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Was Marcus a hit pick?

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Author Topic: So, after all is said and done, is Marcus a "hit" draft pick  (Read 16366 times)

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Re: So, after all is said and done, is Marcus a "hit" draft pick
« Reply #60 on: July 20, 2018, 04:14:56 PM »

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This seems a little like silly business. The guy just got 52 with no leverage at all.

Any pick you want to stick around that bad is a great pick.

Re: So, after all is said and done, is Marcus a "hit" draft pick
« Reply #61 on: July 20, 2018, 04:18:42 PM »

Offline Fafnir

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This seems a little like silly business. The guy just got 52 with no leverage at all.
The more I see about how his teammates reacted to him resigning and how much the team values him as a leader from reporters the more I see that aspect as "the leverage" that got him the deal in the end.

It seems to be the same money as was offered prior to this season, they could have turned the screws and lowered it.

Re: So, after all is said and done, is Marcus a "hit" draft pick
« Reply #62 on: July 20, 2018, 06:25:11 PM »

Offline colincb

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Smart is a single or a walk.
So a hit?  ;)

Anyone thinking he's a hit is reaching.
I'd say that the people who think freaking TJ Warren and Rodney Hood are better than him are reaching lol.

The average outcome of the 6th pick in the draft is pretty well in line with what Smart is, I'm happy to consider than a hit. A miss is a bust like Nik Stauskis, Alex Len, or Anthony Bennet. A home run is Dame Lillard, CJ McCollum, Giannis, etc.

That's my personal way to grade picks, getting someone who can play matters quite a bit.

I expect a starter with a pick in the 6-10 range. Rotation player 10-20. A wish and a prayer thereafter. I don't think Smart's a starter on a good team

I also think there's an element of insurance in Smart's contract with possibly KI and TR gone.

Re: So, after all is said and done, is Marcus a "hit" draft pick
« Reply #63 on: July 20, 2018, 06:48:45 PM »

Offline hpantazo

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He hasn't exactly lived up to what I thought he'd be coming out of college but I'd mark him down in the hit category.  Important role player on a strong basketball team and one of the best defenders in the league.  Just secured a 2nd contract of 4 years/$52 million. 

That's not a miss.
http://www.basketballinsiders.com/history-of-the-nba-draft-by-pick/history-of-the-nba-draft-pick-number-6/

Not even close to a miss. The amount of times you don't even get a rotation player out of high pick like 6 is shocking.

Wow! From that list, basically other than Larry Bird and Damien Lillard, everyone drafted at #6 in the history of the NBA would be considered a bust by some people on here based on how they are rating Smart.
« Last Edit: July 20, 2018, 06:55:36 PM by hpantazo »

Re: So, after all is said and done, is Marcus a "hit" draft pick
« Reply #64 on: July 20, 2018, 07:03:38 PM »

Offline Eja117

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I said no. I just don't think you go for a backup with the 6th pick. He's not even really a 6th man.

Re: So, after all is said and done, is Marcus a "hit" draft pick
« Reply #65 on: July 20, 2018, 07:13:30 PM »

Online rondofan1255

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Was Olynyk a hit too?

Ask the Heat.

It's hard to consider a role player a hit at #6. If Tony Allen had been picked at #6 instead of #25, I wouldn't call him a hit.
why? Smart is a key role player for a contending team . Without his defense, we wouldn’t have achieved what we did last season

How high then would a player of Smart's caliber have to be picked to be considered NOT a hit? Is Evan Turner or Marvin Williams a hit at #2? Both have had long successful careers. Jeff Green at #5? In this thread, lots of differing expectations for what is considered a hit, such as borderline all-star+, good starter, or good role player. A miss isn't the same as a bust IMO...the #6 list posted above shows how a large % of picks don't meet our expectations.


Re: So, after all is said and done, is Marcus a "hit" draft pick
« Reply #66 on: July 20, 2018, 07:50:22 PM »

Offline CelticsElite

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Was Olynyk a hit too?

Ask the Heat.

It's hard to consider a role player a hit at #6. If Tony Allen had been picked at #6 instead of #25, I wouldn't call him a hit.
why? Smart is a key role player for a contending team . Without his defense, we wouldn’t have achieved what we did last season

How high then would a player of Smart's caliber have to be picked to be considered NOT a hit? Is Evan Turner or Marvin Williams a hit at #2? Both have had long successful careers. Jeff Green at #5? In this thread, lots of differing expectations for what is considered a hit, such as borderline all-star+, good starter, or good role player. A miss isn't the same as a bust IMO...the #6 list posted above shows how a large % of picks don't meet our expectations.
i think draft position is meaningless. Smart could have easily been a bust like 70% of those chosen at the 6 spot. We got a rotation player and one of the best defenders in the game. That’s a hit. Its not a homerun but it is very good

Re: So, after all is said and done, is Marcus a "hit" draft pick
« Reply #67 on: July 20, 2018, 08:17:06 PM »

Offline mr. dee

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He was a miss.  In a redraft he doesn't go 6 or better and probably doesn't even go in the top 10.  He is a fine player and will have a fine career, but whether a draft pick hits or misses depends entirely on the draft and said player's position in the draft (his draft position compared to his re-draft position).  In that Smart was a miss.

Not trolling honest question, what's your top 10 in a redraft?

In order by original draft position (not redraft position)

Clearly ahead of Smart in a redraft
  • Wiggins
    Embiid
    Gordon
    Saric
    Capela
    Jokic

Likely ahead of Smart in a redraft
  • Parker
    Warren
    Nurkic
    G. Harris


Possibly ahead of Smart in a redraft
  • Randle
    LaVine
    Hood
    Bogdanovic
    Grant
    Clarkson

So I'd have him anywhere from 11-17 as being a reasonable spot.  When you are drafted 6 that is a miss.  I'm not saying it is a bust, but he should absolutely land higher than at best 11 to be considered a hit.

Looking at your list, and I'm seriously confused, but okay.

If you polled 30 GMs, there are at least 8 guys definitely ahead of Smart, maybe 10:

Embiid
Wiggins
Jokic
Harris
Gordon
Capela
Saric
LaVine
Nurkic
Warren

I'm not saying he's a miss, but you can't be a 'hit' if you don't outproduce your draft position or come very close, because if that's a hit, what is someone that actually becomes great or elite?

And this is why their team sucks, at least most of them. Since Smart was drafted, Celtics never looked back at the lottery. Not saying he's the main factor, but he certainly impacts team record.

Re: So, after all is said and done, is Marcus a "hit" draft pick
« Reply #68 on: July 20, 2018, 08:29:03 PM »

Offline hpantazo

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He was a miss.  In a redraft he doesn't go 6 or better and probably doesn't even go in the top 10.  He is a fine player and will have a fine career, but whether a draft pick hits or misses depends entirely on the draft and said player's position in the draft (his draft position compared to his re-draft position).  In that Smart was a miss.

Not trolling honest question, what's your top 10 in a redraft?

In order by original draft position (not redraft position)

Clearly ahead of Smart in a redraft
  • Wiggins
    Embiid
    Gordon
    Saric
    Capela
    Jokic

Likely ahead of Smart in a redraft
  • Parker
    Warren
    Nurkic
    G. Harris


Possibly ahead of Smart in a redraft
  • Randle
    LaVine
    Hood
    Bogdanovic
    Grant
    Clarkson

So I'd have him anywhere from 11-17 as being a reasonable spot.  When you are drafted 6 that is a miss.  I'm not saying it is a bust, but he should absolutely land higher than at best 11 to be considered a hit.

Looking at your list, and I'm seriously confused, but okay.

If you polled 30 GMs, there are at least 8 guys definitely ahead of Smart, maybe 10:

Embiid
Wiggins
Jokic
Harris
Gordon
Capela
Saric
LaVine
Nurkic
Warren

I'm not saying he's a miss, but you can't be a 'hit' if you don't outproduce your draft position or come very close, because if that's a hit, what is someone that actually becomes great or elite?

And this is why their team sucks, at least most of them. Since Smart was drafted, Celtics never looked back at the lottery. Not saying he's the main factor, but he certainly impacts team record.

These are the only guys who imo would be ahead of Smart in a redraft:

1) Embiid
2) Jokic
3) Wiggins
4) Capella (maybe)

That's it. 4 guys.


Re: So, after all is said and done, is Marcus a "hit" draft pick
« Reply #69 on: July 20, 2018, 08:56:33 PM »

Offline byennie

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Making the whole thing binary "hit" or "miss" makes the argument pretty impossible IMO.

Redraft logic is pretty flawed. It would result in reporting a lot more misses than hits in the lottery, because every draft has a few guys that were never ranked in the top-14 that end up being quality players. The valid expectation at #6 actually is NOT to get one of the top 6 players in the draft, on average.

If hit/miss = pass/fail, then it's a hit.
If hit/miss = top 6 player in the draft, then it's borderline.
If hit/miss = high level starter/ top-50 player, then it's probably a miss.

Re: So, after all is said and done, is Marcus a "hit" draft pick
« Reply #70 on: July 20, 2018, 10:14:41 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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Lavine or Wiggins over Smart sounds like a really good litmus test of your level of sophistication as a basketball fan.



Players from the 2014 draft I'd rather have on my team if I want to win games this year, setting aside salary:

Embiid
Jokic
Capela
Gary Harris
Dario Saric



Players I'd rather have over the next 4-5 years on a reasonable annual salary:


All of the above

Aaron Gordon
Bogdan Bogdanovic



Everybody else is either an empty calories guy right now (Warren, Wiggins, Lavine, Parker) with no guarantee of becoming a winning player, or is more of a 15-20 minute per game type of player. 

I went with Gordon because of his potential as a versatile defensive stretch 4, and I went with Bogdan because of skilled wings that can shoot and get to the line are so valuable.
« Last Edit: July 20, 2018, 10:24:31 PM by PhoSita »
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Re: So, after all is said and done, is Marcus a "hit" draft pick
« Reply #71 on: July 20, 2018, 10:26:32 PM »

Offline Vox_Populi

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Only guys I'd unquestionably take over Smart in a re-draft are Embiid, Gordon, Saric, Gary Harris and Jokic. In other words, he'd still go 6th for me - which is where the Celtics picked. So I'd absolutely consider him a hit at that spot.

Re: So, after all is said and done, is Marcus a "hit" draft pick
« Reply #72 on: July 20, 2018, 10:33:04 PM »

Offline jpotter33

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I said no. I just don't think you go for a backup with the 6th pick. He's not even really a 6th man.

“Not even really a sixth man?”

He was fifth in minutes, and while he came off the bench he was always playing in late-game situations. He’s the quintessential sixth man.

Re: So, after all is said and done, is Marcus a "hit" draft pick
« Reply #73 on: July 20, 2018, 11:06:05 PM »

Offline Eja117

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I said no. I just don't think you go for a backup with the 6th pick. He's not even really a 6th man.

“Not even really a sixth man?”

He was fifth in minutes, and while he came off the bench he was always playing in late-game situations. He’s the quintessential sixth man.
He's not one of the 6 best or most essential Celtics.  Or if he is it's by the skin of his teeth.

Re: So, after all is said and done, is Marcus a "hit" draft pick
« Reply #74 on: July 20, 2018, 11:41:37 PM »

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Of all the players we realistically would have picked with the 6th pick he is easily the best.
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