Author Topic: Why Kawhi Leonard...we already have him  (Read 22120 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Re: Why Kawhi Leonard...we already have him
« Reply #150 on: June 17, 2018, 06:44:12 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

  • Robert Parish
  • *********************
  • Posts: 21238
  • Tommy Points: 2016
We have to ask ourselves if Kawhi was playing in the 7th game vs the Cavs this year and not Brown would he have been better for us?

I think Ainge knows he needs his defense on Bron, KD and Harden...while getting 20 himself.

Can Brown do that? I think he can he's not there yet.

As a 21 year old, Brown averaged 18 points and 5 rebounds, while defending the other team's best player. He also had a bum hamstring.

As a 21 year old, Leonard averaged 14 points and 9 rebounds, while defending the other team's best player.

As a 22 year old, Leonard averaged 14 points and 7 rebounds, while defending the other team's best player. This run included a 4 point game, a 7 point game, and a 6 point game. It also included two 9 point games in the finals.

As a 23 year old, the Spurs were eliminated by the Clippers in the first round of the playoffs. Leonard had 12 points and 13 points in games 6 and 7, both of which were losses.

The concept that, because Brown struggled in game 7, it means his ceiling isn't as high as Leonard, is flawed.

We're not trading for Kawhi at 21, 22, or 23. If Kawhi is healthy, he is better than Brown, and any reasonable expectation of what Brown turns into. I have high hopes for Brown, but Leonard is a two time DPOY and MVP candidate

Disagree but neither of us will say anything new and neither of us will convince the other.

The argument that was made (and has been made in other places) was regarding Jaylen's upside due to his poor last game. That argument is flawed. That was my only point.

No, your premise is flawed. I said that last game vs Cavs because ultimately that's what all this boils down too. Getting Kawhi now is what's important. We know Brown will eventually get better but how much is the question.

In order for Ainge to regret this trade Brown would have to be the DPOY multiple times, and be a top 5 player in the league within 5 years. Is that possible?
Of course its possible that Brown could be that good, but your point is that the odds are that he won't.

I would say that Jaylen's odds of becoming an occasional all star are about 25%
His odds of being Paul George good are about 50%
His odds of being top 5 good are about 25%

Jaylen has a huge upside.

You are also ignoring the very real possibility that Kawhi Leonard doesn't have problems going forward. Last year was disturbing on several levels. It is hardly a sure bet that he comes back as if nothing had happened. There is a very real possibility that Jaylen is the better player in a year or two.
you are basically saying there is a 75% chance brown ends up Paul George at the least. 

That’s wildly optimistic.  The most likely scenario, by far, is that he peaks out as a fringe star that never makes an allstar team.

Brown might end up terrific, but his ceiling is stil lower than prime kawhi.  Best case scenario he ends up like jimmy butler.

No one has any clue what Jaylen Brown's ceiling is or what his best case scenario is.
lots of players had high ceilings they never reached.  His highest possible ceiling is probably jimmy butler. A mid-level expectation for him is probably André Iguodala.  Still a solid chance he ends up worse.
What are you actually basing these projections on? He doesn’t play like Jimmy Butler nor Iguodala

Yeah, I don't see any similarities, there, either. I tend to think that Brown, at least at this point, is a carbon copy of Jason Richardson.

Not sure as to how I feel about that, lol ;D.
I think he's definitely closer to JRich, but more of a defender and less of a passer. Although JRich came into the league at 21, so it might be a bit unfair to compare them for a couple of years
Agreed.  JRich is a reasonable ceiling for him.  Fringe star who put up big numbers, but never made an all-star team. 

Good call.  The question then becomes whether or not you think it's worthwhile to trade for a "top 5" player like Kawhi at the expense of a player who projects as Jason Richardson in a few years?
That's only the question if you ignore all context. Kawhi is, or at least was, a top 5 player, but he is injured and may never be that guy again. He is also an impending free agent who has expressed a desire to play in LA (aka as far from Boston as possible, really). JB is a guy who projects to be Richardson-esque, but is cost-controlled for the foreseeable future, is invested in Boston, is a leader of this team and is a healthy 21 year old.
I totally hear you and I agree that giving up a guy with a Richardson ceiling (or as I've heard others suggest - a Wally Szczerbiak ceiling) for an MVP-caliber player is a no-brainer, but when you consider that MVP-caliber player has injury concerns and might be a rental, having multiple years of a cost-controlled young player with a Wally Szczerbiak ceiling has a lot of appeal.

Where was this? Reddit?
For instance... my bubble tea guy, who has a proven track record of making a mean bubble tea while proving spot-on NBA insight, tells me jaylen optimistically projects as a smaller Wally Szczerbiak.

Based on what? Szerbiak a put up 14 points in his second NBA season roughly the same kind of year as Jaylen. He also turned 24 that year. Jaylen is way ahead of where Szerbiak was as a player at his age. Szerbiak is his floor. I have to reiterate this, but young players who are good at 21 get better, often much better. Weather its the Butlrt, George, Hayward, Kawhi ive mentioned. Or Szerbiak. Or Harrison Barnes. Or otto Porter. You can say his ceiling is Szerbiak but when hes better, younger than Szerbiak was its just not a credible comparison
i think what they are saying is the best case scenario Jaylen ends up a fringe star like Wally szczerbiak. Obviously we have several more years before we see if he stays at his current level, improves to an Otto porter level, or reaches his Wally Sczerbiak/J-Rich ceiling.  Personally I think there’s a chance he exceeds reasonable expectations and develops into a jimmy butler.

Your comparisons are utterly ridiculous.

It seems as though you're still mad that a very limited Jaylen Brown, maybe not even at 50%, dominated your Sixers. The guy averaged 15.3 PPG, in just 27 MPG, on 53.5% from the field and 50% from distance. Now imagine him healthy. Now imagine him as he continues to get better. Scary stuff, huh? I don't blame you for being bitter that the Sixers don't have anyone like him on their roster. Bitterness is your sole motivation when you bring Wally, a player that most Celtics fans don't think highly of.
im just relaying what others have said Jaylen’s ceiling is.  Personally I think more realistically his ceiling is poor man’s Dario Saric.

JK

The point is whether you see his ceiling as battier, j-rich, rudy gay, Wally or corey maggette (another name I commonly seen thrown around), there’s been countless quality players like jaylen who peaked out as fringe stars.  All those guys averaged 20+ points in their peak and generally fell short of making allstar teams. Jaylen will be our 4th option next season if everyone is healthy. He’s shown progress but let’s not get ahead of ourselves in pretending a guy who averaged 14 points at age 21 is a guaranteed mvp candidate.  Usually superstars are already performing as superstar at that age.  He’s a quality starter right now and that’s it.

The thing is man those guys arent his ceiling, they are the floor. Guys who have a similar season to Jaylen at a similar age very rarely end up as anything less than the "Fringe Star" level you describe. Maggete at 21 average 10 points a game. Richardson had a similar season on a 21 win team (that tends to inflate scoring). Szerbiak was 23 when he average 14 points a game. Even Jeff Green had the bad luck to literally require heart surgery. Otto porter didnt average 14 till this last year. Harrison barnes took till his 5th age 24 season to hit 19. So ya, Jaylen season was arguably more impressive or at a younger age than any of those guys, that would tend to indicate hes gonna be AT LEAST that good. Thats typically how the age/ improvement curve works. Now I agree he likely wont reach Kawhi levels but
history would seem to indicate thats his absolute ceilinbg while Rudy Gay (or Richardson, ie that level) is the floor. Again, he compares favorably with Hayward, George at his age. So I dont think solid all star fringe all nba is an unreasonable middle ish outcome.

his floor is 12-15 point scorer with a limited offensive game, solid defense, and poor free throw shooting.

Re: Why Kawhi Leonard...we already have him
« Reply #151 on: June 17, 2018, 06:46:09 PM »

Offline Eddie20

  • Don Nelson
  • ********
  • Posts: 8497
  • Tommy Points: 975
We have to ask ourselves if Kawhi was playing in the 7th game vs the Cavs this year and not Brown would he have been better for us?

I think Ainge knows he needs his defense on Bron, KD and Harden...while getting 20 himself.

Can Brown do that? I think he can he's not there yet.

As a 21 year old, Brown averaged 18 points and 5 rebounds, while defending the other team's best player. He also had a bum hamstring.

As a 21 year old, Leonard averaged 14 points and 9 rebounds, while defending the other team's best player.

As a 22 year old, Leonard averaged 14 points and 7 rebounds, while defending the other team's best player. This run included a 4 point game, a 7 point game, and a 6 point game. It also included two 9 point games in the finals.

As a 23 year old, the Spurs were eliminated by the Clippers in the first round of the playoffs. Leonard had 12 points and 13 points in games 6 and 7, both of which were losses.

The concept that, because Brown struggled in game 7, it means his ceiling isn't as high as Leonard, is flawed.

We're not trading for Kawhi at 21, 22, or 23. If Kawhi is healthy, he is better than Brown, and any reasonable expectation of what Brown turns into. I have high hopes for Brown, but Leonard is a two time DPOY and MVP candidate

Disagree but neither of us will say anything new and neither of us will convince the other.

The argument that was made (and has been made in other places) was regarding Jaylen's upside due to his poor last game. That argument is flawed. That was my only point.

No, your premise is flawed. I said that last game vs Cavs because ultimately that's what all this boils down too. Getting Kawhi now is what's important. We know Brown will eventually get better but how much is the question.

In order for Ainge to regret this trade Brown would have to be the DPOY multiple times, and be a top 5 player in the league within 5 years. Is that possible?
Of course its possible that Brown could be that good, but your point is that the odds are that he won't.

I would say that Jaylen's odds of becoming an occasional all star are about 25%
His odds of being Paul George good are about 50%
His odds of being top 5 good are about 25%

Jaylen has a huge upside.

You are also ignoring the very real possibility that Kawhi Leonard doesn't have problems going forward. Last year was disturbing on several levels. It is hardly a sure bet that he comes back as if nothing had happened. There is a very real possibility that Jaylen is the better player in a year or two.
you are basically saying there is a 75% chance brown ends up Paul George at the least. 

That’s wildly optimistic.  The most likely scenario, by far, is that he peaks out as a fringe star that never makes an allstar team.

Brown might end up terrific, but his ceiling is stil lower than prime kawhi.  Best case scenario he ends up like jimmy butler.

No one has any clue what Jaylen Brown's ceiling is or what his best case scenario is.
lots of players had high ceilings they never reached.  His highest possible ceiling is probably jimmy butler. A mid-level expectation for him is probably André Iguodala.  Still a solid chance he ends up worse.
What are you actually basing these projections on? He doesn’t play like Jimmy Butler nor Iguodala

Yeah, I don't see any similarities, there, either. I tend to think that Brown, at least at this point, is a carbon copy of Jason Richardson.

Not sure as to how I feel about that, lol ;D.
I think he's definitely closer to JRich, but more of a defender and less of a passer. Although JRich came into the league at 21, so it might be a bit unfair to compare them for a couple of years
Agreed.  JRich is a reasonable ceiling for him.  Fringe star who put up big numbers, but never made an all-star team. 

Good call.  The question then becomes whether or not you think it's worthwhile to trade for a "top 5" player like Kawhi at the expense of a player who projects as Jason Richardson in a few years?
That's only the question if you ignore all context. Kawhi is, or at least was, a top 5 player, but he is injured and may never be that guy again. He is also an impending free agent who has expressed a desire to play in LA (aka as far from Boston as possible, really). JB is a guy who projects to be Richardson-esque, but is cost-controlled for the foreseeable future, is invested in Boston, is a leader of this team and is a healthy 21 year old.
I totally hear you and I agree that giving up a guy with a Richardson ceiling (or as I've heard others suggest - a Wally Szczerbiak ceiling) for an MVP-caliber player is a no-brainer, but when you consider that MVP-caliber player has injury concerns and might be a rental, having multiple years of a cost-controlled young player with a Wally Szczerbiak ceiling has a lot of appeal.

Where was this? Reddit?
For instance... my bubble tea guy, who has a proven track record of making a mean bubble tea while proving spot-on NBA insight, tells me jaylen optimistically projects as a smaller Wally Szczerbiak.

Based on what? Szerbiak a put up 14 points in his second NBA season roughly the same kind of year as Jaylen. He also turned 24 that year. Jaylen is way ahead of where Szerbiak was as a player at his age. Szerbiak is his floor. I have to reiterate this, but young players who are good at 21 get better, often much better. Weather its the Butlrt, George, Hayward, Kawhi ive mentioned. Or Szerbiak. Or Harrison Barnes. Or otto Porter. You can say his ceiling is Szerbiak but when hes better, younger than Szerbiak was its just not a credible comparison
i think what they are saying is the best case scenario Jaylen ends up a fringe star like Wally szczerbiak. Obviously we have several more years before we see if he stays at his current level, improves to an Otto porter level, or reaches his Wally Sczerbiak/J-Rich ceiling.  Personally I think there’s a chance he exceeds reasonable expectations and develops into a jimmy butler.

Your comparisons are utterly ridiculous.

It seems as though you're still mad that a very limited Jaylen Brown, maybe not even at 50%, dominated your Sixers. The guy averaged 15.3 PPG, in just 27 MPG, on 53.5% from the field and 50% from distance. Now imagine him healthy. Now imagine him as he continues to get better. Scary stuff, huh? I don't blame you for being bitter that the Sixers don't have anyone like him on their roster. Bitterness is your sole motivation when you bring Wally, a player that most Celtics fans don't think highly of.
Jaylen will be our 4th option next season if everyone is healthy.

Isn't that scary? Think about it, the 2 guys that absolutely destroyed the Sixers are going to be our 4th and 5th offensive options. How do you even hope to cope with that?
Eddie, careful.  Philly overachieved in year 1 of the dynasty and could realistically add kawhi and Lebron/George this summer.  Hard to imagine anyone outbidding a Fultz + #10 + Covington offer for kawhi.

You know just because you keep repeating that isn't going to make it true.

Where does Fultz even go in a re-draft? Value has plummeted badly in the last 12 months. Not only can he not shoot (which is a major problem in today's game), but the guy is petrified to take a perimeter shot. One more bad season, which I wouldn't rule out, and where is his value then?

These guys get drafted ahead of Fultz:
Tatum
Mitchell
Ball
Markannen
Jackson
Fox
Smith
Kuzma

Re: Why Kawhi Leonard...we already have him
« Reply #152 on: June 17, 2018, 06:46:36 PM »

Online Phantom255x

  • Larry Bird
  • *****************************
  • Posts: 29510
  • Tommy Points: 2923
  • On To Banner 18!
We have to ask ourselves if Kawhi was playing in the 7th game vs the Cavs this year and not Brown would he have been better for us?

I think Ainge knows he needs his defense on Bron, KD and Harden...while getting 20 himself.

Can Brown do that? I think he can he's not there yet.

As a 21 year old, Brown averaged 18 points and 5 rebounds, while defending the other team's best player. He also had a bum hamstring.

As a 21 year old, Leonard averaged 14 points and 9 rebounds, while defending the other team's best player.

As a 22 year old, Leonard averaged 14 points and 7 rebounds, while defending the other team's best player. This run included a 4 point game, a 7 point game, and a 6 point game. It also included two 9 point games in the finals.

As a 23 year old, the Spurs were eliminated by the Clippers in the first round of the playoffs. Leonard had 12 points and 13 points in games 6 and 7, both of which were losses.

The concept that, because Brown struggled in game 7, it means his ceiling isn't as high as Leonard, is flawed.

We're not trading for Kawhi at 21, 22, or 23. If Kawhi is healthy, he is better than Brown, and any reasonable expectation of what Brown turns into. I have high hopes for Brown, but Leonard is a two time DPOY and MVP candidate

Disagree but neither of us will say anything new and neither of us will convince the other.

The argument that was made (and has been made in other places) was regarding Jaylen's upside due to his poor last game. That argument is flawed. That was my only point.

No, your premise is flawed. I said that last game vs Cavs because ultimately that's what all this boils down too. Getting Kawhi now is what's important. We know Brown will eventually get better but how much is the question.

In order for Ainge to regret this trade Brown would have to be the DPOY multiple times, and be a top 5 player in the league within 5 years. Is that possible?
Of course its possible that Brown could be that good, but your point is that the odds are that he won't.

I would say that Jaylen's odds of becoming an occasional all star are about 25%
His odds of being Paul George good are about 50%
His odds of being top 5 good are about 25%

Jaylen has a huge upside.

You are also ignoring the very real possibility that Kawhi Leonard doesn't have problems going forward. Last year was disturbing on several levels. It is hardly a sure bet that he comes back as if nothing had happened. There is a very real possibility that Jaylen is the better player in a year or two.
you are basically saying there is a 75% chance brown ends up Paul George at the least. 

That’s wildly optimistic.  The most likely scenario, by far, is that he peaks out as a fringe star that never makes an allstar team.

Brown might end up terrific, but his ceiling is stil lower than prime kawhi.  Best case scenario he ends up like jimmy butler.

No one has any clue what Jaylen Brown's ceiling is or what his best case scenario is.
lots of players had high ceilings they never reached.  His highest possible ceiling is probably jimmy butler. A mid-level expectation for him is probably André Iguodala.  Still a solid chance he ends up worse.
What are you actually basing these projections on? He doesn’t play like Jimmy Butler nor Iguodala

Yeah, I don't see any similarities, there, either. I tend to think that Brown, at least at this point, is a carbon copy of Jason Richardson.

Not sure as to how I feel about that, lol ;D.
I think he's definitely closer to JRich, but more of a defender and less of a passer. Although JRich came into the league at 21, so it might be a bit unfair to compare them for a couple of years
Agreed.  JRich is a reasonable ceiling for him.  Fringe star who put up big numbers, but never made an all-star team. 

Good call.  The question then becomes whether or not you think it's worthwhile to trade for a "top 5" player like Kawhi at the expense of a player who projects as Jason Richardson in a few years?
That's only the question if you ignore all context. Kawhi is, or at least was, a top 5 player, but he is injured and may never be that guy again. He is also an impending free agent who has expressed a desire to play in LA (aka as far from Boston as possible, really). JB is a guy who projects to be Richardson-esque, but is cost-controlled for the foreseeable future, is invested in Boston, is a leader of this team and is a healthy 21 year old.
I totally hear you and I agree that giving up a guy with a Richardson ceiling (or as I've heard others suggest - a Wally Szczerbiak ceiling) for an MVP-caliber player is a no-brainer, but when you consider that MVP-caliber player has injury concerns and might be a rental, having multiple years of a cost-controlled young player with a Wally Szczerbiak ceiling has a lot of appeal.

Where was this? Reddit?
For instance... my bubble tea guy, who has a proven track record of making a mean bubble tea while proving spot-on NBA insight, tells me jaylen optimistically projects as a smaller Wally Szczerbiak.

Based on what? Szerbiak a put up 14 points in his second NBA season roughly the same kind of year as Jaylen. He also turned 24 that year. Jaylen is way ahead of where Szerbiak was as a player at his age. Szerbiak is his floor. I have to reiterate this, but young players who are good at 21 get better, often much better. Weather its the Butlrt, George, Hayward, Kawhi ive mentioned. Or Szerbiak. Or Harrison Barnes. Or otto Porter. You can say his ceiling is Szerbiak but when hes better, younger than Szerbiak was its just not a credible comparison
i think what they are saying is the best case scenario Jaylen ends up a fringe star like Wally szczerbiak. Obviously we have several more years before we see if he stays at his current level, improves to an Otto porter level, or reaches his Wally Sczerbiak/J-Rich ceiling.  Personally I think there’s a chance he exceeds reasonable expectations and develops into a jimmy butler.

Your comparisons are utterly ridiculous.

It seems as though you're still mad that a very limited Jaylen Brown, maybe not even at 50%, dominated your Sixers. The guy averaged 15.3 PPG, in just 27 MPG, on 53.5% from the field and 50% from distance. Now imagine him healthy. Now imagine him as he continues to get better. Scary stuff, huh? I don't blame you for being bitter that the Sixers don't have anyone like him on their roster. Bitterness is your sole motivation when you bring Wally, a player that most Celtics fans don't think highly of.
Jaylen will be our 4th option next season if everyone is healthy.

Isn't that scary? Think about it, the 2 guys that absolutely destroyed the Sixers are going to be our 4th and 5th offensive options. How do you even hope to cope with that?
Eddie, careful.  Philly overachieved in year 1 of the dynasty and could realistically add kawhi and Lebron/George this summer.  Hard to imagine anyone outbidding a Fultz + #10 + Covington offer for kawhi.

You really think the Spurs, after dealing with all they did with Leonard this season, would take back Fultz as a primary piece? The same Fultz that apparently had to change his entire shooting form and was injured virtually the entire season. Wow lol. Just wow. Fultz might be an elite prospect but RIGHT NOW, his trade value is not that high. He can be a piece in a trade but if he's the primary piece, then good luck. PHI would certainly have to add Saric to that and probably another pick.
Philly can’t give up a superstar prospect like Fultz without getting assurance kawhi will re-sign, but yeah that seems to be the offer to beat.

Wow..

"Tough times never last, but tough people do." - Robert H. Schuller

Re: Why Kawhi Leonard...we already have him
« Reply #153 on: June 17, 2018, 06:49:15 PM »

Offline Eddie20

  • Don Nelson
  • ********
  • Posts: 8497
  • Tommy Points: 975
We have to ask ourselves if Kawhi was playing in the 7th game vs the Cavs this year and not Brown would he have been better for us?

I think Ainge knows he needs his defense on Bron, KD and Harden...while getting 20 himself.

Can Brown do that? I think he can he's not there yet.

As a 21 year old, Brown averaged 18 points and 5 rebounds, while defending the other team's best player. He also had a bum hamstring.

As a 21 year old, Leonard averaged 14 points and 9 rebounds, while defending the other team's best player.

As a 22 year old, Leonard averaged 14 points and 7 rebounds, while defending the other team's best player. This run included a 4 point game, a 7 point game, and a 6 point game. It also included two 9 point games in the finals.

As a 23 year old, the Spurs were eliminated by the Clippers in the first round of the playoffs. Leonard had 12 points and 13 points in games 6 and 7, both of which were losses.

The concept that, because Brown struggled in game 7, it means his ceiling isn't as high as Leonard, is flawed.

We're not trading for Kawhi at 21, 22, or 23. If Kawhi is healthy, he is better than Brown, and any reasonable expectation of what Brown turns into. I have high hopes for Brown, but Leonard is a two time DPOY and MVP candidate

Disagree but neither of us will say anything new and neither of us will convince the other.

The argument that was made (and has been made in other places) was regarding Jaylen's upside due to his poor last game. That argument is flawed. That was my only point.

No, your premise is flawed. I said that last game vs Cavs because ultimately that's what all this boils down too. Getting Kawhi now is what's important. We know Brown will eventually get better but how much is the question.

In order for Ainge to regret this trade Brown would have to be the DPOY multiple times, and be a top 5 player in the league within 5 years. Is that possible?
Of course its possible that Brown could be that good, but your point is that the odds are that he won't.

I would say that Jaylen's odds of becoming an occasional all star are about 25%
His odds of being Paul George good are about 50%
His odds of being top 5 good are about 25%

Jaylen has a huge upside.

You are also ignoring the very real possibility that Kawhi Leonard doesn't have problems going forward. Last year was disturbing on several levels. It is hardly a sure bet that he comes back as if nothing had happened. There is a very real possibility that Jaylen is the better player in a year or two.
you are basically saying there is a 75% chance brown ends up Paul George at the least. 

That’s wildly optimistic.  The most likely scenario, by far, is that he peaks out as a fringe star that never makes an allstar team.

Brown might end up terrific, but his ceiling is stil lower than prime kawhi.  Best case scenario he ends up like jimmy butler.

No one has any clue what Jaylen Brown's ceiling is or what his best case scenario is.
lots of players had high ceilings they never reached.  His highest possible ceiling is probably jimmy butler. A mid-level expectation for him is probably André Iguodala.  Still a solid chance he ends up worse.
What are you actually basing these projections on? He doesn’t play like Jimmy Butler nor Iguodala

Yeah, I don't see any similarities, there, either. I tend to think that Brown, at least at this point, is a carbon copy of Jason Richardson.

Not sure as to how I feel about that, lol ;D.
I think he's definitely closer to JRich, but more of a defender and less of a passer. Although JRich came into the league at 21, so it might be a bit unfair to compare them for a couple of years
Agreed.  JRich is a reasonable ceiling for him.  Fringe star who put up big numbers, but never made an all-star team. 

Good call.  The question then becomes whether or not you think it's worthwhile to trade for a "top 5" player like Kawhi at the expense of a player who projects as Jason Richardson in a few years?
That's only the question if you ignore all context. Kawhi is, or at least was, a top 5 player, but he is injured and may never be that guy again. He is also an impending free agent who has expressed a desire to play in LA (aka as far from Boston as possible, really). JB is a guy who projects to be Richardson-esque, but is cost-controlled for the foreseeable future, is invested in Boston, is a leader of this team and is a healthy 21 year old.
I totally hear you and I agree that giving up a guy with a Richardson ceiling (or as I've heard others suggest - a Wally Szczerbiak ceiling) for an MVP-caliber player is a no-brainer, but when you consider that MVP-caliber player has injury concerns and might be a rental, having multiple years of a cost-controlled young player with a Wally Szczerbiak ceiling has a lot of appeal.

Where was this? Reddit?
For instance... my bubble tea guy, who has a proven track record of making a mean bubble tea while proving spot-on NBA insight, tells me jaylen optimistically projects as a smaller Wally Szczerbiak.

Based on what? Szerbiak a put up 14 points in his second NBA season roughly the same kind of year as Jaylen. He also turned 24 that year. Jaylen is way ahead of where Szerbiak was as a player at his age. Szerbiak is his floor. I have to reiterate this, but young players who are good at 21 get better, often much better. Weather its the Butlrt, George, Hayward, Kawhi ive mentioned. Or Szerbiak. Or Harrison Barnes. Or otto Porter. You can say his ceiling is Szerbiak but when hes better, younger than Szerbiak was its just not a credible comparison
i think what they are saying is the best case scenario Jaylen ends up a fringe star like Wally szczerbiak. Obviously we have several more years before we see if he stays at his current level, improves to an Otto porter level, or reaches his Wally Sczerbiak/J-Rich ceiling.  Personally I think there’s a chance he exceeds reasonable expectations and develops into a jimmy butler.

Your comparisons are utterly ridiculous.

It seems as though you're still mad that a very limited Jaylen Brown, maybe not even at 50%, dominated your Sixers. The guy averaged 15.3 PPG, in just 27 MPG, on 53.5% from the field and 50% from distance. Now imagine him healthy. Now imagine him as he continues to get better. Scary stuff, huh? I don't blame you for being bitter that the Sixers don't have anyone like him on their roster. Bitterness is your sole motivation when you bring Wally, a player that most Celtics fans don't think highly of.
Jaylen will be our 4th option next season if everyone is healthy.

Isn't that scary? Think about it, the 2 guys that absolutely destroyed the Sixers are going to be our 4th and 5th offensive options. How do you even hope to cope with that?
Eddie, careful.  Philly overachieved in year 1 of the dynasty and could realistically add kawhi and Lebron/George this summer.  Hard to imagine anyone outbidding a Fultz + #10 + Covington offer for kawhi.

You really think the Spurs, after dealing with all they did with Leonard this season, would take back Fultz as a primary piece? The same Fultz that apparently had to change his entire shooting form and was injured virtually the entire season. Wow lol. Just wow. Fultz might be an elite prospect but RIGHT NOW, his trade value is not that high. He can be a piece in a trade but if he's the primary piece, then good luck. PHI would certainly have to add Saric to that and probably another pick.
Philly can’t give up a superstar prospect like Fultz without getting assurance kawhi will re-sign, but yeah that seems to be the offer to beat.

You can do a better job getting a rise out of people without having them question if you even watch basketball.

Re: Why Kawhi Leonard...we already have him
« Reply #154 on: June 17, 2018, 06:51:58 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

  • Robert Parish
  • *********************
  • Posts: 21238
  • Tommy Points: 2016
We have to ask ourselves if Kawhi was playing in the 7th game vs the Cavs this year and not Brown would he have been better for us?

I think Ainge knows he needs his defense on Bron, KD and Harden...while getting 20 himself.

Can Brown do that? I think he can he's not there yet.

As a 21 year old, Brown averaged 18 points and 5 rebounds, while defending the other team's best player. He also had a bum hamstring.

As a 21 year old, Leonard averaged 14 points and 9 rebounds, while defending the other team's best player.

As a 22 year old, Leonard averaged 14 points and 7 rebounds, while defending the other team's best player. This run included a 4 point game, a 7 point game, and a 6 point game. It also included two 9 point games in the finals.

As a 23 year old, the Spurs were eliminated by the Clippers in the first round of the playoffs. Leonard had 12 points and 13 points in games 6 and 7, both of which were losses.

The concept that, because Brown struggled in game 7, it means his ceiling isn't as high as Leonard, is flawed.

We're not trading for Kawhi at 21, 22, or 23. If Kawhi is healthy, he is better than Brown, and any reasonable expectation of what Brown turns into. I have high hopes for Brown, but Leonard is a two time DPOY and MVP candidate

Disagree but neither of us will say anything new and neither of us will convince the other.

The argument that was made (and has been made in other places) was regarding Jaylen's upside due to his poor last game. That argument is flawed. That was my only point.

No, your premise is flawed. I said that last game vs Cavs because ultimately that's what all this boils down too. Getting Kawhi now is what's important. We know Brown will eventually get better but how much is the question.

In order for Ainge to regret this trade Brown would have to be the DPOY multiple times, and be a top 5 player in the league within 5 years. Is that possible?
Of course its possible that Brown could be that good, but your point is that the odds are that he won't.

I would say that Jaylen's odds of becoming an occasional all star are about 25%
His odds of being Paul George good are about 50%
His odds of being top 5 good are about 25%

Jaylen has a huge upside.

You are also ignoring the very real possibility that Kawhi Leonard doesn't have problems going forward. Last year was disturbing on several levels. It is hardly a sure bet that he comes back as if nothing had happened. There is a very real possibility that Jaylen is the better player in a year or two.
you are basically saying there is a 75% chance brown ends up Paul George at the least. 

That’s wildly optimistic.  The most likely scenario, by far, is that he peaks out as a fringe star that never makes an allstar team.

Brown might end up terrific, but his ceiling is stil lower than prime kawhi.  Best case scenario he ends up like jimmy butler.

No one has any clue what Jaylen Brown's ceiling is or what his best case scenario is.
lots of players had high ceilings they never reached.  His highest possible ceiling is probably jimmy butler. A mid-level expectation for him is probably André Iguodala.  Still a solid chance he ends up worse.
What are you actually basing these projections on? He doesn’t play like Jimmy Butler nor Iguodala

Yeah, I don't see any similarities, there, either. I tend to think that Brown, at least at this point, is a carbon copy of Jason Richardson.

Not sure as to how I feel about that, lol ;D.
I think he's definitely closer to JRich, but more of a defender and less of a passer. Although JRich came into the league at 21, so it might be a bit unfair to compare them for a couple of years
Agreed.  JRich is a reasonable ceiling for him.  Fringe star who put up big numbers, but never made an all-star team. 

Good call.  The question then becomes whether or not you think it's worthwhile to trade for a "top 5" player like Kawhi at the expense of a player who projects as Jason Richardson in a few years?
That's only the question if you ignore all context. Kawhi is, or at least was, a top 5 player, but he is injured and may never be that guy again. He is also an impending free agent who has expressed a desire to play in LA (aka as far from Boston as possible, really). JB is a guy who projects to be Richardson-esque, but is cost-controlled for the foreseeable future, is invested in Boston, is a leader of this team and is a healthy 21 year old.
I totally hear you and I agree that giving up a guy with a Richardson ceiling (or as I've heard others suggest - a Wally Szczerbiak ceiling) for an MVP-caliber player is a no-brainer, but when you consider that MVP-caliber player has injury concerns and might be a rental, having multiple years of a cost-controlled young player with a Wally Szczerbiak ceiling has a lot of appeal.

Where was this? Reddit?
For instance... my bubble tea guy, who has a proven track record of making a mean bubble tea while proving spot-on NBA insight, tells me jaylen optimistically projects as a smaller Wally Szczerbiak.

Based on what? Szerbiak a put up 14 points in his second NBA season roughly the same kind of year as Jaylen. He also turned 24 that year. Jaylen is way ahead of where Szerbiak was as a player at his age. Szerbiak is his floor. I have to reiterate this, but young players who are good at 21 get better, often much better. Weather its the Butlrt, George, Hayward, Kawhi ive mentioned. Or Szerbiak. Or Harrison Barnes. Or otto Porter. You can say his ceiling is Szerbiak but when hes better, younger than Szerbiak was its just not a credible comparison
i think what they are saying is the best case scenario Jaylen ends up a fringe star like Wally szczerbiak. Obviously we have several more years before we see if he stays at his current level, improves to an Otto porter level, or reaches his Wally Sczerbiak/J-Rich ceiling.  Personally I think there’s a chance he exceeds reasonable expectations and develops into a jimmy butler.

Your comparisons are utterly ridiculous.

It seems as though you're still mad that a very limited Jaylen Brown, maybe not even at 50%, dominated your Sixers. The guy averaged 15.3 PPG, in just 27 MPG, on 53.5% from the field and 50% from distance. Now imagine him healthy. Now imagine him as he continues to get better. Scary stuff, huh? I don't blame you for being bitter that the Sixers don't have anyone like him on their roster. Bitterness is your sole motivation when you bring Wally, a player that most Celtics fans don't think highly of.
Jaylen will be our 4th option next season if everyone is healthy.

Isn't that scary? Think about it, the 2 guys that absolutely destroyed the Sixers are going to be our 4th and 5th offensive options. How do you even hope to cope with that?
Eddie, careful.  Philly overachieved in year 1 of the dynasty and could realistically add kawhi and Lebron/George this summer.  Hard to imagine anyone outbidding a Fultz + #10 + Covington offer for kawhi.

You really think the Spurs, after dealing with all they did with Leonard this season, would take back Fultz as a primary piece? The same Fultz that apparently had to change his entire shooting form and was injured virtually the entire season. Wow lol. Just wow. Fultz might be an elite prospect but RIGHT NOW, his trade value is not that high. He can be a piece in a trade but if he's the primary piece, then good luck. PHI would certainly have to add Saric to that and probably another pick.
Philly can’t give up a superstar prospect like Fultz without getting assurance kawhi will re-sign, but yeah that seems to be the offer to beat.

Wow..


reminds me of when the majority of this forum said they wouldn’t give up a 2nd rounder for Embiid. This isn’t really a place for taking the long view.

My cat is like this.  If there isn’t any food in her bowl she thinks she’s going to starve to death. Every night before dinner time she looks at me with her puppy dog eyes like I’m letting her die.  It’s like, dude calm down - food will be in that bowl soon.
« Last Edit: June 17, 2018, 06:57:01 PM by LarBrd33 »

Re: Why Kawhi Leonard...we already have him
« Reply #155 on: June 17, 2018, 06:54:39 PM »

Online Phantom255x

  • Larry Bird
  • *****************************
  • Posts: 29510
  • Tommy Points: 2923
  • On To Banner 18!
We have to ask ourselves if Kawhi was playing in the 7th game vs the Cavs this year and not Brown would he have been better for us?

I think Ainge knows he needs his defense on Bron, KD and Harden...while getting 20 himself.

Can Brown do that? I think he can he's not there yet.

As a 21 year old, Brown averaged 18 points and 5 rebounds, while defending the other team's best player. He also had a bum hamstring.

As a 21 year old, Leonard averaged 14 points and 9 rebounds, while defending the other team's best player.

As a 22 year old, Leonard averaged 14 points and 7 rebounds, while defending the other team's best player. This run included a 4 point game, a 7 point game, and a 6 point game. It also included two 9 point games in the finals.

As a 23 year old, the Spurs were eliminated by the Clippers in the first round of the playoffs. Leonard had 12 points and 13 points in games 6 and 7, both of which were losses.

The concept that, because Brown struggled in game 7, it means his ceiling isn't as high as Leonard, is flawed.

We're not trading for Kawhi at 21, 22, or 23. If Kawhi is healthy, he is better than Brown, and any reasonable expectation of what Brown turns into. I have high hopes for Brown, but Leonard is a two time DPOY and MVP candidate

Disagree but neither of us will say anything new and neither of us will convince the other.

The argument that was made (and has been made in other places) was regarding Jaylen's upside due to his poor last game. That argument is flawed. That was my only point.

No, your premise is flawed. I said that last game vs Cavs because ultimately that's what all this boils down too. Getting Kawhi now is what's important. We know Brown will eventually get better but how much is the question.

In order for Ainge to regret this trade Brown would have to be the DPOY multiple times, and be a top 5 player in the league within 5 years. Is that possible?
Of course its possible that Brown could be that good, but your point is that the odds are that he won't.

I would say that Jaylen's odds of becoming an occasional all star are about 25%
His odds of being Paul George good are about 50%
His odds of being top 5 good are about 25%

Jaylen has a huge upside.

You are also ignoring the very real possibility that Kawhi Leonard doesn't have problems going forward. Last year was disturbing on several levels. It is hardly a sure bet that he comes back as if nothing had happened. There is a very real possibility that Jaylen is the better player in a year or two.
you are basically saying there is a 75% chance brown ends up Paul George at the least. 

That’s wildly optimistic.  The most likely scenario, by far, is that he peaks out as a fringe star that never makes an allstar team.

Brown might end up terrific, but his ceiling is stil lower than prime kawhi.  Best case scenario he ends up like jimmy butler.

No one has any clue what Jaylen Brown's ceiling is or what his best case scenario is.
lots of players had high ceilings they never reached.  His highest possible ceiling is probably jimmy butler. A mid-level expectation for him is probably André Iguodala.  Still a solid chance he ends up worse.
What are you actually basing these projections on? He doesn’t play like Jimmy Butler nor Iguodala

Yeah, I don't see any similarities, there, either. I tend to think that Brown, at least at this point, is a carbon copy of Jason Richardson.

Not sure as to how I feel about that, lol ;D.
I think he's definitely closer to JRich, but more of a defender and less of a passer. Although JRich came into the league at 21, so it might be a bit unfair to compare them for a couple of years
Agreed.  JRich is a reasonable ceiling for him.  Fringe star who put up big numbers, but never made an all-star team. 

Good call.  The question then becomes whether or not you think it's worthwhile to trade for a "top 5" player like Kawhi at the expense of a player who projects as Jason Richardson in a few years?
That's only the question if you ignore all context. Kawhi is, or at least was, a top 5 player, but he is injured and may never be that guy again. He is also an impending free agent who has expressed a desire to play in LA (aka as far from Boston as possible, really). JB is a guy who projects to be Richardson-esque, but is cost-controlled for the foreseeable future, is invested in Boston, is a leader of this team and is a healthy 21 year old.
I totally hear you and I agree that giving up a guy with a Richardson ceiling (or as I've heard others suggest - a Wally Szczerbiak ceiling) for an MVP-caliber player is a no-brainer, but when you consider that MVP-caliber player has injury concerns and might be a rental, having multiple years of a cost-controlled young player with a Wally Szczerbiak ceiling has a lot of appeal.

Where was this? Reddit?
For instance... my bubble tea guy, who has a proven track record of making a mean bubble tea while proving spot-on NBA insight, tells me jaylen optimistically projects as a smaller Wally Szczerbiak.

Based on what? Szerbiak a put up 14 points in his second NBA season roughly the same kind of year as Jaylen. He also turned 24 that year. Jaylen is way ahead of where Szerbiak was as a player at his age. Szerbiak is his floor. I have to reiterate this, but young players who are good at 21 get better, often much better. Weather its the Butlrt, George, Hayward, Kawhi ive mentioned. Or Szerbiak. Or Harrison Barnes. Or otto Porter. You can say his ceiling is Szerbiak but when hes better, younger than Szerbiak was its just not a credible comparison
i think what they are saying is the best case scenario Jaylen ends up a fringe star like Wally szczerbiak. Obviously we have several more years before we see if he stays at his current level, improves to an Otto porter level, or reaches his Wally Sczerbiak/J-Rich ceiling.  Personally I think there’s a chance he exceeds reasonable expectations and develops into a jimmy butler.

Your comparisons are utterly ridiculous.

It seems as though you're still mad that a very limited Jaylen Brown, maybe not even at 50%, dominated your Sixers. The guy averaged 15.3 PPG, in just 27 MPG, on 53.5% from the field and 50% from distance. Now imagine him healthy. Now imagine him as he continues to get better. Scary stuff, huh? I don't blame you for being bitter that the Sixers don't have anyone like him on their roster. Bitterness is your sole motivation when you bring Wally, a player that most Celtics fans don't think highly of.
Jaylen will be our 4th option next season if everyone is healthy.

Isn't that scary? Think about it, the 2 guys that absolutely destroyed the Sixers are going to be our 4th and 5th offensive options. How do you even hope to cope with that?
Eddie, careful.  Philly overachieved in year 1 of the dynasty and could realistically add kawhi and Lebron/George this summer.  Hard to imagine anyone outbidding a Fultz + #10 + Covington offer for kawhi.

You really think the Spurs, after dealing with all they did with Leonard this season, would take back Fultz as a primary piece? The same Fultz that apparently had to change his entire shooting form and was injured virtually the entire season. Wow lol. Just wow. Fultz might be an elite prospect but RIGHT NOW, his trade value is not that high. He can be a piece in a trade but if he's the primary piece, then good luck. PHI would certainly have to add Saric to that and probably another pick.
Philly can’t give up a superstar prospect like Fultz without getting assurance kawhi will re-sign, but yeah that seems to be the offer to beat.

Wow..


reminds me of when the majority of this forum said they wouldn’t give up a 2nd rounder for Embiid. This isn’t really a place for taking the long view.

I mean, I for sure never said that, but good grief find you a friend who credits and defends you about everything like LarBrd does the Sixers  :P :laugh:
"Tough times never last, but tough people do." - Robert H. Schuller

Re: Why Kawhi Leonard...we already have him
« Reply #156 on: June 17, 2018, 06:54:51 PM »

Offline Monkhouse

  • Paul Silas
  • ******
  • Posts: 6932
  • Tommy Points: 814
  • A true Celtic plays with heart.
We have to ask ourselves if Kawhi was playing in the 7th game vs the Cavs this year and not Brown would he have been better for us?

I think Ainge knows he needs his defense on Bron, KD and Harden...while getting 20 himself.

Can Brown do that? I think he can he's not there yet.

As a 21 year old, Brown averaged 18 points and 5 rebounds, while defending the other team's best player. He also had a bum hamstring.

As a 21 year old, Leonard averaged 14 points and 9 rebounds, while defending the other team's best player.

As a 22 year old, Leonard averaged 14 points and 7 rebounds, while defending the other team's best player. This run included a 4 point game, a 7 point game, and a 6 point game. It also included two 9 point games in the finals.

As a 23 year old, the Spurs were eliminated by the Clippers in the first round of the playoffs. Leonard had 12 points and 13 points in games 6 and 7, both of which were losses.

The concept that, because Brown struggled in game 7, it means his ceiling isn't as high as Leonard, is flawed.

We're not trading for Kawhi at 21, 22, or 23. If Kawhi is healthy, he is better than Brown, and any reasonable expectation of what Brown turns into. I have high hopes for Brown, but Leonard is a two time DPOY and MVP candidate

Disagree but neither of us will say anything new and neither of us will convince the other.

The argument that was made (and has been made in other places) was regarding Jaylen's upside due to his poor last game. That argument is flawed. That was my only point.

No, your premise is flawed. I said that last game vs Cavs because ultimately that's what all this boils down too. Getting Kawhi now is what's important. We know Brown will eventually get better but how much is the question.

In order for Ainge to regret this trade Brown would have to be the DPOY multiple times, and be a top 5 player in the league within 5 years. Is that possible?
Of course its possible that Brown could be that good, but your point is that the odds are that he won't.

I would say that Jaylen's odds of becoming an occasional all star are about 25%
His odds of being Paul George good are about 50%
His odds of being top 5 good are about 25%

Jaylen has a huge upside.

You are also ignoring the very real possibility that Kawhi Leonard doesn't have problems going forward. Last year was disturbing on several levels. It is hardly a sure bet that he comes back as if nothing had happened. There is a very real possibility that Jaylen is the better player in a year or two.
you are basically saying there is a 75% chance brown ends up Paul George at the least. 

That’s wildly optimistic.  The most likely scenario, by far, is that he peaks out as a fringe star that never makes an allstar team.

Brown might end up terrific, but his ceiling is stil lower than prime kawhi.  Best case scenario he ends up like jimmy butler.

No one has any clue what Jaylen Brown's ceiling is or what his best case scenario is.
lots of players had high ceilings they never reached.  His highest possible ceiling is probably jimmy butler. A mid-level expectation for him is probably André Iguodala.  Still a solid chance he ends up worse.
What are you actually basing these projections on? He doesn’t play like Jimmy Butler nor Iguodala

Yeah, I don't see any similarities, there, either. I tend to think that Brown, at least at this point, is a carbon copy of Jason Richardson.

Not sure as to how I feel about that, lol ;D.
I think he's definitely closer to JRich, but more of a defender and less of a passer. Although JRich came into the league at 21, so it might be a bit unfair to compare them for a couple of years
Agreed.  JRich is a reasonable ceiling for him.  Fringe star who put up big numbers, but never made an all-star team. 

Good call.  The question then becomes whether or not you think it's worthwhile to trade for a "top 5" player like Kawhi at the expense of a player who projects as Jason Richardson in a few years?
That's only the question if you ignore all context. Kawhi is, or at least was, a top 5 player, but he is injured and may never be that guy again. He is also an impending free agent who has expressed a desire to play in LA (aka as far from Boston as possible, really). JB is a guy who projects to be Richardson-esque, but is cost-controlled for the foreseeable future, is invested in Boston, is a leader of this team and is a healthy 21 year old.
I totally hear you and I agree that giving up a guy with a Richardson ceiling (or as I've heard others suggest - a Wally Szczerbiak ceiling) for an MVP-caliber player is a no-brainer, but when you consider that MVP-caliber player has injury concerns and might be a rental, having multiple years of a cost-controlled young player with a Wally Szczerbiak ceiling has a lot of appeal.

Where was this? Reddit?
For instance... my bubble tea guy, who has a proven track record of making a mean bubble tea while proving spot-on NBA insight, tells me jaylen optimistically projects as a smaller Wally Szczerbiak.

Based on what? Szerbiak a put up 14 points in his second NBA season roughly the same kind of year as Jaylen. He also turned 24 that year. Jaylen is way ahead of where Szerbiak was as a player at his age. Szerbiak is his floor. I have to reiterate this, but young players who are good at 21 get better, often much better. Weather its the Butlrt, George, Hayward, Kawhi ive mentioned. Or Szerbiak. Or Harrison Barnes. Or otto Porter. You can say his ceiling is Szerbiak but when hes better, younger than Szerbiak was its just not a credible comparison
i think what they are saying is the best case scenario Jaylen ends up a fringe star like Wally szczerbiak. Obviously we have several more years before we see if he stays at his current level, improves to an Otto porter level, or reaches his Wally Sczerbiak/J-Rich ceiling.  Personally I think there’s a chance he exceeds reasonable expectations and develops into a jimmy butler.

Your comparisons are utterly ridiculous.

It seems as though you're still mad that a very limited Jaylen Brown, maybe not even at 50%, dominated your Sixers. The guy averaged 15.3 PPG, in just 27 MPG, on 53.5% from the field and 50% from distance. Now imagine him healthy. Now imagine him as he continues to get better. Scary stuff, huh? I don't blame you for being bitter that the Sixers don't have anyone like him on their roster. Bitterness is your sole motivation when you bring Wally, a player that most Celtics fans don't think highly of.
Jaylen will be our 4th option next season if everyone is healthy.

Isn't that scary? Think about it, the 2 guys that absolutely destroyed the Sixers are going to be our 4th and 5th offensive options. How do you even hope to cope with that?
Eddie, careful.  Philly overachieved in year 1 of the dynasty and could realistically add kawhi and Lebron/George this summer.  Hard to imagine anyone outbidding a Fultz + #10 + Covington offer for kawhi.

You really think the Spurs, after dealing with all they did with Leonard this season, would take back Fultz as a primary piece? The same Fultz that apparently had to change his entire shooting form and was injured virtually the entire season. Wow lol. Just wow. Fultz might be an elite prospect but RIGHT NOW, his trade value is not that high. He can be a piece in a trade but if he's the primary piece, then good luck. PHI would certainly have to add Saric to that and probably another pick.
Philly can’t give up a superstar prospect like Fultz without getting assurance kawhi will re-sign, but yeah that seems to be the offer to beat.

Wow..


reminds me of when the majority of this forum said they wouldn’t give up a 2nd rounder for Embiid. This isn’t really a place for taking the long view.

That just isn't true... And even if people said that, it was probably in jest... Even if Embiid never plays up to his potential, chances are he will outplay any 2nd rounder generally.

Stop making up lies.

Like dude, I don't get what your angle or point is... Why are you so infatuated with the 76ers?

We just beat them 4-1 with Hayward and Kyrie out... Why do you seriously think they are that much of a threat unless they sign LeBron, or acquire PG-13/Kawhi? And none of those options are a foregone conclusion.
"I bomb atomically, Socrates' philosophies and hypotheses
Can't define how I be dropping these mockeries."

Is the glass half-full or half-empty?
It's based on your perspective, quite simply
We're the same and we're not; know what I'm saying? Listen
Son, I ain't better than you, I just think different

Re: Why Kawhi Leonard...we already have him
« Reply #157 on: June 17, 2018, 06:57:12 PM »

Offline Eddie20

  • Don Nelson
  • ********
  • Posts: 8497
  • Tommy Points: 975
We have to ask ourselves if Kawhi was playing in the 7th game vs the Cavs this year and not Brown would he have been better for us?

I think Ainge knows he needs his defense on Bron, KD and Harden...while getting 20 himself.

Can Brown do that? I think he can he's not there yet.

As a 21 year old, Brown averaged 18 points and 5 rebounds, while defending the other team's best player. He also had a bum hamstring.

As a 21 year old, Leonard averaged 14 points and 9 rebounds, while defending the other team's best player.

As a 22 year old, Leonard averaged 14 points and 7 rebounds, while defending the other team's best player. This run included a 4 point game, a 7 point game, and a 6 point game. It also included two 9 point games in the finals.

As a 23 year old, the Spurs were eliminated by the Clippers in the first round of the playoffs. Leonard had 12 points and 13 points in games 6 and 7, both of which were losses.

The concept that, because Brown struggled in game 7, it means his ceiling isn't as high as Leonard, is flawed.

We're not trading for Kawhi at 21, 22, or 23. If Kawhi is healthy, he is better than Brown, and any reasonable expectation of what Brown turns into. I have high hopes for Brown, but Leonard is a two time DPOY and MVP candidate

Disagree but neither of us will say anything new and neither of us will convince the other.

The argument that was made (and has been made in other places) was regarding Jaylen's upside due to his poor last game. That argument is flawed. That was my only point.

No, your premise is flawed. I said that last game vs Cavs because ultimately that's what all this boils down too. Getting Kawhi now is what's important. We know Brown will eventually get better but how much is the question.

In order for Ainge to regret this trade Brown would have to be the DPOY multiple times, and be a top 5 player in the league within 5 years. Is that possible?
Of course its possible that Brown could be that good, but your point is that the odds are that he won't.

I would say that Jaylen's odds of becoming an occasional all star are about 25%
His odds of being Paul George good are about 50%
His odds of being top 5 good are about 25%

Jaylen has a huge upside.

You are also ignoring the very real possibility that Kawhi Leonard doesn't have problems going forward. Last year was disturbing on several levels. It is hardly a sure bet that he comes back as if nothing had happened. There is a very real possibility that Jaylen is the better player in a year or two.
you are basically saying there is a 75% chance brown ends up Paul George at the least. 

That’s wildly optimistic.  The most likely scenario, by far, is that he peaks out as a fringe star that never makes an allstar team.

Brown might end up terrific, but his ceiling is stil lower than prime kawhi.  Best case scenario he ends up like jimmy butler.

No one has any clue what Jaylen Brown's ceiling is or what his best case scenario is.
lots of players had high ceilings they never reached.  His highest possible ceiling is probably jimmy butler. A mid-level expectation for him is probably André Iguodala.  Still a solid chance he ends up worse.
What are you actually basing these projections on? He doesn’t play like Jimmy Butler nor Iguodala

Yeah, I don't see any similarities, there, either. I tend to think that Brown, at least at this point, is a carbon copy of Jason Richardson.

Not sure as to how I feel about that, lol ;D.
I think he's definitely closer to JRich, but more of a defender and less of a passer. Although JRich came into the league at 21, so it might be a bit unfair to compare them for a couple of years
Agreed.  JRich is a reasonable ceiling for him.  Fringe star who put up big numbers, but never made an all-star team. 

Good call.  The question then becomes whether or not you think it's worthwhile to trade for a "top 5" player like Kawhi at the expense of a player who projects as Jason Richardson in a few years?
That's only the question if you ignore all context. Kawhi is, or at least was, a top 5 player, but he is injured and may never be that guy again. He is also an impending free agent who has expressed a desire to play in LA (aka as far from Boston as possible, really). JB is a guy who projects to be Richardson-esque, but is cost-controlled for the foreseeable future, is invested in Boston, is a leader of this team and is a healthy 21 year old.
I totally hear you and I agree that giving up a guy with a Richardson ceiling (or as I've heard others suggest - a Wally Szczerbiak ceiling) for an MVP-caliber player is a no-brainer, but when you consider that MVP-caliber player has injury concerns and might be a rental, having multiple years of a cost-controlled young player with a Wally Szczerbiak ceiling has a lot of appeal.

Where was this? Reddit?
For instance... my bubble tea guy, who has a proven track record of making a mean bubble tea while proving spot-on NBA insight, tells me jaylen optimistically projects as a smaller Wally Szczerbiak.

Based on what? Szerbiak a put up 14 points in his second NBA season roughly the same kind of year as Jaylen. He also turned 24 that year. Jaylen is way ahead of where Szerbiak was as a player at his age. Szerbiak is his floor. I have to reiterate this, but young players who are good at 21 get better, often much better. Weather its the Butlrt, George, Hayward, Kawhi ive mentioned. Or Szerbiak. Or Harrison Barnes. Or otto Porter. You can say his ceiling is Szerbiak but when hes better, younger than Szerbiak was its just not a credible comparison
i think what they are saying is the best case scenario Jaylen ends up a fringe star like Wally szczerbiak. Obviously we have several more years before we see if he stays at his current level, improves to an Otto porter level, or reaches his Wally Sczerbiak/J-Rich ceiling.  Personally I think there’s a chance he exceeds reasonable expectations and develops into a jimmy butler.

Your comparisons are utterly ridiculous.

It seems as though you're still mad that a very limited Jaylen Brown, maybe not even at 50%, dominated your Sixers. The guy averaged 15.3 PPG, in just 27 MPG, on 53.5% from the field and 50% from distance. Now imagine him healthy. Now imagine him as he continues to get better. Scary stuff, huh? I don't blame you for being bitter that the Sixers don't have anyone like him on their roster. Bitterness is your sole motivation when you bring Wally, a player that most Celtics fans don't think highly of.
Jaylen will be our 4th option next season if everyone is healthy.

Isn't that scary? Think about it, the 2 guys that absolutely destroyed the Sixers are going to be our 4th and 5th offensive options. How do you even hope to cope with that?
Eddie, careful.  Philly overachieved in year 1 of the dynasty and could realistically add kawhi and Lebron/George this summer.  Hard to imagine anyone outbidding a Fultz + #10 + Covington offer for kawhi.

You really think the Spurs, after dealing with all they did with Leonard this season, would take back Fultz as a primary piece? The same Fultz that apparently had to change his entire shooting form and was injured virtually the entire season. Wow lol. Just wow. Fultz might be an elite prospect but RIGHT NOW, his trade value is not that high. He can be a piece in a trade but if he's the primary piece, then good luck. PHI would certainly have to add Saric to that and probably another pick.
Philly can’t give up a superstar prospect like Fultz without getting assurance kawhi will re-sign, but yeah that seems to be the offer to beat.

Wow..


reminds me of when the majority of this forumsaid they wouldn’t give up a 2nd rounder for Embiid. This isn’t really a place for taking the long view.

Since this is flat-out lie, can you please find me the thread where the MAJORITY of this forum said that? I'm not referring to a couple of guys exaggerating either. I'm talking specifically how you described it.

You're obviously not going to look it up because it's a lie. In fact, I expect you to ignore this request because you're lying.
« Last Edit: June 17, 2018, 07:02:53 PM by Eddie20 »

Re: Why Kawhi Leonard...we already have him
« Reply #158 on: June 17, 2018, 06:58:33 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

  • Robert Parish
  • *********************
  • Posts: 21238
  • Tommy Points: 2016
We have to ask ourselves if Kawhi was playing in the 7th game vs the Cavs this year and not Brown would he have been better for us?

I think Ainge knows he needs his defense on Bron, KD and Harden...while getting 20 himself.

Can Brown do that? I think he can he's not there yet.

As a 21 year old, Brown averaged 18 points and 5 rebounds, while defending the other team's best player. He also had a bum hamstring.

As a 21 year old, Leonard averaged 14 points and 9 rebounds, while defending the other team's best player.

As a 22 year old, Leonard averaged 14 points and 7 rebounds, while defending the other team's best player. This run included a 4 point game, a 7 point game, and a 6 point game. It also included two 9 point games in the finals.

As a 23 year old, the Spurs were eliminated by the Clippers in the first round of the playoffs. Leonard had 12 points and 13 points in games 6 and 7, both of which were losses.

The concept that, because Brown struggled in game 7, it means his ceiling isn't as high as Leonard, is flawed.

We're not trading for Kawhi at 21, 22, or 23. If Kawhi is healthy, he is better than Brown, and any reasonable expectation of what Brown turns into. I have high hopes for Brown, but Leonard is a two time DPOY and MVP candidate

Disagree but neither of us will say anything new and neither of us will convince the other.

The argument that was made (and has been made in other places) was regarding Jaylen's upside due to his poor last game. That argument is flawed. That was my only point.

No, your premise is flawed. I said that last game vs Cavs because ultimately that's what all this boils down too. Getting Kawhi now is what's important. We know Brown will eventually get better but how much is the question.

In order for Ainge to regret this trade Brown would have to be the DPOY multiple times, and be a top 5 player in the league within 5 years. Is that possible?
Of course its possible that Brown could be that good, but your point is that the odds are that he won't.

I would say that Jaylen's odds of becoming an occasional all star are about 25%
His odds of being Paul George good are about 50%
His odds of being top 5 good are about 25%

Jaylen has a huge upside.

You are also ignoring the very real possibility that Kawhi Leonard doesn't have problems going forward. Last year was disturbing on several levels. It is hardly a sure bet that he comes back as if nothing had happened. There is a very real possibility that Jaylen is the better player in a year or two.
you are basically saying there is a 75% chance brown ends up Paul George at the least. 

That’s wildly optimistic.  The most likely scenario, by far, is that he peaks out as a fringe star that never makes an allstar team.

Brown might end up terrific, but his ceiling is stil lower than prime kawhi.  Best case scenario he ends up like jimmy butler.

No one has any clue what Jaylen Brown's ceiling is or what his best case scenario is.
lots of players had high ceilings they never reached.  His highest possible ceiling is probably jimmy butler. A mid-level expectation for him is probably André Iguodala.  Still a solid chance he ends up worse.
What are you actually basing these projections on? He doesn’t play like Jimmy Butler nor Iguodala

Yeah, I don't see any similarities, there, either. I tend to think that Brown, at least at this point, is a carbon copy of Jason Richardson.

Not sure as to how I feel about that, lol ;D.
I think he's definitely closer to JRich, but more of a defender and less of a passer. Although JRich came into the league at 21, so it might be a bit unfair to compare them for a couple of years
Agreed.  JRich is a reasonable ceiling for him.  Fringe star who put up big numbers, but never made an all-star team. 

Good call.  The question then becomes whether or not you think it's worthwhile to trade for a "top 5" player like Kawhi at the expense of a player who projects as Jason Richardson in a few years?
That's only the question if you ignore all context. Kawhi is, or at least was, a top 5 player, but he is injured and may never be that guy again. He is also an impending free agent who has expressed a desire to play in LA (aka as far from Boston as possible, really). JB is a guy who projects to be Richardson-esque, but is cost-controlled for the foreseeable future, is invested in Boston, is a leader of this team and is a healthy 21 year old.
I totally hear you and I agree that giving up a guy with a Richardson ceiling (or as I've heard others suggest - a Wally Szczerbiak ceiling) for an MVP-caliber player is a no-brainer, but when you consider that MVP-caliber player has injury concerns and might be a rental, having multiple years of a cost-controlled young player with a Wally Szczerbiak ceiling has a lot of appeal.

Where was this? Reddit?
For instance... my bubble tea guy, who has a proven track record of making a mean bubble tea while proving spot-on NBA insight, tells me jaylen optimistically projects as a smaller Wally Szczerbiak.

Based on what? Szerbiak a put up 14 points in his second NBA season roughly the same kind of year as Jaylen. He also turned 24 that year. Jaylen is way ahead of where Szerbiak was as a player at his age. Szerbiak is his floor. I have to reiterate this, but young players who are good at 21 get better, often much better. Weather its the Butlrt, George, Hayward, Kawhi ive mentioned. Or Szerbiak. Or Harrison Barnes. Or otto Porter. You can say his ceiling is Szerbiak but when hes better, younger than Szerbiak was its just not a credible comparison
i think what they are saying is the best case scenario Jaylen ends up a fringe star like Wally szczerbiak. Obviously we have several more years before we see if he stays at his current level, improves to an Otto porter level, or reaches his Wally Sczerbiak/J-Rich ceiling.  Personally I think there’s a chance he exceeds reasonable expectations and develops into a jimmy butler.

Your comparisons are utterly ridiculous.

It seems as though you're still mad that a very limited Jaylen Brown, maybe not even at 50%, dominated your Sixers. The guy averaged 15.3 PPG, in just 27 MPG, on 53.5% from the field and 50% from distance. Now imagine him healthy. Now imagine him as he continues to get better. Scary stuff, huh? I don't blame you for being bitter that the Sixers don't have anyone like him on their roster. Bitterness is your sole motivation when you bring Wally, a player that most Celtics fans don't think highly of.
Jaylen will be our 4th option next season if everyone is healthy.

Isn't that scary? Think about it, the 2 guys that absolutely destroyed the Sixers are going to be our 4th and 5th offensive options. How do you even hope to cope with that?
Eddie, careful.  Philly overachieved in year 1 of the dynasty and could realistically add kawhi and Lebron/George this summer.  Hard to imagine anyone outbidding a Fultz + #10 + Covington offer for kawhi.

You really think the Spurs, after dealing with all they did with Leonard this season, would take back Fultz as a primary piece? The same Fultz that apparently had to change his entire shooting form and was injured virtually the entire season. Wow lol. Just wow. Fultz might be an elite prospect but RIGHT NOW, his trade value is not that high. He can be a piece in a trade but if he's the primary piece, then good luck. PHI would certainly have to add Saric to that and probably another pick.
Philly can’t give up a superstar prospect like Fultz without getting assurance kawhi will re-sign, but yeah that seems to be the offer to beat.

Wow..


reminds me of when the majority of this forum said they wouldn’t give up a 2nd rounder for Embiid. This isn’t really a place for taking the long view.

That just isn't true... And even if people said that, it was probably in jest... Even if Embiid never plays up to his potential, chances are he will outplay any 2nd rounder generally.

ill chalk it up to “jest” when those same fans act like the youngest player in nba history to achieve a triple double isn’t adequate return for Kawhi Leonard.  That’s Philly’s trade to turn down.

Re: Why Kawhi Leonard...we already have him
« Reply #159 on: June 17, 2018, 07:00:24 PM »

Offline CelticsQuestFor18

  • Brad Stevens
  • Posts: 208
  • Tommy Points: 27
We have to ask ourselves if Kawhi was playing in the 7th game vs the Cavs this year and not Brown would he have been better for us?

I think Ainge knows he needs his defense on Bron, KD and Harden...while getting 20 himself.

Can Brown do that? I think he can he's not there yet.

As a 21 year old, Brown averaged 18 points and 5 rebounds, while defending the other team's best player. He also had a bum hamstring.

As a 21 year old, Leonard averaged 14 points and 9 rebounds, while defending the other team's best player.

As a 22 year old, Leonard averaged 14 points and 7 rebounds, while defending the other team's best player. This run included a 4 point game, a 7 point game, and a 6 point game. It also included two 9 point games in the finals.

As a 23 year old, the Spurs were eliminated by the Clippers in the first round of the playoffs. Leonard had 12 points and 13 points in games 6 and 7, both of which were losses.

The concept that, because Brown struggled in game 7, it means his ceiling isn't as high as Leonard, is flawed.

We're not trading for Kawhi at 21, 22, or 23. If Kawhi is healthy, he is better than Brown, and any reasonable expectation of what Brown turns into. I have high hopes for Brown, but Leonard is a two time DPOY and MVP candidate

Disagree but neither of us will say anything new and neither of us will convince the other.

The argument that was made (and has been made in other places) was regarding Jaylen's upside due to his poor last game. That argument is flawed. That was my only point.

No, your premise is flawed. I said that last game vs Cavs because ultimately that's what all this boils down too. Getting Kawhi now is what's important. We know Brown will eventually get better but how much is the question.

In order for Ainge to regret this trade Brown would have to be the DPOY multiple times, and be a top 5 player in the league within 5 years. Is that possible?
Of course its possible that Brown could be that good, but your point is that the odds are that he won't.

I would say that Jaylen's odds of becoming an occasional all star are about 25%
His odds of being Paul George good are about 50%
His odds of being top 5 good are about 25%

Jaylen has a huge upside.

You are also ignoring the very real possibility that Kawhi Leonard doesn't have problems going forward. Last year was disturbing on several levels. It is hardly a sure bet that he comes back as if nothing had happened. There is a very real possibility that Jaylen is the better player in a year or two.
you are basically saying there is a 75% chance brown ends up Paul George at the least. 

That’s wildly optimistic.  The most likely scenario, by far, is that he peaks out as a fringe star that never makes an allstar team.

Brown might end up terrific, but his ceiling is stil lower than prime kawhi.  Best case scenario he ends up like jimmy butler.

No one has any clue what Jaylen Brown's ceiling is or what his best case scenario is.
lots of players had high ceilings they never reached.  His highest possible ceiling is probably jimmy butler. A mid-level expectation for him is probably André Iguodala.  Still a solid chance he ends up worse.
What are you actually basing these projections on? He doesn’t play like Jimmy Butler nor Iguodala

Yeah, I don't see any similarities, there, either. I tend to think that Brown, at least at this point, is a carbon copy of Jason Richardson.

Not sure as to how I feel about that, lol ;D.
I think he's definitely closer to JRich, but more of a defender and less of a passer. Although JRich came into the league at 21, so it might be a bit unfair to compare them for a couple of years
Agreed.  JRich is a reasonable ceiling for him.  Fringe star who put up big numbers, but never made an all-star team. 

Good call.  The question then becomes whether or not you think it's worthwhile to trade for a "top 5" player like Kawhi at the expense of a player who projects as Jason Richardson in a few years?
That's only the question if you ignore all context. Kawhi is, or at least was, a top 5 player, but he is injured and may never be that guy again. He is also an impending free agent who has expressed a desire to play in LA (aka as far from Boston as possible, really). JB is a guy who projects to be Richardson-esque, but is cost-controlled for the foreseeable future, is invested in Boston, is a leader of this team and is a healthy 21 year old.
I totally hear you and I agree that giving up a guy with a Richardson ceiling (or as I've heard others suggest - a Wally Szczerbiak ceiling) for an MVP-caliber player is a no-brainer, but when you consider that MVP-caliber player has injury concerns and might be a rental, having multiple years of a cost-controlled young player with a Wally Szczerbiak ceiling has a lot of appeal.

Where was this? Reddit?
For instance... my bubble tea guy, who has a proven track record of making a mean bubble tea while proving spot-on NBA insight, tells me jaylen optimistically projects as a smaller Wally Szczerbiak.

Based on what? Szerbiak a put up 14 points in his second NBA season roughly the same kind of year as Jaylen. He also turned 24 that year. Jaylen is way ahead of where Szerbiak was as a player at his age. Szerbiak is his floor. I have to reiterate this, but young players who are good at 21 get better, often much better. Weather its the Butlrt, George, Hayward, Kawhi ive mentioned. Or Szerbiak. Or Harrison Barnes. Or otto Porter. You can say his ceiling is Szerbiak but when hes better, younger than Szerbiak was its just not a credible comparison
i think what they are saying is the best case scenario Jaylen ends up a fringe star like Wally szczerbiak. Obviously we have several more years before we see if he stays at his current level, improves to an Otto porter level, or reaches his Wally Sczerbiak/J-Rich ceiling.  Personally I think there’s a chance he exceeds reasonable expectations and develops into a jimmy butler.

Your comparisons are utterly ridiculous.

It seems as though you're still mad that a very limited Jaylen Brown, maybe not even at 50%, dominated your Sixers. The guy averaged 15.3 PPG, in just 27 MPG, on 53.5% from the field and 50% from distance. Now imagine him healthy. Now imagine him as he continues to get better. Scary stuff, huh? I don't blame you for being bitter that the Sixers don't have anyone like him on their roster. Bitterness is your sole motivation when you bring Wally, a player that most Celtics fans don't think highly of.
Jaylen will be our 4th option next season if everyone is healthy.

Isn't that scary? Think about it, the 2 guys that absolutely destroyed the Sixers are going to be our 4th and 5th offensive options. How do you even hope to cope with that?
Eddie, careful.  Philly overachieved in year 1 of the dynasty and could realistically add kawhi and Lebron/George this summer.  Hard to imagine anyone outbidding a Fultz + #10 + Covington offer for kawhi.

You really think the Spurs, after dealing with all they did with Leonard this season, would take back Fultz as a primary piece? The same Fultz that apparently had to change his entire shooting form and was injured virtually the entire season. Wow lol. Just wow. Fultz might be an elite prospect but RIGHT NOW, his trade value is not that high. He can be a piece in a trade but if he's the primary piece, then good luck. PHI would certainly have to add Saric to that and probably another pick.
Philly can’t give up a superstar prospect like Fultz without getting assurance kawhi will re-sign, but yeah that seems to be the offer to beat.

Wow..


reminds me of when the majority of this forum said they wouldn’t give up a 2nd rounder for Embiid. This isn’t really a place for taking the long view.

I mean, I for sure never said that, but good grief find you a friend who credits and defends you about everything like LarBrd does the Sixers  :P :laugh:

LOL

Re: Why Kawhi Leonard...we already have him
« Reply #160 on: June 17, 2018, 07:00:58 PM »

Offline Eddie20

  • Don Nelson
  • ********
  • Posts: 8497
  • Tommy Points: 975
We have to ask ourselves if Kawhi was playing in the 7th game vs the Cavs this year and not Brown would he have been better for us?

I think Ainge knows he needs his defense on Bron, KD and Harden...while getting 20 himself.

Can Brown do that? I think he can he's not there yet.

As a 21 year old, Brown averaged 18 points and 5 rebounds, while defending the other team's best player. He also had a bum hamstring.

As a 21 year old, Leonard averaged 14 points and 9 rebounds, while defending the other team's best player.

As a 22 year old, Leonard averaged 14 points and 7 rebounds, while defending the other team's best player. This run included a 4 point game, a 7 point game, and a 6 point game. It also included two 9 point games in the finals.

As a 23 year old, the Spurs were eliminated by the Clippers in the first round of the playoffs. Leonard had 12 points and 13 points in games 6 and 7, both of which were losses.

The concept that, because Brown struggled in game 7, it means his ceiling isn't as high as Leonard, is flawed.

We're not trading for Kawhi at 21, 22, or 23. If Kawhi is healthy, he is better than Brown, and any reasonable expectation of what Brown turns into. I have high hopes for Brown, but Leonard is a two time DPOY and MVP candidate

Disagree but neither of us will say anything new and neither of us will convince the other.

The argument that was made (and has been made in other places) was regarding Jaylen's upside due to his poor last game. That argument is flawed. That was my only point.

No, your premise is flawed. I said that last game vs Cavs because ultimately that's what all this boils down too. Getting Kawhi now is what's important. We know Brown will eventually get better but how much is the question.

In order for Ainge to regret this trade Brown would have to be the DPOY multiple times, and be a top 5 player in the league within 5 years. Is that possible?
Of course its possible that Brown could be that good, but your point is that the odds are that he won't.

I would say that Jaylen's odds of becoming an occasional all star are about 25%
His odds of being Paul George good are about 50%
His odds of being top 5 good are about 25%

Jaylen has a huge upside.

You are also ignoring the very real possibility that Kawhi Leonard doesn't have problems going forward. Last year was disturbing on several levels. It is hardly a sure bet that he comes back as if nothing had happened. There is a very real possibility that Jaylen is the better player in a year or two.
you are basically saying there is a 75% chance brown ends up Paul George at the least. 

That’s wildly optimistic.  The most likely scenario, by far, is that he peaks out as a fringe star that never makes an allstar team.

Brown might end up terrific, but his ceiling is stil lower than prime kawhi.  Best case scenario he ends up like jimmy butler.

No one has any clue what Jaylen Brown's ceiling is or what his best case scenario is.
lots of players had high ceilings they never reached.  His highest possible ceiling is probably jimmy butler. A mid-level expectation for him is probably André Iguodala.  Still a solid chance he ends up worse.
What are you actually basing these projections on? He doesn’t play like Jimmy Butler nor Iguodala

Yeah, I don't see any similarities, there, either. I tend to think that Brown, at least at this point, is a carbon copy of Jason Richardson.

Not sure as to how I feel about that, lol ;D.
I think he's definitely closer to JRich, but more of a defender and less of a passer. Although JRich came into the league at 21, so it might be a bit unfair to compare them for a couple of years
Agreed.  JRich is a reasonable ceiling for him.  Fringe star who put up big numbers, but never made an all-star team. 

Good call.  The question then becomes whether or not you think it's worthwhile to trade for a "top 5" player like Kawhi at the expense of a player who projects as Jason Richardson in a few years?
That's only the question if you ignore all context. Kawhi is, or at least was, a top 5 player, but he is injured and may never be that guy again. He is also an impending free agent who has expressed a desire to play in LA (aka as far from Boston as possible, really). JB is a guy who projects to be Richardson-esque, but is cost-controlled for the foreseeable future, is invested in Boston, is a leader of this team and is a healthy 21 year old.
I totally hear you and I agree that giving up a guy with a Richardson ceiling (or as I've heard others suggest - a Wally Szczerbiak ceiling) for an MVP-caliber player is a no-brainer, but when you consider that MVP-caliber player has injury concerns and might be a rental, having multiple years of a cost-controlled young player with a Wally Szczerbiak ceiling has a lot of appeal.

Where was this? Reddit?
For instance... my bubble tea guy, who has a proven track record of making a mean bubble tea while proving spot-on NBA insight, tells me jaylen optimistically projects as a smaller Wally Szczerbiak.

Based on what? Szerbiak a put up 14 points in his second NBA season roughly the same kind of year as Jaylen. He also turned 24 that year. Jaylen is way ahead of where Szerbiak was as a player at his age. Szerbiak is his floor. I have to reiterate this, but young players who are good at 21 get better, often much better. Weather its the Butlrt, George, Hayward, Kawhi ive mentioned. Or Szerbiak. Or Harrison Barnes. Or otto Porter. You can say his ceiling is Szerbiak but when hes better, younger than Szerbiak was its just not a credible comparison
i think what they are saying is the best case scenario Jaylen ends up a fringe star like Wally szczerbiak. Obviously we have several more years before we see if he stays at his current level, improves to an Otto porter level, or reaches his Wally Sczerbiak/J-Rich ceiling.  Personally I think there’s a chance he exceeds reasonable expectations and develops into a jimmy butler.

Your comparisons are utterly ridiculous.

It seems as though you're still mad that a very limited Jaylen Brown, maybe not even at 50%, dominated your Sixers. The guy averaged 15.3 PPG, in just 27 MPG, on 53.5% from the field and 50% from distance. Now imagine him healthy. Now imagine him as he continues to get better. Scary stuff, huh? I don't blame you for being bitter that the Sixers don't have anyone like him on their roster. Bitterness is your sole motivation when you bring Wally, a player that most Celtics fans don't think highly of.
Jaylen will be our 4th option next season if everyone is healthy.

Isn't that scary? Think about it, the 2 guys that absolutely destroyed the Sixers are going to be our 4th and 5th offensive options. How do you even hope to cope with that?
Eddie, careful.  Philly overachieved in year 1 of the dynasty and could realistically add kawhi and Lebron/George this summer.  Hard to imagine anyone outbidding a Fultz + #10 + Covington offer for kawhi.

You really think the Spurs, after dealing with all they did with Leonard this season, would take back Fultz as a primary piece? The same Fultz that apparently had to change his entire shooting form and was injured virtually the entire season. Wow lol. Just wow. Fultz might be an elite prospect but RIGHT NOW, his trade value is not that high. He can be a piece in a trade but if he's the primary piece, then good luck. PHI would certainly have to add Saric to that and probably another pick.
Philly can’t give up a superstar prospect like Fultz without getting assurance kawhi will re-sign, but yeah that seems to be the offer to beat.

Wow..


reminds me of when the majority of this forum said they wouldn’t give up a 2nd rounder for Embiid. This isn’t really a place for taking the long view.

That just isn't true... And even if people said that, it was probably in jest... Even if Embiid never plays up to his potential, chances are he will outplay any 2nd rounder generally.

Stop making up lies.

Like dude, I don't get what your angle or point is... Why are you so infatuated with the 76ers?

We just beat them 4-1 with Hayward and Kyrie out... Why do you seriously think they are that much of a threat unless they sign LeBron, or acquire PG-13/Kawhi? And none of those options are a foregone conclusion.
ill chalk it up to “jest” when those same fans act like the youngest player in nba history to achieve a triple double isn’t adequate return for Kawhi Leonard.  That’s Philly’s trade to turn down.

Forget that, I want to see these "jest" comments for myself. LarBrd, one thing is for you to overhype the Sixers, but now you're stooping really low by lying. Besides, not only are you lying, but you're basically ridiculing the collective basketball IQ of this forum.

So PLEASE either find post the link to the thread or just admit you made it up.

Re: Why Kawhi Leonard...we already have him
« Reply #161 on: June 17, 2018, 07:02:33 PM »

Offline keevsnick

  • Rajon Rondo
  • *****
  • Posts: 5515
  • Tommy Points: 549
We have to ask ourselves if Kawhi was playing in the 7th game vs the Cavs this year and not Brown would he have been better for us?

I think Ainge knows he needs his defense on Bron, KD and Harden...while getting 20 himself.

Can Brown do that? I think he can he's not there yet.

As a 21 year old, Brown averaged 18 points and 5 rebounds, while defending the other team's best player. He also had a bum hamstring.

As a 21 year old, Leonard averaged 14 points and 9 rebounds, while defending the other team's best player.

As a 22 year old, Leonard averaged 14 points and 7 rebounds, while defending the other team's best player. This run included a 4 point game, a 7 point game, and a 6 point game. It also included two 9 point games in the finals.

As a 23 year old, the Spurs were eliminated by the Clippers in the first round of the playoffs. Leonard had 12 points and 13 points in games 6 and 7, both of which were losses.

The concept that, because Brown struggled in game 7, it means his ceiling isn't as high as Leonard, is flawed.

We're not trading for Kawhi at 21, 22, or 23. If Kawhi is healthy, he is better than Brown, and any reasonable expectation of what Brown turns into. I have high hopes for Brown, but Leonard is a two time DPOY and MVP candidate

Disagree but neither of us will say anything new and neither of us will convince the other.

The argument that was made (and has been made in other places) was regarding Jaylen's upside due to his poor last game. That argument is flawed. That was my only point.

No, your premise is flawed. I said that last game vs Cavs because ultimately that's what all this boils down too. Getting Kawhi now is what's important. We know Brown will eventually get better but how much is the question.

In order for Ainge to regret this trade Brown would have to be the DPOY multiple times, and be a top 5 player in the league within 5 years. Is that possible?
Of course its possible that Brown could be that good, but your point is that the odds are that he won't.

I would say that Jaylen's odds of becoming an occasional all star are about 25%
His odds of being Paul George good are about 50%
His odds of being top 5 good are about 25%

Jaylen has a huge upside.

You are also ignoring the very real possibility that Kawhi Leonard doesn't have problems going forward. Last year was disturbing on several levels. It is hardly a sure bet that he comes back as if nothing had happened. There is a very real possibility that Jaylen is the better player in a year or two.
you are basically saying there is a 75% chance brown ends up Paul George at the least. 

That’s wildly optimistic.  The most likely scenario, by far, is that he peaks out as a fringe star that never makes an allstar team.

Brown might end up terrific, but his ceiling is stil lower than prime kawhi.  Best case scenario he ends up like jimmy butler.

No one has any clue what Jaylen Brown's ceiling is or what his best case scenario is.
lots of players had high ceilings they never reached.  His highest possible ceiling is probably jimmy butler. A mid-level expectation for him is probably André Iguodala.  Still a solid chance he ends up worse.
What are you actually basing these projections on? He doesn’t play like Jimmy Butler nor Iguodala

Yeah, I don't see any similarities, there, either. I tend to think that Brown, at least at this point, is a carbon copy of Jason Richardson.

Not sure as to how I feel about that, lol ;D.
I think he's definitely closer to JRich, but more of a defender and less of a passer. Although JRich came into the league at 21, so it might be a bit unfair to compare them for a couple of years
Agreed.  JRich is a reasonable ceiling for him.  Fringe star who put up big numbers, but never made an all-star team. 

Good call.  The question then becomes whether or not you think it's worthwhile to trade for a "top 5" player like Kawhi at the expense of a player who projects as Jason Richardson in a few years?
That's only the question if you ignore all context. Kawhi is, or at least was, a top 5 player, but he is injured and may never be that guy again. He is also an impending free agent who has expressed a desire to play in LA (aka as far from Boston as possible, really). JB is a guy who projects to be Richardson-esque, but is cost-controlled for the foreseeable future, is invested in Boston, is a leader of this team and is a healthy 21 year old.
I totally hear you and I agree that giving up a guy with a Richardson ceiling (or as I've heard others suggest - a Wally Szczerbiak ceiling) for an MVP-caliber player is a no-brainer, but when you consider that MVP-caliber player has injury concerns and might be a rental, having multiple years of a cost-controlled young player with a Wally Szczerbiak ceiling has a lot of appeal.

Where was this? Reddit?
For instance... my bubble tea guy, who has a proven track record of making a mean bubble tea while proving spot-on NBA insight, tells me jaylen optimistically projects as a smaller Wally Szczerbiak.

Based on what? Szerbiak a put up 14 points in his second NBA season roughly the same kind of year as Jaylen. He also turned 24 that year. Jaylen is way ahead of where Szerbiak was as a player at his age. Szerbiak is his floor. I have to reiterate this, but young players who are good at 21 get better, often much better. Weather its the Butlrt, George, Hayward, Kawhi ive mentioned. Or Szerbiak. Or Harrison Barnes. Or otto Porter. You can say his ceiling is Szerbiak but when hes better, younger than Szerbiak was its just not a credible comparison
i think what they are saying is the best case scenario Jaylen ends up a fringe star like Wally szczerbiak. Obviously we have several more years before we see if he stays at his current level, improves to an Otto porter level, or reaches his Wally Sczerbiak/J-Rich ceiling.  Personally I think there’s a chance he exceeds reasonable expectations and develops into a jimmy butler.

Your comparisons are utterly ridiculous.

It seems as though you're still mad that a very limited Jaylen Brown, maybe not even at 50%, dominated your Sixers. The guy averaged 15.3 PPG, in just 27 MPG, on 53.5% from the field and 50% from distance. Now imagine him healthy. Now imagine him as he continues to get better. Scary stuff, huh? I don't blame you for being bitter that the Sixers don't have anyone like him on their roster. Bitterness is your sole motivation when you bring Wally, a player that most Celtics fans don't think highly of.
im just relaying what others have said Jaylen’s ceiling is.  Personally I think more realistically his ceiling is poor man’s Dario Saric.

JK

The point is whether you see his ceiling as battier, j-rich, rudy gay, Wally or corey maggette (another name I commonly seen thrown around), there’s been countless quality players like jaylen who peaked out as fringe stars.  All those guys averaged 20+ points in their peak and generally fell short of making allstar teams. Jaylen will be our 4th option next season if everyone is healthy. He’s shown progress but let’s not get ahead of ourselves in pretending a guy who averaged 14 points at age 21 is a guaranteed mvp candidate.  Usually superstars are already performing as superstar at that age.  He’s a quality starter right now and that’s it.

The thing is man those guys arent his ceiling, they are the floor. Guys who have a similar season to Jaylen at a similar age very rarely end up as anything less than the "Fringe Star" level you describe. Maggete at 21 average 10 points a game. Richardson had a similar season on a 21 win team (that tends to inflate scoring). Szerbiak was 23 when he average 14 points a game. Even Jeff Green had the bad luck to literally require heart surgery. Otto porter didnt average 14 till this last year. Harrison barnes took till his 5th age 24 season to hit 19. So ya, Jaylen season was arguably more impressive or at a younger age than any of those guys, that would tend to indicate hes gonna be AT LEAST that good. Thats typically how the age/ improvement curve works. Now I agree he likely wont reach Kawhi levels but
history would seem to indicate thats his absolute ceilinbg while Rudy Gay (or Richardson, ie that level) is the floor. Again, he compares favorably with Hayward, George at his age. So I dont think solid all star fringe all nba is an unreasonable middle ish outcome.

his floor is 12-15 point scorer with a limited offensive game, solid defense, and poor free throw shooting.

I assume what you are doing here is stating what Jaylen was this year and saying thats his floor. I would argue first of all with your description since being a top 2 option offensively scoring 18 points a game in a playoff run is not "limited" and getting all nba defense votes is not just "solud". But besides the fact you are very wrong about what Jaylen is right now you are also ignoring that he is almost overwheñumg likely to improve past age 21, becuase almost all young players do. So I guess we are just gonna have to wait and see.

Re: Why Kawhi Leonard...we already have him
« Reply #162 on: June 17, 2018, 07:04:08 PM »

Offline Monkhouse

  • Paul Silas
  • ******
  • Posts: 6932
  • Tommy Points: 814
  • A true Celtic plays with heart.
We have to ask ourselves if Kawhi was playing in the 7th game vs the Cavs this year and not Brown would he have been better for us?

I think Ainge knows he needs his defense on Bron, KD and Harden...while getting 20 himself.

Can Brown do that? I think he can he's not there yet.

As a 21 year old, Brown averaged 18 points and 5 rebounds, while defending the other team's best player. He also had a bum hamstring.

As a 21 year old, Leonard averaged 14 points and 9 rebounds, while defending the other team's best player.

As a 22 year old, Leonard averaged 14 points and 7 rebounds, while defending the other team's best player. This run included a 4 point game, a 7 point game, and a 6 point game. It also included two 9 point games in the finals.

As a 23 year old, the Spurs were eliminated by the Clippers in the first round of the playoffs. Leonard had 12 points and 13 points in games 6 and 7, both of which were losses.

The concept that, because Brown struggled in game 7, it means his ceiling isn't as high as Leonard, is flawed.

We're not trading for Kawhi at 21, 22, or 23. If Kawhi is healthy, he is better than Brown, and any reasonable expectation of what Brown turns into. I have high hopes for Brown, but Leonard is a two time DPOY and MVP candidate

Disagree but neither of us will say anything new and neither of us will convince the other.

The argument that was made (and has been made in other places) was regarding Jaylen's upside due to his poor last game. That argument is flawed. That was my only point.

No, your premise is flawed. I said that last game vs Cavs because ultimately that's what all this boils down too. Getting Kawhi now is what's important. We know Brown will eventually get better but how much is the question.

In order for Ainge to regret this trade Brown would have to be the DPOY multiple times, and be a top 5 player in the league within 5 years. Is that possible?
Of course its possible that Brown could be that good, but your point is that the odds are that he won't.

I would say that Jaylen's odds of becoming an occasional all star are about 25%
His odds of being Paul George good are about 50%
His odds of being top 5 good are about 25%

Jaylen has a huge upside.

You are also ignoring the very real possibility that Kawhi Leonard doesn't have problems going forward. Last year was disturbing on several levels. It is hardly a sure bet that he comes back as if nothing had happened. There is a very real possibility that Jaylen is the better player in a year or two.
you are basically saying there is a 75% chance brown ends up Paul George at the least. 

That’s wildly optimistic.  The most likely scenario, by far, is that he peaks out as a fringe star that never makes an allstar team.

Brown might end up terrific, but his ceiling is stil lower than prime kawhi.  Best case scenario he ends up like jimmy butler.

No one has any clue what Jaylen Brown's ceiling is or what his best case scenario is.
lots of players had high ceilings they never reached.  His highest possible ceiling is probably jimmy butler. A mid-level expectation for him is probably André Iguodala.  Still a solid chance he ends up worse.
What are you actually basing these projections on? He doesn’t play like Jimmy Butler nor Iguodala

Yeah, I don't see any similarities, there, either. I tend to think that Brown, at least at this point, is a carbon copy of Jason Richardson.

Not sure as to how I feel about that, lol ;D.
I think he's definitely closer to JRich, but more of a defender and less of a passer. Although JRich came into the league at 21, so it might be a bit unfair to compare them for a couple of years
Agreed.  JRich is a reasonable ceiling for him.  Fringe star who put up big numbers, but never made an all-star team. 

Good call.  The question then becomes whether or not you think it's worthwhile to trade for a "top 5" player like Kawhi at the expense of a player who projects as Jason Richardson in a few years?
That's only the question if you ignore all context. Kawhi is, or at least was, a top 5 player, but he is injured and may never be that guy again. He is also an impending free agent who has expressed a desire to play in LA (aka as far from Boston as possible, really). JB is a guy who projects to be Richardson-esque, but is cost-controlled for the foreseeable future, is invested in Boston, is a leader of this team and is a healthy 21 year old.
I totally hear you and I agree that giving up a guy with a Richardson ceiling (or as I've heard others suggest - a Wally Szczerbiak ceiling) for an MVP-caliber player is a no-brainer, but when you consider that MVP-caliber player has injury concerns and might be a rental, having multiple years of a cost-controlled young player with a Wally Szczerbiak ceiling has a lot of appeal.

Where was this? Reddit?
For instance... my bubble tea guy, who has a proven track record of making a mean bubble tea while proving spot-on NBA insight, tells me jaylen optimistically projects as a smaller Wally Szczerbiak.

Based on what? Szerbiak a put up 14 points in his second NBA season roughly the same kind of year as Jaylen. He also turned 24 that year. Jaylen is way ahead of where Szerbiak was as a player at his age. Szerbiak is his floor. I have to reiterate this, but young players who are good at 21 get better, often much better. Weather its the Butlrt, George, Hayward, Kawhi ive mentioned. Or Szerbiak. Or Harrison Barnes. Or otto Porter. You can say his ceiling is Szerbiak but when hes better, younger than Szerbiak was its just not a credible comparison
i think what they are saying is the best case scenario Jaylen ends up a fringe star like Wally szczerbiak. Obviously we have several more years before we see if he stays at his current level, improves to an Otto porter level, or reaches his Wally Sczerbiak/J-Rich ceiling.  Personally I think there’s a chance he exceeds reasonable expectations and develops into a jimmy butler.

Your comparisons are utterly ridiculous.

It seems as though you're still mad that a very limited Jaylen Brown, maybe not even at 50%, dominated your Sixers. The guy averaged 15.3 PPG, in just 27 MPG, on 53.5% from the field and 50% from distance. Now imagine him healthy. Now imagine him as he continues to get better. Scary stuff, huh? I don't blame you for being bitter that the Sixers don't have anyone like him on their roster. Bitterness is your sole motivation when you bring Wally, a player that most Celtics fans don't think highly of.
Jaylen will be our 4th option next season if everyone is healthy.

Isn't that scary? Think about it, the 2 guys that absolutely destroyed the Sixers are going to be our 4th and 5th offensive options. How do you even hope to cope with that?
Eddie, careful.  Philly overachieved in year 1 of the dynasty and could realistically add kawhi and Lebron/George this summer.  Hard to imagine anyone outbidding a Fultz + #10 + Covington offer for kawhi.

You really think the Spurs, after dealing with all they did with Leonard this season, would take back Fultz as a primary piece? The same Fultz that apparently had to change his entire shooting form and was injured virtually the entire season. Wow lol. Just wow. Fultz might be an elite prospect but RIGHT NOW, his trade value is not that high. He can be a piece in a trade but if he's the primary piece, then good luck. PHI would certainly have to add Saric to that and probably another pick.
Philly can’t give up a superstar prospect like Fultz without getting assurance kawhi will re-sign, but yeah that seems to be the offer to beat.

Wow..


reminds me of when the majority of this forum said they wouldn’t give up a 2nd rounder for Embiid. This isn’t really a place for taking the long view.

That just isn't true... And even if people said that, it was probably in jest... Even if Embiid never plays up to his potential, chances are he will outplay any 2nd rounder generally.

Stop making up lies.

Like dude, I don't get what your angle or point is... Why are you so infatuated with the 76ers?

We just beat them 4-1 with Hayward and Kyrie out... Why do you seriously think they are that much of a threat unless they sign LeBron, or acquire PG-13/Kawhi? And none of those options are a foregone conclusion.
ill chalk it up to “jest” when those same fans act like the youngest player in nba history to achieve a triple double isn’t adequate return for Kawhi Leonard.  That’s Philly’s trade to turn down.

Might be one of the most overrated statistics people use to determine 'success.' Yeah sure, it's very impressive and hard feat to pull off, but who really cares? Fultz has extremely low value. No one is going to give him a top 10 pick let alone Kawhi freakin' Leonard..
"I bomb atomically, Socrates' philosophies and hypotheses
Can't define how I be dropping these mockeries."

Is the glass half-full or half-empty?
It's based on your perspective, quite simply
We're the same and we're not; know what I'm saying? Listen
Son, I ain't better than you, I just think different

Re: Why Kawhi Leonard...we already have him
« Reply #163 on: June 17, 2018, 07:05:53 PM »

Offline gouki88

  • NCE
  • Red Auerbach
  • *******************************
  • Posts: 31552
  • Tommy Points: 3141
  • 2019 & 2021 CS Historical Draft Champion
We have to ask ourselves if Kawhi was playing in the 7th game vs the Cavs this year and not Brown would he have been better for us?

I think Ainge knows he needs his defense on Bron, KD and Harden...while getting 20 himself.

Can Brown do that? I think he can he's not there yet.

As a 21 year old, Brown averaged 18 points and 5 rebounds, while defending the other team's best player. He also had a bum hamstring.

As a 21 year old, Leonard averaged 14 points and 9 rebounds, while defending the other team's best player.

As a 22 year old, Leonard averaged 14 points and 7 rebounds, while defending the other team's best player. This run included a 4 point game, a 7 point game, and a 6 point game. It also included two 9 point games in the finals.

As a 23 year old, the Spurs were eliminated by the Clippers in the first round of the playoffs. Leonard had 12 points and 13 points in games 6 and 7, both of which were losses.

The concept that, because Brown struggled in game 7, it means his ceiling isn't as high as Leonard, is flawed.

We're not trading for Kawhi at 21, 22, or 23. If Kawhi is healthy, he is better than Brown, and any reasonable expectation of what Brown turns into. I have high hopes for Brown, but Leonard is a two time DPOY and MVP candidate

Disagree but neither of us will say anything new and neither of us will convince the other.

The argument that was made (and has been made in other places) was regarding Jaylen's upside due to his poor last game. That argument is flawed. That was my only point.

No, your premise is flawed. I said that last game vs Cavs because ultimately that's what all this boils down too. Getting Kawhi now is what's important. We know Brown will eventually get better but how much is the question.

In order for Ainge to regret this trade Brown would have to be the DPOY multiple times, and be a top 5 player in the league within 5 years. Is that possible?
Of course its possible that Brown could be that good, but your point is that the odds are that he won't.

I would say that Jaylen's odds of becoming an occasional all star are about 25%
His odds of being Paul George good are about 50%
His odds of being top 5 good are about 25%

Jaylen has a huge upside.

You are also ignoring the very real possibility that Kawhi Leonard doesn't have problems going forward. Last year was disturbing on several levels. It is hardly a sure bet that he comes back as if nothing had happened. There is a very real possibility that Jaylen is the better player in a year or two.
you are basically saying there is a 75% chance brown ends up Paul George at the least. 

That’s wildly optimistic.  The most likely scenario, by far, is that he peaks out as a fringe star that never makes an allstar team.

Brown might end up terrific, but his ceiling is stil lower than prime kawhi.  Best case scenario he ends up like jimmy butler.

No one has any clue what Jaylen Brown's ceiling is or what his best case scenario is.
lots of players had high ceilings they never reached.  His highest possible ceiling is probably jimmy butler. A mid-level expectation for him is probably André Iguodala.  Still a solid chance he ends up worse.
What are you actually basing these projections on? He doesn’t play like Jimmy Butler nor Iguodala

Yeah, I don't see any similarities, there, either. I tend to think that Brown, at least at this point, is a carbon copy of Jason Richardson.

Not sure as to how I feel about that, lol ;D.
I think he's definitely closer to JRich, but more of a defender and less of a passer. Although JRich came into the league at 21, so it might be a bit unfair to compare them for a couple of years
Agreed.  JRich is a reasonable ceiling for him.  Fringe star who put up big numbers, but never made an all-star team. 

Good call.  The question then becomes whether or not you think it's worthwhile to trade for a "top 5" player like Kawhi at the expense of a player who projects as Jason Richardson in a few years?
That's only the question if you ignore all context. Kawhi is, or at least was, a top 5 player, but he is injured and may never be that guy again. He is also an impending free agent who has expressed a desire to play in LA (aka as far from Boston as possible, really). JB is a guy who projects to be Richardson-esque, but is cost-controlled for the foreseeable future, is invested in Boston, is a leader of this team and is a healthy 21 year old.
I totally hear you and I agree that giving up a guy with a Richardson ceiling (or as I've heard others suggest - a Wally Szczerbiak ceiling) for an MVP-caliber player is a no-brainer, but when you consider that MVP-caliber player has injury concerns and might be a rental, having multiple years of a cost-controlled young player with a Wally Szczerbiak ceiling has a lot of appeal.

Where was this? Reddit?
For instance... my bubble tea guy, who has a proven track record of making a mean bubble tea while proving spot-on NBA insight, tells me jaylen optimistically projects as a smaller Wally Szczerbiak.

Based on what? Szerbiak a put up 14 points in his second NBA season roughly the same kind of year as Jaylen. He also turned 24 that year. Jaylen is way ahead of where Szerbiak was as a player at his age. Szerbiak is his floor. I have to reiterate this, but young players who are good at 21 get better, often much better. Weather its the Butlrt, George, Hayward, Kawhi ive mentioned. Or Szerbiak. Or Harrison Barnes. Or otto Porter. You can say his ceiling is Szerbiak but when hes better, younger than Szerbiak was its just not a credible comparison
i think what they are saying is the best case scenario Jaylen ends up a fringe star like Wally szczerbiak. Obviously we have several more years before we see if he stays at his current level, improves to an Otto porter level, or reaches his Wally Sczerbiak/J-Rich ceiling.  Personally I think there’s a chance he exceeds reasonable expectations and develops into a jimmy butler.

Your comparisons are utterly ridiculous.

It seems as though you're still mad that a very limited Jaylen Brown, maybe not even at 50%, dominated your Sixers. The guy averaged 15.3 PPG, in just 27 MPG, on 53.5% from the field and 50% from distance. Now imagine him healthy. Now imagine him as he continues to get better. Scary stuff, huh? I don't blame you for being bitter that the Sixers don't have anyone like him on their roster. Bitterness is your sole motivation when you bring Wally, a player that most Celtics fans don't think highly of.
Jaylen will be our 4th option next season if everyone is healthy.

Isn't that scary? Think about it, the 2 guys that absolutely destroyed the Sixers are going to be our 4th and 5th offensive options. How do you even hope to cope with that?
Eddie, careful.  Philly overachieved in year 1 of the dynasty and could realistically add kawhi and Lebron/George this summer.  Hard to imagine anyone outbidding a Fultz + #10 + Covington offer for kawhi.

You really think the Spurs, after dealing with all they did with Leonard this season, would take back Fultz as a primary piece? The same Fultz that apparently had to change his entire shooting form and was injured virtually the entire season. Wow lol. Just wow. Fultz might be an elite prospect but RIGHT NOW, his trade value is not that high. He can be a piece in a trade but if he's the primary piece, then good luck. PHI would certainly have to add Saric to that and probably another pick.
Philly can’t give up a superstar prospect like Fultz without getting assurance kawhi will re-sign, but yeah that seems to be the offer to beat.

Wow..


reminds me of when the majority of this forumsaid they wouldn’t give up a 2nd rounder for Embiid. This isn’t really a place for taking the long view.

Since this is flat-out lie, can you please find me the thread where the MAJORITY of this forum said that? I'm not referring to a couple of guys exaggerating either. I'm talking specifically how you described it.

You're obviously not going to look it up because it's a lie. In fact, I expect you to ignore this request because you're lying.
I would definitely not hold your breath here
'23 Historical Draft: Orlando Magic.

PG: Terry Porter (90-91) / Steve Francis (00-01)
SG: Joe Dumars (92-93) / Jeff Hornacek (91-92) / Jerry Stackhouse (00-01)
SF: Brandon Roy (08-09) / Walter Davis (78-79)
PF: Terry Cummings (84-85) / Paul Millsap (15-16)
C: Chris Webber (00-01) / Ralph Sampson (83-84) / Andrew Bogut (09-10)

Re: Why Kawhi Leonard...we already have him
« Reply #164 on: June 17, 2018, 07:10:02 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

  • Robert Parish
  • *********************
  • Posts: 21238
  • Tommy Points: 2016
We have to ask ourselves if Kawhi was playing in the 7th game vs the Cavs this year and not Brown would he have been better for us?

I think Ainge knows he needs his defense on Bron, KD and Harden...while getting 20 himself.

Can Brown do that? I think he can he's not there yet.

As a 21 year old, Brown averaged 18 points and 5 rebounds, while defending the other team's best player. He also had a bum hamstring.

As a 21 year old, Leonard averaged 14 points and 9 rebounds, while defending the other team's best player.

As a 22 year old, Leonard averaged 14 points and 7 rebounds, while defending the other team's best player. This run included a 4 point game, a 7 point game, and a 6 point game. It also included two 9 point games in the finals.

As a 23 year old, the Spurs were eliminated by the Clippers in the first round of the playoffs. Leonard had 12 points and 13 points in games 6 and 7, both of which were losses.

The concept that, because Brown struggled in game 7, it means his ceiling isn't as high as Leonard, is flawed.

We're not trading for Kawhi at 21, 22, or 23. If Kawhi is healthy, he is better than Brown, and any reasonable expectation of what Brown turns into. I have high hopes for Brown, but Leonard is a two time DPOY and MVP candidate

Disagree but neither of us will say anything new and neither of us will convince the other.

The argument that was made (and has been made in other places) was regarding Jaylen's upside due to his poor last game. That argument is flawed. That was my only point.

No, your premise is flawed. I said that last game vs Cavs because ultimately that's what all this boils down too. Getting Kawhi now is what's important. We know Brown will eventually get better but how much is the question.

In order for Ainge to regret this trade Brown would have to be the DPOY multiple times, and be a top 5 player in the league within 5 years. Is that possible?
Of course its possible that Brown could be that good, but your point is that the odds are that he won't.

I would say that Jaylen's odds of becoming an occasional all star are about 25%
His odds of being Paul George good are about 50%
His odds of being top 5 good are about 25%

Jaylen has a huge upside.

You are also ignoring the very real possibility that Kawhi Leonard doesn't have problems going forward. Last year was disturbing on several levels. It is hardly a sure bet that he comes back as if nothing had happened. There is a very real possibility that Jaylen is the better player in a year or two.
you are basically saying there is a 75% chance brown ends up Paul George at the least. 

That’s wildly optimistic.  The most likely scenario, by far, is that he peaks out as a fringe star that never makes an allstar team.

Brown might end up terrific, but his ceiling is stil lower than prime kawhi.  Best case scenario he ends up like jimmy butler.

No one has any clue what Jaylen Brown's ceiling is or what his best case scenario is.
lots of players had high ceilings they never reached.  His highest possible ceiling is probably jimmy butler. A mid-level expectation for him is probably André Iguodala.  Still a solid chance he ends up worse.
What are you actually basing these projections on? He doesn’t play like Jimmy Butler nor Iguodala

Yeah, I don't see any similarities, there, either. I tend to think that Brown, at least at this point, is a carbon copy of Jason Richardson.

Not sure as to how I feel about that, lol ;D.
I think he's definitely closer to JRich, but more of a defender and less of a passer. Although JRich came into the league at 21, so it might be a bit unfair to compare them for a couple of years
Agreed.  JRich is a reasonable ceiling for him.  Fringe star who put up big numbers, but never made an all-star team. 

Good call.  The question then becomes whether or not you think it's worthwhile to trade for a "top 5" player like Kawhi at the expense of a player who projects as Jason Richardson in a few years?
That's only the question if you ignore all context. Kawhi is, or at least was, a top 5 player, but he is injured and may never be that guy again. He is also an impending free agent who has expressed a desire to play in LA (aka as far from Boston as possible, really). JB is a guy who projects to be Richardson-esque, but is cost-controlled for the foreseeable future, is invested in Boston, is a leader of this team and is a healthy 21 year old.
I totally hear you and I agree that giving up a guy with a Richardson ceiling (or as I've heard others suggest - a Wally Szczerbiak ceiling) for an MVP-caliber player is a no-brainer, but when you consider that MVP-caliber player has injury concerns and might be a rental, having multiple years of a cost-controlled young player with a Wally Szczerbiak ceiling has a lot of appeal.

Where was this? Reddit?
For instance... my bubble tea guy, who has a proven track record of making a mean bubble tea while proving spot-on NBA insight, tells me jaylen optimistically projects as a smaller Wally Szczerbiak.

Based on what? Szerbiak a put up 14 points in his second NBA season roughly the same kind of year as Jaylen. He also turned 24 that year. Jaylen is way ahead of where Szerbiak was as a player at his age. Szerbiak is his floor. I have to reiterate this, but young players who are good at 21 get better, often much better. Weather its the Butlrt, George, Hayward, Kawhi ive mentioned. Or Szerbiak. Or Harrison Barnes. Or otto Porter. You can say his ceiling is Szerbiak but when hes better, younger than Szerbiak was its just not a credible comparison
i think what they are saying is the best case scenario Jaylen ends up a fringe star like Wally szczerbiak. Obviously we have several more years before we see if he stays at his current level, improves to an Otto porter level, or reaches his Wally Sczerbiak/J-Rich ceiling.  Personally I think there’s a chance he exceeds reasonable expectations and develops into a jimmy butler.

Your comparisons are utterly ridiculous.

It seems as though you're still mad that a very limited Jaylen Brown, maybe not even at 50%, dominated your Sixers. The guy averaged 15.3 PPG, in just 27 MPG, on 53.5% from the field and 50% from distance. Now imagine him healthy. Now imagine him as he continues to get better. Scary stuff, huh? I don't blame you for being bitter that the Sixers don't have anyone like him on their roster. Bitterness is your sole motivation when you bring Wally, a player that most Celtics fans don't think highly of.
Jaylen will be our 4th option next season if everyone is healthy.

Isn't that scary? Think about it, the 2 guys that absolutely destroyed the Sixers are going to be our 4th and 5th offensive options. How do you even hope to cope with that?
Eddie, careful.  Philly overachieved in year 1 of the dynasty and could realistically add kawhi and Lebron/George this summer.  Hard to imagine anyone outbidding a Fultz + #10 + Covington offer for kawhi.

You really think the Spurs, after dealing with all they did with Leonard this season, would take back Fultz as a primary piece? The same Fultz that apparently had to change his entire shooting form and was injured virtually the entire season. Wow lol. Just wow. Fultz might be an elite prospect but RIGHT NOW, his trade value is not that high. He can be a piece in a trade but if he's the primary piece, then good luck. PHI would certainly have to add Saric to that and probably another pick.
Philly can’t give up a superstar prospect like Fultz without getting assurance kawhi will re-sign, but yeah that seems to be the offer to beat.

Wow..


reminds me of when the majority of this forum said they wouldn’t give up a 2nd rounder for Embiid. This isn’t really a place for taking the long view.

That just isn't true... And even if people said that, it was probably in jest... Even if Embiid never plays up to his potential, chances are he will outplay any 2nd rounder generally.

Stop making up lies.

Like dude, I don't get what your angle or point is... Why are you so infatuated with the 76ers?

We just beat them 4-1 with Hayward and Kyrie out... Why do you seriously think they are that much of a threat unless they sign LeBron, or acquire PG-13/Kawhi? And none of those options are a foregone conclusion.
ill chalk it up to “jest” when those same fans act like the youngest player in nba history to achieve a triple double isn’t adequate return for Kawhi Leonard.  That’s Philly’s trade to turn down.

Forget that, I want to see these "jest" comments for myself. LarBrd, one thing is for you to overhype the Sixers, but now you're stooping really low by lying. Besides, not only are you lying, but you're basically ridiculing the collective basketball IQ of this forum.

So PLEASE either find post the link to the thread or just admit you made it up.
i don’t believe in the whole “dig up old comments to humiliate individuals”... that’s the kind of sick stuff the leftovers of this forum participate in.  It’s not important. You called me a sixer fan for relaying that several fans around the league think brown has a ceiling of a fringe star.  Calling me a sixer fan had absolutely nothing to do with what I was taking about.  That’s just the type of instigatey nonsense that caused this forum to lose a gem like LarBrd33 in the first place.  Traditionally, you only feel alive when you are calling me a Sixer fan. I played along and joked his ceiling was Dario Saric.  That should be enough for you Eddie.   You’re welcome.

Now, if you have something of value to add to the discussion of whether it makes sense to gamble on kawhi at the expense or someone who has a realistic ceiling of someone on the level of j-rich/Sczerbiak, we can get back on topic.
« Last Edit: June 17, 2018, 07:19:46 PM by LarBrd33 »