I expect the Raptors to win. LBJ exhausted himself to beat a lesser team in the Pacers. He's going to get worn down against the Raptors.
Meanwhile the Cavs defense is bad, and they aren't as susceptible to the junk high double like Oladipo was. If you try that against he Raptors as more than a change up mid game they'll pick you apart.
The Raptors are a jump shooting team. They have no one with the ball skills that Oladipo has. Thus, the Cavs below average defense will be much more suited to stopping the Raptors then they were to stopping the Pacers. The Raptors also have no one that can even pretend to guard James. The Pacers could give him a lot of strong and varied defensive looks, the Raptors can't.
What do you think of the Cavs being 6.5 point underdogs tonight? 3.5 to 1 to win the east? I know you were regularly referencing the odds earlier in the season when Cleveland was the favorite. They now have the 3rd worst odds of winning the east of the teams left (only ahead of us and our missing 3 starters).
I am genuinely curious why you think the oddsmakers have turned on them when they have been the darlings of lines ever since Lebron returned to Cleveland.
6.5 tonight seems about right for tonight given Cleveland got pushed to 7 games and the Raptors have been sitting at home for 4 days (which shouldn't be enough for rust to really set it, but is long enough to give them a real rest advantage).
As for the overall odds, they are based on bettors and with the Cavs coming off of a tough series in which only James realized the Cavs were playing games, they just haven't looked that good of late, which sways bettors. The Cavs and Raptors also have to go through each other and then likely Philly, while Philly "only" has the depleted Celtics. Matchups matter to bettors.
As I've been saying since last series, the Pacers are a horrid matchup for the Cavs given Oladipo's superb ball skills. The Cavs, especially with Hill banged up, quite simply have no one that can pretend to defend Oladipo when he gets going to the basket. With Oladipo having his way, he was able to find the open shooters which also affected how that series went, but make no mistake whatever the Cavs defensive troubles were with the Pacers, they were all because of Oladipo. The Raptors have no one like Oladipo. They won't be able to capitalize on that weakness of the Cavs because they just don't have anyone capable of capitalizing on it. And as we've seen time and time again, the Raptors have no one that can even pretend to guard James. James always has a field day against the Raptors and quite frankly I can't imagine that the rest of the Cavs play as consistently poorly as they did against the Pacers. I mean in the 7 games, James was the only Cav with a 20 point game. Love was the 2nd leading scorer at 11.4 a game and he generally played like crap (I think his hand is bothering him so that may continue).
EDIT. As I said, I think the series goes 6, but if the Cavs somehow pull out the win tonight, the series is over. A loss tonight would break and destroy the Raptors.
