Red Sox 2025 Off Season

[Roy H.]

The deferred money in the contract knocks the net present value of Bregman's three-year deal into the $90MM range, ESPN's Buster Olney reports.

$30k/year much easier on the heart than $40k

For sure.

[Vermont Green]

The deferred money in the contract knocks the net present value of Bregman's three-year deal into the $90MM range, ESPN's Buster Olney reports.

$30k/year much easier on the heart than $40k

For sure.

I guess that deferring money is the game these days but doesn't that just mean they will have less money to spend on the team later?  Paying on the deferred money to someone not even on the team in the future doesn't make sense to me.  I think this is going to catch up with the Dodgers at some point and all the teams doing this.

How does this work if Bregman is traded?  I know who pays what is negatable in any deal, but if it is a "normal" trade, Bregman for a prospect or a pitcher or something, who would be responsible for the deferred money?  Is it prorated or something?  And these opt outs, how does that impact the deferred money?

What I expect to happen is that Bregman will get traded by the Sox at some point and Campbell or someone will be ready to take over.  Or he will opt out.  I like Bregman as a short term fix at 2B/RH Bat.  Or longer term as a DH.

[BitterJim]

The deferred money in the contract knocks the net present value of Bregman's three-year deal into the $90MM range, ESPN's Buster Olney reports.

$30k/year much easier on the heart than $40k

For sure.

I guess that deferring money is the game these days but doesn't that just mean they will have less money to spend on the team later?  Paying on the deferred money to someone not even on the team in the future doesn't make sense to me.  I think this is going to catch up with the Dodgers at some point and all the teams doing this.

How does this work if Bregman is traded?  I know who pays what is negatable in any deal, but if it is a "normal" trade, Bregman for a prospect or a pitcher or something, who would be responsible for the deferred money?  Is it prorated or something?  And these opt outs, how does that impact the deferred money?

What I expect to happen is that Bregman will get traded by the Sox at some point and Campbell or someone will be ready to take over.  Or he will opt out.  I like Bregman as a short term fix at 2B/RH Bat.  Or longer term as a DH.

If it's anything like what the ABA used to do, they'll put the money into bonds (or other safe investments) now and just not forget about it until they have to pay him.

I'd imagine the deferred money would be treated like normal salary (just paid later), but I'm really not very knowledgeable about MLB contracts (I guess there isn't enough cap shenanigans to get me interested)

[keevsnick]

I don't mind that contract.

The Red Sox can afford to overpay on a short term deal in the near term when the next three years are going to feature pre-arb young guys like Mayer, Anthony and Campbell.

[Goldstar88]

Well, hopefully Kraft follows suit. Otherwise he will be the cheapest owner of a major sports team in the area.

[Phantom255x]

Even with the deferrals, now the Sox are approximately 5-6M over the first CBT threshold

If so, I'd prefer they go out and still add another reliever (maybe Robertson). My guess is though, if they are competitive and wild-card caliber, they'll be fine paying a miniscule tax, but if they are not and suck, they could deal some guys at the deadline (sellers) and get under the CBT threshold anyways. There's some flexibility.

But man if they add Robertson this would be a helluva offseason. Crochet, Bregman, Chapman, Buehler, Sandoval, Robertson. Then Giolito, Whitlock and Hendriks also coming back from injuries + Whitlock finally moving back to the bullpen as a multi-inning reliever is such a weapon.

[Vermont Green]

Even with the deferrals, now the Sox are approximately 5-6M over the first CBT threshold

If so, I'd prefer they go out and still add another reliever (maybe Robertson). My guess is though, if they are competitive and wild-card caliber, they'll be fine paying a miniscule tax, but if they are not and suck, they could deal some guys at the deadline (sellers) and get under the CBT threshold anyways. There's some flexibility.

But man if they add Robertson this would be a helluva offseason. Crochet, Bregman, Chapman, Buehler, Sandoval, Robertson. Then Giolito, Whitlock and Hendriks also coming back from injuries + Whitlock finally moving back to the bullpen as a multi-inning reliever is such a weapon.

And if absolutely everything goes right, maybe even Trevor Story is half decent.  Not everything will go right.  Pitchers will get hurt.  Hitters will be up and down.  But this team should be better than last season's 81 win team at worst.  And we still have most of the top prospect in the pipeline.  Wish we had more top prospect pitchers, that is probably a weakness.

[Phantom255x]

Even with the deferrals, now the Sox are approximately 5-6M over the first CBT threshold

If so, I'd prefer they go out and still add another reliever (maybe Robertson). My guess is though, if they are competitive and wild-card caliber, they'll be fine paying a miniscule tax, but if they are not and suck, they could deal some guys at the deadline (sellers) and get under the CBT threshold anyways. There's some flexibility.

But man if they add Robertson this would be a helluva offseason. Crochet, Bregman, Chapman, Buehler, Sandoval, Robertson. Then Giolito, Whitlock and Hendriks also coming back from injuries + Whitlock finally moving back to the bullpen as a multi-inning reliever is such a weapon.

And if absolutely everything goes right, maybe even Trevor Story is half decent.  Not everything will go right.  Pitchers will get hurt.  Hitters will be up and down.  But this team should be better than last season's 81 win team at worst.  And we still have most of the top prospect in the pipeline.  Wish we had more top prospect pitchers, that is probably a weakness.

Not everything will go right, but I agree I do think the pitching has significantly improved with the additions of Crochet, Buehler as well as adding Chapman, Hendriks (from injury) and Whitlock (from injury) to the bullpen. I'd be stunned if they can't win at least 85 games, but realistically they should be a team hovering around 87-90 wins and a wild card spot.

[Vermont Green]

The all star break is dead time for basketball so my mind drifts to the Red Sox.  Here is my projected opening day line up:

LF   Duran
SS  Story (yes, I will start the season optimistic)
3B  Devers
2B  Bregman
1B  Casas
C    Wong
RF   Abreu
DH  Yoshida
CF  Rafaela

SP1  Crochet
SP2  Houck
SP3  Bello
SP4  Buehler
SP5  Crawford
SP6  Giolito (as needed)

Hendricks, Chapman, Whitlock, etc in the bull pen.

They start spring training with 6 available starting pitchers.  It will probably be less than this by the start of the season.  Crochet is a question but high ceiling.  Houck and Bello should be solid young pitchers with some ceiling still.  Crawford I expect to be decent again, but nothing special.  I have no idea what to expect from Buehler and Giolito, but the floor for them is probably decent back of the rotation starters.  The bullpen looks fine, but you never know.

We scored runs fine last season and the line up looks better this season.  I don't expect run scoring to be an issue.  It will come down mostly to starting pitching as usual.  This rotation looks better and deeper than last season.  Even if a pitcher or 2 goes down, which they will, we have Sandoval and and Murphy working back from injury as reinforcements, on top of these 6.  It shouldn't be like last season where lack of starters forced bullpen games fairly often.

As to the line up, I have not given up on Story, I am expecting a bounce back season, but that is probably the biggest reach of my optimistic takes.  A bounce back year for Story could be hitting 0.270 with 18 home runs.  If he doesn't bounce back, SS will be something that may need to be addressed along the way.  I think this team is going to be good enough to be in the hunt so a deal along the way for a SS may be justified.

[Phantom255x]

Apparently the Sox are interested in Dylan Cease.

I don't see the point though. He's a 1-year rental and the rotation already is filled out with 6 guys, 7 if you include Sandoval later in the year.

I would rather just go get Robertson and further bolster that bullpen.

[Vermont Green]

Apparently the Sox are interested in Dylan Cease.

I don't see the point though. He's a 1-year rental and the rotation already is filled out with 6 guys, 7 if you include Sandoval later in the year.

I would rather just go get Robertson and further bolster that bullpen.

You can never have enough starting pitching, especially good starting pitching, but I am not sure how motivated San Diego would be to trade him now.  He could well turn out to be a 1-year rental, as said.  Padres probably hold on to him until the trade deadline, at least, unless they are blown away by some offer.  I don't see a need for the Sox to overpay to get him at this point.  They have made some good moves, improved the pitching, improved the lineup.  In aggregate, this is a good off season, even if no one deal is a major blockbuster.

No harm in checking in though.  Got to keep working it.

[byennie]

Apparently the Sox are interested in Dylan Cease.

I don't see the point though. He's a 1-year rental and the rotation already is filled out with 6 guys, 7 if you include Sandoval later in the year.

I would rather just go get Robertson and further bolster that bullpen.

If the price is not too high and he signs an extension, I'd do it for sure -- but that combo is highly unlikely, so in that case I agree.

More likely I think the Sox should take a minute to see if Anthony, Campbell and Mayer are as advertised, or at least they've hit on 2/3. Once that's established they have way more leverage to deal someone like Rafaela, Abreu, or any remaining prospects for pitching.

Ideally you're at:

Casas - Campbell - Mayer - Bregman (infield)
Anthony - Duran - Abreu (outfield)
Devers (DH / 3B)
Wong (C)
---
Depth or trade fodder: Story, Rafaela
Prospects to deal: Bleis, Arias, Perales, Cespedes

I don't know how much you can get for any of those pieces (and for example, Rafaela is a nice 4th outfielder / depth piece who could still play a lot). But maybe you end up with a big year from Bleis and trade him for pitching or something...

[Phantom255x]

There might be some drama brewing. Devers does not want to DH or play another position besides 3B lol. Seems they didn't really communicate this with him before signing Bregman either. Oof.

[rocknrollforyoursoul]

There might be some drama brewing. Devers does not want to DH or play another position besides 3B lol. Seems they didn't really communicate this with him before signing Bregman either. Oof.

Was just reading about this on Yardbarker. Devers seems adamant about staying at third. I knew he was bad there, but I just read that he's cost the Red Sox 80 defensive runs since he took over third in 2018. Bregman, on the other hand, has saved 28. I wonder if the Sox will force Devers to move, and if so, I wonder what the fallout with him will be.

[ozgod]

There might be some drama brewing. Devers does not want to DH or play another position besides 3B lol. Seems they didn't really communicate this with him before signing Bregman either. Oof.

Was just reading about this on Yardbarker. Devers seems adamant about staying at third. I knew he was bad there, but I just read that he's cost the Red Sox 80 defensive runs since he took over third in 2018. Bregman, on the other hand, has saved 28. I wonder if the Sox will force Devers to move, and if so, I wonder what the fallout with him will be.

It's his ego and pride talking. Get Papi to give him some of that Papi wisdom so he realizes he can make the HoF as a DH and he'll be fine. In any case, he can express a preference but doesn't get to pick. If Cora wants a Gold Glover instead of a butterfingers at third he's going to get a Gold Glover at third.