NBA Season 2022-23

[Moranis]

Brown is a top 25 type player, but as we've seen his entire time in Boston, he just doesn't impact winning like many other top 25 type players do.  He had that 3 month stretch at the end of last year, where he was very impactful, but other than that small period, he really hasn't done much in that regard.  During that 33 game stretch, Brown averaged 23.2 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 3.9 apg, 2.4 tpg and his GmSc was 16.3.  His TS% was 58.5, AST% 19.5 and TOV% 10.9.  On the year, his on/off differential per 100 possessions was +5.4 (the best since his 2nd year and only the 3rd time he was positive).  This year he is back to negative and he is way negative at this point at -11.6.  Of the regulars, only Smart is worse at a horrid -14.7. 

And it is worse in the playoffs.  Brown has had a positive on/off differential in the playoffs only his rookie year at +1.3 when he was a back-up that didn't play much.  Even last year on the Finals run, Brown was -1.5 per 100 possessions.  Of the top 8, 4 were positive - Pritchard, Rob, Tatum, and Al, while 4 were negative Brown, White, Smart, and Grant.  I'm not surprised to see the two bigs and a shooter being positive along with Tatum.  That matches what I've witnessed, i.e. Tatum is at his best at SF without Brown on the floor and a shooter (but not scorer) in the backcourt. 

And I know it is early, but this has been the trend for going on 7 seasons now with Brown and Tatum.  It isn't a fluke, and while all metrics have to be taken in context, the on/off differential per 100 possessions I've found to be the most accurate in actually determining impact to winning (Jokic for example has an astronomically high on/off).  If you go through all of the historical greats that were anchors on winning and championship level teams, they almost always are in the +10 or greater range.  On most great teams that have a big 2 or 3, the top players don't have the discrepancy that Tatum and Brown do either.  The Bucks, for example, the last two seasons both Jrue and Giannis are in the same general range (Jrue is actually a bit higher) and Middleton is still very much in the positive.  Last year's Warriors team was incredibly reliant on Curry, but the other starters were all still positive.  Going back to the prior championship level teams, Curry and Durant were both uber elite in on/off differential.  In the Raptors playoff run, Leonard and Lowry, both elite (Leonard missed so many regular season games it is hard to get a gauge).   The Lakers bubble run, Davis and Lebron were both above +15 in the playoffs. 

I like Brown as a player, but he just doesn't move the needle for Boston.  That is why I would have been fine moving him for Durant over the summer and why I wouldn't foreclose moving him this summer either (or at the deadline if things start to go bad this year).  Tatum is the engine of Boston's success and Brown quite simply isn't a great fit next to Tatum.  We've seen that time and time again with Tatum not only upping his totals, but also his efficiency without Brown playing, and while simply removing Brown doesn't devastate Boston in the standings.  The inverse has not been true, in the much smaller sample size of Tatum missing games, Boston is no where near the same level of team.  Boston needs Tatum, but Boston doesn't need Brown.  Brown is nice to have, but as Who said, he is the nice sound system which makes the car a lot nicer, but doesn't make the car function.

You can repeat this over and over and over and over and over and over again, but it doesn't make it right, which is why almost no one agrees with it in the years and years that you have been bringing it up. It's also why, I am positive, no one in Celtic management, or for that matter, almost any other NBA team's management would agree with it. If Jaylen ends up on the open market, good to great teams will do all sorts of stuff to try to bring him into their team, because none of them think that Brown wouldn't move the needle for them.

It doesn't make me wrong either.  I had this exact argument for 2 years with Irving.  I got the same level of criticism then, but I was right then, and I'm right now.  Brown is not a good fit for this team.  He is however a good player, such that his market would be very good because he absolutely could be a better fit on another team.  I think he'd be very good in the Middleton role on the Bucks, as an example.  I think he'd be excellent playing with Jokic or Embiid as well.  He just doesn't fit all that well next to Tatum, and Tatum is BY FAR the Celtics best and most important player. 

[nickagneta]

Brown's +/- numbers are easily explainable and I've done this before debunking your assertions. Let me do it again.

Most coaches in the league have their best players and starters play a very similar substitution pattern. They play from the first 9-12 minutes of each half and the last 6-8 minutes of each half. There are variations from game to game based on matchups and foul issues, but generally, that holds.

Jaylen plays in this pattern. But, since Brad was coach, Jayson does not. Tatum plays the first 5-6 minutes of a half and then usually sits until the other coach brings in his bench, then Tatum goes out to play with the Celtics bench, and then stays in or goes out for a short rest of a minute or two, before returning to end the half with the starters.

I contend Jaylen plays more frequently against better competition because of his substitution pattern and Jayson, very smartly on Boston's coaching staff part if you ask me, plays a lot against the other team's bench players. Much more than Brown.

This would explain a lot of Brown's +/- numbers because when off, Tatum is on and eating up the bench competition. And when Tatum is off, Brown is going up against the opposition's best without his partner in offense. Brown's numbers have remained consistently much lower than Tatum's over year and though team mates have changed, the one constant has been this substitution pattern used by three different coaches.

It's the reason for your numbers and bad and wrong interpretation. It's why reliance on +/- numbers is so faulty. The variables involved such as who you play with and against are ignored and no amount of regression modeling will ever account for it or the substitution patterns/roles that coaches put players into.

I've written this almost exact same post in response to this incorrect assertion of yours several times. I promise I won't again, no matter how many times you bring up your faulty theory any more.

[Moranis]

Brown's +/- numbers are easily explainable and I've done this before debunking your assertions. Let me do it again.

Most coaches in the league have their best players and starters play a very similar substitution pattern. They play from the first 9-12 minutes of each half and the last 6-8 minutes of each half. There are variations from game to game based on matchups and foul issues, but generally, that holds.

Jaylen plays in this pattern. But, since Brad was coach, Jayson does not. Tatum plays the first 5-6 minutes of a half and then usually sits until the other coach brings in his bench, then Tatum goes out to play with the Celtics bench, and then stays in or goes out for a short rest of a minute or two, before returning to end the half with the starters.

I contend Jaylen plays more frequently against better competition because of his substitution pattern and Jayson, very smartly on Boston's coaching staff part if you ask me, plays a lot against the other team's bench players. Much more than Brown.

This would explain a lot of Brown's +/- numbers because when off, Tatum is on and eating up the bench competition. And when Tatum is off, Brown is going up against the opposition's best without his partner in offense. Brown's numbers have remained consistently much lower than Tatum's over year and though team mates have changed, the one constant has been this substitution pattern used by three different coaches.

It's the reason for your numbers and bad and wrong interpretation. It's why reliance on +/- numbers is so faulty. The variables involved such as who you play with and against are ignored and no amount of regression modeling will ever account for it or the substitution patterns/roles that coaches put players into.

I've written this almost exact same post in response to this incorrect assertion of yours several times. I promise I won't again, no matter how many times you bring up your faulty theory any more.

Which would be fine, if Boston didn't win at a very similar level when Brown doesn't play at all.  That is the problem with your reasoning.  The Celtics do just fine when Brown doesn't play at all and they fall off a cliff when Tatum doesn't play.  There is years and years of evidence of that fact.  Brown quite simply doesn't impact Boston's winning the way he should because he and Tatum aren't a good fit.

[nickagneta]

Brown's +/- numbers are easily explainable and I've done this before debunking your assertions. Let me do it again.

Most coaches in the league have their best players and starters play a very similar substitution pattern. They play from the first 9-12 minutes of each half and the last 6-8 minutes of each half. There are variations from game to game based on matchups and foul issues, but generally, that holds.

Jaylen plays in this pattern. But, since Brad was coach, Jayson does not. Tatum plays the first 5-6 minutes of a half and then usually sits until the other coach brings in his bench, then Tatum goes out to play with the Celtics bench, and then stays in or goes out for a short rest of a minute or two, before returning to end the half with the starters.

I contend Jaylen plays more frequently against better competition because of his substitution pattern and Jayson, very smartly on Boston's coaching staff part if you ask me, plays a lot against the other team's bench players. Much more than Brown.

This would explain a lot of Brown's +/- numbers because when off, Tatum is on and eating up the bench competition. And when Tatum is off, Brown is going up against the opposition's best without his partner in offense. Brown's numbers have remained consistently much lower than Tatum's over year and though team mates have changed, the one constant has been this substitution pattern used by three different coaches.

It's the reason for your numbers and bad and wrong interpretation. It's why reliance on +/- numbers is so faulty. The variables involved such as who you play with and against are ignored and no amount of regression modeling will ever account for it or the substitution patterns/roles that coaches put players into.

I've written this almost exact same post in response to this incorrect assertion of yours several times. I promise I won't again, no matter how many times you bring up your faulty theory any more.

Which would be fine, if Boston didn't win at a very similar level when Brown doesn't play at all.  That is the problem with your reasoning.  The Celtics do just fine when Brown doesn't play at all and they fall off a cliff when Tatum doesn't play.  There is years and years of evidence of that fact.  Brown quite simply doesn't impact Boston's winning the way he should because he and Tatum aren't a good fit.

Again, the variables involved in those noisy W-L stats are unbelievable. I have said many times, this is a terrible way to look at things. It's bad logic given the variance involved. We've been over this tons of times. I"m not doing it again.

[Vermont Green]

I think this debate is interesting.  I am not sure the answer.  I go more on what I see on the court first and stats more as a secondary consideration.  Both matter.  Both should be considered.

Last season, Brown was +9.9 per 100 possessions.  Tatum was 12.0, White was 11.7, and RWill was 10.4, the only regulars with higher numbers.  I can't look at that and conclude that White is better than Brown, based on what I see on the court.  But I do look at these numbers and conclude that all of these players are valuable and impacting winning.  That is the quantitative part.

Qualitatively, when I see Brown play, I see a top 25 player (seems to be agreement on that) and I see a player that is offensively inefficient, even kind of sloppy with the ball at time, but a player that helps the team win.

Brown does seem to play a lot when Tatum is out.  Checking the numbers on this, Brown has 438 minutes this season with Tatum (+15) and 139 minutes without Tatum (+13).  Tatum without Brown, +83 in 198 minutes.  This is for this season.  Seems to support the premise that they are not good together.  Last season though, the best combination was when both were on the court (+454 in 1425 min).  They were just fine together and actually good when only one of them.  Just Brown, +25 in 610 min and just Tatum +247 in 1064 min.  Much better with just Tatum than just Brown.

Now I don't know if Brown is playing more with lesser players than Tatum as was suggested in a post above.  I can't think of a way to sort for that.  Subjectively, it seems that when it is one or the other, the other 4 players on the court are about the same.

What does all this mean?  To me it still means that I think Brown is an all star level player and I think he fits just fine next to Tatum.  I would rather have an all star big who can score 25 pts next to Tatum but I fine with an all star SG in Brown.

[celticsclay]

Brown's +/- numbers are easily explainable and I've done this before debunking your assertions. Let me do it again.

Most coaches in the league have their best players and starters play a very similar substitution pattern. They play from the first 9-12 minutes of each half and the last 6-8 minutes of each half. There are variations from game to game based on matchups and foul issues, but generally, that holds.

Jaylen plays in this pattern. But, since Brad was coach, Jayson does not. Tatum plays the first 5-6 minutes of a half and then usually sits until the other coach brings in his bench, then Tatum goes out to play with the Celtics bench, and then stays in or goes out for a short rest of a minute or two, before returning to end the half with the starters.

I contend Jaylen plays more frequently against better competition because of his substitution pattern and Jayson, very smartly on Boston's coaching staff part if you ask me, plays a lot against the other team's bench players. Much more than Brown.

This would explain a lot of Brown's +/- numbers because when off, Tatum is on and eating up the bench competition. And when Tatum is off, Brown is going up against the opposition's best without his partner in offense. Brown's numbers have remained consistently much lower than Tatum's over year and though team mates have changed, the one constant has been this substitution pattern used by three different coaches.

It's the reason for your numbers and bad and wrong interpretation. It's why reliance on +/- numbers is so faulty. The variables involved such as who you play with and against are ignored and no amount of regression modeling will ever account for it or the substitution patterns/roles that coaches put players into.

I've written this almost exact same post in response to this incorrect assertion of yours several times. I promise I won't again, no matter how many times you bring up your faulty theory any more.

Which would be fine, if Boston didn't win at a very similar level when Brown doesn't play at all.  That is the problem with your reasoning.  The Celtics do just fine when Brown doesn't play at all and they fall off a cliff when Tatum doesn't play.  There is years and years of evidence of that fact.  Brown quite simply doesn't impact Boston's winning the way he should because he and Tatum aren't a good fit.

Again, the variables involved in those noisy W-L stats are unbelievable. I have said many times, this is a terrible way to look at things. It's bad logic given the variance involved. We've been over this tons of times. I"m not doing it again.

Yea frankly I think it’s been beaten to death here. Especially when the only new data is a line game this year against the worst team in the east. I kind of thought I general people would just be happy with how well we are playing.

[Goldstar88]

Ben Simmons return to Philly. Should be interesting…

[blink]

Ben Simmons return to Philly. Should be interesting…

Will he be greeted with flowers and chocolates by the Philly fans? lol  This one is probably worth watching.

[Moranis]

Brown's +/- numbers are easily explainable and I've done this before debunking your assertions. Let me do it again.

Most coaches in the league have their best players and starters play a very similar substitution pattern. They play from the first 9-12 minutes of each half and the last 6-8 minutes of each half. There are variations from game to game based on matchups and foul issues, but generally, that holds.

Jaylen plays in this pattern. But, since Brad was coach, Jayson does not. Tatum plays the first 5-6 minutes of a half and then usually sits until the other coach brings in his bench, then Tatum goes out to play with the Celtics bench, and then stays in or goes out for a short rest of a minute or two, before returning to end the half with the starters.

I contend Jaylen plays more frequently against better competition because of his substitution pattern and Jayson, very smartly on Boston's coaching staff part if you ask me, plays a lot against the other team's bench players. Much more than Brown.

This would explain a lot of Brown's +/- numbers because when off, Tatum is on and eating up the bench competition. And when Tatum is off, Brown is going up against the opposition's best without his partner in offense. Brown's numbers have remained consistently much lower than Tatum's over year and though team mates have changed, the one constant has been this substitution pattern used by three different coaches.

It's the reason for your numbers and bad and wrong interpretation. It's why reliance on +/- numbers is so faulty. The variables involved such as who you play with and against are ignored and no amount of regression modeling will ever account for it or the substitution patterns/roles that coaches put players into.

I've written this almost exact same post in response to this incorrect assertion of yours several times. I promise I won't again, no matter how many times you bring up your faulty theory any more.

Which would be fine, if Boston didn't win at a very similar level when Brown doesn't play at all.  That is the problem with your reasoning.  The Celtics do just fine when Brown doesn't play at all and they fall off a cliff when Tatum doesn't play.  There is years and years of evidence of that fact.  Brown quite simply doesn't impact Boston's winning the way he should because he and Tatum aren't a good fit.

Again, the variables involved in those noisy W-L stats are unbelievable. I have said many times, this is a terrible way to look at things. It's bad logic given the variance involved. We've been over this tons of times. I"m not doing it again.

that is fair, but there is a reason historically that on/off differential correlates very well with the all time great players and team wins.  It isn't actually noisy after a certain number of games.  The most valuable players are the ones whose team doesn't play very well when they aren't in the game.  For Boston that is Tatum and it most certainly is not Brown.

[Goldstar88]

Ben Simmons return to Philly. Should be interesting…

Will he be greeted with flowers and chocolates by the Philly fans? lol  This one is probably worth watching.

Not so much, haha. He actually made his free throws. I was shocked he could do that with the whole building booing him.

[blink]

Ben Simmons return to Philly. Should be interesting…

Will he be greeted with flowers and chocolates by the Philly fans? lol  This one is probably worth watching.

Not so much, haha. He actually made his free throws. I was shocked he could do that with the whole building booing him.

Lol nets getting beat by a Philly team with no Embiid, harden, Macy….lol

[liam]

Ben Simmons return to Philly. Should be interesting…

Will he be greeted with flowers and chocolates by the Philly fans? lol  This one is probably worth watching.

Not so much, haha. He actually made his free throws. I was shocked he could do that with the whole building booing him.

Lol nets getting beat by a Philly team with no Embiid, harden, Macy….lol

 

[SparzWizard]

Russell Westbrook is expected to sign with Miami Heat if Lakers buy him out. Dang

[Who]

Russell Westbrook is expected to sign with Miami Heat if Lakers buy him out. Dang

Why dang? He'll just make them worse.

Not a threat as it is. Even less of a threat with him.

[celticsclay]

Russell Westbrook is expected to sign with Miami Heat if Lakers buy him out. Dang

Why would lakers buy him out? He has been a real useful bench player. Obviously extremely overpaid for that role, but if you just cut him you get nothing for it.