To be clear, I also think he makes first team. The Celtics are going to finish like 8+ games ahead of everyone else and Tatum will play in like 77/82 games and put up great numbers and that will get him 1st team. He'll likely finish 5th (maybe 4th) in MVP voting behind Shai, Giannis, Jokic and maybe Luka becasue fair or not the team is awesome when he's out there, and almost as awesome when he's not.
Some parts of Tatum are overrated: He's never been as good a scorer as people think, just not as efficient as the bets guys.
Some parts are underrated: The guy ABSOLUTELY shows up in big games. Ask Milwaukee or Phili.
Overall i think he's properly rated as the 6th to 8th best player in the NBA who finishes higher than that in MVP because he never misses games.
One last thing: There are no positions for all-nba this year.
I have been thinking about this and assessing my opinion based on all the responses. In particular, the On-Off aspect of Tatum's production. Tatum happens to play on a really good team. When he is on the court, they are the best team by a fair margin, when he is not on the court, they are still a very good team. Other teams like DAL, MIL, OKC drop off more when Luka, Giannis, or Shai are not on the court. Is that because of the individual players or the rest of the team? The answer is both of course. I don't think it is something that is easily quantified. Should Tatum be "punished" or viewed as less valuable because the rest of his team is much better than the rest of the team of these other stars?
I concede is it a factor, but I don't think it is a deciding factor. If Tatum was on a worse team, like last season and other seasons, than his On-Off would be more in line. The On Off is more about who replaces Tatum when he is not on the court relative to who replaces Shai (for example) than it is about Tatum relative to Shai. Or at least it is about both.
As to Tatum's scoring, I think he would score more points if he wanted to or needed to. His scoring efficiency is quantifiable so I can't dispute that he is a less efficient score than Shai (for example) and that is a factor that should be considered in the overall MVP or All NBA consideration. But there are a lot of factors that need to be considered and everyone considers them differently (part of the problem with the whole concept of MVP).