Red Sox-Angels ALDS Discussion

[Big_Matt34]

Tito just said that the rotation will be Lester/Beckett/Buchholz in that order. I think Jed will probably be the backup infielder even with his wrist since the other option is Woodward. Joey Gathright  likely makes the roster as the 5th OF/late game pich runner, and Brian Anderson may also make it if Rocco isn't healthy. The series will likely start Thursday with the Yankees picking the one that starts on Wed. We are pretty sure of what we will get from Lester, but i'm a bit nervous about both Beckett and Buchholz. I think they both will pitch well but i'm definately not as comfortable about it as i was.

So whats everyons thoughts, predictions?

[Quinn]

With Buch's last two starts I think Daisuke should get the nod of third starter...

[Big_Matt34]

With Buch's last two starts I think Daisuke should get the nod of third starter...

While he has struggled the last two starts, i still think he is a better option than Dice-K. Dice-K even when he is doing well lets a ton of guys on base, something they can't afford to do against the Angels because they will steal a ton if bases if they get on alot. Clay is more likely to get lit up but he is also more likely to go out and dominate them. I rather take the chance of Clay going out there and looking great rather than letting Dice labor through 5 innings, give up 3 runs, and wear out the bullpen.

It seems Francona and Theo agree, because Tito said they would consider bringing Lester back on 3 days rest rather than using Dice-K in game 4. Does not seem like they have much confidence in him at all.

[Brickowski]

All I know is, the Angels will steal alot of bases.  Does anyone know the record for most team stolen bases in a postseason series? 

[jambr380]

I know our pitching has been a bit up and down, but I am REALLY confident about this series. It is like playing the same team as last year, but without Teixiera. I mean, I know they have additions that have produced for them this year and all, but their big name talent is either gone or going downhill (Vlad, Lackey). Add that with the fact that they are totally scared of us in the playoffs and I just am not that that scared.

I just hope Beckett can do his thing in the playoffs, as he always does. He is a big game picture. Even with Lester pitching like he is, I would rather go with Beckett as the Ace.

[Donoghus]

I'm legitimately concerned about this series.  The Sox have had the Angels' number in the playoffs but I think its going to be a real battle this year.  When the pitching is firing on all cylinders, the Sox are next to impossible to beat.  However, it hasn't been and the Angels have a pretty potent lineup this year. If the Sox starting pitching isn't in top form, I can see the Angels stealing a bunch of runs and making things difficult for the Sox. 

I guess, my concern, is whether we'll see the true Lester/Beckett/Bucholtz or if we're going to see some of those erratic outings that we've seen the past month or so.

If the Sox split in Anaheim, my feelings will be subdued a bit since Fenway is such a home field advantage come playoff time.  I'm just concerned that this Sox team has too many holes this year and that the Angels will finally break through against them. 

[moiso]

With Buch's last two starts I think Daisuke should get the nod of third starter...

i was thinking the same thing.

[Rondo2287]

I like the fact that you have Beckett Going in game two.  We all know he is one of the best playoff pitchers out there right now.  And he wont be matched up against the Angels Ace.  If he gives up two or three, we should be all set because I think the sox can score off of whoever they throw out there besides Lackey. 

Also the stats say that the Angels arent good against hard throwers and I think our pitching staff has one of the highest average fastballs in the whole league so that bodes well for us. 

[yall hate]

over under on the number of steals the Angels have in this matchup?  I think I will probably take the over on 11....

[Chris]

over under on the number of steals the Angels have in this matchup?  I think I will probably take the over on 11....

Yup, I would take the over on that as well.  But what is the over-under on outs they run into by being over-aggressive?  I would take the over on whatever that is as well. 

[Rondo2287]

over under on the number of steals the Angels have in this matchup?  I think I will probably take the over on 11....

Ya, probably.  I would expect one reason they want Lester to start game one is to have the lefty on the mound to try to curb some of the running from the get go in the series.  I know Lester hasnt been great at holding guys on this year, but its generally harder to steal second off lefties so maybe that went into it.  

[Big_Matt34]

The last time they played a few weeks ago, the Angels stole 4 bases in the 3 game series and that was with Dice-K and Byrd pitching 2 of the games. Keep them off the bases and they won't be able to steal, it's as simple as that. Now they will almost certainly steal more than 4 in the series, but i don't see it being some really high number.

Lester, Beckett, and even Buchholz have been good at keeping runners on all season, partly because they don't let many runners on, but also because they are good at holding the ball and throwing off the timing of the runners. The only time i can see the Angels really going crazy on the bases is when the bullpen is in, but i'm hoping we don't see much of the pen with Lester/Beckett/Buchholz going, and even if we do, as long as the bullpen does it's job then it shouldnt be a huge problem.

[Brickowski]

With the possible exception of Lester, the Red Sox pitchers do a terrible job of holding runners on, and their catchers can't throw.  This will be a huge advantage for the Angels, especially in close games. 

[Big_Matt34]

With the possible exception of Lester, the Red Sox pitchers do a terrible job of holding runners on, and their catchers can't throw.  This will be a huge advantage for the Angels, especially in close games. 

Beckett has allowed 4 less steals than Lester in the same amount of starts. Beckett has allowed 15 steals in 212 IP, Lester has 19 in 203 IP, Buchholz has allowed 6 in 92 IP. All three have been good at holding runners on, look at the Angels staff as comparison. Lackey has allowed 13 steals in 176 IP, Weaver has allowed 19 in 211 IP, Santana allowed 15 in 139 IP, Saunders allowed 18 in 186 IP, Kazmir has been outstanding though, 4 SB's allowed in 147 IP. 

The big difference is Napoli throws out 22% of the runners while Tek and Victor have thrown out 13%.

[Redz]

I'm legitimately concerned about this series.  The Sox have had the Angels' number in the playoffs but I think its going to be a real battle this year.  When the pitching is firing on all cylinders, the Sox are next to impossible to beat.  However, it hasn't been and the Angels have a pretty potent lineup this year. If the Sox starting pitching isn't in top form, I can see the Angels stealing a bunch of runs and making things difficult for the Sox. 

I guess, my concern, is whether we'll see the true Lester/Beckett/Bucholtz or if we're going to see some of those erratic outings that we've seen the past month or so.

If the Sox split in Anaheim, my feelings will be subdued a bit since Fenway is such a home field advantage come playoff time.  I'm just concerned that this Sox team has too many holes this year and that the Angels will finally break through against them. 

It was a battle last year.  The Angels did not give an inch at Fenway down 2-0 in the series.  They took game 3, and Game 4 was really, really hairy at the end.  Were it not for a boneheaded stop at 3rd late in the game (I forget who was running but he could have score standing up), that one would have gone to extras.

I have no doubt the Sox can beat the Angels, but it would not shock me if they lost.  The Angels are a good team.

I think the argument that I buy into the least is "Well, they don't KRod to close any more."

Yes Fuentes has been shaky.  And yes, KRod broke the record for saves on a season, but he was been extremely hittable for the Sox in the postseason clutch.