ESPN Weekly Power Ranking: now at 3 on 12/9/19

[nickagneta]

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/28212131/nba-power-rankings-week-8-lakers-most-wins-bucks-blowouts-keep-no-1

#3 on ESPN

https://www.si.com/nba/2019/12/09/nba-power-rankings-boston-celtics-jayson-tatum-jaylen-brown

#4 on SI.com

[ederson]

I did not expect that this far into the season. But i like it 

[footey]

Will be interesting to see whether Hayward can fit back in seamlessly, or this is a transition period. I imagine he won't be starting when he first returns.

[saltlover]

Will be interesting to see whether Hayward can fit back in seamlessly, or this is a transition period. I imagine he won't be starting when he first returns.

I fully expect him to start.  It’s easier to control minutes for someone starting both halves than it is finding the right times to bring him in mid-game.

[bdm860]

Milwaukee has an easy schedule (despite 4 games), will be interesting to see if they can go 4-0 and extend their winning streak to 18.  Two tougher opponents next week (DAL, LAL), but both at home for a chance to extend their streak even further.

LAL has a little tougher schedule, with 3 on the road next week (part of a 5 game road trip that ends in Milwaukee). 

But LAL/MIL on 12/19 is shaping up to be quite the match up, with both at the top of their conference.  Might actually have to root for an LAL win there (don't ban me please)


C's got a tough week ahead of them with @IND and PHI back-to-back, then almost a week off.  If Hayward does come back tonight, wonder how he'll look against PHI, doing 3 games in 4 days soon as he's back.

[RMO]

Milwaukee has an easy schedule (despite 4 games), will be interesting to see if they can go 4-0 and extend their winning streak to 18.  Two tougher opponents next week (DAL, LAL), but both at home for a chance to extend their streak even further.

LAL has a little tougher schedule, with 3 on the road next week (part of a 5 game road trip that ends in Milwaukee). 

But LAL/MIL on 12/19 is shaping up to be quite the match up, with both at the top of their conference.  Might actually have to root for an LAL win there (don't ban me please)


C's got a tough week ahead of them with @IND and PHI back-to-back, then almost a week off.  If Hayward does come back tonight, wonder how he'll look against PHI, doing 3 games in 4 days soon as he's back.

I know what you're saying but I just can't do it.

[Surferdad]

Weekly rankings are kind of meaningless without indexing to Strength of Schedule.  Don't have those numbers handy, but my gut tells me the C's have had one of the easiest schedules so far in the NBA.

[saltlover]

Milwaukee has an easy schedule (despite 4 games), will be interesting to see if they can go 4-0 and extend their winning streak to 18.  Two tougher opponents next week (DAL, LAL), but both at home for a chance to extend their streak even further.

LAL has a little tougher schedule, with 3 on the road next week (part of a 5 game road trip that ends in Milwaukee). 

But LAL/MIL on 12/19 is shaping up to be quite the match up, with both at the top of their conference.  Might actually have to root for an LAL win there (don't ban me please)


C's got a tough week ahead of them with @IND and PHI back-to-back, then almost a week off.  If Hayward does come back tonight, wonder how he'll look against PHI, doing 3 games in 4 days soon as he's back.

I know what you're saying but I just can't do it.

Remember, we have Milwaukee’s pick, so all Bucks losses are good, even to the Lakers.

[PhoSita]

Weekly rankings are kind of meaningless without indexing to Strength of Schedule.  Don't have those numbers handy, but my gut tells me the C's have had one of the easiest schedules so far in the NBA.

Eh ... they opened the season against Philly and Milwaukee and they've had one pretty brutal West Coast road trip.

Not to mention playing some solid West teams like the Nuggets multiple times so far.


I can't imagine that the Celts have had one of the easiest schedules.  I would expect that their SOS ranking may be skewed by playing the Knicks a couple times, but there haven't been a ton of cupcake games on the schedule, and plenty of reasonably tough ones.

[saltlover]

Weekly rankings are kind of meaningless without indexing to Strength of Schedule.  Don't have those numbers handy, but my gut tells me the C's have had one of the easiest schedules so far in the NBA.

Eh ... they opened the season against Philly and Milwaukee and they've had one pretty brutal West Coast road trip.

Not to mention playing some solid West teams like the Nuggets multiple times so far.


I can't imagine that the Celts have had one of the easiest schedules.  I would expect that their SOS ranking may be skewed by playing the Knicks a couple times, but there haven't been a ton of cupcake games on the schedule, and plenty of reasonably tough ones.

If just using pure wins-losses of opponents they’ve played, the Celtics are right in the middle of the NBA, with the 15th-most difficult schedule, having played opponents with exactly a .500 record.  Milwaukee is 17th (.498 record) and Lakers 20th (.489 record).  The Celtics have also played fewer home games than those teams.

Not the most difficult schedule amongst contenders (that goes to Toronto), but not particularly easy in most any sense.

[PhoSita]

Weekly rankings are kind of meaningless without indexing to Strength of Schedule.  Don't have those numbers handy, but my gut tells me the C's have had one of the easiest schedules so far in the NBA.

Eh ... they opened the season against Philly and Milwaukee and they've had one pretty brutal West Coast road trip.

Not to mention playing some solid West teams like the Nuggets multiple times so far.


I can't imagine that the Celts have had one of the easiest schedules.  I would expect that their SOS ranking may be skewed by playing the Knicks a couple times, but there haven't been a ton of cupcake games on the schedule, and plenty of reasonably tough ones.

If just using pure wins-losses of opponents they’ve played, the Celtics are right in the middle of the NBA, with the 15th-most difficult schedule, having played opponents with exactly a .500 record.  Milwaukee is 17th (.498 record) and Lakers 20th (.489 record).  The Celtics have also played fewer home games than those teams.

Not the most difficult schedule amongst contenders (that goes to Toronto), but not particularly easy in most any sense.

I think you'd have to take into account the challenge of that West Coast road trip, as well.  That's where more than half of the Celts' losses come from.


Also, what these SOS numbers never account for is how good the opponents were when the team played them.

For example, playing the Knicks early in the season before turmoil hit and the losses started really piling up is much different than playing the Knicks now.  The Knicks have played the Celts tough a couple of times.


Similarly, playing the Kings in the first few games of the season when they were in disarray (for whatever reason) is much different than playing the Kings when the Celts did on their road trip, or the recent game in TD Garden.

[liam]

Weekly rankings are kind of meaningless without indexing to Strength of Schedule.  Don't have those numbers handy, but my gut tells me the C's have had one of the easiest schedules so far in the NBA.

Eh ... they opened the season against Philly and Milwaukee and they've had one pretty brutal West Coast road trip.

Not to mention playing some solid West teams like the Nuggets multiple times so far.


I can't imagine that the Celts have had one of the easiest schedules.  I would expect that their SOS ranking may be skewed by playing the Knicks a couple times, but there haven't been a ton of cupcake games on the schedule, and plenty of reasonably tough ones.

If just using pure wins-losses of opponents they’ve played, the Celtics are right in the middle of the NBA, with the 15th-most difficult schedule, having played opponents with exactly a .500 record.  Milwaukee is 17th (.498 record) and Lakers 20th (.489 record).  The Celtics have also played fewer home games than those teams.

Not the most difficult schedule amongst contenders (that goes to Toronto), but not particularly easy in most any sense.

I think you'd have to take into account the challenge of that West Coast road trip, as well.  That's where more than half of the Celts' losses come from.


Also, what these SOS numbers never account for is how good the opponents were when the team played them.

For example, playing the Knicks early in the season before turmoil hit and the losses started really piling up is much different than playing the Knicks now.  The Knicks have played the Celts tough a couple of times.


Similarly, playing the Kings in the first few games of the season when they were in disarray (for whatever reason) is much different than playing the Kings when the Celts did on their road trip, or the recent game in TD Garden.

It's very complicated. Teams on a back to back, long road trip, injuries, etc....

[keevsnick]

Weekly rankings are kind of meaningless without indexing to Strength of Schedule.  Don't have those numbers handy, but my gut tells me the C's have had one of the easiest schedules so far in the NBA.

Eh ... they opened the season against Philly and Milwaukee and they've had one pretty brutal West Coast road trip.

Not to mention playing some solid West teams like the Nuggets multiple times so far.


I can't imagine that the Celts have had one of the easiest schedules.  I would expect that their SOS ranking may be skewed by playing the Knicks a couple times, but there haven't been a ton of cupcake games on the schedule, and plenty of reasonably tough ones.

If just using pure wins-losses of opponents they’ve played, the Celtics are right in the middle of the NBA, with the 15th-most difficult schedule, having played opponents with exactly a .500 record.  Milwaukee is 17th (.498 record) and Lakers 20th (.489 record).  The Celtics have also played fewer home games than those teams.

Not the most difficult schedule amongst contenders (that goes to Toronto), but not particularly easy in most any sense.

I think you'd have to take into account the challenge of that West Coast road trip, as well.  That's where more than half of the Celts' losses come from.


Also, what these SOS numbers never account for is how good the opponents were when the team played them.

For example, playing the Knicks early in the season before turmoil hit and the losses started really piling up is much different than playing the Knicks now. The Knicks have played the Celts tough a couple of times.


Similarly, playing the Kings in the first few games of the season when they were in disarray (for whatever reason) is much different than playing the Kings when the Celts did on their road trip, or the recent game in TD Garden.

I disagree with this point, I think the record now is a better indicator of the teams actual talent level then whether they perhaps lucked into a few wins earlier in the season or stumbled into a few losses. Like sure, teams can go through mini streaks where their play isnt representative of their season but that can happen but thats a hard thing to capture and overall w-l record is probably still the best overall picture. The Spurs are a good example, the C's played them at 6-3 but since then they've been terrible. I think its fair too treat them as more the below 500 team than the 6-3 team.

Maybe what you need is a "rolling" win percentage where you take the win% of 5 games before and 5 games after you play each team then average that across the season. he result would probably be a truer representation of how well each opponent was playing when you face them.

Overall I think their SOS being middle of the pack is fair. They've played the knicks 3 times, Cle, Was, Sas, Cha and although they've beat the Mil, Tor, Mil trio all those games were at home. That balances out a west coast trip to me.

[bdm860]

For this week (12/23):

ESPN has C's up 1 to #5 (behind MIL, LAL, LAC, MIA)

NBA.com has C's up 2 to #3 (behind MIL and LAL)

CBS has C's up 4 to #3 (behind MIL and DEN)

NBC has Boston up 1 to #7 (behind MIL, LAL, LAC, HOU, MIA, DAL).

One non-C's related thing that stood out, CBS is the only site that has Denver so high at #2, everybody else has them at #8.  They're tied for the 4th fewest losses, just beat most sites #2 on the road (though w/o LeBron), and have won 6 in a row, the longest current winning streak in the NBA (though 5 were at home against less than stellar competition).  Is Denver getting a lack of respect here?

[footey]

For this week (12/23):

ESPN has C's up 1 to #5 (behind MIL, LAL, LAC, MIA)

NBA.com has C's up 2 to #3 (behind MIL and LAL)

CBS has C's up 4 to #3 (behind MIL and DEN)

NBC has Boston up 1 to #7 (behind MIL, LAL, LAC, HOU, MIA, DAL).

One non-C's related thing that stood out, CBS is the only site that has Denver so high at #2, everybody else has them at #8.  They're tied for the 4th fewest losses, just beat most sites #2 on the road (though w/o LeBron), and have won 6 in a row, the longest current winning streak in the NBA (though 5 were at home against less than stellar competition).  Is Denver getting a lack of respect here?

The ESPN ranking seemed to have been completed before the games were played last night. Celtics should definitely be ranked higher than the Heat now, and, arguably, higher than the Clips after their loss last night.