The idea that an ELO rating is garbage because it rates a team with 7 more wins, better SRS, Net Rating than another team means you're just mad that GSW mailed in much of their season and most of all that Curry got hurt.
The GSW are -160 favorites to win the series FWIW.
The idea is that the model is garbage because it is incapable of understanding why something happened, not that it happened.
Yeah, that is what I'm getting at. I'm not sure the fix, but any time a model is based on something which is clearly flawed, its predictive factors disappear. If they were just using the model to say who had a better season, then it would be fine, but they use the model to predict future events, and in that case what happens in a season should factor in, but can't be the only thing. The Warriors coasted, took time off, had players out with injury, and frankly just didn't care. This is something that happens a lot with the better teams, especially as the seasons of success start getting larger. You can't predict the playoffs based solely on the regular season for that reason. Now maybe if they took prior year's performances, especially in the playoffs, and then somehow combined that with the current season, the predictive nature of the model would make more sense (and would thus disregard the Warriors poorer statistical season).