Author Topic: Bradley Beal trade idea Yaay or Nay?  (Read 9416 times)

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Re: Bradley Beal trade idea Yaay or Nay?
« Reply #60 on: July 23, 2019, 07:32:27 PM »

Offline Fierce1

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Fixed the title. As many said, this is not a rumor.

Just not sure that Beal will be so much better than Brown next year that Smart, Langford and a host of 1st rounders, including the Memphis pick, is worth giving up along with Brown to complete the deal.

Generally a bad idea, especially since I see Jaylen eventually turning into a 20/7/3 with shooting of 47/39/77 and a TS% around 60% with All-Defense level defense type of player in a couple years. If Brown does become that, even on a max(25% of the cap, starting at $28 million per year), he would be a much better value than what Beal would need to be paid(starting around $40 million per or even higher and closer to $50 million, if he makes an All-NBA team).

That's the problem, Brown has yet to reach the level you think he can reach.

Is it possible Brown will never reach that level?
Answer: Yes!

Right now Bradley Beal has a playoff career average of 22.7 ppg.
That means he's a sure thing.

Not only is Beal getting it done in the regular season, he's also getting it done in the playoffs.

And Bradley Beal is very good on defense.

Also, if Ainge really believes Brown can become the 20/7/3 with shooting of 47/39/77 player you're talking about, why is the Celts not offering a contract extension for Brown?
True, he hasn't reached that but could fairly easily. He has shown that with an expanded offensive role he could be that in a couple years. But if Brown gives you 80% of Beal this year, then the addition of trading Smart, Langford, the Memphis pick and one or two other 1st rounders is just awful for the Celtics.

And I am not sure why Danny not offering an extension means anything other than, Danny doesn't offer extensions. He just doesn't. Let the market determine the price. If Brown takes a step forward with an expanded offensive role, Brown will be well taken care of by Ainge next offseason.

The trade proposal is too much.

Celts can offer Smart, Brown, Theis, and a pick in December.

Brown has until December, January, or February to prove he deserves to remain a Celtic.

Regarding the extension, if Brown is a sure thing then Ainge will offer an extension.
It's true Ainge usually doesn't offer extensions.
But if the Celts truly believe Brown is special, offering him an extension should not be an issue.

Also, it's a good thing the Wiz don't want to trade Beal right now.
It gives the Celts more time to evaluate Jaylen Brown.
If Brown can average 18 to 20 points per game from October to December then he's a keeper.
But if Brown remains erratic then Celts should trade him before the season is over.
Really? Brown has until December to be averaging 18-20 or that's it, he isn't worth keeping long term? You are like the third person on this forum I have seen this from and it boggles the mind that you three can have such black and white/absolutely definitive views on this, like it's either 100% this or then it has to be 100% something else.

Players develop at different rates and at different times. Some players develop a lot early. Some later. Some develop in short leaps and bounds, some all at once, some gradually over a decade.

And that development needs context. Is it really all Tatum's and Brown's fault they didn't develop to expectations last year? Should that be considered in evaluating their long term development, that last year's environment wasn't conducive to developing youth?

See, context, shades of grey, no absolutes, it makes a difference, IMHO. Ainge doesn't do extensions but that doesn't mean he doesn't love a player or doesn't have long term plans for the player. I am not sure there is anything to read into how the team feels about Brown from their decision not to offer an extension.

The team loved Smart. He didn't make an All-Star team or average 18-20 PPG. No extension. But they re-signed him at a fair price and he will be here a while, most likely.

That's because if the player doesn't show star potential in year 4, that player will highly unlikely become a star player.

It's understandable if a big man takes longer to develop.

But a wing player usually shows star potential by year 4.

Look at Paul George, Kawhi, Jimmy Butler, and DeRozan.
By year 4 you could already see that they're special players.

The reason why team owners wanted rookie contracts to be 5 years long is to make sure the team can properly evaluate a rookie.

Both Jamal Murray and Buddy Hield were picked after Jaylen Brown in the 2016 Draft.
But last season, year 3 of their careers, both Hield and Murray are showing signs that they are potential star players.

Jayson Tatum, at the age of 19, already showed flashes of a future All-Star in year 1 of his NBA career.

The main problem with Jaylen Brown is not talent.
His problem is he's not as smart on the court as compared to off the court.
Jaylen is very intelligent off the court.
But on the court, Jaylen is very erratic because his decision making is not very good.
Why do you think he played very little during his rookie year?

Brad Stevens doesn't play players who don't make good decisions.
That's why last season Rob Williams didn't play a lot.
A 19-year old Jayson Tatum started and played 30 minutes per game during his rookie year.

Like I said, if Brown doesn't show signs of being a star player this coming season.
It's a waste of time and money if the Celts continue to hold on to him when the Celts drafted Langford.

If Brown proves the doubters wrong, by averaging 18 to 20 points per game, in the first 3 months of the season then there's no more issue.

Jaylen Brown is not like Hayward or Tatum who can contribute in other ways like rebounding and passing, so scoring has to be the basis for Brown's progress.

If Brown can become a consistent scorer in the NBA then he's a keeper.

But if Jaylen Brown continues to be erratic then he's just like Uncle Jeff Green.

Re: Bradley Beal trade idea Yaay or Nay?
« Reply #61 on: July 23, 2019, 07:36:22 PM »

Offline Fierce1

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This proposed deal is Awful with a capital A! All of a sudden, all packages of an All-Star need to be at AD level. Luckily Danny would never make such a deal.

As for how the pieces fit, it also doesn't make sense. You dump our two best defensive players (by far) for yet another guy who needs shots. A line-up of Kemba/Beal/Hayward/Tatum/Kanter is awesome offensively, but not well-balanced at all. We also lose depth in Smart and Langford (along with all of those picks)

Agree.

It's a bad trade.

Celts should only give up Smart, Beal, Theis, and a pick for Beal.

Brown should be given the chance to prove that he's a keeper.

Also, Beal is a two-way player, he's very good on defense.
So it's not sacrificing defense for offense.
Beal is better than Brown on defense right now.

Yeah, there's just no evidence that Beal is a good defender. The eye test and the stats don't back that up. He's been a sieve for a few years.

https://theundefeated.com/features/warriors-klay-thompson-vs-wizards-bradley-beal-who-you-got/

DEFENSE
Beal’s a good defender. Thompson’s a great defender.

Beal this season actually has more steals (1.1 steals per game to 0.9), while he trails Thompson in blocks (0.3 to 0.5).

Re: Bradley Beal trade idea Yaay or Nay?
« Reply #62 on: July 23, 2019, 07:48:22 PM »

Online DefenseWinsChamps

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This proposed deal is Awful with a capital A! All of a sudden, all packages of an All-Star need to be at AD level. Luckily Danny would never make such a deal.

As for how the pieces fit, it also doesn't make sense. You dump our two best defensive players (by far) for yet another guy who needs shots. A line-up of Kemba/Beal/Hayward/Tatum/Kanter is awesome offensively, but not well-balanced at all. We also lose depth in Smart and Langford (along with all of those picks)

Agree.

It's a bad trade.

Celts should only give up Smart, Beal, Theis, and a pick for Beal.

Brown should be given the chance to prove that he's a keeper.

Also, Beal is a two-way player, he's very good on defense.
So it's not sacrificing defense for offense.
Beal is better than Brown on defense right now.

Yeah, there's just no evidence that Beal is a good defender. The eye test and the stats don't back that up. He's been a sieve for a few years.

https://theundefeated.com/features/warriors-klay-thompson-vs-wizards-bradley-beal-who-you-got/

DEFENSE
Beal’s a good defender. Thompson’s a great defender.

Beal this season actually has more steals (1.1 steals per game to 0.9), while he trails Thompson in blocks (0.3 to 0.5).


I'm just gonna disagree and move on. I disagree with your perception of Jaylen Brown's progress. I disagree that he doesn't bring anything to the court other than scoring. I disagree that he has to get to 18-20 a game to prove he is a young star. I disagree that he hasn't already shown in huge situations that he is a young star. I disagree that we should trade a player of his potential on a cost-controlled contract.

I disagree that Beal is a good defender. I disagree that steals and blocks prove good defense.

Just too many disagreements to walk through my arguments on.

Re: Bradley Beal trade idea Yaay or Nay?
« Reply #63 on: July 23, 2019, 07:57:49 PM »

Offline Fierce1

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This proposed deal is Awful with a capital A! All of a sudden, all packages of an All-Star need to be at AD level. Luckily Danny would never make such a deal.

As for how the pieces fit, it also doesn't make sense. You dump our two best defensive players (by far) for yet another guy who needs shots. A line-up of Kemba/Beal/Hayward/Tatum/Kanter is awesome offensively, but not well-balanced at all. We also lose depth in Smart and Langford (along with all of those picks)

Agree.

It's a bad trade.

Celts should only give up Smart, Beal, Theis, and a pick for Beal.

Brown should be given the chance to prove that he's a keeper.

Also, Beal is a two-way player, he's very good on defense.
So it's not sacrificing defense for offense.
Beal is better than Brown on defense right now.

Yeah, there's just no evidence that Beal is a good defender. The eye test and the stats don't back that up. He's been a sieve for a few years.

https://theundefeated.com/features/warriors-klay-thompson-vs-wizards-bradley-beal-who-you-got/

DEFENSE
Beal’s a good defender. Thompson’s a great defender.

Beal this season actually has more steals (1.1 steals per game to 0.9), while he trails Thompson in blocks (0.3 to 0.5).


I'm just gonna disagree and move on. I disagree with your perception of Jaylen Brown's progress. I disagree that he doesn't bring anything to the court other than scoring. I disagree that he has to get to 18-20 a game to prove he is a young star. I disagree that he hasn't already shown in huge situations that he is a young star. I disagree that we should trade a player of his potential on a cost-controlled contract.

I disagree that Beal is a good defender. I disagree that steals and blocks prove good defense.

Just too many disagreements to walk through my arguments on.

So let's agree to disagree and just wait for the 2019-20 season.

Only 4 things will happen this coming season regarding Jaylen.

1. Celts winning games and Brown plays well.
All Celts fans happy.

2. Celts losing games and Jaylen is not very good.
All Celts fans unhappy.

3. Celts winning but Jaylen struggling.
Celts fans will want Brown traded.

4. Celts losing but Jaylen doing well.
Celts fans will stop talking about trading Brown.

But in the end, Danny Ainge will make a trade if a star player is available, Bradley Beal or not.

Re: Bradley Beal trade idea Yaay or Nay?
« Reply #64 on: July 23, 2019, 07:59:51 PM »

Offline Fierce1

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Those who want the Celts to add another big, preferably a PF because the Celts really don't have a PF right now.

Kevin Love is available.

Love will be playing for Team USA to prove that he's healthy and he's still an All-Star player.

Would you guys rather trade Smart, Brown, another player, and a pick for Kevin Love?

Re: Bradley Beal trade idea Yaay or Nay?
« Reply #65 on: July 23, 2019, 08:10:13 PM »

Offline byennie

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Hard pass. Beal's a very good player, but he's nowhere near a superstar. We're living in an era where guys average triple doubles, 35ppg, shoot 50/40/90 for a season. Beal's absolute peak is right now at 25/5/5, and he's a below average defender with chronic knee issues on a big contract. Brown is younger, a better defender, and while Beal is clearly more skilled offensively, the per-minute production isn't a huge gap. And for this swap we're unloading all of our best draft picks? Not worth it.

Re: Bradley Beal trade idea Yaay or Nay?
« Reply #66 on: July 23, 2019, 08:25:06 PM »

Offline nickagneta

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I'm just gonna disagree and move on. I disagree with your perception of Jaylen Brown's progress. I disagree that he doesn't bring anything to the court other than scoring. I disagree that he has to get to 18-20 a game to prove he is a young star. I disagree that he hasn't already shown in huge situations that he is a young star. I disagree that we should trade a player of his potential on a cost-controlled contract.

I disagree that Beal is a good defender. I disagree that steals and blocks prove good defense.

Just too many disagreements to walk through my arguments on.
Yeah, Fierce....I am with DWC on this one. Just will disagree and move on.

Re: Bradley Beal trade idea Yaay or Nay?
« Reply #67 on: July 23, 2019, 10:10:43 PM »

Offline Moranis

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Hard pass. Beal's a very good player, but he's nowhere near a superstar. We're living in an era where guys average triple doubles, 35ppg, shoot 50/40/90 for a season. Beal's absolute peak is right now at 25/5/5, and he's a below average defender with chronic knee issues on a big contract. Brown is younger, a better defender, and while Beal is clearly more skilled offensively, the per-minute production isn't a huge gap. And for this swap we're unloading all of our best draft picks? Not worth it.
He just averaged 25.6/5/5.5 and that is 32 games with Wall.  Once Wall went down Beal was significantly better than that across the board. 
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Re: Bradley Beal trade idea Yaay or Nay?
« Reply #68 on: July 23, 2019, 10:19:56 PM »

Offline playdream

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Fixed the title. As many said, this is not a rumor.

Just not sure that Beal will be so much better than Brown next year that Smart, Langford and a host of 1st rounders, including the Memphis pick, is worth giving up along with Brown to complete the deal.

Generally a bad idea, especially since I see Jaylen eventually turning into a 20/7/3 with shooting of 47/39/77 and a TS% around 60% with All-Defense level defense type of player in a couple years. If Brown does become that, even on a max(25% of the cap, starting at $28 million per year), he would be a much better value than what Beal would need to be paid(starting around $40 million per or even higher and closer to $50 million, if he makes an All-NBA team).

That's the problem, Brown has yet to reach the level you think he can reach.

Is it possible Brown will never reach that level?
Answer: Yes!

Right now Bradley Beal has a playoff career average of 22.7 ppg.
That means he's a sure thing.

Not only is Beal getting it done in the regular season, he's also getting it done in the playoffs.

And Bradley Beal is very good on defense.

Also, if Ainge really believes Brown can become the 20/7/3 with shooting of 47/39/77 player you're talking about, why is the Celts not offering a contract extension for Brown?
True, he hasn't reached that but could fairly easily. He has shown that with an expanded offensive role he could be that in a couple years. But if Brown gives you 80% of Beal this year, then the addition of trading Smart, Langford, the Memphis pick and one or two other 1st rounders is just awful for the Celtics.

And I am not sure why Danny not offering an extension means anything other than, Danny doesn't offer extensions. He just doesn't. Let the market determine the price. If Brown takes a step forward with an expanded offensive role, Brown will be well taken care of by Ainge next offseason.

The trade proposal is too much.

Celts can offer Smart, Brown, Theis, and a pick in December.

Brown has until December, January, or February to prove he deserves to remain a Celtic.

Regarding the extension, if Brown is a sure thing then Ainge will offer an extension.
It's true Ainge usually doesn't offer extensions.
But if the Celts truly believe Brown is special, offering him an extension should not be an issue.

Also, it's a good thing the Wiz don't want to trade Beal right now.
It gives the Celts more time to evaluate Jaylen Brown.
If Brown can average 18 to 20 points per game from October to December then he's a keeper.
But if Brown remains erratic then Celts should trade him before the season is over.
Really? Brown has until December to be averaging 18-20 or that's it, he isn't worth keeping long term? You are like the third person on this forum I have seen this from and it boggles the mind that you three can have such black and white/absolutely definitive views on this, like it's either 100% this or then it has to be 100% something else.

Players develop at different rates and at different times. Some players develop a lot early. Some later. Some develop in short leaps and bounds, some all at once, some gradually over a decade.

And that development needs context. Is it really all Tatum's and Brown's fault they didn't develop to expectations last year? Should that be considered in evaluating their long term development, that last year's environment wasn't conducive to developing youth?

See, context, shades of grey, no absolutes, it makes a difference, IMHO. Ainge doesn't do extensions but that doesn't mean he doesn't love a player or doesn't have long term plans for the player. I am not sure there is anything to read into how the team feels about Brown from their decision not to offer an extension.

The team loved Smart. He didn't make an All-Star team or average 18-20 PPG. No extension. But they re-signed him at a fair price and he will be here a while, most likely.
The main problem with Jaylen Brown is not talent.
His problem is he's not as smart on the court as compared to off the court.
Jaylen is very intelligent off the court.
But on the court, Jaylen is very erratic because his decision making is not very good.
Why do you think he played very little during his rookie year?
Agree, for me it's not his lack of talent but the waste of it, due to his questionable work ethic and attitude

Re: Bradley Beal trade idea Yaay or Nay?
« Reply #69 on: July 23, 2019, 10:30:20 PM »

Offline Moranis

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I'm saying that Kemba Walker is not a good enough player to be the best player on a title team i.e. a 1.  The post I originally responded to (which you cut out) implied that he was.  That is what I was disagreeing with.

I know what said, but I've always found the distinction you are trying to draw to be dubious. Guys who don't appear to be able to be the best players on championship teams have helped their teams win championships in the past. It was said about Spurs, Pistons, and even Curry and the Warriors before their first title. Then we revise history and say they were.

There's no scientific method to determine that. If the Celtics win this year behind Walker as their leading scorer, many (maybe not you, but many) would say he was their best player.

It's just an odd distinction.

My point, again, is that this team has the raw materials to be a championship team if development and chemistry improves.
Curry was still on the rise and finished 6th in MVP voting (11th the prior year) on a 51 win team that had continually been improving since he joined (with the exception his injury year).  His advanced metrics were unbelievably good that year as they were every year of his career.  That was his 5th year in the league and he was 25.  The next year in year 6 he won the MVP and was the best player on that title team (Iggy's award notwithstanding). 

That isn't Kemba Walker.  Kemba just finished year 8 at age 28.  He has never received a single MVP vote.  He has not played in an all star and the playoffs in the same year and has been the best player on a team that has won 36, 36, and 39 games the last 3 years (his 3 all star seasons).  His advanced metrics are good, but they have never been elite, like Curry. 

In other words, there are very clear differences between someone like Curry and someone like Walker (even before the title).  Walker is much more in the Irving class (IT4 was also in that class).  Guys that are excellent scorers, but don't do enough every where else on the court to be a franchise altering talent.  Certainly not an uber elite at any particular skill (or at least consistent enough at it in the case of Irving).  Kemba can certainly be the main end of game scorer and a critical/vital part of a championship team, but not the MAN (so to speak). 

Boston needs Tatum to be that guy.  He probably isn't ready to start taking on that role, but until he is (if he gets there at all), Boston will be what it is i.e. a nice fun team, maybe a 2nd round playoff appearance, but ultimately fodder for the teams that have the franchise altering talents.
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Re: Bradley Beal trade idea Yaay or Nay?
« Reply #70 on: July 23, 2019, 10:31:44 PM »

Offline Fierce1

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I'm just gonna disagree and move on. I disagree with your perception of Jaylen Brown's progress. I disagree that he doesn't bring anything to the court other than scoring. I disagree that he has to get to 18-20 a game to prove he is a young star. I disagree that he hasn't already shown in huge situations that he is a young star. I disagree that we should trade a player of his potential on a cost-controlled contract.

I disagree that Beal is a good defender. I disagree that steals and blocks prove good defense.

Just too many disagreements to walk through my arguments on.
Yeah, Fierce....I am with DWC on this one. Just will disagree and move on.

Understood.

Let's just wait for the 2019-20 season.

Re: Bradley Beal trade idea Yaay or Nay?
« Reply #71 on: July 23, 2019, 10:35:12 PM »

Offline byennie

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Hard pass. Beal's a very good player, but he's nowhere near a superstar. We're living in an era where guys average triple doubles, 35ppg, shoot 50/40/90 for a season. Beal's absolute peak is right now at 25/5/5, and he's a below average defender with chronic knee issues on a big contract. Brown is younger, a better defender, and while Beal is clearly more skilled offensively, the per-minute production isn't a huge gap. And for this swap we're unloading all of our best draft picks? Not worth it.
He just averaged 25.6/5/5.5 and that is 32 games with Wall.  Once Wall went down Beal was significantly better than that across the board.
He had one killer month in February (10 games) but other than that he pretty much picked up 1 or 2 points and 1 assist when Washington ran the offense through him which is to be expected. I think the 25/5/5.5 is a pretty good assessment of his current ability, not understating it. The previous 2 years he was more like 23/4/4 and his game hasn't changed much.

Don't get me wrong, he's a very good player - but last year still looks like an absolute peak. He's maybe a top 10-15 offensive player, average defensively, well paid, with long term health concerns? I just think the proposed price is a superstar deal, and Beal's a tick below.

All that said, I sure wouldn't mind watching a Walker/Beal backcourt right now. No doubt. I'd just offer less as a GM than a good young replacement and 2 lottery picks.

Re: Bradley Beal trade idea Yaay or Nay?
« Reply #72 on: July 24, 2019, 01:14:38 AM »

Offline Fierce1

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Hard pass. Beal's a very good player, but he's nowhere near a superstar. We're living in an era where guys average triple doubles, 35ppg, shoot 50/40/90 for a season. Beal's absolute peak is right now at 25/5/5, and he's a below average defender with chronic knee issues on a big contract. Brown is younger, a better defender, and while Beal is clearly more skilled offensively, the per-minute production isn't a huge gap. And for this swap we're unloading all of our best draft picks? Not worth it.
He just averaged 25.6/5/5.5 and that is 32 games with Wall.  Once Wall went down Beal was significantly better than that across the board.
He had one killer month in February (10 games) but other than that he pretty much picked up 1 or 2 points and 1 assist when Washington ran the offense through him which is to be expected. I think the 25/5/5.5 is a pretty good assessment of his current ability, not understating it. The previous 2 years he was more like 23/4/4 and his game hasn't changed much.

Don't get me wrong, he's a very good player - but last year still looks like an absolute peak. He's maybe a top 10-15 offensive player, average defensively, well paid, with long term health concerns? I just think the proposed price is a superstar deal, and Beal's a tick below.

All that said, I sure wouldn't mind watching a Walker/Beal backcourt right now. No doubt. I'd just offer less as a GM than a good young replacement and 2 lottery picks.

Absolutely!

The offer should just be Smart, Brown, Theis, and a pick for Beal.
But that trade can't be done until December.

Re: Bradley Beal trade idea Yaay or Nay?
« Reply #73 on: July 24, 2019, 06:21:11 AM »

Offline Moranis

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Hard pass. Beal's a very good player, but he's nowhere near a superstar. We're living in an era where guys average triple doubles, 35ppg, shoot 50/40/90 for a season. Beal's absolute peak is right now at 25/5/5, and he's a below average defender with chronic knee issues on a big contract. Brown is younger, a better defender, and while Beal is clearly more skilled offensively, the per-minute production isn't a huge gap. And for this swap we're unloading all of our best draft picks? Not worth it.
He just averaged 25.6/5/5.5 and that is 32 games with Wall.  Once Wall went down Beal was significantly better than that across the board.
He had one killer month in February (10 games) but other than that he pretty much picked up 1 or 2 points and 1 assist when Washington ran the offense through him which is to be expected. I think the 25/5/5.5 is a pretty good assessment of his current ability, not understating it. The previous 2 years he was more like 23/4/4 and his game hasn't changed much.

Don't get me wrong, he's a very good player - but last year still looks like an absolute peak. He's maybe a top 10-15 offensive player, average defensively, well paid, with long term health concerns? I just think the proposed price is a superstar deal, and Beal's a tick below.

All that said, I sure wouldn't mind watching a Walker/Beal backcourt right now. No doubt. I'd just offer less as a GM than a good young replacement and 2 lottery picks.
I don't disagree with your premise, merely pointing out that without John Wall around hogging the ball, Beal's numbers were better than you had mentioned. 
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