Author Topic: Russillo: Celtics Will "Aggressively" Try To Trade Into Top 10 Of Draft  (Read 14220 times)

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Offline saltlover

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If we could get Carter with Rozier, our 1st, and the Kings pick, I would do it.

I think the most likely outcome for the Sacto pick is 7-12 next year.

Why not get a comparable pick this year at a position of need? His floor seems pretty high - already has an NBA-ready body and some perimeter game, high BBIQ, willing defender. He might plug in for 10-15 minutes right away and be ready to replace Al in 2 years when (if we are lucky) Jaylen will have earned a fat contract.

Whoa, I’m a huge Wendell Carter fan, but the Kings pick is a bridge too far.  I think the Memphis pick is also too much.  The highest I’d go is Rozier, #27, and next year’s 1st with top-4 protection.
Not a chance the Sacramento pick isn't in play. It's the first of a few assets heading out if DA trades that far up.

Shouldn’t be with Rozier and this year’s pick already included, at least not for anything outside the top 5, which is where Carter projects to.

Are we allowed to add some more protections to the Kings Pick, like we give them that pick and make it protected 2-5 for US? Otherwise, I don't see a team like Orlando doing it unless the Kings Pick is included to be honest, or at least one of the Kings/Grizzlies Picks.

Nope, as already answered earlier today in the Luka Doncic thread.   :)

Ah okay, thanks. And I never checked that thread today so didn't know

I think people are overvaluing the Sacramento pick. If they hadn’t won the lottery this year, they would’ve picked what, 7th? While they might win the lottery again or decline, I don’t know we would expect that. They’re adding the second pick, and they have no incentive to tank. If they win even a few more games they could be 10th or 12th.

To me, Getting the seventh pick this year as a sure thing, and getting a guy we need, is pretty good value compared to the uncertainty of the Sacramento pic. The other thing that will make this pic hard to use, which I don’t think people are fully taking into account is the downside risk of Sacramento actually wins the lottery. A general manager who turns this year’s seven pick  into next years 25th or 26th is going to have some explaining to do. I am not sure what kind of protection we can offer – probably it would need to be an additional pick.

I really think you’re overrating Sacramento, and/or not fully considering the lottery changes going into next year.  They were 7th (well, tied for 6tb with Chicago), but they were 8 games out of 10th, which would have been 30% more wins.  They’re very unlikely to get to the mid-30s in win totals even with no incentive to lose.  They simply don’t have the talent.  Furthermore, they had the 2nd-worst expected winning percentage based on point differential, and won 4 games more than expected by this measurement.  Sure, they could do that again, but more likely than not they’ll finish closer to their actual expected record.  This means that actual on-court improvement might not show up in the win column.

Secondly, with flattened lottery odds, teams will have a little less incentive to tank (they will still do so, but maybe not quite as blatantly, except perhaps with an 8th/9th place conference finish tradeoff in the East).

Given that, I think it’s borderline impossible the Kings will have any worse than the 9th lottery odds, and there’s considerable upside from that point.  At the 9th odds, the pick has a 16% chance to be 2-4, a 51% chance to be 9, a 26% chance to be 10, and a small chance to be worse (with most of those odds coming from Philly winning #1 overall).  That 2-4 odds is better than the odds we had if the Lakers had finished 6th this year.

So conservatively we have a 1/6 chance of getting a top 4 pick, with the most likely outcome in the second-third of the lottery.  But it’s not that aggressive an assumption to say the Kings improve a little on the court, but their luck reverts to the mean, and they finish with the 6th-worst record.  This brings a 28% chance at a 2-4 pick and a 59% chance at a 6-8 pick.

And then there’s always the chance the bottom drops out.  The Kings, again, had the 2nd-worst expected record last year, luckily won four extra games, AND were pretty healthy.  A number of their top players (Bogdan, WCS, Hield, Fox, Koufos) played at least 70 games.  Randolph played only 59, but at 36 that seems like a reasonable amount anyway.  Garrett Temple only played 65, but he’s also on the other side of 30.  So they could get more unlucky with injuries and see reduced performance, or unlucky with wins and see a reduced total.  Or both.  Honestly, I think the Kings are far more likely to be a bottom 5 team than they are 9th.  That’s not my green glasses, or my hatred of the Kings talking.  They just profile more like the 2015-2016 Nets more than they do the 2017-2018 Lakers.

That pick has too much upside, and it’s most likely floor is 10.  Adding that to Rozier and this year’s pick to move up to the 6-9 range is just too much.

Offline Beat LA

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Same bull every year. Danny will low-ball people for draft picks, act surprised that no one wanted to trade, and nothing.

After which, he will tell us how close he was to a huge trade that nobody had speculated about, but it fell apart at the last minute.

Mike



;D

Offline CelticsElite

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Lol @ this report:

Quote
Among the other teams that have looked into trading up are the Sixers, Cavs, Bulls and Celtics, who might have to give up top rookie Jayson Tatum for a top-five pick, which is a non-starter for Boston. 

http://www.sportingnews.com/nba/news/nba-draft-trade-rumors-2018-order-predictions-projections-clippers-raptors-warriors-second-round-picks/bfhgp786zacv113q18fxfbdb6?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
I read alot of message boards of opposing teams. All of them ( like spurs ) want Ainge to somehow trade them Tatum for their disgruntled players. Cavs fans wanted Tatum badly for kyrie and now spurs fans think negotiations begin at tatum+ picks. Ultra delusion. All these other guys were on the couch having to bear watching Tatum dunk on lebron and swish that 3 lol
« Last Edit: June 20, 2018, 07:08:21 PM by CelticsElite »

Offline footey

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I would love to move up to 16 to get Divincinzo.

If they can't stay put and grab the best available..I would prefer at 27 Allen, Wagner or Thomas. No thanks to Spellman (think he is going to be a massive bust) Evans, Brown or Okogie.

Is he really going that high? I figured it's more likely he's taken in the low 20s, or around 18-19 at best (but likely 20+).


Think he is in the 15-27 range. 16 would be ideal because the Suns have a second pick there and might be willing to move back to 27 as well as some other considerations. I think Divincinzo is going to be a top 10 player in this draft.

Why are you so high on him?

Offline vjcsmoke

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Sacramento pick will be a top 5 pick.

I am not moving that pick plus other assets for a non-top 5 pick in this year's draft.

Everybody seems to have a hardon for that 'next' drafted player.  Why can't you wait for next year when you will be picking in the same range without giving up a thing.

Offline tazzmaniac

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If we could get Carter with Rozier, our 1st, and the Kings pick, I would do it.

I think the most likely outcome for the Sacto pick is 7-12 next year.

Why not get a comparable pick this year at a position of need? His floor seems pretty high - already has an NBA-ready body and some perimeter game, high BBIQ, willing defender. He might plug in for 10-15 minutes right away and be ready to replace Al in 2 years when (if we are lucky) Jaylen will have earned a fat contract.

Whoa, I’m a huge Wendell Carter fan, but the Kings pick is a bridge too far.  I think the Memphis pick is also too much.  The highest I’d go is Rozier, #27, and next year’s 1st with top-4 protection.
Not a chance the Sacramento pick isn't in play. It's the first of a few assets heading out if DA trades that far up.

Shouldn’t be with Rozier and this year’s pick already included, at least not for anything outside the top 5, which is where Carter projects to.

Are we allowed to add some more protections to the Kings Pick, like we give them that pick and make it protected 2-5 for US? Otherwise, I don't see a team like Orlando doing it unless the Kings Pick is included to be honest, or at least one of the Kings/Grizzlies Picks.

Nope, as already answered earlier today in the Luka Doncic thread.   :)

Ah okay, thanks. And I never checked that thread today so didn't know

I think people are overvaluing the Sacramento pick. If they hadn’t won the lottery this year, they would’ve picked what, 7th? While they might win the lottery again or decline, I don’t know we would expect that. They’re adding the second pick, and they have no incentive to tank. If they win even a few more games they could be 10th or 12th.

To me, Getting the seventh pick this year as a sure thing, and getting a guy we need, is pretty good value compared to the uncertainty of the Sacramento pic. The other thing that will make this pic hard to use, which I don’t think people are fully taking into account is the downside risk of Sacramento actually wins the lottery. A general manager who turns this year’s seven pick  into next years 25th or 26th is going to have some explaining to do. I am not sure what kind of protection we can offer – probably it would need to be an additional pick.

More than usual this past season there seems like there was a big cluster of bad teams at the bottom of the league.  The Kings only finished 6 games behind the worst team in the league, the Suns.  I wouldn’t be surprised if some of those teams like the Suns (with a healthy Booker), the Grizzlies (a healthy Conley), the Mavs, and Bulls leapfrog them.  The Kings aren’t really much different than the Hawks and Magic so anything can happen.  Also some of the vets that helped like Zach Randolph might move on to better teams.

The other thing people forget is that this years team was lycky. By next rating they were bottom 3, they won close,games at a huge rate relative to talent. Not a trend that likely to continue next year. If they more or less stand pat that will regress and they will be bad. As for their puck, im not worried. No  rookie this year is adding a big boost to winning.
The Kings had an incentive to lose this season.  Next season they don't.  They may be bottom 5 going into the all-star game but then the other bad teams are going to start tanking.  There is also the issue of the pick being #1 protected. 

Let's say the Kings finish 5th worst record next season.  The lottery odds break down as: 

#1 pick:         10.5%  reverts to Sixers pick likely to be mid 20s
#2-#5 pick:    31.6% 
#6-#9 pick:    57.9% 

That's just not that valuable of a pick at this point especially since everyone continues to say that next year's draft class doesn't look good at this point. 

Offline JBcat

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If we could get Carter with Rozier, our 1st, and the Kings pick, I would do it.

I think the most likely outcome for the Sacto pick is 7-12 next year.

Why not get a comparable pick this year at a position of need? His floor seems pretty high - already has an NBA-ready body and some perimeter game, high BBIQ, willing defender. He might plug in for 10-15 minutes right away and be ready to replace Al in 2 years when (if we are lucky) Jaylen will have earned a fat contract.

Whoa, I’m a huge Wendell Carter fan, but the Kings pick is a bridge too far.  I think the Memphis pick is also too much.  The highest I’d go is Rozier, #27, and next year’s 1st with top-4 protection.
Not a chance the Sacramento pick isn't in play. It's the first of a few assets heading out if DA trades that far up.

Shouldn’t be with Rozier and this year’s pick already included, at least not for anything outside the top 5, which is where Carter projects to.

Are we allowed to add some more protections to the Kings Pick, like we give them that pick and make it protected 2-5 for US? Otherwise, I don't see a team like Orlando doing it unless the Kings Pick is included to be honest, or at least one of the Kings/Grizzlies Picks.

Nope, as already answered earlier today in the Luka Doncic thread.   :)

Ah okay, thanks. And I never checked that thread today so didn't know

I think people are overvaluing the Sacramento pick. If they hadn’t won the lottery this year, they would’ve picked what, 7th? While they might win the lottery again or decline, I don’t know we would expect that. They’re adding the second pick, and they have no incentive to tank. If they win even a few more games they could be 10th or 12th.

To me, Getting the seventh pick this year as a sure thing, and getting a guy we need, is pretty good value compared to the uncertainty of the Sacramento pic. The other thing that will make this pic hard to use, which I don’t think people are fully taking into account is the downside risk of Sacramento actually wins the lottery. A general manager who turns this year’s seven pick  into next years 25th or 26th is going to have some explaining to do. I am not sure what kind of protection we can offer – probably it would need to be an additional pick.

More than usual this past season there seems like there was a big cluster of bad teams at the bottom of the league.  The Kings only finished 6 games behind the worst team in the league, the Suns.  I wouldn’t be surprised if some of those teams like the Suns (with a healthy Booker), the Grizzlies (a healthy Conley), the Mavs, and Bulls leapfrog them.  The Kings aren’t really much different than the Hawks and Magic so anything can happen.  Also some of the vets that helped like Zach Randolph might move on to better teams.

The other thing people forget is that this years team was lycky. By next rating they were bottom 3, they won close,games at a huge rate relative to talent. Not a trend that likely to continue next year. If they more or less stand pat that will regress and they will be bad. As for their puck, im not worried. No  rookie this year is adding a big boost to winning.
The Kings had an incentive to lose this season.  Next season they don't.  They may be bottom 5 going into the all-star game but then the other bad teams are going to start tanking.  There is also the issue of the pick being #1 protected. 

Let's say the Kings finish 5th worst record next season.  The lottery odds break down as: 

#1 pick:         10.5%  reverts to Sixers pick likely to be mid 20s
#2-#5 pick:    31.6% 
#6-#9 pick:    57.9% 

That's just not that valuable of a pick at this point especially since everyone continues to say that next year's draft class doesn't look good at this point.

Is the top of next year’s draft really that bad though?  Barrett, Reddish, Williamson, and maybe couple others look to have elite talent.

Offline Sophomore

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If we could get Carter with Rozier, our 1st, and the Kings pick, I would do it.

I think the most likely outcome for the Sacto pick is 7-12 next year.

Why not get a comparable pick this year at a position of need? His floor seems pretty high - already has an NBA-ready body and some perimeter game, high BBIQ, willing defender. He might plug in for 10-15 minutes right away and be ready to replace Al in 2 years when (if we are lucky) Jaylen will have earned a fat contract.

Whoa, I’m a huge Wendell Carter fan, but the Kings pick is a bridge too far.  I think the Memphis pick is also too much.  The highest I’d go is Rozier, #27, and next year’s 1st with top-4 protection.
Not a chance the Sacramento pick isn't in play. It's the first of a few assets heading out if DA trades that far up.

Shouldn’t be with Rozier and this year’s pick already included, at least not for anything outside the top 5, which is where Carter projects to.

Are we allowed to add some more protections to the Kings Pick, like we give them that pick and make it protected 2-5 for US? Otherwise, I don't see a team like Orlando doing it unless the Kings Pick is included to be honest, or at least one of the Kings/Grizzlies Picks.

Nope, as already answered earlier today in the Luka Doncic thread.   :)

Ah okay, thanks. And I never checked that thread today so didn't know

I think people are overvaluing the Sacramento pick. If they hadn’t won the lottery this year, they would’ve picked what, 7th? While they might win the lottery again or decline, I don’t know we would expect that. They’re adding the second pick, and they have no incentive to tank. If they win even a few more games they could be 10th or 12th.

To me, Getting the seventh pick this year as a sure thing, and getting a guy we need, is pretty good value compared to the uncertainty of the Sacramento pic. The other thing that will make this pic hard to use, which I don’t think people are fully taking into account is the downside risk of Sacramento actually wins the lottery. A general manager who turns this year’s seven pick  into next years 25th or 26th is going to have some explaining to do. I am not sure what kind of protection we can offer – probably it would need to be an additional pick.

I really think you’re overrating Sacramento, and/or not fully considering the lottery changes going into next year.  They were 7th (well, tied for 6tb with Chicago), but they were 8 games out of 10th, which would have been 30% more wins.  They’re very unlikely to get to the mid-30s in win totals even with no incentive to lose.  They simply don’t have the talent.  Furthermore, they had the 2nd-worst expected winning percentage based on point differential, and won 4 games more than expected by this measurement.  Sure, they could do that again, but more likely than not they’ll finish closer to their actual expected record.  This means that actual on-court improvement might not show up in the win column.

Secondly, with flattened lottery odds, teams will have a little less incentive to tank (they will still do so, but maybe not quite as blatantly, except perhaps with an 8th/9th place conference finish tradeoff in the East).

Given that, I think it’s borderline impossible the Kings will have any worse than the 9th lottery odds, and there’s considerable upside from that point.  At the 9th odds, the pick has a 16% chance to be 2-4, a 51% chance to be 9, a 26% chance to be 10, and a small chance to be worse (with most of those odds coming from Philly winning #1 overall).  That 2-4 odds is better than the odds we had if the Lakers had finished 6th this year.

So conservatively we have a 1/6 chance of getting a top 4 pick, with the most likely outcome in the second-third of the lottery.  But it’s not that aggressive an assumption to say the Kings improve a little on the court, but their luck reverts to the mean, and they finish with the 6th-worst record.  This brings a 28% chance at a 2-4 pick and a 59% chance at a 6-8 pick.

And then there’s always the chance the bottom drops out.  The Kings, again, had the 2nd-worst expected record last year, luckily won four extra games, AND were pretty healthy.  A number of their top players (Bogdan, WCS, Hield, Fox, Koufos) played at least 70 games.  Randolph played only 59, but at 36 that seems like a reasonable amount anyway.  Garrett Temple only played 65, but he’s also on the other side of 30.  So they could get more unlucky with injuries and see reduced performance, or unlucky with wins and see a reduced total.  Or both.  Honestly, I think the Kings are far more likely to be a bottom 5 team than they are 9th.  That’s not my green glasses, or my hatred of the Kings talking.  They just profile more like the 2015-2016 Nets more than they do the 2017-2018 Lakers.

That pick has too much upside, and it’s most likely floor is 10.  Adding that to Rozier and this year’s pick to move up to the 6-9 range is just too much.

Fair points.  I see where you’re coming from. I don’t know the Kings well enough to know what they might do. They’re the Kings, they could screw it up. Then again, every now and then even a blind pig finds an acorn. They’re well under the cap, they’re (likely) adding Bagley, and their most talented players have another year of experience.

If the Kings had won two more games this year they’d have finished 9th - which you said gives them a 77% chance to be 9th or 10th, in a draft that (so far) isn’t thought to contain good bigs. Even the most likely outcome in your intermediate scenario is a pick in the 6-8 range (59%). To get Carter this year we’d a trade with Orlando (6) or Chicago (7); using Rozier to eliminate the uncertainty in pick order and in players coming out next year seems reasonable to me for this Celtics team. Getting the player we want, at a position of need, and at the time we want makes sense even if we give some upside possibility. And honestly, if Carter actually reached his ceiling and became Horford we’d be happy no matter where next year’s pick landed. Nobody sees the next LeBron or Davis in next year’s class.

You do convince me we should really try not to add our first - and maybe we can extract a second from them :)

« Last Edit: June 20, 2018, 07:45:06 PM by Sophomore »

Offline JHTruth

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I anticipate an achingly dull Draft night. We'll all be here tomorrow discussing the awesomeness of Grayson Allen..

Offline Sophomore

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I anticipate an achingly dull Draft night. We'll all be here tomorrow discussing the awesomeness of Grayson Allen..
This seems like the most likely outcome.

Offline CelticsElite

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I anticipate an achingly dull Draft night. We'll all be here tomorrow discussing the awesomeness of Grayson Allen..
how is Grayson Allen dull? Hes a beast

Offline tazzmaniac

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If we could get Carter with Rozier, our 1st, and the Kings pick, I would do it.

I think the most likely outcome for the Sacto pick is 7-12 next year.

Why not get a comparable pick this year at a position of need? His floor seems pretty high - already has an NBA-ready body and some perimeter game, high BBIQ, willing defender. He might plug in for 10-15 minutes right away and be ready to replace Al in 2 years when (if we are lucky) Jaylen will have earned a fat contract.

Whoa, I’m a huge Wendell Carter fan, but the Kings pick is a bridge too far.  I think the Memphis pick is also too much.  The highest I’d go is Rozier, #27, and next year’s 1st with top-4 protection.
Not a chance the Sacramento pick isn't in play. It's the first of a few assets heading out if DA trades that far up.

Shouldn’t be with Rozier and this year’s pick already included, at least not for anything outside the top 5, which is where Carter projects to.

Are we allowed to add some more protections to the Kings Pick, like we give them that pick and make it protected 2-5 for US? Otherwise, I don't see a team like Orlando doing it unless the Kings Pick is included to be honest, or at least one of the Kings/Grizzlies Picks.

Nope, as already answered earlier today in the Luka Doncic thread.   :)

Ah okay, thanks. And I never checked that thread today so didn't know

I think people are overvaluing the Sacramento pick. If they hadn’t won the lottery this year, they would’ve picked what, 7th? While they might win the lottery again or decline, I don’t know we would expect that. They’re adding the second pick, and they have no incentive to tank. If they win even a few more games they could be 10th or 12th.

To me, Getting the seventh pick this year as a sure thing, and getting a guy we need, is pretty good value compared to the uncertainty of the Sacramento pic. The other thing that will make this pic hard to use, which I don’t think people are fully taking into account is the downside risk of Sacramento actually wins the lottery. A general manager who turns this year’s seven pick  into next years 25th or 26th is going to have some explaining to do. I am not sure what kind of protection we can offer – probably it would need to be an additional pick.

More than usual this past season there seems like there was a big cluster of bad teams at the bottom of the league.  The Kings only finished 6 games behind the worst team in the league, the Suns.  I wouldn’t be surprised if some of those teams like the Suns (with a healthy Booker), the Grizzlies (a healthy Conley), the Mavs, and Bulls leapfrog them.  The Kings aren’t really much different than the Hawks and Magic so anything can happen.  Also some of the vets that helped like Zach Randolph might move on to better teams.

The other thing people forget is that this years team was lycky. By next rating they were bottom 3, they won close,games at a huge rate relative to talent. Not a trend that likely to continue next year. If they more or less stand pat that will regress and they will be bad. As for their puck, im not worried. No  rookie this year is adding a big boost to winning.
The Kings had an incentive to lose this season.  Next season they don't.  They may be bottom 5 going into the all-star game but then the other bad teams are going to start tanking.  There is also the issue of the pick being #1 protected. 

Let's say the Kings finish 5th worst record next season.  The lottery odds break down as: 

#1 pick:         10.5%  reverts to Sixers pick likely to be mid 20s
#2-#5 pick:    31.6% 
#6-#9 pick:    57.9% 

That's just not that valuable of a pick at this point especially since everyone continues to say that next year's draft class doesn't look good at this point.

Is the top of next year’s draft really that bad though?  Barrett, Reddish, Williamson, and maybe couple others look to have elite talent.
Johnathan Givony (formerly DraftExpress) on yesterday's Lowe Podcast said again that the 2019 class looks weak.  At this point, Barrett and Reddish would probably go top 10 in the 2018 draft and maybe Williamson would too. 


Offline Rondo9

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If we could get Carter with Rozier, our 1st, and the Kings pick, I would do it.

I think the most likely outcome for the Sacto pick is 7-12 next year.

Why not get a comparable pick this year at a position of need? His floor seems pretty high - already has an NBA-ready body and some perimeter game, high BBIQ, willing defender. He might plug in for 10-15 minutes right away and be ready to replace Al in 2 years when (if we are lucky) Jaylen will have earned a fat contract.

Whoa, I’m a huge Wendell Carter fan, but the Kings pick is a bridge too far.  I think the Memphis pick is also too much.  The highest I’d go is Rozier, #27, and next year’s 1st with top-4 protection.
Not a chance the Sacramento pick isn't in play. It's the first of a few assets heading out if DA trades that far up.

Shouldn’t be with Rozier and this year’s pick already included, at least not for anything outside the top 5, which is where Carter projects to.

Are we allowed to add some more protections to the Kings Pick, like we give them that pick and make it protected 2-5 for US? Otherwise, I don't see a team like Orlando doing it unless the Kings Pick is included to be honest, or at least one of the Kings/Grizzlies Picks.

Nope, as already answered earlier today in the Luka Doncic thread.   :)

Ah okay, thanks. And I never checked that thread today so didn't know

I think people are overvaluing the Sacramento pick. If they hadn’t won the lottery this year, they would’ve picked what, 7th? While they might win the lottery again or decline, I don’t know we would expect that. They’re adding the second pick, and they have no incentive to tank. If they win even a few more games they could be 10th or 12th.

To me, Getting the seventh pick this year as a sure thing, and getting a guy we need, is pretty good value compared to the uncertainty of the Sacramento pic. The other thing that will make this pic hard to use, which I don’t think people are fully taking into account is the downside risk of Sacramento actually wins the lottery. A general manager who turns this year’s seven pick  into next years 25th or 26th is going to have some explaining to do. I am not sure what kind of protection we can offer – probably it would need to be an additional pick.

More than usual this past season there seems like there was a big cluster of bad teams at the bottom of the league.  The Kings only finished 6 games behind the worst team in the league, the Suns.  I wouldn’t be surprised if some of those teams like the Suns (with a healthy Booker), the Grizzlies (a healthy Conley), the Mavs, and Bulls leapfrog them.  The Kings aren’t really much different than the Hawks and Magic so anything can happen.  Also some of the vets that helped like Zach Randolph might move on to better teams.

The other thing people forget is that this years team was lycky. By next rating they were bottom 3, they won close,games at a huge rate relative to talent. Not a trend that likely to continue next year. If they more or less stand pat that will regress and they will be bad. As for their puck, im not worried. No  rookie this year is adding a big boost to winning.
The Kings had an incentive to lose this season.  Next season they don't.  They may be bottom 5 going into the all-star game but then the other bad teams are going to start tanking.  There is also the issue of the pick being #1 protected. 

Let's say the Kings finish 5th worst record next season.  The lottery odds break down as: 

#1 pick:         10.5%  reverts to Sixers pick likely to be mid 20s
#2-#5 pick:    31.6% 
#6-#9 pick:    57.9% 

That's just not that valuable of a pick at this point especially since everyone continues to say that next year's draft class doesn't look good at this point.

The kings will still stink regardless if they have an incentive to tank or not.

Offline Cman

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clickbait.
Not going to happen.
Someone's just trying to drive up the value of their own pick but saying Boston is interested in trading up.
Celtics fan for life.

Offline tazzmaniac

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If we could get Carter with Rozier, our 1st, and the Kings pick, I would do it.

I think the most likely outcome for the Sacto pick is 7-12 next year.

Why not get a comparable pick this year at a position of need? His floor seems pretty high - already has an NBA-ready body and some perimeter game, high BBIQ, willing defender. He might plug in for 10-15 minutes right away and be ready to replace Al in 2 years when (if we are lucky) Jaylen will have earned a fat contract.

Whoa, I’m a huge Wendell Carter fan, but the Kings pick is a bridge too far.  I think the Memphis pick is also too much.  The highest I’d go is Rozier, #27, and next year’s 1st with top-4 protection.
Not a chance the Sacramento pick isn't in play. It's the first of a few assets heading out if DA trades that far up.

Shouldn’t be with Rozier and this year’s pick already included, at least not for anything outside the top 5, which is where Carter projects to.

Are we allowed to add some more protections to the Kings Pick, like we give them that pick and make it protected 2-5 for US? Otherwise, I don't see a team like Orlando doing it unless the Kings Pick is included to be honest, or at least one of the Kings/Grizzlies Picks.

Nope, as already answered earlier today in the Luka Doncic thread.   :)

Ah okay, thanks. And I never checked that thread today so didn't know

I think people are overvaluing the Sacramento pick. If they hadn’t won the lottery this year, they would’ve picked what, 7th? While they might win the lottery again or decline, I don’t know we would expect that. They’re adding the second pick, and they have no incentive to tank. If they win even a few more games they could be 10th or 12th.

To me, Getting the seventh pick this year as a sure thing, and getting a guy we need, is pretty good value compared to the uncertainty of the Sacramento pic. The other thing that will make this pic hard to use, which I don’t think people are fully taking into account is the downside risk of Sacramento actually wins the lottery. A general manager who turns this year’s seven pick  into next years 25th or 26th is going to have some explaining to do. I am not sure what kind of protection we can offer – probably it would need to be an additional pick.

More than usual this past season there seems like there was a big cluster of bad teams at the bottom of the league.  The Kings only finished 6 games behind the worst team in the league, the Suns.  I wouldn’t be surprised if some of those teams like the Suns (with a healthy Booker), the Grizzlies (a healthy Conley), the Mavs, and Bulls leapfrog them.  The Kings aren’t really much different than the Hawks and Magic so anything can happen.  Also some of the vets that helped like Zach Randolph might move on to better teams.

The other thing people forget is that this years team was lycky. By next rating they were bottom 3, they won close,games at a huge rate relative to talent. Not a trend that likely to continue next year. If they more or less stand pat that will regress and they will be bad. As for their puck, im not worried. No  rookie this year is adding a big boost to winning.
The Kings had an incentive to lose this season.  Next season they don't.  They may be bottom 5 going into the all-star game but then the other bad teams are going to start tanking.  There is also the issue of the pick being #1 protected. 

Let's say the Kings finish 5th worst record next season.  The lottery odds break down as: 

#1 pick:         10.5%  reverts to Sixers pick likely to be mid 20s
#2-#5 pick:    31.6% 
#6-#9 pick:    57.9% 

That's just not that valuable of a pick at this point especially since everyone continues to say that next year's draft class doesn't look good at this point.

The kings will still stink regardless if they have an incentive to tank or not.
They stunk this year and only finished with the 7th worst record.