Is this a 50 team with JB as #1?

[W8ting2McHale]

Before the season began I would not have thought so. I would have said if Tatum goes down for an extended period (or wasn’t a Celtic at all) we’re toast, but the way the bench has steadily grown into their roles; and the way JB has improved his game as well, I think this is a 48-52 win team without Tatum. (Caveat- Timelord is playing and playing well).

It would mean more Brogdon, which would push JB into taking over Tatum’s role, just with less ball handling since Malcom would help Smart with that and Payton would be getting more minutes too.

Of course, Timelord isn’t healthy, Brogdon might break down with the extra work load, and so might JB. It would take everyone having just minimal injuries, but I think this team has enough talent even without JT to be a 50 win team.

Edit to clarify - The starting 5 would be:

R Williams
A Horford
J Brown
M Brogdon
M Smart

Thankfully we have JT and Timelord is coming back, which looks like a 60 win team to me.

[bopna]

We would probably level with the Nets but even that is pushing it since KD despite his advanced age is still better than JB atm.
But we certainly aint beating the Bucks even without Kate Middleton.

[Who]

Yeah, it could.

C: Rob Williams, Kornet
F: Horford, G Williams
F: Jaylen, Hauser
G: Smart, D White
G: Brogdon, Pritchard

A 10 man team of average talent should get you to .500. That team there is more than average talent. They got plus talent at two big man spots, an impressive three guard rotation with Pritchard as a fourth, a strong bench forward in G Williams and that is before we talk about Jaylen Brown. Hauser is solidifying himself as a good bench player. Kornet is ... well, anyway.

Yeah, that looks a 48-52 win team to me if healthy.

[Moranis]

Brown has never shown the ability to lead the Celtics as the #1.  That doesn't mean he couldn't do it, but in the few games when Tatum has been out, Boston has not been good.

[Roy H.]

I don't think so.  There are only five teams in the NBA on pace to win 50 games:  Celtics, Bucks, Cavaliers, Suns and Nuggets.  Boston, Milwaukee and the Nuggets clearly have MVP candidates; the Suns (Booker) and Cavs (Mitchell) have guys who will be in the conversation.

We'd likely be a playoff team, but without Tatum I don't see us near the top of the conference.

[Roy H.]

Brown has never shown the ability to lead the Celtics as the #1.  That doesn't mean he couldn't do it, but in the few games when Tatum has been out, Boston has not been good.

Data point:  last night.

[Moranis]

Brown has never shown the ability to lead the Celtics as the #1.  That doesn't mean he couldn't do it, but in the few games when Tatum has been out, Boston has not been good.

Data point:  last night.

Sure, they beat a mediocre team at home.  They had a huge lead though, so that is promising and Brown played well overall, but I'm not sure the shooting from the other players is sustainable over the course of a lot of games (14 of 27 from 3 outside of Brown, the team didn't miss a foul shot and shot 55% from the field overall). 

[slamtheking]

Brown has never shown the ability to lead the Celtics as the #1.  That doesn't mean he couldn't do it, but in the few games when Tatum has been out, Boston has not been good.

Data point:  last night.

beat me to it. 

this constant bashing of Brown is aging like week old fish in the sun

[Who]

Brown has never shown the ability to lead the Celtics as the #1.  That doesn't mean he couldn't do it, but in the few games when Tatum has been out, Boston has not been good.

I believe it's less about Jaylen leading the team and more about the quality on the team overall. I was thining about Jerry Stackhouse on those Pistons teams again when I saw this thread and I was thinking about Jerry leading the league in scoring there but really it was Ben Wallace and their gritty supporting cast that was leading the team to wins.

Now Jaylen is better than Jerry because Jaylen is (1) a superior jump-shooter and floor spacer (2) a superior defensive player.

The thought was more along the lines of a prolific scorer getting undue or too much credit for the team's success when in reality the reasons were elsewhere. On this Boston team minus Tatum, the overall squad is still so strong. I believe they get to 50 wins. Not because of Jaylen but because of the overall squad.

Jaylen would typically struggle to get a team to .500. He just doesn't bring players together and make them a team. Make them a winner. Instead they are just a group of guys wearing the same clothes. And while individually talented, Jaylen is not so talented that he completely dominate and lead with overwhelming individual force either. He is not efficient enough offensively as as scorer to do that or dominant enough defensively.

It is about that team, not Jaylen.

[W8ting2McHale]

Yeah, it could.

C: Rob Williams, Kornet
F: Horford, G Williams
F: Jaylen, Hauser
G: Smart, D White
G: Brogdon, Pritchard

A 10 man team of average talent should get you to .500. That team there is more than average talent. They got plus talent at two big man spots, an impressive three guard rotation with Pritchard as a fourth, a strong bench forward in G Williams and that is before we talk about Jaylen Brown. Hauser is solidifying himself as a good bench player. Kornet is ... well, anyway.

Yeah, that looks a 48-52 win team to me if healthy.

I’m also thinking that if it had been Tatum going down with a long term injury this summer instead of Gallinari. Either getting hurt at an exhibition game like Chet Holgren or maybe he stepped on one of his kid’s Lego pieces in the middle of the night and stumbled enough to fall and break his wrist. He misses a big chunk of the season but is ready for the playoffs.

In that case, we’ll have plenty of bigs with Gallinari. We probably don’t need Griffin or Vonleh, and would have signed more wing depth. Keep Ryan around? Sign Carmelo? That would pick up some slack on offense, but what about defense? Even with Timelord back, it’s not going to be as good without Tatum. An athletic defensive wing that’s mediocre on offense might be enough, but who?

As you said later, it’s more about the overall construction and depth of this team than putting it all on JB.

Also thinking the hypothetical injury happened after the TPE expired, but before the season started. Don’t want to deprive anyone of those constant Brad threw that away for nothing threads.

[W8ting2McHale]

Brown has never shown the ability to lead the Celtics as the #1.  That doesn't mean he couldn't do it, but in the few games when Tatum has been out, Boston has not been good.

Data point:  last night.

beat me to it. 

this constant bashing of Brown is aging like week old fish in the sun

He’s flashed like he could be a number one if Tatum wasn’t around a few times over the years. He’s not been consistent at it, which is why sometimes he’ll fall flat. Over an extended period I think he’s going to figure it out that he’s got other shooters and ball handlers around him just like Tatum has.

Hey, if Tatum wasn’t even a Celtics, but rather an Atlanta Hawk, just think of all the Trade JB for JT threads we could have!  Lol.

[MarcusSmartFanClub]

Jaylen Brown was better than Jayson Tatum in their only trip to the NBA finals. Every team in the NBA would love to sign Jaylen Brown. The anti-Jaylen bias is disappointing to read.

[wdleehi]

If you just take Tatum off, no.   I don't think so.



If you replace Tatum with an average starting SF, maybe.

[Celtics2021]

Could this team win roughly 60% of its games with Tatum out this season?  Probably, if that number is in the 10-15 game range.  Could they do that over 82 games?  Probably not, because JB has consistently needed about 15 games off per season in recent years, and a hypothetical Tatum-less Celtics would lose a large chunk of the games Brown missed.

[bogg]

If you just take Tatum off, no.   I don't think so.



If you replace Tatum with an average starting SF, maybe.

See, I also think this is a big variable. I think it's plausible this group (remember, "this group" includes Rob) could win 50 with no Tatum if they were mostly healthy throughout the season. The IT team did. If you replaced Tatum with, like, Harrison Barnes I actually think it'd be somewhat likely.