Could Horford end up being the worst contract of offseason?

[tazzmaniac]

Either way the Sixers and the Bucks are clearly ahead of everyone else in the East, so keeping or adding solid supporting members even at great long term cost had to be the way for them to go for them.  You have to go for the title when you have a realistic shot at it.

They are?

Embiid is a terrible leader who can't stay healthy, Simmons consistently chokes come playoff time, adding Horford will only further clog up the paint (which was already too clogged up as it is).  They lost the only closer and "alpha" guy on the team (Butler).  They also lost their best outside shooter (Reddick) - a guy who's mere presence was crucial in creating the space for Simmons and Embiid to operate.

I think people are dramatically underestimating the importance that Reddick and Butler had on that team last season.  It was the first time the Sixers have ever shown serious competitiveness in the playoffs, and the sole reason for that was the addition of Jimmy butler - who averaged 22 / 7 / 6 through that series with the Raptors and gave the Sixers the toughness and winners mentality that they needed to have a fighting chance.  Now Butler is gone.

The Bucks should be way better then the Sixers this year.  I wouldn't be shocked if the Pacers are better.  I wouldn't even be shocked if the Celtics are better.

Embiid is the Sixers alpha dog.  His on/off numbers were ridiculous in the Toronto series (+12.9 when he was on court, -15.6 when he was off court).  In game 7, the Sixers were +10 in the 45 minutes Embiid was on court and -12 in the 3 minutes he was off court.   

The Bucks got worse by losing Brogdon and they have no one to defend Embiid. The Sixers should matchup really well against them.   

Simmons/Richardson/Harris/Horford/Embiid  vs. 
Bledsoe/Mathews/Middleton/Giannis/B. Lopez 

I expect the Bucks to win the regular season by quite a bit but then reality will hit in the playoffs. 

[celticsclay]

Either way the Sixers and the Bucks are clearly ahead of everyone else in the East, so keeping or adding solid supporting members even at great long term cost had to be the way for them to go for them.  You have to go for the title when you have a realistic shot at it.

They are?

Embiid is a terrible leader who can't stay healthy, Simmons consistently chokes come playoff time, adding Horford will only further clog up the paint (which was already too clogged up as it is).  They lost the only closer and "alpha" guy on the team (Butler).  They also lost their best outside shooter (Reddick) - a guy who's mere presence was crucial in creating the space for Simmons and Embiid to operate.

I think people are dramatically underestimating the importance that Reddick and Butler had on that team last season.  It was the first time the Sixers have ever shown serious competitiveness in the playoffs, and the sole reason for that was the addition of Jimmy butler - who averaged 22 / 7 / 6 through that series with the Raptors and gave the Sixers the toughness and winners mentality that they needed to have a fighting chance.  Now Butler is gone.

The Bucks should be way better then the Sixers this year.  I wouldn't be shocked if the Pacers are better.  I wouldn't even be shocked if the Celtics are better.

Embiid is the Sixers alpha dog.  His on/off numbers were ridiculous in the Toronto series (+12.9 when he was on court, -15.6 when he was off court).  In game 7, the Sixers were +10 in the 45 minutes Embiid was on court and -12 in the 3 minutes he was off court.   

The Bucks got worse by losing Brogdon and they have no one to defend Embiid. The Sixers should matchup really well against them.   

Simmons/Richardson/Harris/Horford/Embiid  vs. 
Bledsoe/Mathews/Middleton/Giannis/B. Lopez 

I expect the Bucks to win the regular season by quite a bit but then reality will hit in the playoffs.

You are consistently high on the 76ers and you very well could be right. I do think it is a fair take to think losing Reddick and butler they will be worse than adding Horford and Richardson. They have a lot of wildcards like Simmons or zaire that could make them incredible, but they are about 10-1 to win the league compared to 5-1 for the bucks

[tazzmaniac]

Either way the Sixers and the Bucks are clearly ahead of everyone else in the East, so keeping or adding solid supporting members even at great long term cost had to be the way for them to go for them.  You have to go for the title when you have a realistic shot at it.

They are?

Embiid is a terrible leader who can't stay healthy, Simmons consistently chokes come playoff time, adding Horford will only further clog up the paint (which was already too clogged up as it is).  They lost the only closer and "alpha" guy on the team (Butler).  They also lost their best outside shooter (Reddick) - a guy who's mere presence was crucial in creating the space for Simmons and Embiid to operate.

I think people are dramatically underestimating the importance that Reddick and Butler had on that team last season.  It was the first time the Sixers have ever shown serious competitiveness in the playoffs, and the sole reason for that was the addition of Jimmy butler - who averaged 22 / 7 / 6 through that series with the Raptors and gave the Sixers the toughness and winners mentality that they needed to have a fighting chance.  Now Butler is gone.

The Bucks should be way better then the Sixers this year.  I wouldn't be shocked if the Pacers are better.  I wouldn't even be shocked if the Celtics are better.

Embiid is the Sixers alpha dog.  His on/off numbers were ridiculous in the Toronto series (+12.9 when he was on court, -15.6 when he was off court).  In game 7, the Sixers were +10 in the 45 minutes Embiid was on court and -12 in the 3 minutes he was off court.   

The Bucks got worse by losing Brogdon and they have no one to defend Embiid. The Sixers should matchup really well against them.   

Simmons/Richardson/Harris/Horford/Embiid  vs. 
Bledsoe/Mathews/Middleton/Giannis/B. Lopez 

I expect the Bucks to win the regular season by quite a bit but then reality will hit in the playoffs.

You are consistently high on the 76ers and you very well could be right. I do think it is a fair take to think losing Reddick and butler they will be worse than adding Horford and Richardson. They have a lot of wildcards like Simmons or zaire that could make them incredible, but they are about 10-1 to win the league compared to 5-1 for the bucks

Betting odds are betting odds.  Don't see a reason to put much weight in them (e.g. Houston's betting odds are a lot higher than reality).  The East is significantly weaker.  Its debatable how the Sixers compare to last season but the Raptors, Celtics and even Bucks are worse.  No one on here has even attempted to refute my assertion that the Sixers should match up very well against the Bucks. 

There's another thread on here about the Ewing Theory and the Celtics.  I think there's a good chance it applies to Butler and the Sixers.  Harris and Simmons should be better without Butler.  Losing Redick certainly hurts their offense but it helps their defense.  Horford being able to backup Embiid should be huge for them.  The Sixers 2019 numbers with Embiid off the court weren't pretty. 

                                 Min       OffRtg       DefRtg      NetRtg
Regular (Embiid on)    2154     112.5        104.9         7.6
Regular (Embiid off)    1807     107.0        110.5        -3.5
Playoff  (Embiid on)     334        113.8        93.0         20.8   
Playoff  (Embiid off)     242         98.5        120.1        -21.6

[Green-18]

Either way the Sixers and the Bucks are clearly ahead of everyone else in the East, so keeping or adding solid supporting members even at great long term cost had to be the way for them to go for them.  You have to go for the title when you have a realistic shot at it.

They are?

Embiid is a terrible leader who can't stay healthy, Simmons consistently chokes come playoff time, adding Horford will only further clog up the paint (which was already too clogged up as it is).  They lost the only closer and "alpha" guy on the team (Butler).  They also lost their best outside shooter (Reddick) - a guy who's mere presence was crucial in creating the space for Simmons and Embiid to operate.

I think people are dramatically underestimating the importance that Reddick and Butler had on that team last season.  It was the first time the Sixers have ever shown serious competitiveness in the playoffs, and the sole reason for that was the addition of Jimmy butler - who averaged 22 / 7 / 6 through that series with the Raptors and gave the Sixers the toughness and winners mentality that they needed to have a fighting chance.  Now Butler is gone.

The Bucks should be way better then the Sixers this year.  I wouldn't be shocked if the Pacers are better.  I wouldn't even be shocked if the Celtics are better.

Embiid is the Sixers alpha dog.  His on/off numbers were ridiculous in the Toronto series (+12.9 when he was on court, -15.6 when he was off court).  In game 7, the Sixers were +10 in the 45 minutes Embiid was on court and -12 in the 3 minutes he was off court.   

The Bucks got worse by losing Brogdon and they have no one to defend Embiid. The Sixers should matchup really well against them.   

Simmons/Richardson/Harris/Horford/Embiid  vs. 
Bledsoe/Mathews/Middleton/Giannis/B. Lopez 

I expect the Bucks to win the regular season by quite a bit but then reality will hit in the playoffs.

You are consistently high on the 76ers and you very well could be right. I do think it is a fair take to think losing Reddick and butler they will be worse than adding Horford and Richardson. They have a lot of wildcards like Simmons or zaire that could make them incredible, but they are about 10-1 to win the league compared to 5-1 for the bucks

Betting odds are betting odds.  Don't see a reason to put much weight in them (e.g. Houston's betting odds are a lot higher than reality).  The East is significantly weaker.  Its debatable how the Sixers compare to last season but the Raptors, Celtics and even Bucks are worse.  No one on here has even attempted to refute my assertion that the Sixers should match up very well against the Bucks. 

There's another thread on here about the Ewing Theory and the Celtics.  I think there's a good chance it applies to Butler and the Sixers.  Harris and Simmons should be better without Butler.  Losing Redick certainly hurts their offense but it helps their defense.  Horford being able to backup Embiid should be huge for them.  The Sixers 2019 numbers with Embiid off the court weren't pretty. 

                                 Min       OffRtg       DefRtg      NetRtg
Regular (Embiid on)    2154     112.5        104.9         7.6
Regular (Embiid off)    1807     107.0        110.5        -3.5
Playoff  (Embiid on)     334        113.8        93.0         20.8   
Playoff  (Embiid off)     242         98.5        120.1        -21.6

Embiid has always been a monster when you look into the advanced stats, especially on the defensive end.  We better hope that he sticks with his notoriously poor diet.  It's the only thing holding him back at this point.

[hodgy03038]

When Mike Conley was the highest paid player in the league he wasn't an All Star.

[tazzmaniac]

When Mike Conley was the highest paid player in the league he wasn't an All Star.

Conley hasn't ever been an all-star.   

[IDreamCeltics]

Horford is the best defensive answer in the east for both Embiid and Giannis, and he's great in the PnR, PnP, as a spot up shooter, and in the post... 

I think Philly undervalued Jimmy Butler (so did everyone else) but I don't think bringing in big Al - who will fit seemlessly with their current roster-  is ever going to be considered a mistake... It seems more likely to me that the 6'ers will knock the Celtics out of the playoffs this year and everyone will realize exactly WHY Horford is worth 30 million a year.

[dreamgreen]

Horford is the best defensive answer in the east for both Embiid and Giannis, and he's great in the PnR, PnP, as a spot up shooter, and in the post... 

I think Philly undervalued Jimmy Butler (so did everyone else) but I don't think bringing in big Al - who will fit seemlessly with their current roster-  is ever going to be considered a mistake... It seems more likely to me that the 6'ers will knock the Celtics out of the playoffs this year and everyone will realize exactly WHY Horford is worth 30 million a year.

They better hope they win it all next year because Horford aint getting any younger. How many games will he miss next season 20? I think Philly has to many big guys and no one to guard PGs in a league that right now is dominated by PGs. Still not sure I like their team.

[tazzmaniac]

Horford is the best defensive answer in the east for both Embiid and Giannis, and he's great in the PnR, PnP, as a spot up shooter, and in the post... 

I think Philly undervalued Jimmy Butler (so did everyone else) but I don't think bringing in big Al - who will fit seemlessly with their current roster-  is ever going to be considered a mistake... It seems more likely to me that the 6'ers will knock the Celtics out of the playoffs this year and everyone will realize exactly WHY Horford is worth 30 million a year.

They better hope they win it all next year because Horford aint getting any younger. How many games will he miss next season 20? I think Philly has to many big guys and no one to guard PGs in a league that right now is dominated by PGs. Still not sure I like their team.

It doesn't matter if he misses 20 or 30 regular season games as long as he and Embiid are healthy for the playoffs.  You don't winning anything for playing 80+ regular season games.  Richardson can guard PGs.  Simmons can guard many PGs.  Smith and Thybulle are inexperienced but they both appear to be good defensive prospects.  And they're all going to have Embiid and Horford backstopping them. 

The league isn't dominated by PGs and certainly not small PGs.  The dominant players are wings (Giannis, Lebron, KD, Kawhi, PG, Harden).  Top bigs (AD, Embiid, Jokic) are arguably more dominant than the top PGs (Curry, Lillard, Irving). 

[PAOBoston]

I still think the fit in Philly is odd. In the half court they will be good defensively but i think they will be pretty vulnerable if/when teams push the pace against them.

[celticsclay]

Either way the Sixers and the Bucks are clearly ahead of everyone else in the East, so keeping or adding solid supporting members even at great long term cost had to be the way for them to go for them.  You have to go for the title when you have a realistic shot at it.

They are?

Embiid is a terrible leader who can't stay healthy, Simmons consistently chokes come playoff time, adding Horford will only further clog up the paint (which was already too clogged up as it is).  They lost the only closer and "alpha" guy on the team (Butler).  They also lost their best outside shooter (Reddick) - a guy who's mere presence was crucial in creating the space for Simmons and Embiid to operate.

I think people are dramatically underestimating the importance that Reddick and Butler had on that team last season.  It was the first time the Sixers have ever shown serious competitiveness in the playoffs, and the sole reason for that was the addition of Jimmy butler - who averaged 22 / 7 / 6 through that series with the Raptors and gave the Sixers the toughness and winners mentality that they needed to have a fighting chance.  Now Butler is gone.

The Bucks should be way better then the Sixers this year.  I wouldn't be shocked if the Pacers are better.  I wouldn't even be shocked if the Celtics are better.

Embiid is the Sixers alpha dog.  His on/off numbers were ridiculous in the Toronto series (+12.9 when he was on court, -15.6 when he was off court).  In game 7, the Sixers were +10 in the 45 minutes Embiid was on court and -12 in the 3 minutes he was off court.   

The Bucks got worse by losing Brogdon and they have no one to defend Embiid. The Sixers should matchup really well against them.   

Simmons/Richardson/Harris/Horford/Embiid  vs. 
Bledsoe/Mathews/Middleton/Giannis/B. Lopez 

I expect the Bucks to win the regular season by quite a bit but then reality will hit in the playoffs.

You are consistently high on the 76ers and you very well could be right. I do think it is a fair take to think losing Reddick and butler they will be worse than adding Horford and Richardson. They have a lot of wildcards like Simmons or zaire that could make them incredible, but they are about 10-1 to win the league compared to 5-1 for the bucks

Betting odds are betting odds.  Don't see a reason to put much weight in them (e.g. Houston's betting odds are a lot higher than reality).  The East is significantly weaker.  Its debatable how the Sixers compare to last season but the Raptors, Celtics and even Bucks are worse.  No one on here has even attempted to refute my assertion that the Sixers should match up very well against the Bucks. 

There's another thread on here about the Ewing Theory and the Celtics.  I think there's a good chance it applies to Butler and the Sixers.  Harris and Simmons should be better without Butler.  Losing Redick certainly hurts their offense but it helps their defense.  Horford being able to backup Embiid should be huge for them.  The Sixers 2019 numbers with Embiid off the court weren't pretty. 

                                 Min       OffRtg       DefRtg      NetRtg
Regular (Embiid on)    2154     112.5        104.9         7.6
Regular (Embiid off)    1807     107.0        110.5        -3.5
Playoff  (Embiid on)     334        113.8        93.0         20.8   
Playoff  (Embiid off)     242         98.5        120.1        -21.6

Betting odds  are a bit more objective than self proclaimed embiid fan boys. That’s is why it is worth while to include

[Moranis]

Either way the Sixers and the Bucks are clearly ahead of everyone else in the East, so keeping or adding solid supporting members even at great long term cost had to be the way for them to go for them.  You have to go for the title when you have a realistic shot at it.

They are?

Embiid is a terrible leader who can't stay healthy, Simmons consistently chokes come playoff time, adding Horford will only further clog up the paint (which was already too clogged up as it is).  They lost the only closer and "alpha" guy on the team (Butler).  They also lost their best outside shooter (Reddick) - a guy who's mere presence was crucial in creating the space for Simmons and Embiid to operate.

I think people are dramatically underestimating the importance that Reddick and Butler had on that team last season.  It was the first time the Sixers have ever shown serious competitiveness in the playoffs, and the sole reason for that was the addition of Jimmy butler - who averaged 22 / 7 / 6 through that series with the Raptors and gave the Sixers the toughness and winners mentality that they needed to have a fighting chance.  Now Butler is gone.

The Bucks should be way better then the Sixers this year.  I wouldn't be shocked if the Pacers are better.  I wouldn't even be shocked if the Celtics are better.

Embiid is the Sixers alpha dog.  His on/off numbers were ridiculous in the Toronto series (+12.9 when he was on court, -15.6 when he was off court).  In game 7, the Sixers were +10 in the 45 minutes Embiid was on court and -12 in the 3 minutes he was off court.   

The Bucks got worse by losing Brogdon and they have no one to defend Embiid. The Sixers should matchup really well against them.   

Simmons/Richardson/Harris/Horford/Embiid  vs. 
Bledsoe/Mathews/Middleton/Giannis/B. Lopez 

I expect the Bucks to win the regular season by quite a bit but then reality will hit in the playoffs.

You are consistently high on the 76ers and you very well could be right. I do think it is a fair take to think losing Reddick and butler they will be worse than adding Horford and Richardson. They have a lot of wildcards like Simmons or zaire that could make them incredible, but they are about 10-1 to win the league compared to 5-1 for the bucks

Betting odds are betting odds.  Don't see a reason to put much weight in them (e.g. Houston's betting odds are a lot higher than reality).  The East is significantly weaker.  Its debatable how the Sixers compare to last season but the Raptors, Celtics and even Bucks are worse.  No one on here has even attempted to refute my assertion that the Sixers should match up very well against the Bucks. 

There's another thread on here about the Ewing Theory and the Celtics.  I think there's a good chance it applies to Butler and the Sixers.  Harris and Simmons should be better without Butler.  Losing Redick certainly hurts their offense but it helps their defense.  Horford being able to backup Embiid should be huge for them.  The Sixers 2019 numbers with Embiid off the court weren't pretty. 

                                 Min       OffRtg       DefRtg      NetRtg
Regular (Embiid on)    2154     112.5        104.9         7.6
Regular (Embiid off)    1807     107.0        110.5        -3.5
Playoff  (Embiid on)     334        113.8        93.0         20.8   
Playoff  (Embiid off)     242         98.5        120.1        -21.6

Betting odds  are a bit more objective than self proclaimed embiid fan boys. That’s is why it is worth while to include

Sure, but they also show the Sixers as the 2nd best team in the East and much closer to the Bucks than to Celtics (who surprisingly, at least to me, have the 3rd best odds in the east on a lot of books). 

[bdm860]

                                 Min       OffRtg       DefRtg      NetRtg
Regular (Embiid on)    2154     112.5        104.9         7.6
Regular (Embiid off)    1807     107.0        110.5        -3.5
Playoff  (Embiid on)     334        113.8        93.0         20.8   
Playoff  (Embiid off)     242         98.5        120.1        -21.6

Man those playoff numbers are crazy,  especially since it includes Game 3 against the Nets which Embiid missed and the Sixers won by 16 (Nets blew a golden opportunity at home there).  So in games Embiid actually played, the NetRtg would have an even greater differential. (Although you could argue winning that game without Embiid shows he's not as important as the numbers make it look, but I think that would be the wrong take.)

He was +89 playing over 70% of the available minutes against the soon-to-be champs.  And the Raptors definitely had players you'd think would be capabale of containing him, being able to play big defensive lineups with 3 of the 4 of Gasol/Ibaka/Siakam/Leonard often on the floor together.  That same size that helped limit rock star Giannis to only +10 against the Raptors (while being +61 and +45 against the Pistons and Celtics).

[Moranis]

                                 Min       OffRtg       DefRtg      NetRtg
Regular (Embiid on)    2154     112.5        104.9         7.6
Regular (Embiid off)    1807     107.0        110.5        -3.5
Playoff  (Embiid on)     334        113.8        93.0         20.8   
Playoff  (Embiid off)     242         98.5        120.1        -21.6

Man those playoff numbers are crazy,  especially since it includes Game 3 against the Nets which Embiid missed and the Sixers won by 16 (Nets blew a golden opportunity at home there).  So in games Embiid actually played, the NetRtg would have an even greater differential. (Although you could argue winning that game without Embiid shows he's not as important as the numbers make it look, but I think that would be the wrong take.)

He was +89 playing over 70% of the available minutes against the soon-to-be champs.  And the Raptors definitely had players you'd think would be capabale of containing him, being able to play big defensive lineups with 3 of the 4 of Gasol/Ibaka/Siakam/Leonard often on the floor together.  That same size that helped limit rock star Giannis to only +10 against the Raptors (while being +61 and +45 against the Pistons and Celtics).

What makes it even crazier is it isn't like Embiid was on fire dropping 35 and grabbing 15 boards.  He had a very mediocre statistical playoffs.  Against the Raptors he was only 17.6 ppg, 8.7 rpg, 3.3 apg with 2 blocks.  He shot only 37% from the field.  I mean Embiid was awful statistically and yet when he was on the floor, the Sixers dominated the Raptors on the scoreboard.  Imagine how much different the entire playoffs are last year if Embiid isn't awful statistically or the Sixers had made all their moves at a time when they could have more properly filled out their bench.  I don't know that the Sixers beat the Bucks, but the whole end of the playoffs may have worked out differently.  Free agency is probably a lot different. 

[celticsclay]

                                 Min       OffRtg       DefRtg      NetRtg
Regular (Embiid on)    2154     112.5        104.9         7.6
Regular (Embiid off)    1807     107.0        110.5        -3.5
Playoff  (Embiid on)     334        113.8        93.0         20.8   
Playoff  (Embiid off)     242         98.5        120.1        -21.6

Man those playoff numbers are crazy,  especially since it includes Game 3 against the Nets which Embiid missed and the Sixers won by 16 (Nets blew a golden opportunity at home there).  So in games Embiid actually played, the NetRtg would have an even greater differential. (Although you could argue winning that game without Embiid shows he's not as important as the numbers make it look, but I think that would be the wrong take.)

He was +89 playing over 70% of the available minutes against the soon-to-be champs.  And the Raptors definitely had players you'd think would be capabale of containing him, being able to play big defensive lineups with 3 of the 4 of Gasol/Ibaka/Siakam/Leonard often on the floor together.  That same size that helped limit rock star Giannis to only +10 against the Raptors (while being +61 and +45 against the Pistons and Celtics).

What makes it even crazier is it isn't like Embiid was on fire dropping 35 and grabbing 15 boards.  He had a very mediocre statistical playoffs.  Against the Raptors he was only 17.6 ppg, 8.7 rpg, 3.3 apg with 2 blocks.  He shot only 37% from the field.  I mean Embiid was awful statistically and yet when he was on the floor, the Sixers dominated the Raptors on the scoreboard.  Imagine how much different the entire playoffs are last year if Embiid isn't awful statistically or the Sixers had made all their moves at a time when they could have more properly filled out their bench.  I don't know that the Sixers beat the Bucks, but the whole end of the playoffs may have worked out differently.  Free agency is probably a lot different.

It is pretty crazy they were playing Greg Monroe as their backup at times in the playoffs (I believe he is fully out of the league now). We were starved for frontcourt depth and we didn't want to keep monroe.