Why Kawhi Leonard...we already have him

[KGBirdBias]

I understand. Looking at it now, Horford could opt out of his player option in 2019-20 and resign a team friendly deal.

Convincing Kawhi to stay in Boston verses going home to LA would be a major task. Hayward, Kyrie and Horford would have to a major sell job.

A Lakers and Celtics battle again...gotta love it. LOL

[saltlover]

Let's say Ainge makes a deal of Brown, Smart and picks for Kawhi.

Then we have a lineup of
Kyrie
Hayward
Tatum
Kawhi
Horford

Ainge will then have to decide who to sign either Kyrie or Kawhi. Since Rozier is on board, Kyrie may be the odd man out.  I think Ainge could then still work a S&T involving Horford for the one that doesn't want to resign. Ainge would be betting both don't want to walk and if they both want to sign, then Horford and Rozier are gone.

Getting both will make it harder for both to turn down big money. Either way, Ainge wouldn't let them walk for nothing.

if we add kawhi the idea would be to sign both long term.  There’s no either/or.

Um so you think the Celtics can absorb 4 guys making $25+M? I don't think so

It's not a bad thing, one can always be dealt in a S&T. Stevens believes Horford drives everything so until his deal can be part of another deal no one is going to take him off our hands by himself.

Ainge does not trade for Kawhi unless he’s got ownership’s commitment to pay all four.  He’s not trading Kyrie for Kawhi (I don’t see the Spurs doing it with Kyrie’s injury and free agency status).  If you believe Ainge is actually making a push for Kawhi, then you need to also believe that he’s got the ownership go-ahead for big spending the next several years.

If a deal happens, I think it’s Brown, Rozier, Morris, Yabusele, and hopefully Nader going out.  I think they re-sign Smart.  Having committed to being a legit title contender, and with Kyrie and Kawhi hitting free agency, you don’t skimp and let him walk barring an out-of-this world offer.  Baynes will be trickier since you’re limited to the taxpayer MLE or his non-Bird rights, so I’m not sure he comes on board.

The roster looks something like this:

Kyrie
Hayward
Kawhi
Tatum
Horford

Smart
Ojeleye
Theis
Maybe Baynes
Bird
#27
Vet minimums types

That’s a tax team this year, but an affordable one ($5-10 million over the tax).  The following year it balloons to close to $30 million over, which yes, is incredibly expensive.  The hope would be that Al opts out next summer and resigns to something around $20 million a year, which would bring the payroll closer to $20 million over the tax — and a $40 million lower tax bill.

Long-term you’re probably choosing between Tatum and Hayward, as their contracts end at the same time.  If Tatum continues to ascend over the next 2-3 seasons, it’s an easy choice.  In the trade I propose above, I don’t think a draft pick needs inclusion to be the best offer — so there are still plenty of picks to develop, both for roster depth and to hope 1-2 pan out into long-term keepers (with a particular eye on the Sacramento pick).

And if we keep Jaylen and don’t do a trade, the roster is going to get similarly expensive over the coming years, although the tax can be postponed for a season and blowing way beyond the tax can be postponed by one year also.  But if you think Kawhi makes you the title favorite next year, and that you can keep him, because you feel he’ll resign and ownership says they’ll pay, then you make the deal.

[smokeablount]

Let's say Ainge makes a deal of Brown, Smart and picks for Kawhi.

Then we have a lineup of
Kyrie
Hayward
Tatum
Kawhi
Horford

Ainge will then have to decide who to sign either Kyrie or Kawhi. Since Rozier is on board, Kyrie may be the odd man out.  I think Ainge could then still work a S&T involving Horford for the one that doesn't want to resign. Ainge would be betting both don't want to walk and if they both want to sign, then Horford and Rozier are gone.

Getting both will make it harder for both to turn down big money. Either way, Ainge wouldn't let them walk for nothing.

if we add kawhi the idea would be to sign both long term.  There’s no either/or.

Um so you think the Celtics can absorb 4 guys making $25+M? I don't think so

It's not a bad thing, one can always be dealt in a S&T. Stevens believes Horford drives everything so until his deal can be part of another deal no one is going to take him off our hands by himself.

Ainge does not trade for Kawhi unless he’s got ownership’s commitment to pay all four.  He’s not trading Kyrie for Kawhi (I don’t see the Spurs doing it with Kyrie’s injury and free agency status).  If you believe Ainge is actually making a push for Kawhi, then you need to also believe that he’s got the ownership go-ahead for big spending the next several years.

If a deal happens, I think it’s Brown, Rozier, Morris, Yabusele, and hopefully Nader going out.  I think they re-sign Smart.  Having committed to being a legit title contender, and with Kyrie and Kawhi hitting free agency, you don’t skimp and let him walk barring an out-of-this world offer.  Baynes will be trickier since you’re limited to the taxpayer MLE or his non-Bird rights, so I’m not sure he comes on board.

The roster looks something like this:

Kyrie
Hayward
Kawhi
Tatum
Horford

Smart
Ojeleye
Theis
Maybe Baynes
Bird
#27
Vet minimums types

That’s a tax team this year, but an affordable one ($5-10 million over the tax).  The following year it balloons to close to $30 million over, which yes, is incredibly expensive.  The hope would be that Al opts out next summer and resigns to something around $20 million a year, which would bring the payroll closer to $20 million over the tax — and a $40 million lower tax bill.

Long-term you’re probably choosing between Tatum and Hayward, as their contracts end at the same time.  If Tatum continues to ascend over the next 2-3 seasons, it’s an easy choice.  In the trade I propose above, I don’t think a draft pick needs inclusion to be the best offer — so there are still plenty of picks to develop, both for roster depth and to hope 1-2 pan out into long-term keepers (with a particular eye on the Sacramento pick).

And if we keep Jaylen and don’t do a trade, the roster is going to get similarly expensive over the coming years, although the tax can be postponed for a season and blowing way beyond the tax can be postponed by one year also.  But if you think Kawhi makes you the title favorite next year, and that you can keep him, because you feel he’ll resign and ownership says they’ll pay, then you make the deal.

Excellent breakdown, TP.

I was going to agree on some previous points before you did, namely that you don’t trade Brown for Kawhi and then let Kyrie walk, that makes no sense. Was going to add context about how much GS is spending, but you did that too.

I think I’m ok with either your proposition, standing pat this draft (maybe grabbing a guard) and having a quieter offseason, or trading up in the draft to get a top 10 pick to get a young big.

[SHAQATTACK]

I d rather keep Brown ,  he seems loyal kid .  Kawhi seems bent on Major Market condender ...for the money as well as glory.

I would not count Danny out on this tho.
But ......i don't think POP and the Spur owners want to make the Lakers into a Super Team for years to come  in the West .

I think the Spurs will do their very best to make a deal in the East FIRST and foremost .   You don't want him in the West , no way .  And Leonard won't play for a nothing team .   This only leaves a few options ? With Celtics being the most logical.

Pop likes Celtics and Stevens .   I believe Celtics can land Kawhi for the BEST deal..... I just don't see Spurs sending him to their three top rivals , it would be for a kings ransom if at all.

I don't think Spurs would enable the Lakers ...FOR anything the lakers could possibly offer .   Even for all three Young Lakers tallent and allthe future firsts NBA would allow .  Spurs would take a lesser deal from others in West or East than Lakers.

Nobody wants to enable the Lakers to shoot back to the top again this fast.

[Sophomore]

Let's say Ainge makes a deal of Brown, Smart and picks for Kawhi.

Then we have a lineup of
Kyrie
Hayward
Tatum
Kawhi
Horford

Ainge will then have to decide who to sign either Kyrie or Kawhi. Since Rozier is on board, Kyrie may be the odd man out.  I think Ainge could then still work a S&T involving Horford for the one that doesn't want to resign. Ainge would be betting both don't want to walk and if they both want to sign, then Horford and Rozier are gone.

Getting both will make it harder for both to turn down big money. Either way, Ainge wouldn't let them walk for nothing.

if we add kawhi the idea would be to sign both long term.  There’s no either/or.

Um so you think the Celtics can absorb 4 guys making $25+M? I don't think so

It's not a bad thing, one can always be dealt in a S&T. Stevens believes Horford drives everything so until his deal can be part of another deal no one is going to take him off our hands by himself.

Ainge does not trade for Kawhi unless he’s got ownership’s commitment to pay all four.  He’s not trading Kyrie for Kawhi (I don’t see the Spurs doing it with Kyrie’s injury and free agency status).  If you believe Ainge is actually making a push for Kawhi, then you need to also believe that he’s got the ownership go-ahead for big spending the next several years.

If a deal happens, I think it’s Brown, Rozier, Morris, Yabusele, and hopefully Nader going out.  I think they re-sign Smart.  Having committed to being a legit title contender, and with Kyrie and Kawhi hitting free agency, you don’t skimp and let him walk barring an out-of-this world offer.  Baynes will be trickier since you’re limited to the taxpayer MLE or his non-Bird rights, so I’m not sure he comes on board.

The roster looks something like this:

Kyrie
Hayward
Kawhi
Tatum
Horford

Smart
Ojeleye
Theis
Maybe Baynes
Bird
#27
Vet minimums types

That’s a tax team this year, but an affordable one ($5-10 million over the tax).  The following year it balloons to close to $30 million over, which yes, is incredibly expensive.  The hope would be that Al opts out next summer and resigns to something around $20 million a year, which would bring the payroll closer to $20 million over the tax — and a $40 million lower tax bill.

Long-term you’re probably choosing between Tatum and Hayward, as their contracts end at the same time.  If Tatum continues to ascend over the next 2-3 seasons, it’s an easy choice.  In the trade I propose above, I don’t think a draft pick needs inclusion to be the best offer — so there are still plenty of picks to develop, both for roster depth and to hope 1-2 pan out into long-term keepers (with a particular eye on the Sacramento pick).

And if we keep Jaylen and don’t do a trade, the roster is going to get similarly expensive over the coming years, although the tax can be postponed for a season and blowing way beyond the tax can be postponed by one year also.  But if you think Kawhi makes you the title favorite next year, and that you can keep him, because you feel he’ll resign and ownership says they’ll pay, then you make the deal.

That bolded language is important to me. Most of the mock trades on this board, and the ESPN scenarios, have the Celtics also sending out picks. To me, that's too much risk. We would be depending on three players coming off season-ending injuries (and don't forget, this isn't Kawhi or Kyrie's first injury problem...) and emptying the cupboard of draft picks.

Our current trajectory, with even a little luck on the picks, already looks plenty bright with less risk.

If no picks are involved, I swing back a little toward the trade. But it's still very much an all-in scenario. A lot depends on getting right whether our three guys will be healthy and whether Kawhi will resign.

[PAOBoston]

Leonard is a legit Top 5 player. When Ainge started the rebuild, he said he wanted to acquire as many assets as possible to be ready when/if these foundational type of guys became available.

I don't have a problem trading Brown if Leonard gives them a long term commitment. Otherwise, no way. Too much of a risk imo of losing everything you have worked hard to build up.

[KGBirdBias]

I like Salts deal but I'm hesitant to give up Rozier.

Ainge needs two assurances:
Kyrie resigns and Kawhi resigns before any deals sending Brown and Rozier out the door. I think Ainge would part with the picks in a heartbeat.

[Vermont Green]

Kawhi Leonard is a great player but I don't think he makes sense for the Celtics.  We already have 3 players at his position (wing meaning SG/SF).  Between the injury and the pending FA, there is just too much risk to make a big trade for him.  I could see a big trade for Davis or Towns or Porzingis (injury notwithstanding).

We are basically set at Point (Irving, Smart, Rozier) and Wing (Hayward, Tatum, Brown).  We may have the best PG in the league already (you could quibble Westbrook, Curry) and plenty of depth.  Short of Durant or LeBron, it is hard to improve on our wings (Leonard may or may not depending on injury/contract).  It is at the big position that there is potential improve.

Actually, if you were not concerned with the injury or the contract, the trade that makes the most sense would be Hayward plus something (maybe a pick) for Leonard.  If Leonard is at his best, that would be a marginal upgrade for us but that does not seem like a likely trade.

[KGBirdBias]

We have to ask ourselves if Kawhi was playing in the 7th game vs the Cavs this year and not Brown would he have been better for us?

I think Ainge knows he needs his defense on Bron, KD and Harden...while getting 20 himself.

Can Brown do that? I think he can he's not there yet.

[DefenseWinsChamps]

We have to ask ourselves if Kawhi was playing in the 7th game vs the Cavs this year and not Brown would he have been better for us?

I think Ainge knows he needs his defense on Bron, KD and Harden...while getting 20 himself.

Can Brown do that? I think he can he's not there yet.

As a 21 year old, Brown averaged 18 points and 5 rebounds, while defending the other team's best player. He also had a bum hamstring.

As a 21 year old, Leonard averaged 14 points and 9 rebounds, while defending the other team's best player.

As a 22 year old, Leonard averaged 14 points and 7 rebounds, while defending the other team's best player. This run included a 4 point game, a 7 point game, and a 6 point game. It also included two 9 point games in the finals.

As a 23 year old, the Spurs were eliminated by the Clippers in the first round of the playoffs. Leonard had 12 points and 13 points in games 6 and 7, both of which were losses.

The concept that, because Brown struggled in game 7, it means his ceiling isn't as high as Leonard, is flawed.

[BitterJim]

We have to ask ourselves if Kawhi was playing in the 7th game vs the Cavs this year and not Brown would he have been better for us?

I think Ainge knows he needs his defense on Bron, KD and Harden...while getting 20 himself.

Can Brown do that? I think he can he's not there yet.

As a 21 year old, Brown averaged 18 points and 5 rebounds, while defending the other team's best player. He also had a bum hamstring.

As a 21 year old, Leonard averaged 14 points and 9 rebounds, while defending the other team's best player.

As a 22 year old, Leonard averaged 14 points and 7 rebounds, while defending the other team's best player. This run included a 4 point game, a 7 point game, and a 6 point game. It also included two 9 point games in the finals.

As a 23 year old, the Spurs were eliminated by the Clippers in the first round of the playoffs. Leonard had 12 points and 13 points in games 6 and 7, both of which were losses.

The concept that, because Brown struggled in game 7, it means his ceiling isn't as high as Leonard, is flawed.

We're not trading for Kawhi at 21, 22, or 23. If Kawhi is healthy, he is better than Brown, and any reasonable expectation of what Brown turns into. I have high hopes for Brown, but Leonard is a two time DPOY and MVP candidate

[DefenseWinsChamps]

We have to ask ourselves if Kawhi was playing in the 7th game vs the Cavs this year and not Brown would he have been better for us?

I think Ainge knows he needs his defense on Bron, KD and Harden...while getting 20 himself.

Can Brown do that? I think he can he's not there yet.

As a 21 year old, Brown averaged 18 points and 5 rebounds, while defending the other team's best player. He also had a bum hamstring.

As a 21 year old, Leonard averaged 14 points and 9 rebounds, while defending the other team's best player.

As a 22 year old, Leonard averaged 14 points and 7 rebounds, while defending the other team's best player. This run included a 4 point game, a 7 point game, and a 6 point game. It also included two 9 point games in the finals.

As a 23 year old, the Spurs were eliminated by the Clippers in the first round of the playoffs. Leonard had 12 points and 13 points in games 6 and 7, both of which were losses.

The concept that, because Brown struggled in game 7, it means his ceiling isn't as high as Leonard, is flawed.

We're not trading for Kawhi at 21, 22, or 23. If Kawhi is healthy, he is better than Brown, and any reasonable expectation of what Brown turns into. I have high hopes for Brown, but Leonard is a two time DPOY and MVP candidate

Disagree but neither of us will say anything new and neither of us will convince the other.

The argument that was made (and has been made in other places) was regarding Jaylen's upside due to his poor last game. That argument is flawed. That was my only point.

[td450]

The thing that has most impressed me about Ainge's rebuild is how masterfully he's distributed the ages of the team across a 12 year spectrum, with the most exciting guys we have starting at the beginning of their careers.

I have always seen the odds of winning a championship without having an MVP candidate as being fairly small, but I think we have as good a chance as anyone with this group. If we have an opportunity at an MVP level player, we have 3 all-stars, several high value draft picks and several nice role players who have trade value. If we use those assets, so be it, but I would be furious if they broke up Brown and Tatum for anyone.

Kawhi Leonard is definitely a top 5 player, but winning titles in the NBA also requires a huge amount of poise and character, and how Kawhi behaved last year was troubling. I would not want Ainge to overreach here.

[BitterJim]

We have to ask ourselves if Kawhi was playing in the 7th game vs the Cavs this year and not Brown would he have been better for us?

I think Ainge knows he needs his defense on Bron, KD and Harden...while getting 20 himself.

Can Brown do that? I think he can he's not there yet.

As a 21 year old, Brown averaged 18 points and 5 rebounds, while defending the other team's best player. He also had a bum hamstring.

As a 21 year old, Leonard averaged 14 points and 9 rebounds, while defending the other team's best player.

As a 22 year old, Leonard averaged 14 points and 7 rebounds, while defending the other team's best player. This run included a 4 point game, a 7 point game, and a 6 point game. It also included two 9 point games in the finals.

As a 23 year old, the Spurs were eliminated by the Clippers in the first round of the playoffs. Leonard had 12 points and 13 points in games 6 and 7, both of which were losses.

The concept that, because Brown struggled in game 7, it means his ceiling isn't as high as Leonard, is flawed.

We're not trading for Kawhi at 21, 22, or 23. If Kawhi is healthy, he is better than Brown, and any reasonable expectation of what Brown turns into. I have high hopes for Brown, but Leonard is a two time DPOY and MVP candidate

Disagree but neither of us will say anything new and neither of us will convince the other.

The argument that was made (and has been made in other places) was regarding Jaylen's upside due to his poor last game. That argument is flawed. That was my only point.

Agreed that Jaylen's last game means nothing - he was a big reason we made it as far as we did, even with the hamstring injury. I'm just saying that Kawhi is better than anyone should expect Jaylen to be (not a shot at Jaylen, but Kawhi is that good)

All that said, based on what we know there's no way I trade for Kawhi. That injury scares the Edited.  Profanity and masked profanity are against forum rules and may result in discipline. out of me

[KGBirdBias]

We have to ask ourselves if Kawhi was playing in the 7th game vs the Cavs this year and not Brown would he have been better for us?

I think Ainge knows he needs his defense on Bron, KD and Harden...while getting 20 himself.

Can Brown do that? I think he can he's not there yet.

As a 21 year old, Brown averaged 18 points and 5 rebounds, while defending the other team's best player. He also had a bum hamstring.

As a 21 year old, Leonard averaged 14 points and 9 rebounds, while defending the other team's best player.

As a 22 year old, Leonard averaged 14 points and 7 rebounds, while defending the other team's best player. This run included a 4 point game, a 7 point game, and a 6 point game. It also included two 9 point games in the finals.

As a 23 year old, the Spurs were eliminated by the Clippers in the first round of the playoffs. Leonard had 12 points and 13 points in games 6 and 7, both of which were losses.

The concept that, because Brown struggled in game 7, it means his ceiling isn't as high as Leonard, is flawed.

We're not trading for Kawhi at 21, 22, or 23. If Kawhi is healthy, he is better than Brown, and any reasonable expectation of what Brown turns into. I have high hopes for Brown, but Leonard is a two time DPOY and MVP candidate

Disagree but neither of us will say anything new and neither of us will convince the other.

The argument that was made (and has been made in other places) was regarding Jaylen's upside due to his poor last game. That argument is flawed. That was my only point.

No, your premise is flawed. I said that last game vs Cavs because ultimately that's what all this boils down too. Getting Kawhi now is what's important. We know Brown will eventually get better but how much is the question.

In order for Ainge to regret this trade Brown would have to be the DPOY multiple times, and be a top 5 player in the league within 5 years. Is that possible?