Author Topic: IP Ranks The Pick-Two Teams By Divison (All Divisions Are Up)  (Read 92210 times)

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Re: IP Ranks The Pick-Two Teams By Divison (All Divisions Are Up)
« Reply #285 on: March 01, 2012, 03:39:06 PM »

Offline Who

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Yeah, I have the Knicks over the Cavs too. Well contested series but NY always have another gear and win the series fairly quickly. Probably five games.

I think they have three advantages (Dwight, Millsap and Lowry) to one (Deng) in the starting lineup and that the benches are neutral.

Re: IP Ranks The Pick-Two Teams By Divison (All Divisions Are Up)
« Reply #286 on: March 01, 2012, 03:59:57 PM »

Offline nickagneta

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I seem to remember in the CB Draft using the "You got no answer for" LeBron argument and having it get shot down by IP even though he was comically claiming Delfino and Derrick Williams could contain LeBron and now he's bringing it out for the Howard/Bynum matchup even though he admits Bynum the second best center in the league.

Things that make you go hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm.


Personally I think its a coin flip of a seven game series and given that New York would have home court that maybe, maybe the Knicks would pull it out.

Well, then humor me. Tell me, in as many words as I used or more, with research, how that comes out.

Because I'm not seeing it.

EDIT: ANNNND the 'I have no answer for LeBron, but I'll still win' debate only works if you're clearly better across the board elsewise. Cuz, you're not.
And neither were you in the CB Draft.

Lowry>Billups
Harden>whoever you had playing there, doesn't matter
LeBron
STAT>Millsap? Millsap is having the better year.
Bogut<Bynum

I'll take the hit on Bogut, and I'm not going to argue Stat V Millsap cuz with Stat's recent play I don't have a leg to stand on.

But I maintain that with the available facts at the time, it was a valid argument.

Kinda like Danny Ainge's Perkins trade.
And our bench killed yours Jennings, Neal, Miller, Diaw, Singleton.

Neither here nor there.

Regarding this matchup.

PG matchup. Its a draw statistically but if I am in the playoffs and am expecting one of these players to play huge, its Irving. His play late in games and against some of the better PGs in the league is tremendous and I would expect him to take this matchup. Both teams have capable vet backups that play good defense. Watson is probably the better passer and defender where Ridnour the better scorer and rebounder.

SG matchup: Kind of a toss up as it is the weakest area on both squads. I think George Hill might be the best all around player of the bunch but have to admit that Rush and Thompson are shooting lights out. But then again they are doing it for the "we never play defense" Warriors. Its a lot easier to shoot lights out when you aren't playing defense. I think New York has a very slight advantage here.

SF matchup: Brewer and Prince are good defender but neither are having great defensive years. Detroit is actually 8 pp100 possession better defensively when Prince is off the floor and he has an 11 PER when playing the position this year. Given you didn't even talk about Brewer I think you are going to have Prince there a lot. Deng is have an All-Star year and is currently playing like the second best SF in the Eastern Conference. Young is not having a good year. Prince and Brewer might contain Deng for a couple games but he's going to be throwing up his yearly average or better in 5 games in a seven games series here.

PF matchup: Millsap is having a great year. Not going to argue that. But I don't think people give Humphries nearly the respect they should. I don't care what anyone says, averaging over 10 rebounds per 36 minutes no matter where you play is yeoman's work on the boards and then on top of that to average a double double two years in a row is something. Millsap is playing better than Humphries but not by leaps and bounds. But Brandon Bass is having an exceptional season as a back up and you have Jon Brockman backing up Millsap. I think having quality backup play from Bass gives Cleveland the match up here, barely.

Center matchup. A win for New York. Not going to argue that. But where Howard will be throwing up 21/15/2 numbers I don't think it out of the question to see Bynum throwing up 14/12/2 numbers. Andersen is just a much better inside presence than Bonner but can he cover Bonner outside and stop him from shooting three's at a high rate. Tricky question. Not sure it will make a difference but if Howard or Andersen continually leave Bonner alone outside, Bonner has proven the ability to knock down big threes.

Overall: Even

New York in seven due to home court advantage.

BTW, I think these two teams might be the most similarly built two teams in the draft. Good young top end talent. Two great centers. Two emerging PGs. Tough benchs. Weak at the SG spot. Different but very good PFs. Compare these teams in makeup to any other teams and I think they are the most like each other than any other two teams in the league.

Re: IP Ranks The Pick-Two Teams By Divison (All Divisions Are Up)
« Reply #287 on: March 01, 2012, 04:21:05 PM »

Offline indeedproceed

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And our bench killed yours Jennings, Neal, Miller, Diaw, Singleton.

Neither here nor there.

Jennings V Sessions
Gary Neal V Gerald Hendersen
Mike Miller V Derrick WIlliams
Diaw V Jerebko
Nazr Mo V Robin Lopez

I really wouldn't say your bench 'killed' mine.

In fact, I'd take my bench over yours still. Ya forgot about Gerald Hendersen, and if you're gonna start talking about 'rookies play lately' as important factors, Derrick Williams has been getting 8pts, 4.4 boards, 51% from the field and 42% from deep all in 18 minutes, all in the month of February.

Ya can't just eat the lemons, nick! They're too bitter. Make lemonade!


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Re: IP Ranks The Pick-Two Teams By Divison (All Divisions Are Up)
« Reply #288 on: March 01, 2012, 04:26:01 PM »

Online Roy H.

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Matchup 2.1 (present for Nick)

New York Knicks (1, H) V Cle Cavs (4, A)
Kyle Lowry V Kyrie Irving
Brandon Rush V Landry ‘Clark’ Fields
Tayshaun Prince V Luol Deng
Paul Millsap V Kris Humphries
Dwight Howard V Andrew Bynum
~Bench~
Luke Ridnour V Earl Watson
Klay Thompson V George Hill
Corey Brewer V Sam Young
Jon Brockman V Brandon Bass
Birdman V Matt Bonner

Key Matchup: Kyle Lowry V Kyrie Irving
Kyrie Irving is a heck of a young player. Very gifted scorer, not a bad passer, and a guy with as much or more potential than anyone we’ve seen since Chris Paul and Deron Williams started redefining the position. Kyle Lowry is a bit less of an enigma, but more of a well-rounded player. He’s a better defender, he’s already the best player on a team that looks to have a playoff-spot all but locked up, and his offense is finally coming along. I wouldn’t call this a wash, because I flat out think Lowry is the better player right now, and I think his defense should have a measuring effect against Irving, but since they haven’t played each other yet, I’ve got nothing but conjecture to base that on. Their TS% are about the same, with Irving shooting better from outside, and Lowry passing a little better. Slight edge Lowry.

Key Matchup: Luol Deng V Tayshaun Prince
Of course Deng is the better player right now. Sure he is. I’m not contesting that. Buuuuttt…..look at the numbers when they play each other:
23 games. They’re both clear 3’s, they play roughly the same # of minutes per game (against each other), and they both start. Tayshaun is older, but he’s looked to have aged pretty darn well when it comes to playing against Luol Deng. They score similarly, they rebound similarly, they pass similarly. Guess what? I’m calling this one A WASHHHHHH! Should be a big win for Deng, but Prince has proven he’s capable of playing Deng pretty well over the years (he’s outscored him in every one of the last 3 contests).

Key Matchup: Paul Millsap V Kris Humphries
Well now its my turn to be disappointed. While Millsap has shown that he’s able to score on just about anyone, anytime, anywhere inside the 3pt line, Kris Humphries apparently plays pretty well against Paul Millsap. Yes, they’ve only played 7 times, yes, only one of those times have come when both players are starters and playing 30 minutes or more, but Kris Humphries doesn’t play a whole lot of center, and neither does Paul Millsap. Until we see a clear trend one way or another, I have to think neither player is going to really destroy the other one here, with Millsap generally scoring a couple more points, and Humphries generally getting a couple more boards.

Key-est Match-up Part A: Dwight Howard V Andrew Bynum
Andrew Bynum is having a coming out party this season, and I don’t mean as a cheap-shot artist with questionable motor and a fragile physical makeup. No, I mean as a baller. Bynum is arguably the second best center in the NBA. There is a reason he was taken 1st in the Pick-Two draft.
And Dwight Howard owns him. Against Howard, Bynum commits 4 fouls in 20 minutes, shoots below his career averages while he’s out there, while Howard stays on the floor, and shoots his career #’s even when Bynum is out there. HUGE win for the Knicks.

Key-est Match-Up Part B: Dwight Howard V Matt Bonner
This is a massacre of epic proportions. Krstic is a viable backup center (not against Howard, but I digest..), Bonner is absolutely not. Howard will kill Bonner on defense, and he’ll switch off him when the Cavs have the ball, allowing whoever is playing the 4 to switch onto him while Howard guards one of Humphries/Bass. It’s a trainwreck.

Bench: I don’t think either bench has any super-high impact players, and I don’t think anyone on either bench doesn’t belong there, or is being asked to do more than they’re able. Both benches are populated with able players. Both teams, I feel, have well defined roles for their subs, and I see it as a wash, excepting the center situation.

How I See It Playing Out: Five, Maybe Six competitive games, ending in a Knicks win. They’ve got no answer to Howard, even though the teams 1-4 stack up very evenly.

:o :o Big surprise. :o :o

I was actually expecting a four game sweep. :D

Mr. Stern deigned to allow the refs to give us one or maybe 2 games. Maybe. ;)

Well, at least IP didn't even pretend it was objective.  If Deng = Prince, Lowry > Irving, George Hill and Brandon Bass are also rans, and Howard is much, much better than Bynum, then of course New York wins easily.  Of course, none of those things are even remotely true, but nobody said this was the "objective playoffs based in reality".  It's IP's playoffs, and his team is obviously going to win.


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Re: IP Ranks The Pick-Two Teams By Divison (All Divisions Are Up)
« Reply #289 on: March 01, 2012, 04:31:46 PM »

Offline indeedproceed

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Well, at least IP didn't even pretend it was objective.  If Deng = Prince, Lowry > Irving, George Hill and Brandon Bass are also rans, and Howard is much, much better than Bynum, then of course New York wins easily.  Of course, none of those things are even remotely true, but nobody said this was the "objective playoffs based in reality".  It's IP's playoffs, and his team is obviously going to win.

Scared of the troof. Kyle Lowry is the best player on a playoff team. Kyrie Irving is the best player on a lotto team. Look at the H2h's, Roy! (especially Prince's V Deng)

EDIT: Although, I will say this; Lowry has never played Irving. If Irving torched Lowry like he torched Rondo, I'd have to resort to saying 'Howard makes Lowry's stellar defense blah blah blah' to prove my bias. Glad I didn't have to go there.

"You've gotta respect a 15-percent 3-point shooter. A guy
like that is always lethal." - Evan 'The God' Turner

Re: IP Ranks The Pick-Two Teams By Divison (All Divisions Are Up)
« Reply #290 on: March 01, 2012, 04:36:27 PM »

Online Roy H.

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Well, at least IP didn't even pretend it was objective.  If Deng = Prince, Lowry > Irving, George Hill and Brandon Bass are also rans, and Howard is much, much better than Bynum, then of course New York wins easily.  Of course, none of those things are even remotely true, but nobody said this was the "objective playoffs based in reality".  It's IP's playoffs, and his team is obviously going to win.

Scared of the troof. Kyle Lowry is the best player on a playoff team. Kyrie Irving is the best player on a lotto team. Look at the H2h's, Roy!

Ha.  I'll take the guy who is the better scorer and shooter by a pretty significant margin, and who averages slightly fewer assists despite getting no help from his teammates.   If you asked the 30 NBA GMs who they would prefer between Lowry and Irving, I'm willing to bet you'd get 30 votes for Irving. 


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Re: IP Ranks The Pick-Two Teams By Divison (All Divisions Are Up)
« Reply #291 on: March 01, 2012, 04:38:21 PM »

Offline indeedproceed

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Well, at least IP didn't even pretend it was objective.  If Deng = Prince, Lowry > Irving, George Hill and Brandon Bass are also rans, and Howard is much, much better than Bynum, then of course New York wins easily.  Of course, none of those things are even remotely true, but nobody said this was the "objective playoffs based in reality".  It's IP's playoffs, and his team is obviously going to win.

Scared of the troof. Kyle Lowry is the best player on a playoff team. Kyrie Irving is the best player on a lotto team. Look at the H2h's, Roy!

Ha.  I'll take the guy who is the better scorer and shooter by a pretty significant margin, and who averages slightly fewer assists despite getting no help from his teammates.   If you asked the 30 NBA GMs who they would prefer between Lowry and Irving, I'm willing to bet you'd get 30 votes for Irving. 

This year? For just this year, in the playoffs?

I think you're wrong, Roy.

"You've gotta respect a 15-percent 3-point shooter. A guy
like that is always lethal." - Evan 'The God' Turner

Re: IP Ranks The Pick-Two Teams By Divison (All Divisions Are Up)
« Reply #292 on: March 01, 2012, 04:51:52 PM »

Offline nickagneta

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Well, at least IP didn't even pretend it was objective.  If Deng = Prince, Lowry > Irving, George Hill and Brandon Bass are also rans, and Howard is much, much better than Bynum, then of course New York wins easily.  Of course, none of those things are even remotely true, but nobody said this was the "objective playoffs based in reality".  It's IP's playoffs, and his team is obviously going to win.

Scared of the troof. Kyle Lowry is the best player on a playoff team. Kyrie Irving is the best player on a lotto team. Look at the H2h's, Roy!

Ha.  I'll take the guy who is the better scorer and shooter by a pretty significant margin, and who averages slightly fewer assists despite getting no help from his teammates.   If you asked the 30 NBA GMs who they would prefer between Lowry and Irving, I'm willing to bet you'd get 30 votes for Irving. 

This year? For just this year, in the playoffs?

I think you're wrong, Roy.
Take a look at Kyrie Irving's numbers against the best PGs he has played this year in head to head

Kyrie vs Deron

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/h2h_finder.cgi?request=1&p1=irvinky01&p2=willide01

Kyrie vs Nash

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/h2h_finder.cgi?request=1&p1=irvinky01&p2=nashst01

Kyrie vs Rondo

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/h2h_finder.cgi?request=1&p1=irvinky01&p2=rondora01

He's also 15th in the league in Clutch Pts

http://www.82games.com/1112/CSORT11.HTM


I would take Irving every day of the week and twice on Sundays versus Lowry in a playoff matchup, this year or any year. He plays big versus big time opponents and when it matters most.

Re: IP Ranks The Pick-Two Teams By Divison (All Divisions Are Up)
« Reply #293 on: March 01, 2012, 04:59:00 PM »

Offline indeedproceed

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Probably all wins, too. Lowry, every day of the week and twice on sundays as my leader. He's tougher, he's more mature, he's a better defender. Irving is a heck of a prospect though.

Course you know what they say..'Never trust a rookie' and all that.

Well 'they' don't say that. nickagneta says that. ;)

"You've gotta respect a 15-percent 3-point shooter. A guy
like that is always lethal." - Evan 'The God' Turner

Re: IP Ranks The Pick-Two Teams By Divison (All Divisions Are Up)
« Reply #294 on: March 01, 2012, 05:15:56 PM »

Offline nickagneta

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Probably all wins, too. Lowry, every day of the week and twice on sundays as my leader. He's tougher, he's more mature, he's a better defender. Irving is a heck of a prospect though.

Course you know what they say..'Never trust a rookie' and all that.

Well 'they' don't say that. nickagneta says that. ;)
Yup...say that all the time during CB Drafts when things are unknown.

During Pick 2 Drafts....not so much.

I do think people tend to over rate young talent over proven talent in these things but there comes a time during the Pick 2 when you have to see special stuff happening and admit the talent.

Irving and Rubio fit the bill this year. Have to admit I didn't think Rubio would be this good though he seems to be sliding back to be less and less the more this season goes on.

The year before that everyone was pushing players from that draft but by mid season it was apparent only Cousins and Wall were going to be good for that specific year. George and Monroe have proven to be real in their second years but still, lots of mediocrity after that.

Hey, I like vets. But when you see special talent, you have to admit it and embrace it. Irving is special. Lowry, a bit better than the current average starting PG. Maybe top 12-14 in the league.

« Last Edit: March 01, 2012, 05:29:22 PM by nickagneta »

Re: IP Ranks The Pick-Two Teams By Divison (All Divisions Are Up)
« Reply #295 on: March 01, 2012, 05:21:56 PM »

Offline nickagneta

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Re: IP Ranks The Pick-Two Teams By Divison (All Divisions Are Up)
« Reply #296 on: March 01, 2012, 08:58:25 PM »

Offline StartOrien

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Oh, word. We're doing this again?

Tony Parker / Jeff Teague / Kemba Walker
Paul George / Courtney Lee
Rudy Gay / Trevor Ariza
Zach Randolph / Channing Frye
Marc Gasol / Chuck Hayes / Jason Collins

Re: IP Ranks The Pick-Two Teams By Divison (All Divisions Are Up)
« Reply #297 on: March 01, 2012, 09:02:15 PM »

Offline KCattheStripe

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Greg Monroe is a beast. A. Beast.

Re: IP Ranks The Pick-Two Teams By Divison (All Divisions Are Up)
« Reply #298 on: March 01, 2012, 10:52:39 PM »

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The Warriors want to know why they were 8th in IP's rankings but not shown in the play-off matchups.

Re: IP Ranks The Pick-Two Teams By Divison (All Divisions Are Up)
« Reply #299 on: March 02, 2012, 12:18:17 PM »

Offline Bahku

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Thanks, IP, for all the work you've done on this draft, and the write-ups/analysis of my team.

I hope you know that juat because my schedule doesn't always allow me to be the most involved team GM, doesn't mean I'm any less appreciative or excited to be a part.

I've learned a lot from these forays into fantasy sports, and beyond the pure fun of putting teams together, I've acquired a better knowledge of the game, the players, and my fellow GMs ... nobody here sees things the same, and those different perspectives are what really makes these things hum.

So thanks again for all the time and effort, (which was considerable), and for the chance to join in.

Oh, one last thing ... no way a team with CP3 and The Griffster at the core is eliminated in the first round ... mmmaaaaaaddddnnnneeesss!!!

New England Ninjas rule!!

;D
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