This will be a long explanation why I'm advocating for Bjelica (I'm sorry I know it beforehand, can't help myself), so let's just start with my trade proposal (
):
To Boston Celtics: Nemanja Bjelica
To Sacramento Kings: Grant Williams + Vincent Poirieror if Sacramento would accept it (much preferred):To Boston Celtics: Nemanja Bjelica
To Sacramento Kings: Carsen Edwards + Javonte Green + Vincent Poirier + '20 Boston pickPoirier is salaryfiller. I think Sacramento would insist on Grant Williams or another promising prospect. Since Grant has been hot lately his trading value could be trending up. Even though Langford is a huge question mark I believe his ceiling is much higher than that of Grant Williams, who will always have problems guarding and rebounding in the post due to lack of height, so I'm not looking to trade Langford (or Robert Williams, who I favor as well).
Even though I much prefer the second proposal, it's always the case that you have to give up something valuable to get something, so probably the second proposal isn't realistic.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Like, I believe, many other fans the Celtics are doing better than expected. Even though it's all really close in the East from 2-6 and the Celtics only have the 8th best record currently there's a lot to like. Of the 13 teams that are reasonable locks for the playoffs (see standings) the
Celtics have the 3rd best point differential (with the Bucks being a massive outlier on top) and are
5th in OR and 4th in DR.
All that while the Celtics hardly ever played with all their main rotation players available. That might be true for a lot of other teams as well, but we can all agree that the Celtics' bench is not deep and that missing one or two key players makes us vulnerable. So that makes me quite optimistic about the level the Celtics can reach with a healthy squad. I think it's dumb to get discouraged by the amazing numbers the Bucks are producing like the Warriors in past years.
How can we improve the team? Obtaining an All Star level big (Davis, Embiid, Gobert, Jokic, Towns) or a superstar wing (Antetokounmpo, Leonard, James, George, Siakam(?), Doncic) would be great, but also very unrealistic. So what weaknesses can we address? We don't have a center or a big wing to guard either previously named superstar or Khris Middleton (LOL).
But I actually don't think there are elite defensive centers out there who are significantly better than Theis and worth the cost. Apart from other All Stars I rate Anunoby (Raptors) and Isaac (Magic) very highly as defensive specialists, but I don't see why these teams would give them up to us. I like Bonga (Wizards) for the future, but right now he's probably not better than Ojeleye. So that leaves us with the conclusion that the Celtics won't have a player who's able to contain any opposing superstar.
That sounds discouraging, but the Celtics just have to defend by committee like they have always done (although I admit not having Horford anymore on that end is still a challenge). One area that has been a point of concern for years: rebounding, has been addressed quite well (
6th in DREB and 4th in OREB of all current playoff teams). Another issue has always been (3-point) shooting, which I find quite strange as I believe that should be a strength of a team that has 4 capable scorers on all three levels.
Right now the Celtics are 14th overall in 3-point-shooting-percentage and 9th of current playoff teams, so very average. But that might not give a true picture of our capabilities come playoff time as we've seen some role players (G.Williams, Edwards, Theis, Green, Waters) struggle immensely with their shot. They have become better during the season or won't play when it matters.
Over the last 10 games the Celtics are actually 6th overall in 3-point-shooting.
However, knowing coach Stevens' system many of us are afraid that even if we can play with the big guns we'll shoot ourselves out of it by bricking 3-pointers like we've done in previous post-seasons like most notably against the Cavs in the 2018 conference finals.
Let's recall the 3-point numbers during that series (Baynes excluded, since he took only 4 shots):Rozier: 7,3 attempts on 25,5% (brutally bad)
Brown: 6,7 attempts on 36,2% (good)
Smart: 4,4 attempts on 22,6% (terrible)
Morris: 4,0 attempts on 46,4%(superb)
Tatum: 3,7 attempts on 34,6% (mediocre)
Horford: 2,6 attempts on 33,3% (mediocre)
Ojeleye: 1,4 attempts on 14,3% (terrible)So with three of those players gone it's already a different team. Smart (and Ojeleye???) has improved his 3-point-shot, while Walker (39% playoff-career) and Hayward (37% playoff-career) are reliable additions from distance. I agree with the notion that the Celtics currently have seven playoff-worthy rotation players. If we exclude the centers Kanter and Theis, the other guys are shooting for the season (makes/percentage):
Walker (3,5/39,4%), Smart (2,3/35,0%), Tatum (2,4/36,6%), Brown (2,1/39,1%) and Hayward (1,5/36,8%). So Walker is absolutely elite, while the others are doing okay or quite well. While it seems illogical to go for another wing, that's exactly how I think the Celtics can make a big improvement by not having to play a player regularly who doesn't add much, is inexperienced or a possible liability from the perimeter. Embrace the 3-point-shot and make it a big weapon that opens up the court.
A player that has been named on this blog is Davis Bertans, who has a very impressive season, but he's a free agent this off-season and if I'm correct we wouldn't be allowed to re-sign him for more than the “Non-Bird”-exception (120% of his current 7 million salary) which won't be enough. Nemanja Bjelica on the other hand has a teamfriendly contract for next year as well (7,1 mln).
Bjelica is a player who's flying a bit under the radar, but could fit right in the system. Lets look at his season and career stats, which are very (perhaps surprisingly) good. Bjelica is a 6-10 - 235, power forward, 31 years old and it is his 5th year in the NBA.
Over the last 3 seasons, mr Bjelica has shown to be a very good shooter (3P: 644 shots at 41,5%, 2P: 758 shots at 52,9% and FT: 189 shots at 79,9%, which is around 59 TS%), a capable passer 349 assists/202 TO and a good rebounder with a 19,3 DRB%. While advanced stats suggest that he's an adequate defender.
(source: basketball-reference)For the season Bjelica is averaging over 45 games:
28 MPG / 12,4 PPG / 6,5 REB / 2,6 ASS. More details:
2,0 3FGM per game at 43,1%, an 1,71 ASS/TO ratio, 18,4 DREB% and 60,6 TS%
(source: nba.com)If we filter all NBA-players (minimum 15 games, >1 3FGM, >35 3P%, >1,4 A/T ratio, >15 DREB%) we're left with a small group: Bjelica, Ariza, Hayward, O'Neale, Ingram, Aldridge, Towns, Ingram, Leonard, T. Harris and Gallinari.
However this was a light filter, since the numbers by Bjelica are far better. Increase them just a little bit (>1 3FGM, >37 3P%, >1,5 A/T ratio, >16 DREB%) and the only other player in the NBA who fits those criteria is Danilo Gallinari (who's a worse rebounder and defender). I know that Bjelica is a role player, so I'm obviously not saying he's better than those players or some star, since taking on a bigger role on offense will decrease efficiency. But I think this is indicative that Bjelica is an underrated player.
Generally buy-out signings are overrated and won't net you a positive contributor (remember Greg Monroe), although the mentioned trade would open roster spot(s). Perhaps Biyombo, Mahinmi or Henson becomes available to be signed for depth at the center position.
The Celtics rotation would be quite simple (guards: Walker, Brown, Smart / wings: Tatum, Hayward, Bjelica / center: Theis, Kanter), where Wanamaker, Ojeleye and Timelord are emergency back-ups.
If you have read this till the end: thank you