"MVP or Bust" Timeline

[PhoSita]

The Celtics' stated goal is to win a championship.

I don't think it's controversial to say that winning a championship almost always requires having a MVP caliber player on your team.  In other words, a player in the elite tier.  Sometimes there are only a few players like that in the league.  Other teams there may be as many as ten, perhaps even more.

Right now our eyes turn toward Anthony Davis.  He's the most obvious MVP caliber piece that is likely to be available to the Celtics to acquire in the near term.

What does the picture look like beyond Anthony Davis?  If the Celtics miss out on him, what's the next opportunity?


I wanted to plot this out so that it is really simple and clear to see.  I put together a list of all the players who currently seem to be in the "potential MVP" tier, or who seem that they could reach that tier in the future. 

For each player, I noted when their current contract will have one year left on it (as that is usually the ideal time for a trade), as well as their UFA year. 



Anthony Davis

- Trade 2019 ($25 million) ... Age 26
- FA 2020 ... Age 27

Kevin Durant

- FA 2019 ... Age 30

Kawhi Leonard
- FA 2019 ... Age 28

Giannis Antetokounmpo

- Trade 2020 ($27 million) ... Age 25
- FA 2021 ... Age 26

Damian Lillard

- Trade 2020 ($31 million) ... Age 30
- FA 2021 ... Age 31

Paul George

- Trade 2021 ($38 million) ... Age 31
- FA 2022 ... Age 32

LeBron James

- Trade 2021 ($41 million) ... Age 36
- FA 2022 ... Age 37

Joel Embiid

- Trade 2022 ($33 million) ... Age 28
- FA 2023 ... Age 29

Nikola Jokic

- Trade 2022 ($32 million) ... Age 27
- FA 2023 ... Age 28

James Harden

- Trade 2022 ($46 million) ... Age 33
- FA 2023  ... Age 34

Steph Curry

- Trade 2022 ($45 million) ... Age 33
- FA 2023 ... Age 34

Karl Towns

- Trade 2023 ($36 million) ... Age 27
- FA 2024 ... Age 28

Luka Doncic (?)

- Trade 2025 ($???) ... Age 25
- UFA 2026 .... Age 26



This summer is truly remarkable in that it appears there will be three players in the MVP-caliber tier either up for trade or available in UFA.  Unfortunately, the Celts most likely will not have cap space to offer a max contract.  Therefore it's probably Anthony Davis or bust, this summer.


After this summer ... Giannis is a has one year left on his deal after next season, UFA in 2021.  Right now, though, it seems very hard to believe that the Bucks will be in a position to consider trading him.  But it is perhaps possible that he might consider his options in FA in 2021.


Other than Giannis, the pickings are slim.  Do you want to try to acquire Dame Lillard at age 30 and pay him a long term max at age 31?

What about 36/37 year old LeBron James with a million miles on his legs?

How about 31/32 year old Paul George, who is maybe a borderline MVP type player in his best year (i.e. this season)?


If none of those entice you, the next big opportunity will be 2022, when both Embiid and Jokic will have one year left on their deals.  Then in 2023, Embiid and Jokic enter UFA and Towns will have one year left on his deal.


That means that if the Celts strike out this summer, we're probably looking at 3-4 seasons where they most likely won't have a realistic chance at adding a MVP caliber player. 


So what does that mean for team building strategy, if the goal is truly "championship or nothing"?

[footey]

I'm skeptical about our ability to land a marquee FA. Boston continues to be a destiny of last resort for most of these guys.  AD and KL are two recent examples.

I think it's trade for AD or bust, quite frankly. And I think Danny will be willing to sweeten the deal to make an offer that David Griffin can't refuse, provided that Kyrie commits to stay with our team. Because from team perspective, the return on our investment would not just be AD, it would be AD and Kyrie.

[angryguy77]

It really is AD or nothing at this point. Danny has built this team in mind to give him the option to make it a legit contender, one that will have a window open for multiple years. If he fails this summer, then I predict we'll be in limbo until the next rebuild.

[GreenEnvy]

I'm skeptical about our ability to land a marquee FA. Boston continues to be a destiny of last resort for most of these guys.  AD and KL are two recent examples.

I think it's trade for AD or bust, quite frankly. And I think Danny will be willing to sweeten the deal to make an offer that David Griffin can't refuse, provided that Kyrie commits to stay with our team. Because from team perspective, the return on our investment would not just be AD, it would be AD and Kyrie.

Both times the Celtics had enough cap space they signed marquee free agents, so I don稚 understand the first part of your post.

As for AD, I don稚 think there is much question as to whether DA will go get him if Kyrie resigns (it might take getting AD to keep Kyrie). The big question is will DA push in for AD even if Kyrie leaves?

Personally, I think Kyrie needs Davis. Kyrie can have the glory and be flashy, but AD will do whatever needs to be done to win.

[celticsclay]

Karl Anthony Towns?! He doesn't belong on this list right now.

[PhoSita]

Karl Anthony Towns?! He doesn't belong on this list right now.

I agree that he's not currently at that level, but he has the talent to reach that level, I think.  His raw numbers are already very good, it's a question of whether he can translate that into taking control of the game and leading his team on a regular basis.

[celticsclay]

Karl Anthony Towns?! He doesn't belong on this list right now.

I agree that he's not currently at that level, but he has the talent to reach that level, I think.  His raw numbers are already very good, it's a question of whether he can translate that into taking control of the game and leading his team on a regular basis.

Well by that logic we could trey young, or tatum, or heck, even whipping boy Ben Simmons. I think we have enough evidence at this point that Towns is more unlikely to reach that level than he is. It is definitely possible, I just don't think he is viewed on that same level by most GMs any more after being in the league for 4 years and not making any marked improvements on his team's wins.

[PhoSita]

Karl Anthony Towns?! He doesn't belong on this list right now.

I agree that he's not currently at that level, but he has the talent to reach that level, I think.  His raw numbers are already very good, it's a question of whether he can translate that into taking control of the game and leading his team on a regular basis.

Well by that logic we could trey young, or tatum, or heck, even whipping boy Ben Simmons. I think we have enough evidence at this point that Towns is more unlikely to reach that level than he is. It is definitely possible, I just don't think he is viewed on that same level by most GMs any more after being in the league for 4 years and not making any marked improvements on his team's wins.

I guess you're more down on towns than I am.

Don't get me wrong I have skepticism about him.  Seems like his team should be better. But we could say many of the same things about Davis.

I don't think Trae young or Ben Simmons will ever be at that level.


I'm interested to hear which players other people think belong on the list or shouldnt be on the list.



I do think that the odds are probably better if the goal is to acquire a player who hasn't yet realized his potential and then later achieves elite status on the Celtics, as opposed to adding a guy who is already at that level and is still in his prime.

Most of the time when MVP guys become available they are toward the end of their prime, this summer being an exception.

[johnnygreen]

The Celtics currently have an MVP caliber type of player in Kyrie Irving. I understand he has struggled the past few games and everyone is dragging his name through the mud. However, he is still a great player. This season, he averaged a career high in rebounds and assists to go along with 24 ppg. If he makes a slight adjustment to accepting contact, and not avoiding it, he could potentially add another 3 trips to the free throw line for an additional 6 points. He needs to figure out how he can get those superstar calls, where he starts to get around 8 free throw attempts per game consistently.

But I do agree, Danny needs to go after Anthony Davis. I feel like the potential to trade for Davis has kept Danny from making any moves these past two seasons, as far as making trades to help improve the team. My dream scenario is to re-sign Irving and trade for Davis. I just want the Davis saga over with.

[celticsclay]

Karl Anthony Towns?! He doesn't belong on this list right now.

I agree that he's not currently at that level, but he has the talent to reach that level, I think.  His raw numbers are already very good, it's a question of whether he can translate that into taking control of the game and leading his team on a regular basis.

Well by that logic we could trey young, or tatum, or heck, even whipping boy Ben Simmons. I think we have enough evidence at this point that Towns is more unlikely to reach that level than he is. It is definitely possible, I just don't think he is viewed on that same level by most GMs any more after being in the league for 4 years and not making any marked improvements on his team's wins.

I guess you're more down on towns than I am.

Don't get me wrong I have skepticism about him.  Seems like his team should be better. But we could say many of the same things about Davis.

I don't think Trae young or Ben Simmons will ever be at that level.


I'm interested to hear which players other people think belong on the list or shouldnt be on the list.



I do think that the odds are probably better if the goal is to acquire a player who hasn't yet realized his potential and then later achieves elite status on the Celtics, as opposed to adding a guy who is already at that level and is still in his prime.

Most of the time when MVP guys become available they are toward the end of their prime, this summer being an exception.

Well I don't think Lebron belongs on the list either. he may not even make all NBA 3rd team, and is 36 next season. I think he can still be a great player and get 25, 8, 5, but if he is putting up those numbers, he is playing crap defense. He also really needs to have his minutes monitored unlike anyone on this list besides Embid.  I don't really think anyone can think of players bouncing back to NBA MVPs at age 37 or age 38 etc. The oldest NBA MVPs in history were 35 I believe (Jordan, Malone). Given how much faster the pace is today and how much more complicated some of the schemes are, I don't think we will ever see an MVP at that age again.

[Phantom255x]

KAT could potentially be the next dream target if not AD, but in a few years from now. Definitely not next season even if MIN has a bad season. Other than that, it's hard to tell. None of those guys seem realistic at this point and we don't have the cap space in the foreseeable future for a max-signing (unless like a bunch of guys opt-out and leave including Horford this offseason).

[PhoSita]

Karl Anthony Towns?! He doesn't belong on this list right now.

I agree that he's not currently at that level, but he has the talent to reach that level, I think.  His raw numbers are already very good, it's a question of whether he can translate that into taking control of the game and leading his team on a regular basis.

Well by that logic we could trey young, or tatum, or heck, even whipping boy Ben Simmons. I think we have enough evidence at this point that Towns is more unlikely to reach that level than he is. It is definitely possible, I just don't think he is viewed on that same level by most GMs any more after being in the league for 4 years and not making any marked improvements on his team's wins.

I guess you're more down on towns than I am.

Don't get me wrong I have skepticism about him.  Seems like his team should be better. But we could say many of the same things about Davis.

I don't think Trae young or Ben Simmons will ever be at that level.


I'm interested to hear which players other people think belong on the list or shouldnt be on the list.



I do think that the odds are probably better if the goal is to acquire a player who hasn't yet realized his potential and then later achieves elite status on the Celtics, as opposed to adding a guy who is already at that level and is still in his prime.

Most of the time when MVP guys become available they are toward the end of their prime, this summer being an exception.

Well I don't think Lebron belongs on the list either. he may not even make all NBA 3rd team, and is 36 next season. I think he can still be a great player and get 25, 8, 5, but if he is putting up those numbers, he is playing crap defense. He also really needs to have his minutes monitored unlike anyone on this list besides Embid.  I don't really think anyone can think of players bouncing back to NBA MVPs at age 37 or age 38 etc. The oldest NBA MVPs in history were 35 I believe (Jordan, Malone). Given how much faster the pace is today and how much more complicated some of the schemes are, I don't think we will ever see an MVP at that age again.

Right, I agree. He's on there because he's one of the players currently at that level.

I wouldn't try to sign Curry or Harden at age 34 either.


The point here is, the list of options is really short after Davis and we probably will have to wait a few years.

[PhoSita]

The Celtics currently have an MVP caliber type of player in Kyrie Irving. I understand he has struggled the past few games and everyone is dragging his name through the mud. However, he is still a great player. This season, he averaged a career high in rebounds and assists to go along with 24 ppg. If he makes a slight adjustment to accepting contact, and not avoiding it, he could potentially add another 3 trips to the free throw line for an additional 6 points. He needs to figure out how he can get those superstar calls, where he starts to get around 8 free throw attempts per game consistently.

But I do agree, Danny needs to go after Anthony Davis. I feel like the potential to trade for Davis has kept Danny from making any moves these past two seasons, as far as making trades to help improve the team. My dream scenario is to re-sign Irving and trade for Davis. I just want the Davis saga over with.

Irving isn't on that level for me.

He's not a leader.

His offense doesn't really make things easier for teammates because his main skill is hitting bad shots with relatively high efficiency.  He doesn't really bend an opponents defense because he's going to take the kinds of shots the other team wants him to take. He doesn't pressure an opponent inside or get anybody in foul trouble.

On the defensive end he's neutral at best, and often a negative.

[celticsclay]

Karl Anthony Towns?! He doesn't belong on this list right now.

I agree that he's not currently at that level, but he has the talent to reach that level, I think.  His raw numbers are already very good, it's a question of whether he can translate that into taking control of the game and leading his team on a regular basis.

Well by that logic we could trey young, or tatum, or heck, even whipping boy Ben Simmons. I think we have enough evidence at this point that Towns is more unlikely to reach that level than he is. It is definitely possible, I just don't think he is viewed on that same level by most GMs any more after being in the league for 4 years and not making any marked improvements on his team's wins.

I guess you're more down on towns than I am.

Don't get me wrong I have skepticism about him.  Seems like his team should be better. But we could say many of the same things about Davis.

I don't think Trae young or Ben Simmons will ever be at that level.


I'm interested to hear which players other people think belong on the list or shouldnt be on the list.



I do think that the odds are probably better if the goal is to acquire a player who hasn't yet realized his potential and then later achieves elite status on the Celtics, as opposed to adding a guy who is already at that level and is still in his prime.

Most of the time when MVP guys become available they are toward the end of their prime, this summer being an exception.

Well I don't think Lebron belongs on the list either. he may not even make all NBA 3rd team, and is 36 next season. I think he can still be a great player and get 25, 8, 5, but if he is putting up those numbers, he is playing crap defense. He also really needs to have his minutes monitored unlike anyone on this list besides Embid.  I don't really think anyone can think of players bouncing back to NBA MVPs at age 37 or age 38 etc. The oldest NBA MVPs in history were 35 I believe (Jordan, Malone). Given how much faster the pace is today and how much more complicated some of the schemes are, I don't think we will ever see an MVP at that age again.

Right, I agree. He's on there because he's one of the players currently at that level.

I wouldn't try to sign Curry or Harden at age 34 either.


The point here is, the list of options is really short after Davis and we probably will have to wait a few years.

I am actually interested in what Harden looks like at 34, I feel like he already moves at the speed of a 34 year old. Maybe that means he will be terrible, but maybe it means he will be still very very good.

[Chris22]

Danny got three allstar players none of whom could bring us a championship.

I think that was a mistake. But if we can get AD, then maybe the mistake can be corrected.