Ugh. I hate threads like this (sarcasm) because I'm still trying to forget that Ainge somehow took Brown over Kris Dunn *facepalm*. Not helping, Rollie, lol .
I agree with you there. Kris Dunn could end up haunting the Celtics. Guy looked great in the summer league.
He kinda should... He's 22 and a half years old. Brown won't even turn 20 until the season starts.
Plus SL always favors fast, ball dominant guards.
That last bit is most likely true, but I don't agree about the age thing, at all. So what if Dunn is 22 and Brown is 20? Yeah, I get that Dunn obviously has more experience, but he also has this thing called skill . Take age out of the equation and just look at the players, for the most part, imo. Milwaukee demonstrated how to draft this past year, imo, taking guys on both ends of the spectrum - Thon Maker, 19, and Malcolm Brogdon, 23 (he'll be 24 in December). Just because a guy is younger doesn't mean that he'll become what so-and-so was at a certain age. They have to have the skills and the work ethic to even make that an argument, imo. Look at James Young versus Rodney Hood. Sure, Young averaged more points than Hood did at almost the same age, but Young played on a stacked Kentucky team and had neither the skills nor work ethic/desire to become anywhere near the player that Hood was in college, never mind the NBA, but I don't want to talk about any of this, anymore. Hopefully, Brown will make me eat my words .
It's almost like Kris Dunn has had 2.5 more years of existence on Earth to work on his game. Age is a huge factor in development. Look at AD as a 20 yr old and AD as a 22 yr old. It's night and day.
IMHO age is perhaps one of the most overrated aspect when considering draft prospects.
Is it a factor? Absolutely.
But people talk about it as if it is THE factor. The BIGGEST factor. Perhaps even the ONLY factor. That's just silly.
The most important factors are things like physical attributes, skills, personality traits. What DIES the player have or what CAN the player do that other guys at his position can't do - or at least can't do to the same degree
Some people look aqt Dunn and see 22 year old who isn't a good shooter and who has an injury history.
I look at Dunn and see a point guard who (relative to his position) has above average height, exceptional length, exceptional strength, elite athleticism, outstanding ball handling skills, elite slashing ability, very good passing instincts, outstanding rebounding ability, elite defensive ability, an elite motor and excellent work ethic.
If I look at Dunn I would say that his size, length, strength, athleticism, handles, rebounding, defense and slashing ability are all areas in which he would have a potential advantage against NBA point guards RIGHT NOW.
I see a kid who has all of the qualities I just listed, at the age of 22, and I ask myself - how can this kid be anything less then an exceptional prospect?
If I look at Jaylen Brown I see a guy who (relatively to his position) has average height, above average length, exceptional strength, elite athleticism, elite slashing ability, outstanding rebounding ability, an elite motor and excellent work ethic.
If I look at Brown I would say that his athleticism, strength, rebounding and slashing ability are areas in which he could have a potential advantage against NBA players at his position RIGHT NOW.
I think of a kid who has those attributes at the age of 19 and I say - he's a guy with some legit upside, but still a ways to go. Most of his upsides are physical (length, strength, athleticism, etc) - his only standout skills right now really are his rebounding and slashing. He's your typical very raw, highly athletic type of prospect.
See. when you look at Brown you say that there is a lot of hope that (given his youth, work ethic and motor) he'll really develop some of his skills over the next 2-3 years and become a really nice player.
Then I look at Dunn and I say there's no need to hope, because he ALREADY both the physical talent AND the skill to go with it.
I'm going to be silly and use the "NBA 2K" game as an example here.
Rookie A: Age = 19 / overall rating = 67 (role player)
Rookie B: Age = 22 / overall rating = 74 (solid starter)
Now can draft Rookie A knowing that he's very young, and hoping that in 2-3 years he'll grow into a solid starter with plenty of untapped potential still remaining.
Or you can draft Rookie B who is a couple of years older, but is already a solid starter with plenty of untapped potential still remaining.
Both players have high potential, and both players WILL improve dramatically from where they are now over the course of their careers. The only way I see an advantage in being patient with the younger player is is you are utterly convinced that he has a significantly higher 'ceiling', and that he'll develop so much faster then Player B that he will over take him in the next 2-5 years.
Now I know real life is not a game, and I'm not trying to suggest it is - just using this example to illustrate my point that it doesn't matter if Brown is 19 and Dunn is 22. What matters is how good Brown is when he is 23, versus how good Dunn is when he is 23. Will Brown be better then Dunn at the same age? If so, will he be ENOUGH better to justify waiting the extra 3 or 4 years for him to reach that point?
What if Dunn ends up as John Wall 2.0 and Brown ends up Jae Crowder 2.0 - would you guys be content with that end result? Because as much as I like Crowder as a nice starter, I'd be pretty bummed if I know we took him when we could have had John Wall. I'd still be happy having Crowder, but I wouldn't be able to help feeling a bit like "if only we got Wall...".