20 Games In - What Are Your Thoughts?

[MarcusSmartFanClub]

The only negative I've seen so far this season is the JB -> Kyrie stuff.  That should be easy enough to move on from.

The only negative? You complained a decent amount about the backup bigs and used hyperbole (indefensible I believe was the word) to make your point. I think you’re doing the same with Jaylen Brown. I believe Nick and other posters made the point that you are going too far with this stuff.

I agree that anti semitism is wrong. I don’t agree that Jaylen is a bigot. Like Nick said, supporting a friend (Kyrie) is different than perpetrating the act. Otherwise, I would be responsible for all of the dumb stuff my friends have done/said over the years.

Roy, you were cryptically reading Jaylen’s tweets (a weird thing to do) this summer during the whole KD trade nonsense. Is there a chance you wanted him gone before Kyrie’s comments?

What a weird post.

First, I've admitted that Kornet has turned into a useful rotation player.  I still think it's indefensible that we came into the season with so many players on the roster that can't contribute.  Turns out, Kornet can fill a role, so bravo to Brad on that one.  Not so much for Vonleh and Jackson.  I'll consider Blake an assistant coach at this point.

As for Jaylen, I don't think there's anything cryptic about it.  He's been going out of his way to support anti-Semites, and he admitted that the off-the-court stuff was a distraction.  I have no idea if JB is a bigot.  I know that he's bigot-adjacent, which isn't a good place for your second best player to be.  And, the things that I pointed out in Jaylen's tweets (again, not cryptic) was his repeated criticism of Boston fans, and posts showing him hanging out with Kanye and Kyrie.  Rather than back down from that stance, I'm going to pat myself on the back for predicting ahead of time that Brown would get himself into trouble hanging with those two weirdos.  JB's friend and former business partner is now hanging out with neo-nazis and Holocaust deniers.

As I said, he should put this behind him.  He's a great player, but his career can take a rapid Kyrie-like turn if he keeps going down these fake-intellectual anti-Jew, black supremacist rabbit holes.  I'd prefer to keep this topic in the other thread, though, rather than derailing this one.

Lastly...  if your friends are saying racist / anti-Semitic things, you probably should take a look in the mirror about that friendship.  I don't care all that much that you and Nick hang out with a bunch of idiots that say terrible things.  I don't.  People who condone hatred have some issues that they need to work out, and that extends beyond an infatuation with being Jaylen's (or Kyrie's, or Kanye's) white knight.

I don’t know what you mean by going out of his way. Tweeting? Tweeting is not a heavy lift.

There’s a whole world outside of Twitter. He’s been an active person in helping to shape that world for the better through civic engagement and working with kids. He has been recognized for these efforts.

Instead, we should focus on his social media? I’m not buying this Roy. I agree that we shouldn’t condone our friends transgressions. I also don’t think we need to work to disparage a person that has many good deeds in real life. Analyzing tweets and likes is weird.

Re: the topic: I’m psyched. Go Celtics and go positivity!

[td450]

This team isn't even the deepest team of the last 5 years.  I mean that 18-19 team was very deep.  They didn't get along and weren't as good, but were a much deeper team.

PG - Irving, Rozier, Wanamaker
SG - Brown, Smart
SF - Tatum, Hayward, Semi
PF - Horford, Morris
C - Baynes, Theis, Rob

What about quality depth?   Every team has 2nd and 3rd string players.  You've got the 2018-19 versions of 13 guys.  Compare with the 22-23 versions of the C's top 13.  Yes, person 12 and 13 on the 18-19 (Semi; Wanamaker) C's have more value than 12 and 13 on 22-23 (Vonleh; Griffin).  But top 11 I give almost every slot to the current C's (I take Luke over oft-injured rookie Rob; GH and TR were 11 ppg role players, Smart was a poor-shooting SG, and the Jays of 18-19 were not the Jays of 22-23). C's have better quality throughout the top 11 with the exception of Morris depending on where you slot him.

Tatum
Brown
Brogdon
Smart
Rob
White
Al
Grant
Sam
PP
Luke
Vonleh
Griffin

This Year vs. 2019

Tatum > Irving
Brown > Tatum
Horford < Horford
Brogdon < Brown
Smart = Smart
Rob < Hayward (until we see what Rob actually looks like, Hayward was better that year - that was basically his only healthy year in Boston)
White < Rozier
Grant < Morris
Kornet < Baynes
Vonleh < Theis

The 2019 team was much more balanced and distributed the scoring a lot more.  It was significantly deeper as you went down the roster.  I don't think that is really arguable at this point, though Tatum and Brown are better than Irving and Tatum were on the 19 team.  In the playoffs that year, they had 5 guys at 13.7 or more ppg.  They spread it around more than the current team does where Tatum and Brown are scoring machines (the pace is also faster today, though Boston has an obscene start to scoring this year).  Brogdon is 3rd on the team at 13.6 ppg and no one else is above 11.2.

The difference with the top two is huge in favor of this year's team, plus:

Brogdon > Brown
Smart > Smart by quite a bit
White > Rozier
Grant = Morris (Grant is more efficient and more complementary but plays a lesser offensive role. Morris was more assertive than optimal, especially later in the year)
Hauser < Hayward - but by much less than expected

[Atzar]

White < Rozier

Even ignoring the chemistry issues and the fit, I don't think Rozier was better in 2019 than White has been this year.

https://stathead.com/basketball/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&player_id1=roziete01&p1yrfrom=2019&player_id2=whitede01&p2yrfrom=2023

2022 White is better than 2019 Rozier and it's not particularly close IMHO. 

Rozier never did figure out how to come off the bench.  When he started, he was good.  Dude was a pumpkin off the bench though.  Meanwhile White helps us win no matter where he is in the rotation. 

[Sophomore]

This team isn't even the deepest team of the last 5 years.  I mean that 18-19 team was very deep.  They didn't get along and weren't as good, but were a much deeper team.

PG - Irving, Rozier, Wanamaker
SG - Brown, Smart
SF - Tatum, Hayward, Semi
PF - Horford, Morris
C - Baynes, Theis, Rob

On paper. Games aren't played on paper.

This team actually uses its depth because it can play together. Depth doesn't matter if the team can't do that.

The playing together part definitely matters. Roster construction on this team is a lot better. If Smart is out, White slides in well. Either of them, or PP, can fill a lot of what Brogdon does. Lot of complementary pieces - and leaders, in the Js, who can play with 3-4 bench players on a very effective line.

[Moranis]

White < Rozier

Even ignoring the chemistry issues and the fit, I don't think Rozier was better in 2019 than White has been this year.

https://stathead.com/basketball/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&player_id1=roziete01&p1yrfrom=2019&player_id2=whitede01&p2yrfrom=2023

I think they are fairly close.  I think Rozier was much better when needed to fill in as a starter, though White is better with mostly full health as a secondary player because he has been a better shooter, though I don't expect White to continue to shoot well above his career numbers either.  If White's shooting falls more in line with his career numbers, I do think Rozier was better that year than White is this year.  Time will tell if the 20 games are an anomaly or if White maybe has figured it out.  Rozier's shooting got significantly better when he had a more consistent role in Charlotte, so perhaps White is finding the same kind of growth in Boston that Rozier had in Charlotte.

[jpotter33]

So far, so good.  The only concern I have (which I admit is a contrarian view), is that the offense may sputter a bit when Timelord returns.  While we all expect him to rectify many of our defensive issues, he provides less spacing than all of our current lineups and I worry that the offense will take a large step backwards.

I hope and expect that the benefits will outweigh the deficits from his return, but I wonder what others think about this point.

Eh, he definitely isn’t a spacing big like a KAT or Jokic, but some of that spacing he’s taking away is beneficial given both the PnR and lob threats he presents. Given the amount of shooting and spacing  we have already, I think the minor decrease in spacing Timelord provides is greatly outweighed by the other benefits of his presence, particularly the lob threat, which will only grow with internal playmaking improvements from JT and the addition of Brogdon and White, too.

[jpotter33]

This is a fun team. It's such a privilege to see Derrick White throw a beautiful bounce pass to Malcolm Brogdon on the break last night, and then realize that they are our 4th and 5th ball handlers. The team is filled with smart, unselfish players that are genuinely seeking the best shot they can.

It's easier to win with offense than defense. Defense takes so much effort. I'd like to see them be able to turn on their defense a bit more later in the season, just to show they can going into the playoffs.

Kornet has teased his ability to impact a team as a rotation player, and he's starting to do it now. I think he could be a reasonable replacement for Daniel Theis in our rotation. Hauser looks like a 10 year rotation player that we have locked up for several more years. Horford still looks effective and Grant Williams continues to show his capabilities as a team defender and in a 5-out offensive system. Tatum and Brown both took a huge leap this year.

Just win with offense all year, stay healthy, and then turn the defense on come playoff time.

Excellent points about the defense. TP.

I agree that it takes a lot more energy and burden to win through the defensive end, and given that I think you can more easily “flip the switch” defensively when needed, which we’ve seen a few times when needed this year. Also, given this, I think the guys are less prone to be that hardcore defensively when we’re running teams out of the league with our high powered offense as it is, making that energy output defensively unneeded at this stage.

Hopefully we do get back to a more balanced approach to beating teams once Timelord is back, as I do think simply trying to outscore opponents can lead to bad habits.

[Donoghus]

This team is loaded. I just want them to stay healthy. 

Christmas Day will be a barometer.  East will come down to Boston & Milwaukee.  It might simply boil down to health in the spring. Who is the healthier team.

[Hoopvortex]

Great start, still worried about the lack of size, which I believe has correlated to the drop in defense and is clearly responsible for the rebounding deficit (and it is nearly a 5 rebound swing from last year). 

I think that you're right about a connection between size and rebounding, at least in general. Then, too, it's worth a look whether Boston really is smaller, not to mention what exactly it is we mean when we say there's a lack of size. Topics for another day.

What I want to address is how crucial it is to separate "rebounding" into its two parts, and why if you look at rebounding as a whole you can get a distorted idea about what's actually going on with a team; and in fact the Celtics are a perfect example of why this is so.

Offensive and defensive rebounding have distinct though overlapping skillsets; equally importantly, effective defensive rebounding is mandatory while offensive rebounding is a matter of a coach's preferences.

If you compare defensive rebounding between last season and this, they are almost identical:

This year, .776 - 7th in the league, which you'd have to agree is pretty good; last year, .773 - 11th in the league.

The difference is negligible, especially at this stage of the season. But it is important to recognize that Boston, if anything, is a slightly better defensive rebounding team than it was last year, at least up to this point. So saying that Boston is worse at rebounding up to this point is only true for offensive rebounding.

As I said, offensive rebounding is a different animal. Where defensive rebounding in the modern game is an extension of the team defense, building a point-to-point perimeter to prevent penetration ("five on a string" and all that), offensive rebounding is disruptive and chaotic; and while the defensive team has a natural advantage in positioning for rebounding - neutralizing some of any size disadvantage they might have - offensive rebounding favors length and lower body strength. In a shorthand, size.

So where do your 2023 Boston Celtics sit on the offensive rebounding rankings? It's tempting to get all melodramatic about it. Fallen off a cliff. Up the creek without a paddle. Gone to hell in a handbasket:

This year, .188, for 29th in the league; last year, .240, for 8th in the league.

I got all melodramatic; but in fact this year's Celtics actually are a mediocre defensive team, and (so far at least) are one of the historically great offensive teams. So whatever cliffs, paddles, or handbaskets you might invoke, the poor offensive rebounding does not appear to be consequential for the offense - in fact, it is worth asking if, at least in the case of the Boston Celtics, not crashing the offensive board is contributing to winning.

Rob will certainly help with both of those, but I'm not sure he will make up the whole difference.   

I agree. But I want to emphasize something I was pointing to earlier: how much offensive rebounding a team does is not just a function of personnel; some coaches would just prefer to get back down the court and stop their opponent's early offense. On a spectrum between maximum pressure on the O board and maximum change-ends-and-set-up-the-defense, Joe has placed Boston at the far end.

[JLssg4]

Quoting Hoopvortex: "how much offensive rebounding a team does is not just a function of personnel; some coaches would just prefer to get back down the court and stop their opponent's early offense. On a spectrum between maximum pressure on the O board and maximum change-ends-and-set-up-the-defense, Joe has placed Boston at the far end."

Started typing a similar sentiment only to see it already layed out.  I second this.  Not saying it's the only factor...just likely the biggest one.  Especially if we consider that the personnel factor likely weighs into it. 

I want to say Stevens had them playing this way too, with Ime shifting a bit closer to the middle of the 'dial'....but memory might not be serving me there.  [I know for sure those Zeller/Olynyk/A. Johnson/Jerebko frontcourts produced rebounding advantages for the opponent nightly.]

 

[PAOBoston]

Overall, team has performed very well. Offensively they are a juggernaut. Defensively… not great but giving them some time until Timelord comes back to see how much that improves. Feels like the defense (or lack thereof) is more of an effort thing so far this year rather than a talent issue.

My biggest concern is the minutes for Horford (and big man rotation overall). My fear is running Horford into the ground. He’s hovering around 30 mins per game at the moment so really need to make sure that Timelord comes back soon and can stay healthy (huge ask) to manage minutes. They need to make a move for a big man to solidify that rotation. Kornet has actually been fairly solid during the win streak but think you need a little more there. Vonleh is a foul magnet and can’t really stay on the court.

My other concern it JT’s minutes. Think they need to get him some rest days here or there as he’s been carrying a big load so far this year.

[RockinRyA]

Quoting Hoopvortex: "how much offensive rebounding a team does is not just a function of personnel; some coaches would just prefer to get back down the court and stop their opponent's early offense. On a spectrum between maximum pressure on the O board and maximum change-ends-and-set-up-the-defense, Joe has placed Boston at the far end."

Started typing a similar sentiment only to see it already layed out.  I second this.  Not saying it's the only factor...just likely the biggest one.  Especially if we consider that the personnel factor likely weighs into it. 

I want to say Stevens had them playing this way too, with Ime shifting a bit closer to the middle of the 'dial'....but memory might not be serving me there.  [I know for sure those Zeller/Olynyk/A. Johnson/Jerebko frontcourts produced rebounding advantages for the opponent nightly.]

Doc has them playing that way during the KG-PP-Ray era

[SHAQATTACK]

Brogdon and White is so fun watch .  Best basketball since KG and Rondo and Paul,

[Celtics Mike]

Absolutely delighted with the contributions from White and Brogdon this season. White is much improved from last season now that he has settled long may it continue. As someone said elsewhere PP is now a luxury to bring off the bench.

[Moranis]

Great start, still worried about the lack of size, which I believe has correlated to the drop in defense and is clearly responsible for the rebounding deficit (and it is nearly a 5 rebound swing from last year). 

I think that you're right about a connection between size and rebounding, at least in general. Then, too, it's worth a look whether Boston really is smaller, not to mention what exactly it is we mean when we say there's a lack of size. Topics for another day.

What I want to address is how crucial it is to separate "rebounding" into its two parts, and why if you look at rebounding as a whole you can get a distorted idea about what's actually going on with a team; and in fact the Celtics are a perfect example of why this is so.

Offensive and defensive rebounding have distinct though overlapping skillsets; equally importantly, effective defensive rebounding is mandatory while offensive rebounding is a matter of a coach's preferences.

If you compare defensive rebounding between last season and this, they are almost identical:

This year, .776 - 7th in the league, which you'd have to agree is pretty good; last year, .773 - 11th in the league.

The difference is negligible, especially at this stage of the season. But it is important to recognize that Boston, if anything, is a slightly better defensive rebounding team than it was last year, at least up to this point. So saying that Boston is worse at rebounding up to this point is only true for offensive rebounding.

As I said, offensive rebounding is a different animal. Where defensive rebounding in the modern game is an extension of the team defense, building a point-to-point perimeter to prevent penetration ("five on a string" and all that), offensive rebounding is disruptive and chaotic; and while the defensive team has a natural advantage in positioning for rebounding - neutralizing some of any size disadvantage they might have - offensive rebounding favors length and lower body strength. In a shorthand, size.

So where do your 2023 Boston Celtics sit on the offensive rebounding rankings? It's tempting to get all melodramatic about it. Fallen off a cliff. Up the creek without a paddle. Gone to hell in a handbasket:

This year, .188, for 29th in the league; last year, .240, for 8th in the league.

I got all melodramatic; but in fact this year's Celtics actually are a mediocre defensive team, and (so far at least) are one of the historically great offensive teams. So whatever cliffs, paddles, or handbaskets you might invoke, the poor offensive rebounding does not appear to be consequential for the offense - in fact, it is worth asking if, at least in the case of the Boston Celtics, not crashing the offensive board is contributing to winning.

Rob will certainly help with both of those, but I'm not sure he will make up the whole difference.   

I agree. But I want to emphasize something I was pointing to earlier: how much offensive rebounding a team does is not just a function of personnel; some coaches would just prefer to get back down the court and stop their opponent's early offense. On a spectrum between maximum pressure on the O board and maximum change-ends-and-set-up-the-defense, Joe has placed Boston at the far end.

That is all fair, but entering tonight Boston has been out rebounded by almost 2 boards a game, last year Boston out rebounded its opponents by about 2.5 boards a game.  That is approximately a 4.5 board a game swing.  That is pretty dramatic and can definitely cause issues going forward.