Could Horford end up being the worst contract of offseason?

[gpap]

Not sure if I mentioned this earlier in this thread but the Tobias Harris 5 yr/$180 mil deal is pretty bad too. Philly better hope they win a title in the next 2 years, because they're going to be in cap jail after that.

With 2 MVP candidates entering their prime.  It may turn the other way, but right now I'd trade for Philly's roster and salary situation in a second.

Respectfully disagree on the 2 MVP candidates part. I know Simmons was good last night, but I think he still has gaping holes in his game and Philly overpaid for him. He has no jump shot and sometimes it's hard to figure out what his natural position is. Is he a point guard or a small forward?

As for Embiid, though I love me some dominant centers because they're a dying breed, I'm not a huge Embiid fan. I think he still has conditioning issues and it can be easy to get under his skin.

I do think Philly has a window to compete for a title, but I'm not as bullish on Simmons and Embiid as others might be.

[celticsclay]

Not sure if I mentioned this earlier in this thread but the Tobias Harris 5 yr/$180 mil deal is pretty bad too. Philly better hope they win a title in the next 2 years, because they're going to be in cap jail after that.

With 2 MVP candidates entering their prime.  It may turn the other way, but right now I'd trade for Philly's roster and salary situation in a second.

Respectfully disagree on the 2 MVP candidates part. I know Simmons was good last night, but I think he still has gaping holes in his game and Philly overpaid for him. He has no jump shot and sometimes it's hard to figure out what his natural position is. Is he a point guard or a small forward?

As for Embiid, though I love me some dominant centers because they're a dying breed, I'm not a huge Embiid fan. I think he still has conditioning issues and it can be easy to get under his skin.

I do think Philly has a window to compete for a title, but I'm not as bullish on Simmons and Embiid as others might be.

Yea calling Simmons an MVP candidate is extremely over the top. He is not even listed among the top 15-20 candidates. You got guys like

Jokic
Harden
Giannis
Davis
Lebron
Curry
George
Leonard

That are all the top level candidates

Then there is a next level of guys like Irving, Towns, Westbrook, Lillard etc and Simmons is not even on their level. Heck even someone like Siakam as the lone star on the team would have a better chance.

The 76ers are good enough without us ridiculously overrating their players...

[gpap]

Not sure if I mentioned this earlier in this thread but the Tobias Harris 5 yr/$180 mil deal is pretty bad too. Philly better hope they win a title in the next 2 years, because they're going to be in cap jail after that.

With 2 MVP candidates entering their prime.  It may turn the other way, but right now I'd trade for Philly's roster and salary situation in a second.

Respectfully disagree on the 2 MVP candidates part. I know Simmons was good last night, but I think he still has gaping holes in his game and Philly overpaid for him. He has no jump shot and sometimes it's hard to figure out what his natural position is. Is he a point guard or a small forward?

As for Embiid, though I love me some dominant centers because they're a dying breed, I'm not a huge Embiid fan. I think he still has conditioning issues and it can be easy to get under his skin.

I do think Philly has a window to compete for a title, but I'm not as bullish on Simmons and Embiid as others might be.

Yea calling Simmons an MVP candidate is extremely over the top. He is not even listed among the top 15-20 candidates. You got guys like

Jokic
Harden
Giannis
Davis
Lebron
Curry
George
Leonard

That are all the top level candidates

Then there is a next level of guys like Irving, Towns, Westbrook, Lillard etc and Simmons is not even on their level. Heck even someone like Siakam as the lone star on the team would have a better chance.

The 76ers are good enough without us ridiculously overrating their players...

And let's not forget all the injury concerns that Embiid has.

[tazzmaniac]

Not sure if I mentioned this earlier in this thread but the Tobias Harris 5 yr/$180 mil deal is pretty bad too. Philly better hope they win a title in the next 2 years, because they're going to be in cap jail after that.

With 2 MVP candidates entering their prime.  It may turn the other way, but right now I'd trade for Philly's roster and salary situation in a second.

Respectfully disagree on the 2 MVP candidates part. I know Simmons was good last night, but I think he still has gaping holes in his game and Philly overpaid for him. He has no jump shot and sometimes it's hard to figure out what his natural position is. Is he a point guard or a small forward?

As for Embiid, though I love me some dominant centers because they're a dying breed, I'm not a huge Embiid fan. I think he still has conditioning issues and it can be easy to get under his skin.

I do think Philly has a window to compete for a title, but I'm not as bullish on Simmons and Embiid as others might be.

Yea calling Simmons an MVP candidate is extremely over the top. He is not even listed among the top 15-20 candidates. You got guys like

Jokic
Harden
Giannis
Davis
Lebron
Curry
George
Leonard

That are all the top level candidates

Then there is a next level of guys like Irving, Towns, Westbrook, Lillard etc and Simmons is not even on their level. Heck even someone like Siakam as the lone star on the team would have a better chance.

The 76ers are good enough without us ridiculously overrating their players...

And let's not forget all the injury concerns that Embiid has.

Can't cause its mentioned every time Embiid gets mentioned on here.  Way too little respect for Embiid.  He's clearly in the MVP conversation. His 27pts/13rebs last season was only the 37th time that has been done and only 9 other players have done it.  Embiid did it in less than 34min whereas the rest all had over 39min (Mikan min unknown).  Embiid is also one of the best defenders in the league.  And then there's last year's remarkable on/off playoff numbers in the Toronto series and 7th game when Embiid was well less than 100%. 

As for Simmons, he's clearly not an MVP candidate this season but he could be in the future.  Saying he is overpaid is nonsense when he clearly was getting the Max and there is a whole host of players in the NBA who are overpaid.  Never been a fan of Simmons but he really stepped up to become one of the best, most versatile defenders.  His flexibility of position is a strength not a weakness. 

[tazzmaniac]

Embiid sits out with a sprained ankle.  Horford steps up with 23 pts, 9 reb and 5 ast.  Sixers gets the win over the Pistons.  Exhibit #1 in why they overpaid to get Horford.  Be competitive when Embiid is off court. 

[celticsclay]

Embiid sits out with a sprained ankle.  Horford steps up with 23 pts, 9 reb and 5 ast.  Sixers gets the win over the Pistons.  Exhibit #1 in why they overpaid to get Horford.  Be competitive when Embiid is off court.

Come on man. I know you know more About basketball than this from our discussions over the year. I also clearly said above, as has everyone else, that the contract is not bad cause of this first year. The problem is next year and even more the year after that. That is why it was questionably a terrible contract. I知 also baffled we have now had two people bump this thread this season. I am not petty enough to bump it next time al has a 5 point game...

[NKY fan]

I wonder if Danny gave Horford $100M over three years whether he would have stayed?
His contract would be manageable this year and maybe next year ... than in 2021 we could have used a pick or two to dump his contract for cap space...
given how dire our big man situation is I think we should have done all we could to keep him. Charlotte agreed on the sign and trade for Kemba so we could have probably been able to bring Walker....  [dang] so many what if but I miss Horford and  think he misses the Cs too.

[Big333223]

So far, Horford is making me look wrong.

But a big reason I think he might not work in Philly is because I think, at his age, he's going to slow down as the season goes on and in the playoffs, when Horford is going to have to play next to Embiid more, it all could still hit the fan.

So maybe what I'm thinking is, the Sixers are going to win something like 62 games and be out in the 2nd round.

[NKY fan]

A few of the very overpaid but still good veteran players will have tradeable contracts next summer.
There will be teams like ATL and MEM and CLE that will need good veterans and will have a lot of cap space but no good free agents to spend it on. I would not be surprised if Chris Paul and Horford (maybe Hayward too) get traded to a team like that.   

[Moranis]

Embiid sits out with a sprained ankle.  Horford steps up with 23 pts, 9 reb and 5 ast.  Sixers gets the win over the Pistons.  Exhibit #1 in why they overpaid to get Horford.  Be competitive when Embiid is off court.

Come on man. I know you know more About basketball than this from our discussions over the year. I also clearly said above, as has everyone else, that the contract is not bad cause of this first year. The problem is next year and even more the year after that. That is why it was questionably a terrible contract. I知 also baffled we have now had two people bump this thread this season. I am not petty enough to bump it next time al has a 5 point game...

But they don't have Horford if they don't pay him.  So you can't just look at year 3 or 4 and say see overpaid, because without those they don't have year 1 and 2. 

That is why I maintain Rozier is the worst contract because he was overpaid in year 1 when they quite simply didn't have to overpay him to get him.

[KGs Knee]

Embiid sits out with a sprained ankle.  Horford steps up with 23 pts, 9 reb and 5 ast.  Sixers gets the win over the Pistons.  Exhibit #1 in why they overpaid to get Horford.  Be competitive when Embiid is off court.

Come on man. I know you know more About basketball than this from our discussions over the year. I also clearly said above, as has everyone else, that the contract is not bad cause of this first year. The problem is next year and even more the year after that. That is why it was questionably a terrible contract. I知 also baffled we have now had two people bump this thread this season. I am not petty enough to bump it next time al has a 5 point game...

So if Horford plays a significant role in helping the Sixers win the title this year, but then craps out the next 3 is it really a horrible contract?

You have to judge the contract in its entirety, relative to what Horford contributes in aggregate over the 4 years he is being paid by the Sixers.  You seem to want to discount what his contributions are currently and only focus on what he may look like in years 3 or 4.  But that isn't how it works.

Sure, it's possible that Horford's contract could put the team in a bad spot towards the end of it, but it could very easily be worth it if it leads to great success at the beginning of his time there.

But to directly answer the question the thread title is asking, sure it's possible.  I just don't think it's very likely he'll be the worst contract signed this summer.  My guess is his contributions in years 1-2 will more than outweigh the possible negatives in years 3-4.

Also, dismissing the value of keeping Embiid fresh seems a bit misguided.  Embiid is a stud.  But he needs his minutes managed.  Having a guy as good as Horford to seamlessly take his place on the nights he's resting is huge.  I'm guessing it will be worth at least an additional 5 wins this season alone.

[keevsnick]

Embiid sits out with a sprained ankle.  Horford steps up with 23 pts, 9 reb and 5 ast.  Sixers gets the win over the Pistons.  Exhibit #1 in why they overpaid to get Horford.  Be competitive when Embiid is off court.

Come on man. I know you know more About basketball than this from our discussions over the year. I also clearly said above, as has everyone else, that the contract is not bad cause of this first year. The problem is next year and even more the year after that. That is why it was questionably a terrible contract. I知 also baffled we have now had two people bump this thread this season. I am not petty enough to bump it next time al has a 5 point game...

So if Horford plays a significant role in helping the Sixers win the title this year, but then craps out the next 3 is it really a horrible contract?

You have to judge the contract in its entirety, relative to what Horford contributes in aggregate over the 4 years he is being paid by the Sixers.  You seem to want to discount what his contributions are currently and only focus on what he may look like in years 3 or 4.  But that isn't how it works.

Sure, it's possible that Horford's contract could put the team in a bad spot towards the end of it, but it could very easily be worth it if it leads to great success at the beginning of his time there.

But to directly answer the question the thread title is asking, sure it's possible.  I just don't think it's very likely he'll be the worst contract signed this summer.  My guess is his contributions in years 1-2 will more than outweigh the possible negatives in years 3-4.

Also, dismissing the value of keeping Embiid fresh seems a bit misguided.  Embiid is a stud.  But he needs his minutes managed.  Having a guy as good as Horford to seamlessly take his place on the nights he's resting is huge.  I'm guessing it will be worth at least an additional 5 wins this season alone.

If they win it this year or next and Horford contributes significantly to that than its a good contract. If they don't but Horford declines slowly it could still be a god contract. If they don't and he takes a big step back the next couple of years it could keep them from retooling and be a very bad contract.

[tazzmaniac]

Embiid sits out with a sprained ankle.  Horford steps up with 23 pts, 9 reb and 5 ast.  Sixers gets the win over the Pistons.  Exhibit #1 in why they overpaid to get Horford.  Be competitive when Embiid is off court.

Come on man. I know you know more About basketball than this from our discussions over the year. I also clearly said above, as has everyone else, that the contract is not bad cause of this first year. The problem is next year and even more the year after that. That is why it was questionably a terrible contract. I知 also baffled we have now had two people bump this thread this season. I am not petty enough to bump it next time al has a 5 point game...

Come on man.  You were the one who brought up Horford's first game stats to justify your position.  Even though they weren't out of line (albeit a poor shooting night) with what we got out of him for 3 years and his career as a whole. 

Did the Sixers overpay for Horford? Yes. Was it justified? Yes. Assuming he doesn't get hurt, why would his performance drop off that much next season?  You can't just quote generic stats.  You have to look at the player and you have to look at their situation.  Marc Gasol is 1.5 years older than Horford.  If the Raptors don't trade for him mid-season, they most likely don't get past the Sixers.  Horford's 4th year is only partially guaranteed based on team performance (finals and championships).  The only concern I'd have is being able to re-sign Richardson in 2 years.  That'll set them back quite a bit of tax. 

The question to you is what should the Sixers have done differently?  Given Butler a 5 year Max contract?  That's a much more risky overpay in my mind given Butler's temperament, his likely performance decline with age, his skill set and the position he plays. He's already coasting during the regular season on defense.  Butler certainly played well for them in the playoffs but he didn't address their biggest issue of huge performance drop off when Embiid is off court.  They wouldn't have had the money for a solid backup C and I don't think they would have been able to re-sign Redick so they would have had a whole starting SG too. 

[tazzmaniac]

Embiid sits out with a sprained ankle.  Horford steps up with 23 pts, 9 reb and 5 ast.  Sixers gets the win over the Pistons.  Exhibit #1 in why they overpaid to get Horford.  Be competitive when Embiid is off court.

Come on man. I know you know more About basketball than this from our discussions over the year. I also clearly said above, as has everyone else, that the contract is not bad cause of this first year. The problem is next year and even more the year after that. That is why it was questionably a terrible contract. I知 also baffled we have now had two people bump this thread this season. I am not petty enough to bump it next time al has a 5 point game...

So if Horford plays a significant role in helping the Sixers win the title this year, but then craps out the next 3 is it really a horrible contract?

You have to judge the contract in its entirety, relative to what Horford contributes in aggregate over the 4 years he is being paid by the Sixers.  You seem to want to discount what his contributions are currently and only focus on what he may look like in years 3 or 4.  But that isn't how it works.

Sure, it's possible that Horford's contract could put the team in a bad spot towards the end of it, but it could very easily be worth it if it leads to great success at the beginning of his time there.

But to directly answer the question the thread title is asking, sure it's possible.  I just don't think it's very likely he'll be the worst contract signed this summer.  My guess is his contributions in years 1-2 will more than outweigh the possible negatives in years 3-4.

Also, dismissing the value of keeping Embiid fresh seems a bit misguided.  Embiid is a stud.  But he needs his minutes managed.  Having a guy as good as Horford to seamlessly take his place on the nights he's resting is huge.  I'm guessing it will be worth at least an additional 5 wins this season alone.

If they win it this year or next and Horford contributes significantly to that than its a good contract. If they don't but Horford declines slowly it could still be a god contract. If they don't and he takes a big step back the next couple of years it could keep them from retooling and be a very bad contract.

Even then the 4th season would only be 14M so it would be very tradeable.   

[Who]

Hard to know how Horford will age. On one hand, undersized bigs tend to struggle more as they get older than guys with legit size because they lose the quickness advantage they had when they were younger. On the other hand, bigs who rely more on a finesse game (jump-shooting, passing) tend to age much better than bigs who rely on power games. Strong reasons for and against Horford aging well.

I don't really have a clue what to expect from Horford towards the end of that contract.

What I do know is that Horford is still a top player (All-Star level player) who is worth every last cent of his deal in the here and now. And while Horford is not a perfect fit for Philly, he was the guy that they were able to get and he most definitely improves them and makes them better.