year, I assume you don't think we would get one with KG, correct?  And if this delays rebuilding, then presumably holding on to our big 3 is also delaying rebuilding?  So, do you believe we should trade away our big 3 this season?

Absolutely, I'd trade any of the expiring contracts for whatever I could get and would move Pierce in a cost cutting move that also brings something of value.  I'd also move Rondo in the right package (though that wouldn't be a rebuilding move so it would have to have plenty of value).