I think this is more of a positive sign than a negative one but he will be an UFA as of June 30 so in that, he can sign anywhere. He may well test the market or look for a team more likely to contend. I would. He can also wait to see what Kyrie and others do.
I don't see it as the end of the world if he leaves. If we sign him at say $23, is that really the best possible way to spend that money? Even if a good deal now, how about in 3 years?
We lost out on Anthony Davis. That is the big blow. I like Horford but not overly concerned either way now that it looks like we are going to lose Kyrie. If Kyrie does re-sign, I would see it as more important to keep Al. We would have no money to replace Al if we sign Kyrie so losing him would mean losing the salary slot.
Yeah, it pretty much is the best way to spend that money. Most importantly, whether Al gets $18 million a year or $23 million a year, the Celtics probably have an identical roster for the next three years, because those extra dollars won’t matter for cap or tax purposes, even in year 3.
Under about $18 million, there are options where the C’s now have cap room more than the MLE, up to $27 million according to Bobby marks. It’s not very hard to get up to a max player from $27 million. But what max player is going to come here? Do you risk losing Horford, because he decides to look elsewhere while you wait, and missing out on that player when he chooses a different team? With Jaylen’s rookie deal ending, there won’t be max space to carry over to next season if you miss out this year.
So in that case, where you miss out on the max player, you get 2-3 players who make a combined total of $27 million. This compares to a world in which you keep Al, resign one of Rozier and Morris, and use the MLE and BAE, also for near $27 million.
Unless you’re positive there’s a younger guy waiting for you to offer him a max deal, then you absolutely pay the money to keep Al, because there is no better way to spend it.
In the summer of '21, we currently only have the following players left on the roster (assuming we don't re-sign Rozier, Hayward or Yabusele):
Smart (13,8)
Williams (3,7)
Tatum (max extension expected: 30,5)
- or a cap hold of: 24,7 (250% of his previous salary in 20/21?)Brown (possibly max extension: 29,0)
Jackson dead cap (0,1)Total: 77,1
121,8 (expected cap) minus 77,1 = 44,7 million left for rookie contracts and a free agent.
Lets assume we sign three rookies this year (approx 6,3 mil) and one next year (f.e. 2,4 mil) as the Memphis pick flips over, together that's: 8,7. Also all open roster spots (up to 12) count as minimum salary: 3x 1 mil = 3 million.
So if we substract that, we have (44,7 - 8,7 - 3) around
33 million left in cap space. The Memphis pick would convey in 2021, but who knows where that will end up.
For a 0-6 year vet we need (25%): 30,5
For a 7-9 year vet we need (25%): 36,5
For a 10+ year vet we need (25%): 42,6We can probably forget about that 10+ year vet, but a max contract for a 7-9 year veteran free agent is in reach. Don't extend Tatum beforehand, give Brown less than a max salary, trade a rookie contract or draft pick.
I think it's possible to sign a max free agent in 2021 or am I miscalculating?
Possible free agents: McCollum, Oladipo, Beal, Antetokounmpo, Davis, Embiid or Gobert?
Topic: Horford free agency thread: Possibly leaving: Page 10 (Read 48257 times)