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Celtics Basketball => Celtics Talk => Topic started by: bdm860 on April 20, 2018, 11:43:02 AM

Title: Danny's drafting ability reputation
Post by: bdm860 on April 20, 2018, 11:43:02 AM
It's amazing how fickle things like "drafting ability" can be.  Danny’s been the C’s GM for 15 years now, and in that time it seems like his reputation went from good drafter, to bad drafter, to great drafter.
   
If you asked me, in his first 5 years, I thought Ainge drafted pretty well, especially for a team that was mostly drafting outside of the lottery.  Now he didn’t hit any grand slam home runs, didn't nab any All-NBA/All-Stars in the 2nd round, but he had a couple big hits in Big Al and Rondo, and a lot of solid if unspectacular picks with the rest, many of which he was eventually able to flip for value at some point.  To me the only whiffs were Marcus Banks and using #7 to trade for Telfair, the rest were good moves.  I considered this a good 5 year stretch for Ainge:

'03-'07: Trying to rebuilding around Pierce years
Hits                                  Misses     
Kendrick Perkins                 Marcus Banks
Al Jefferson                        #7 for Telfair
Delonte West
Tony Allen
Gerald Green
Ryan Gomes
Rajon Rondo
Leon Powe
Glen Davis
#5 for Ray Allen


But then once the C's assembled the championship team for '08, Ainge didn't seem to do so well. Definitely had a solid hit in Avery Bradley, and Sullinger contributed all 4 years even if Ainge was unable to get any value for him in the end and was lost for nothing,  but now the hits seemed few and far in between.  Suddenly he wasn't getting those consistent solid hits in the late first rounds like he did when the team was rebuilding, nor was he nabbing any rotation players in the 2nd.  Not only was he not drafting good players, but he was missing out on great players, studs like DeAndre Jordan, Jimmy Butler, Isaiah Thomas, Draymond Green who were all available near where Danny was drafting.  This hurt his reputation too, passing up studs to draft duds.  More misses over the same number of drafts with fewer picks.  Maybe Danny wasn't really a good drafter, and just got lucky over his first 5 years?

'08-'12: Big 3 Era
Hits                                  Misses     
Avery Bradley                    JR Giddens
Jared Sullinger                   JaJuan Johnson
                                        Fab Melo


Then the C's enter a new rebuilding era with Stevens, and at first, Danny's drafting looks a little murkier here.  Guys like Olynyk and Smart were okay where they were drafted, and while Olynyk was lost for nothing he did help win a playoff series coming up huge in Game 7 vs. Washington.  He was a solid contributor all 4 years, and the same can be said for Smart.  They weren’t duds, but it’s hard not to look at Olynyk and not think about how the C’s could have had Giannis, while at the same time wondering if Smart should be brought back and will be worth his next contract.  While not whiffs, these picks weren’t helping his reputation as a drafter.  Then it seemed like a lot of busts and question marks:  James Young was a bust.  RJ Hunter was a bust.  The Rozier pick was (now infamously) given an F. (https://twitter.com/CBSSportsNBA/status/614243589871288320)  Danny tried to trade 4-6 picks for Justice Winslow, he picked Jaylen Brown about 5-6 spots too high, he failed to flip players or picks for Noel or Okafor, he passed up a generational talent in Fultz to draft Tatum, who trades out of the #1 spot?  He let Josh Jackson’s reps bully him into drafting somebody else.  In between the ’16 (Brown) and ’17 (Tatum) drafts, Danny’s reputation has a drafter still hadn’t been repaired.

As of now though, Danny looks like a genius again.  The recent picks that were criticized, now look like gold.  Rozier has ascended to meme status, Brown and Tatum look like studs.  Others laughed at Danny, but now Danny's the one laughing.

'13-'17: The Golden Era of Stevens
Hits                                  Misses         
Kelly Olynyk                      James Young
Marcus Smart                    RJ Hunter
Terry Rozier
Jaylen Brown
Jayson Tatum

(With Yabusele and recent 2nd rounders too soon to tell).


All this to say, I think it's interesting how Danny's drafting reputation has been all over the place, especially how it seems to have flipped recently.  Solid in the first 5 years, disappointing in the contending years, and it didn't look good at first during the Stevens era, but now it looks great.  Still it could swing the other way again (Fultz could have an MVP season, Rozier comes back to earth and is lost for nothing, Brown and Tatum's career trajectory starts to look more like Michael Carter Williams, etc.).  But for now, it's nice that our GM looks like a great drafter again.  In Danny I trust!
Title: Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
Post by: Moranis on April 20, 2018, 12:05:49 PM
think you need a 3rd category of neutral i.e. guys that in a redraft would basically go right around where they were drafted.  And I disagree a bit with how you classify people.  I mean Marcus Smart was the 6th pick in the draft and there is no way he is a top 6 pick in a redraft (I don't even think he'd go in the top 10).  So yeah he has played fine, but if he didn't live up to his pick selection, I have a hard time calling him a hit. 
Title: Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
Post by: tonydelk on April 20, 2018, 12:13:13 PM
think you need a 3rd category of neutral i.e. guys that in a redraft would basically go right around where they were drafted.  And I disagree a bit with how you classify people.  I mean Marcus Smart was the 6th pick in the draft and there is no way he is a top 6 pick in a redraft (I don't even think he'd go in the top 10).  So yeah he has played fine, but if he didn't live up to his pick selection, I have a hard time calling him a hit.

That draft was bad.  Marcus would still be a top 10 pick if the draft was today.  The top 10 was.
Andrew Wiggans
Jabari Parker
Joel Embiid
Aaron Gordon
Dante Exum
Marcus Smart
Julius Randal
Nik Stauskas
Noah Vonleh
Elfrid Payton

Hits in the draft out of the top 10. 
Dario Saric at 12
Zach Lavine at 13
Jusuf Nurkic at 16
Gary Harris at 19
Rodney Hood at 23
Clint Capela at 25
Nikola Jokic at 41
Title: Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
Post by: smokeablount on April 20, 2018, 12:34:12 PM
think you need a 3rd category of neutral i.e. guys that in a redraft would basically go right around where they were drafted.  And I disagree a bit with how you classify people.  I mean Marcus Smart was the 6th pick in the draft and there is no way he is a top 6 pick in a redraft (I don't even think he'd go in the top 10).  So yeah he has played fine, but if he didn't live up to his pick selection, I have a hard time calling him a hit.

That draft was bad.  Marcus would still be a top 10 pick if the draft was today.  The top 10 was.
Andrew Wiggans
Jabari Parker
Joel Embiid
Aaron Gordon
Dante Exum
Marcus Smart
Julius Randal
Nik Stauskas
Noah Vonleh
Elfrid Payton

Hits in the draft out of the top 10. 
Dario Saric at 12
Zach Lavine at 13
Jusuf Nurkic at 16
Gary Harris at 19
Rodney Hood at 23
Clint Capela at 25
Nikola Jokic at 41

If Smart goes top 10 in a redraft, he barely sneaks in at #10.

Of the original top 10, Embiid, Wiggins (still), Gordon and Randle all go ahead of him.  That's 4.

Of the other guys, Jokic, Nurkic, Harris, Saric and Capela all go ahead of him, at least.  That's 5.
Title: Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
Post by: smokeablount on April 20, 2018, 12:40:25 PM
Danny has turned his reputation around, and this is coming from someone who believed he was a better drafter than Danny for half a decade. 

He's missing where it's expected you'll get little help, late in the first round and in the 2nd- but he's nailing his recent top 3 / lottery / near lottery picks, picks he needs to knock out of the park to build an elite team (going 3 or 4 out of 4 with Tatum, JB, Rozier, and maybe Smart). 
Title: Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
Post by: bdm860 on April 20, 2018, 12:58:57 PM
think you need a 3rd category of neutral i.e. guys that in a redraft would basically go right around where they were drafted.  And I disagree a bit with how you classify people.  I mean Marcus Smart was the 6th pick in the draft and there is no way he is a top 6 pick in a redraft (I don't even think he'd go in the top 10).  So yeah he has played fine, but if he didn't live up to his pick selection, I have a hard time calling him a hit.

That's a fair opinion.  Though personally I wouldn't judge a draft pick by where they'd go in a redraft.  Extreme examples being: no way Olajuwon goes #1 in a redraft of '84, doesn't make it a bad pick, and you'd take Harden or Curry ahead of Blake in '09, doesn't mean Blake wasn't a hit.

What determines a "hit" can clearly vary by person, and I definitely lean on the side of if it's not a miss then it must be a hit.  Not a lot of talent in the top 10 the year Smart was drafted, and Danny got a useful player who has been a key contributor to playoff teams.  I consider that a hit in my book.  Though at the same time I will agree all hits aren't created equal, some are walk off grand slam home runs, some are a solo homers, bases clearing doubles, RBI singles, bases empty blooper, etc.  Guys like Smart are more of a single than a home run.  Definitely didn't describe him as a big hit in what I wrote.
Title: Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
Post by: nickagneta on April 20, 2018, 01:21:18 PM
I have said this for year's, as compared to his contemporaries, Danny is an above average drafter. I don't blame him for busts when picking in the 20's, most of those players amount to nothing. I don't blame him for not picking up studs in the 2nd round. Every GM in the draft passed up on those players once, so they are all equally stupid for not having taken that player earlier.

And as for the rest. I think he is above average. Mostly good picks. Some great picks. Some missing out on great players to take an okay player. A bad pick or two.

Danny is pretty much an above average drafter. Not sure how many other GMs you can say have, over the past 15 years been much, much better than Danny. Given that so many GMs don't last that long tells me, a whole lot of them probably didn't have a draft record better than Danny.
Title: Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
Post by: Moranis on April 20, 2018, 01:26:50 PM
think you need a 3rd category of neutral i.e. guys that in a redraft would basically go right around where they were drafted.  And I disagree a bit with how you classify people.  I mean Marcus Smart was the 6th pick in the draft and there is no way he is a top 6 pick in a redraft (I don't even think he'd go in the top 10).  So yeah he has played fine, but if he didn't live up to his pick selection, I have a hard time calling him a hit.

That draft was bad.  Marcus would still be a top 10 pick if the draft was today.  The top 10 was.
Andrew Wiggans
Jabari Parker
Joel Embiid
Aaron Gordon
Dante Exum
Marcus Smart
Julius Randal
Nik Stauskas
Noah Vonleh
Elfrid Payton

Hits in the draft out of the top 10. 
Dario Saric at 12
Zach Lavine at 13
Jusuf Nurkic at 16
Gary Harris at 19
Rodney Hood at 23
Clint Capela at 25
Nikola Jokic at 41

If Smart goes top 10 in a redraft, he barely sneaks in at #10.

Of the original top 10, Embiid, Wiggins (still), Gordon and Randle all go ahead of him.  That's 4.

Of the other guys, Jokic, Nurkic, Harris, Saric and Capela all go ahead of him, at least.  That's 5.
exactly, and I personally think Parker still probably goes ahead of him.  I also think Warren clearly goes ahead of him (19.3 ppg this year with steady improvement all along).  Then you have real arguments on both Lavine and Hood.  Then you have someone like Bogdan Bogdanovic who was a rookie this year, but played quite well.  I mean right now Smart goes ahead of Bogdanovic, but what if Bogdanovic is just getting started.  A team might consider that potential growth.  Smart has been better than guys like Payton, McDermott, Powell, Anderson, etc. but not so much better than I think he would always go ahead of them in a redraft (though he would right now). 

Smart was the 6th pick in the draft, but imo would be from 12-14 in a redraft.  That is much closer to a miss than a hit. 
Title: Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
Post by: celticsclay on April 20, 2018, 01:30:53 PM
think you need a 3rd category of neutral i.e. guys that in a redraft would basically go right around where they were drafted.  And I disagree a bit with how you classify people.  I mean Marcus Smart was the 6th pick in the draft and there is no way he is a top 6 pick in a redraft (I don't even think he'd go in the top 10).  So yeah he has played fine, but if he didn't live up to his pick selection, I have a hard time calling him a hit.

That draft was bad.  Marcus would still be a top 10 pick if the draft was today.  The top 10 was.
Andrew Wiggans
Jabari Parker
Joel Embiid
Aaron Gordon
Dante Exum
Marcus Smart
Julius Randal
Nik Stauskas
Noah Vonleh
Elfrid Payton

Hits in the draft out of the top 10. 
Dario Saric at 12
Zach Lavine at 13
Jusuf Nurkic at 16
Gary Harris at 19
Rodney Hood at 23
Clint Capela at 25
Nikola Jokic at 41

If Smart goes top 10 in a redraft, he barely sneaks in at #10.

Of the original top 10, Embiid, Wiggins (still), Gordon and Randle all go ahead of him.  That's 4.

Of the other guys, Jokic, Nurkic, Harris, Saric and Capela all go ahead of him, at least.  That's 5.

So smart passes 6 of the guys in the top 10 but is still considered a bad pick cause there were a bunch of foreign guys that hit at various points much later? That doesn't seem fair
Title: Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
Post by: Erik on April 20, 2018, 02:38:11 PM
Realistically, no one is really expecting much from a draft pick outside of the lottery -- really outside of the top 5. The important thing is that he knocked his 2 top 5 picks out of the park (most redrafts show Tatum #1 and Brown #2 behind Simmons), and Marcus Smart is a 3 point shot away from being really good (he's still only 23 years old). I personally don't give a Edited.  Profanity and masked profanity are against forum rules and may result in discipline. if R.J Hunter at #28 didn't pan out. He isn't supposed to.

The most important thing for me is that Danny is not afraid to reach if he and Brad really like someone, and Brad is a valuable critic having been an NCAA coach and the guy that discovered Hayward. As long as we have these two guys, I will never judge nor worry about any front office decisions.
Title: Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
Post by: footey on April 20, 2018, 02:51:42 PM
think you need a 3rd category of neutral i.e. guys that in a redraft would basically go right around where they were drafted.  And I disagree a bit with how you classify people.  I mean Marcus Smart was the 6th pick in the draft and there is no way he is a top 6 pick in a redraft (I don't even think he'd go in the top 10).  So yeah he has played fine, but if he didn't live up to his pick selection, I have a hard time calling him a hit.

Please list the 10 guys from that draft that are better than him today.
Title: Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
Post by: SHAQATTACK on April 20, 2018, 02:55:09 PM
He does Ok on 1-3 positions .   But bigs he seems to miss alot .

Tatum negated some of his worse picks Fab and JJJ  .

He chased Giannis all over Europe and then doesn't take him......SMH .....i just need multiple curse words here to express my disappointment in his judgement...

KO ......smh ......yuk.
Title: Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
Post by: footey on April 20, 2018, 02:56:19 PM
I think Danny is decent but not great at drafting.

He has done well so far when picking high (top 10) in the draft; no blown picks to my knowledge. 

He has hit/miss middle to late first round. 

His 2nd round picks seem better than most, although I don't have a good feel for just how well other teams do in this area. Guys like Powe, Davis, Gomes and even Semi seem to outplay their draft order. Would be curious to see how long his second round picks make/stick around compared to other teams'.
Title: Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
Post by: kraidstar on April 20, 2018, 04:11:59 PM
think you need a 3rd category of neutral i.e. guys that in a redraft would basically go right around where they were drafted.  And I disagree a bit with how you classify people.  I mean Marcus Smart was the 6th pick in the draft and there is no way he is a top 6 pick in a redraft (I don't even think he'd go in the top 10).  So yeah he has played fine, but if he didn't live up to his pick selection, I have a hard time calling him a hit.

That draft was bad.  Marcus would still be a top 10 pick if the draft was today.  The top 10 was.
Andrew Wiggans
Jabari Parker
Joel Embiid
Aaron Gordon
Dante Exum
Marcus Smart
Julius Randal
Nik Stauskas
Noah Vonleh
Elfrid Payton

Hits in the draft out of the top 10. 
Dario Saric at 12
Zach Lavine at 13
Jusuf Nurkic at 16
Gary Harris at 19
Rodney Hood at 23
Clint Capela at 25
Nikola Jokic at 41

If Smart goes top 10 in a redraft, he barely sneaks in at #10.

Of the original top 10, Embiid, Wiggins (still), Gordon and Randle all go ahead of him.  That's 4.

Of the other guys, Jokic, Nurkic, Harris, Saric and Capela all go ahead of him, at least.  That's 5.

Eh, I don't like Nurkic at all. Empty stats.

And the Lakers the last couple years have been loathe to give Randle the minutes you'd think he'd get if he was so great. Something is going on there. Though he does seem like a competitor.

Let's not forget too that Smart still has upside. If he ever learns to shoot he will be a very valuable player with all-star potential.
Title: Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
Post by: byennie on April 20, 2018, 04:22:21 PM
If Smart goes top 10 in a redraft, he barely sneaks in at #10.

Of the original top 10, Embiid, Wiggins (still), Gordon and Randle all go ahead of him.  That's 4.

Of the other guys, Jokic, Nurkic, Harris, Saric and Capela all go ahead of him, at least.  That's 5.

There's no reasonable way to hold Capela or Jokic against him. Those guys went #25 and #41 and no team remotely considered them top-10.

The "redraft" logic where a guy goes slightly later is totally flawed. You can't hold the entire draft year against the GM where a 2nd rounder becomes a star.

Embiid, Wiggins, Gordon weren't on the board.

Saric would have made us wait 2 more years.

We needed a PG. Smart could have gone #2 the year before.

Randle, sure. The next guy picked might be slightly better right now.

I just don't see how Smart was a bad pick at #6 in that draft, unless you're fishing for reasons or making unfair comparisons like Jokic.
Title: Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
Post by: celticsclay on April 20, 2018, 04:29:59 PM
If Smart goes top 10 in a redraft, he barely sneaks in at #10.

Of the original top 10, Embiid, Wiggins (still), Gordon and Randle all go ahead of him.  That's 4.

Of the other guys, Jokic, Nurkic, Harris, Saric and Capela all go ahead of him, at least.  That's 5.

There's no reasonable way to hold Capela or Jokic against him. Those guys went #25 and #41 and no team remotely considered them top-10.

The "redraft" logic where a guy goes slightly later is totally flawed. You can't hold the entire draft year against the GM where a 2nd rounder becomes a star.

Embiid, Wiggins, Gordon weren't on the board.

Saric would have made us wait 2 more years.

We needed a PG. Smart could have gone #2 the year before.

Randle, sure. The next guy picked might be slightly better right now.

I just don't see how Smart was a bad pick at #6 in that draft, unless you're fishing for reasons or making unfair comparisons like Jokic.

I agree with all of this..
Title: Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
Post by: ImShakHeIsShaq on April 20, 2018, 05:01:10 PM
If Smart goes top 10 in a redraft, he barely sneaks in at #10.

Of the original top 10, Embiid, Wiggins (still), Gordon and Randle all go ahead of him.  That's 4.

Of the other guys, Jokic, Nurkic, Harris, Saric and Capela all go ahead of him, at least.  That's 5.

There's no reasonable way to hold Capela or Jokic against him. Those guys went #25 and #41 and no team remotely considered them top-10.

The "redraft" logic where a guy goes slightly later is totally flawed. You can't hold the entire draft year against the GM where a 2nd rounder becomes a star.

Embiid, Wiggins, Gordon weren't on the board.

Saric would have made us wait 2 more years.

We needed a PG. Smart could have gone #2 the year before.

Randle, sure. The next guy picked might be slightly better right now.

I just don't see how Smart was a bad pick at #6 in that draft, unless you're fishing for reasons or making unfair comparisons like Jokic.

Preach and Amen!!
Title: Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
Post by: Green-18 on April 20, 2018, 05:17:44 PM
If Smart goes top 10 in a redraft, he barely sneaks in at #10.

Of the original top 10, Embiid, Wiggins (still), Gordon and Randle all go ahead of him.  That's 4.

Of the other guys, Jokic, Nurkic, Harris, Saric and Capela all go ahead of him, at least.  That's 5.

There's no reasonable way to hold Capela or Jokic against him. Those guys went #25 and #41 and no team remotely considered them top-10.

The "redraft" logic where a guy goes slightly later is totally flawed. You can't hold the entire draft year against the GM where a 2nd rounder becomes a star.

Embiid, Wiggins, Gordon weren't on the board.

Saric would have made us wait 2 more years.

We needed a PG. Smart could have gone #2 the year before.

Randle, sure. The next guy picked might be slightly better right now.

I just don't see how Smart was a bad pick at #6 in that draft, unless you're fishing for reasons or making unfair comparisons like Jokic.

Preach and Amen!!

I'll be the 3rd to agree with this completely.  In context Marcus is absolutely a "hit".
Title: Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
Post by: nickagneta on April 20, 2018, 05:27:25 PM
Always hate the whole "In a redraft player x would have gone lower so he was a bad pick where he was chosen"

Blake Griffin and James Harden aren't bad picks because Steph Curry was chosen after them.

Same for John Wall because Cousins and George were selected after him. Same for the Greg Monroe pick because George and Hayward were taken after him.

And Valanciunas wasn't a bad pick because players chosen much later like Butler, Kawhi and IT were better than him.
Title: Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
Post by: Moranis on April 20, 2018, 11:39:24 PM
Always hate the whole "In a redraft player x would have gone lower so he was a bad pick where he was chosen"

Blake Griffin and James Harden aren't bad picks because Steph Curry was chosen after them.

Same for John Wall because Cousins and George were selected after him. Same for the Greg Monroe pick because George and Hayward were taken after him.

And Valanciunas wasn't a bad pick because players chosen much later like Butler, Kawhi and IT were better than him.
Harden was the 3rd pick but the 2nd best player from his draft. That is a hit by any measure.  Blake though is more questionable as Curry and Harden are clearly better and DeRozan probably is as well. Then couple that with Blake not only missing a full season but also constantly being injured and I think you could quite easily say Blake was a miss as the #1 pick in that draft. Any time a top 5 pick starts dropping at least 2 if not 3 spots in value it is much easier to say it is a miss rather than a hit.
Title: Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
Post by: nickagneta on April 21, 2018, 12:12:42 AM
Always hate the whole "In a redraft player x would have gone lower so he was a bad pick where he was chosen"

Blake Griffin and James Harden aren't bad picks because Steph Curry was chosen after them.

Same for John Wall because Cousins and George were selected after him. Same for the Greg Monroe pick because George and Hayward were taken after him.

And Valanciunas wasn't a bad pick because players chosen much later like Butler, Kawhi and IT were better than him.
Harden was the 3rd pick but the 2nd best player from his draft. That is a hit by any measure.  Blake though is more questionable as Curry and Harden are clearly better and DeRozan probably is as well. Then couple that with Blake not only missing a full season but also constantly being injured and I think you could quite easily say Blake was a miss as the #1 pick in that draft. Any time a top 5 pick starts dropping at least 2 if not 3 spots in value it is much easier to say it is a miss rather than a hit.
Completely disagree and have nothing more to say on the matter.
Title: Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
Post by: gouki88 on April 21, 2018, 12:13:50 AM
Always hate the whole "In a redraft player x would have gone lower so he was a bad pick where he was chosen"

Blake Griffin and James Harden aren't bad picks because Steph Curry was chosen after them.

Same for John Wall because Cousins and George were selected after him. Same for the Greg Monroe pick because George and Hayward were taken after him.

And Valanciunas wasn't a bad pick because players chosen much later like Butler, Kawhi and IT were better than him.
Harden was the 3rd pick but the 2nd best player from his draft. That is a hit by any measure.  Blake though is more questionable as Curry and Harden are clearly better and DeRozan probably is as well. Then couple that with Blake not only missing a full season but also constantly being injured and I think you could quite easily say Blake was a miss as the #1 pick in that draft. Any time a top 5 pick starts dropping at least 2 if not 3 spots in value it is much easier to say it is a miss rather than a hit.
Are you seriously arguing that Blake was a miss?
Title: Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
Post by: pokeKingCurtis on April 21, 2018, 12:36:12 AM
Regarding Smart, check out the average 6th pick -

2017 - Jonathan Isaac
2016 - Buddy Hield
2015 - Willie Cauley Stein
2014 - Marcus Smart
2013 - Nerlens Noel
2012 - Damian Lillard
2011 - Jan Vesely
2010 - Ekpe Udoh
2009 - Jonny Flynn
2008 - Danilo Gallinari
2007 - Yi Jianlian
2006 - Brandon Roy
2005 - Martell Webster
2004 - Josh Childress
2003 - Chris Kaman
2002 - Dajuan Wagner
2001 - Shane Battier
2000 - DerMarr Johnson
1999 - Wally Szczerbiak
1998 - Robert Traylor
1997 - Ron Mercer
1996 - Antoine Walker

There's of course a lot of noise, I recall a reddit post suggesting that the second pick has expected less value than the third based on a certain advanced metric. But this gives you a rough idea - Smart does not seem to be a miss based on just an eye test of these players.

For the Doc years one pet argument I have is that Doc has had influence over drafting, and probably player development. But now that you lay it out like this, it seems even in his "bad" years he's hit his fair share even in the late first.

Rather than thinking of all the missed opportunities, think about how he's made a solid 40% of his picks picking 16 or after.

Contrast this to the Clippers, who have been notoriously bad at developing talent in recent years - if they'd even hit 20% of their draft picks after getting Blake Griffin, they would have had roughly 2 more rotational players to put alongside CP3/Blake/Jordan (just based on the fact that they've made 9 picks after Blake, none of which are noteworthy players besides Aminu, and none are even on their roster now).
Title: Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
Post by: mr. dee on April 21, 2018, 04:07:31 AM
It's amazing how fickle things like "drafting ability" can be.  Danny’s been the C’s GM for 15 years now, and in that time it seems like his reputation went from good drafter, to bad drafter, to great drafter.
   
If you asked me, in his first 5 years, I thought Ainge drafted pretty well, especially for a team that was mostly drafting outside of the lottery.  Now he didn’t hit any grand slam home runs, didn't nab any All-NBA/All-Stars in the 2nd round, but he had a couple big hits in Big Al and Rondo, and a lot of solid if unspectacular picks with the rest, many of which he was eventually able to flip for value at some point.  To me the only whiffs were Marcus Banks and using #7 to trade for Telfair, the rest were good moves.  I considered this a good 5 year stretch for Ainge:

'03-'07: Trying to rebuilding around Pierce years
Hits                                  Misses     
Kendrick Perkins                 Marcus Banks
Al Jefferson                        #7 for Telfair
Delonte West
Tony Allen
Gerald Green
Ryan Gomes
Rajon Rondo
Leon Powe
Glen Davis
#5 for Ray Allen


But then once the C's assembled the championship team for '08, Ainge didn't seem to do so well. Definitely had a solid hit in Avery Bradley, and Sullinger contributed all 4 years even if Ainge was unable to get any value for him in the end and was lost for nothing,  but now the hits seemed few and far in between.  Suddenly he wasn't getting those consistent solid hits in the late first rounds like he did when the team was rebuilding, nor was he nabbing any rotation players in the 2nd.  Not only was he not drafting good players, but he was missing out on great players, studs like DeAndre Jordan, Jimmy Butler, Isaiah Thomas, Draymond Green who were all available near where Danny was drafting.  This hurt his reputation too, passing up studs to draft duds.  More misses over the same number of drafts with fewer picks.  Maybe Danny wasn't really a good drafter, and just got lucky over his first 5 years?

'08-'12: Big 3 Era
Hits                                  Misses     
Avery Bradley                    JR Giddens
Jared Sullinger                   JaJuan Johnson
                                        Fab Melo


Then the C's enter a new rebuilding era with Stevens, and at first, Danny's drafting looks a little murkier here.  Guys like Olynyk and Smart were okay where they were drafted, and while Olynyk was lost for nothing he did help win a playoff series coming up huge in Game 7 vs. Washington.  He was a solid contributor all 4 years, and the same can be said for Smart.  They weren’t duds, but it’s hard not to look at Olynyk and not think about how the C’s could have had Giannis, while at the same time wondering if Smart should be brought back and will be worth his next contract.  While not whiffs, these picks weren’t helping his reputation as a drafter.  Then it seemed like a lot of busts and question marks:  James Young was a bust.  RJ Hunter was a bust.  The Rozier pick was (now infamously) given an F. (https://twitter.com/CBSSportsNBA/status/614243589871288320)  Danny tried to trade 4-6 picks for Justice Winslow, he picked Jaylen Brown about 5-6 spots too high, he failed to flip players or picks for Noel or Okafor, he passed up a generational talent in Fultz to draft Tatum, who trades out of the #1 spot?  He let Josh Jackson’s reps bully him into drafting somebody else.  In between the ’16 (Brown) and ’17 (Tatum) drafts, Danny’s reputation has a drafter still hadn’t been repaired.

As of now though, Danny looks like a genius again.  The recent picks that were criticized, now look like gold.  Rozier has ascended to meme status, Brown and Tatum look like studs.  Others laughed at Danny, but now Danny's the one laughing.

'13-'17: The Golden Era of Stevens
Hits                                  Misses         
Kelly Olynyk                      James Young
Marcus Smart                    RJ Hunter
Terry Rozier
Jaylen Brown
Jayson Tatum

(With Yabusele and recent 2nd rounders too soon to tell).


All this to say, I think it's interesting how Danny's drafting reputation has been all over the place, especially how it seems to have flipped recently.  Solid in the first 5 years, disappointing in the contending years, and it didn't look good at first during the Stevens era, but now it looks great.  Still it could swing the other way again (Fultz could have an MVP season, Rozier comes back to earth and is lost for nothing, Brown and Tatum's career trajectory starts to look more like Michael Carter Williams, etc.).  But for now, it's nice that our GM looks like a great drafter again.  In Danny I trust!

 You forgot E'twaun Moore. He's a solid starter that about to enter the second round this season with the Pelicans.
Title: Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
Post by: timpiker on April 21, 2018, 10:42:47 AM
I think "draft success", especially outside the lottery, has a LOT to do with the coach....nurturing, minutes, encouragement, right circumstances....

Compare Doc to Brad.  Which one do you think would bring a rookie along the right way?  See what I mean?
Title: Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
Post by: nostar on April 21, 2018, 12:40:07 PM
I read somewhere that the Thunder have re-hired Rob Hennigan as Assistant GM, and it made me want take a look in to his draft history and transactions over his 5.5 year run in Orlando.

2012   1   19   Andrew Nicholson
2012   2   49   Kyle O'Quinn
2013   1   2   Victor Oladipo
2013   2   51   Romero Osby
2014   1   4   Aaron Gordon
2014   1   12   Dario Šarić
2015   1   5   Mario Hezonja
2015   2   51   Tyler Harvey
2016   1   11   Domantas Sabonis
2016   2   41   Stephen Zimmerman
2016   2   47   Jake Layman

Drafting is a crap shoot and everyone misses, but Oladipo, Gordon, Saric, and Sabonis is a very promising team. Consider that they also had Mo Harkless, Tobias Harris, E'Twaun Moore and Nikola Vucevic as either 1st or 2nd year players when Hennigan took over, and that is kind of a good set of players to work with toward rebuilding.

Of course if Hennigan isn't making trades to stunt their team, they may not be in position to have all of those players. Mostly I wanted to focus on the fact that, while Hennigan is an okay drafter, he just happened to be really terrible at everything else.

Guys like Danny Ainge are rare. He has an above average drafting record and a nearly unimpeachable trade history, in addition to hiring great coaches and staff (Zarren shoutout!).
Title: Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
Post by: Erik on April 21, 2018, 12:55:28 PM
Just to set the record straight, Philly is the one that “drafted” Saric. Orlando was just their proxy.
Title: Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
Post by: smokeablount on April 21, 2018, 01:07:27 PM
If Smart goes top 10 in a redraft, he barely sneaks in at #10.

Of the original top 10, Embiid, Wiggins (still), Gordon and Randle all go ahead of him.  That's 4.

Of the other guys, Jokic, Nurkic, Harris, Saric and Capela all go ahead of him, at least.  That's 5.

There's no reasonable way to hold Capela or Jokic against him. Those guys went #25 and #41 and no team remotely considered them top-10.

The "redraft" logic where a guy goes slightly later is totally flawed. You can't hold the entire draft year against the GM where a 2nd rounder becomes a star.

Embiid, Wiggins, Gordon weren't on the board.

Saric would have made us wait 2 more years.

We needed a PG. Smart could have gone #2 the year before.

Randle, sure. The next guy picked might be slightly better right now.

I just don't see how Smart was a bad pick at #6 in that draft, unless you're fishing for reasons or making unfair comparisons like Jokic.

I agree with all of this..

Relax fellas, in the very next post I call Smart a hit.

He just doesn’t go top 10 in a redraft.
Title: Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
Post by: tazzmaniac on April 21, 2018, 03:07:24 PM
I read somewhere that the Thunder have re-hired Rob Hennigan as Assistant GM, and it made me want take a look in to his draft history and transactions over his 5.5 year run in Orlando.

2012   1   19   Andrew Nicholson
2012   2   49   Kyle O'Quinn
2013   1   2   Victor Oladipo
2013   2   51   Romero Osby
2014   1   4   Aaron Gordon
2014   1   12   Dario Šarić
2015   1   5   Mario Hezonja
2015   2   51   Tyler Harvey
2016   1   11   Domantas Sabonis
2016   2   41   Stephen Zimmerman
2016   2   47   Jake Layman

Drafting is a crap shoot and everyone misses, but Oladipo, Gordon, Saric, and Sabonis is a very promising team. Consider that they also had Mo Harkless, Tobias Harris, E'Twaun Moore and Nikola Vucevic as either 1st or 2nd year players when Hennigan took over, and that is kind of a good set of players to work with toward rebuilding.

Of course if Hennigan isn't making trades to stunt their team, they may not be in position to have all of those players. Mostly I wanted to focus on the fact that, while Hennigan is an okay drafter, he just happened to be really terrible at everything else.

Guys like Danny Ainge are rare. He has an above average drafting record and a nearly unimpeachable trade history, in addition to hiring great coaches and staff (Zarren shoutout!).
He drafted Saric for the Sixers.  He traded the #12 (Saric) plus a future protected Sixers 1st (via Howard trade) plus a 2nd round pick to get the #10 (Payton).  The Sixers would have taken Saric at #10.  So he got swindled by Hinkie.     
Title: Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
Post by: Big333223 on April 21, 2018, 05:06:58 PM
The problem with these conversations is we don't have much to compare to. How often does an average GM hit or miss on a prospect?

My sense is drafting is hard and Danny has made enough good picks over the years for me to feel relatively confident in whoever he and his team select and he's missed enough to keep me from worshipping them.
Title: Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
Post by: Erik on April 21, 2018, 05:33:49 PM
I also want to point out that it doesn’t mean someone is good at picking when they get Simmons at 1 or Oladipo at 2. That was where they were supposed to be drafted. Being good at drafting is when you reach successfully (Jaylen Brown) or side step mines (everyone that passed on Nerlens), or trading up or down because you believe in someone. If the kid falls in your lap, it doesn’t signal genius.
Title: Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
Post by: IDreamCeltics on April 21, 2018, 05:38:53 PM
15 Years as a GM and he's never drafted a superstar... That's pretty wild.

I guess Rondo is the closest thing?
Title: Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
Post by: Big333223 on April 21, 2018, 06:07:24 PM
15 Years as a GM and he's never drafted a superstar... That's pretty wild.

I guess Rondo is the closest thing?

Is it?

Over that 15 year period, by my count, there have only been about 20 players I would call "superstars" drafted. Up until the Brooklyn picks (that became Brown and Tatum) Danny only had 3 top ten selections and 2 of those were traded away (in 2006 and 2007, the 3rd was Smart).

Given that the C's have only missed the playoffs 3 times during his tenure and the only time he's ever had picks in the top 4, he selected 2 players that appear to have star potential, I don't think it's wild at all.
Title: Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
Post by: Moranis on April 21, 2018, 06:31:00 PM
15 Years as a GM and he's never drafted a superstar... That's pretty wild.

I guess Rondo is the closest thing?

Is it?

Over that 15 year period, by my count, there have only been about 20 players I would call "superstars" drafted. Up until the Brooklyn picks (that became Brown and Tatum) Danny only had 3 top ten selections and 2 of those were traded away (in 2006 and 2007, the 3rd was Smart).

Given that the C's have only missed the playoffs 3 times during his tenure and the only time he's ever had picks in the top 4, he selected 2 players that appear to have star potential, I don't think it's wild at all.
Rondo is the only player Ainge drafted that has made an all stat team. Not even Big Al Jeff made one.  Obviously Brown and Tatum still might but you don't need to call it superstar for his general point to remain.
Title: Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
Post by: Big333223 on April 21, 2018, 06:59:52 PM
15 Years as a GM and he's never drafted a superstar... That's pretty wild.

I guess Rondo is the closest thing?

Is it?

Over that 15 year period, by my count, there have only been about 20 players I would call "superstars" drafted. Up until the Brooklyn picks (that became Brown and Tatum) Danny only had 3 top ten selections and 2 of those were traded away (in 2006 and 2007, the 3rd was Smart).

Given that the C's have only missed the playoffs 3 times during his tenure and the only time he's ever had picks in the top 4, he selected 2 players that appear to have star potential, I don't think it's wild at all.
Rondo is the only player Ainge drafted that has made an all stat team. Not even Big Al Jeff made one.  Obviously Brown and Tatum still might but you don't need to call it superstar for his general point to remain.

I guess I'm not sure what his general point was.
Title: Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
Post by: pokeKingCurtis on April 22, 2018, 01:34:43 AM
15 Years as a GM and he's never drafted a superstar... That's pretty wild.

I guess Rondo is the closest thing?

Is it?

Over that 15 year period, by my count, there have only been about 20 players I would call "superstars" drafted. Up until the Brooklyn picks (that became Brown and Tatum) Danny only had 3 top ten selections and 2 of those were traded away (in 2006 and 2007, the 3rd was Smart).

Given that the C's have only missed the playoffs 3 times during his tenure and the only time he's ever had picks in the top 4, he selected 2 players that appear to have star potential, I don't think it's wild at all.

Totally.

Agree with your other post too, would grade Ainge a B to A-.

You want bad drafting? Look at Minnesota in the past 2 decades, and Philly (going 50% on top 5 picks, with Okafor and Nerlens Noel). Look at the Kings and the Suns. At least Ainge didn't crap the bed on his top picks.

On the other hand, Ainge is probably not on the level of OKC and the Warriors in the past 10 years. The Nuggets are probably above him too.

I'd argue Ainge does decently, especially in the lottery, getting expected value, in some cases when faced with precarious propositions:
Title: Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
Post by: Moranis on April 22, 2018, 09:08:51 AM
15 Years as a GM and he's never drafted a superstar... That's pretty wild.

I guess Rondo is the closest thing?

Is it?

Over that 15 year period, by my count, there have only been about 20 players I would call "superstars" drafted. Up until the Brooklyn picks (that became Brown and Tatum) Danny only had 3 top ten selections and 2 of those were traded away (in 2006 and 2007, the 3rd was Smart).

Given that the C's have only missed the playoffs 3 times during his tenure and the only time he's ever had picks in the top 4, he selected 2 players that appear to have star potential, I don't think it's wild at all.
Rondo is the only player Ainge drafted that has made an all stat team. Not even Big Al Jeff made one.  Obviously Brown and Tatum still might but you don't need to call it superstar for his general point to remain.

I guess I'm not sure what his general point was.
in 15 years to only have drafted 1 all star is pretty shocking
Title: Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
Post by: Moranis on April 22, 2018, 09:20:38 AM
15 Years as a GM and he's never drafted a superstar... That's pretty wild.

I guess Rondo is the closest thing?

Is it?

Over that 15 year period, by my count, there have only been about 20 players I would call "superstars" drafted. Up until the Brooklyn picks (that became Brown and Tatum) Danny only had 3 top ten selections and 2 of those were traded away (in 2006 and 2007, the 3rd was Smart).

Given that the C's have only missed the playoffs 3 times during his tenure and the only time he's ever had picks in the top 4, he selected 2 players that appear to have star potential, I don't think it's wild at all.

Totally.

Agree with your other post too, would grade Ainge a B to A-.

You want bad drafting? Look at Minnesota in the past 2 decades, and Philly (going 50% on top 5 picks, with Okafor and Nerlens Noel). Look at the Kings and the Suns. At least Ainge didn't crap the bed on his top picks.

On the other hand, Ainge is probably not on the level of OKC and the Warriors in the past 10 years. The Nuggets are probably above him too.

I'd argue Ainge does decently, especially in the lottery, getting expected value, in some cases when faced with precarious propositions:
  • I recall the Marcus Smart draft was a 2 player draft with Wiggins and Parker, and after that a morass of solid talent. Let's forget the late picks - as someone else mentioned, be realistic, nobody was going to waste a top pick on Jokic (are you kidding!). Ainge was faced with Smart, Randle, Stauskas and Vonleh, and I'd say Randle and Smart is a tossup at this point - and at least he didn't go with Vonleh
  • The Tatum draft no doubt was a solid move, again in a precarious position
  • The mid-late first round Ainge has missed on Giannis, but Olynk and Jajuan Johnson is about what you'd expect out of a mid-late first rounder
Noel was not a top 5 pick.  Still probably a miss at 6 and Okafor certainly was but the Sixers before and during Hinkie have actually been a pretty darn good drafting team starting with Iggy at 9 in 2004 and moving forward.  Lots of very strong value selections.
Title: Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
Post by: pokeKingCurtis on April 22, 2018, 10:06:15 AM
15 Years as a GM and he's never drafted a superstar... That's pretty wild.

I guess Rondo is the closest thing?

Is it?

Over that 15 year period, by my count, there have only been about 20 players I would call "superstars" drafted. Up until the Brooklyn picks (that became Brown and Tatum) Danny only had 3 top ten selections and 2 of those were traded away (in 2006 and 2007, the 3rd was Smart).

Given that the C's have only missed the playoffs 3 times during his tenure and the only time he's ever had picks in the top 4, he selected 2 players that appear to have star potential, I don't think it's wild at all.

Totally.

Agree with your other post too, would grade Ainge a B to A-.

You want bad drafting? Look at Minnesota in the past 2 decades, and Philly (going 50% on top 5 picks, with Okafor and Nerlens Noel). Look at the Kings and the Suns. At least Ainge didn't crap the bed on his top picks.

On the other hand, Ainge is probably not on the level of OKC and the Warriors in the past 10 years. The Nuggets are probably above him too.

I'd argue Ainge does decently, especially in the lottery, getting expected value, in some cases when faced with precarious propositions:
  • I recall the Marcus Smart draft was a 2 player draft with Wiggins and Parker, and after that a morass of solid talent. Let's forget the late picks - as someone else mentioned, be realistic, nobody was going to waste a top pick on Jokic (are you kidding!). Ainge was faced with Smart, Randle, Stauskas and Vonleh, and I'd say Randle and Smart is a tossup at this point - and at least he didn't go with Vonleh
  • The Tatum draft no doubt was a solid move, again in a precarious position
  • The mid-late first round Ainge has missed on Giannis, but Olynk and Jajuan Johnson is about what you'd expect out of a mid-late first rounder
Noel was not a top 5 pick.  Still probably a miss at 6 and Okafor certainly was but the Sixers before and during Hinkie have actually been a pretty darn good drafting team starting with Iggy at 9 in 2004 and moving forward.  Lots of very strong value selections.

My bad on those factual mistakes. TP and thank you for the corrections.

A very skin deep way of gauging one aspect of Ainge's drafting skills would be his top lottery picks (Smart, Brown, Tatum) versus the 76ers' and other teams. Ainge will hopefully have another lottery pick next year (or, better yet, somehow get one this year). Will give something to compare to against the 6ers' draft history. Currently Ainge looks like the winner (probably speaking as a homer) - though the there'll probably never be enough data points to draw any meaningful conclusion this way from sheer data analysis in a vacuum.

At the very least we could all be glad that Ainge's drafting skills are decent enough, such that we aren't a perennial lottery team.
Title: Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
Post by: jambr380 on April 22, 2018, 10:50:10 AM
I also feel like the Brown pick can't be understated. In a 2 player draft, the Celtics had the 3rd pick and there were 6 players who easily could have been drafted at #3; it was a no-win situation. But somehow, someway, Danny managed to choose the [apparent] next best player after Simmons. He also went against popular opinion and kept the pick (along with other picks and solid players who would later be used in the Kyrie deal) instead of dealing it for Jimmy Butler.

Also, Rondo was an absolute homerun at 21. Every year there are one or two players who go much later than they should, but it's not like the same teams pick them. There are 30 teams and they are pretty well spread out. Danny has done a good job at drafting solid NBA caliber players and he has often had to choose much later on than his colleagues.

After Tatum and Brown become all-stars, hopefully we can lay all of this to rest. He is already without a doubt the best trader in the business.
Title: Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
Post by: pokeKingCurtis on April 22, 2018, 11:47:12 AM
I also feel like the Brown pick can't be understated. In a 2 player draft, the Celtics had the 3rd pick and there were 6 players who easily could have been drafted at #3; it was a no-win situation. But somehow, someway, Danny managed to choose the [apparent] next best player after Simmons. He also went against popular opinion and kept the pick (along with other picks and solid players who would later be used in the Kyrie deal) instead of dealing it for Jimmy Butler.

Well put.

Some of these picks are exceptional because they go against conventional valuations (that we know of anyway). Ainge has done so well going against the grain.

Here's another one. He didn't only hit on Rozier, he picked Rozier several picks ahead of where he should be.

Title: Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
Post by: keevsnick on April 22, 2018, 12:48:39 PM
I also feel like the Brown pick can't be understated. In a 2 player draft, the Celtics had the 3rd pick and there were 6 players who easily could have been drafted at #3; it was a no-win situation. But somehow, someway, Danny managed to choose the [apparent] next best player after Simmons. He also went against popular opinion and kept the pick (along with other picks and solid players who would later be used in the Kyrie deal) instead of dealing it for Jimmy Butler.

Well put.

Some of these picks are exceptional because they go against conventional valuations (that we know of anyway). Ainge has done so well going against the grain.

Here's another one. He didn't only hit on Rozier, he picked Rozier several picks ahead of where he should be.
I feel like soemimes the Jaylen pick gets a little overplayed because everyone seems to think he was projected to go lower. In reality he was as you say in that six player tier that could go 3-8, and he went three. So to say he was picked ahead of hwere he should go isnt entirely accurate. In any case Dany still made the right call, I think the fact he reissted trading the pick for win now help is actually more impressive than picking the right in that tier.
Title: Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
Post by: Fan from VT on April 22, 2018, 01:50:59 PM
Grading drafting ability is hard; context always has to be taken into account.

By my count, the following players have been on at least 1 All-NBA team since 2003:

Al Horford^
Al Jefferson^
Allen Iverson* (6)
Amar'e Stoudemire (4)
Andre Drummond^
Andrew Bogut^
Andrew Bynum
Anthony Davis^
Baron Davis
Ben Wallace (3)
Blake Griffin^
Brandon Roy
Carlos Boozer^
Carmelo Anthony^
Chauncey Billups
Chris Bosh
Chris Paul (2)^
Damian Lillard^
David Lee^
DeAndre Jordan^
DeMar DeRozan^
Deron Williams^
Derrick Rose^
Dirk Nowitzki^ (10)
Draymond Green^
Dwight Howard^
Dwyane Wade (4)^
Elton Brand
Giannis Antetokounmpo^
Gilbert Arenas
Goran Dragić^
Isaiah Thomas^
James Harden^
Jason Kidd* (6)
Jermaine O'Neal (3)
Jimmy Butler^
Joakim Noah^
Joe Johnson^
John Wall^
Kawhi Leonard^
Kevin Durant^
Kevin Garnett (6)
Kevin Love^
Klay Thompson^
Kobe Bryant (10)
Kyle Lowry^
Kyrie Irving^
LaMarcus Aldridge^
LeBron James^
Manu Ginóbili^
Marc Gasol^
Michael Redd
Pau Gasol^
Paul George^
Paul Pierce (3)
Paul Pierce (4)
Peja Stojaković
Rajon Rondo^
Ray Allen* (2)
Ron Artes [d
Rudy Gobert^
Russell Westbrook^
Sam Cassell
Shaquille O'Neal* (11)
Shawn Marion
Stephen Curry^
Steve Nash* (3)
Tim Duncan (10)
Tony Parker^
Tracy McGrady* (4)
Tyson Chandler^
Yao Ming*
Zach Randolph^

So those are the guys eligible for "superstar" status.

Of those players, these are the ones that could have been drafted by Ainge:

Al Jefferson - was drafted by Ainge.
Brandon Roy - Traded for Telfair and the Ratliff contract
David Lee - 30th pick.
DeAndre Jordan - 35th pick - Hated the Giddens pick at the time.
Draymond Green - 35th pick (in fact, the 3rd pick that Golden State had that draft!)
Giannis Antetokounmpo - 15th (this one hurts).
Goran Dragic - 45th pick.
Isaiah Thomas - 60 Jujuan Johnson draft.
Jimmy Butler - 30 Jujuan Johnson draft.
Joakim Noah - 10th pick, we traded #5 for Ray Allen.
Kyle Lowry - 24th; Rondo taken at 21. Lowry better career, though Rondo's peak pre-injury was preferable.
Marc Gasol - 48th
Rajon Rondo - Picked by ainge
Rudy Gobert - 27 (Olynyk draft).

So, which ones should be held against Ainge? A lot of not drafting a "superstar" is that there aren't a lot of superstars. When there are, they are usually at the very tip top of the draft, or are complete crapshoots. I mean, a lot of the above players were in no way consensus elite prospects. Further, I'd argue that it is hard to convincingly say that the teams that drafted many of the above players are super clever or excellent at drafting, given that many times those teams either passed on these superstars once in the draft before taking them, or failed to trade up to make sure they nabbed this superstar player.

One way to look at the above is that there are 14 players who have made all-nba that were available with draft picks Ainge had, and Ainge picked 2 of those 14. There are 30 NBA teams. So that's kind of interesting.

There are 2 that stand out:
- Leaping up to pick 13 for the right to pass on Giannis sucks
- Drafting JR giddens for any reason whatsoever, but more than that, passing on Jordan to do so.
Title: Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
Post by: pokeKingCurtis on April 22, 2018, 02:01:55 PM

TP. Good content, useful for perspective.

Now if only there was an easy way to do this for rotational players...!
Title: Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
Post by: nickagneta on April 22, 2018, 02:43:40 PM
I think the Giddens pick was a bad pick. Ainge was going for someone to contribute right away on an older team and whiffed. I think Giddens was expected to go mid 2nd to not drafted. Horrid choice. But I don't hold Jordan against him. 30 GMs passed on Jordan because the chances of him hitting his ceiling was so low. A couple GMs passed on DeAndre twice. He was far from a sure thing.

But he was identified as a decent 2nd round pick to possibly be a good pro in a deep draft. Jordan, Pekovic, Dorsey, Douglas-Roberts, Chalmers, and Mbah a Moute had all been identified as possible good NBA rotation players. Dragic and Asik weren't but became solid to great NBA players.

Its a bad pick because Danny reached on someone that wasn't identified by most draft sites and scouts as being any good when there was a plethora of players that were still on the board that were identified as having a good chance to be players.
Title: Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
Post by: pokeKingCurtis on April 22, 2018, 02:57:01 PM
Ainge loves his bad-shooting, feisty, defense first guards. Giddens was his prototype.
Title: Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
Post by: Big333223 on April 23, 2018, 07:28:25 AM
15 Years as a GM and he's never drafted a superstar... That's pretty wild.

I guess Rondo is the closest thing?

Is it?

Over that 15 year period, by my count, there have only been about 20 players I would call "superstars" drafted. Up until the Brooklyn picks (that became Brown and Tatum) Danny only had 3 top ten selections and 2 of those were traded away (in 2006 and 2007, the 3rd was Smart).

Given that the C's have only missed the playoffs 3 times during his tenure and the only time he's ever had picks in the top 4, he selected 2 players that appear to have star potential, I don't think it's wild at all.
Rondo is the only player Ainge drafted that has made an all stat team. Not even Big Al Jeff made one.  Obviously Brown and Tatum still might but you don't need to call it superstar for his general point to remain.

I guess I'm not sure what his general point was.
in 15 years to only have drafted 1 all star is pretty shocking

It is?

By my count, in the same time period, the Spurs, Mavericks, Hawks, Pistons, and Bucks have also only drafted 1 all star. The Rockets and Sun haven't drafted a single all star in the time Ainge has been in charge of the Celtics.

Given that the C's have only missed the playoffs 3 times in those years, I don't see anything shocking about it. Especially when you consider he acquired 4 players who made at least 1 all star team while with the Celtics in other ways.
Title: Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
Post by: Moranis on April 23, 2018, 08:23:32 AM
15 Years as a GM and he's never drafted a superstar... That's pretty wild.

I guess Rondo is the closest thing?

Is it?

Over that 15 year period, by my count, there have only been about 20 players I would call "superstars" drafted. Up until the Brooklyn picks (that became Brown and Tatum) Danny only had 3 top ten selections and 2 of those were traded away (in 2006 and 2007, the 3rd was Smart).

Given that the C's have only missed the playoffs 3 times during his tenure and the only time he's ever had picks in the top 4, he selected 2 players that appear to have star potential, I don't think it's wild at all.
Rondo is the only player Ainge drafted that has made an all stat team. Not even Big Al Jeff made one.  Obviously Brown and Tatum still might but you don't need to call it superstar for his general point to remain.

I guess I'm not sure what his general point was.
in 15 years to only have drafted 1 all star is pretty shocking

It is?

By my count, in the same time period, the Spurs, Mavericks, Hawks, Pistons, and Bucks have also only drafted 1 all star. The Rockets and Sun haven't drafted a single all star in the time Ainge has been in charge of the Celtics.

Given that the C's have only missed the playoffs 3 times in those years, I don't see anything shocking about it. Especially when you consider he acquired 4 players who made at least 1 all star team while with the Celtics in other ways.
The Hawks drafted at least 2 (Horford and Teague).  I didn't even need to look that one up.  The Mavs have had 8 1st round picks in the last 15 years and one of those 8 they traded on draft day for Lou Williams and a couple of 2nd rounders and the only 1 of those picks that was a top 10 pick was Dennis Smith in the last draft.  So I have hard time comparing a team like Dallas that is always trading picks to a team like the Celtics which has had a ton of 1st round picks.  The Spurs won 50 games every single season in that stretch, one year they had a 1st round pick that was not 26 or lower and that pick was 20.  Again, you can't really compare that to a team with a much more varied drafting history.  I will give you that the Pistons (no top 5 picks except Darko) and Bucks (Parker and Bogut only top 5 picks) have just the 1 all star during that period, but those teams have gone through the general managers so I'm not sure they would help the position that Ainge has done a good job because he is on the same level as the Pistons and Bucks when it comes to drafting.
Title: Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
Post by: Sophomore on April 23, 2018, 08:35:52 AM
I have a hard time comparing a team like Dallas that is always trading picks to a team like the Celtics which has had a ton of 1st round picks. 

Most of those first-round picks were late to mid-first round. It's rare to get an all-star that low in the draft.

Looking at DA's last four drafts, I see Smart, Rozier, Brown, and Tatum as the first player chosen. Smart is flawed, but looking at who was picked afterward in that draft, it's hard to say Danny didn't get good value. He could have done worse - next five players were Julius Randle, Nik Stauskas, Noah Vonleh, Elfrid Payton, Doug McDermott.  Rozier at 16 was pretty good value for the middle of the first round. Brown and Tatum? You could say these were high picks so Ainge doesn't get credit for an easy win, but I don't think that's fair. There were a *lot* of doubters on the Brown pick. Tatum? How many mocks had it as a no-brainer that Fultz was the best player on the board? That Tatum was limited as an athlete and a shooter, so not in the same tier? Philly clearly had it that way on their board. They traded us what's likely to be a high lottery pick in order to pass on Tatum and pick Fultz. Ainge made the right decision, a big one, instead of the safe, wrong decision.
Title: Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
Post by: Big333223 on April 23, 2018, 08:46:28 AM
15 Years as a GM and he's never drafted a superstar... That's pretty wild.

I guess Rondo is the closest thing?

Is it?

Over that 15 year period, by my count, there have only been about 20 players I would call "superstars" drafted. Up until the Brooklyn picks (that became Brown and Tatum) Danny only had 3 top ten selections and 2 of those were traded away (in 2006 and 2007, the 3rd was Smart).

Given that the C's have only missed the playoffs 3 times during his tenure and the only time he's ever had picks in the top 4, he selected 2 players that appear to have star potential, I don't think it's wild at all.
Rondo is the only player Ainge drafted that has made an all stat team. Not even Big Al Jeff made one.  Obviously Brown and Tatum still might but you don't need to call it superstar for his general point to remain.

I guess I'm not sure what his general point was.
in 15 years to only have drafted 1 all star is pretty shocking

It is?

By my count, in the same time period, the Spurs, Mavericks, Hawks, Pistons, and Bucks have also only drafted 1 all star. The Rockets and Sun haven't drafted a single all star in the time Ainge has been in charge of the Celtics.

Given that the C's have only missed the playoffs 3 times in those years, I don't see anything shocking about it. Especially when you consider he acquired 4 players who made at least 1 all star team while with the Celtics in other ways.
The Hawks drafted at least 2 (Horford and Teague).  I didn't even need to look that one up.  The Mavs have had 8 1st round picks in the last 15 years and one of those 8 they traded on draft day for Lou Williams and a couple of 2nd rounders and the only 1 of those picks that was a top 10 pick was Dennis Smith in the last draft.  So I have hard time comparing a team like Dallas that is always trading picks to a team like the Celtics which has had a ton of 1st round picks.  The Spurs won 50 games every single season in that stretch, one year they had a 1st round pick that was not 26 or lower and that pick was 20.  Again, you can't really compare that to a team with a much more varied drafting history.  I will give you that the Pistons (no top 5 picks except Darko) and Bucks (Parker and Bogut only top 5 picks) have just the 1 all star during that period, but those teams have gone through the general managers so I'm not sure they would help the position that Ainge has done a good job because he is on the same level as the Pistons and Bucks when it comes to drafting.

My bad. I forgot Teague made an all star game that year Atlanta won 60 games.

Still, the rest of those examples are valid. Giving the reasons for why they haven't drafted more than 1 all star doesn't change the fact that it happened. And this is all within the context of Ainge acquiring multiple all stars through other means.

I don't see how it's shocking.
Title: Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
Post by: GC003332 on April 23, 2018, 09:53:16 AM
15 Years as a GM and he's never drafted a superstar... That's pretty wild.

I guess Rondo is the closest thing?

Is it?

Over that 15 year period, by my count, there have only been about 20 players I would call "superstars" drafted. Up until the Brooklyn picks (that became Brown and Tatum) Danny only had 3 top ten selections and 2 of those were traded away (in 2006 and 2007, the 3rd was Smart).

Given that the C's have only missed the playoffs 3 times during his tenure and the only time he's ever had picks in the top 4, he selected 2 players that appear to have star potential, I don't think it's wild at all.
Rondo is the only player Ainge drafted that has made an all stat team. Not even Big Al Jeff made one.  Obviously Brown and Tatum still might but you don't need to call it superstar for his general point to remain.

I guess I'm not sure what his general point was.
in 15 years to only have drafted 1 all star is pretty shocking

It is?

By my count, in the same time period, the Spurs, Mavericks, Hawks, Pistons, and Bucks have also only drafted 1 all star. The Rockets and Sun haven't drafted a single all star in the time Ainge has been in charge of the Celtics.

Given that the C's have only missed the playoffs 3 times in those years, I don't see anything shocking about it. Especially when you consider he acquired 4 players who made at least 1 all star team while with the Celtics in other ways.
TP

A few more teams that have only drafted one all star since 2003 - Lakers, Heat, Nets,Kings,Hornets/Bobcats and Nuggets.
 
Garnett
Allen
Thomas
Irving
Horford

that is 5 by my count.

I totally disagree that it is shocking and have nothing more to say on this matter. ;)
Title: Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
Post by: footey on April 23, 2018, 11:16:22 AM
Danny seems to do better on trades than he does on drafting.

This is partly explained by the fact that he hasn't had many high draft picks; when he does, we do pretty well.

It also underscores the difficulty of drafting when players come out so early. There is simply not enough data to accurately project future performance.

I think Danny is a great evaluator of talent in the NBA. He has a good feel which players are capable of more growth.  IT for example.
Title: Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
Post by: droopdog7 on April 23, 2018, 11:44:47 AM
So Danny assembles title winning team that takes us on an unforgettable four year ride, dips into the lottery one time since then, and now has us on the verge of a dynasty...and people have the nerve to complain about him...for anything?

Man, some people can never be satisfied.
Title: Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
Post by: Fan from VT on April 23, 2018, 01:09:38 PM
15 Years as a GM and he's never drafted a superstar... That's pretty wild.

I guess Rondo is the closest thing?

Is it?

Over that 15 year period, by my count, there have only been about 20 players I would call "superstars" drafted. Up until the Brooklyn picks (that became Brown and Tatum) Danny only had 3 top ten selections and 2 of those were traded away (in 2006 and 2007, the 3rd was Smart).

Given that the C's have only missed the playoffs 3 times during his tenure and the only time he's ever had picks in the top 4, he selected 2 players that appear to have star potential, I don't think it's wild at all.

Totally.

Agree with your other post too, would grade Ainge a B to A-.

You want bad drafting? Look at Minnesota in the past 2 decades, and Philly (going 50% on top 5 picks, with Okafor and Nerlens Noel). Look at the Kings and the Suns. At least Ainge didn't crap the bed on his top picks.

On the other hand, Ainge is probably not on the level of OKC and the Warriors in the past 10 years. The Nuggets are probably above him too.

I'd argue Ainge does decently, especially in the lottery, getting expected value, in some cases when faced with precarious propositions:
  • I recall the Marcus Smart draft was a 2 player draft with Wiggins and Parker, and after that a morass of solid talent. Let's forget the late picks - as someone else mentioned, be realistic, nobody was going to waste a top pick on Jokic (are you kidding!). Ainge was faced with Smart, Randle, Stauskas and Vonleh, and I'd say Randle and Smart is a tossup at this point - and at least he didn't go with Vonleh
  • The Tatum draft no doubt was a solid move, again in a precarious position
  • The mid-late first round Ainge has missed on Giannis, but Olynk and Jajuan Johnson is about what you'd expect out of a mid-late first rounder

This is another interesting one to take a look at. Is going 50% that bad?

Let's look at the top 6 (since Noel was 6) of the last few drafts. Keep in mind that recent drafts often tend to look better, because players haven't fallen off the cliff or plateaued yet (think of how Tristan Thompson looked even 2 years ago, for example; same with the futures of Parker, MKG, etc).

2017 - Fultz, Ball, Tatum, Jackson, Fox, Isaac. Too early to tell.
2016 - Simmons, Ingram, Brown, Bender, Dunn, Hield. Early again, but Hield and Dunn are a bit underwhelming, Bender hasn't shown much; the others seem good.
2015 - KAT, d'angelo russel, Okafor, Porzingis, Hezonja, cauley stein
2014 - Wiggins, Parker, Embiid, A Gordon, Exum, Smart.
2013 - Bennet, Oladipo, porter, c zeller, Len, Noel
2012 - A Davis, MKG, Beal, Waiters, Thomas Robinson, Lillard
2011 - Irving, Derrick WIlliams, Kanter, Tristan Thompson, Valenciunas, Veseley
2010 - Wall, Turner, Favors, Wesley Johnson, Cousins, Udoh
2009 - Griffin, Thabeet, Harden, Evans, Rubio, Flynn
2008 - Rose, Beasley, Mayo, Westbrook, Love, Gallinari

So 50% or so is about right. It's more about number of chances to hit that being exceptionally good at hitting.
Title: Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
Post by: wiley on April 23, 2018, 01:24:28 PM
Jaylen Brown is doing his part to bump up Ainge's draft rep.  Jaylen was not viewed as third pick material by a huge majority of media, scouts, draft sites, bloggers, etc..

-There were concerns about his bbiq and ability to play within a team concept (not due to selfishness just due to bbiq).

-There were concerns about his outside shooting (he must have dispelled those with his great pre-draft shooting exhibition for Celts.)

-There were concerns about his ball handling.

On average he was probably expected to go between pick 6 and 8.  Ainge took him at 3 and looks great right now for doing so. 

Dunn was this blog's favorite along with one or two others I'm forgetting...I wanted Dunn (who has looked good in spurts when healthy, but not in the same league as Brown).

Then the trade down for Tatum has only boosted his rep. more.  Rozier has looked great too and that pick came out of nowhere for most of us.  The last three years have helped reverse some previous consternation (deserved or not) with Ainge's drafting. 
Title: Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
Post by: Sophomore on April 23, 2018, 01:33:26 PM

On the other hand, Ainge is probably not on the level of OKC and the Warriors in the past 10 years. The Nuggets are probably above him too.


Fun fact about the Nuggets. They really did well in the 2014 draft - Jokic, Harris, Nurkic - drafting 16th, 19th, and 41st. But what's odd is that I think most people would rank the players opposite their draft position. They got the Joker at 41 - after the whole league passed, and after Denver passed to pick Nurkic and Harris. They got a little lucky there.
Title: Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
Post by: incoherent on April 23, 2018, 02:24:16 PM
Danny's rep is not in question anymore.  Two drafts in a row LA had better picks then us and got the worse player.  Brown >>> Ingram, Tatum >>> Ball and its not even close.



Title: Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
Post by: Sophomore on April 23, 2018, 02:35:44 PM
Danny's rep is not in question anymore.  Two drafts in a row LA had better picks then us and got the worse player.  Brown >>> Ingram, Tatum >>> Ball and its not even close.

Beating the Lakers in two drafts is worth a lot... TP.
Title: Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
Post by: nickagneta on April 23, 2018, 03:14:32 PM
Danny's rep is not in question anymore.  Two drafts in a row LA had better picks then us and got the worse player.  Brown >>> Ingram, Tatum >>> Ball and its not even close.
You might have an argument that Danny got a better player than the Lakers in 3 straight drafts even though they drafted lower than the Lakers. I think it can be argued that Rozier is slightly better than Russell.
Title: Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
Post by: keevsnick on April 23, 2018, 04:06:29 PM
Jaylen Brown is doing his part to bump up Ainge's draft rep.  Jaylen was not viewed as third pick material by a huge majority of media, scouts, draft sites, bloggers, etc..

-There were concerns about his bbiq and ability to play within a team concept (not due to selfishness just due to bbiq).

-There were concerns about his outside shooting (he must have dispelled those with his great pre-draft shooting exhibition for Celts.)

-There were concerns about his ball handling.

On average he was probably expected to go between pick 6 and 8.  Ainge took him at 3 and looks great right now for doing so. 

Dunn was this blog's favorite along with one or two others I'm forgetting...I wanted Dunn (who has looked good in spurts when healthy, but not in the same league as Brown).

Then the trade down for Tatum has only boosted his rep. more.  Rozier has looked great too and that pick came out of nowhere for most of us.  The last three years have helped reverse some previous consternation (deserved or not) with Ainge's drafting.

I see this take alot but its not really true. Jaylen Brown was widely considered as part of the second tier of propects from 3-8 and severa mock draft a in the few weeks before the draft had him at 3 or 4 to the suns. So I wouldn't say Ainge made some genius move taking him in the range everyone thought he would go. Still picked the right guy, but this narrativa is largey driven by the fact everyone thought wed take Dunn to later trade him.
Title: Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
Post by: nickagneta on April 23, 2018, 04:11:46 PM
Jaylen Brown is doing his part to bump up Ainge's draft rep.  Jaylen was not viewed as third pick material by a huge majority of media, scouts, draft sites, bloggers, etc..

-There were concerns about his bbiq and ability to play within a team concept (not due to selfishness just due to bbiq).

-There were concerns about his outside shooting (he must have dispelled those with his great pre-draft shooting exhibition for Celts.)

-There were concerns about his ball handling.

On average he was probably expected to go between pick 6 and 8.  Ainge took him at 3 and looks great right now for doing so. 

Dunn was this blog's favorite along with one or two others I'm forgetting...I wanted Dunn (who has looked good in spurts when healthy, but not in the same league as Brown).

Then the trade down for Tatum has only boosted his rep. more.  Rozier has looked great too and that pick came out of nowhere for most of us.  The last three years have helped reverse some previous consternation (deserved or not) with Ainge's drafting.

I see this take alot but its not really true. Jaylen Brown was widely considered as part of the second tier of propects from 3-8 and severa mock draft a in the few weeks before the draft had him at 3 or 4 to the suns. So I wouldn't say Ainge made some genius move taking him in the range everyone thought he would go. Still picked the right guy, but this narrativa is largey driven by the fact everyone thought wed take Dunn to later trade him.
The reason for Jaylen suddenly being projected as 3rd(never saw 4th) in the draft just a week or two before the draft was because of leaks from people saying Danny was going to take Brown. The draftniks then put Jaylen at 3rd. But before that he was usually being projected towards the end of that 3-8 range.
Title: Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
Post by: Moranis on April 23, 2018, 04:30:10 PM
Jaylen Brown is doing his part to bump up Ainge's draft rep.  Jaylen was not viewed as third pick material by a huge majority of media, scouts, draft sites, bloggers, etc..

-There were concerns about his bbiq and ability to play within a team concept (not due to selfishness just due to bbiq).

-There were concerns about his outside shooting (he must have dispelled those with his great pre-draft shooting exhibition for Celts.)

-There were concerns about his ball handling.

On average he was probably expected to go between pick 6 and 8.  Ainge took him at 3 and looks great right now for doing so. 

Dunn was this blog's favorite along with one or two others I'm forgetting...I wanted Dunn (who has looked good in spurts when healthy, but not in the same league as Brown).

Then the trade down for Tatum has only boosted his rep. more.  Rozier has looked great too and that pick came out of nowhere for most of us.  The last three years have helped reverse some previous consternation (deserved or not) with Ainge's drafting.

I see this take alot but its not really true. Jaylen Brown was widely considered as part of the second tier of propects from 3-8 and severa mock draft a in the few weeks before the draft had him at 3 or 4 to the suns. So I wouldn't say Ainge made some genius move taking him in the range everyone thought he would go. Still picked the right guy, but this narrativa is largey driven by the fact everyone thought wed take Dunn to later trade him.
The reason for Jaylen suddenly being projected as 3rd(never saw 4th) in the draft just a week or two before the draft was because of leaks from people saying Danny was going to take Brown. The draftniks then put Jaylen at 3rd. But before that he was usually being projected towards the end of that 3-8 range.
Yep.  I remember starting a thread on here, that posed the question if Boston had made the trade with the Sixers and then used those assets to trade with Sacramento for #8, could Boston have ended up with Brown at that spot.  A lot of people thought it might have been possible, of course most wouldn't have wanted to take that chance (both that Brown fell and that Sacto would have made the trade). 

EDIT: here is that thread http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=85733.0
Title: Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
Post by: celticsclay on April 23, 2018, 05:01:05 PM
Grading drafting ability is hard; context always has to be taken into account.

By my count, the following players have been on at least 1 All-NBA team since 2003:

Al Horford^
Al Jefferson^
Allen Iverson* (6)
Amar'e Stoudemire (4)
Andre Drummond^
Andrew Bogut^
Andrew Bynum
Anthony Davis^
Baron Davis
Ben Wallace (3)
Blake Griffin^
Brandon Roy
Carlos Boozer^
Carmelo Anthony^
Chauncey Billups
Chris Bosh
Chris Paul (2)^
Damian Lillard^
David Lee^
DeAndre Jordan^
DeMar DeRozan^
Deron Williams^
Derrick Rose^
Dirk Nowitzki^ (10)
Draymond Green^
Dwight Howard^
Dwyane Wade (4)^
Elton Brand
Giannis Antetokounmpo^
Gilbert Arenas
Goran Dragić^
Isaiah Thomas^
James Harden^
Jason Kidd* (6)
Jermaine O'Neal (3)
Jimmy Butler^
Joakim Noah^
Joe Johnson^
John Wall^
Kawhi Leonard^
Kevin Durant^
Kevin Garnett (6)
Kevin Love^
Klay Thompson^
Kobe Bryant (10)
Kyle Lowry^
Kyrie Irving^
LaMarcus Aldridge^
LeBron James^
Manu Ginóbili^
Marc Gasol^
Michael Redd
Pau Gasol^
Paul George^
Paul Pierce (3)
Paul Pierce (4)
Peja Stojaković
Rajon Rondo^
Ray Allen* (2)
Ron Artes [d
Rudy Gobert^
Russell Westbrook^
Sam Cassell
Shaquille O'Neal* (11)
Shawn Marion
Stephen Curry^
Steve Nash* (3)
Tim Duncan (10)
Tony Parker^
Tracy McGrady* (4)
Tyson Chandler^
Yao Ming*
Zach Randolph^

So those are the guys eligible for "superstar" status.

Of those players, these are the ones that could have been drafted by Ainge:

Al Jefferson - was drafted by Ainge.
Brandon Roy - Traded for Telfair and the Ratliff contract
David Lee - 30th pick.
DeAndre Jordan - 35th pick - Hated the Giddens pick at the time.
Draymond Green - 35th pick (in fact, the 3rd pick that Golden State had that draft!)
Giannis Antetokounmpo - 15th (this one hurts).
Goran Dragic - 45th pick.
Isaiah Thomas - 60 Jujuan Johnson draft.
Jimmy Butler - 30 Jujuan Johnson draft.
Joakim Noah - 10th pick, we traded #5 for Ray Allen.
Kyle Lowry - 24th; Rondo taken at 21. Lowry better career, though Rondo's peak pre-injury was preferable.
Marc Gasol - 48th
Rajon Rondo - Picked by ainge
Rudy Gobert - 27 (Olynyk draft).

So, which ones should be held against Ainge? A lot of not drafting a "superstar" is that there aren't a lot of superstars. When there are, they are usually at the very tip top of the draft, or are complete crapshoots. I mean, a lot of the above players were in no way consensus elite prospects. Further, I'd argue that it is hard to convincingly say that the teams that drafted many of the above players are super clever or excellent at drafting, given that many times those teams either passed on these superstars once in the draft before taking them, or failed to trade up to make sure they nabbed this superstar player.

One way to look at the above is that there are 14 players who have made all-nba that were available with draft picks Ainge had, and Ainge picked 2 of those 14. There are 30 NBA teams. So that's kind of interesting.

There are 2 that stand out:
- Leaping up to pick 13 for the right to pass on Giannis sucks
- Drafting JR giddens for any reason whatsoever, but more than that, passing on Jordan to do so.

Thank you for writing this out. Great job of putting the whole one all-star thing in perspective..
Title: Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
Post by: Fan from VT on April 23, 2018, 06:04:59 PM
Grading drafting ability is hard; context always has to be taken into account.

By my count, the following players have been on at least 1 All-NBA team since 2003:

Al Horford^
Al Jefferson^
Allen Iverson* (6)
Amar'e Stoudemire (4)
Andre Drummond^
Andrew Bogut^
Andrew Bynum
Anthony Davis^
Baron Davis
Ben Wallace (3)
Blake Griffin^
Brandon Roy
Carlos Boozer^
Carmelo Anthony^
Chauncey Billups
Chris Bosh
Chris Paul (2)^
Damian Lillard^
David Lee^
DeAndre Jordan^
DeMar DeRozan^
Deron Williams^
Derrick Rose^
Dirk Nowitzki^ (10)
Draymond Green^
Dwight Howard^
Dwyane Wade (4)^
Elton Brand
Giannis Antetokounmpo^
Gilbert Arenas
Goran Dragić^
Isaiah Thomas^
James Harden^
Jason Kidd* (6)
Jermaine O'Neal (3)
Jimmy Butler^
Joakim Noah^
Joe Johnson^
John Wall^
Kawhi Leonard^
Kevin Durant^
Kevin Garnett (6)
Kevin Love^
Klay Thompson^
Kobe Bryant (10)
Kyle Lowry^
Kyrie Irving^
LaMarcus Aldridge^
LeBron James^
Manu Ginóbili^
Marc Gasol^
Michael Redd
Pau Gasol^
Paul George^
Paul Pierce (3)
Paul Pierce (4)
Peja Stojaković
Rajon Rondo^
Ray Allen* (2)
Ron Artes [d
Rudy Gobert^
Russell Westbrook^
Sam Cassell
Shaquille O'Neal* (11)
Shawn Marion
Stephen Curry^
Steve Nash* (3)
Tim Duncan (10)
Tony Parker^
Tracy McGrady* (4)
Tyson Chandler^
Yao Ming*
Zach Randolph^

So those are the guys eligible for "superstar" status.

Of those players, these are the ones that could have been drafted by Ainge:

Al Jefferson - was drafted by Ainge.
Brandon Roy - Traded for Telfair and the Ratliff contract
David Lee - 30th pick.
DeAndre Jordan - 35th pick - Hated the Giddens pick at the time.
Draymond Green - 35th pick (in fact, the 3rd pick that Golden State had that draft!)
Giannis Antetokounmpo - 15th (this one hurts).
Goran Dragic - 45th pick.
Isaiah Thomas - 60 Jujuan Johnson draft.
Jimmy Butler - 30 Jujuan Johnson draft.
Joakim Noah - 10th pick, we traded #5 for Ray Allen.
Kyle Lowry - 24th; Rondo taken at 21. Lowry better career, though Rondo's peak pre-injury was preferable.
Marc Gasol - 48th
Rajon Rondo - Picked by ainge
Rudy Gobert - 27 (Olynyk draft).

So, which ones should be held against Ainge? A lot of not drafting a "superstar" is that there aren't a lot of superstars. When there are, they are usually at the very tip top of the draft, or are complete crapshoots. I mean, a lot of the above players were in no way consensus elite prospects. Further, I'd argue that it is hard to convincingly say that the teams that drafted many of the above players are super clever or excellent at drafting, given that many times those teams either passed on these superstars once in the draft before taking them, or failed to trade up to make sure they nabbed this superstar player.

One way to look at the above is that there are 14 players who have made all-nba that were available with draft picks Ainge had, and Ainge picked 2 of those 14. There are 30 NBA teams. So that's kind of interesting.

There are 2 that stand out:
- Leaping up to pick 13 for the right to pass on Giannis sucks
- Drafting JR giddens for any reason whatsoever, but more than that, passing on Jordan to do so.

Thank you for writing this out. Great job of putting the whole one all-star thing in perspective..


Thanks. And just to clarify, i was using 1 all-nba, 1st, 2nd or 3rd team, not all star.
Title: Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
Post by: droopdog7 on April 23, 2018, 06:17:40 PM
Jaylen Brown is doing his part to bump up Ainge's draft rep.  Jaylen was not viewed as third pick material by a huge majority of media, scouts, draft sites, bloggers, etc..

-There were concerns about his bbiq and ability to play within a team concept (not due to selfishness just due to bbiq).

-There were concerns about his outside shooting (he must have dispelled those with his great pre-draft shooting exhibition for Celts.)

-There were concerns about his ball handling.

On average he was probably expected to go between pick 6 and 8.  Ainge took him at 3 and looks great right now for doing so. 

Dunn was this blog's favorite along with one or two others I'm forgetting...I wanted Dunn (who has looked good in spurts when healthy, but not in the same league as Brown).

Then the trade down for Tatum has only boosted his rep. more.  Rozier has looked great too and that pick came out of nowhere for most of us.  The last three years have helped reverse some previous consternation (deserved or not) with Ainge's drafting.

I see this take alot but its not really true. Jaylen Brown was widely considered as part of the second tier of propects from 3-8 and severa mock draft a in the few weeks before the draft had him at 3 or 4 to the suns. So I wouldn't say Ainge made some genius move taking him in the range everyone thought he would go. Still picked the right guy, but this narrativa is largey driven by the fact everyone thought wed take Dunn to later trade him.
The reason for Jaylen suddenly being projected as 3rd(never saw 4th) in the draft just a week or two before the draft was because of leaks from people saying Danny was going to take Brown. The draftniks then put Jaylen at 3rd. But before that he was usually being projected towards the end of that 3-8 range.
This is 100% on the nose.  The general consensus was that Brown was closer to 8th.  I think DA may be been the only guy to draft Brown at #3.
Title: Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
Post by: keevsnick on April 23, 2018, 06:49:56 PM
Jaylen Brown is doing his part to bump up Ainge's draft rep.  Jaylen was not viewed as third pick material by a huge majority of media, scouts, draft sites, bloggers, etc..

-There were concerns about his bbiq and ability to play within a team concept (not due to selfishness just due to bbiq).

-There were concerns about his outside shooting (he must have dispelled those with his great pre-draft shooting exhibition for Celts.)

-There were concerns about his ball handling.

On average he was probably expected to go between pick 6 and 8.  Ainge took him at 3 and looks great right now for doing so. 

Dunn was this blog's favorite along with one or two others I'm forgetting...I wanted Dunn (who has looked good in spurts when healthy, but not in the same league as Brown).

Then the trade down for Tatum has only boosted his rep. more.  Rozier has looked great too and that pick came out of nowhere for most of us.  The last three years have helped reverse some previous consternation (deserved or not) with Ainge's drafting.

I see this take alot but its not really true. Jaylen Brown was widely considered as part of the second tier of propects from 3-8 and severa mock draft a in the few weeks before the draft had him at 3 or 4 to the suns. So I wouldn't say Ainge made some genius move taking him in the range everyone thought he would go. Still picked the right guy, but this narrativa is largey driven by the fact everyone thought wed take Dunn to later trade him.
The reason for Jaylen suddenly being projected as 3rd(never saw 4th) in the draft just a week or two before the draft was because of leaks from people saying Danny was going to take Brown. The draftniks then put Jaylen at 3rd. But before that he was usually being projected towards the end of that 3-8 range.
This is 100% on the nose.  The general consensus was that Brown was closer to 8th.  I think DA may be been the only guy to draft Brown at #3.

Again have to disagree. There were leaks to that regard yes, but there were plenty of people who had him going #3 literally months before that. And others who thought he be a nice fit with his defense at 4 to the Suns (same reason many projected them to take Jackson). His draft express profile had him as a likely 3-8 pick. He was in the same range as Murray, Bender and Dunn all who we were also rumored to be interested in. And I guaranteed you Dany wasnt the only guy who would have taken him three. Respected analysts like Nate Duncan for example had him as high as even #2 on his board. This idea that he was in the 6-8 range and we reached just isnt true, he was always in play at 3 its just that our team needs at the time seemed to indicate we would trade the pick (take Dunn) or get a shooter (bender/murray) hence when Brown was picked it caught locals off guard and create this untrue narrativa that he was a reach.
Title: Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
Post by: keevsnick on April 23, 2018, 06:58:09 PM
Jaylen Brown is doing his part to bump up Ainge's draft rep.  Jaylen was not viewed as third pick material by a huge majority of media, scouts, draft sites, bloggers, etc..

-There were concerns about his bbiq and ability to play within a team concept (not due to selfishness just due to bbiq).

-There were concerns about his outside shooting (he must have dispelled those with his great pre-draft shooting exhibition for Celts.)

-There were concerns about his ball handling.

On average he was probably expected to go between pick 6 and 8.  Ainge took him at 3 and looks great right now for doing so. 

Dunn was this blog's favorite along with one or two others I'm forgetting...I wanted Dunn (who has looked good in spurts when healthy, but not in the same league as Brown).

Then the trade down for Tatum has only boosted his rep. more.  Rozier has looked great too and that pick came out of nowhere for most of us.  The last three years have helped reverse some previous consternation (deserved or not) with Ainge's drafting.

I see this take alot but its not really true. Jaylen Brown was widely considered as part of the second tier of propects from 3-8 and severa mock draft a in the few weeks before the draft had him at 3 or 4 to the suns. So I wouldn't say Ainge made some genius move taking him in the range everyone thought he would go. Still picked the right guy, but this narrativa is largey driven by the fact everyone thought wed take Dunn to later trade him.
The reason for Jaylen suddenly being projected as 3rd(never saw 4th) in the draft just a week or two before the draft was because of leaks from people saying Danny was going to take Brown. The draftniks then put Jaylen at 3rd. But before that he was usually being projected towards the end of that 3-8 range.
This is 100% on the nose.  The general consensus was that Brown was closer to 8th.  I think DA may be been the only guy to draft Brown at #3.

Again have to disagree. There were leaks to that regard yes, but there were plenty of people who had him going #3 literally months before that. And others who thought he be a nice fit with his defense at 4 to the Suns (same reason many projected them to take Jackson). His draft express profile had him as a likely 3-8 pick. He was in the same range as Murray, Bender and Dunn all who we were also rumored to be interested in. And I guaranteed you Dany wasnt the only guy who would have taken him three. Respected analysts like Nate Duncan for example had him as high as even #2 on his board. This idea that he was in the 6-8 range and we reached just isnt true, he was always in play at 3 its just that our team needs at the time seemed to indicate we would trade the pick (take Dunn) or get a shooter (bender/murray) hence when Brown was picked it caught locals off guard and create this untrue narrativa that he was a reach.


I mean if you guys dont believe me I can literally pull up mock drafts ranging from after the lottery in May to the night before the draft in late June that gave jaylen going to the celtics or suns. 3-8 were all very interchanable. Is is really that surprising that an athletic freak with great size and length was in play at 3-5?
Title: Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
Post by: celticsclay on April 23, 2018, 07:07:40 PM
Jaylen Brown is doing his part to bump up Ainge's draft rep.  Jaylen was not viewed as third pick material by a huge majority of media, scouts, draft sites, bloggers, etc..

-There were concerns about his bbiq and ability to play within a team concept (not due to selfishness just due to bbiq).

-There were concerns about his outside shooting (he must have dispelled those with his great pre-draft shooting exhibition for Celts.)

-There were concerns about his ball handling.

On average he was probably expected to go between pick 6 and 8.  Ainge took him at 3 and looks great right now for doing so. 

Dunn was this blog's favorite along with one or two others I'm forgetting...I wanted Dunn (who has looked good in spurts when healthy, but not in the same league as Brown).

Then the trade down for Tatum has only boosted his rep. more.  Rozier has looked great too and that pick came out of nowhere for most of us.  The last three years have helped reverse some previous consternation (deserved or not) with Ainge's drafting.

I see this take alot but its not really true. Jaylen Brown was widely considered as part of the second tier of propects from 3-8 and severa mock draft a in the few weeks before the draft had him at 3 or 4 to the suns. So I wouldn't say Ainge made some genius move taking him in the range everyone thought he would go. Still picked the right guy, but this narrativa is largey driven by the fact everyone thought wed take Dunn to later trade him.
The reason for Jaylen suddenly being projected as 3rd(never saw 4th) in the draft just a week or two before the draft was because of leaks from people saying Danny was going to take Brown. The draftniks then put Jaylen at 3rd. But before that he was usually being projected towards the end of that 3-8 range.
This is 100% on the nose.  The general consensus was that Brown was closer to 8th.  I think DA may be been the only guy to draft Brown at #3.

Again have to disagree. There were leaks to that regard yes, but there were plenty of people who had him going #3 literally months before that. And others who thought he be a nice fit with his defense at 4 to the Suns (same reason many projected them to take Jackson). His draft express profile had him as a likely 3-8 pick. He was in the same range as Murray, Bender and Dunn all who we were also rumored to be interested in. And I guaranteed you Dany wasnt the only guy who would have taken him three. Respected analysts like Nate Duncan for example had him as high as even #2 on his board. This idea that he was in the 6-8 range and we reached just isnt true, he was always in play at 3 its just that our team needs at the time seemed to indicate we would trade the pick (take Dunn) or get a shooter (bender/murray) hence when Brown was picked it caught locals off guard and create this untrue narrativa that he was a reach.


I mean if you guys dont believe me I can literally pull up mock drafts ranging from after the lottery in May to the night before the draft in late June that gave jaylen going to the celtics or suns. 3-8 were all very interchanable. Is is really that surprising that an athletic freak with great size and length was in play at 3-5?

For what it is worth, I don't think this is inaccurate. I think you could find legit mock drafts that had him going 3rd. However, I also would say he was probably more likely thought of to go 5th or 6th because Dunn and Bender were really getting a lot of pre-draft hype. Dunn seemed to actually be approaching consensus number 3 at one point.
Title: Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
Post by: Beat LA on April 23, 2018, 07:47:08 PM
There are 2 that stand out:
- Leaping up to pick 13 for the right to pass on Giannis sucks
- Drafting JR giddens for any reason whatsoever, but more than that, passing on Jordan to do so.

I'd like to add one more to this part of your list, if that's okay, and, well, that is taking Lester Hudson instead of Wesley Matthews at 58 in 2009. That was the easiest pick in Ainge's entire tenure, imo, as there was literally no one else to even consider save for Matthews at that point, imo. Sigh. He would have been great, here, and hey, who knows, perhaps his close friendship with Jimmy Butler would have been enough to persuade Danny and company into taking his former Marquette teammate insofar as vouching for the latter is concerned.

Granted, I understand that the last part sounds far fetched, and it probably is, lol, but I remember seeing a post on the Warriors' Blog, iirc, where someone said that Matthews had begged Portland to draft Butler, so who knows? Maybe that makes the difference, but we'll never know, now. Sigh.

Imagine if we gotten those two guys, though, and how the timeline for that team would have been completely altered. Sure, that other dude, Pierce, and KG were getting older, but Matthews and Butler would have learned from the best in business, and when it came time to phase out Pierce, and even if that other guy still takes his talents to South Beach, we simply could have inserted Matthews and Butler into the lineup and we keep on going. Sigh.
Title: Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
Post by: bdm860 on April 23, 2018, 08:32:32 PM
Jaylen Brown is doing his part to bump up Ainge's draft rep.  Jaylen was not viewed as third pick material by a huge majority of media, scouts, draft sites, bloggers, etc..

-There were concerns about his bbiq and ability to play within a team concept (not due to selfishness just due to bbiq).

-There were concerns about his outside shooting (he must have dispelled those with his great pre-draft shooting exhibition for Celts.)

-There were concerns about his ball handling.

On average he was probably expected to go between pick 6 and 8.  Ainge took him at 3 and looks great right now for doing so. 

Dunn was this blog's favorite along with one or two others I'm forgetting...I wanted Dunn (who has looked good in spurts when healthy, but not in the same league as Brown).

Then the trade down for Tatum has only boosted his rep. more.  Rozier has looked great too and that pick came out of nowhere for most of us.  The last three years have helped reverse some previous consternation (deserved or not) with Ainge's drafting.

I see this take alot but its not really true. Jaylen Brown was widely considered as part of the second tier of propects from 3-8 and severa mock draft a in the few weeks before the draft had him at 3 or 4 to the suns. So I wouldn't say Ainge made some genius move taking him in the range everyone thought he would go. Still picked the right guy, but this narrativa is largey driven by the fact everyone thought wed take Dunn to later trade him.
The reason for Jaylen suddenly being projected as 3rd(never saw 4th) in the draft just a week or two before the draft was because of leaks from people saying Danny was going to take Brown. The draftniks then put Jaylen at 3rd. But before that he was usually being projected towards the end of that 3-8 range.
This is 100% on the nose.  The general consensus was that Brown was closer to 8th.  I think DA may be been the only guy to draft Brown at #3.

Again have to disagree. There were leaks to that regard yes, but there were plenty of people who had him going #3 literally months before that. And others who thought he be a nice fit with his defense at 4 to the Suns (same reason many projected them to take Jackson). His draft express profile had him as a likely 3-8 pick. He was in the same range as Murray, Bender and Dunn all who we were also rumored to be interested in. And I guaranteed you Dany wasnt the only guy who would have taken him three. Respected analysts like Nate Duncan for example had him as high as even #2 on his board. This idea that he was in the 6-8 range and we reached just isnt true, he was always in play at 3 its just that our team needs at the time seemed to indicate we would trade the pick (take Dunn) or get a shooter (bender/murray) hence when Brown was picked it caught locals off guard and create this untrue narrativa that he was a reach.


I mean if you guys dont believe me I can literally pull up mock drafts ranging from after the lottery in May to the night before the draft in late June that gave jaylen going to the celtics or suns. 3-8 were all very interchanable. Is is really that surprising that an athletic freak with great size and length was in play at 3-5?

For what it is worth, I don't think this is inaccurate. I think you could find legit mock drafts that had him going 3rd. However, I also would say he was probably more likely thought of to go 5th or 6th because Dunn and Bender were really getting a lot of pre-draft hype. Dunn seemed to actually be approaching consensus number 3 at one point.

Here's Bill Simmons tweet on draft night:

https://twitter.com/BillSimmons/status/746153441093816320
Quote
The Celtics just took the 7th pick in the draft at no. 3 and used no. 16 on a French guy sitting in the stands. I'm gonna make a drink.

Of course that's the same man who had this reaction to drafting James Young:

(https://usatthebiglead.files.wordpress.com/2014/06/bill-simmons-fist-pump.gif)

So maybe Simmons isn't the best evaluator of talent.

When it comes to Brown's projected draft position though, NBA.com actually posted a mock draft summary, and it appears to have been updated the night before the draft with the latest mocks (http://www.nba.com/news/2016-consensus-mock-draft/):

NBA.com: Brown at 8, Bender at 3
Draft Express: Brown at 8, Dunn at 3
ESPN.com: Brown at 6, Dunn at 3
SI.com: Brown at 8, Bender at 3
Sporting News: Brown at 7, Chriss at 3
CBS Sports (6/14): Brown at 8, Murray at 3
NBADraft.net: Brown at 4, Dunn at 3
USA Today: Brown at 3
NetScouts: Brown at 8, Bender at 3
Bleacher Report: Brown at 7, Hield at 3
Basketball Insiders: Brown at 6, Murray at 3
CBS Sports (6/21): Brown at 8, Murray at 3

1 of 12 had Brown going #3 (USA Today nailed the C's pick, not much else).
1 of 12 had Brown going #4
2 of 12 had Brown going #6
2 of 12 had Brown going #7
6 of 12 had Brown going #8

So a couple of people had Brown going high, but the majority seemed to have him going at the back end of that #3-#8 tier.
Title: Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
Post by: nickagneta on April 23, 2018, 08:39:28 PM
I could have sworn Chad Ford had Brown going later then on his last or next to last mock had him going third ad mentioned he heard Ainge loved Brown.

Not gonna look it up but I seem to remember more sites like celticsclay mentioned having him lower.
Title: Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
Post by: Sophomore on April 23, 2018, 08:39:42 PM
Jaylen Brown is doing his part to bump up Ainge's draft rep.  Jaylen was not viewed as third pick material by a huge majority of media, scouts, draft sites, bloggers, etc..

-There were concerns about his bbiq and ability to play within a team concept (not due to selfishness just due to bbiq).

-There were concerns about his outside shooting (he must have dispelled those with his great pre-draft shooting exhibition for Celts.)

-There were concerns about his ball handling.

On average he was probably expected to go between pick 6 and 8.  Ainge took him at 3 and looks great right now for doing so. 

Dunn was this blog's favorite along with one or two others I'm forgetting...I wanted Dunn (who has looked good in spurts when healthy, but not in the same league as Brown).

Then the trade down for Tatum has only boosted his rep. more.  Rozier has looked great too and that pick came out of nowhere for most of us.  The last three years have helped reverse some previous consternation (deserved or not) with Ainge's drafting.

I see this take alot but its not really true. Jaylen Brown was widely considered as part of the second tier of propects from 3-8 and severa mock draft a in the few weeks before the draft had him at 3 or 4 to the suns. So I wouldn't say Ainge made some genius move taking him in the range everyone thought he would go. Still picked the right guy, but this narrativa is largey driven by the fact everyone thought wed take Dunn to later trade him.
The reason for Jaylen suddenly being projected as 3rd(never saw 4th) in the draft just a week or two before the draft was because of leaks from people saying Danny was going to take Brown. The draftniks then put Jaylen at 3rd. But before that he was usually being projected towards the end of that 3-8 range.
This is 100% on the nose.  The general consensus was that Brown was closer to 8th.  I think DA may be been the only guy to draft Brown at #3.

Again have to disagree. There were leaks to that regard yes, but there were plenty of people who had him going #3 literally months before that. And others who thought he be a nice fit with his defense at 4 to the Suns (same reason many projected them to take Jackson). His draft express profile had him as a likely 3-8 pick. He was in the same range as Murray, Bender and Dunn all who we were also rumored to be interested in. And I guaranteed you Dany wasnt the only guy who would have taken him three. Respected analysts like Nate Duncan for example had him as high as even #2 on his board. This idea that he was in the 6-8 range and we reached just isnt true, he was always in play at 3 its just that our team needs at the time seemed to indicate we would trade the pick (take Dunn) or get a shooter (bender/murray) hence when Brown was picked it caught locals off guard and create this untrue narrativa that he was a reach.


I mean if you guys dont believe me I can literally pull up mock drafts ranging from after the lottery in May to the night before the draft in late June that gave jaylen going to the celtics or suns. 3-8 were all very interchanable. Is is really that surprising that an athletic freak with great size and length was in play at 3-5?

For what it is worth, I don't think this is inaccurate. I think you could find legit mock drafts that had him going 3rd. However, I also would say he was probably more likely thought of to go 5th or 6th because Dunn and Bender were really getting a lot of pre-draft hype. Dunn seemed to actually be approaching consensus number 3 at one point.

There were some evaluators who liked Jaylen 3d, but a lot had him pegged lower and there was not a public consensus. And we know there were a lot of posters around here who thought Ainge blew it by taking another defensive bulldog who couldn't shoot. This choice wasn't a sure thing - it was a good choice amid a lot of noise.

On the morning of the 2016 draft:

DraftExpress had Brown 8th: https://web.archive.org/web/20160623054049/http://www.draftexpress.com:80/

NBA DraftNet had him 9th:
https://web.archive.org/web/20160629211607/http://www.nbadraft.net:80/

Tankathon had him 7th:
https://web.archive.org/web/20160620154309/http://www.tankathon.com:80/mock_draft

Hoopsrumors had him 7th: https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2016/06/hoops-rumors-2016-nba-mock-draft.html

Can't get the last ESPN big board because I don't subscribe, but Chad Ford had Boston taking Chris Dunn at 3, which of course knocked the chip off Isaiah's shoulder: https://uproxx.com/dimemag/isaiah-thomas-calls-out-chad-ford-nba-draft/. SI also wanted the Cs to take Dunn.

Others got it right.

Maybe Danny was reading Forbes! They had Jaylen 3d (although they didn't spell his name right): https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelschottey/2016/06/22/2016-nba-mock-draft-3-0-final-updated-draft-predictions-before-the-big-night/#774abd544e3e

Kevin O'Connor called it for Jaylen at 3d: https://www.sbnation.com/nba/2016/6/22/12001638/nba-mock-draft-2016-ben-simmons-brandon-ingram-lakers-76ers-celtics

So did Washburn. https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/celtics/2016/06/22/mock/Q1TzS0EpXfSBoAvApOmZHO/story.html
Title: Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
Post by: keevsnick on April 23, 2018, 09:14:45 PM
Jaylen Brown is doing his part to bump up Ainge's draft rep.  Jaylen was not viewed as third pick material by a huge majority of media, scouts, draft sites, bloggers, etc..

-There were concerns about his bbiq and ability to play within a team concept (not due to selfishness just due to bbiq).

-There were concerns about his outside shooting (he must have dispelled those with his great pre-draft shooting exhibition for Celts.)

-There were concerns about his ball handling.

On average he was probably expected to go between pick 6 and 8.  Ainge took him at 3 and looks great right now for doing so. 

Dunn was this blog's favorite along with one or two others I'm forgetting...I wanted Dunn (who has looked good in spurts when healthy, but not in the same league as Brown).

Then the trade down for Tatum has only boosted his rep. more.  Rozier has looked great too and that pick came out of nowhere for most of us.  The last three years have helped reverse some previous consternation (deserved or not) with Ainge's drafting.

I see this take alot but its not really true. Jaylen Brown was widely considered as part of the second tier of propects from 3-8 and severa mock draft a in the few weeks before the draft had him at 3 or 4 to the suns. So I wouldn't say Ainge made some genius move taking him in the range everyone thought he would go. Still picked the right guy, but this narrativa is largey driven by the fact everyone thought wed take Dunn to later trade him.
The reason for Jaylen suddenly being projected as 3rd(never saw 4th) in the draft just a week or two before the draft was because of leaks from people saying Danny was going to take Brown. The draftniks then put Jaylen at 3rd. But before that he was usually being projected towards the end of that 3-8 range.
This is 100% on the nose.  The general consensus was that Brown was closer to 8th.  I think DA may be been the only guy to draft Brown at #3.

Again have to disagree. There were leaks to that regard yes, but there were plenty of people who had him going #3 literally months before that. And others who thought he be a nice fit with his defense at 4 to the Suns (same reason many projected them to take Jackson). His draft express profile had him as a likely 3-8 pick. He was in the same range as Murray, Bender and Dunn all who we were also rumored to be interested in. And I guaranteed you Dany wasnt the only guy who would have taken him three. Respected analysts like Nate Duncan for example had him as high as even #2 on his board. This idea that he was in the 6-8 range and we reached just isnt true, he was always in play at 3 its just that our team needs at the time seemed to indicate we would trade the pick (take Dunn) or get a shooter (bender/murray) hence when Brown was picked it caught locals off guard and create this untrue narrativa that he was a reach.


I mean if you guys dont believe me I can literally pull up mock drafts ranging from after the lottery in May to the night before the draft in late June that gave jaylen going to the celtics or suns. 3-8 were all very interchanable. Is is really that surprising that an athletic freak with great size and length was in play at 3-5?

For what it is worth, I don't think this is inaccurate. I think you could find legit mock drafts that had him going 3rd. However, I also would say he was probably more likely thought of to go 5th or 6th because Dunn and Bender were really getting a lot of pre-draft hype. Dunn seemed to actually be approaching consensus number 3 at one point.

There were some evaluators who liked Jaylen 3d, but a lot had him pegged lower and there was not a public consensus. And we know there were a lot of posters around here who thought Ainge blew it by taking another defensive bulldog who couldn't shoot. This choice wasn't a sure thing - it was a good choice amid a lot of noise.

On the morning of the 2016 draft:

DraftExpress had Brown 8th: https://web.archive.org/web/20160623054049/http://www.draftexpress.com:80/

NBA DraftNet had him 9th:
https://web.archive.org/web/20160629211607/http://www.nbadraft.net:80/

Tankathon had him 7th:
https://web.archive.org/web/20160620154309/http://www.tankathon.com:80/mock_draft

Hoopsrumors had him 7th: https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2016/06/hoops-rumors-2016-nba-mock-draft.html

Can't get the last ESPN big board because I don't subscribe, but Chad Ford had Boston taking Chris Dunn at 3, which of course knocked the chip off Isaiah's shoulder: https://uproxx.com/dimemag/isaiah-thomas-calls-out-chad-ford-nba-draft/. SI also wanted the Cs to take Dunn.

Others got it right.

Maybe Danny was reading Forbes! They had Jaylen 3d (although they didn't spell his name right): https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelschottey/2016/06/22/2016-nba-mock-draft-3-0-final-updated-draft-predictions-before-the-big-night/#774abd544e3e

Kevin O'Connor called it for Jaylen at 3d: https://www.sbnation.com/nba/2016/6/22/12001638/nba-mock-draft-2016-ben-simmons-brandon-ingram-lakers-76ers-celtics

So did Washburn. https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/celtics/2016/06/22/mock/Q1TzS0EpXfSBoAvApOmZHO/story.html

And this is exactly my point! He wasnt consensus 3, he wasnt consensus 8, because there was no consensus. He was projected in the 3-8 range as were those five other guys. Dany didnt pull some rabbitt out of his hat with Jaylen, he picked a guy who was projected to go in that range. Someone of those 3-8 had to go 3. That doesnt mean Ainge doesnt deserved a ton of credit for the pick, but it wasnt the amazing find people make it out to be. Read those mock drafts, does anyone who projects him to go three say its a reach? No, he has sky high potential and the c's need a SF so Jaylen makes sense.
Title: Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
Post by: droopdog7 on April 23, 2018, 09:15:33 PM
Jaylen Brown is doing his part to bump up Ainge's draft rep.  Jaylen was not viewed as third pick material by a huge majority of media, scouts, draft sites, bloggers, etc..

-There were concerns about his bbiq and ability to play within a team concept (not due to selfishness just due to bbiq).

-There were concerns about his outside shooting (he must have dispelled those with his great pre-draft shooting exhibition for Celts.)

-There were concerns about his ball handling.

On average he was probably expected to go between pick 6 and 8.  Ainge took him at 3 and looks great right now for doing so. 

Dunn was this blog's favorite along with one or two others I'm forgetting...I wanted Dunn (who has looked good in spurts when healthy, but not in the same league as Brown).

Then the trade down for Tatum has only boosted his rep. more.  Rozier has looked great too and that pick came out of nowhere for most of us.  The last three years have helped reverse some previous consternation (deserved or not) with Ainge's drafting.

I see this take alot but its not really true. Jaylen Brown was widely considered as part of the second tier of propects from 3-8 and severa mock draft a in the few weeks before the draft had him at 3 or 4 to the suns. So I wouldn't say Ainge made some genius move taking him in the range everyone thought he would go. Still picked the right guy, but this narrativa is largey driven by the fact everyone thought wed take Dunn to later trade him.
The reason for Jaylen suddenly being projected as 3rd(never saw 4th) in the draft just a week or two before the draft was because of leaks from people saying Danny was going to take Brown. The draftniks then put Jaylen at 3rd. But before that he was usually being projected towards the end of that 3-8 range.
This is 100% on the nose.  The general consensus was that Brown was closer to 8th.  I think DA may be been the only guy to draft Brown at #3.

Again have to disagree. There were leaks to that regard yes, but there were plenty of people who had him going #3 literally months before that. And others who thought he be a nice fit with his defense at 4 to the Suns (same reason many projected them to take Jackson). His draft express profile had him as a likely 3-8 pick. He was in the same range as Murray, Bender and Dunn all who we were also rumored to be interested in. And I guaranteed you Dany wasnt the only guy who would have taken him three. Respected analysts like Nate Duncan for example had him as high as even #2 on his board. This idea that he was in the 6-8 range and we reached just isnt true, he was always in play at 3 its just that our team needs at the time seemed to indicate we would trade the pick (take Dunn) or get a shooter (bender/murray) hence when Brown was picked it caught locals off guard and create this untrue narrativa that he was a reach.


I mean if you guys dont believe me I can literally pull up mock drafts ranging from after the lottery in May to the night before the draft in late June that gave jaylen going to the celtics or suns. 3-8 were all very interchanable. Is is really that surprising that an athletic freak with great size and length was in play at 3-5?
Here are the first handful of results for NBA 2016 mock drafts.  Brown was third in one of them and a lot closer to 8th in most.  Its revisionist history that Brown was any sort of a favorite to go third.


http://www.nbadraft.net/2016mock_draft
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2643426-2016-nba-mock-draft-predicting-every-pick-in-early-june
http://www.nba.com/2016/news/features/scott_howard_cooper/06/23/2016-nba-mock-draft-4-0/
https://www.si.com/nba/photo/2016/05/18/2016-nba-mock-draft#3
https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelschottey/2016/05/20/2016-nba-mock-draft-full-1st-round-mock-with-lottery-done-and-draft-order-set/#181434d02487
https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/nba-mock-draft-2016-lsus-ben-simmons-to-the-sixers-at-no-1-looks-to-be-done/
https://theundefeated.com/features/here-are-the-undefeateds-2016-nba-mock-draft-picks/#story
https://www.foxsports.com/nba/story/2016-nba-mock-draft-philadelphia-76ers-los-angeles-lakers-ben-simmons-brandon-ingram-051816
https://www.foxsports.com/nba/story/2016-nba-mock-draft-philadelphia-76ers-los-angeles-lakers-ben-simmons-brandon-ingram-051816

EDIT:  Just want to add this one which also has Jaylen at #3 but clearly references DA bringing him in for two workouts as a main reason.

https://www.foxsports.com/nba/story/2016-nba-mock-draft-philadelphia-76ers-ben-simmons-los-angeles-lakers-boston-celtics-062216
Title: Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
Post by: Beat LA on April 23, 2018, 09:17:05 PM
I could have sworn Chad Ford had Brown going later then on his last or next to last mock had him going third ad mentioned he heard Ainge loved Brown.

Not gonna look it up but I seem to remember more sites like celticsclay mentioned having him lower.

That's how I remember it, as well. It was either that Ainge was going to take Dunn and possibly trade him in some deal with the 76ers, who loved him, or to Chicago for Butler, I believe.

Either way, me thinks that the general consensus was that Ainge could have gotten Brown at, say, five, if he had wanted to trade down or something. I think.
Title: Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
Post by: keevsnick on April 23, 2018, 09:18:24 PM
The general feeling was we would take a shooter, but Jaylen made a lot of sense as well. Even if more drafts had him at 6-8 then 3-5, 3 was still very much in play. Si, nate duncan, Kevin o connor are 3 of the best and they all had him at 3.
Title: Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
Post by: Moranis on April 23, 2018, 09:50:25 PM
The general feeling was we would take a shooter, but Jaylen made a lot of sense as well. Even if more drafts had him at 6-8 then 3-5, 3 was still very much in play. Si, nate duncan, Kevin o connor are 3 of the best and they all had him at 3.
guys connected to Boston having him 3rd makes sense if they had heard that the Celtics loved him. Mocks are often based on inside info and not what that writer would do himself
Title: Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
Post by: pokeKingCurtis on April 24, 2018, 12:15:30 AM

On the other hand, Ainge is probably not on the level of OKC and the Warriors in the past 10 years. The Nuggets are probably above him too.


Fun fact about the Nuggets. They really did well in the 2014 draft - Jokic, Harris, Nurkic - drafting 16th, 19th, and 41st. But what's odd is that I think most people would rank the players opposite their draft position. They got the Joker at 41 - after the whole league passed, and after Denver passed to pick Nurkic and Harris. They got a little lucky there.

My gut tells me the Nuggets are probably some of the best drafters. A bunch of hits.

Chicago used to be too, until recent years - Jimmy Butler, Taj Gibson - all home grown. Seems to have picked it up again, though, now.

Makes me wonder who the top drafters are -- probably OKC...Denver...

Wonder where Ainge ranks there...

15 Years as a GM and he's never drafted a superstar... That's pretty wild.

I guess Rondo is the closest thing?

Is it?

Over that 15 year period, by my count, there have only been about 20 players I would call "superstars" drafted. Up until the Brooklyn picks (that became Brown and Tatum) Danny only had 3 top ten selections and 2 of those were traded away (in 2006 and 2007, the 3rd was Smart).

Given that the C's have only missed the playoffs 3 times during his tenure and the only time he's ever had picks in the top 4, he selected 2 players that appear to have star potential, I don't think it's wild at all.

Totally.

Agree with your other post too, would grade Ainge a B to A-.

You want bad drafting? Look at Minnesota in the past 2 decades, and Philly (going 50% on top 5 picks, with Okafor and Nerlens Noel). Look at the Kings and the Suns. At least Ainge didn't crap the bed on his top picks.

On the other hand, Ainge is probably not on the level of OKC and the Warriors in the past 10 years. The Nuggets are probably above him too.

I'd argue Ainge does decently, especially in the lottery, getting expected value, in some cases when faced with precarious propositions:
  • I recall the Marcus Smart draft was a 2 player draft with Wiggins and Parker, and after that a morass of solid talent. Let's forget the late picks - as someone else mentioned, be realistic, nobody was going to waste a top pick on Jokic (are you kidding!). Ainge was faced with Smart, Randle, Stauskas and Vonleh, and I'd say Randle and Smart is a tossup at this point - and at least he didn't go with Vonleh
  • The Tatum draft no doubt was a solid move, again in a precarious position
  • The mid-late first round Ainge has missed on Giannis, but Olynk and Jajuan Johnson is about what you'd expect out of a mid-late first rounder

This is another interesting one to take a look at. Is going 50% that bad?

Let's look at the top 6 (since Noel was 6) of the last few drafts. Keep in mind that recent drafts often tend to look better, because players haven't fallen off the cliff or plateaued yet (think of how Tristan Thompson looked even 2 years ago, for example; same with the futures of Parker, MKG, etc).

2017 - Fultz, Ball, Tatum, Jackson, Fox, Isaac. Too early to tell.
2016 - Simmons, Ingram, Brown, Bender, Dunn, Hield. Early again, but Hield and Dunn are a bit underwhelming, Bender hasn't shown much; the others seem good.
2015 - KAT, d'angelo russel, Okafor, Porzingis, Hezonja, cauley stein
2014 - Wiggins, Parker, Embiid, A Gordon, Exum, Smart.
2013 - Bennet, Oladipo, porter, c zeller, Len, Noel
2012 - A Davis, MKG, Beal, Waiters, Thomas Robinson, Lillard
2011 - Irving, Derrick WIlliams, Kanter, Tristan Thompson, Valenciunas, Veseley
2010 - Wall, Turner, Favors, Wesley Johnson, Cousins, Udoh
2009 - Griffin, Thabeet, Harden, Evans, Rubio, Flynn
2008 - Rose, Beasley, Mayo, Westbrook, Love, Gallinari

So 50% or so is about right. It's more about number of chances to hit that being exceptionally good at hitting.

I will have to admit to being biased against the 6ers in this case  :P

But now that you bring that up, would Ainge's past top picks (Tatum, Brown) bump his ranking up that much more?
Title: Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
Post by: keevsnick on April 24, 2018, 12:33:44 AM
Okay, lets take this point by point.

Its true that a lot of guys put Jaylen Brown at number three after he had work outs with the Celtics n the weeks before the draft and rumors started circulating that they were interested in him. But there were cterianly mock drafts that had him going to the Celtics even before these rumors spread. SI for instance had Brown as the 3rd pick a full month before the NBA draft and before they brought him in for workouts. So the idea that his mock draft ratings were based entirely on where people thought he would go are false. This is further disputed by the fact that there were mock drafts that had him going right after us to the Suns. To Nickagneta, I refer you to mock draft from both Fox Sports One and Forbes who at one point or another in the month before the draft had him going to the Suns. If you think about it this makes sense, the Suns the very next year took Josh Jackson. An athletic swingman who was strong defensively but cant shoot (sound familiar?).

Now, mock drafts are often bases on projections, but this idea cuts both ways. You can say that mocks had Brown at 3rd because of the Celtics rumor, but a lot of mocks didn't have him at third because he didn't fit our perceived needs at the time. He wasn't a shooter, and he wasn't the guy the Bulls were rumored to be interested in. A lot of that Kris Dunn hype was because we were gonna flip him for Jimmy Butler. In other words, maybe Brown was a worthy pick at 3 but wasn't mocked there because of perceived need. The very fact that so many of these mock drafts were trying to project 3-8 based on teem needs tells you how closely the 3-8 prospects in the draft were ranked.

Now I'm willing to concede that in general more mocks had him going 7 or 8 than 3-6. A 2:1 ratio in that regard sounds about right. But thats far from a consensus. And as I've already pointed out alot of msart people like Kevin o connor and Nate Duncan has him ranked pretty high. Perhaps the best argument that Jaylen was in play much higher than 7th or 8th is the fact that Dany took him at 3rd. If Ainge could have moved back to 7th and gotten Jaylen, who he obviosuly thought was the best pick, don't you think he would have? Even if only for an extra 2nd round pick or late first? Obvisuouly he would have, he did it with Tatum. the fact that he didn't is a pretty good indicator he thought Brown would be gone by then. Probably to Pheonix at 4.

Now let me give you guys a history lesson. Before that college season Jaylen Brown was rated almost universally as a top 3 pick. He was the 2nd rated recruit in his class our of high school. A bad season at Cal culminating in a Kevin Pelton piece that has Brown projecting terribly in statistical models moving forward tanked his position in mock drafts. But then as people did more in depth analysis he started recovering a bit. People pointed at that Cal was a terrible fit, he was asked to basically play PG which he wasn't equipped to do on a team with a bad coach and no spacing leading to terrible efficiency. With NBA spacing he would probably fit better. In addition although he shot bad at Cal from 3, he was a pretty decent shooter from distance in high school. Then he started going to workouts, and not surprisingly he is the exact type of player who looks awesome in an empty gym and his stock recovered yet further. Brown became a test case for analytics vs traditional scouting and upside projection. Hence the fact that he was all over the place in mocks.

Anyway, my point in all this is Brown wasn't a reach. If you went ahead and asked all these guys writing these mocks who had him 7 or 8 whether they'd be surprised if he went 3, they would say no. And thats my point. That was the prevailing opinion at the time, 3-8 was fluid and although Brown has his warts so did everyone else in that range. We shouldn't be sitting here giving Ainge credit for seeing something nobody else did when numerous people had that as the pick. Hell, I had him number 2 on my board and I am far from a draft expert! That being said Ainge sill made a hell of a pick, having #3 in a supposed 2 player draft and coming anyway with arguably the 2nd best guy is impressive.
Title: Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
Post by: nickagneta on April 24, 2018, 01:48:02 AM
Okay, lets take this point by point.

Its true that a lot of guys put Jaylen Brown at number three after he had work outs with the Celtics n the weeks before the draft and rumors started circulating that they were interested in him. But there were cterianly mock drafts that had him going to the Celtics even before these rumors spread. SI for instance had Brown as the 3rd pick a full month before the NBA draft and before they brought him in for workouts. So the idea that his mock draft ratings were based entirely on where people thought he would go are false. This is further disputed by the fact that there were mock drafts that had him going right after us to the Suns. To Nickagneta, I refer you to mock draft from both Fox Sports One and Forbes who at one point or another in the month before the draft had him going to the Suns. If you think about it this makes sense, the Suns the very next year took Josh Jackson. An athletic swingman who was strong defensively but cant shoot (sound familiar?).

Now, mock drafts are often bases on projections, but this idea cuts both ways. You can say that mocks had Brown at 3rd because of the Celtics rumor, but a lot of mocks didn't have him at third because he didn't fit our perceived needs at the time. He wasn't a shooter, and he wasn't the guy the Bulls were rumored to be interested in. A lot of that Kris Dunn hype was because we were gonna flip him for Jimmy Butler. In other words, maybe Brown was a worthy pick at 3 but wasn't mocked there because of perceived need. The very fact that so many of these mock drafts were trying to project 3-8 based on teem needs tells you how closely the 3-8 prospects in the draft were ranked.

Now I'm willing to concede that in general more mocks had him going 7 or 8 than 3-6. A 2:1 ratio in that regard sounds about right. But thats far from a consensus. And as I've already pointed out alot of msart people like Kevin o connor and Nate Duncan has him ranked pretty high. Perhaps the best argument that Jaylen was in play much higher than 7th or 8th is the fact that Dany took him at 3rd. If Ainge could have moved back to 7th and gotten Jaylen, who he obviosuly thought was the best pick, don't you think he would have? Even if only for an extra 2nd round pick or late first? Obvisuouly he would have, he did it with Tatum. the fact that he didn't is a pretty good indicator he thought Brown would be gone by then. Probably to Pheonix at 4.

Now let me give you guys a history lesson. Before that college season Jaylen Brown was rated almost universally as a top 3 pick. He was the 2nd rated recruit in his class our of high school. A bad season at Cal culminating in a Kevin Pelton piece that has Brown projecting terribly in statistical models moving forward tanked his position in mock drafts. But then as people did more in depth analysis he started recovering a bit. People pointed at that Cal was a terrible fit, he was asked to basically play PG which he wasn't equipped to do on a team with a bad coach and no spacing leading to terrible efficiency. With NBA spacing he would probably fit better. In addition although he shot bad at Cal from 3, he was a pretty decent shooter from distance in high school. Then he started going to workouts, and not surprisingly he is the exact type of player who looks awesome in an empty gym and his stock recovered yet further. Brown became a test case for analytics vs traditional scouting and upside projection. Hence the fact that he was all over the place in mocks.

Anyway, my point in all this is Brown wasn't a reach. If you went ahead and asked all these guys writing these mocks who had him 7 or 8 whether they'd be surprised if he went 3, they would say no. And thats my point. That was the prevailing opinion at the time, 3-8 was fluid and although Brown has his warts so did everyone else in that range. We shouldn't be sitting here giving Ainge credit for seeing something nobody else did when numerous people had that as the pick. Hell, I had him number 2 on my board and I am far from a draft expert! That being said Ainge sill made a hell of a pick, having #3 in a supposed 2 player draft and coming anyway with arguably the 2nd best guy is impressive.
Who said Brown was a reach at 3? People are saying "most" draft sites and scouts had him in the 6-8 area. I said I didn't see him in the 3rd spot until shortly before the draft, most likely because word leaked that Ainge liked him.Saying Kevin O'Connor, former CBer and guy with Celtic inside info says he would go at 3, only helps my point.

I never said Ainge was some sort of drafting savante because he chose Brown. Check the posts. Heck, check my entire posting history. All I am saying is I remember Brown being listed in the 6-8 area through most of the lead up to the draft and then being listed 3rd to the Cs just before the draft. I am guessing that is because word got out Ainge liked Brown. Certainly having a tremendous shooting workout with the Celtics helped Brown.

Others posting proof that Brown was indeed looked at as 6-8 before the draft by tons of sites and only by 1 or 2 beforehand, one being Kevin O'Connor, a Celticblog local with connections, kinda proves my point.

Ainge made a good call on Brown. Brown was listed as one of 4-5 to chose after Simmons and Ingram. Bender, Chriss, Heild, Dunn or Murray might have been okay picks or bad picks. But Ainge chose wisely. Its not like he pulled a rabbit out of his hat. Its not some miraculous pick. But, in retrospect, it could be the best pick in that draft though again, not some out of left field miraculous pick like  Giannis at 16 or Kawhi at 15 or Kobe at 13.
Title: Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
Post by: keevsnick on April 24, 2018, 03:35:17 AM
Okay, lets take this point by point.

Its true that a lot of guys put Jaylen Brown at number three after he had work outs with the Celtics n the weeks before the draft and rumors started circulating that they were interested in him. But there were cterianly mock drafts that had him going to the Celtics even before these rumors spread. SI for instance had Brown as the 3rd pick a full month before the NBA draft and before they brought him in for workouts. So the idea that his mock draft ratings were based entirely on where people thought he would go are false. This is further disputed by the fact that there were mock drafts that had him going right after us to the Suns. To Nickagneta, I refer you to mock draft from both Fox Sports One and Forbes who at one point or another in the month before the draft had him going to the Suns. If you think about it this makes sense, the Suns the very next year took Josh Jackson. An athletic swingman who was strong defensively but cant shoot (sound familiar?).

Now, mock drafts are often bases on projections, but this idea cuts both ways. You can say that mocks had Brown at 3rd because of the Celtics rumor, but a lot of mocks didn't have him at third because he didn't fit our perceived needs at the time. He wasn't a shooter, and he wasn't the guy the Bulls were rumored to be interested in. A lot of that Kris Dunn hype was because we were gonna flip him for Jimmy Butler. In other words, maybe Brown was a worthy pick at 3 but wasn't mocked there because of perceived need. The very fact that so many of these mock drafts were trying to project 3-8 based on teem needs tells you how closely the 3-8 prospects in the draft were ranked.

Now I'm willing to concede that in general more mocks had him going 7 or 8 than 3-6. A 2:1 ratio in that regard sounds about right. But thats far from a consensus. And as I've already pointed out alot of msart people like Kevin o connor and Nate Duncan has him ranked pretty high. Perhaps the best argument that Jaylen was in play much higher than 7th or 8th is the fact that Dany took him at 3rd. If Ainge could have moved back to 7th and gotten Jaylen, who he obviosuly thought was the best pick, don't you think he would have? Even if only for an extra 2nd round pick or late first? Obvisuouly he would have, he did it with Tatum. the fact that he didn't is a pretty good indicator he thought Brown would be gone by then. Probably to Pheonix at 4.

Now let me give you guys a history lesson. Before that college season Jaylen Brown was rated almost universally as a top 3 pick. He was the 2nd rated recruit in his class our of high school. A bad season at Cal culminating in a Kevin Pelton piece that has Brown projecting terribly in statistical models moving forward tanked his position in mock drafts. But then as people did more in depth analysis he started recovering a bit. People pointed at that Cal was a terrible fit, he was asked to basically play PG which he wasn't equipped to do on a team with a bad coach and no spacing leading to terrible efficiency. With NBA spacing he would probably fit better. In addition although he shot bad at Cal from 3, he was a pretty decent shooter from distance in high school. Then he started going to workouts, and not surprisingly he is the exact type of player who looks awesome in an empty gym and his stock recovered yet further. Brown became a test case for analytics vs traditional scouting and upside projection. Hence the fact that he was all over the place in mocks.

Anyway, my point in all this is Brown wasn't a reach. If you went ahead and asked all these guys writing these mocks who had him 7 or 8 whether they'd be surprised if he went 3, they would say no. And thats my point. That was the prevailing opinion at the time, 3-8 was fluid and although Brown has his warts so did everyone else in that range. We shouldn't be sitting here giving Ainge credit for seeing something nobody else did when numerous people had that as the pick. Hell, I had him number 2 on my board and I am far from a draft expert! That being said Ainge sill made a hell of a pick, having #3 in a supposed 2 player draft and coming anyway with arguably the 2nd best guy is impressive.
Who said Brown was a reach at 3? People are saying "most" draft sites and scouts had him in the 6-8 area. I said I didn't see him in the 3rd spot until shortly before the draft, most likely because word leaked that Ainge liked him.Saying Kevin O'Connor, former CBer and guy with Celtic inside info says he would go at 3, only helps my point.

I never said Ainge was some sort of drafting savante because he chose Brown. Check the posts. Heck, check my entire posting history. All I am saying is I remember Brown being listed in the 6-8 area through most of the lead up to the draft and then being listed 3rd to the Cs just before the draft. I am guessing that is because word got out Ainge liked Brown. Certainly having a tremendous shooting workout with the Celtics helped Brown.

Others posting proof that Brown was indeed looked at as 6-8 before the draft by tons of sites and only by 1 or 2 beforehand, one being Kevin O'Connor, a Celticblog local with connections, kinda proves my point.

Ainge made a good call on Brown. Brown was listed as one of 4-5 to chose after Simmons and Ingram. Bender, Chriss, Heild, Dunn or Murray might have been okay picks or bad picks. But Ainge chose wisely. Its not like he pulled a rabbit out of his hat. Its not some miraculous pick. But, in retrospect, it could be the best pick in that draft though again, not some out of left field miraculous pick like  Giannis at 16 or Kawhi at 15 or Kobe at 13.

I'm not really repsonding to you in particular, sorry if it came across that way. I was repsonding to posters who said stuff like Jaylen was the consesus number eight guy, or nobody but Ainge had Jaylen at three.

As a matter of fact i think we pretty much agree, Jaylen was a great who went in the range he should have. Th only part of your statement I have a problem with is the inferecne he was mocked at 3 because people knew Ainge was interested in him. People had him at three well before that, and even guys like Kevin o Connor who may have had him there becasue of those rumors were very high  on him and thought he deserved that draft slot. He wasnt the consesus 6th-8th bets player in the draft. Thats my point.

Anyway to answer the actual question of this thread, dany ainge probably deserves like a B, or B+ with upwward potntial if brown/tatum recah their cielings. 

Title: Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
Post by: wiley on April 24, 2018, 03:36:44 AM
Okay, lets take this point by point.

Its true that a lot of guys put Jaylen Brown at number three after he had work outs with the Celtics n the weeks before the draft and rumors started circulating that they were interested in him. But there were cterianly mock drafts that had him going to the Celtics even before these rumors spread. SI for instance had Brown as the 3rd pick a full month before the NBA draft and before they brought him in for workouts. So the idea that his mock draft ratings were based entirely on where people thought he would go are false. This is further disputed by the fact that there were mock drafts that had him going right after us to the Suns. To Nickagneta, I refer you to mock draft from both Fox Sports One and Forbes who at one point or another in the month before the draft had him going to the Suns. If you think about it this makes sense, the Suns the very next year took Josh Jackson. An athletic swingman who was strong defensively but cant shoot (sound familiar?).

Now, mock drafts are often bases on projections, but this idea cuts both ways. You can say that mocks had Brown at 3rd because of the Celtics rumor, but a lot of mocks didn't have him at third because he didn't fit our perceived needs at the time. He wasn't a shooter, and he wasn't the guy the Bulls were rumored to be interested in. A lot of that Kris Dunn hype was because we were gonna flip him for Jimmy Butler. In other words, maybe Brown was a worthy pick at 3 but wasn't mocked there because of perceived need. The very fact that so many of these mock drafts were trying to project 3-8 based on teem needs tells you how closely the 3-8 prospects in the draft were ranked.

Now I'm willing to concede that in general more mocks had him going 7 or 8 than 3-6. A 2:1 ratio in that regard sounds about right. But thats far from a consensus. And as I've already pointed out alot of msart people like Kevin o connor and Nate Duncan has him ranked pretty high. Perhaps the best argument that Jaylen was in play much higher than 7th or 8th is the fact that Dany took him at 3rd. If Ainge could have moved back to 7th and gotten Jaylen, who he obviosuly thought was the best pick, don't you think he would have? Even if only for an extra 2nd round pick or late first? Obvisuouly he would have, he did it with Tatum. the fact that he didn't is a pretty good indicator he thought Brown would be gone by then. Probably to Pheonix at 4.

Now let me give you guys a history lesson. Before that college season Jaylen Brown was rated almost universally as a top 3 pick. He was the 2nd rated recruit in his class our of high school. A bad season at Cal culminating in a Kevin Pelton piece that has Brown projecting terribly in statistical models moving forward tanked his position in mock drafts. But then as people did more in depth analysis he started recovering a bit. People pointed at that Cal was a terrible fit, he was asked to basically play PG which he wasn't equipped to do on a team with a bad coach and no spacing leading to terrible efficiency. With NBA spacing he would probably fit better. In addition although he shot bad at Cal from 3, he was a pretty decent shooter from distance in high school. Then he started going to workouts, and not surprisingly he is the exact type of player who looks awesome in an empty gym and his stock recovered yet further. Brown became a test case for analytics vs traditional scouting and upside projection. Hence the fact that he was all over the place in mocks.

Anyway, my point in all this is Brown wasn't a reach. If you went ahead and asked all these guys writing these mocks who had him 7 or 8 whether they'd be surprised if he went 3, they would say no. And thats my point. That was the prevailing opinion at the time, 3-8 was fluid and although Brown has his warts so did everyone else in that range. We shouldn't be sitting here giving Ainge credit for seeing something nobody else did when numerous people had that as the pick. Hell, I had him number 2 on my board and I am far from a draft expert! That being said Ainge sill made a hell of a pick, having #3 in a supposed 2 player draft and coming anyway with arguably the 2nd best guy is impressive.
Who said Brown was a reach at 3? People are saying "most" draft sites and scouts had him in the 6-8 area. I said I didn't see him in the 3rd spot until shortly before the draft, most likely because word leaked that Ainge liked him.Saying Kevin O'Connor, former CBer and guy with Celtic inside info says he would go at 3, only helps my point.

I never said Ainge was some sort of drafting savante because he chose Brown. Check the posts. Heck, check my entire posting history. All I am saying is I remember Brown being listed in the 6-8 area through most of the lead up to the draft and then being listed 3rd to the Cs just before the draft. I am guessing that is because word got out Ainge liked Brown. Certainly having a tremendous shooting workout with the Celtics helped Brown.

Others posting proof that Brown was indeed looked at as 6-8 before the draft by tons of sites and only by 1 or 2 beforehand, one being Kevin O'Connor, a Celticblog local with connections, kinda proves my point.

Ainge made a good call on Brown. Brown was listed as one of 4-5 to chose after Simmons and Ingram. Bender, Chriss, Heild, Dunn or Murray might have been okay picks or bad picks. But Ainge chose wisely. Its not like he pulled a rabbit out of his hat. Its not some miraculous pick. But, in retrospect, it could be the best pick in that draft though again, not some out of left field miraculous pick like  Giannis at 16 or Kawhi at 15 or Kobe at 13.

Yes, I too was not trying to call Ainge a genius for the Brown pick. 

But out of 6 similarly rated guys he picked the right one by a landslide (at this moment...let's see how others progress...).  And, he was seen by the majority as at the back end of those 6, not the front end...

It was not a coup, not a move on the level of buying a pick from Phoenix and taking Rondo, but Ainge took plenty of crap for the Brown pick.  I had wanted Dunn, but Brown's awesome shooting performance in his workout for the C's mad me reconsider and so I trusted the pick even though it wasn't my favorite. Still, most of the way through Brown's rookie year I fretted when he made mistakes, remembering blogging critics and others who said he didn't have a great feel for the game. 
Title: Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
Post by: Moranis on April 24, 2018, 08:21:29 AM
Okay, lets take this point by point.

Its true that a lot of guys put Jaylen Brown at number three after he had work outs with the Celtics n the weeks before the draft and rumors started circulating that they were interested in him. But there were cterianly mock drafts that had him going to the Celtics even before these rumors spread. SI for instance had Brown as the 3rd pick a full month before the NBA draft and before they brought him in for workouts. So the idea that his mock draft ratings were based entirely on where people thought he would go are false. This is further disputed by the fact that there were mock drafts that had him going right after us to the Suns. To Nickagneta, I refer you to mock draft from both Fox Sports One and Forbes who at one point or another in the month before the draft had him going to the Suns. If you think about it this makes sense, the Suns the very next year took Josh Jackson. An athletic swingman who was strong defensively but cant shoot (sound familiar?).

Now, mock drafts are often bases on projections, but this idea cuts both ways. You can say that mocks had Brown at 3rd because of the Celtics rumor, but a lot of mocks didn't have him at third because he didn't fit our perceived needs at the time. He wasn't a shooter, and he wasn't the guy the Bulls were rumored to be interested in. A lot of that Kris Dunn hype was because we were gonna flip him for Jimmy Butler. In other words, maybe Brown was a worthy pick at 3 but wasn't mocked there because of perceived need. The very fact that so many of these mock drafts were trying to project 3-8 based on teem needs tells you how closely the 3-8 prospects in the draft were ranked.

Now I'm willing to concede that in general more mocks had him going 7 or 8 than 3-6. A 2:1 ratio in that regard sounds about right. But thats far from a consensus. And as I've already pointed out alot of msart people like Kevin o connor and Nate Duncan has him ranked pretty high. Perhaps the best argument that Jaylen was in play much higher than 7th or 8th is the fact that Dany took him at 3rd. If Ainge could have moved back to 7th and gotten Jaylen, who he obviosuly thought was the best pick, don't you think he would have? Even if only for an extra 2nd round pick or late first? Obvisuouly he would have, he did it with Tatum. the fact that he didn't is a pretty good indicator he thought Brown would be gone by then. Probably to Pheonix at 4.

Now let me give you guys a history lesson. Before that college season Jaylen Brown was rated almost universally as a top 3 pick. He was the 2nd rated recruit in his class our of high school. A bad season at Cal culminating in a Kevin Pelton piece that has Brown projecting terribly in statistical models moving forward tanked his position in mock drafts. But then as people did more in depth analysis he started recovering a bit. People pointed at that Cal was a terrible fit, he was asked to basically play PG which he wasn't equipped to do on a team with a bad coach and no spacing leading to terrible efficiency. With NBA spacing he would probably fit better. In addition although he shot bad at Cal from 3, he was a pretty decent shooter from distance in high school. Then he started going to workouts, and not surprisingly he is the exact type of player who looks awesome in an empty gym and his stock recovered yet further. Brown became a test case for analytics vs traditional scouting and upside projection. Hence the fact that he was all over the place in mocks.

Anyway, my point in all this is Brown wasn't a reach. If you went ahead and asked all these guys writing these mocks who had him 7 or 8 whether they'd be surprised if he went 3, they would say no. And thats my point. That was the prevailing opinion at the time, 3-8 was fluid and although Brown has his warts so did everyone else in that range. We shouldn't be sitting here giving Ainge credit for seeing something nobody else did when numerous people had that as the pick. Hell, I had him number 2 on my board and I am far from a draft expert! That being said Ainge sill made a hell of a pick, having #3 in a supposed 2 player draft and coming anyway with arguably the 2nd best guy is impressive.
Who said Brown was a reach at 3? People are saying "most" draft sites and scouts had him in the 6-8 area. I said I didn't see him in the 3rd spot until shortly before the draft, most likely because word leaked that Ainge liked him.Saying Kevin O'Connor, former CBer and guy with Celtic inside info says he would go at 3, only helps my point.

I never said Ainge was some sort of drafting savante because he chose Brown. Check the posts. Heck, check my entire posting history. All I am saying is I remember Brown being listed in the 6-8 area through most of the lead up to the draft and then being listed 3rd to the Cs just before the draft. I am guessing that is because word got out Ainge liked Brown. Certainly having a tremendous shooting workout with the Celtics helped Brown.

Others posting proof that Brown was indeed looked at as 6-8 before the draft by tons of sites and only by 1 or 2 beforehand, one being Kevin O'Connor, a Celticblog local with connections, kinda proves my point.

Ainge made a good call on Brown. Brown was listed as one of 4-5 to chose after Simmons and Ingram. Bender, Chriss, Heild, Dunn or Murray might have been okay picks or bad picks. But Ainge chose wisely. Its not like he pulled a rabbit out of his hat. Its not some miraculous pick. But, in retrospect, it could be the best pick in that draft though again, not some out of left field miraculous pick like  Giannis at 16 or Kawhi at 15 or Kobe at 13.

I'm not really repsonding to you in particular, sorry if it came across that way. I was repsonding to posters who said stuff like Jaylen was the consesus number eight guy, or nobody but Ainge had Jaylen at three.

As a matter of fact i think we pretty much agree, Jaylen was a great who went in the range he should have. Th only part of your statement I have a problem with is the inferecne he was mocked at 3 because people knew Ainge was interested in him. People had him at three well before that, and even guys like Kevin o Connor who may have had him there becasue of those rumors were very high  on him and thought he deserved that draft slot. He wasnt the consesus 6th-8th bets player in the draft. Thats my point.

Anyway to answer the actual question of this thread, dany ainge probably deserves like a B, or B+ with upwward potntial if brown/tatum recah their cielings.
except no one in this thread said any of the things you were allegedly responding to. 
Title: Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
Post by: Fan from VT on April 24, 2018, 01:08:52 PM
Grading drafting ability is hard; context always has to be taken into account.

By my count, the following players have been on at least 1 All-NBA team since 2003:

Al Horford^
Al Jefferson^
Allen Iverson* (6)
Amar'e Stoudemire (4)
Andre Drummond^
Andrew Bogut^
Andrew Bynum
Anthony Davis^
Baron Davis
Ben Wallace (3)
Blake Griffin^
Brandon Roy
Carlos Boozer^
Carmelo Anthony^
Chauncey Billups
Chris Bosh
Chris Paul (2)^
Damian Lillard^
David Lee^
DeAndre Jordan^
DeMar DeRozan^
Deron Williams^
Derrick Rose^
Dirk Nowitzki^ (10)
Draymond Green^
Dwight Howard^
Dwyane Wade (4)^
Elton Brand
Giannis Antetokounmpo^
Gilbert Arenas
Goran Dragić^
Isaiah Thomas^
James Harden^
Jason Kidd* (6)
Jermaine O'Neal (3)
Jimmy Butler^
Joakim Noah^
Joe Johnson^
John Wall^
Kawhi Leonard^
Kevin Durant^
Kevin Garnett (6)
Kevin Love^
Klay Thompson^
Kobe Bryant (10)
Kyle Lowry^
Kyrie Irving^
LaMarcus Aldridge^
LeBron James^
Manu Ginóbili^
Marc Gasol^
Michael Redd
Pau Gasol^
Paul George^
Paul Pierce (3)
Paul Pierce (4)
Peja Stojaković
Rajon Rondo^
Ray Allen* (2)
Ron Artes [d
Rudy Gobert^
Russell Westbrook^
Sam Cassell
Shaquille O'Neal* (11)
Shawn Marion
Stephen Curry^
Steve Nash* (3)
Tim Duncan (10)
Tony Parker^
Tracy McGrady* (4)
Tyson Chandler^
Yao Ming*
Zach Randolph^

So those are the guys eligible for "superstar" status.

Of those players, these are the ones that could have been drafted by Ainge:

Al Jefferson - was drafted by Ainge.
Brandon Roy - Traded for Telfair and the Ratliff contract
David Lee - 30th pick.
DeAndre Jordan - 35th pick - Hated the Giddens pick at the time.
Draymond Green - 35th pick (in fact, the 3rd pick that Golden State had that draft!)
Giannis Antetokounmpo - 15th (this one hurts).
Goran Dragic - 45th pick.
Isaiah Thomas - 60 Jujuan Johnson draft.
Jimmy Butler - 30 Jujuan Johnson draft.
Joakim Noah - 10th pick, we traded #5 for Ray Allen.
Kyle Lowry - 24th; Rondo taken at 21. Lowry better career, though Rondo's peak pre-injury was preferable.
Marc Gasol - 48th
Rajon Rondo - Picked by ainge
Rudy Gobert - 27 (Olynyk draft).

So, which ones should be held against Ainge? A lot of not drafting a "superstar" is that there aren't a lot of superstars. When there are, they are usually at the very tip top of the draft, or are complete crapshoots. I mean, a lot of the above players were in no way consensus elite prospects. Further, I'd argue that it is hard to convincingly say that the teams that drafted many of the above players are super clever or excellent at drafting, given that many times those teams either passed on these superstars once in the draft before taking them, or failed to trade up to make sure they nabbed this superstar player.

One way to look at the above is that there are 14 players who have made all-nba that were available with draft picks Ainge had, and Ainge picked 2 of those 14. There are 30 NBA teams. So that's kind of interesting.

There are 2 that stand out:
- Leaping up to pick 13 for the right to pass on Giannis sucks
- Drafting JR giddens for any reason whatsoever, but more than that, passing on Jordan to do so.

Thank you for writing this out. Great job of putting the whole one all-star thing in perspective..


Thanks. And just to clarify, i was using 1 all-nba, 1st, 2nd or 3rd team, not all star.

OK, I wanted to make sure I wasn't being too nice to Ainge by only counting "All-NBA" missed as "missed superstars," so I expanded it to All-Stars as well.

In addition to the above mentioned All-NBA players that Ainge could have drafted but did not, he also "missed" these All-Stars:

David West^
Jameer Nelson^
Josh Howard
Kyle Korver^
Mo William
Paul Millsap^

Not many to add, really, so the original premise holds up.
The 2003 draft had a lost of misses by a lot of people. David West, Josh Howard, Kyle Korver, and Mo Williams had almost every team pass on them at least once. We came a way with Banks and Perkins.

Jameer could have been drafted by Ainge, but only by skipping Al Jefferson, since Jameer was taken before Tony Allen and Delonte.

Millsap was taken after Rondo, so it would have meant missing out on Rondo or acquiring another pick.
Title: Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
Post by: Fan from VT on April 24, 2018, 01:11:16 PM
Grading drafting ability is hard; context always has to be taken into account.

By my count, the following players have been on at least 1 All-NBA team since 2003:

Al Horford^
Al Jefferson^
Allen Iverson* (6)
Amar'e Stoudemire (4)
Andre Drummond^
Andrew Bogut^
Andrew Bynum
Anthony Davis^
Baron Davis
Ben Wallace (3)
Blake Griffin^
Brandon Roy
Carlos Boozer^
Carmelo Anthony^
Chauncey Billups
Chris Bosh
Chris Paul (2)^
Damian Lillard^
David Lee^
DeAndre Jordan^
DeMar DeRozan^
Deron Williams^
Derrick Rose^
Dirk Nowitzki^ (10)
Draymond Green^
Dwight Howard^
Dwyane Wade (4)^
Elton Brand
Giannis Antetokounmpo^
Gilbert Arenas
Goran Dragić^
Isaiah Thomas^
James Harden^
Jason Kidd* (6)
Jermaine O'Neal (3)
Jimmy Butler^
Joakim Noah^
Joe Johnson^
John Wall^
Kawhi Leonard^
Kevin Durant^
Kevin Garnett (6)
Kevin Love^
Klay Thompson^
Kobe Bryant (10)
Kyle Lowry^
Kyrie Irving^
LaMarcus Aldridge^
LeBron James^
Manu Ginóbili^
Marc Gasol^
Michael Redd
Pau Gasol^
Paul George^
Paul Pierce (3)
Paul Pierce (4)
Peja Stojaković
Rajon Rondo^
Ray Allen* (2)
Ron Artes [d
Rudy Gobert^
Russell Westbrook^
Sam Cassell
Shaquille O'Neal* (11)
Shawn Marion
Stephen Curry^
Steve Nash* (3)
Tim Duncan (10)
Tony Parker^
Tracy McGrady* (4)
Tyson Chandler^
Yao Ming*
Zach Randolph^

So those are the guys eligible for "superstar" status.

Of those players, these are the ones that could have been drafted by Ainge:

Al Jefferson - was drafted by Ainge.
Brandon Roy - Traded for Telfair and the Ratliff contract
David Lee - 30th pick.
DeAndre Jordan - 35th pick - Hated the Giddens pick at the time.
Draymond Green - 35th pick (in fact, the 3rd pick that Golden State had that draft!)
Giannis Antetokounmpo - 15th (this one hurts).
Goran Dragic - 45th pick.
Isaiah Thomas - 60 Jujuan Johnson draft.
Jimmy Butler - 30 Jujuan Johnson draft.
Joakim Noah - 10th pick, we traded #5 for Ray Allen.
Kyle Lowry - 24th; Rondo taken at 21. Lowry better career, though Rondo's peak pre-injury was preferable.
Marc Gasol - 48th
Rajon Rondo - Picked by ainge
Rudy Gobert - 27 (Olynyk draft).

So, which ones should be held against Ainge? A lot of not drafting a "superstar" is that there aren't a lot of superstars. When there are, they are usually at the very tip top of the draft, or are complete crapshoots. I mean, a lot of the above players were in no way consensus elite prospects. Further, I'd argue that it is hard to convincingly say that the teams that drafted many of the above players are super clever or excellent at drafting, given that many times those teams either passed on these superstars once in the draft before taking them, or failed to trade up to make sure they nabbed this superstar player.

One way to look at the above is that there are 14 players who have made all-nba that were available with draft picks Ainge had, and Ainge picked 2 of those 14. There are 30 NBA teams. So that's kind of interesting.

There are 2 that stand out:
- Leaping up to pick 13 for the right to pass on Giannis sucks
- Drafting JR giddens for any reason whatsoever, but more than that, passing on Jordan to do so.

Thank you for writing this out. Great job of putting the whole one all-star thing in perspective..


Thanks. And just to clarify, i was using 1 all-nba, 1st, 2nd or 3rd team, not all star.

OK, I wanted to make sure I wasn't being too nice to Ainge by only counting "All-NBA" missed as "missed superstars," so I expanded it to All-Stars as well.

In addition to the above mentioned All-NBA players that Ainge could have drafted but did not, he also "missed" these All-Stars:

David West^
Jameer Nelson^
Josh Howard
Kyle Korver^
Mo William
Paul Millsap^

Not many to add, really, so the original premise holds up.
The 2003 draft had a lost of misses by a lot of people. David West, Josh Howard, Kyle Korver, and Mo Williams had almost every team pass on them at least once. We came a way with Banks and Perkins.

Jameer could have been drafted by Ainge, but only by skipping Al Jefferson, since Jameer was taken before Tony Allen and Delonte.

Millsap was taken after Rondo, so it would have meant missing out on Rondo or acquiring another pick.

So basically, I think the premise stands:
It is not that remarkable to have never drafted a superstar in 15 years, when you take into account
1. Draft position
2. Draft position hit rate
3. What else "draft capital" was used for (trading for KG, Kyrie, and Ray, who were/are superstars).
4. He did draft 2 guys who made all-NBA lists (Rondo, Al Jeff) and 1 all-star (rondo).
Title: Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
Post by: pokeKingCurtis on May 03, 2018, 11:49:29 PM
Was checking out the 6ers' SBNation webpage, based on recommendation from a fellow CB'er. One was lamenting about how the 6ers' loss today was a result of missing too many draft picks (https://www.libertyballers.com/2018/5/3/17315390/sixers-vs-celtics-game-2-game-thread-philadelphia-boston-embiid-simmons-tatum-horford).

Obviously we're in different stages of different styles of rebuild, and this is just two games, but should be interesting to see what happens in years to come.