I think it's time to put the emotions aside and have an honest talk about this team.
It's always been clear that you need top-level talent to compete in this league. The true contenders essentially always have a Top 5 player. You take quality over quantity every time.
I loved Paul Pierce. He's my favorite player of the modern era. Pierce probably peaked somewhere around the 10th-15th best player in the NBA (never once made All-NBA 1st team). Even with a second all-star by his side (Antoine Walker), it's notable that Pierce never cracked 50 wins. In Paul's 9 seasons prior to the arrival of KG, he missed the playoffs in 5 of those seasons. His team peaked in a flukey 2002 season in which the "Leastern Conference" was a total joke. They won 49 games and lost in the ECF. I never saw that team as a real contender. It was a fluke run based on circumstance. I didn't see it as a massive disappointment when they won 44 games and got eliminated in the 2nd round the next season. I didn't blame Pierce for this or call him a cancer (though in 2005, many fans wanted him gone). He was who he was. Boston didn't get out of the trenches of perpetual mediocrity until the arrival of KG - a true NBA superstar top 5 player in his peak.
2017-18 Celtics: Coming into that season, we saw a ton of roster turnover. Some expected the team to regress as a result. I personally had expectations that the team could threaten to win 60 games and make the Conference Finals. I saw Kyrie Irving as a Top 25 player (he's never made All-NBA 1st or 2nd team). Clearly an exceptionally gifted/efficient scorer. That said, I was on record at the time saying that I actually saw Gordon Hayward as the team's best two-way player. I was hopeful that Hayward could build on his remarkable All-Star season in Utah and prove to be our main guy. Given that Brad had been able to 53 games with lesser players, 60 wins and an ECF exit seemed plausible with a Hayward/Kyrie/Horford Big-3.
Post Hayward Injury: As soon as Hayward went down, expectations dived. Charles Barkley said our season was over. Who can blame him? It was a team built around a Top 25 player, Al Horford, and kids. Projecting 45 wins out of that team would have been reasonable. I still had faith in Brad's ability to get the most out of the group. 50 wins and a 2nd round exit seemed plausible with a Kyrie/Horford/Morris? big 3.
Surprising 2018 Regular season: Remarkably, when everyone had written off the 0-2 Celtics, Kyrie Irving lead the group to a 16 game win streak. Jayson Tatum was better than most expected. Jaylen Brown, despite averaging 7 points and getting multiple Playoff DNPs as a rookie, was perfectly mirroring the statistical contributions that Jae Crowder had made the year prior. Up until Kyrie's injury, the Celtics had an admirable 46-20 record (57 win pace). Credit the early season win streak, Kyrie's phenomenal play, and the young team locking in and executing at their max capability.
Post Kyrie Injury: Kyrie leaves the game early on March 11th - effectively ending his season. Over the last 16 games of the regular season, the Celtics surprisingly were a competent 9-7 without him. That's a 46 win pace. The decent play was largely the result of Terry Rozier stepping up in his shoes. Over that stretch of games, Rozier averaged 15 points, 6.1 rebounds, 4.8 assists and 1.1 steals - easing some of the loss of Kyrie. The team was also benefited by Morris, Brown and Tatum all increasing their scoring output to 17ppg+ over that stretch.
2018 Playoffs Round 1: Most wrote off Boston. How could a team of kids compete without either Kyrie or Hayward? Truthfully, we had just seen the Kyrie/Hayward-less Celtics play surprisingly well. Thanks to Rozier's admirable play, optimistically this was a 46 win team on paper. This proved true in the first round. Matched up against a 44 win 7th seed, we played them neck and neck. The Bucks (under an interim coach) won all three of their home games. Terry Rozier was incredible in this series averaging 17.6 points, 6.7 assists, 4.3 rebounds with 40%/39%/82% shooting. It all came down to Game 7 - in which Rozier had a career game: 26 points, 9 assists, 6 rebounds with 10-16 shooting and 5-8 from three. Boston advances.
Consider: The question you should be asking yourself is - what happens if Terry Rozier doesn't play out of his ass in that Bucks series? We could have easily lost that series and nobody would have been surprised. The expectations heading into 2018-19 wouldn't have been nearly as high.
2018 Playoffs Round 2: Once again, the experts wrote off Boston. Clearly Philly was unprepared for them. Facemask Embiid played poorly. Simmons looked lost in his first playoff. Rozier continued his strong play, but the real star of this series was Jayson Tatum averaging 23ppg. The improbable playoff run continued.
2018 ECF: We lost this series in 7 games. I'd be more impressed if the Pacers hadn't also taken the Cavs to 7 games in Round 1. Pacers actually outscored the Cavs over the course of that series - unlike Boston who got blown out in multiple games. Cavs go on to get swept in the Finals. Game 7 of this series showed why having top-level talent is necessary int he playoffs. Rozier went 2-14. Brown went 5-18. Smart went 1-10. Morris went 5-14. Tatum stepped up (24 points on 9-17), but it wasn't enough.
2018 Playoffs in Context: The weird thing about the 2018 playoff run was that everyone acknowledged the team was grossly overachieving - until it was over and then people acted like they were actually world-beaters. It's like we all understood in the moment how remarkable it was to see a historically young team go as far as they did - the epitome of the underdog with guys like Terry Rozier swinging well above their weight class - and then somehow over the course of the Summer the perception shifted to the 2018 Celtics having actually been a contender.
The 2017-18 Celtic Playoff team wasn't a contender. At their best they played at a 46 win pace, took 7 games to beat a 44 win team in Round 1, eliminated an injured overwhelmed 50 win team in Round 2, and then lost to a 1-man squad in the Eastern Conference Finals. That team was no more a "contender" than the fluke 2002 team that won 49 games and lost in the ECF.
2018-19 Offseason Expectations: We all bought into the idea this was a juggernaut... myself included. The vision was that Brown would take another step towards stardom (after averaging 18 in the playoffs), Tatum would take a superstar leap (as many guys with his pedigree/potential had done in the past), Hayward would return at an all-star level, and Kyrie's return would give us a potent bench with borderline star Rozier leading the way. I thought there was a real chance our entire starting lineup would shoot above 40% from three. It seemed like 60-67 wins and the ECF was plausible.
Reality of 2018-19: This team had numerous problems. As we now know, young guys like Brown and Rozier were actively sulking about their diminished roles. Hayward himself admits he could sense the frustration from players that his return had impacted their opportunities. It was also clear that the team had "too many guys" syndrome - with key players incapable of getting into a rhythm with minimized roles/opportunities. Let's go down the list:
- Hayward: Simply put, he wasn't ready. Everyone can acknowledge that now. He was dreadful at the start of the season. Some suggest he would have been better off coming back closer to the all-star break. The team admits it was a mistake throwing him out there early when his body wasn't prepared for it. While he showed some progress late, Hayward was essentially a role player last season. That's a huge hit for a team that needed him playing like a star to have a reasonable chance of making noise.
- Brown: He was awful out of the gate. He was shooting under 30% from three for the first couple months. Part of it may have been injuries. Part of it may have been his inability to fit in with his new role. Early on, he tried to course-correct by forcing the issue and ended up digging himself further into a hole. He was also prone to lapses in effort and poor defense - to which Marcus Smart and Morris ripped into him with cameras on. He got much better as the season progressed - but if you were banking our success on him making a leap - his regression certainly didn't help.
- Jayson Tatum: He never made the leap. While he saw his numbers go up from his regular season averages, he wasn't the 23ppg scorer we saw in the Philly series. He was frequently criticized for his shot selection. Granted, it's unlikely he was ever going to make a leap without more minutes/touches.
- Rozier: It's fair to say Rozier was terrible off the bench. We've also heard whispers all season he was a locker room problem. He did prove to be more capable when starting (13 points, 5 assists, 5 rebounds, 1.7 steals with 43%/41%/90% shooting in 14 games as a starter).
- Kyrie: Kyrie was still Kyrie. A top 25 player who put up outstanding regular season stats: 23.8 points, 6.9 assists, 5 rebounds, 48.7%/40%/87% shooting. He obviously had a contentious relationship with the media, but most in the organization acknowledge that he was a solid teammate and leader.
So Who is to Blame?: Obviously, Kyrie is the scapegoat. He's who everyone wants to blame, because it's easy. I really think you need to look at this team for what it is, though. Without Kyrie, we were at best a 46 win team that won a couple surprising playoff series. With him, we won 49 games and lost in the 2nd round. No-doubt, the team underachieved, but there's several issues that contributed to that. Guys gunning for minutes in contract years, young guys predictably playing like young guys - and most importantly ... the simply fact that outside of Kyrie Irving (a top 25 player) this team lacks star talent. Horford is great, but he's a fringe star at best. Hayward was a no-show. Brown and Tatum were at best NBA-starter level talent.
The simple fact is, this roster made perfect sense as a 49 win team. The simple fact is, there is nothing at all surprising about this roster getting their ass kicked by a 60 win team with an MVP. If you think giving all Kyrie's minutes to Rozier would have changed that, you're delusional. Honestly, there's maybe only 2-3 guys in the entire league you could swap Kyrie with (someone like Durant) and actually have a chance of beating that 60 win Bucks team.
49 wins and a 2nd round exit makes a lot more sense than our scrappy young team making the ECF two seasons ago.
We wanted this team to be The Golden State Warriors of the Eastern Conference. The reality is we're the Oklahoma City Thunder of the Easter Conference. Paul George is on Kyrie Irving's level and despite having Westbrook as a sidekick, they too only won 49 games. They actually lost in Round 1. That makes sense.
Heading Forward: A lot of fans seem to want Kyrie gone. It reminds me a lot of 2005 when Celtic fans wanted Pierce gone following his embarrassing immature playoff antics. Difference is, Pierce was actually under contract. In-fact, Ainge actually tried to ship Pierce out that offseason (to Portland), but Pierce reportedly killed the deal. With Kyrie, we're dealing with a free agent. If he leaves, we'll get nothing in return. No compensation. No cap space. No picks. No prospects. No replacement. He walks and a 1-star team loses it's only star. At that point, you're going to need to have a LOT of faith in Brown or Tatum making that leap - or believe that Terry Rozier can slot in as a fringe star in the same way he did back in the 2018 playoffs. Even then, you're probably looking at a team with a 2nd round ceiling. Given how much stronger the top of the East has become, it wouldn't be too shocking to see Brown/Tatum/Rozier plateau and win 35 games next year without Kyrie.
I don't blame Kyrie for this season. If anything, I blame myself and other fans for having unreasonable expectations of a fairly mediocre roster. My hope is that Kyrie stays long-term and we build a team around him that makes sense. Maybe that involves Anthony Davis. My guess is that Davis could rehab Kyrie's image in the same way Kevin Garnett rehabbed Paul Pierce's image back in 2008. Even if Davis isn't in the plans, I'd strongly encourage fans to look at this team with some perspective before rooting for the Knicks to sign our best player. It would be like if in 2003 following Boston's "disappointing" 2nd round exit fans were like "I hope Paul Pierce abandons the Celtics and joins the Lakers - the heck with that guy."
Topic: It's time to have some perspective (Read 5603 times)