Why does everyone keep saying we won't be a contender next year?

[slamtheking]

it all depends on Danny's moves in the offseason. 

realistically, we've been contenders since 2008 provided we were healthy.  The problem is we haven't been healthy since 2008.  same thing will hold true for next year.

[cman88]

Wellj jackie said that kg will be back.

Realistically we can contend and considering how weak the east is with the right moves we could be the 2nd best team in the east.

The key will be building a team like the spurs with lots of young depth

[apc]

We can be a contender but not by keeping most of our current bench.
Our bench has a lot of hart but not much talent.
We must address rebounding and scoring of the bench, and I am not talking about rookies.
It will be great if we can get Kaman, resign Jeff Green, and Doc must trust Moore and JJJ, we don’t know yet what JJJ can give us, but Moore can be our scorer of the bench.
On top of that, Doc must limit the big 3 playing time to around 25 and get the most out of the bench and young players(see Spurs).

[mctyson]

However, what if Brandon Bass, Jeff Green, KG, etc., don't want one year deals?  Will Danny commit long-term to mediocre or aging players?  Or will he instead attempt to preserve his cap flexibility, even if it hurts in the short term?

I can see KG getting a 2-year deal at 12M per.  That's the max I'd go to.  For 1 year I'd offer 15M.

Bass has the 4M option, if he takes it great, if he declines it let him test free agency and resign him if he gets no more than 7M (I do 3 years at 6M for Bass.)

Jeff Green is not getting a large contract from anyone coming off of heart surgery.  If he does, let him walk.  I'd offer him 3 years at 5M, or maybe 2 with a player option.

Ray is gone, so that is 10M off the books.  KG will only be resigned by Danny for much less than 20M, let's say it is 15M so that's another 5M off the books.  Green goes from 9M to 5M so that totals 19M cut.  Wilcox is another 3M to 22M.  JOneal adds 6M to 28M.

By my rough calculations we could bring back all the critical players from this year's team, plus add the 2 1st round picks and a 2nd rounder, and still have ~20M in cap space to play with.  Does that sound right?

I'll take that team in a heartbeat.

[j804]

the problem with expecting KG and Pierce to come back next season is that they've both seen that Danny is willing and eager to trade them if he sees the team is underperforming come all-star break.  Pierce has said he is considering retirement, why would he want to come back if he knows Danny already tried to trade him to the joke of a franchise Nets for Mehmet Okur and a sack of oranges?  Why would KG want to sign for another year knowing he's risking getting shipped away at the all-star break?

A no trade clause perhaps?

[celtics2]

Next Season's team will have lots of upside with Rondo, Pierce and KG if we can keep him and if he wants to even play. Whose idea it was to limit him this Season was genius. He has been lively all Season and now into the playoffs. I would imagine a better bench because aside from Bradley it can't get any worse.

[LarBrd33]

I think most people who say we won't be contenders next year do not consider us serious contenders this year, or did not think we were contenders last year.

They see Lebron and Wade, Rose and the Bulls, and see two teams that are "better" than the Celtics are in their current form, even if we had a 70% win pct. after the all star break.

It really comes down to one's interpretation of the word "contender."  In the NBA, I believe you are a contender if you win 50+ games in the regular season.  That tells me you have the ability to beat the other teams with 50+ wins, making you a threat in the playoffs.  Does that guarantee a trip to the Finals?  Heck no.  But it makes you a "contender" for that position.

Some other people might think you are only a contender if you are high 50's or 60+ wins, meaning you are in the top 3 of all NBA teams, and are more than likely going to at least be in the conference finals.  Others might require something different, like a previous trip to the Finals or even a Championship.  Some people want that near guarantee that the team will be great.  Different strokes for different folks.

If KG comes back, there is no doubt in my mind that this team will be just as good as it was this year.  A full year of Rondo, Bradley, Pierce, and KG, with the right pieces (Jeff Green healthy), can put us back into the ECF again.

And let's not forget that we have the best PG in the league....  

Mctyson nails it here.

Depends on your definition of contender.  I'm thrilled we got to the final 4, but it's looking like we're going to get swept by the Heat.  A healthy Bulls team is better than the Heat.  I'm not even sure we would have beaten a full-strength Hawks team (they were incredibly tough once they added a rusty Al Horford who had missed the last 4 months).  I'm not sure we could have dealt with Dwight Howard's size in a matchup.  Philly was a gift and they took us to 7 games.   All this without even mentioning that the Spurs, Thunder and Lakers all probably would have owned us in the finals.   For the regular season, we rarely beat any of the real "contenders".   We're a very good team and we overachieved in part due to injuries... but there's a real reason why folks don't consider us a serious threat this year or next.  

Adding Jeff Green and some late 1st round rookies will help a bit.  Bradley might continue to impress.  But if we're standing pat I don't see much of a difference.  We'll certainly be good enough to contend with the Hawks and Philly... but contending for a title is another thing entirely.

[snively]

However, what if Brandon Bass, Jeff Green, KG, etc., don't want one year deals?  Will Danny commit long-term to mediocre or aging players?  Or will he instead attempt to preserve his cap flexibility, even if it hurts in the short term?

I can see KG getting a 2-year deal at 12M per.  That's the max I'd go to.  For 1 year I'd offer 15M.

Bass has the 4M option, if he takes it great, if he declines it let him test free agency and resign him if he gets no more than 7M (I do 3 years at 6M for Bass.)

Jeff Green is not getting a large contract from anyone coming off of heart surgery.  If he does, let him walk.  I'd offer him 3 years at 5M, or maybe 2 with a player option.

Ray is gone, so that is 10M off the books.  KG will only be resigned by Danny for much less than 20M, let's say it is 15M so that's another 5M off the books.  Green goes from 9M to 5M so that totals 19M cut.  Wilcox is another 3M to 22M.  JOneal adds 6M to 28M.

By my rough calculations we could bring back all the critical players from this year's team, plus add the 2 1st round picks and a 2nd rounder, and still have ~20M in cap space to play with.  Does that sound right?

No.  We were well over the cap this year (mainly through the use of bird rights and exceptions like the MLE), so you can't count year-to-year cost savings as cap room. 

The cap is something like $60 mil.  Our salaries totaled $80 mil.