2024 NFL Draft

[Vermont Green]

The New England Patriots haven’t hidden their willingness to listen to trade offers for the No. 3 overall pick of the 2024 NFL draft, but per ESPN’s Adam Schefter, multiple teams, including the Minnesota Vikings, have attempted to move up.

Sitting at No. 3, the Patriots have a ton of leverage in one of the rare drafts where three of the top quarterbacks could easily be considered the No. 1 overall pick.

Drake Maye or Jayden Daniels are expected to be available on the board, and those are two high-end prospects every quarterback-needy team in the NFL would love to have a crack at.

The problem for those teams is the fact that the Patriots desperately need a quarterback as well. So this isn’t a situation of them looking to force a trade before they’re on the clock on Thursday night. The Patriots would be happy to stay put and get their quarterback of the future, unless some outlandish trade offer wows them enough to move down the board.

Schefter wrote:

The Patriots, slated to pick No. 3, also have been fielding calls from teams. It would take a big offer for New England to move off that spot knowing it needs to come out of Round 1 with a quarterback, but the team has listened. And the Vikings, among others, have attempted to move up.

Tom E. Curran claimed he believes it could take “a lot more” than three first-round draft picks to get the Patriots to agree to trade the No. 3 pick. For a team like the Vikings, one has to wonder if they’d need to include All-Pro wide receiver Justin Jefferson in a package to get a deal done.

I don't buy the speculation in the last paragraph, but it does sound like there's a ton of interest in moving up.

I think you are right, it is nothing more than speculation, but would you trade #3 (assume Maye is available) for Jefferson and #11 (assume that McCarthy is available)?

[green_bballers13]

The New England Patriots haven’t hidden their willingness to listen to trade offers for the No. 3 overall pick of the 2024 NFL draft, but per ESPN’s Adam Schefter, multiple teams, including the Minnesota Vikings, have attempted to move up.

Sitting at No. 3, the Patriots have a ton of leverage in one of the rare drafts where three of the top quarterbacks could easily be considered the No. 1 overall pick.

Drake Maye or Jayden Daniels are expected to be available on the board, and those are two high-end prospects every quarterback-needy team in the NFL would love to have a crack at.

The problem for those teams is the fact that the Patriots desperately need a quarterback as well. So this isn’t a situation of them looking to force a trade before they’re on the clock on Thursday night. The Patriots would be happy to stay put and get their quarterback of the future, unless some outlandish trade offer wows them enough to move down the board.

Schefter wrote:

The Patriots, slated to pick No. 3, also have been fielding calls from teams. It would take a big offer for New England to move off that spot knowing it needs to come out of Round 1 with a quarterback, but the team has listened. And the Vikings, among others, have attempted to move up.

Tom E. Curran claimed he believes it could take “a lot more” than three first-round draft picks to get the Patriots to agree to trade the No. 3 pick. For a team like the Vikings, one has to wonder if they’d need to include All-Pro wide receiver Justin Jefferson in a package to get a deal done.

I don't buy the speculation in the last paragraph, but it does sound like there's a ton of interest in moving up.

I think you are right, it is nothing more than speculation, but would you trade #3 (assume Maye is available) for Jefferson and #11 (assume that McCarthy is available)?

No- Jefferson isn't signed long term. He chose to go to LSU vs Penn State, Michigan, or other cold weather college football teams. I would imagine that he would once again choose a better team down south vs the Patriots. Houston, Atlanta, Dallas, etc would be better fits for Jefferson.

[Moranis]

How many these QBs will flop? Happen every year, teams goes crazy on getting a QB then 3-4 years later they are release or traded..I really don’t see any of these QBs being stars but never know

Probability says some will flop, but then you look at a draft like 2020 where all four first round QBs have been successful.  (Burrow, Tua, Herbert, Love)

the problem with QB is NFL teams take them well before they should because they are so important.  So they overdraft them and put unrealistic expectations on them by doing so. The first 3 picks will be a QB, but Williams is the only one rated as a top 4 player in this draft, ad an example.

I'm curious, whose final draft ratings are you looking at?  What did their top-five look like?  I'm assuming 1. Williams 2. Harrison.  Who did they have next?  Nabers?  Alt?

It's weird to me how many analysts' "big boards" shift after the season is over.  Mock drafts are based on need, but the player rankings shouldn't shift too much unless somebody does something exceptional at the combine.

ESPN best available.  They have Williams, Harrison, Nabers, Alt. Daniels is 5th and Maye is 6th then Turner and Odunze. CBS has Fashanu 4th, Maye 5th, and Daniels 6th. They have McCarthy 20th

[Phantom255x]

I think all the trade talk stuff with #3 is a smokescreen. Come Thursday, Pats take a QB at 3.

I wouldn't rule out though them potentially trading #34 and future pick(s) to move up into the mid-to-late first round (around 20-30 range) to maybe get an OT or WR.

[johnnygreen]

Let's assume the Vikings want Maye and have been trying to get that 3rd pick. The problem from the Patriots perspective is not knowing who will be available with picks 11 and 23. What if the Pats pick Maye, simply because they like him. Hypothetically, the Vikings at 11 pick Rome Odunze and get a tackle at 23, and Penix is still available. Wouldn't this suddenly turn into an ideal scenario for the Patriots? They trade Maye for Odunze, the tackle, and the 2025 1st round pick. The Pats then include the '25 1st from Minnesota and pick 34 to move up to grab Penix. In this case, the Pats get their QB, a #1 type receiver, and a starting left tackle.

I guess my point is to not trade the #3 pick before the draft, but possibly make the trade when the players involved are known.

[Moranis]

If the Pats like Maye and Daniels as franchise players then they shouldn't trade. If they don't they should.

[Roy H.]

If the Pats like Maye and Daniels as franchise players then they shouldn't trade. If they don't they should.

Pretty much.  I'd add McCarthy to that mix, as well.  If they think he's the guy, just take him rather than trying to trade back for value.

[Donoghus]

Interesting chart posted by Schefter this morning.

https://twitter.com/AdamSchefter/status/1783084094001172969

[Vermont Green]

Very interesting that first round WRs is the lowest hit rate.  I guess a player could not get a second contract because they aren't that good or also because the are a FA and get a better offer?

I am fine with taking WRs in the second and third round.  Best case in my mind, assuming we keep the current picks, is QB with the first pick, OL with the second pick, and then a WR or other positions.

[Roy H.]

Very interesting that first round WRs is the lowest hit rate.  I guess a player could not get a second contract because they aren't that good or also because the are a FA and get a better offer?

I am fine with taking WRs in the second and third round.  Best case in my mind, assuming we keep the current picks, is QB with the first pick, OL with the second pick, and then a WR or other positions.

Good point.  A guy like Roquan Smith comes to mind.  He gave the Bears five excellent years, but they weren't going to pay him.  So, he got traded. 

I'd probably change the criteria a bit in terms of what a hit is.

[Donoghus]

Looking back at first round WRs the past decade or so, it's littered with busts.   Talk about a tough position to gauge.

Just from an odds standpoint, it's more likely than not that you'll see a bust or two from just Harrison/Nabors/Odunze.   Good luck guessing which one(s) though.

[Roy H.]

Just from an odds standpoint, it's more likely than not that you'll see a bust or two from just Harrison/Nabors/Odunze.   Good luck guessing which one(s) though.

Yeah, they all look like studs.  But, I also remember when Charles Johnson was "can't miss".  David Terrell, Kevin White, Justin Blackmon, Sammy Watkins...

The Athletic charted success rates for WRs as well:





https://theathletic.com/5405843/2024/04/10/odds-a-first-round-wr-busts-scoop-city/

[footey]

If the Pats like Maye and Daniels as franchise players then they shouldn't trade. If they don't they should.

Agree.  All this trade down nonsense I'm not buying.  Pats have no pressure. Both of those QBs seem very solid. Just take the one that Washington passes on.  Washington has more pressure than NE.  Easy peasy. 

[Phantom255x]

FWIW, Breer is pretty plugged into Pats stuff and he says he's pretty confident in saying the Pats will take Maye at 3.

Mayesachusetts! 

[Moranis]

Very interesting that first round WRs is the lowest hit rate.  I guess a player could not get a second contract because they aren't that good or also because the are a FA and get a better offer?

I am fine with taking WRs in the second and third round.  Best case in my mind, assuming we keep the current picks, is QB with the first pick, OL with the second pick, and then a WR or other positions.

Good point.  A guy like Roquan Smith comes to mind.  He gave the Bears five excellent years, but they weren't going to pay him.  So, he got traded. 

I'd probably change the criteria a bit in terms of what a hit is.

calling Smith a miss because he was traded seems odd.