Austin Ainge: Dragan one of the best players in the last 4 years in his class

[BitterJim]

to be honest Bender wouldn't be so bad.

We have a logjam at the guards and every guard seems to be deserving to play. The same could not be said about our forwards. Sully/KO at times are very inconsistent and Bender at 7 ft is extremely athletic for a guy his age, and has a very good work ethic. He may even get to start if not start very soon next season. Sully might be gone soon too, and I don't know if we will pick up Amir's 2nd year option (i think we might)

Yea I'm starting to warm up to this. I would love to hear ore positive things about the kid CNN has a nice write up about him in their site today.

Me too. I would trust Danny and his team's assessment over any other "scouts" on the internet. If they think Bender did great in workouts and interviews, I will trust Ainge's decision.

That said, I still prefer Hield at the #3 spot.

Workouts and interviews are not everything.  Smart messed up his 1st session

Danny also will look at what he has done for the year. And with bender there is little to go by other than some "flash"

What a risky pick at number 3 .   This is a pretty weak draft from 3-7

Stronger from 8-31

If the Celtics front office is doing a good job, I think Ainge will have been paying attention to what Bender has done the past few years not just this year.

It is a mistake to think that Ainge is dealing with the same information as us. It makes me nervous to draft a guy who didn't produce in his year before the draft, but if Ainge picks him then I will assume that the additional information Ainge has was enough to convince him on Bender.

Just because we don't have enough information to make an informed decision on a prospect doesn't mean that Ainge won't have enough info too.

What additional Intel can he obtain that will make a difference?  What he can do 100 bumpers in less than 2 min?  He made 40 out of 50 3 pt shots this one time?    His idol is really Danny ainge?

I know Danny can get some additional info but outside of interviews, workout, watching games in person (stats and non stat impact) , what else you suggesting?

Talking to his coaches, teammates, people who know him well

Medical records, closed-door workouts (you mentioned this, but seem to be downplaying it), athletic testing

Watching him go head to head vs. other prospects

Seeing what Brad thinks about him

And I could go on. So, a lot, actually.

[Surferdad]

It`s the second time in the last 5 games he didn`t get any playtime

In the rest he played about 15mpg

His agent has probably asked to cut his minutes/injury risk before he goes to the USA for draft workouts

.

Has he been asking this the last few years because there is a pattern existing prior to his entering the NBA draft.  They been grooming him for the last few years?

I think your probably right, recently but this has happened for the last few years.   That makes me think this is business as usual.

It's almost like he's a teenage kid playing in a professional league

Which he will be in the NBA next year.

I'm not anti-Bender, but I really don't think he'll be a contributor of any kind until his third year.  He does not have the strength required to be an NBA big.  As he might still be growing, I don't think this is a character flaw, just a reality.  I think some of the board is getting too excited -- I'd like to see 21-year-old Bender on the Celtics, but the 19 year-old version will be in Maine, as will the 20 year-old version.

But, imho, that's okay.  No rookie we are draft, no matter how "ready to play" in the NBA he is this coming season, is going to be the difference to get us to the ECF and beyond.  None of Bender, Brown, Dunn, Hield or Murray as a rookie is going to get us past Lebron.

Given the Celtics current situation,whether a rookie is already somewhat, "NBA ready" or is in need of 2-3 years of development should be one of the lowest priority criteria when considering who to draft.   To me, what should be most important is what is their absolute best possible ceiling.

That doesn't mean that the most young, raw prospect has the highest ceiling, of course.  If Danny feels that a more developed, older player like Hield still has a higher ultimate upside, then that's who we should take.

But if he feels that Bender or Brown or whomever has the highest ultimate upside, despite current issues in their game, and a reasonable probability of reaching that upside, then that's who I want him to take.

Now, if Danny also makes significant trades that change the situation, then that would change how I feel about who to draft.  But likely, that sort of trade would have meant trading the pick.

this sums things up perfectly.  We need stars, not ready-to-contribute rookies (obviously, there's no guarantee that Bender will be a star, but I think it's worth the risk).  It'd be great to get both in one player, but that's just not gonna happen.  Better to get a guy that can eventually be a great player in the league even if he ends up spending a bunch of time developing in Maine.

I'd rather get a star player in 2 or 3 years than a role player now.

I follow all that and mostly agree.  However, why do so many people assume Hield will end up as a role player?  What is he missing from either his skill set or physical gifts?  He seems like a well-rounded player with the right attitude.

[Evantime34]

to be honest Bender wouldn't be so bad.

We have a logjam at the guards and every guard seems to be deserving to play. The same could not be said about our forwards. Sully/KO at times are very inconsistent and Bender at 7 ft is extremely athletic for a guy his age, and has a very good work ethic. He may even get to start if not start very soon next season. Sully might be gone soon too, and I don't know if we will pick up Amir's 2nd year option (i think we might)

Yea I'm starting to warm up to this. I would love to hear ore positive things about the kid CNN has a nice write up about him in their site today.

Me too. I would trust Danny and his team's assessment over any other "scouts" on the internet. If they think Bender did great in workouts and interviews, I will trust Ainge's decision.

That said, I still prefer Hield at the #3 spot.

Workouts and interviews are not everything.  Smart messed up his 1st session

Danny also will look at what he has done for the year. And with bender there is little to go by other than some "flash"

What a risky pick at number 3 .   This is a pretty weak draft from 3-7

Stronger from 8-31

If the Celtics front office is doing a good job, I think Ainge will have been paying attention to what Bender has done the past few years not just this year.

It is a mistake to think that Ainge is dealing with the same information as us. It makes me nervous to draft a guy who didn't produce in his year before the draft, but if Ainge picks him then I will assume that the additional information Ainge has was enough to convince him on Bender.

Just because we don't have enough information to make an informed decision on a prospect doesn't mean that Ainge won't have enough info too.

What additional Intel can he obtain that will make a difference?  What he can do 100 bumpers in less than 2 min?  He made 40 out of 50 3 pt shots this one time?    His idol is really Danny ainge?

I know Danny can get some additional info but outside of interviews, workout, watching games in person (stats and non stat impact) , what else you suggesting?

Talking to his coaches, teammates, people who know him well

Medical records, closed-door workouts (you mentioned this, but seem to be downplaying it), athletic testing

Watching him go head to head vs. other prospects

Seeing what Brad thinks about him

And I could go on. So, a lot, actually.

Tp for the list. I'd also mention that I'm sure someone on the Celtics staff has seen him in practice which I think can be a very good way to truly understand a player.

If GMs are dealing with the same amount of relevant information as fans, then the GM/front office deserves to be fired. Front offices have a full time staff to scout players, how would they not have more information than us?

[saltlover]

It`s the second time in the last 5 games he didn`t get any playtime

In the rest he played about 15mpg

His agent has probably asked to cut his minutes/injury risk before he goes to the USA for draft workouts

.

Has he been asking this the last few years because there is a pattern existing prior to his entering the NBA draft.  They been grooming him for the last few years?

I think your probably right, recently but this has happened for the last few years.   That makes me think this is business as usual.

It's almost like he's a teenage kid playing in a professional league

Which he will be in the NBA next year.

I'm not anti-Bender, but I really don't think he'll be a contributor of any kind until his third year.  He does not have the strength required to be an NBA big.  As he might still be growing, I don't think this is a character flaw, just a reality.  I think some of the board is getting too excited -- I'd like to see 21-year-old Bender on the Celtics, but the 19 year-old version will be in Maine, as will the 20 year-old version.

But, imho, that's okay.  No rookie we are draft, no matter how "ready to play" in the NBA he is this coming season, is going to be the difference to get us to the ECF and beyond.  None of Bender, Brown, Dunn, Hield or Murray as a rookie is going to get us past Lebron.

Given the Celtics current situation,whether a rookie is already somewhat, "NBA ready" or is in need of 2-3 years of development should be one of the lowest priority criteria when considering who to draft.   To me, what should be most important is what is their absolute best possible ceiling.

That doesn't mean that the most young, raw prospect has the highest ceiling, of course.  If Danny feels that a more developed, older player like Hield still has a higher ultimate upside, then that's who we should take.

But if he feels that Bender or Brown or whomever has the highest ultimate upside, despite current issues in their game, and a reasonable probability of reaching that upside, then that's who I want him to take.

Now, if Danny also makes significant trades that change the situation, then that would change how I feel about who to draft.  But likely, that sort of trade would have meant trading the pick.

Oh, I'm okay with that too.  I just get a cognitive dissonance in this thread with people on the one hand defending Bender's lack of playing time because he's a kid in an adult league, and on the other hand expecting him to be able to contribute next year as a kid in a league of better adults.  Some here are hoping for 10-15 minutes a game, and that just doesn't seem realistic at all, unless you think we're going to be like the Golden State Warriors and have half of our games wrapped up by the start of the 4th quarter.

Furthermore, I would argue that being further away from readiness should lower a pick's value.  Part of the of draft pick's value is their relative cheapness.  But Bender, if picked third, will take up $4 million of cap space this year and $5 million of cap space next year, which isn't insignificant.  Furthermore, by the time he's truly becoming a great player, his rookie deal will have run out, putting him in line for a large raise based still as much on potential as performance.  As I said when he announced he was coming to the NBA next year, I would find him a much more attractive prospect if he were to stay in Tel Aviv for an extra year or two, letting him continue to develop both in terms of skill as well as just physically, before burning through his relatively cheaper years on his rookie deal.

Now, if his upside, as well as likelihood to make it, is just that much better than alternative options at #3, so be it.  I put my faith in the Celtics evaluators to make that call.  I just think that "he's only 18" is a bit more of a double-edged sword than this and related threads are acknowledging.

[saltlover]

It`s the second time in the last 5 games he didn`t get any playtime

In the rest he played about 15mpg

His agent has probably asked to cut his minutes/injury risk before he goes to the USA for draft workouts

.

Has he been asking this the last few years because there is a pattern existing prior to his entering the NBA draft.  They been grooming him for the last few years?

I think your probably right, recently but this has happened for the last few years.   That makes me think this is business as usual.

It's almost like he's a teenage kid playing in a professional league

Which he will be in the NBA next year.

I'm not anti-Bender, but I really don't think he'll be a contributor of any kind until his third year.  He does not have the strength required to be an NBA big.  As he might still be growing, I don't think this is a character flaw, just a reality.  I think some of the board is getting too excited -- I'd like to see 21-year-old Bender on the Celtics, but the 19 year-old version will be in Maine, as will the 20 year-old version.

But, imho, that's okay.  No rookie we are draft, no matter how "ready to play" in the NBA he is this coming season, is going to be the difference to get us to the ECF and beyond.  None of Bender, Brown, Dunn, Hield or Murray as a rookie is going to get us past Lebron.

Given the Celtics current situation,whether a rookie is already somewhat, "NBA ready" or is in need of 2-3 years of development should be one of the lowest priority criteria when considering who to draft.   To me, what should be most important is what is their absolute best possible ceiling.

That doesn't mean that the most young, raw prospect has the highest ceiling, of course.  If Danny feels that a more developed, older player like Hield still has a higher ultimate upside, then that's who we should take.

But if he feels that Bender or Brown or whomever has the highest ultimate upside, despite current issues in their game, and a reasonable probability of reaching that upside, then that's who I want him to take.

Now, if Danny also makes significant trades that change the situation, then that would change how I feel about who to draft.  But likely, that sort of trade would have meant trading the pick.

this sums things up perfectly.  We need stars, not ready-to-contribute rookies (obviously, there's no guarantee that Bender will be a star, but I think it's worth the risk).  It'd be great to get both in one player, but that's just not gonna happen.  Better to get a guy that can eventually be a great player in the league even if he ends up spending a bunch of time developing in Maine.

I'd rather get a star player in 2 or 3 years than a role player now.

I follow all that and mostly agree.  However, why do so many people assume Hield will end up as a role player?  What is he missing from either his skill set or physical gifts?  He seems like a well-rounded player with the right attitude.

Here are my concerns with Hield:

1) The jump in his shooting he made this year was tremendous.  How much of that is sustainable, and how much is him having the best year of his life?  I don't doubt that he worked hard, but at the same time, the track record isn't there at all.

2) He has significant issues taking care of the ball, and isn't terribly adept at creating scoring opportunities for others.  Picking a senior guard at #3 overall, you'd like him to have demonstrated more of that ability.

[PhoSita]

Given the Celtics current situation,whether a rookie is already somewhat, "NBA ready" or is in need of 2-3 years of development should be one of the lowest priority criteria when considering who to draft.   To me, what should be most important is what is their absolute best possible ceiling.

Absolutely.

The Celts need to take the guy with the best chance of becoming a high level two-way player.

Bender's that guy at #3.  And the more I read up on him, the more I think Bender's floor actually is relatively high, with the understanding that he will take a couple years to mature physically.



Everybody, go watch some tape of what Channing Frye has done this post-season.  For that matter, check out what he did in the 2010 playoffs.

Now imagine a guy who could do the same thing offensively, with the addition of above average passing and the ability to defend the pick and roll at a high level and switch onto wings.

[Tr1boy]

to be honest Bender wouldn't be so bad.

We have a logjam at the guards and every guard seems to be deserving to play. The same could not be said about our forwards. Sully/KO at times are very inconsistent and Bender at 7 ft is extremely athletic for a guy his age, and has a very good work ethic. He may even get to start if not start very soon next season. Sully might be gone soon too, and I don't know if we will pick up Amir's 2nd year option (i think we might)

Yea I'm starting to warm up to this. I would love to hear ore positive things about the kid CNN has a nice write up about him in their site today.

Me too. I would trust Danny and his team's assessment over any other "scouts" on the internet. If they think Bender did great in workouts and interviews, I will trust Ainge's decision.

That said, I still prefer Hield at the #3 spot.

Workouts and interviews are not everything.  Smart messed up his 1st session

Danny also will look at what he has done for the year. And with bender there is little to go by other than some "flash"

What a risky pick at number 3 .   This is a pretty weak draft from 3-7

Stronger from 8-31

If the Celtics front office is doing a good job, I think Ainge will have been paying attention to what Bender has done the past few years not just this year.

It is a mistake to think that Ainge is dealing with the same information as us. It makes me nervous to draft a guy who didn't produce in his year before the draft, but if Ainge picks him then I will assume that the additional information Ainge has was enough to convince him on Bender.

Just because we don't have enough information to make an informed decision on a prospect doesn't mean that Ainge won't have enough info too.

What additional Intel can he obtain that will make a difference?  What he can do 100 bumpers in less than 2 min?  He made 40 out of 50 3 pt shots this one time?    His idol is really Danny ainge?

I know Danny can get some additional info but outside of interviews, workout, watching games in person (stats and non stat impact) , what else you suggesting?

Talking to his coaches, teammates, people who know him well

Medical records, closed-door workouts (you mentioned this, but seem to be downplaying it), athletic testing

Watching him go head to head vs. other prospects

Seeing what Brad thinks about him

And I could go on. So, a lot, actually.

Yes but some of these things are not substitute for year performance results

These 'other' things do matter, bc look at a guy like cousins for example

But you are really digging to find "special" in bender bc the obvious (year performance) is lacking. Im not comfortable with this

If there was a reason like with skal where the coach has admitted he was used incorrectly. At least that is something. But "silence" as to why he didn't get min or play = in the dark. 

[footey]

to be honest Bender wouldn't be so bad.

We have a logjam at the guards and every guard seems to be deserving to play. The same could not be said about our forwards. Sully/KO at times are very inconsistent and Bender at 7 ft is extremely athletic for a guy his age, and has a very good work ethic. He may even get to start if not start very soon next season. Sully might be gone soon too, and I don't know if we will pick up Amir's 2nd year option (i think we might)

Yea I'm starting to warm up to this. I would love to hear ore positive things about the kid CNN has a nice write up about him in their site today.

Me too. I would trust Danny and his team's assessment over any other "scouts" on the internet. If they think Bender did great in workouts and interviews, I will trust Ainge's decision.

That said, I still prefer Hield at the #3 spot.

Workouts and interviews are not everything.  Smart messed up his 1st session

Danny also will look at what he has done for the year. And with bender there is little to go by other than some "flash"

What a risky pick at number 3 .   This is a pretty weak draft from 3-7

Stronger from 8-31

If the Celtics front office is doing a good job, I think Ainge will have been paying attention to what Bender has done the past few years not just this year.

It is a mistake to think that Ainge is dealing with the same information as us. It makes me nervous to draft a guy who didn't produce in his year before the draft, but if Ainge picks him then I will assume that the additional information Ainge has was enough to convince him on Bender.

Just because we don't have enough information to make an informed decision on a prospect doesn't mean that Ainge won't have enough info too.

What additional Intel can he obtain that will make a difference?  What he can do 100 bumpers in less than 2 min?  He made 40 out of 50 3 pt shots this one time?    His idol is really Danny ainge?

I know Danny can get some additional info but outside of interviews, workout, watching games in person (stats and non stat impact) , what else you suggesting?

Talking to his coaches, teammates, people who know him well

Medical records, closed-door workouts (you mentioned this, but seem to be downplaying it), athletic testing

Watching him go head to head vs. other prospects

Seeing what Brad thinks about him

And I could go on. So, a lot, actually.

Yes but some of these things are not substitute for year performance results

These 'other' things do matter, bc look at a guy like cousins for example

But you are really digging to find "special" in bender bc the obvious (year performance) is lacking. Im not comfortable with this

If there was a reason like with skal where the coach has admitted he was used incorrectly. At least that is something. But "silence" as to why he didn't get min or play = in the dark.

Well, yes, you are right, we are in the dark regarding his lack of playing time. But there may be reason that have nothing to do with his talent, or ability to get on the court. For example, his coach could have been making the same mistake as Coach Cal. Or his agent may want his minutes limited.  Am confident that Ainge crew will sort it out. They may in fact conclude that the kid just doesn't have the ability to succeed at next level. Or they could feel like he could become the next Dirk.  Let's let the Ainge team figure it out. The cool thing is that they have the 3rd pick. So they can take anyone they want whose name is not Simmons or Ingram.  But yes, we are all in the dark right now.  But not necessarily in the Darko (could not resist).

[Tr1boy]

to be honest Bender wouldn't be so bad.

We have a logjam at the guards and every guard seems to be deserving to play. The same could not be said about our forwards. Sully/KO at times are very inconsistent and Bender at 7 ft is extremely athletic for a guy his age, and has a very good work ethic. He may even get to start if not start very soon next season. Sully might be gone soon too, and I don't know if we will pick up Amir's 2nd year option (i think we might)

Yea I'm starting to warm up to this. I would love to hear ore positive things about the kid CNN has a nice write up about him in their site today.

Me too. I would trust Danny and his team's assessment over any other "scouts" on the internet. If they think Bender did great in workouts and interviews, I will trust Ainge's decision.

That said, I still prefer Hield at the #3 spot.

Workouts and interviews are not everything.  Smart messed up his 1st session

Danny also will look at what he has done for the year. And with bender there is little to go by other than some "flash"

What a risky pick at number 3 .   This is a pretty weak draft from 3-7

Stronger from 8-31

If the Celtics front office is doing a good job, I think Ainge will have been paying attention to what Bender has done the past few years not just this year.

It is a mistake to think that Ainge is dealing with the same information as us. It makes me nervous to draft a guy who didn't produce in his year before the draft, but if Ainge picks him then I will assume that the additional information Ainge has was enough to convince him on Bender.

Just because we don't have enough information to make an informed decision on a prospect doesn't mean that Ainge won't have enough info too.

What additional Intel can he obtain that will make a difference?  What he can do 100 bumpers in less than 2 min?  He made 40 out of 50 3 pt shots this one time?    His idol is really Danny ainge?

I know Danny can get some additional info but outside of interviews, workout, watching games in person (stats and non stat impact) , what else you suggesting?

Talking to his coaches, teammates, people who know him well

Medical records, closed-door workouts (you mentioned this, but seem to be downplaying it), athletic testing

Watching him go head to head vs. other prospects

Seeing what Brad thinks about him

And I could go on. So, a lot, actually.

Yes but some of these things are not substitute for year performance results

These 'other' things do matter, bc look at a guy like cousins for example

But you are really digging to find "special" in bender bc the obvious (year performance) is lacking. Im not comfortable with this

If there was a reason like with skal where the coach has admitted he was used incorrectly. At least that is something. But "silence" as to why he didn't get min or play = in the dark.

Well, yes, you are right, we are in the dark regarding his lack of playing time. But there may be reason that have nothing to do with his talent, or ability to get on the court. For example, his coach could have been making the same mistake as Coach Cal. Or his agent may want his minutes limited.  Am confident that Ainge crew will sort it out. They may in fact conclude that the kid just doesn't have the ability to succeed at next level. Or they could feel like he could become the next Dirk.  Let's let the Ainge team figure it out. The cool thing is that they have the 3rd pick. So they can take anyone they want whose name is not Simmons or Ingram.  But yes, we are all in the dark right now.  But not necessarily in the Darko (could not resist).

Darko?  Lol. Tp

[Dino Pitino]

If our front office is genuinely psyched about Dragan and they pick him, then I'm confident they will have made the right decision. If our front office is merely signaling that they're psyched about Dragan and they trade the pick, then I'm confident they will have made the right decision. We're getting a future All Star in Bender or we're getting a future/current All Star for the pick. It's all good.

[loco_91]

Given the Celtics current situation,whether a rookie is already somewhat, "NBA ready" or is in need of 2-3 years of development should be one of the lowest priority criteria when considering who to draft.   To me, what should be most important is what is their absolute best possible ceiling.

Absolutely.

The Celts need to take the guy with the best chance of becoming a high level two-way player.

Bender's that guy at #3.  And the more I read up on him, the more I think Bender's floor actually is relatively high, with the understanding that he will take a couple years to mature physically.

Everybody, go watch some tape of what Channing Frye has done this post-season.  For that matter, check out what he did in the 2010 playoffs.

Now imagine a guy who could do the same thing offensively, with the addition of above average passing and the ability to defend the pick and roll at a high level and switch onto wings.

Yeah. I think everyone is overstating Bender's bust risk just because there have been high-profile Euro big man busts before. However, I do think there's a risk that he doesn't do much his rookie year... all the haters here will be like "Told You!" and then he'll actually become good but too late, he's a bust!

[mmmmm]

Given the Celtics current situation,whether a rookie is already somewhat, "NBA ready" or is in need of 2-3 years of development should be one of the lowest priority criteria when considering who to draft.   To me, what should be most important is what is their absolute best possible ceiling.

Absolutely.

The Celts need to take the guy with the best chance of becoming a high level two-way player.

Bender's that guy at #3.  And the more I read up on him, the more I think Bender's floor actually is relatively high, with the understanding that he will take a couple years to mature physically.

Everybody, go watch some tape of what Channing Frye has done this post-season.  For that matter, check out what he did in the 2010 playoffs.

Now imagine a guy who could do the same thing offensively, with the addition of above average passing and the ability to defend the pick and roll at a high level and switch onto wings.

Yeah. I think everyone is overstating Bender's bust risk just because there have been high-profile Euro big man busts before. However, I do think there's a risk that he doesn't do much his rookie year... all the haters here will be like "Told You!" and then he'll actually become good but too late, he's a bust!

You've played this game before, I see!

There are still folks who won't admit Avery is anything but trash.

People sometimes dig into an entrenched position and won't budge.