CelticsStrong
Around the League => The Draft => Topic started by: Phantom255x on June 20, 2018, 03:05:57 PM
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https://twitter.com/ryenarussillo/status/1009452550100156416?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
Russillo
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@ryenarussillo
Can never tell if teams are really trying to move up or everyone just calls each other to see what the action is. However, two teams that I’m hearing are the most aggressive to get in the top 10, Clippers and Celtics.
Do I think they will? Nope. Sounds like smokescreen.
That said, the Clippers are really (and understandably) interested in Kawhi Leonard. Do you think the C's might play the 3rd team in a Spurs-Clippers trade, with Morris, Rozier, #27 and a future non-Kings/Grizzlies Pick going out and getting back #12 and/or #13 from the Clippers. Maybe then using the pick(s) to trade up a little more and hopefully nab Carter? Idk, just being a little creative.
Anyways, I think our best chance at trading up into Top-10 will be with Orlando. I don't think the C's brass likes what they project coming from the 2019 Draft, and they'd probably dangle Rozier + #27 + Kings Pick + Yabusele + Another non-Grizzlies Pick FOR #6. Orlando could consider it (good PG prospect, two future picks including one really good one, and another prospect in Yabu). Don't think they'd accept but honestly I'm not sure if any other team between 7-10 is a "good fit" in terms of trading partners with the C's. Maybe NYK?
My dream is one of Carter/Porter/JJJ (the first two could be there in the 6-10 range, not Jackson though who is likely a Top-4 pick now). Otherwise, I'm fine staying at #27 OR making a small trade up for DiVincenzo, Wagner or Spellman. Trading down for an early 2nd + future pick OR player is another option I wouldn't mind if someone falls maybe (or Ainge actually isn't high on the guys projected around #27).
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I think it depends on how highly the Magic view Trae Young. If they love him and he's available (which he will be b/c he isn't a Top-5 projected pick), they may simply take him. Otherwise, if they also feel it's a huge risk to take Porter, maybe they'd do that trade.
I saw a report that said ORL will try to trade up and maybe move from #6 to #4 (MEM). Could get them Doncic although we also now know that Atlanta will likely take Doncic at #3 if he falls there.
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I would love to move up to 16 to get Divincinzo.
If they can't stay put and grab the best available..I would prefer at 27 Allen, Wagner or Thomas. No thanks to Spellman (think he is going to be a massive bust) Evans, Brown or Okogie.
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I would love to move up to 16 to get Divincinzo.
If they can't stay put and grab the best available..I would prefer at 27 Allen, Wagner or Thomas. No thanks to Spellman (think he is going to be a massive bust) Evans, Brown or Okogie.
same. I'm open to cash in a future pick or even rozier to move up to get donte
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I would love to move up to 16 to get Divincinzo.
If they can't stay put and grab the best available..I would prefer at 27 Allen, Wagner or Thomas. No thanks to Spellman (think he is going to be a massive bust) Evans, Brown or Okogie.
Is he really going that high? I figured it's more likely he's taken in the low 20s, or around 18-19 at best (but likely 20+).
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I would love to move up to 16 to get Divincinzo.
If they can't stay put and grab the best available..I would prefer at 27 Allen, Wagner or Thomas. No thanks to Spellman (think he is going to be a massive bust) Evans, Brown or Okogie.
Is he really going that high? I figured it's more likely he's taken in the low 20s, or around 18-19 at best (but likely 20+).
Think he is in the 15-27 range. 16 would be ideal because the Suns have a second pick there and might be willing to move back to 27 as well as some other considerations. I think Divincinzo is going to be a top 10 player in this draft.
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I kinda doubt that Rozier + SAC 19 + LAC 1st + #27 gets you in the top 10 of the draft. Teams with top 10 picks are loathe to give that up for less than established All-Star value. The Bulls had to trade Jimmy Butler and another 1st rounder to get the #7 pick last year.
What are the chances a pick in the 6-10 range yields a player whose production is worth more than Rozier + multiple 1st rounders including the SAC 19 pick?
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I kinda doubt that Rozier + SAC 19 + LAC 1st + #27 gets you in the top 10 of the draft. Teams with top 10 picks are loathe to give that up for less than established All-Star value. The Bulls had to trade Jimmy Butler and another 1st rounder to get the #7 pick last year.
What are the chances a pick in the 6-10 range yields a player whose production is worth more than Rozier + multiple 1st rounders including the SAC 19 pick?
the sac pick has potential to be an all star. I Don't see why the team at pick 10 , where the vonlehs and Doug McDermotts and Austin rivers of the world get picked, wouldn't consider that treasure chest
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I kinda doubt that Rozier + SAC 19 + LAC 1st + #27 gets you in the top 10 of the draft. Teams with top 10 picks are loathe to give that up for less than established All-Star value. The Bulls had to trade Jimmy Butler and another 1st rounder to get the #7 pick last year.
What are the chances a pick in the 6-10 range yields a player whose production is worth more than Rozier + multiple 1st rounders including the SAC 19 pick?
I only give that up if it gets them up to get Doncic. I am not moving all that just to get lower top 10. Make a small move up or stand pat.
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Aren't we always trying to get into the top 10 around this time? When we don't already have a top 10 pick of course.
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I think once you're out of the top Tier of prospects you get those sort of trades. Look at the McDermott trade that Chicago did with Denver for example.
If the Sacramento pick is on the table I think its very possible, if you don't like the 8th prospect of this draft you get another shot next year in the lottery and some extras.
I really don't see it coming together though.
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Aren't we always trying to get into the top 10 around this time? When we don't already have a top 10 pick of course.
It did seem to be a common theme the pre BKN pick years.
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Ainge is just securing potential deals if Doncic falls.
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Doncic falling doesn't lower his value. Even if doncic falls to 10, its still doncic. It doesn't move his value from kyrie level to marcus smart level
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Aren't we always trying to get into the top 10 around this time? When we don't already have a top 10 pick of course.
When we are outside the top 10 we are trying to move into it, when we are in the top 10 we are trying to trade up all the way to #1...and when we are #1, we are trying to trade down.
I think that about covers it.
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Aren't we always trying to get into the top 10 around this time? When we don't already have a top 10 pick of course.
When we are outside the top 10 we are trying to move into it, when we are in the top 10 we are trying to trade up all the way to #1...and when we are #1, we are trying to trade down.
I think that about covers it.
yup. I remember Ainge tried to move up for Royce white, Austin rivers, and justice Winslow
Lol
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Aren't we always trying to get into the top 10 around this time? When we don't already have a top 10 pick of course.
When we are outside the top 10 we are trying to move into it, when we are in the top 10 we are trying to trade up all the way to #1...and when we are #1, we are trying to trade down.
I think that about covers it.
yup. I remember Ainge tried to move up for Royce white, Austin rivers, and justice Winslow
Lol
Thank you MJ for turning down Ainge and his offer of a ton of draft picks for Winslow...
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Ainge does every year...no big story here
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Ayton only one i want and thats not happening
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Ainge does every year...no big story here
It's all we have....
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If this report is true, then I think these players may be Danny's target:
1. Doncic - A premier point forward, who seems like a no brainer in Brad's system.
2. Bamba - An athletic defensive center. This is intriguing as it would allow the Celtics to be less reliant on needing to extend Horford to another high price contract.
3. Porter Jr - He was the consensus #1 pick before his back surgery. If the surgery was successful, he could be another steal for Danny.
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Same bull every year. Danny will low-ball people for draft picks, act surprised that no one wanted to trade, and nothing.
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Would love to move up high enough for either Porter, Bamba or Carter at 6, 7 or 8. If the "aggressively" rumor is true, I'd say do it.
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for who? :o
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for who? :o
For the next Kelly Olynyk
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I would certainly love to snag Bamba, but at what cost? that is a lotta trading up to get in that range...
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for who? :o
For the next Kelly Olynyk
People look at that the wrong way, you should only judge that pick based on the trade. Did Ainge win that Mavs trade or not? If he did then people need to stop crying over the spilt Giannis, if he didn't, then you should be talking about the Mavs winning the trade (BTW, had we stood pat Giannis would have been gone anyway).
Anyway, KO was a good pick at 13. If Danny had to relinquish everything he did that day to get us another KO for our team now, I'd bet he'd do it in a heartbeat. He gave up nothing for a solid player.
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If we could get Carter with Rozier, our 1st, and the Kings pick, I would do it.
I think the most likely outcome for the Sacto pick is 7-12 next year.
Why not get a comparable pick this year at a position of need? His floor seems pretty high - already has an NBA-ready body and some perimeter game, high BBIQ, willing defender. He might plug in for 10-15 minutes right away and be ready to replace Al in 2 years when (if we are lucky) Jaylen will have earned a fat contract.
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If we could get Carter with Rozier, our 1st, and the Kings pick, I would do it.
I think the most likely outcome for the Sacto pick is 7-12 next year.
Why not get a comparable pick this year at a position of need? His floor seems pretty high - already has an NBA-ready body and some perimeter game, high BBIQ, willing defender. He might plug in for 10-15 minutes right away and be ready to replace Al in 2 years when (if we are lucky) Jaylen will have earned a fat contract.
Whoa, I’m a huge Wendell Carter fan, but the Kings pick is a bridge too far. I think the Memphis pick is also too much. The highest I’d go is Rozier, #27, and next year’s 1st with top-4 protection.
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If we could get Carter with Rozier, our 1st, and the Kings pick, I would do it.
I think the most likely outcome for the Sacto pick is 7-12 next year.
Why not get a comparable pick this year at a position of need? His floor seems pretty high - already has an NBA-ready body and some perimeter game, high BBIQ, willing defender. He might plug in for 10-15 minutes right away and be ready to replace Al in 2 years when (if we are lucky) Jaylen will have earned a fat contract.
Whoa, I’m a huge Wendell Carter fan, but the Kings pick is a bridge too far. I think the Memphis pick is also too much. The highest I’d go is Rozier, #27, and next year’s 1st with top-4 protection.
Not a chance the Sacramento pick isn't in play. It's the first of a few assets heading out if DA trades that far up.
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for who? :o
For the next Kelly Olynyk
ugh..great .....now Ill have nightmares
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Ainge does every year...no big story here
It's all we have....
worth a TP :D
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If we could get Carter with Rozier, our 1st, and the Kings pick, I would do it.
I think the most likely outcome for the Sacto pick is 7-12 next year.
Why not get a comparable pick this year at a position of need? His floor seems pretty high - already has an NBA-ready body and some perimeter game, high BBIQ, willing defender. He might plug in for 10-15 minutes right away and be ready to replace Al in 2 years when (if we are lucky) Jaylen will have earned a fat contract.
Whoa, I’m a huge Wendell Carter fan, but the Kings pick is a bridge too far. I think the Memphis pick is also too much. The highest I’d go is Rozier, #27, and next year’s 1st with top-4 protection.
Not a chance the Sacramento pick isn't in play. It's the first of a few assets heading out if DA trades that far up.
Shouldn’t be with Rozier and this year’s pick already included, at least not for anything outside the top 5, which is where Carter projects to.
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If we could get Carter with Rozier, our 1st, and the Kings pick, I would do it.
I think the most likely outcome for the Sacto pick is 7-12 next year.
Why not get a comparable pick this year at a position of need? His floor seems pretty high - already has an NBA-ready body and some perimeter game, high BBIQ, willing defender. He might plug in for 10-15 minutes right away and be ready to replace Al in 2 years when (if we are lucky) Jaylen will have earned a fat contract.
Whoa, I’m a huge Wendell Carter fan, but the Kings pick is a bridge too far. I think the Memphis pick is also too much. The highest I’d go is Rozier, #27, and next year’s 1st with top-4 protection.
Not a chance the Sacramento pick isn't in play. It's the first of a few assets heading out if DA trades that far up.
Shouldn’t be with Rozier and this year’s pick already included, at least not for anything outside the top 5, which is where Carter projects to.
Are we allowed to add some more protections to the Kings Pick, like we give them that pick and make it protected 2-5 for US? Otherwise, I don't see a team like Orlando doing it unless the Kings Pick is included to be honest, or at least one of the Kings/Grizzlies Picks.
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If we could get Carter with Rozier, our 1st, and the Kings pick, I would do it.
I think the most likely outcome for the Sacto pick is 7-12 next year.
Why not get a comparable pick this year at a position of need? His floor seems pretty high - already has an NBA-ready body and some perimeter game, high BBIQ, willing defender. He might plug in for 10-15 minutes right away and be ready to replace Al in 2 years when (if we are lucky) Jaylen will have earned a fat contract.
Whoa, I’m a huge Wendell Carter fan, but the Kings pick is a bridge too far. I think the Memphis pick is also too much. The highest I’d go is Rozier, #27, and next year’s 1st with top-4 protection.
Not a chance the Sacramento pick isn't in play. It's the first of a few assets heading out if DA trades that far up.
Shouldn’t be with Rozier and this year’s pick already included, at least not for anything outside the top 5, which is where Carter projects to.
Are we allowed to add some more protections to the Kings Pick, like we give them that pick and make it protected 2-5 for US? Otherwise, I don't see a team like Orlando doing it unless the Kings Pick is included to be honest, or at least one of the Kings/Grizzlies Picks.
Nope, as already answered earlier today in the Luka Doncic thread. :)
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Same bull every year. Danny will low-ball people for draft picks, act surprised that no one wanted to trade, and nothing.
After which, he will tell us how close he was to a huge trade that nobody had speculated about, but it fell apart at the last minute.
Mike
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If we could get Carter with Rozier, our 1st, and the Kings pick, I would do it.
I think the most likely outcome for the Sacto pick is 7-12 next year.
Why not get a comparable pick this year at a position of need? His floor seems pretty high - already has an NBA-ready body and some perimeter game, high BBIQ, willing defender. He might plug in for 10-15 minutes right away and be ready to replace Al in 2 years when (if we are lucky) Jaylen will have earned a fat contract.
Whoa, I’m a huge Wendell Carter fan, but the Kings pick is a bridge too far. I think the Memphis pick is also too much. The highest I’d go is Rozier, #27, and next year’s 1st with top-4 protection.
Not a chance the Sacramento pick isn't in play. It's the first of a few assets heading out if DA trades that far up.
Shouldn’t be with Rozier and this year’s pick already included, at least not for anything outside the top 5, which is where Carter projects to.
Are we allowed to add some more protections to the Kings Pick, like we give them that pick and make it protected 2-5 for US? Otherwise, I don't see a team like Orlando doing it unless the Kings Pick is included to be honest, or at least one of the Kings/Grizzlies Picks.
Nope, as already answered earlier today in the Luka Doncic thread. :)
Ah okay, thanks. And I never checked that thread today so didn't know
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If we could get Carter with Rozier, our 1st, and the Kings pick, I would do it.
I think the most likely outcome for the Sacto pick is 7-12 next year.
Why not get a comparable pick this year at a position of need? His floor seems pretty high - already has an NBA-ready body and some perimeter game, high BBIQ, willing defender. He might plug in for 10-15 minutes right away and be ready to replace Al in 2 years when (if we are lucky) Jaylen will have earned a fat contract.
Whoa, I’m a huge Wendell Carter fan, but the Kings pick is a bridge too far. I think the Memphis pick is also too much. The highest I’d go is Rozier, #27, and next year’s 1st with top-4 protection.
Not a chance the Sacramento pick isn't in play. It's the first of a few assets heading out if DA trades that far up.
Shouldn’t be with Rozier and this year’s pick already included, at least not for anything outside the top 5, which is where Carter projects to.
The Sac pick is going if DA trades up in the 6-8 range. Otherwise, the other team will not do a deal. It wouldn't be worth it. If DA's player(s) slides that far then he'll deal the Sac pick + 27 and a player (not Rozier). If you know Danny you know he will for a player he really likes.
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If we could get Carter with Rozier, our 1st, and the Kings pick, I would do it.
I think the most likely outcome for the Sacto pick is 7-12 next year.
Why not get a comparable pick this year at a position of need? His floor seems pretty high - already has an NBA-ready body and some perimeter game, high BBIQ, willing defender. He might plug in for 10-15 minutes right away and be ready to replace Al in 2 years when (if we are lucky) Jaylen will have earned a fat contract.
Whoa, I’m a huge Wendell Carter fan, but the Kings pick is a bridge too far. I think the Memphis pick is also too much. The highest I’d go is Rozier, #27, and next year’s 1st with top-4 protection.
Not a chance the Sacramento pick isn't in play. It's the first of a few assets heading out if DA trades that far up.
Shouldn’t be with Rozier and this year’s pick already included, at least not for anything outside the top 5, which is where Carter projects to.
Are we allowed to add some more protections to the Kings Pick, like we give them that pick and make it protected 2-5 for US? Otherwise, I don't see a team like Orlando doing it unless the Kings Pick is included to be honest, or at least one of the Kings/Grizzlies Picks.
Nope, as already answered earlier today in the Luka Doncic thread. :)
Ah okay, thanks. And I never checked that thread today so didn't know
I think people are overvaluing the Sacramento pick. If they hadn’t won the lottery this year, they would’ve picked what, 7th? While they might win the lottery again or decline, I don’t know why we would expect that. They’re adding the second pick, and they have no incentive to tank. If they win even a few more games they could be 10th or 12th.
To me, Getting the seventh pick this year as a sure thing, and getting a guy we need, is pretty good value compared to the uncertainty of the Sacramento pic. The other thing that will make this pic hard to use, which I don’t think people are fully taking into account is the downside risk of Sacramento actually wins the lottery. A general manager who turns this year’s seven pick into next years 25th or 26th is going to have some explaining to do. I am not sure what kind of protection we can offer – probably it would need to be an additional pick.
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It makes sense. The Celtics need a big, this draft has a ton of bigs and next years draft doesn't and is reportedly not looking very good. If they can trade Rozier, #27 and one of the Clipper/Memphis picks for a big in the top ten, I would do that.
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I do not see us wasting assets to move up unless its a PF/C.
Right?
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I do not see us wasting assets to move up unless its a PF/C.
Right?
I mean, that's literally the point. If they aren't high on next year's Draft (which it doesn't seem they are) and someone like Carter (PF/C) is available in the 6-10 range, they will probably at least try to make a trade and an offer. Otherwise, they'll probably just keep #27 and pick there OR a small trade up/down.
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If we could get Carter with Rozier, our 1st, and the Kings pick, I would do it.
I think the most likely outcome for the Sacto pick is 7-12 next year.
Why not get a comparable pick this year at a position of need? His floor seems pretty high - already has an NBA-ready body and some perimeter game, high BBIQ, willing defender. He might plug in for 10-15 minutes right away and be ready to replace Al in 2 years when (if we are lucky) Jaylen will have earned a fat contract.
Whoa, I’m a huge Wendell Carter fan, but the Kings pick is a bridge too far. I think the Memphis pick is also too much. The highest I’d go is Rozier, #27, and next year’s 1st with top-4 protection.
Not a chance the Sacramento pick isn't in play. It's the first of a few assets heading out if DA trades that far up.
Shouldn’t be with Rozier and this year’s pick already included, at least not for anything outside the top 5, which is where Carter projects to.
Are we allowed to add some more protections to the Kings Pick, like we give them that pick and make it protected 2-5 for US? Otherwise, I don't see a team like Orlando doing it unless the Kings Pick is included to be honest, or at least one of the Kings/Grizzlies Picks.
Nope, as already answered earlier today in the Luka Doncic thread. :)
Ah okay, thanks. And I never checked that thread today so didn't know
I think people are overvaluing the Sacramento pick. If they hadn’t won the lottery this year, they would’ve picked what, 7th? While they might win the lottery again or decline, I don’t know we would expect that. They’re adding the second pick, and they have no incentive to tank. If they win even a few more games they could be 10th or 12th.
To me, Getting the seventh pick this year as a sure thing, and getting a guy we need, is pretty good value compared to the uncertainty of the Sacramento pic. The other thing that will make this pic hard to use, which I don’t think people are fully taking into account is the downside risk of Sacramento actually wins the lottery. A general manager who turns this year’s seven pick into next years 25th or 26th is going to have some explaining to do. I am not sure what kind of protection we can offer – probably it would need to be an additional pick.
More than usual this past season there seems like there was a big cluster of bad teams at the bottom of the league. The Kings only finished 6 games behind the worst team in the league, the Suns. I wouldn’t be surprised if some of those teams like the Suns (with a healthy Booker), the Grizzlies (a healthy Conley), the Mavs, and Bulls leapfrog them. The Kings aren’t really much different than the Hawks and Magic so anything can happen. Also some of the vets that helped like Zach Randolph might move on to better teams.
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Lol @ this report:
Among the other teams that have looked into trading up are the Sixers, Cavs, Bulls and Celtics, who might have to give up top rookie Jayson Tatum for a top-five pick, which is a non-starter for Boston.
http://www.sportingnews.com/nba/news/nba-draft-trade-rumors-2018-order-predictions-projections-clippers-raptors-warriors-second-round-picks/bfhgp786zacv113q18fxfbdb6?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
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If we could get Carter with Rozier, our 1st, and the Kings pick, I would do it.
I think the most likely outcome for the Sacto pick is 7-12 next year.
Why not get a comparable pick this year at a position of need? His floor seems pretty high - already has an NBA-ready body and some perimeter game, high BBIQ, willing defender. He might plug in for 10-15 minutes right away and be ready to replace Al in 2 years when (if we are lucky) Jaylen will have earned a fat contract.
Whoa, I’m a huge Wendell Carter fan, but the Kings pick is a bridge too far. I think the Memphis pick is also too much. The highest I’d go is Rozier, #27, and next year’s 1st with top-4 protection.
Not a chance the Sacramento pick isn't in play. It's the first of a few assets heading out if DA trades that far up.
Shouldn’t be with Rozier and this year’s pick already included, at least not for anything outside the top 5, which is where Carter projects to.
Are we allowed to add some more protections to the Kings Pick, like we give them that pick and make it protected 2-5 for US? Otherwise, I don't see a team like Orlando doing it unless the Kings Pick is included to be honest, or at least one of the Kings/Grizzlies Picks.
Nope, as already answered earlier today in the Luka Doncic thread. :)
Ah okay, thanks. And I never checked that thread today so didn't know
I think people are overvaluing the Sacramento pick. If they hadn’t won the lottery this year, they would’ve picked what, 7th? While they might win the lottery again or decline, I don’t know we would expect that. They’re adding the second pick, and they have no incentive to tank. If they win even a few more games they could be 10th or 12th.
To me, Getting the seventh pick this year as a sure thing, and getting a guy we need, is pretty good value compared to the uncertainty of the Sacramento pic. The other thing that will make this pic hard to use, which I don’t think people are fully taking into account is the downside risk of Sacramento actually wins the lottery. A general manager who turns this year’s seven pick into next years 25th or 26th is going to have some explaining to do. I am not sure what kind of protection we can offer – probably it would need to be an additional pick.
More than usual this past season there seems like there was a big cluster of bad teams at the bottom of the league. The Kings only finished 6 games behind the worst team in the league, the Suns. I wouldn’t be surprised if some of those teams like the Suns (with a healthy Booker), the Grizzlies (a healthy Conley), the Mavs, and Bulls leapfrog them. The Kings aren’t really much different than the Hawks and Magic so anything can happen. Also some of the vets that helped like Zach Randolph might move on to better teams.
The other thing people forget is that this years team was lycky. By next rating they were bottom 3, they won close,games at a huge rate relative to talent. Not a trend that likely to continue next year. If they more or less stand pat that will regress and they will be bad. As for their puck, im not worried. No rookie this year is adding a big boost to winning.
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If we could get Carter with Rozier, our 1st, and the Kings pick, I would do it.
I think the most likely outcome for the Sacto pick is 7-12 next year.
Why not get a comparable pick this year at a position of need? His floor seems pretty high - already has an NBA-ready body and some perimeter game, high BBIQ, willing defender. He might plug in for 10-15 minutes right away and be ready to replace Al in 2 years when (if we are lucky) Jaylen will have earned a fat contract.
Whoa, I’m a huge Wendell Carter fan, but the Kings pick is a bridge too far. I think the Memphis pick is also too much. The highest I’d go is Rozier, #27, and next year’s 1st with top-4 protection.
Not a chance the Sacramento pick isn't in play. It's the first of a few assets heading out if DA trades that far up.
Shouldn’t be with Rozier and this year’s pick already included, at least not for anything outside the top 5, which is where Carter projects to.
Are we allowed to add some more protections to the Kings Pick, like we give them that pick and make it protected 2-5 for US? Otherwise, I don't see a team like Orlando doing it unless the Kings Pick is included to be honest, or at least one of the Kings/Grizzlies Picks.
Nope, as already answered earlier today in the Luka Doncic thread. :)
Ah okay, thanks. And I never checked that thread today so didn't know
I think people are overvaluing the Sacramento pick. If they hadn’t won the lottery this year, they would’ve picked what, 7th? While they might win the lottery again or decline, I don’t know we would expect that. They’re adding the second pick, and they have no incentive to tank. If they win even a few more games they could be 10th or 12th.
To me, Getting the seventh pick this year as a sure thing, and getting a guy we need, is pretty good value compared to the uncertainty of the Sacramento pic. The other thing that will make this pic hard to use, which I don’t think people are fully taking into account is the downside risk of Sacramento actually wins the lottery. A general manager who turns this year’s seven pick into next years 25th or 26th is going to have some explaining to do. I am not sure what kind of protection we can offer – probably it would need to be an additional pick.
I really think you’re overrating Sacramento, and/or not fully considering the lottery changes going into next year. They were 7th (well, tied for 6tb with Chicago), but they were 8 games out of 10th, which would have been 30% more wins. They’re very unlikely to get to the mid-30s in win totals even with no incentive to lose. They simply don’t have the talent. Furthermore, they had the 2nd-worst expected winning percentage based on point differential, and won 4 games more than expected by this measurement. Sure, they could do that again, but more likely than not they’ll finish closer to their actual expected record. This means that actual on-court improvement might not show up in the win column.
Secondly, with flattened lottery odds, teams will have a little less incentive to tank (they will still do so, but maybe not quite as blatantly, except perhaps with an 8th/9th place conference finish tradeoff in the East).
Given that, I think it’s borderline impossible the Kings will have any worse than the 9th lottery odds, and there’s considerable upside from that point. At the 9th odds, the pick has a 16% chance to be 2-4, a 51% chance to be 9, a 26% chance to be 10, and a small chance to be worse (with most of those odds coming from Philly winning #1 overall). That 2-4 odds is better than the odds we had if the Lakers had finished 6th this year.
So conservatively we have a 1/6 chance of getting a top 4 pick, with the most likely outcome in the second-third of the lottery. But it’s not that aggressive an assumption to say the Kings improve a little on the court, but their luck reverts to the mean, and they finish with the 6th-worst record. This brings a 28% chance at a 2-4 pick and a 59% chance at a 6-8 pick.
And then there’s always the chance the bottom drops out. The Kings, again, had the 2nd-worst expected record last year, luckily won four extra games, AND were pretty healthy. A number of their top players (Bogdan, WCS, Hield, Fox, Koufos) played at least 70 games. Randolph played only 59, but at 36 that seems like a reasonable amount anyway. Garrett Temple only played 65, but he’s also on the other side of 30. So they could get more unlucky with injuries and see reduced performance, or unlucky with wins and see a reduced total. Or both. Honestly, I think the Kings are far more likely to be a bottom 5 team than they are 9th. That’s not my green glasses, or my hatred of the Kings talking. They just profile more like the 2015-2016 Nets more than they do the 2017-2018 Lakers.
That pick has too much upside, and it’s most likely floor is 10. Adding that to Rozier and this year’s pick to move up to the 6-9 range is just too much.
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Same bull every year. Danny will low-ball people for draft picks, act surprised that no one wanted to trade, and nothing.
After which, he will tell us how close he was to a huge trade that nobody had speculated about, but it fell apart at the last minute.
Mike
(https://media.giphy.com/media/Ou18ZgE49Fss0/giphy.gif)
;D
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Lol @ this report:
Among the other teams that have looked into trading up are the Sixers, Cavs, Bulls and Celtics, who might have to give up top rookie Jayson Tatum for a top-five pick, which is a non-starter for Boston.
http://www.sportingnews.com/nba/news/nba-draft-trade-rumors-2018-order-predictions-projections-clippers-raptors-warriors-second-round-picks/bfhgp786zacv113q18fxfbdb6?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
I read alot of message boards of opposing teams. All of them ( like spurs ) want Ainge to somehow trade them Tatum for their disgruntled players. Cavs fans wanted Tatum badly for kyrie and now spurs fans think negotiations begin at tatum+ picks. Ultra delusion. All these other guys were on the couch having to bear watching Tatum dunk on lebron and swish that 3 lol
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I would love to move up to 16 to get Divincinzo.
If they can't stay put and grab the best available..I would prefer at 27 Allen, Wagner or Thomas. No thanks to Spellman (think he is going to be a massive bust) Evans, Brown or Okogie.
Is he really going that high? I figured it's more likely he's taken in the low 20s, or around 18-19 at best (but likely 20+).
Think he is in the 15-27 range. 16 would be ideal because the Suns have a second pick there and might be willing to move back to 27 as well as some other considerations. I think Divincinzo is going to be a top 10 player in this draft.
Why are you so high on him?
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Sacramento pick will be a top 5 pick.
I am not moving that pick plus other assets for a non-top 5 pick in this year's draft.
Everybody seems to have a hardon for that 'next' drafted player. Why can't you wait for next year when you will be picking in the same range without giving up a thing.
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If we could get Carter with Rozier, our 1st, and the Kings pick, I would do it.
I think the most likely outcome for the Sacto pick is 7-12 next year.
Why not get a comparable pick this year at a position of need? His floor seems pretty high - already has an NBA-ready body and some perimeter game, high BBIQ, willing defender. He might plug in for 10-15 minutes right away and be ready to replace Al in 2 years when (if we are lucky) Jaylen will have earned a fat contract.
Whoa, I’m a huge Wendell Carter fan, but the Kings pick is a bridge too far. I think the Memphis pick is also too much. The highest I’d go is Rozier, #27, and next year’s 1st with top-4 protection.
Not a chance the Sacramento pick isn't in play. It's the first of a few assets heading out if DA trades that far up.
Shouldn’t be with Rozier and this year’s pick already included, at least not for anything outside the top 5, which is where Carter projects to.
Are we allowed to add some more protections to the Kings Pick, like we give them that pick and make it protected 2-5 for US? Otherwise, I don't see a team like Orlando doing it unless the Kings Pick is included to be honest, or at least one of the Kings/Grizzlies Picks.
Nope, as already answered earlier today in the Luka Doncic thread. :)
Ah okay, thanks. And I never checked that thread today so didn't know
I think people are overvaluing the Sacramento pick. If they hadn’t won the lottery this year, they would’ve picked what, 7th? While they might win the lottery again or decline, I don’t know we would expect that. They’re adding the second pick, and they have no incentive to tank. If they win even a few more games they could be 10th or 12th.
To me, Getting the seventh pick this year as a sure thing, and getting a guy we need, is pretty good value compared to the uncertainty of the Sacramento pic. The other thing that will make this pic hard to use, which I don’t think people are fully taking into account is the downside risk of Sacramento actually wins the lottery. A general manager who turns this year’s seven pick into next years 25th or 26th is going to have some explaining to do. I am not sure what kind of protection we can offer – probably it would need to be an additional pick.
More than usual this past season there seems like there was a big cluster of bad teams at the bottom of the league. The Kings only finished 6 games behind the worst team in the league, the Suns. I wouldn’t be surprised if some of those teams like the Suns (with a healthy Booker), the Grizzlies (a healthy Conley), the Mavs, and Bulls leapfrog them. The Kings aren’t really much different than the Hawks and Magic so anything can happen. Also some of the vets that helped like Zach Randolph might move on to better teams.
The other thing people forget is that this years team was lycky. By next rating they were bottom 3, they won close,games at a huge rate relative to talent. Not a trend that likely to continue next year. If they more or less stand pat that will regress and they will be bad. As for their puck, im not worried. No rookie this year is adding a big boost to winning.
The Kings had an incentive to lose this season. Next season they don't. They may be bottom 5 going into the all-star game but then the other bad teams are going to start tanking. There is also the issue of the pick being #1 protected.
Let's say the Kings finish 5th worst record next season. The lottery odds break down as:
#1 pick: 10.5% reverts to Sixers pick likely to be mid 20s
#2-#5 pick: 31.6%
#6-#9 pick: 57.9%
That's just not that valuable of a pick at this point especially since everyone continues to say that next year's draft class doesn't look good at this point.
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If we could get Carter with Rozier, our 1st, and the Kings pick, I would do it.
I think the most likely outcome for the Sacto pick is 7-12 next year.
Why not get a comparable pick this year at a position of need? His floor seems pretty high - already has an NBA-ready body and some perimeter game, high BBIQ, willing defender. He might plug in for 10-15 minutes right away and be ready to replace Al in 2 years when (if we are lucky) Jaylen will have earned a fat contract.
Whoa, I’m a huge Wendell Carter fan, but the Kings pick is a bridge too far. I think the Memphis pick is also too much. The highest I’d go is Rozier, #27, and next year’s 1st with top-4 protection.
Not a chance the Sacramento pick isn't in play. It's the first of a few assets heading out if DA trades that far up.
Shouldn’t be with Rozier and this year’s pick already included, at least not for anything outside the top 5, which is where Carter projects to.
Are we allowed to add some more protections to the Kings Pick, like we give them that pick and make it protected 2-5 for US? Otherwise, I don't see a team like Orlando doing it unless the Kings Pick is included to be honest, or at least one of the Kings/Grizzlies Picks.
Nope, as already answered earlier today in the Luka Doncic thread. :)
Ah okay, thanks. And I never checked that thread today so didn't know
I think people are overvaluing the Sacramento pick. If they hadn’t won the lottery this year, they would’ve picked what, 7th? While they might win the lottery again or decline, I don’t know we would expect that. They’re adding the second pick, and they have no incentive to tank. If they win even a few more games they could be 10th or 12th.
To me, Getting the seventh pick this year as a sure thing, and getting a guy we need, is pretty good value compared to the uncertainty of the Sacramento pic. The other thing that will make this pic hard to use, which I don’t think people are fully taking into account is the downside risk of Sacramento actually wins the lottery. A general manager who turns this year’s seven pick into next years 25th or 26th is going to have some explaining to do. I am not sure what kind of protection we can offer – probably it would need to be an additional pick.
More than usual this past season there seems like there was a big cluster of bad teams at the bottom of the league. The Kings only finished 6 games behind the worst team in the league, the Suns. I wouldn’t be surprised if some of those teams like the Suns (with a healthy Booker), the Grizzlies (a healthy Conley), the Mavs, and Bulls leapfrog them. The Kings aren’t really much different than the Hawks and Magic so anything can happen. Also some of the vets that helped like Zach Randolph might move on to better teams.
The other thing people forget is that this years team was lycky. By next rating they were bottom 3, they won close,games at a huge rate relative to talent. Not a trend that likely to continue next year. If they more or less stand pat that will regress and they will be bad. As for their puck, im not worried. No rookie this year is adding a big boost to winning.
The Kings had an incentive to lose this season. Next season they don't. They may be bottom 5 going into the all-star game but then the other bad teams are going to start tanking. There is also the issue of the pick being #1 protected.
Let's say the Kings finish 5th worst record next season. The lottery odds break down as:
#1 pick: 10.5% reverts to Sixers pick likely to be mid 20s
#2-#5 pick: 31.6%
#6-#9 pick: 57.9%
That's just not that valuable of a pick at this point especially since everyone continues to say that next year's draft class doesn't look good at this point.
Is the top of next year’s draft really that bad though? Barrett, Reddish, Williamson, and maybe couple others look to have elite talent.
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If we could get Carter with Rozier, our 1st, and the Kings pick, I would do it.
I think the most likely outcome for the Sacto pick is 7-12 next year.
Why not get a comparable pick this year at a position of need? His floor seems pretty high - already has an NBA-ready body and some perimeter game, high BBIQ, willing defender. He might plug in for 10-15 minutes right away and be ready to replace Al in 2 years when (if we are lucky) Jaylen will have earned a fat contract.
Whoa, I’m a huge Wendell Carter fan, but the Kings pick is a bridge too far. I think the Memphis pick is also too much. The highest I’d go is Rozier, #27, and next year’s 1st with top-4 protection.
Not a chance the Sacramento pick isn't in play. It's the first of a few assets heading out if DA trades that far up.
Shouldn’t be with Rozier and this year’s pick already included, at least not for anything outside the top 5, which is where Carter projects to.
Are we allowed to add some more protections to the Kings Pick, like we give them that pick and make it protected 2-5 for US? Otherwise, I don't see a team like Orlando doing it unless the Kings Pick is included to be honest, or at least one of the Kings/Grizzlies Picks.
Nope, as already answered earlier today in the Luka Doncic thread. :)
Ah okay, thanks. And I never checked that thread today so didn't know
I think people are overvaluing the Sacramento pick. If they hadn’t won the lottery this year, they would’ve picked what, 7th? While they might win the lottery again or decline, I don’t know we would expect that. They’re adding the second pick, and they have no incentive to tank. If they win even a few more games they could be 10th or 12th.
To me, Getting the seventh pick this year as a sure thing, and getting a guy we need, is pretty good value compared to the uncertainty of the Sacramento pic. The other thing that will make this pic hard to use, which I don’t think people are fully taking into account is the downside risk of Sacramento actually wins the lottery. A general manager who turns this year’s seven pick into next years 25th or 26th is going to have some explaining to do. I am not sure what kind of protection we can offer – probably it would need to be an additional pick.
I really think you’re overrating Sacramento, and/or not fully considering the lottery changes going into next year. They were 7th (well, tied for 6tb with Chicago), but they were 8 games out of 10th, which would have been 30% more wins. They’re very unlikely to get to the mid-30s in win totals even with no incentive to lose. They simply don’t have the talent. Furthermore, they had the 2nd-worst expected winning percentage based on point differential, and won 4 games more than expected by this measurement. Sure, they could do that again, but more likely than not they’ll finish closer to their actual expected record. This means that actual on-court improvement might not show up in the win column.
Secondly, with flattened lottery odds, teams will have a little less incentive to tank (they will still do so, but maybe not quite as blatantly, except perhaps with an 8th/9th place conference finish tradeoff in the East).
Given that, I think it’s borderline impossible the Kings will have any worse than the 9th lottery odds, and there’s considerable upside from that point. At the 9th odds, the pick has a 16% chance to be 2-4, a 51% chance to be 9, a 26% chance to be 10, and a small chance to be worse (with most of those odds coming from Philly winning #1 overall). That 2-4 odds is better than the odds we had if the Lakers had finished 6th this year.
So conservatively we have a 1/6 chance of getting a top 4 pick, with the most likely outcome in the second-third of the lottery. But it’s not that aggressive an assumption to say the Kings improve a little on the court, but their luck reverts to the mean, and they finish with the 6th-worst record. This brings a 28% chance at a 2-4 pick and a 59% chance at a 6-8 pick.
And then there’s always the chance the bottom drops out. The Kings, again, had the 2nd-worst expected record last year, luckily won four extra games, AND were pretty healthy. A number of their top players (Bogdan, WCS, Hield, Fox, Koufos) played at least 70 games. Randolph played only 59, but at 36 that seems like a reasonable amount anyway. Garrett Temple only played 65, but he’s also on the other side of 30. So they could get more unlucky with injuries and see reduced performance, or unlucky with wins and see a reduced total. Or both. Honestly, I think the Kings are far more likely to be a bottom 5 team than they are 9th. That’s not my green glasses, or my hatred of the Kings talking. They just profile more like the 2015-2016 Nets more than they do the 2017-2018 Lakers.
That pick has too much upside, and it’s most likely floor is 10. Adding that to Rozier and this year’s pick to move up to the 6-9 range is just too much.
Fair points. I see where you’re coming from. I don’t know the Kings well enough to know what they might do. They’re the Kings, they could screw it up. Then again, every now and then even a blind pig finds an acorn. They’re well under the cap, they’re (likely) adding Bagley, and their most talented players have another year of experience.
If the Kings had won two more games this year they’d have finished 9th - which you said gives them a 77% chance to be 9th or 10th, in a draft that (so far) isn’t thought to contain good bigs. Even the most likely outcome in your intermediate scenario is a pick in the 6-8 range (59%). To get Carter this year we’d a trade with Orlando (6) or Chicago (7); using Rozier to eliminate the uncertainty in pick order and in players coming out next year seems reasonable to me for this Celtics team. Getting the player we want, at a position of need, and at the time we want makes sense even if we give some upside possibility. And honestly, if Carter actually reached his ceiling and became Horford we’d be happy no matter where next year’s pick landed. Nobody sees the next LeBron or Davis in next year’s class.
You do convince me we should really try not to add our first - and maybe we can extract a second from them :)
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I anticipate an achingly dull Draft night. We'll all be here tomorrow discussing the awesomeness of Grayson Allen..
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I anticipate an achingly dull Draft night. We'll all be here tomorrow discussing the awesomeness of Grayson Allen..
This seems like the most likely outcome.
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I anticipate an achingly dull Draft night. We'll all be here tomorrow discussing the awesomeness of Grayson Allen..
how is Grayson Allen dull? Hes a beast
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If we could get Carter with Rozier, our 1st, and the Kings pick, I would do it.
I think the most likely outcome for the Sacto pick is 7-12 next year.
Why not get a comparable pick this year at a position of need? His floor seems pretty high - already has an NBA-ready body and some perimeter game, high BBIQ, willing defender. He might plug in for 10-15 minutes right away and be ready to replace Al in 2 years when (if we are lucky) Jaylen will have earned a fat contract.
Whoa, I’m a huge Wendell Carter fan, but the Kings pick is a bridge too far. I think the Memphis pick is also too much. The highest I’d go is Rozier, #27, and next year’s 1st with top-4 protection.
Not a chance the Sacramento pick isn't in play. It's the first of a few assets heading out if DA trades that far up.
Shouldn’t be with Rozier and this year’s pick already included, at least not for anything outside the top 5, which is where Carter projects to.
Are we allowed to add some more protections to the Kings Pick, like we give them that pick and make it protected 2-5 for US? Otherwise, I don't see a team like Orlando doing it unless the Kings Pick is included to be honest, or at least one of the Kings/Grizzlies Picks.
Nope, as already answered earlier today in the Luka Doncic thread. :)
Ah okay, thanks. And I never checked that thread today so didn't know
I think people are overvaluing the Sacramento pick. If they hadn’t won the lottery this year, they would’ve picked what, 7th? While they might win the lottery again or decline, I don’t know we would expect that. They’re adding the second pick, and they have no incentive to tank. If they win even a few more games they could be 10th or 12th.
To me, Getting the seventh pick this year as a sure thing, and getting a guy we need, is pretty good value compared to the uncertainty of the Sacramento pic. The other thing that will make this pic hard to use, which I don’t think people are fully taking into account is the downside risk of Sacramento actually wins the lottery. A general manager who turns this year’s seven pick into next years 25th or 26th is going to have some explaining to do. I am not sure what kind of protection we can offer – probably it would need to be an additional pick.
More than usual this past season there seems like there was a big cluster of bad teams at the bottom of the league. The Kings only finished 6 games behind the worst team in the league, the Suns. I wouldn’t be surprised if some of those teams like the Suns (with a healthy Booker), the Grizzlies (a healthy Conley), the Mavs, and Bulls leapfrog them. The Kings aren’t really much different than the Hawks and Magic so anything can happen. Also some of the vets that helped like Zach Randolph might move on to better teams.
The other thing people forget is that this years team was lycky. By next rating they were bottom 3, they won close,games at a huge rate relative to talent. Not a trend that likely to continue next year. If they more or less stand pat that will regress and they will be bad. As for their puck, im not worried. No rookie this year is adding a big boost to winning.
The Kings had an incentive to lose this season. Next season they don't. They may be bottom 5 going into the all-star game but then the other bad teams are going to start tanking. There is also the issue of the pick being #1 protected.
Let's say the Kings finish 5th worst record next season. The lottery odds break down as:
#1 pick: 10.5% reverts to Sixers pick likely to be mid 20s
#2-#5 pick: 31.6%
#6-#9 pick: 57.9%
That's just not that valuable of a pick at this point especially since everyone continues to say that next year's draft class doesn't look good at this point.
Is the top of next year’s draft really that bad though? Barrett, Reddish, Williamson, and maybe couple others look to have elite talent.
Johnathan Givony (formerly DraftExpress) on yesterday's Lowe Podcast said again that the 2019 class looks weak. At this point, Barrett and Reddish would probably go top 10 in the 2018 draft and maybe Williamson would too.
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If we could get Carter with Rozier, our 1st, and the Kings pick, I would do it.
I think the most likely outcome for the Sacto pick is 7-12 next year.
Why not get a comparable pick this year at a position of need? His floor seems pretty high - already has an NBA-ready body and some perimeter game, high BBIQ, willing defender. He might plug in for 10-15 minutes right away and be ready to replace Al in 2 years when (if we are lucky) Jaylen will have earned a fat contract.
Whoa, I’m a huge Wendell Carter fan, but the Kings pick is a bridge too far. I think the Memphis pick is also too much. The highest I’d go is Rozier, #27, and next year’s 1st with top-4 protection.
Not a chance the Sacramento pick isn't in play. It's the first of a few assets heading out if DA trades that far up.
Shouldn’t be with Rozier and this year’s pick already included, at least not for anything outside the top 5, which is where Carter projects to.
Are we allowed to add some more protections to the Kings Pick, like we give them that pick and make it protected 2-5 for US? Otherwise, I don't see a team like Orlando doing it unless the Kings Pick is included to be honest, or at least one of the Kings/Grizzlies Picks.
Nope, as already answered earlier today in the Luka Doncic thread. :)
Ah okay, thanks. And I never checked that thread today so didn't know
I think people are overvaluing the Sacramento pick. If they hadn’t won the lottery this year, they would’ve picked what, 7th? While they might win the lottery again or decline, I don’t know we would expect that. They’re adding the second pick, and they have no incentive to tank. If they win even a few more games they could be 10th or 12th.
To me, Getting the seventh pick this year as a sure thing, and getting a guy we need, is pretty good value compared to the uncertainty of the Sacramento pic. The other thing that will make this pic hard to use, which I don’t think people are fully taking into account is the downside risk of Sacramento actually wins the lottery. A general manager who turns this year’s seven pick into next years 25th or 26th is going to have some explaining to do. I am not sure what kind of protection we can offer – probably it would need to be an additional pick.
More than usual this past season there seems like there was a big cluster of bad teams at the bottom of the league. The Kings only finished 6 games behind the worst team in the league, the Suns. I wouldn’t be surprised if some of those teams like the Suns (with a healthy Booker), the Grizzlies (a healthy Conley), the Mavs, and Bulls leapfrog them. The Kings aren’t really much different than the Hawks and Magic so anything can happen. Also some of the vets that helped like Zach Randolph might move on to better teams.
The other thing people forget is that this years team was lycky. By next rating they were bottom 3, they won close,games at a huge rate relative to talent. Not a trend that likely to continue next year. If they more or less stand pat that will regress and they will be bad. As for their puck, im not worried. No rookie this year is adding a big boost to winning.
The Kings had an incentive to lose this season. Next season they don't. They may be bottom 5 going into the all-star game but then the other bad teams are going to start tanking. There is also the issue of the pick being #1 protected.
Let's say the Kings finish 5th worst record next season. The lottery odds break down as:
#1 pick: 10.5% reverts to Sixers pick likely to be mid 20s
#2-#5 pick: 31.6%
#6-#9 pick: 57.9%
That's just not that valuable of a pick at this point especially since everyone continues to say that next year's draft class doesn't look good at this point.
The kings will still stink regardless if they have an incentive to tank or not.
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clickbait.
Not going to happen.
Someone's just trying to drive up the value of their own pick but saying Boston is interested in trading up.
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If we could get Carter with Rozier, our 1st, and the Kings pick, I would do it.
I think the most likely outcome for the Sacto pick is 7-12 next year.
Why not get a comparable pick this year at a position of need? His floor seems pretty high - already has an NBA-ready body and some perimeter game, high BBIQ, willing defender. He might plug in for 10-15 minutes right away and be ready to replace Al in 2 years when (if we are lucky) Jaylen will have earned a fat contract.
Whoa, I’m a huge Wendell Carter fan, but the Kings pick is a bridge too far. I think the Memphis pick is also too much. The highest I’d go is Rozier, #27, and next year’s 1st with top-4 protection.
Not a chance the Sacramento pick isn't in play. It's the first of a few assets heading out if DA trades that far up.
Shouldn’t be with Rozier and this year’s pick already included, at least not for anything outside the top 5, which is where Carter projects to.
Are we allowed to add some more protections to the Kings Pick, like we give them that pick and make it protected 2-5 for US? Otherwise, I don't see a team like Orlando doing it unless the Kings Pick is included to be honest, or at least one of the Kings/Grizzlies Picks.
Nope, as already answered earlier today in the Luka Doncic thread. :)
Ah okay, thanks. And I never checked that thread today so didn't know
I think people are overvaluing the Sacramento pick. If they hadn’t won the lottery this year, they would’ve picked what, 7th? While they might win the lottery again or decline, I don’t know we would expect that. They’re adding the second pick, and they have no incentive to tank. If they win even a few more games they could be 10th or 12th.
To me, Getting the seventh pick this year as a sure thing, and getting a guy we need, is pretty good value compared to the uncertainty of the Sacramento pic. The other thing that will make this pic hard to use, which I don’t think people are fully taking into account is the downside risk of Sacramento actually wins the lottery. A general manager who turns this year’s seven pick into next years 25th or 26th is going to have some explaining to do. I am not sure what kind of protection we can offer – probably it would need to be an additional pick.
More than usual this past season there seems like there was a big cluster of bad teams at the bottom of the league. The Kings only finished 6 games behind the worst team in the league, the Suns. I wouldn’t be surprised if some of those teams like the Suns (with a healthy Booker), the Grizzlies (a healthy Conley), the Mavs, and Bulls leapfrog them. The Kings aren’t really much different than the Hawks and Magic so anything can happen. Also some of the vets that helped like Zach Randolph might move on to better teams.
The other thing people forget is that this years team was lycky. By next rating they were bottom 3, they won close,games at a huge rate relative to talent. Not a trend that likely to continue next year. If they more or less stand pat that will regress and they will be bad. As for their puck, im not worried. No rookie this year is adding a big boost to winning.
The Kings had an incentive to lose this season. Next season they don't. They may be bottom 5 going into the all-star game but then the other bad teams are going to start tanking. There is also the issue of the pick being #1 protected.
Let's say the Kings finish 5th worst record next season. The lottery odds break down as:
#1 pick: 10.5% reverts to Sixers pick likely to be mid 20s
#2-#5 pick: 31.6%
#6-#9 pick: 57.9%
That's just not that valuable of a pick at this point especially since everyone continues to say that next year's draft class doesn't look good at this point.
The kings will still stink regardless if they have an incentive to tank or not.
They stunk this year and only finished with the 7th worst record.
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I anticipate an achingly dull Draft night. We'll all be here tomorrow discussing the awesomeness of Grayson Allen..
This seems like the most likely outcome.
I can’t wait!!
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If we could get Carter with Rozier, our 1st, and the Kings pick, I would do it.
I think the most likely outcome for the Sacto pick is 7-12 next year.
Why not get a comparable pick this year at a position of need? His floor seems pretty high - already has an NBA-ready body and some perimeter game, high BBIQ, willing defender. He might plug in for 10-15 minutes right away and be ready to replace Al in 2 years when (if we are lucky) Jaylen will have earned a fat contract.
Whoa, I’m a huge Wendell Carter fan, but the Kings pick is a bridge too far. I think the Memphis pick is also too much. The highest I’d go is Rozier, #27, and next year’s 1st with top-4 protection.
Not a chance the Sacramento pick isn't in play. It's the first of a few assets heading out if DA trades that far up.
Shouldn’t be with Rozier and this year’s pick already included, at least not for anything outside the top 5, which is where Carter projects to.
Are we allowed to add some more protections to the Kings Pick, like we give them that pick and make it protected 2-5 for US? Otherwise, I don't see a team like Orlando doing it unless the Kings Pick is included to be honest, or at least one of the Kings/Grizzlies Picks.
Nope, as already answered earlier today in the Luka Doncic thread. :)
Ah okay, thanks. And I never checked that thread today so didn't know
I think people are overvaluing the Sacramento pick. If they hadn’t won the lottery this year, they would’ve picked what, 7th? While they might win the lottery again or decline, I don’t know we would expect that. They’re adding the second pick, and they have no incentive to tank. If they win even a few more games they could be 10th or 12th.
To me, Getting the seventh pick this year as a sure thing, and getting a guy we need, is pretty good value compared to the uncertainty of the Sacramento pic. The other thing that will make this pic hard to use, which I don’t think people are fully taking into account is the downside risk of Sacramento actually wins the lottery. A general manager who turns this year’s seven pick into next years 25th or 26th is going to have some explaining to do. I am not sure what kind of protection we can offer – probably it would need to be an additional pick.
More than usual this past season there seems like there was a big cluster of bad teams at the bottom of the league. The Kings only finished 6 games behind the worst team in the league, the Suns. I wouldn’t be surprised if some of those teams like the Suns (with a healthy Booker), the Grizzlies (a healthy Conley), the Mavs, and Bulls leapfrog them. The Kings aren’t really much different than the Hawks and Magic so anything can happen. Also some of the vets that helped like Zach Randolph might move on to better teams.
The other thing people forget is that this years team was lycky. By next rating they were bottom 3, they won close,games at a huge rate relative to talent. Not a trend that likely to continue next year. If they more or less stand pat that will regress and they will be bad. As for their puck, im not worried. No rookie this year is adding a big boost to winning.
The Kings had an incentive to lose this season. Next season they don't. They may be bottom 5 going into the all-star game but then the other bad teams are going to start tanking. There is also the issue of the pick being #1 protected.
Let's say the Kings finish 5th worst record next season. The lottery odds break down as:
#1 pick: 10.5% reverts to Sixers pick likely to be mid 20s
#2-#5 pick: 31.6%
#6-#9 pick: 57.9%
That's just not that valuable of a pick at this point especially since everyone continues to say that next year's draft class doesn't look good at this point.
The kings will still stink regardless if they have an incentive to tank or not.
They stunk this year and only finished with the 7th worst record.
2nd in lottery
I like you conveniently forget the whole lottery that actually determines the order
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You know, it really doesn't feel like the Draft is even tomorrow night. Idk, felt like the last week just went by so fast (or maybe the Kawhi rumors kept me that much occupied). Anyways, literally anything can happen tomorrow night that I don't think I'm prepared for it (Blockbuster trades, trades within drafts, surprise players stock rising/falling, etc).
Tomorrow is definitely going to be a hectic day filled with rumors I imagine.
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You know, it really doesn't feel like the Draft is even tomorrow night. Idk, felt like the last week just went by so fast (or maybe the Kawhi rumors kept me that much occupied). Anyways, literally anything can happen tomorrow night that I don't think I'm prepared for it (Blockbuster trades, trades within drafts, surprise players stock rising/falling, etc).
Tomorrow is definitely going to be a hectic day filled with rumors I imagine.
yea it’s crazy to imagine we will have probably 2 new players on our roster tomorrow. It’s gonna be a fun day
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https://twitter.com/ryenarussillo/status/1009452550100156416?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
Russillo
Verified account
@ryenarussillo
Can never tell if teams are really trying to move up or everyone just calls each other to see what the action is. However, two teams that I’m hearing are the most aggressive to get in the top 10, Clippers and Celtics.
Do I think they will? Nope. Sounds like smokescreen.
My dream is one of Carter/Porter/JJJ (the first two could be there in the 6-10 range, not Jackson though who is likely a Top-4 pick now). Otherwise, I'm fine staying at #27 OR making a small trade up for DiVincenzo, Wagner or Spellman. Trading down for an early 2nd + future pick OR player is another option I wouldn't mind if someone falls maybe (or Ainge actually isn't high on the guys projected around #27).
I don't think this is a smoke screen because Kevin O'Connor said he was hearing rumblings about the Celtics wanting to move up in one of the ringers mock drafts. He also tweeted about the Celtics wanting to move up in the lottery. The guy I think the Celtics should get is Jarren Jackson jr. who's stock seems to be falling. I believe the top 5 in some order will be Ayton, Bagley, Doncic, Bamba and either Jackson Jr or Michael Porter jr.
The reason the Celtics are really willing to part with the Sacramento pick is the 2019 draft is supposedly not that good. This year's draft has good bigs.
I believe Ainge will be trying hard to trade up. Hopefully, it's not a Winslow situation all over again
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After some aggression, the Celtics will trade out of the 27th pick and stash a later rounder...because?
They already have a potential championship roster that just needs to stay healthy. I'm gonna stay positive on this whole "potential championship roster thing", I know it brings the entertainment value of this year's draft down a notch, but, it is the purpose...right? Having such a stacked roster you're tryin' to come up with creative ways to...you know...get out of the draft?
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Something like Rozier and 27 for #12 and then #12 and the Grizzlies Pick for like #9 if Wendell Carter (who is the 4th best prospect in this draft in my opinion) falls.
Maybe buy a high second rounder and take a potential back up guard there like Jevon Carter or Jalen Brunson. It’s a deep draft all the way until like pick 40.
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I think it's possible Ainge is after one of those bigs. I doubt it's Bomba. The rumor is Orlando's #6 could be had for Rozier and the Sac pick. Orlando needs a PG, and Rozier is a good fit.
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I will be shocked if Boston makes any kind of move.
Think they draft one of the following:
Okogie
Allen
Bruce Brown
Mo Wagner
Jacob Evans
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I think it's possible Ainge is after one of those bigs. I doubt it's Bomba. The rumor is Orlando's #6 could be had for Rozier and the Sac pick. Orlando needs a PG, and Rozier is a good fit.
So we can't look forward to the Kings' season next year? :(
But if he can get one of Jackson/Doncic/Porter/Bagley/Carter/Bamba with the #6 pick that would be thrilling.
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If we could get Carter with Rozier, our 1st, and the Kings pick, I would do it.
I think the most likely outcome for the Sacto pick is 7-12 next year.
Why not get a comparable pick this year at a position of need? His floor seems pretty high - already has an NBA-ready body and some perimeter game, high BBIQ, willing defender. He might plug in for 10-15 minutes right away and be ready to replace Al in 2 years when (if we are lucky) Jaylen will have earned a fat contract.
Whoa, I’m a huge Wendell Carter fan, but the Kings pick is a bridge too far. I think the Memphis pick is also too much. The highest I’d go is Rozier, #27, and next year’s 1st with top-4 protection.
Not a chance the Sacramento pick isn't in play. It's the first of a few assets heading out if DA trades that far up.
Shouldn’t be with Rozier and this year’s pick already included, at least not for anything outside the top 5, which is where Carter projects to.
Are we allowed to add some more protections to the Kings Pick, like we give them that pick and make it protected 2-5 for US? Otherwise, I don't see a team like Orlando doing it unless the Kings Pick is included to be honest, or at least one of the Kings/Grizzlies Picks.
Nope, as already answered earlier today in the Luka Doncic thread. :)
Ah okay, thanks. And I never checked that thread today so didn't know
I think people are overvaluing the Sacramento pick. If they hadn’t won the lottery this year, they would’ve picked what, 7th? While they might win the lottery again or decline, I don’t know we would expect that. They’re adding the second pick, and they have no incentive to tank. If they win even a few more games they could be 10th or 12th.
To me, Getting the seventh pick this year as a sure thing, and getting a guy we need, is pretty good value compared to the uncertainty of the Sacramento pic. The other thing that will make this pic hard to use, which I don’t think people are fully taking into account is the downside risk of Sacramento actually wins the lottery. A general manager who turns this year’s seven pick into next years 25th or 26th is going to have some explaining to do. I am not sure what kind of protection we can offer – probably it would need to be an additional pick.
I really think you’re overrating Sacramento, and/or not fully considering the lottery changes going into next year. They were 7th (well, tied for 6tb with Chicago), but they were 8 games out of 10th, which would have been 30% more wins. They’re very unlikely to get to the mid-30s in win totals even with no incentive to lose. They simply don’t have the talent. Furthermore, they had the 2nd-worst expected winning percentage based on point differential, and won 4 games more than expected by this measurement. Sure, they could do that again, but more likely than not they’ll finish closer to their actual expected record. This means that actual on-court improvement might not show up in the win column.
Secondly, with flattened lottery odds, teams will have a little less incentive to tank (they will still do so, but maybe not quite as blatantly, except perhaps with an 8th/9th place conference finish tradeoff in the East).
Given that, I think it’s borderline impossible the Kings will have any worse than the 9th lottery odds, and there’s considerable upside from that point. At the 9th odds, the pick has a 16% chance to be 2-4, a 51% chance to be 9, a 26% chance to be 10, and a small chance to be worse (with most of those odds coming from Philly winning #1 overall). That 2-4 odds is better than the odds we had if the Lakers had finished 6th this year.
So conservatively we have a 1/6 chance of getting a top 4 pick, with the most likely outcome in the second-third of the lottery. But it’s not that aggressive an assumption to say the Kings improve a little on the court, but their luck reverts to the mean, and they finish with the 6th-worst record. This brings a 28% chance at a 2-4 pick and a 59% chance at a 6-8 pick.
And then there’s always the chance the bottom drops out. The Kings, again, had the 2nd-worst expected record last year, luckily won four extra games, AND were pretty healthy. A number of their top players (Bogdan, WCS, Hield, Fox, Koufos) played at least 70 games. Randolph played only 59, but at 36 that seems like a reasonable amount anyway. Garrett Temple only played 65, but he’s also on the other side of 30. So they could get more unlucky with injuries and see reduced performance, or unlucky with wins and see a reduced total. Or both. Honestly, I think the Kings are far more likely to be a bottom 5 team than they are 9th. That’s not my green glasses, or my hatred of the Kings talking. They just profile more like the 2015-2016 Nets more than they do the 2017-2018 Lakers.
That pick has too much upside, and it’s most likely floor is 10. Adding that to Rozier and this year’s pick to move up to the 6-9 range is just too much.
I agree with you on where the Sacramento pick could likely land in 2019. What I see differently is the value of that pick. If NBA GMs could draft Zion Williamson or RJ Barrett in this draft, where would they go? I'd say somewhere in the 6-12 range (I'd probably take Porter over either of them). The #3 guy (Reddish? Bol Bol? whoever) easily slides outside of the top 10.
The point is that the 2019 draft is expected to be significantly weaker than the 2018 draft. Trading up into the 6-9 range in this draft could be equivalent in value to trading into the top 3 in the the 2019 draft. Obviously its a risk as you don't know how Sac will turn out, but if you only look at draft picks, it's basically trading the best case scenario for the Sac pick into that valued guaranteed this season. The Sac pick has numeric upside, but I don't think it has a lot of value upside.
Picks alone, I swap Sac pick for 2018 6-9 in a heartbeat. Adding Rozier makes it a lot more difficult to stomach. But if Danny *loves* a specific guy at #6-9, then it wouldn't surprise me. Not crazy to imagine that #6-9 guy Danny loves + free agent backup PG > Sac pic + 1 season of Rozier where we get the #6-9 guy Danny loves on a 4 year rookie contract.
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I predict nothing happens but that there will be some sparks and excitingly build ups that will never come to fruition. If we end up with Bamba though, I think that’ll be really interesting. I’d trade Rozier and a 1st rounder for him.
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http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/23858201/memphis-grizzlies-discuss-trading-no-4-pick-nba-draft
Givony reports that we’re one of 7 teams who are in discussions with Memphis about the 4th pick.
Don’t really see that occurring given that it’ll have to come with Parsons’ contract. Still think a Dallas, Orlando, or Chicago is more likely than Memphis. Would love to land a long-time big to replace Horford in Bamba or JJJ. Definitely willing to part with Rozier, the Sac pick, and a bit more to get there, though I’d hesitate throwing the Memphis pick in there, too.
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If we could get Carter with Rozier, our 1st, and the Kings pick, I would do it.
I think the most likely outcome for the Sacto pick is 7-12 next year.
Why not get a comparable pick this year at a position of need? His floor seems pretty high - already has an NBA-ready body and some perimeter game, high BBIQ, willing defender. He might plug in for 10-15 minutes right away and be ready to replace Al in 2 years when (if we are lucky) Jaylen will have earned a fat contract.
Whoa, I’m a huge Wendell Carter fan, but the Kings pick is a bridge too far. I think the Memphis pick is also too much. The highest I’d go is Rozier, #27, and next year’s 1st with top-4 protection.
Not a chance the Sacramento pick isn't in play. It's the first of a few assets heading out if DA trades that far up.
Shouldn’t be with Rozier and this year’s pick already included, at least not for anything outside the top 5, which is where Carter projects to.
Are we allowed to add some more protections to the Kings Pick, like we give them that pick and make it protected 2-5 for US? Otherwise, I don't see a team like Orlando doing it unless the Kings Pick is included to be honest, or at least one of the Kings/Grizzlies Picks.
Nope, as already answered earlier today in the Luka Doncic thread. :)
Ah okay, thanks. And I never checked that thread today so didn't know
I think people are overvaluing the Sacramento pick. If they hadn’t won the lottery this year, they would’ve picked what, 7th? While they might win the lottery again or decline, I don’t know we would expect that. They’re adding the second pick, and they have no incentive to tank. If they win even a few more games they could be 10th or 12th.
To me, Getting the seventh pick this year as a sure thing, and getting a guy we need, is pretty good value compared to the uncertainty of the Sacramento pic. The other thing that will make this pic hard to use, which I don’t think people are fully taking into account is the downside risk of Sacramento actually wins the lottery. A general manager who turns this year’s seven pick into next years 25th or 26th is going to have some explaining to do. I am not sure what kind of protection we can offer – probably it would need to be an additional pick.
I really think you’re overrating Sacramento, and/or not fully considering the lottery changes going into next year. They were 7th (well, tied for 6tb with Chicago), but they were 8 games out of 10th, which would have been 30% more wins. They’re very unlikely to get to the mid-30s in win totals even with no incentive to lose. They simply don’t have the talent. Furthermore, they had the 2nd-worst expected winning percentage based on point differential, and won 4 games more than expected by this measurement. Sure, they could do that again, but more likely than not they’ll finish closer to their actual expected record. This means that actual on-court improvement might not show up in the win column.
Secondly, with flattened lottery odds, teams will have a little less incentive to tank (they will still do so, but maybe not quite as blatantly, except perhaps with an 8th/9th place conference finish tradeoff in the East).
Given that, I think it’s borderline impossible the Kings will have any worse than the 9th lottery odds, and there’s considerable upside from that point. At the 9th odds, the pick has a 16% chance to be 2-4, a 51% chance to be 9, a 26% chance to be 10, and a small chance to be worse (with most of those odds coming from Philly winning #1 overall). That 2-4 odds is better than the odds we had if the Lakers had finished 6th this year.
So conservatively we have a 1/6 chance of getting a top 4 pick, with the most likely outcome in the second-third of the lottery. But it’s not that aggressive an assumption to say the Kings improve a little on the court, but their luck reverts to the mean, and they finish with the 6th-worst record. This brings a 28% chance at a 2-4 pick and a 59% chance at a 6-8 pick.
And then there’s always the chance the bottom drops out. The Kings, again, had the 2nd-worst expected record last year, luckily won four extra games, AND were pretty healthy. A number of their top players (Bogdan, WCS, Hield, Fox, Koufos) played at least 70 games. Randolph played only 59, but at 36 that seems like a reasonable amount anyway. Garrett Temple only played 65, but he’s also on the other side of 30. So they could get more unlucky with injuries and see reduced performance, or unlucky with wins and see a reduced total. Or both. Honestly, I think the Kings are far more likely to be a bottom 5 team than they are 9th. That’s not my green glasses, or my hatred of the Kings talking. They just profile more like the 2015-2016 Nets more than they do the 2017-2018 Lakers.
That pick has too much upside, and it’s most likely floor is 10. Adding that to Rozier and this year’s pick to move up to the 6-9 range is just too much.
I agree with you on where the Sacramento pick could likely land in 2019. What I see differently is the value of that pick. If NBA GMs could draft Zion Williamson or RJ Barrett in this draft, where would they go? I'd say somewhere in the 6-12 range (I'd probably take Porter over either of them). The #3 guy (Reddish? Bol Bol? whoever) easily slides outside of the top 10.
The point is that the 2019 draft is expected to be significantly weaker than the 2018 draft. Trading up into the 6-9 range in this draft could be equivalent in value to trading into the top 3 in the the 2019 draft. Obviously its a risk as you don't know how Sac will turn out, but if you only look at draft picks, it's basically trading the best case scenario for the Sac pick into that valued guaranteed this season. The Sac pick has numeric upside, but I don't think it has a lot of value upside.
Picks alone, I swap Sac pick for 2018 6-9 in a heartbeat. Adding Rozier makes it a lot more difficult to stomach. But if Danny *loves* a specific guy at #6-9, then it wouldn't surprise me. Not crazy to imagine that #6-9 guy Danny loves + free agent backup PG > Sac pic + 1 season of Rozier where we get the #6-9 guy Danny loves on a 4 year rookie contract.
I'll be ecstatic if the Celtics get Bamba.... Also a Doncic fan but he's a few spots higher probably and harder to reach. But I'd take Bamba in any case, even if we traded all the way up to 3.
The Sac pick will only gain in value moving forward. After a year of watching these guys play in college. Hard to say how we'll feel next year about Nassir Little, Charles Bassey or Sekou Doumbouya. Those three guys interest me. The better the guys perform and the higher the pick, the more chance we have of making a package for Anthony Davis, who will certainly remain Ainge's #1 target.
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If we could get Carter with Rozier, our 1st, and the Kings pick, I would do it.
I think the most likely outcome for the Sacto pick is 7-12 next year.
Why not get a comparable pick this year at a position of need? His floor seems pretty high - already has an NBA-ready body and some perimeter game, high BBIQ, willing defender. He might plug in for 10-15 minutes right away and be ready to replace Al in 2 years when (if we are lucky) Jaylen will have earned a fat contract.
Whoa, I’m a huge Wendell Carter fan, but the Kings pick is a bridge too far. I think the Memphis pick is also too much. The highest I’d go is Rozier, #27, and next year’s 1st with top-4 protection.
Not a chance the Sacramento pick isn't in play. It's the first of a few assets heading out if DA trades that far up.
Shouldn’t be with Rozier and this year’s pick already included, at least not for anything outside the top 5, which is where Carter projects to.
Are we allowed to add some more protections to the Kings Pick, like we give them that pick and make it protected 2-5 for US? Otherwise, I don't see a team like Orlando doing it unless the Kings Pick is included to be honest, or at least one of the Kings/Grizzlies Picks.
Nope, as already answered earlier today in the Luka Doncic thread. :)
Ah okay, thanks. And I never checked that thread today so didn't know
I think people are overvaluing the Sacramento pick. If they hadn’t won the lottery this year, they would’ve picked what, 7th? While they might win the lottery again or decline, I don’t know we would expect that. They’re adding the second pick, and they have no incentive to tank. If they win even a few more games they could be 10th or 12th.
To me, Getting the seventh pick this year as a sure thing, and getting a guy we need, is pretty good value compared to the uncertainty of the Sacramento pic. The other thing that will make this pic hard to use, which I don’t think people are fully taking into account is the downside risk of Sacramento actually wins the lottery. A general manager who turns this year’s seven pick into next years 25th or 26th is going to have some explaining to do. I am not sure what kind of protection we can offer – probably it would need to be an additional pick.
More than usual this past season there seems like there was a big cluster of bad teams at the bottom of the league. The Kings only finished 6 games behind the worst team in the league, the Suns. I wouldn’t be surprised if some of those teams like the Suns (with a healthy Booker), the Grizzlies (a healthy Conley), the Mavs, and Bulls leapfrog them. The Kings aren’t really much different than the Hawks and Magic so anything can happen. Also some of the vets that helped like Zach Randolph might move on to better teams.
The other thing people forget is that this years team was lycky. By next rating they were bottom 3, they won close,games at a huge rate relative to talent. Not a trend that likely to continue next year. If they more or less stand pat that will regress and they will be bad. As for their puck, im not worried. No rookie this year is adding a big boost to winning.
The Kings had an incentive to lose this season. Next season they don't. They may be bottom 5 going into the all-star game but then the other bad teams are going to start tanking. There is also the issue of the pick being #1 protected.
Let's say the Kings finish 5th worst record next season. The lottery odds break down as:
#1 pick: 10.5% reverts to Sixers pick likely to be mid 20s
#2-#5 pick: 31.6%
#6-#9 pick: 57.9%
That's just not that valuable of a pick at this point especially since everyone continues to say that next year's draft class doesn't look good at this point.
The kings will still stink regardless if they have an incentive to tank or not.
They stunk this year and only finished with the 7th worst record.
And they'll stink next year.
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If we could get Carter with Rozier, our 1st, and the Kings pick, I would do it.
I think the most likely outcome for the Sacto pick is 7-12 next year.
Why not get a comparable pick this year at a position of need? His floor seems pretty high - already has an NBA-ready body and some perimeter game, high BBIQ, willing defender. He might plug in for 10-15 minutes right away and be ready to replace Al in 2 years when (if we are lucky) Jaylen will have earned a fat contract.
Whoa, I’m a huge Wendell Carter fan, but the Kings pick is a bridge too far. I think the Memphis pick is also too much. The highest I’d go is Rozier, #27, and next year’s 1st with top-4 protection.
Not a chance the Sacramento pick isn't in play. It's the first of a few assets heading out if DA trades that far up.
Shouldn’t be with Rozier and this year’s pick already included, at least not for anything outside the top 5, which is where Carter projects to.
Are we allowed to add some more protections to the Kings Pick, like we give them that pick and make it protected 2-5 for US? Otherwise, I don't see a team like Orlando doing it unless the Kings Pick is included to be honest, or at least one of the Kings/Grizzlies Picks.
Nope, as already answered earlier today in the Luka Doncic thread. :)
Ah okay, thanks. And I never checked that thread today so didn't know
I think people are overvaluing the Sacramento pick. If they hadn’t won the lottery this year, they would’ve picked what, 7th? While they might win the lottery again or decline, I don’t know we would expect that. They’re adding the second pick, and they have no incentive to tank. If they win even a few more games they could be 10th or 12th.
To me, Getting the seventh pick this year as a sure thing, and getting a guy we need, is pretty good value compared to the uncertainty of the Sacramento pic. The other thing that will make this pic hard to use, which I don’t think people are fully taking into account is the downside risk of Sacramento actually wins the lottery. A general manager who turns this year’s seven pick into next years 25th or 26th is going to have some explaining to do. I am not sure what kind of protection we can offer – probably it would need to be an additional pick.
More than usual this past season there seems like there was a big cluster of bad teams at the bottom of the league. The Kings only finished 6 games behind the worst team in the league, the Suns. I wouldn’t be surprised if some of those teams like the Suns (with a healthy Booker), the Grizzlies (a healthy Conley), the Mavs, and Bulls leapfrog them. The Kings aren’t really much different than the Hawks and Magic so anything can happen. Also some of the vets that helped like Zach Randolph might move on to better teams.
The other thing people forget is that this years team was lycky. By next rating they were bottom 3, they won close,games at a huge rate relative to talent. Not a trend that likely to continue next year. If they more or less stand pat that will regress and they will be bad. As for their puck, im not worried. No rookie this year is adding a big boost to winning.
The Kings had an incentive to lose this season. Next season they don't. They may be bottom 5 going into the all-star game but then the other bad teams are going to start tanking. There is also the issue of the pick being #1 protected.
Let's say the Kings finish 5th worst record next season. The lottery odds break down as:
#1 pick: 10.5% reverts to Sixers pick likely to be mid 20s
#2-#5 pick: 31.6%
#6-#9 pick: 57.9%
That's just not that valuable of a pick at this point especially since everyone continues to say that next year's draft class doesn't look good at this point.
The kings will still stink regardless if they have an incentive to tank or not.
They stunk this year and only finished with the 7th worst record.
And they'll stink next year.
And they could finish with the 7th worst record again next season.
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Will be very interesting how it all plays out.
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If we could get Carter with Rozier, our 1st, and the Kings pick, I would do it.
I think the most likely outcome for the Sacto pick is 7-12 next year.
Why not get a comparable pick this year at a position of need? His floor seems pretty high - already has an NBA-ready body and some perimeter game, high BBIQ, willing defender. He might plug in for 10-15 minutes right away and be ready to replace Al in 2 years when (if we are lucky) Jaylen will have earned a fat contract.
Whoa, I’m a huge Wendell Carter fan, but the Kings pick is a bridge too far. I think the Memphis pick is also too much. The highest I’d go is Rozier, #27, and next year’s 1st with top-4 protection.
Not a chance the Sacramento pick isn't in play. It's the first of a few assets heading out if DA trades that far up.
Shouldn’t be with Rozier and this year’s pick already included, at least not for anything outside the top 5, which is where Carter projects to.
Are we allowed to add some more protections to the Kings Pick, like we give them that pick and make it protected 2-5 for US? Otherwise, I don't see a team like Orlando doing it unless the Kings Pick is included to be honest, or at least one of the Kings/Grizzlies Picks.
Nope, as already answered earlier today in the Luka Doncic thread. :)
Ah okay, thanks. And I never checked that thread today so didn't know
I think people are overvaluing the Sacramento pick. If they hadn’t won the lottery this year, they would’ve picked what, 7th? While they might win the lottery again or decline, I don’t know we would expect that. They’re adding the second pick, and they have no incentive to tank. If they win even a few more games they could be 10th or 12th.
To me, Getting the seventh pick this year as a sure thing, and getting a guy we need, is pretty good value compared to the uncertainty of the Sacramento pic. The other thing that will make this pic hard to use, which I don’t think people are fully taking into account is the downside risk of Sacramento actually wins the lottery. A general manager who turns this year’s seven pick into next years 25th or 26th is going to have some explaining to do. I am not sure what kind of protection we can offer – probably it would need to be an additional pick.
More than usual this past season there seems like there was a big cluster of bad teams at the bottom of the league. The Kings only finished 6 games behind the worst team in the league, the Suns. I wouldn’t be surprised if some of those teams like the Suns (with a healthy Booker), the Grizzlies (a healthy Conley), the Mavs, and Bulls leapfrog them. The Kings aren’t really much different than the Hawks and Magic so anything can happen. Also some of the vets that helped like Zach Randolph might move on to better teams.
The other thing people forget is that this years team was lycky. By next rating they were bottom 3, they won close,games at a huge rate relative to talent. Not a trend that likely to continue next year. If they more or less stand pat that will regress and they will be bad. As for their puck, im not worried. No rookie this year is adding a big boost to winning.
The Kings had an incentive to lose this season. Next season they don't. They may be bottom 5 going into the all-star game but then the other bad teams are going to start tanking. There is also the issue of the pick being #1 protected.
Let's say the Kings finish 5th worst record next season. The lottery odds break down as:
#1 pick: 10.5% reverts to Sixers pick likely to be mid 20s
#2-#5 pick: 31.6%
#6-#9 pick: 57.9%
That's just not that valuable of a pick at this point especially since everyone continues to say that next year's draft class doesn't look good at this point.
The kings will still stink regardless if they have an incentive to tank or not.
They stunk this year and only finished with the 7th worst record.
And they'll stink next year.
And they could finish with the 7th worst record again next season.
Means that theyll still stink regardless if they have a motivation to tank or not.
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If we could get Carter with Rozier, our 1st, and the Kings pick, I would do it.
I think the most likely outcome for the Sacto pick is 7-12 next year.
Why not get a comparable pick this year at a position of need? His floor seems pretty high - already has an NBA-ready body and some perimeter game, high BBIQ, willing defender. He might plug in for 10-15 minutes right away and be ready to replace Al in 2 years when (if we are lucky) Jaylen will have earned a fat contract.
Whoa, I’m a huge Wendell Carter fan, but the Kings pick is a bridge too far. I think the Memphis pick is also too much. The highest I’d go is Rozier, #27, and next year’s 1st with top-4 protection.
Not a chance the Sacramento pick isn't in play. It's the first of a few assets heading out if DA trades that far up.
Shouldn’t be with Rozier and this year’s pick already included, at least not for anything outside the top 5, which is where Carter projects to.
Are we allowed to add some more protections to the Kings Pick, like we give them that pick and make it protected 2-5 for US? Otherwise, I don't see a team like Orlando doing it unless the Kings Pick is included to be honest, or at least one of the Kings/Grizzlies Picks.
Nope, as already answered earlier today in the Luka Doncic thread. :)
Ah okay, thanks. And I never checked that thread today so didn't know
I think people are overvaluing the Sacramento pick. If they hadn’t won the lottery this year, they would’ve picked what, 7th? While they might win the lottery again or decline, I don’t know we would expect that. They’re adding the second pick, and they have no incentive to tank. If they win even a few more games they could be 10th or 12th.
To me, Getting the seventh pick this year as a sure thing, and getting a guy we need, is pretty good value compared to the uncertainty of the Sacramento pic. The other thing that will make this pic hard to use, which I don’t think people are fully taking into account is the downside risk of Sacramento actually wins the lottery. A general manager who turns this year’s seven pick into next years 25th or 26th is going to have some explaining to do. I am not sure what kind of protection we can offer – probably it would need to be an additional pick.
More than usual this past season there seems like there was a big cluster of bad teams at the bottom of the league. The Kings only finished 6 games behind the worst team in the league, the Suns. I wouldn’t be surprised if some of those teams like the Suns (with a healthy Booker), the Grizzlies (a healthy Conley), the Mavs, and Bulls leapfrog them. The Kings aren’t really much different than the Hawks and Magic so anything can happen. Also some of the vets that helped like Zach Randolph might move on to better teams.
The other thing people forget is that this years team was lycky. By next rating they were bottom 3, they won close,games at a huge rate relative to talent. Not a trend that likely to continue next year. If they more or less stand pat that will regress and they will be bad. As for their puck, im not worried. No rookie this year is adding a big boost to winning.
The Kings had an incentive to lose this season. Next season they don't. They may be bottom 5 going into the all-star game but then the other bad teams are going to start tanking. There is also the issue of the pick being #1 protected.
Let's say the Kings finish 5th worst record next season. The lottery odds break down as:
#1 pick: 10.5% reverts to Sixers pick likely to be mid 20s
#2-#5 pick: 31.6%
#6-#9 pick: 57.9%
That's just not that valuable of a pick at this point especially since everyone continues to say that next year's draft class doesn't look good at this point.
The kings will still stink regardless if they have an incentive to tank or not.
They stunk this year and only finished with the 7th worst record.
And they'll stink next year.
And they could finish with the 7th worst record again next season.
Means that theyll still stink regardless if they have a motivation to tank or not.
I think they'll be one of the three worst teams. I just can't find teams who project as worse next year...of course injuries throw things out of whack...
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http://twitter.com/ForeverGreen_/status/1009655280114814976
Things heating up!
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I have to laugh when I see someone say such-and-such team has no incentive to tank, as though the only teams that are bad are the ones that want to be bad. Do people really have that short of memories? The Celtics just got the #3 and #1 picks from a team that had no incentive to tank.
How bad Sacramento is will have to do with how bad their team is, not how much management wants to win.
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http://twitter.com/ForeverGreen_/status/1009655280114814976
Things heating up!
It’s going to be quite difficult to find a team to take on Parsons for 1-2 late 1sts. That kills your cap space for two years, and there are very few teams with that kind of space available this summer.
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http://twitter.com/ForeverGreen_/status/1009655280114814976
Things heating up!
It’s going to be quite difficult to find a team to take on Parsons for 1-2 late 1sts. That kills your cap space for two years, and there are very few teams with that kind of space available this summer.
Yeah, 2 more years at $50 million is A LOT but a team that knows they won't be able to get big time FA and that has a lot of cap space could be lured into a trade if the return is worth it and you only have to carry Parsons for 2 years and maybe less as the last year of such bloated contracts are sometimes worth it in trades and he could get healthy and put up numbers he did in Houston.
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The Kings had an incentive to lose this season. Next season they don't. They may be bottom 5 going into the all-star game but then the other bad teams are going to start tanking. There is also the issue of the pick being #1 protected.
This was true of the Nets too, when we traded with them and guess what we got some really high picks. So your comment means zilch.
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I have to laugh when I see someone say such-and-such team has no incentive to tank, as though the only teams that are bad are the ones that want to be bad. Do people really have that short of memories? The Celtics just got the #3 and #1 picks from a team that had no incentive to tank.
How bad Sacramento is will have to do with how bad their team is, not how much management wants to win.
Clearly the players (who care so much about future draft picks) and coaches (who have tons of job security and won't mind a couple more losses on their resume) will tank if the front office wants them to
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I think it's possible Ainge is after one of those bigs. I doubt it's Bomba. The rumor is Orlando's #6 could be had for Rozier and the Sac pick. Orlando needs a PG, and Rozier is a good fit.
From your lips...
I’d take that deal right now.
Mike
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Wow, I have no idea where that account came from. Mods, how do I delete the account above (mef623)?
Mike
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Wow, I have no idea where that account came from. Mods, how do I delete the account above (mef623)?
Mike
The more Mike’s the merrier!
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Wendell Carter aka Al Horford, Jr. from Duke.
ORL would be a nice target as they need a PG and future picks too.
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Wendell Carter aka Al Horford, Jr. from Duke.
ORL would be a nice target as they need a PG and future picks too.
I see Wendell as a more Atlanta Al Horford type player than the one we've experienced (who are drastically different players). Maybe he's a bit stronger too, but less of a ball-handler.
Would love WCJ
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If we could get Carter with Rozier, our 1st, and the Kings pick, I would do it.
I think the most likely outcome for the Sacto pick is 7-12 next year.
Why not get a comparable pick this year at a position of need? His floor seems pretty high - already has an NBA-ready body and some perimeter game, high BBIQ, willing defender. He might plug in for 10-15 minutes right away and be ready to replace Al in 2 years when (if we are lucky) Jaylen will have earned a fat contract.
I'd also do the Sacto pick and Rozier for Wendell Carter or Jaren Jackson Jr, and I'd include the Clippers pick and our pick next year in place of #27 if possible, to still get a backup guard.
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I think it's possible Ainge is after one of those bigs. I doubt it's Bomba. The rumor is Orlando's #6 could be had for Rozier and the Sac pick. Orlando needs a PG, and Rozier is a good fit.
From your lips...
I’d take that deal right now.
Mike
Let’s do this deal for the 6th pick, and the Grizzles trade where we send out the Grizzlies pick we own to a 3rd team with Parsons. Add fillers and sweeteners if needed. Draft Doncic and a big. Done and done. Lol
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Wow, I have no idea where that account came from. Mods, how do I delete the account above (mef623)?
Mike
You're not supposed to out your own burner account after just one post ;)
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I think it's possible Ainge is after one of those bigs. I doubt it's Bomba. The rumor is Orlando's #6 could be had for Rozier and the Sac pick. Orlando needs a PG, and Rozier is a good fit.
From your lips...
I’d take that deal right now.
Mike
Let’s do this deal for the 6th pick, and the Grizzles trade where we send out the Grizzlies pick we own to a 3rd team with Parsons. Add fillers and sweeteners if needed. Draft Doncic and a big. Done and done. Lol
Thats as close to fireworks as we'll ever get lol
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Wow, I have no idea where that account came from. Mods, how do I delete the account above (mef623)?
Mike
You're not supposed to out your own burner account after just one post ;)
No kidding. But at least I'm supposed to know about my own burner account! :)
Mike
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https://twitter.com/NBCSBoston/status/1009841908628279296
A Sherrod Blakely tweeted out that the Celtics will remain at 27 and not trade up. I think this is the confirmation that we were all waiting for. As history tells us, we should assume the opposite of what Sherrod tells us. Now I expect the Celtics to trade the #27 pick and get into the top 10.
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https://twitter.com/NBCSBoston/status/1009841908628279296
A Sherrod Blakely tweeted out that the Celtics will remain at 27 and not trade up. I think this is the confirmation that we were all waiting for. As history tells us, we should assume the opposite of what Sherrod tells us. Now I expect the Celtics to trade the #27 pick and get into the top 10.
Just when I was ready for a quiet day, now we know something major will happen- I will be in the air when draft is happening. I guess I need to buy wifi now! 😁
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https://twitter.com/NBCSBoston/status/1009841908628279296
A Sherrod Blakely tweeted out that the Celtics will remain at 27 and not trade up. I think this is the confirmation that we were all waiting for. As history tells us, we should assume the opposite of what Sherrod tells us. Now I expect the Celtics to trade the #27 pick and get into the top 10.
Haven't we all heard this before? The only time was legit surprised was when we traded last years 1st to Philly. I'm willing to bet Danny drafts or trades to draft someone we've never even talked about.