NBA Season 2022-23

[nickagneta]

If Brown stays mostly healthy and Boston doesn't collapse, there is almost no way he isn't an all star this year.

Brown is off to a slow start this season.  Tatum had a slow start last season.  Brown's advanced stats were just fine last season, as expected for a #2 star.  I know in theory the all star selection is supposed to be based on just this season but that tends not to be the case.  I feel Brown is an all star caliber player, even this season with the slow start.  And I expect those voting will in general feel the same.

Want to explain "slow start"?

He's averaging career bests in points per game, rebounds per game, assists per game, FG%, 2PT%, FT%, TS%, OReb%, DReb%, Reb% and Usg%.

He isn't having the best year shooting threes or turning the ball over, but every other part of his game is great, scoring over 30 5 times and leading the team in scoring and rebounding many times. I think that's far from starting slow, unless you only mean shooting threes.

[Kernewek]

If Brown stays mostly healthy and Boston doesn't collapse, there is almost no way he isn't an all star this year.

Brown is off to a slow start this season.  Tatum had a slow start last season.  Brown's advanced stats were just fine last season, as expected for a #2 star.  I know in theory the all star selection is supposed to be based on just this season but that tends not to be the case.  I feel Brown is an all star caliber player, even this season with the slow start.  And I expect those voting will in general feel the same.

Want to explain "slow start"?

He's averaging career bests in points per game, rebounds per game, assists per game, FG%, 2PT%, FT%, TS%, OReb%, DReb%, Reb% and Usg%.

He isn't having the best year shooting threes or turning the ball over, but every other part of his game is great, scoring over 30 5 times and leading the team in scoring and rebounding many times. I think that's far from starting slow, unless you only mean shooting threes.

Yeah I feel like the team is playing very well, including Jaylen (save turnovers/assists).

[Moranis]

If Brown stays mostly healthy and Boston doesn't collapse, there is almost no way he isn't an all star this year.

Brown is off to a slow start this season.  Tatum had a slow start last season.  Brown's advanced stats were just fine last season, as expected for a #2 star.  I know in theory the all star selection is supposed to be based on just this season but that tends not to be the case.  I feel Brown is an all star caliber player, even this season with the slow start.  And I expect those voting will in general feel the same.

Want to explain "slow start"?

He's averaging career bests in points per game, rebounds per game, assists per game, FG%, 2PT%, FT%, TS%, OReb%, DReb%, Reb% and Usg%.

He isn't having the best year shooting threes or turning the ball over, but every other part of his game is great, scoring over 30 5 times and leading the team in scoring and rebounding many times. I think that's far from starting slow, unless you only mean shooting threes.

Yeah I feel like the team is playing very well, including Jaylen (save turnovers/assists).

Rebounding is the actual problem for the C's.  They are getting out rebounded by 2.5 a game.  Last year Boston out rebounded teams by 2.4.  A 5 rebound swing like that is a lot.  Rob will obviously help immensely with that if he ever comes back.  Defense rank has also suffered.  Again, down considerably from last year as the team is currently 20th in DRTG (we were 2nd last year).  Offense is better though, which has helped keep the record good.

[Kernewek]

If Brown stays mostly healthy and Boston doesn't collapse, there is almost no way he isn't an all star this year.

Brown is off to a slow start this season.  Tatum had a slow start last season.  Brown's advanced stats were just fine last season, as expected for a #2 star.  I know in theory the all star selection is supposed to be based on just this season but that tends not to be the case.  I feel Brown is an all star caliber player, even this season with the slow start.  And I expect those voting will in general feel the same.

Want to explain "slow start"?

He's averaging career bests in points per game, rebounds per game, assists per game, FG%, 2PT%, FT%, TS%, OReb%, DReb%, Reb% and Usg%.

He isn't having the best year shooting threes or turning the ball over, but every other part of his game is great, scoring over 30 5 times and leading the team in scoring and rebounding many times. I think that's far from starting slow, unless you only mean shooting threes.

Yeah I feel like the team is playing very well, including Jaylen (save turnovers/assists).

Rebounding is the actual problem for the C's.  They are getting out rebounded by 2.5 a game.  Last year Boston out rebounded teams by 2.4.  A 5 rebound swing like that is a lot.  Rob will obviously help immensely with that if he ever comes back.  Defense rank has also suffered.  Again, down considerably from last year as the team is currently 20th in DRTG (we were 2nd last year).  Offense is better though, which has helped keep the record good.

Yeah the defense and rebounding was always going to suffer with Timelord out - but I'll take these 16 games over last year's 16 games (although a bit worrying if we fall to earth in February 2023).

[Who]

Jaylen 3.4 assists per game vs 3.4 turnovers per game.

1:1 assist:turnover ratio.

Not good.

That is a solid number for a center. Not a wing player.

[Who]

When you have a player who is scoring at 58.4% TS% vs league average of 57.2% and you are a wing player with a 1:1 assist to turnover ratio, you should not expect that player to have a huge impact on your offense.

That player is scoring at a slightly above average scoring efficiency while providing below average assist numbers. So looking after himself at a slightly below average rate + failing to help his teammates while actually being a bit of a negative in terms of harming his teammates with an AST:TOV that bad. So the drop-off in team offense from the passing negates the positives of the scoring.

The more a player like this shoots the ball the more the ball is in the hands of a player who does not improve his teammates, in fact generally harms his teammates (if they any good that is. If they are inept, it can be slightly beneficial). Sorta like Jerry Stackhouse (a worse offender of this due to inferior floor spacer).

This is what Moranis was talking about on the previous page about the W-L with or without Jaylen. That is what the W-L record is pointing too. Jaylen doesn't move the line that much. He is more a decoration on top of the tree than the tree itself (Tatum).

[Roy H.]

When you have a player who is scoring at 58.4% TS% vs league average of 57.2% and you are a wing player with a 1:1 assist to turnover ratio, you should not expect that player to have a huge impact on your offense.

Eh.  Tatum has had a TS% below .584 each of the past four seasons.  Tatum's assist to turnover hasn't been 1:1 over that span, but it's been closer to 4:3. 

Unless the argument is that Tatum hasn't had a positive impact on our offense the past four years, I'm not sure that the stats tell us as much as you're suggesting.

[Who]

When you have a player who is scoring at 58.4% TS% vs league average of 57.2% and you are a wing player with a 1:1 assist to turnover ratio, you should not expect that player to have a huge impact on your offense.

Eh.  Tatum has had a TS% below .584 each of the past four seasons.  Tatum's assist to turnover hasn't been 1:1 over that span, but it's been closer to 4:3. 

Unless the argument is that Tatum hasn't had a positive impact on our offense the past four years, I'm not sure that the stats tell us as much as you're suggesting.

Tatum's assists only improved two years ago. So last two seasons plus the early part of this season has him at 4.4 assists per game to 2.7 turnovers per game so an AST:TO of 1.6:1.0.

Tatum's scoring efficiency has been inconsistent last two years. Slow starts and good finishes. He needs to put together a full season to put himself among the elite (MVP candidates). [Edit: In this ups and downs, Tatum ranges from small impact to massive impact on offense].

[Who]

There is a third factor I did not state in my other post. So scoring efficiency, AST:TO and I would love to see a new stat created that measures AST:FGA or AST : (FGA+FTA) or AST : (FGA+FTA+TOV).

So how many assists does one give to his teammate relative to how many shots (FGA), scoring attempts (FGA+FTA) or overall possessions (FGA+FTA+TOV) a player uses.

I believe that statistic would give us much better insight into players who are very good individual scorers but not good at helping their teammates ... and I believe those measurements would correlate well to how much these scorers impact winning. 

[Kernewek]

I'm splitting the difference between the two because I think the stats are too noisy to bear this out one way or the other thus far, but I would like to point out that the true best player on the Celtics, The Great Forehead, is currently sitting at a .618 TS% and a 4.5:1 A:T ratio.

[Roy H.]

When you have a player who is scoring at 58.4% TS% vs league average of 57.2% and you are a wing player with a 1:1 assist to turnover ratio, you should not expect that player to have a huge impact on your offense.

Eh.  Tatum has had a TS% below .584 each of the past four seasons.  Tatum's assist to turnover hasn't been 1:1 over that span, but it's been closer to 4:3. 

Unless the argument is that Tatum hasn't had a positive impact on our offense the past four years, I'm not sure that the stats tell us as much as you're suggesting.

Tatum's assists only improved two years ago. So last two seasons plus the early part of this season has him at 4.4 assists per game to 2.7 turnovers per game so an AST:TO of 1.6:1.0.

Tatum's scoring efficiency has been inconsistent last two years. Slow starts and good finishes. He needs to put together a full season to put himself among the elite (MVP candidates). [Edit: In this ups and downs, Tatum ranges from small impact to massive impact on offense].

Let's say JB added two assists per game, without additional turnovers.  Does that transform him from a guy who doesn't help us win to a guy having a large impact on offense?  I personally don't see it.

[Who]

Takers vs givers ... and Jaylen is a taker.

In order to have a much larger impact on winning, Jaylen needs to learn to be more of a giver. It is a team sport after all.

Until then, Jaylen is more of a side-piece. A side-piece I am very happy to have. More like an awesome sound system in a car which is really good and you enjoy it but it is not fundamental to the car. What is fundademental is the engine. Jaylen is not an engine. Tatum has become an engine. He drives winning.

[Goldstar88]

I'm splitting the difference between the two because I think the stats are too noisy to bear this out one way or the other thus far, but I would like to point out that the true best player on the Celtics, The Great Forehead, is currently sitting at a .618 TS% and a 4.5:1 A:T ratio.

That’s a good nickname. I like it! 

[Who]

When you have a player who is scoring at 58.4% TS% vs league average of 57.2% and you are a wing player with a 1:1 assist to turnover ratio, you should not expect that player to have a huge impact on your offense.

Eh.  Tatum has had a TS% below .584 each of the past four seasons.  Tatum's assist to turnover hasn't been 1:1 over that span, but it's been closer to 4:3. 

Unless the argument is that Tatum hasn't had a positive impact on our offense the past four years, I'm not sure that the stats tell us as much as you're suggesting.

Tatum's assists only improved two years ago. So last two seasons plus the early part of this season has him at 4.4 assists per game to 2.7 turnovers per game so an AST:TO of 1.6:1.0.

Tatum's scoring efficiency has been inconsistent last two years. Slow starts and good finishes. He needs to put together a full season to put himself among the elite (MVP candidates). [Edit: In this ups and downs, Tatum ranges from small impact to massive impact on offense].

Let's say JB added two assists per game, without additional turnovers.  Does that transform him from a guy who doesn't help us win to a guy having a large impact on offense?  I personally don't see it.

I think there is a balance between shooting and ball movement. You shoot too much and pass too little and it makes it harder for your teammates to perform to their best.

I see this with Jaylen.

I do think two assists extra per game would make a pretty big difference. It is not just the two assists but the other passes that his teammates receive that involve them in the game but they fail to capitalize on.

It involves them in the game, it gives them confidence. The opponent now has to focus on multiple guys instead of keying in on one guy (the volume scorer reluctant passer). This is where I see the team offense go up. Bigger wider impact on team offense.

It is like what Bill Russell said about leadership and Kevin Garnett in 2008. He liked the way KG led because KG put his arms around people and said we will go forward together. Versus some other leaders who rushed forward and tried to drag their teammates behind them (I always thought he was talking about Kobe).

I see this assists vs how much you shoot being key to this issue in terms of whether you are impacting the game individually or whether you are taking your teammates with you and impacting the game collectively.

The issue I see with Jaylen is his play is still to individual. Very talented player but in order to fully harness that talent he has to develop more collective mindset. That is when he will truly become great and take his game to that next level like Tatum has. 

[Kernewek]

I'm splitting the difference between the two because I think the stats are too noisy to bear this out one way or the other thus far, but I would like to point out that the true best player on the Celtics, The Great Forehead, is currently sitting at a .618 TS% and a 4.5:1 A:T ratio.

That’s a good nickname. I like it! 

It's the best, and sadly I can't take credit for it - it's from his time with San Antonio.
https://twitter.com/spurs/status/1479113024141201408
https://www.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/aly4px/comment/efhv1le/?utm_source=reddit&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

Unsure why C's fans aren't as excited about it though