How Many (Currently Healthy) Backcourt Duos Would You Take Over Kemba - Smart?

[mmmmm]

Yeah, I'm pretty firmly in the "Kemba+Brown as my preferred 1-2" camp.

That said, it is notable that whether it's Brown or Smart in at the 2, Brad is without hesitation throwing one of those two guys over to defend whomever is the best offensive player on the other team, regardless of position.

Both guys, though very different, are playing great ball right now on both ends of the court.  Jaylen is just overall way more valuable because of his offense.   He's also arguably slightly more versatile on defense (though that doesn't mean he's better at a particular defensive match up).

[Moranis]

Boston: Kemba Brown.

I do not agree with Pho's opinion that a Kemba Smart backcourt is better than a Kemba Brown backcourt.

My point was that the team is better with both Smart and Kemba on the floor, and if that's the case, they're the backcourt.  Doesn't mean Jaylen isn't also on the floor.

Are they really?  Smart is +8.8 on the year.  That is behind Tatum, Walker, Hayward, Brown, and Theis (Poirier also, but I'm not counting him).  And Theis has him more than doubled and Tatum nearly has him doubled.  The on-off per 100 possessions for Smart is only a very meager +0.4.  So the team is only slightly better with him on the floor then when he is on the bench. 

Tatum is the real value player with an on-off per 100 possession of +27.4, which through 10 games is absolutely astronomically (especially with his poor shooting to start the year).  It also goes to the point that the team lacks a credible PF outside of Tatum on the roster.  If Tatum gets hurt, the team is in big trouble.  More so than any other player.

Except Tatum hasn't been playing PF. Brown, when in, has taken the defensive assignments on PFs. His main covers have been Hachimura, Porzingas, Randle, PJ Washington, Horford and Siakam.

Tatum's great numbers are probably due, in part, to the fact that when in lineups with Brown and Hayward or Hayward and Smart or Brown and Smart, Tatum is usually defending the worst offensive player playing the 2-4 position for the opposition.

Notice I said in part. Jayson, to his credit, has been playing great defense, it's just easier to do when not matched up with the opposition's top or 2nd best offensive option.

Brown playing mostly PF complicates the argument that he is even a guard but, I think he is most effective at SG, hence why I think a Brown Kemba pairing is this team's best backcourt.

+- and on/off aren't altered at all by who you guard.  They are however affected a great deal by who you are swapped out for and when Tatum leaves it is most often for guys like Semi and G. Williams who are just downright awful as compared to Tatum.  Only Edwards is worse than Semi in those metrics.  G. Williams is pretty poor as well.  If Tatum gets hurt that means more minutes for craptastic players like Semi and Grant, and that would be a recipe for disaster. 

[nickagneta]

Boston: Kemba Brown.

I do not agree with Pho's opinion that a Kemba Smart backcourt is better than a Kemba Brown backcourt.

My point was that the team is better with both Smart and Kemba on the floor, and if that's the case, they're the backcourt.  Doesn't mean Jaylen isn't also on the floor.

Are they really?  Smart is +8.8 on the year.  That is behind Tatum, Walker, Hayward, Brown, and Theis (Poirier also, but I'm not counting him).  And Theis has him more than doubled and Tatum nearly has him doubled.  The on-off per 100 possessions for Smart is only a very meager +0.4.  So the team is only slightly better with him on the floor then when he is on the bench. 

Tatum is the real value player with an on-off per 100 possession of +27.4, which through 10 games is absolutely astronomically (especially with his poor shooting to start the year).  It also goes to the point that the team lacks a credible PF outside of Tatum on the roster.  If Tatum gets hurt, the team is in big trouble.  More so than any other player.

Except Tatum hasn't been playing PF. Brown, when in, has taken the defensive assignments on PFs. His main covers have been Hachimura, Porzingas, Randle, PJ Washington, Horford and Siakam.

Tatum's great numbers are probably due, in part, to the fact that when in lineups with Brown and Hayward or Hayward and Smart or Brown and Smart, Tatum is usually defending the worst offensive player playing the 2-4 position for the opposition.

Notice I said in part. Jayson, to his credit, has been playing great defense, it's just easier to do when not matched up with the opposition's top or 2nd best offensive option.

Brown playing mostly PF complicates the argument that he is even a guard but, I think he is most effective at SG, hence why I think a Brown Kemba pairing is this team's best backcourt.

+- and on/off aren't altered at all by who you guard.  They are however affected a great deal by who you are swapped out for and when Tatum leaves it is most often for guys like Semi and G. Williams who are just downright awful as compared to Tatum.  Only Edwards is worse than Semi in those metrics.  G. Williams is pretty poor as well.  If Tatum gets hurt that means more minutes for craptastic players like Semi and Grant, and that would be a recipe for disaster.

All true, had a senior moment there confusing +/- off/on with def/off rating net.

But my point still stands that Tatum has not been playing PF. That has been Brown.

[keevsnick]

Boston: Kemba Brown.

I do not agree with Pho's opinion that a Kemba Smart backcourt is better than a Kemba Brown backcourt.

My point was that the team is better with both Smart and Kemba on the floor, and if that's the case, they're the backcourt.  Doesn't mean Jaylen isn't also on the floor.

Are they really?  Smart is +8.8 on the year.  That is behind Tatum, Walker, Hayward, Brown, and Theis (Poirier also, but I'm not counting him).  And Theis has him more than doubled and Tatum nearly has him doubled.  The on-off per 100 possessions for Smart is only a very meager +0.4.  So the team is only slightly better with him on the floor then when he is on the bench. 

Tatum is the real value player with an on-off per 100 possession of +27.4, which through 10 games is absolutely astronomically (especially with his poor shooting to start the year).  It also goes to the point that the team lacks a credible PF outside of Tatum on the roster. If Tatum gets hurt, the team is in big trouble.  More so than any other player.

Ya I dont believe this at all. Like if Tatum gets hurt while GH is out then sure, the C;s would struggle because at that point they've lost so much offense. But once Hayward is back I think they'd be fine. I understand the Plus-Minus indicates they are better with him out there but I can't think of any structural reason based on how he's played that would explain that impact. Not to say he's played poorly, but plus minus or net rating after only 10 games can be very fluky and can be impacted by a lot more than strictly how ell he's played. Like he had a +16 in that 1/18 game and I can tell you he wasn't a positive player in that game and that 1/10 your sample. 

But I suppose this is off topic now.

[Moranis]

Boston: Kemba Brown.

I do not agree with Pho's opinion that a Kemba Smart backcourt is better than a Kemba Brown backcourt.

My point was that the team is better with both Smart and Kemba on the floor, and if that's the case, they're the backcourt.  Doesn't mean Jaylen isn't also on the floor.

Are they really?  Smart is +8.8 on the year.  That is behind Tatum, Walker, Hayward, Brown, and Theis (Poirier also, but I'm not counting him).  And Theis has him more than doubled and Tatum nearly has him doubled.  The on-off per 100 possessions for Smart is only a very meager +0.4.  So the team is only slightly better with him on the floor then when he is on the bench. 

Tatum is the real value player with an on-off per 100 possession of +27.4, which through 10 games is absolutely astronomically (especially with his poor shooting to start the year).  It also goes to the point that the team lacks a credible PF outside of Tatum on the roster. If Tatum gets hurt, the team is in big trouble.  More so than any other player.

Ya I dont believe this at all. Like if Tatum gets hurt while GH is out then sure, the C;s would struggle because at that point they've lost so much offense. But once Hayward is back I think they'd be fine. I understand the Plus-Minus indicates they are better with him out there but I can't think of any structural reason based on how he's played that would explain that impact. Not to say he's played poorly, but plus minus or net rating after only 10 games can be very fluky and can be impacted by a lot more than strictly how ell he's played. Like he had a +16 in that 1/18 game and I can tell you he wasn't a positive player in that game and that 1/10 your sample. 

But I suppose this is off topic now.

Tatum is that critical because of who takes over for him when he sits and that is mostly guys like Semi and Grant.  They are below average players at the absolute best.  They shouldn't be getting rotation minutes.

To get us back on track that isn't the case with Smart.  Smart is a bench player and a role player.  He is a very good role player, but that is what he is.  The overrating of him on this board of late is pretty crazy.  This thread, the thread where people claim he is worth the max and a top 10 SG, etc.  Smart doesn't even start for the C's.  His on/off numbers are poor.  His +- numbers are poor.  He does a lot of little things, but he isn't exactly setting the winning world on fire.

[nickagneta]

Wait...so if all five starters are healthy and so is Smart, if any other the three wings get hurt, the one that that would hurt the team most is Tatum? Is that is what is being said?

And if it is, Semi and Grant are not going to see any larger a role than what they have when Brown and Hayward have been out. Brown or Hayward would take Tatum's role, Smart would take Brown's or Tatum's role. Then Smart's role is taken by more minutes to Wanamaker, Green, Edwards, etc.

I don't see just the loss of Tatum being any worse or better than the singular loss of Hayward or Brown when everyone else is healthy.

[PhoSita]

Yeah, I'm pretty firmly in the "Kemba+Brown as my preferred 1-2" camp.

That said, it is notable that whether it's Brown or Smart in at the 2, Brad is without hesitation throwing one of those two guys over to defend whomever is the best offensive player on the other team, regardless of position.

Both guys, though very different, are playing great ball right now on both ends of the court.  Jaylen is just overall way more valuable because of his offense.   He's also arguably slightly more versatile on defense (though that doesn't mean he's better at a particular defensive match up).

I guess I'm persuadable that this is the case, but my gut instinct and my impression based on watching the team is that the best version of the team has Smart on the floor.


Part of my hesitation to think of Brown as a SG, notwithstanding the fact that he often starts at the 2, is that he doesn't play at all like a 2.  When he's out there I feel like he's often functioning as a sort of hybrid forward. 

Of course, Smart is defending big men a lot of the time, so who can say ....


But Smart is a secondary ball handler who takes (and, at least right now, makes) a lot of three pointers. 

I really like how the team looks when Kemba and Smart are out there, and you can pretty much mix and match Tatum / Hayward / Brown plus one of the big men.

[PhoSita]

FWIW


Kemba + Smart + Brown:
(93 min, 190 poss)
132.6 ORTG ... 60.3% TS
116.3 DRTG ... 58.7% TS
Net - +16.3

Kemba + Brown & Smart OFF:
(78 min, 161 poss)
115.5 ORTG ... 57.4% TS
1.00 DRTG ... 49.3% TS
Net - +15.5

Kemba + Smart & Brown OFF:
(131 min, 279 poss)
108.6 ORTG ... 55.9% TS
106.8 DRTG ... 53.4% TS
Net - +1.8


Pretty clear the team has been best with Jaylen Brown out there.  But some indication that they're better with Smart out there as well than without.


But to be fair -- the minutes without Smart are probably mostly against starters while the minutes with Smart are probably against at least partial bench lineups.

[The Oracle]

FWIW


Kemba + Smart + Brown:
(93 min, 190 poss)
132.6 ORTG ... 60.3% TS
116.3 DRTG ... 58.7% TS
Net - +16.3

Kemba + Brown & Smart OFF:
(78 min, 161 poss)
115.5 ORTG ... 57.4% TS
1.00 DRTG ... 49.3% TS
Net - +15.5

Kemba + Smart & Brown OFF:
(131 min, 279 poss)
108.6 ORTG ... 55.9% TS
106.8 DRTG ... 53.4% TS
Net - +1.8


Pretty clear the team has been best with Jaylen Brown out there.  But some indication that they're better with Smart out there as well than without.


But to be fair -- the minutes without Smart are probably mostly against starters while the minutes with Smart are probably against at least partial bench lineups.

Kemba and Smart had to play 3 games without Brown and his replacements were awful.

[mmmmm]

FWIW


Kemba + Smart + Brown:
(93 min, 190 poss)
132.6 ORTG ... 60.3% TS
116.3 DRTG ... 58.7% TS
Net - +16.3

Kemba + Brown & Smart OFF:
(78 min, 161 poss)
115.5 ORTG ... 57.4% TS
1.00 DRTG ... 49.3% TS
Net - +15.5

Kemba + Smart & Brown OFF:
(131 min, 279 poss)
108.6 ORTG ... 55.9% TS
106.8 DRTG ... 53.4% TS
Net - +1.8


Pretty clear the team has been best with Jaylen Brown out there.  But some indication that they're better with Smart out there as well than without.


But to be fair -- the minutes without Smart are probably mostly against starters while the minutes with Smart are probably against at least partial bench lineups.

Kemba and Smart had to play 3 games without Brown and his replacements were awful.

The sample sizes are very small, of course, but here is the purest Brown | Smart swap within the starting lineups (made possible by virtue of Brown missing 3 games):

Kemba+Smart+Gordon+Jayson+Theis   50 minutes,  103.8 ORtg, 89.2 DRtg, +14.6
Kemba+Brown+Gordon+Jayson+Theis   27 minutes,  120.0 ORtg, 86.7 DRtg, +33.3

Of course, Gordon got hurt and now we have

Kemba+Smart+Brown+Jayson+Theis.   21 minutes,   140.5 ORtg,  76.7 DRtg,  +63.7

To be fair, that last lineup was against arguably the weakest competition.   And of course right now, THEIS has gotten hurt!!!  Argh!

Small samples are small.   Don't read too much into any of this.

Would really like to see this team fully healthy when the playoffs come around!

[PhoSita]

https://twitter.com/HPbasketball/status/1195381787142156290?s=19

[fairweatherfan]

https://twitter.com/HPbasketball/status/1195381787142156290?s=19

Just to expand this here's the series of tweets (they aren't threaded well):

I’m working on a Celtics feature.

It’s going to be hard for anyone to have a better defensive month than Marcus Smart has had. I don’t say that lightly. It’s just insane what he’s done.

They’re averaging 9 fewer opponent points in the paint per 100 with him on the floor.

---

Opponents shoot worse, get fewer offensive rebounds, draw fewer fouls, turn the ball over more, take fewer threes, make fewer threes, score fewer putbacks, score fewer fastbreak points, and score fewer paint points with Marcus Smart on the floor.

---

It’s a small sample but opponents are just 7 of 15 at the rim with Smart defending, 13 percentage points worse than expected. He’s also drawn 9 charges, the most on the Celtics. Their foul rate is 9 percentage points lower with him on the floor.

---

Synergy’s logging can be problematic, but on shots they have Smart as the defender, opponents are shooting 34.1%.

Opponents are 7 of 31 from 3 via http://NBA.com with him defending, 9 of 34 via Synergy.

Some to all of it will come back down to earth but these are DPOY type numbers.

[Moranis]

Tatum +12 in the 1 point loss.  At some point this stops being a fluke and starts being the reality when it comes to Tatum and his actual value to the scoreboard.  I mean he can shoot 1 for 18 and be +16.  He is amazingly valuable because of who actually comes in for him.

[Somebody]

Tatum +12 in the 1 point loss.  At some point this stops being a fluke and starts being the reality when it comes to Tatum and his actual value to the scoreboard.  I mean he can shoot 1 for 18 and be +16.  He is amazingly valuable because of who actually comes in for him.

This only proves that his situational value on the Celtics is high instead of him being a really good player. You can be a bang average player who has crazy +/- stats because your replacement is garbage.

Waiting for players' APM or RPM this season to come out, those adjust for a multitude of factors that give us a better idea of how a player affects the scoreboard.

[Moranis]

Tatum +12 in the 1 point loss.  At some point this stops being a fluke and starts being the reality when it comes to Tatum and his actual value to the scoreboard.  I mean he can shoot 1 for 18 and be +16.  He is amazingly valuable because of who actually comes in for him.

This only proves that his situational value on the Celtics is high instead of him being a really good player. You can be a bang average player who has crazy +/- stats because your replacement is garbage.

These are the top 10 in +- that have played at least 9 games.  They are in order

Tatum
Kawhi
Barton
Lebron
Giannis
Booker
Butler
Oubre
Siakam
Millsap

Will Barton is the only odd player, but Millsap is 10th and Murray is 11th so that unit for Denver has been fantastic.

For a few games +- can be skewed tremendously by a good or bad run, but at some point in the season, the cream will rise and the best players on the best teams lead the league in that category (last year, for example, of the players that played at least 60 games, the top 12 league leaders were all Warriors, Bucks, and Raptors).  So it will balance out some, but for Tatum to be so much larger than the guys that start with him, is quite surprising as usually the units mimic each other.