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Top 50 draft prospects summarized and ranked
« on: January 21, 2019, 02:18:55 AM »

Offline CelticsElite

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https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2815125-2019-nba-draft-big-board-rj-barrett-is-still-zion-williamsons-biggest-threat

 some of the players I like: kevin porter, bol bol, Alexander-Walker, jontay porter, Brandon clarke.

Don't like: keldon Johnson (bad passer. Not much offensive upside.) Hayes (we don't need a center that can't shoot). Doumbouya and hachimura.  Langford might be ok but has a lot of question marks.

-Alexander-walker is impressive. good shooter, good playmaker, good defender (leads acc in steals). Weakness is athleticism but Could be a nice wing addition


Ones relevant to us :

(tier 4)

16. Brandon Clarke (Gonzaga, PF/C, Junior)

Clarke's defensive potential and high floor earn him a top-15 ranking. He's been persuasive with his athletic ability and activity, as he's shooting 68.5 percent and averaging 4.7 blocks and 2.3 steals per 40 minutes.

Despite averaging 17.0 points (24.6 per 40 minutes), Clarke is missing a bankable scoring skill. But teams drafting in the mid-first round should still be drawn to his energizer potential, being the type of role player who can impact games with his relentless motor and bounce around the basket.

     

15. Jontay Porter (Missouri, C, Sophomore)

Medicals, plus the perceived strength of the other eligible NBA draft prospects, will determine where Porter goes in the first round. Given his age (he turns 20 in November) and lack of explosion to begin with, scouts shouldn't put too much stock in his torn ACL.

He generated enough interest last season with shooting touch, passing and shot-blocking. He'll likely be highlighted on draft boards as an attractive buy-low candidate, though we still feel he's worthy of lottery consideration, particularly in what's looking like a weaker 2019 field.

     

14. Nickeil Alexander-Walker (Virginia Tech, SG, Sophomore)

Alexander-Walker had been cruising before Wednesday's 1-of-13 effort. He'd made 41 of his previous 61 field-goal attempts, and he looked more comfortable and threatening inside the arc compared to last season.

He's quickly evolved into one of nation's top ball-screen scorers (91st percentile) while also shooting 47.4 percent on no-dribble jumpers out of spot-ups.

Already with 50 assists (49 last year), Alexander-Walker has added playmaking ability to his resume as well.

His lack of explosiveness is worth questioning, and he's only recorded one field goal out of isolation all season. But Alexander-Walker's new offensive versatility, consistent shooting and overall improvement have helped create a compelling case. 

     

13. Sekou Doumbouya (France, PF, 2000)

Out recovering from torn thumb ligaments, Doumbouya had started to build rhythm before going down, totaling 14 made field goals over his previous three games.

At 6'9", 230 pounds, he's still mostly tools and quickness over skill, but he's hit 10 threes and flashed glimpses of face-up moves, encouraging signs since he just turned 18 years old in December.

Defensive versatility, shooting potential and a large window to improve offensively are the selling points to Doumbouya, though limited shot-creation and scoring ability hint at more of a role-player ceiling.


(tier 3)

Tier 3: No. 12. Bol Bol (Oregon, C, Freshman)
The caution flags are flying now that Bol Bol's injury has been declared season-ending. There are always concerns tied to bigs with foot problems, and at 7'2" with rail-thin legs, Bol's durability will trigger debates across the NBA. But scouts were intrigued by his skill set that translated to 21.0 points and 13-of-25 three-point shooting. And though Bol will enter the draft recognized as a risky pick, it sounds as if interest will remain high, as long as doctors reveal a clean bill of health and that Bol is able to work out.

     

New developments

Expected to miss eight to 10 weeks, Bol should be back to work out for teams before the draft, an opportunity to resell scouts on his ball-handling and shooting.

     

Key Synergy stats

Post-ups: 84th percentile

Spot-ups: 97th percentile

Roll man: 25th percentile

Before going down, the 7'2" center was captivating for his unique shot-making out of the post and behind the arc. His fluidity and consistent execution made his early success convincing.

His lack of strength is worrisome. Can he finish through contact from NBA 5s? Defensively, tougher opponents were able to move him around the basket, and his effort and impact both fluctuated.

Still, Bol's abilities to stretch the floor, use the dribble, create from the post and block shots point to upside that will be tough for teams to resist once the other high-profile options are off the board.

No. 11. Keldon Johnson (Kentucky, SG/SF, Freshman

Trending: Stock steady

As a rock for Kentucky, Keldon Johnson hasn't moved much on our draft board since October. He's been anchored in the lottery discussion, scoring efficiently while shooting consistently and regularly playing with effort and intensity.

     

New developments

Johnson had a rare off game against Texas A&M last Tuesday, but he rebounded over the weekend, finishing with 15 points on eight shots in Kentucky's win over Vanderbilt.

     

Notable advanced stats

Spot-up: 84th percentile

Runner: 9-of-16

Assist percentage:  10.8

Johnson generates 32.7 percent of his offense out of spot-ups. On those possessions, he's shot 41.4 percent on no-dribble jumpers while converting a combined 14-of-22 runners and drives to the basket.

He shows little creativity in between. His low assist rate points to limited playmaking ability. He's also totaled four made field goals as an isolation and pick-and-roll scorer, raising questions about his offensive upside.

Still, his three-ball (39.6 percent) and defensive tools, plus his athleticism, strong frame and finishing touch in the key help paint Johnson as a safe first-round pick.


No. 10. Jaxson Hayes (Texas, C, Freshman
Trending: Upward into the lottery

Shooting 74.7 percent and blocking 13.0 percent of opponents two-point attempts, Jaxson Hayes is rising fast by playing to strengths that revolve exclusively around his tools, athleticism and hand-eye coordination. It's becoming easier to picture his effectiveness around the rim carrying over in the same role he has at Texas.

     

New developments

Hayes hasn't flashed any new skill; rather, he continues to be effective just by running the floor and diving to the basket. He combined for 28 points over Texas' last two games.

     

Notable advanced stats

Roll man: 92nd percentile

Cuts: 95th percentile

Jump shots: zero

With a monster catch radius, Hayes is a huge target off rolls, dives and cuts around the basket, where he's shooting 80.0 percent. His quickness, hands and bounce for a 6'11", 220-pounder ace the eye test.

He also covers ground defensively, thanks to his mobility, length and timing designed for rim protection.

Hayes isn't an option to feed when the defense is in front of him in the half court. He hasn't made a jump shot, and he's converted six post-ups in 16 games. But there will be lottery teams who still view Hayes as a target and fit for his potential to impact (at both ends) without needing plays run for him.


No. 9. De'Andre Hunter (Virginia, SF/PF, Sophomore)

De'Andre Hunter doesn't look significantly different from last season, but his strengths still hold up under the NBA scouting lens.

His physical tools remain a draw when projecting his defensive versatility. And though he's not shooting threes with volume, he's 15-of-34, looking plenty competent when given enough space and rhythm.

Hunter would have moved into tier two if he improved more off the dribble. He's 5-of-18 on pull-ups and 9-of-22 out of isolation.

Certain teams may also find it odd that's he's only totaled four blocks and nine steals all season.

No. 8. Romeo Langford (Indiana, SG, Freshman)
Trending: Toward lottery lock

Romeo Langford continues to strengthen his case as a lottery pick with 73 points over Indiana's last three games. He's now averaging 18.8 points on 51.3 percent shooting.

     

New developments

Langford is becoming more comfortable shooting from distance, a key development, given his identity as a scoring guard. After making three triples against Maryland on Friday, he's now hit a three in four straight games while also converting 32 of his last 37 free throws.

An average athlete in terms of explosiveness, Langford should be easing some concerns that may have popped up early about his touch and range.

     

Notable advanced stats

Pick-and-roll ball-handler: 95th percentile

Finishing around basket: 79.4 percent, 99th percentile

Transition: 16th percentile

Langford has been one of the nation's top pick-and-roll ball-handlers, posing as a dual threat with his ball-screen scoring (1.14 PPP) and passing (1.40 PPP).

His finishing in traffic has still stood out most. Without explosive bounce, Langford uses angles, strength and touch to convert through and around rim protection.

Outside the paint, he's demonstrated shot-creation off step-backs, as well as enough shot-making skill, particularly in the mid-range, where he's 10-of-13.

His poor transition numbers stem from that lack of burst. And scouts may question how much separation he'll create in the half court as well.

No. 7. Darius Garland (Vanderbilt, PG, Freshman)
Darius Garland's torn meniscus won't have a major impact on his draft stock or evaluation. Viewed as a potential lottery pick entering the season, he averaged 19.8 points through four full games, giving off NBA vibes with pull-up scoring and shooting.

     

New developments

Vandysports.com reported that Garland is enrolled at Vanderbilt for the Spring. That would mean he's perhaps not leaving to train for the draft.

       

Key stats

Pull-up jump shots: 13-of-25

Three-pointers: 11-of-23

Pick-and-roll passes: 11th percentile

Before going down, Garland had 15 turnovers to 13 assists, looking more comfortable scoring than playmaking. His shot-making stood out most on catch-and-shoot threes and dribble jumpers.

He'll enter the league with adequate point guard tools and a built-in jumper, leading to the perception his floor is high. How high he climbs in the NBA will come down to his development as a facilitator and defender.

No. 6. Kevin Porter Jr. (USC, SG, Freshman)
Trending: Toward further uncertainty

After playing just four minutes between Nov. 25 and Jan. 6, Kevin Porter Jr. returned from a quad injury on Thursday with scouts eager to finally get another look. Now it's unclear when he'll play again. USC suspended Porter indefinitely for conduct issues before its game against Oregon on Sunday.

     

New developments

It's too soon for any judgement given the lack of details, but more missed games, this time due to behavioral issues, won't help Porter improve his stock.

He did play 25 minutes against Oregon State and came out quickly with a step-back three-pointer and finish around the basket. However, he failed to record a field goal the rest of the game.

Even when his shot isn't falling (it didn't in the second half), Porter still pops in terms of talent and skill. Scouts will continue to monitor one of the draft's biggest swing prospects.

       

Notable advanced stats

Transition: 30 points, 18 possessions

Jump shots off dribble: 9-of-19

Catch and shoot: 3-of-11

A smooth, bouncy athlete, Porter's efficiency in transition (99th percentile) isn't surprising. It's his shot-creating skill that's generated the most attention.

Porter uses advanced crossover and pull-up moves to separate into jumpers. He's more comfortable hitting them off his own rhythm dribbles, as opposed to passes while standing still around the arc.

Scoring upside remains his No. 1 selling point, but the small sample size of success, plus new questions regarding his suspension, suggest the level of interest in Porter could be all over the place.


No. 5. Ja Morant (Murray State, PG, Sophomore
Trending: Toward top-five pick and No. 1 point guard lock

Ja Morant continues to pile up eye-opening stat lines, and he isn't going to slow down against Ohio Valley Conference opponents.

We slotted him into the top 10 a month ago, and between his obvious upside and production (23.1 points, 10.7 assists, 6.3 rebounds) that's expected to continue flowing, Morant looks locked into Tier 2 and capable of rising to No. 2 overall.

     

New developments

Morant set a Murray State record with 18 assists against UT Martin on Thursday. The Saturday before, he scored 34 against Eastern Kentucky. Heading into the weekend, he made at least two three-pointers in three consecutive games, potentially creating hope among scouts hesitant about his jump shot.

       

Notable advanced stats

Transition: 122 points, 93 possessions (85th percentile)

Assist percentage: 55.7 percent

Three-pointers: 20-of-65

Morant's explosiveness shines in transition, where he's totaled 91 points on 71 possessions as the ball-handler. His burst, low dribble and leaping are tailor-made for fast-breaking.

His passing remains ahead of his scoring skill. Morant shows strong vision and a willingness to look for teammates off screens and drives, while his ability to pass with both hands leads to quicker deliveries and open shots.

NBA teams must weigh his shaky jumper versus his elite athleticism and playmaking, plus their guess on the degree to which Morant will improve as a shooter. He's currently making 27.9 percent of his pull-ups and 30.8 percent of his threes.

His 5.3 turnovers per game are also worth factoring in, though a monster workload contributes to forced decisions.
« Last Edit: January 21, 2019, 03:43:28 AM by CelticsElite »

Re: Top 50 draft prospects summarized and ranked
« Reply #1 on: January 21, 2019, 02:50:20 AM »

Offline gouki88

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I think some of the rankings are pretty bad, like having Horton-Tucker ahead of Naz Reid, Luguentz Dort and Eric Paschall, but some of the guys around our spot intrigue me.
'23 Historical Draft: Orlando Magic.

PG: Terry Porter (90-91) / Steve Francis (00-01)
SG: Joe Dumars (92-93) / Jeff Hornacek (91-92) / Jerry Stackhouse (00-01)
SF: Brandon Roy (08-09) / Walter Davis (78-79)
PF: Terry Cummings (84-85) / Paul Millsap (15-16)
C: Chris Webber (00-01) / Ralph Sampson (83-84) / Andrew Bogut (09-10)

Re: Top 50 draft prospects summarized and ranked
« Reply #2 on: January 21, 2019, 02:56:27 AM »

Offline CelticsElite

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I think some of the rankings are pretty bad, like having Horton-Tucker ahead of Naz Reid, Luguentz Dort and Eric Paschall, but some of the guys around our spot intrigue me.
true
I agree the rankings are a bit off but I did like the summaries it helps understand what we might have available

Re: Top 50 draft prospects summarized and ranked
« Reply #3 on: January 21, 2019, 03:20:40 AM »

Offline gouki88

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I think some of the rankings are pretty bad, like having Horton-Tucker ahead of Naz Reid, Luguentz Dort and Eric Paschall, but some of the guys around our spot intrigue me.
true
I agree the rankings are a bit off but I did like the summaries it helps understand what we might have available
Agreed. I disagree with people that think this draft isn't any good - I think it's pretty much an average draft.

TP for the link
'23 Historical Draft: Orlando Magic.

PG: Terry Porter (90-91) / Steve Francis (00-01)
SG: Joe Dumars (92-93) / Jeff Hornacek (91-92) / Jerry Stackhouse (00-01)
SF: Brandon Roy (08-09) / Walter Davis (78-79)
PF: Terry Cummings (84-85) / Paul Millsap (15-16)
C: Chris Webber (00-01) / Ralph Sampson (83-84) / Andrew Bogut (09-10)

Re: Top 50 draft prospects summarized and ranked
« Reply #4 on: January 21, 2019, 03:26:33 AM »

Offline tazzmaniac

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TP.  Thanks for the info. 

Re: Top 50 draft prospects summarized and ranked
« Reply #5 on: January 21, 2019, 09:21:58 AM »

Online DefenseWinsChamps

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I think some of the rankings are pretty bad, like having Horton-Tucker ahead of Naz Reid, Luguentz Dort and Eric Paschall, but some of the guys around our spot intrigue me.

I don't know much about Reid, Dort, or Paschall, but I've seen Horton-Tucker play. Before I even knew his name or anything about the team, my first thought was, "That guy is an NBA wing."

He is one of the youngest players in college basketball (turned 18 in November). He has crazy long arms, and really good athleticism. He is one of those body types that is current carrying about 10-20 pounds of baby fat, but you could easily see him shedding that and his athleticism getting even better.

He was all over the court in the game I went to. He dominated both sides of the ball. He constantly got tips and rebounds. On offense, he could shoot and drive at will. This was a game where Iowa State was missing several starters for injuries are disciplinary reasons, but Horton Tucker won them the game.

I came home from that game and did some research to find that several sites already had him as a first round pick.

I would not be surprised if he goes in the last half of the first round, but ends up being one of the best wings from this draft. He probably doesn't have star upside, but I could easily see him being a long-time starter and good NBA player.

Re: Top 50 draft prospects summarized and ranked
« Reply #6 on: January 21, 2019, 10:09:48 AM »

Offline gouki88

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I think some of the rankings are pretty bad, like having Horton-Tucker ahead of Naz Reid, Luguentz Dort and Eric Paschall, but some of the guys around our spot intrigue me.

I don't know much about Reid, Dort, or Paschall, but I've seen Horton-Tucker play. Before I even knew his name or anything about the team, my first thought was, "That guy is an NBA wing."

He is one of the youngest players in college basketball (turned 18 in November). He has crazy long arms, and really good athleticism. He is one of those body types that is current carrying about 10-20 pounds of baby fat, but you could easily see him shedding that and his athleticism getting even better.

He was all over the court in the game I went to. He dominated both sides of the ball. He constantly got tips and rebounds. On offense, he could shoot and drive at will. This was a game where Iowa State was missing several starters for injuries are disciplinary reasons, but Horton Tucker won them the game.

I came home from that game and did some research to find that several sites already had him as a first round pick.

I would not be surprised if he goes in the last half of the first round, but ends up being one of the best wings from this draft. He probably doesn't have star upside, but I could easily see him being a long-time starter and good NBA player.
Very interesting info! I've only caught I think 2 halves of his, but admittedly they were 2 games where he was ice cold, so I don't think I'm being very fair on him. His energy and defence was impressive though.

I'm pretty high on Reid and Dort to be honest. Reid has one of the most interesting offensive games I've seen in a while. He basically plays like a 6'10 240lb guard. I don't like how LSU plays him, giving him around 23MPG, but he can score from anywhere and has a silky handle.

Either way it'll be interesting seeing how it all plays out
'23 Historical Draft: Orlando Magic.

PG: Terry Porter (90-91) / Steve Francis (00-01)
SG: Joe Dumars (92-93) / Jeff Hornacek (91-92) / Jerry Stackhouse (00-01)
SF: Brandon Roy (08-09) / Walter Davis (78-79)
PF: Terry Cummings (84-85) / Paul Millsap (15-16)
C: Chris Webber (00-01) / Ralph Sampson (83-84) / Andrew Bogut (09-10)

Re: Top 50 draft prospects summarized and ranked
« Reply #7 on: January 21, 2019, 11:43:56 AM »

Offline Wretch

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I posted this in another thread but I will repeat it here.

I've saw hunter play live recently, vs. Marshall and he came across as a passive player.  He didn't even try to score in the first in the 1st half until UVA called a time out and Bennett read him the riot act in the huddle.  He then took over the game offensively for the next few plays and scored at will.  He's a good defender but not anything close to Anderson or Brogdon.

He's definitely a first round talent but not top 10 and probably not lottery.
« Last Edit: January 21, 2019, 12:33:26 PM by Wretch »

Re: Top 50 draft prospects summarized and ranked
« Reply #8 on: January 21, 2019, 09:48:24 PM »

Offline CelticsElite

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White: 27/7/6/4
Little: 23/6/3/1
NAW: 19/3/3/3

all 3 showed out tonight