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Seeding Games: Will the Grizzlies make the playoffs?

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Author Topic: Memphis Grizzlies 2019-2020 Watch Thread (#14)  (Read 92654 times)

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Re: Memphis Grizzlies 2019-2020 Watch Thread
« Reply #45 on: October 26, 2019, 01:34:37 PM »

Offline keevsnick

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I think we should be hoping for #7 or #8 from the Grizzlies. I see them pulling off a 2019 Kings next season if they manage to get another top pick to add to their impressive young core.

I’d rather take the chance for a higher pick next year.   At 7 or 8 the chances of getting an all star type player are much slimmer.  If they pull off a Kings like upgrade so be it, but adding potentially a top 3 or 4 player is worth the risk.

100% agree.  Add in the fact that getting the Memphis pick this year would require some amount of roster moves to avoid the luxury tax next season, as well as the projected strengths of the respective drafts, and we should be hoping to wait one more year.
I thought the upcoming draft would be deep while the 2021 draft would be thin, if that's not the case then yeah I'm all in for 2021 then.

My understanding is this year will be deeper, particularly with international talent, strengthening the middle and end of the first round, but that 2021 has better top-end talent.  So it’s a good year to have two picks in the 20s, but if you’re looking at a top-10 pick, 2021 is your year (or 2022 if you still believe the draft age will be lowered by then).

This matches pretty well with my understanding. In addition the new lottery rules make it so that even if the Grizz go from bottom six this year to like tenth next year there's still a decent chance they move up in the lottery. Its pretty clear you'd rather the pick role over.

Re: Memphis Grizzlies 2019-2020 Watch Thread (1-3, as of 11/1)
« Reply #46 on: November 02, 2019, 10:34:07 AM »

Offline Jiri Welsch

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I'm making a few knee-jerk reactions (which I know many vets on this board hate seeing) to get our minds rolling:

1. The Grizzlies will not be making the playoffs.

By default, this means the Grizzlies' pick has a chance to roll over to the 2021 Draft. I think this is good in the long run because the "unknown" tends to carry more value as a trade chip.

2. There are many teams that could finish below the Grizzlies.

Based on how the season has started, it seems like all of the following could hypothetically end up with worse records: (1) Wizards, (2) Knicks, (3) Kings, (4), Pelicans, (5) Warriors, (6) Thunder, (7) Pistons, (8 ) Hornets, (9) Cavs

The biggest surprise is obviously Golden State--I could see them just scrapping this season if they go something like 6-24 to start the year. I also am a bit surprised by Sacramento's start to the season, but things could change for them. I don't see ALL of these teams finishing below the Grizzlies. However, I can see situations in which all of these teams are competing with the Grizzlies toward the end of the season for draft position.

3. I am cautiously optimistic, but with the new lottery odds anything is possible.

Go Celtics!

Re: Memphis Grizzlies 2019-2020 Watch Thread
« Reply #47 on: November 02, 2019, 10:47:07 AM »

Offline GreenShooter

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I think we should be hoping for #7 or #8 from the Grizzlies. I see them pulling off a 2019 Kings next season if they manage to get another top pick to add to their impressive young core.
Unless they get a top 3 pick again I don't think they'll improve much. This draft is not good. The 2021 draft is LOADED. It shouldn't even be much of a debate of whether this pick is more valuable if it rolls over.

Re: Memphis Grizzlies 2019-2020 Watch Thread
« Reply #48 on: November 02, 2019, 10:52:07 AM »

Offline Somebody

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I think we should be hoping for #7 or #8 from the Grizzlies. I see them pulling off a 2019 Kings next season if they manage to get another top pick to add to their impressive young core.
Unless they get a top 3 pick again I don't think they'll improve much. This draft is not good. The 2021 draft is LOADED. It shouldn't even be much of a debate of whether this pick is more valuable if it rolls over.
I haven't been following future draft classes all that much so I'll take your word for it! Hope that the Celtics draft another gem in the 2021 draft.
Jaylen Brown for All-NBA

Re: Memphis Grizzlies 2019-2020 Watch Thread (1-3, as of 11/1)
« Reply #49 on: November 02, 2019, 10:57:47 AM »

Offline JBcat

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I'm making a few knee-jerk reactions (which I know many vets on this board hate seeing) to get our minds rolling:

1. The Grizzlies will not be making the playoffs.

By default, this means the Grizzlies' pick has a chance to roll over to the 2021 Draft. I think this is good in the long run because the "unknown" tends to carry more value as a trade chip.

2. There are many teams that could finish below the Grizzlies.

Based on how the season has started, it seems like all of the following could hypothetically end up with worse records: (1) Wizards, (2) Knicks, (3) Kings, (4), Pelicans, (5) Warriors, (6) Thunder, (7) Pistons, (8 ) Hornets, (9) Cavs

The biggest surprise is obviously Golden State--I could see them just scrapping this season if they go something like 6-24 to start the year. I also am a bit surprised by Sacramento's start to the season, but things could change for them. I don't see ALL of these teams finishing below the Grizzlies. However, I can see situations in which all of these teams are competing with the Grizzlies toward the end of the season for draft position.

3. I am cautiously optimistic, but with the new lottery odds anything is possible.

Go Celtics!

Although I think they will be better maybe we can add the Hawks and Bulls to the list since they are so young.  It’s great having these threads every year for other team’s picks we own. Lol

Re: Memphis Grizzlies 2019-2020 Watch Thread (1-3, as of 11/1)
« Reply #50 on: November 02, 2019, 11:02:21 AM »

Offline Jiri Welsch

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Although I think they will be better maybe we can add the Hawks and Bulls to the list since they are so young.  It’s great having these threads every year for other team’s picks we own. Lol

True. We need Memphis to rattle off a losing streak to start the year!

Re: Memphis Grizzlies 2019-2020 Watch Thread
« Reply #51 on: November 02, 2019, 11:04:02 AM »

Offline Sophomore

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I think we should be hoping for #7 or #8 from the Grizzlies. I see them pulling off a 2019 Kings next season if they manage to get another top pick to add to their impressive young core.

I’d rather take the chance for a higher pick next year.   At 7 or 8 the chances of getting an all star type player are much slimmer.  If they pull off a Kings like upgrade so be it, but adding potentially a top 3 or 4 player is worth the risk.

100% agree.  Add in the fact that getting the Memphis pick this year would require some amount of roster moves to avoid the luxury tax next season, as well as the projected strengths of the respective drafts, and we should be hoping to wait one more year.
I thought the upcoming draft would be deep while the 2021 draft would be thin, if that's not the case then yeah I'm all in for 2021 then.

My understanding is this year will be deeper, particularly with international talent, strengthening the middle and end of the first round, but that 2021 has better top-end talent.  So it’s a good year to have two picks in the 20s, but if you’re looking at a top-10 pick, 2021 is your year (or 2022 if you still believe the draft age will be lowered by then).

This matches pretty well with my understanding. In addition the new lottery rules make it so that even if the Grizz go from bottom six this year to like tenth next year there's still a decent chance they move up in the lottery. Its pretty clear you'd rather the pick role over.

I’d be perfectly happy if the pick comes to the Cs at 7 next year. I think people overestimate the odds of a pick landing in the top three the year after. If the pick doesn’t convey, I think the Grizz are likely to be near the end of the lottery the year after - maybe sniff the playoffs.

Someone said if the Grizz land tenth in 2020-21 we’d have a decent chance at a top pick. We would have a 3% chance of number 1, and a 13% chance of 1-4. It is more likely that we would *lose* ground in the lottery and end up with the 11th or 12th pick - 19%, and overall there is an 87% chance we end tenth or worse.

Some people like to gamble for upside because it’s so important to get a star player, and they say it justifies a long downside risk. I see the logic. But the truly transformational players who you can identify before the draft are usually at 1 or maybe 2. So, a 3% chance at 1 and about another 3% chance of 2. Those are very long odds.  And there’s no knowing where Memphis lands. Check yourself: were you one of the people who were *sure* it would be a top-5 pick? We all know how that ended. Adding a very good player to this core next year, on a four-year rookie deal, sounds just fine to me. Last year’s 7th pick was Wendell Carter jr.; someone like that would fit perfectly. 

As for people making predictions about the next two draft classes - so many people poor-mouthed this year’s draft, even called it historically bad. Does anybody still think that?

Re: Memphis Grizzlies 2019-2020 Watch Thread (1-3, as of 11/1)
« Reply #52 on: November 02, 2019, 04:13:59 PM »

Offline rondofan1255

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Hoping the C's get the pick this year.

Maybe it'll be something in this range before the lottery drawing -> Grizzlies T-7th worst (2019), Nets 8th (2018), Lakers 10th (2018), Kings T-12th (2018)


Re: Memphis Grizzlies 2019-2020 Watch Thread
« Reply #53 on: November 02, 2019, 11:39:20 PM »

Offline keevsnick

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I think we should be hoping for #7 or #8 from the Grizzlies. I see them pulling off a 2019 Kings next season if they manage to get another top pick to add to their impressive young core.

I’d rather take the chance for a higher pick next year.   At 7 or 8 the chances of getting an all star type player are much slimmer.  If they pull off a Kings like upgrade so be it, but adding potentially a top 3 or 4 player is worth the risk.

100% agree.  Add in the fact that getting the Memphis pick this year would require some amount of roster moves to avoid the luxury tax next season, as well as the projected strengths of the respective drafts, and we should be hoping to wait one more year.
I thought the upcoming draft would be deep while the 2021 draft would be thin, if that's not the case then yeah I'm all in for 2021 then.

My understanding is this year will be deeper, particularly with international talent, strengthening the middle and end of the first round, but that 2021 has better top-end talent.  So it’s a good year to have two picks in the 20s, but if you’re looking at a top-10 pick, 2021 is your year (or 2022 if you still believe the draft age will be lowered by then).

This matches pretty well with my understanding. In addition the new lottery rules make it so that even if the Grizz go from bottom six this year to like tenth next year there's still a decent chance they move up in the lottery. Its pretty clear you'd rather the pick role over.

I’d be perfectly happy if the pick comes to the Cs at 7 next year. I think people overestimate the odds of a pick landing in the top three the year after. If the pick doesn’t convey, I think the Grizz are likely to be near the end of the lottery the year after - maybe sniff the playoffs.

Someone said if the Grizz land tenth in 2020-21 we’d have a decent chance at a top pick. We would have a 3% chance of number 1, and a 13% chance of 1-4. It is more likely that we would *lose* ground in the lottery and end up with the 11th or 12th pick - 19%, and overall there is an 87% chance we end tenth or worse.

Some people like to gamble for upside because it’s so important to get a star player, and they say it justifies a long downside risk. I see the logic. But the truly transformational players who you can identify before the draft are usually at 1 or maybe 2. So, a 3% chance at 1 and about another 3% chance of 2. Those are very long odds.  And there’s no knowing where Memphis lands. Check yourself: were you one of the people who were *sure* it would be a top-5 pick? We all know how that ended. Adding a very good player to this core next year, on a four-year rookie deal, sounds just fine to me. Last year’s 7th pick was Wendell Carter jr.; someone like that would fit perfectly. 

As for people making predictions about the next two draft classes - so many people poor-mouthed this year’s draft, even called it historically bad. Does anybody still think that?

That is a chance you should ALWAYS take. Again, most transcendent players are top 3 picks so if there is even a small chance t get such a pick you roll the dice. The difference in player quality between 10 and 12 is much smaller than 7 and say 2.

Re: Memphis Grizzlies 2019-2020 Watch Thread (1-3, as of 11/1)
« Reply #54 on: November 02, 2019, 11:42:45 PM »

Offline Fierce1

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Now that Sabonis is locked up long term, I'd offer the Memphis pick to Indy for Myles Turner.

Re: Memphis Grizzlies 2019-2020 Watch Thread (1-3, as of 11/1)
« Reply #55 on: November 02, 2019, 11:43:30 PM »

Offline gouki88

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Now that Sabonis is locked up long term, I'd offer the Memphis pick to Indy for Myles Turner.
And what salary??
'23 Historical Draft: Orlando Magic.

PG: Terry Porter (90-91) / Steve Francis (00-01)
SG: Joe Dumars (92-93) / Jeff Hornacek (91-92) / Jerry Stackhouse (00-01)
SF: Brandon Roy (08-09) / Walter Davis (78-79)
PF: Terry Cummings (84-85) / Paul Millsap (15-16)
C: Chris Webber (00-01) / Ralph Sampson (83-84) / Andrew Bogut (09-10)

Re: Memphis Grizzlies 2019-2020 Watch Thread
« Reply #56 on: November 02, 2019, 11:55:45 PM »

Offline Sophomore

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I think we should be hoping for #7 or #8 from the Grizzlies. I see them pulling off a 2019 Kings next season if they manage to get another top pick to add to their impressive young core.

I’d rather take the chance for a higher pick next year.   At 7 or 8 the chances of getting an all star type player are much slimmer.  If they pull off a Kings like upgrade so be it, but adding potentially a top 3 or 4 player is worth the risk.

100% agree.  Add in the fact that getting the Memphis pick this year would require some amount of roster moves to avoid the luxury tax next season, as well as the projected strengths of the respective drafts, and we should be hoping to wait one more year.
I thought the upcoming draft would be deep while the 2021 draft would be thin, if that's not the case then yeah I'm all in for 2021 then.

My understanding is this year will be deeper, particularly with international talent, strengthening the middle and end of the first round, but that 2021 has better top-end talent.  So it’s a good year to have two picks in the 20s, but if you’re looking at a top-10 pick, 2021 is your year (or 2022 if you still believe the draft age will be lowered by then).

This matches pretty well with my understanding. In addition the new lottery rules make it so that even if the Grizz go from bottom six this year to like tenth next year there's still a decent chance they move up in the lottery. Its pretty clear you'd rather the pick role over.

I’d be perfectly happy if the pick comes to the Cs at 7 next year. I think people overestimate the odds of a pick landing in the top three the year after. If the pick doesn’t convey, I think the Grizz are likely to be near the end of the lottery the year after - maybe sniff the playoffs.

Someone said if the Grizz land tenth in 2020-21 we’d have a decent chance at a top pick. We would have a 3% chance of number 1, and a 13% chance of 1-4. It is more likely that we would *lose* ground in the lottery and end up with the 11th or 12th pick - 19%, and overall there is an 87% chance we end tenth or worse.

Some people like to gamble for upside because it’s so important to get a star player, and they say it justifies a long downside risk. I see the logic. But the truly transformational players who you can identify before the draft are usually at 1 or maybe 2. So, a 3% chance at 1 and about another 3% chance of 2. Those are very long odds.  And there’s no knowing where Memphis lands. Check yourself: were you one of the people who were *sure* it would be a top-5 pick? We all know how that ended. Adding a very good player to this core next year, on a four-year rookie deal, sounds just fine to me. Last year’s 7th pick was Wendell Carter jr.; someone like that would fit perfectly. 

As for people making predictions about the next two draft classes - so many people poor-mouthed this year’s draft, even called it historically bad. Does anybody still think that?

That is a chance you should ALWAYS take. Again, most transcendent players are top 3 picks so if there is even a small chance t get such a pick you roll the dice. The difference in player quality between 10 and 12 is much smaller than 7 and say 2.

Guess what I’m saying is I won’t be disappointed if it conveys at 7 this year, because if we wait for the following year it’s very unlikely we’ll end up with a top-2 or 3 pick. If the Grizz finish 10th, it’s a 91% chance we won’t. And if they manage the 8th playoff spot it’s 100%.

Re: Memphis Grizzlies 2019-2020 Watch Thread (1-3, as of 11/1)
« Reply #57 on: November 03, 2019, 12:04:25 AM »

Offline Fierce1

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Now that Sabonis is locked up long term, I'd offer the Memphis pick to Indy for Myles Turner.
And what salary??

Turner is 18m per year.

Celts can afford that.

Theis - 5m
Kanter - 4.7m
Romeo - 3.45m
Poirier - 2.5m
Semi - 1.6m
Wanamaker - 1.4m

Those 6 players can be used as trade bait.
4 among the 6 and the salaries will match.

Celts can afford an 18m player.

It's the likes of Love, Blake Griffin, and Steven Adams that's out of the price range of the Celts.

Re: Memphis Grizzlies 2019-2020 Watch Thread
« Reply #58 on: November 03, 2019, 12:21:18 AM »

Offline keevsnick

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I think we should be hoping for #7 or #8 from the Grizzlies. I see them pulling off a 2019 Kings next season if they manage to get another top pick to add to their impressive young core.

I’d rather take the chance for a higher pick next year.   At 7 or 8 the chances of getting an all star type player are much slimmer.  If they pull off a Kings like upgrade so be it, but adding potentially a top 3 or 4 player is worth the risk.

100% agree.  Add in the fact that getting the Memphis pick this year would require some amount of roster moves to avoid the luxury tax next season, as well as the projected strengths of the respective drafts, and we should be hoping to wait one more year.
I thought the upcoming draft would be deep while the 2021 draft would be thin, if that's not the case then yeah I'm all in for 2021 then.

My understanding is this year will be deeper, particularly with international talent, strengthening the middle and end of the first round, but that 2021 has better top-end talent.  So it’s a good year to have two picks in the 20s, but if you’re looking at a top-10 pick, 2021 is your year (or 2022 if you still believe the draft age will be lowered by then).

This matches pretty well with my understanding. In addition the new lottery rules make it so that even if the Grizz go from bottom six this year to like tenth next year there's still a decent chance they move up in the lottery. Its pretty clear you'd rather the pick role over.

I’d be perfectly happy if the pick comes to the Cs at 7 next year. I think people overestimate the odds of a pick landing in the top three the year after. If the pick doesn’t convey, I think the Grizz are likely to be near the end of the lottery the year after - maybe sniff the playoffs.

Someone said if the Grizz land tenth in 2020-21 we’d have a decent chance at a top pick. We would have a 3% chance of number 1, and a 13% chance of 1-4. It is more likely that we would *lose* ground in the lottery and end up with the 11th or 12th pick - 19%, and overall there is an 87% chance we end tenth or worse.

Some people like to gamble for upside because it’s so important to get a star player, and they say it justifies a long downside risk. I see the logic. But the truly transformational players who you can identify before the draft are usually at 1 or maybe 2. So, a 3% chance at 1 and about another 3% chance of 2. Those are very long odds.  And there’s no knowing where Memphis lands. Check yourself: were you one of the people who were *sure* it would be a top-5 pick? We all know how that ended. Adding a very good player to this core next year, on a four-year rookie deal, sounds just fine to me. Last year’s 7th pick was Wendell Carter jr.; someone like that would fit perfectly. 

As for people making predictions about the next two draft classes - so many people poor-mouthed this year’s draft, even called it historically bad. Does anybody still think that?

That is a chance you should ALWAYS take. Again, most transcendent players are top 3 picks so if there is even a small chance t get such a pick you roll the dice. The difference in player quality between 10 and 12 is much smaller than 7 and say 2.

Guess what I’m saying is I won’t be disappointed if it conveys at 7 this year, because if we wait for the following year it’s very unlikely we’ll end up with a top-2 or 3 pick. If the Grizz finish 10th, it’s a 91% chance we won’t. And if they manage the 8th playoff spot it’s 100%.

I mean there are no BAD options, but a chance at a top 3 pick is a better option than the 7th in a weak draft.

Re: Memphis Grizzlies 2019-2020 Watch Thread (1-3, as of 11/1)
« Reply #59 on: November 03, 2019, 05:58:02 AM »

Offline Celtics4ever

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Quote
Celts can afford that.

Theis - 5m
Kanter - 4.7m
Romeo - 3.45m
Poirier - 2.5m
Semi - 1.6m
Wanamaker - 1.4m

Those 6 players can be used as trade bait.
4 among the 6 and the salaries will match.

Celts can afford an 18m player.

Except as is usual, you forget the fact that we are doing well.   We lost to Philly of course, but beat Philly and the Bucks.    CBS looks happy with the team and so does Ainge.    I too, would like to have a  quality big but it is not going to happen as we play small ball and believe in it.  Everyone of your trades leaves a massively weakened bench that is one injury away from disaster.     This is not NBA live or 2K.   Ainge is not going to make a trade just to make a trade.