Kemba’s got to go...

[Goldstar88]

Yeah I would leave it up to other folks who know the rest of the league better than I do, but the ideal partner would be a team that:

1) has at least $36m in cap space, or can get there by offloading an additional contract or two;

2) has interest in upgrading its PG position OR has a big PG who can defend and wouldn't mind pairing Kemba with

BONUS would be a team whose fan base, GM, or ownership is impatient, under pressure, and looking to make a big-name splash if they strike out in the free agency market.

There will be only 1 team, NYK, that would meet criteria 1 above.  And the only way a team is going to shed enough salary to take on Walker is to (a) send the salary back to us in the trade, or (b) do a 3-way with the Knicks.

At one point, I thought the Knicks would have interest but now with Rose playing so well, I am not so sure.

You think Thibodeau would want Kemba? If you don’t play D, you don’t see the court when he’s coaching.

[footey]

I think the chance of trading Kemba without giving up a first round pick AND taking back bad salary of players who may not add any team value is slim to none.

More likely moves:

1. Accept Kemba as our point guard going into next season.  His health seems to be quite okay. He is still capable of getting 30 points on any given night. He does give us some good things.

2. Continue to develop play making skills of teammates.  Rob and Smart and Fournier each have decent play making skills.  Tatum and Brown are trending in that direction. They will get better with more experience.

3.  Find a replacement for starting PG, either in a trade or through the draft, at which time eventually turn Kemba into a high volume scorer off the bench. Maybe during next season, or if not, the season after.   Is it Pritchard?  I don't think so, but maybe? Yam?  How about Tre Mann from Florida, who currently projects to be available when we pick? Others closer to the draft can weigh in here.  Mitchell from Baylor would be awesome, but likely will be gone by the time we draft. Ditto Giddy, whose stock has risen a lot lately. 

[nickagneta]

Most likely move, and I know a whole bunch of people don't want to hear this, is no move. Kemba will be a Celtic next year. Book it!

[SparzWizard]

Trade Kemba and get some good rotational players back. Get a pass-first PG to help complement the core of Tatum/Brown/Williams.

[Celtics4ever]

We can't give him away unless we find a desperate GM buyer.

[colincb]

This season Kemba's ranked 31st best of 91 PGs in defensive REAL +/- and 17th best of 66 PGs in defensive RAPTOR. Those equate to the 31st and 26th percentile, respectively, and are pretty equivalent.

Kemba's overall Real +/- is 17th best among PGs and his overall RAPTOR is 9th best among PGs. Those equate to the 19th and 14th percentile and are pretty equivalent.

http://www.espn.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/position/1
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/nba-player-ratings/

[Somebody]

This season Kemba's ranked 31st best of 91 PGs in defensive REAL +/- and 17th best of 66 PGs in defensive RAPTOR. Those equate to the 31st and 26th percentile, respectively, and are pretty equivalent.

Kemba's overall Real +/- is 17th best among PGs and his overall RAPTOR is 9th best among PGs. Those equate to the 19th and 14th percentile and are pretty equivalent.

http://www.espn.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/position/1
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/nba-player-ratings/

For people who don't like RPM (I'm meh on it nowadays), Kemba has an O-EPM of +2.6 (94th percentile) and a D-EPM of +0.1 (63rd percentile). He's been a very good offensive player and solid defender for us this season, so it's baffling to see people suggesting that we should dump him because apparently paying a very good player max money is untenable.

[Big333223]

Since the beginning of February (37 games), Kemba's averages have been 20-4-5 with 2 TO's and a better than .500 eFG%. He's good. It doesn't sound very likely that the C's could get equal value in a trade right now but a year from now, he's going to big a big expiring contract and a much more attractive asset.

So it seems very likely that he's coming back for another season and that's not a bad thing. Again, he's good.

[Atzar]

It isn't a coincidence that this thread disappeared for two months before resurfacing after game 1. 

Tatum got the "lay off of ____" thread but maybe Kemba should have one of his own.  A lot of fans wrote this guy off after a rough first month this season - or just never embraced him in the first place.  Not really sure why, to be honest. 

[jambr380]

Isn’t the only realistic way (other than wait it out) to get Kemba off the books to package him with our #1 and maybe a youngster to a team that can absorb the cap hit? Idk who that could be.  Then sign Fournier and either let the team develop or make a fireworks trade with Brown and/or Smart.

I see this type of thing thrown around a lot and must (again) emphatically argue that we are dramatically undervaluing Kemba's value around the league. He is not a player that the Celtics will need to stuff assets alongside to "dump", and if that were the case, the team would never go that route.

Kemba has just two years left on his deal (maybe 1 if he forgoes his player option) and is coming off a year where his stats were more or less in line with his career averages, especially if you throw out those first few games when he was coming back. For pete's sake, he started the all-star game last season. This season the Celtics took caution with his knee and he responded well, all things considered.

There will be a team that whiffs in free agency this summer and is looking for something to do with its cap space, and will be willing to absorb Kemba. For instance, I could see the Celtics trading Kemba to a team with ~$20m worth of cap space, bringing back a role player making $15m or so to make it work, and still picking up a first round pick in return. There will be at least one team out there who will want Kemba in a deal like that.

Sounds good to me and hope you're correct.  Kemba just doesn't seem to be doing the things he used to -- despite the stats.   In past years he had deadly stretches from long range and was a much more reliable finisher at the rim.   His passing skills aren't great, and though I love his effort on D and his willingness/ability to take charges he's still giving up size almost every night.   I don't see a team that can absorb cap space taking on his salary and giving up decent assets in return, but again -- I hope you are correct.

We probably saw the very best Kemba is ever going to be pre-All-Star game last year, but that doesn't mean he isn't a very good player. His stats are almost eerily on par with his career stats, despite his horrendous start to the year. Even though he may not be scoring in exactly the same ways he has in the past, he is still scoring at a similar efficiency (which has never been wonderful). We also saw a nice stretch of games where he was a fantastic playmaker - getting into the lane with ease and creating wide open looks for his teammates. With Brown out, we now need Kemba to be back in scoring mode.

I definitely agree with WW, though, and think his last paragraph is spot on. If we are willing to take on even some salary (say $15-20M), I can easily see us acquiring a 1st, rather than giving up a 1st in a Kemba trade. Kemba is still a very good overall player and even elite at some very important things. I'd imagine teams seeing him healthy this season would feel a lot more optimistic about a Kemba trade now than they did before the season started.

The only 2 teams that fit the bill for 2021-22 are NY and OKC. Neither have disposable mid-level players (OKC has no player other than Al Horford who makes more than $5.4MM. NYK has no one other than Randall making more than $8.6 MM). So with either, the other team would have to come up with multiple players. Would think the Knicks would like to re-sign Rose at a much cheaper salary anyway, and anything we get from OKC won't help much from what I've seen of them.

Just to be clear - since it has now been stated twice on the last page - there are only two teams who will be under the cap at the start of free agency? Where are you guys getting these numbers? I understand that trading Kemba for nothing/a TPE is unlikely, but looking at a basic framework for team salary numbers for next year, there look to be a number of teams who could at least fall under the Kemba for a $20M contract threshold (SA, MIA, CHA, DAL, MEM, TOR, etc). Not that these teams are interested, but a quick glance shows they all have under $90M guaranteed next season (before rookie signings, team options, etc)

Anyway, I echo nick's prediction that Kemba is very likely a part of our team for 2021-22 - and I have no problem with that. I am a huge Kemba fan.

https://hoopshype.com/salaries/

[colincb]

Isn’t the only realistic way (other than wait it out) to get Kemba off the books to package him with our #1 and maybe a youngster to a team that can absorb the cap hit? Idk who that could be.  Then sign Fournier and either let the team develop or make a fireworks trade with Brown and/or Smart.

I see this type of thing thrown around a lot and must (again) emphatically argue that we are dramatically undervaluing Kemba's value around the league. He is not a player that the Celtics will need to stuff assets alongside to "dump", and if that were the case, the team would never go that route.

Kemba has just two years left on his deal (maybe 1 if he forgoes his player option) and is coming off a year where his stats were more or less in line with his career averages, especially if you throw out those first few games when he was coming back. For pete's sake, he started the all-star game last season. This season the Celtics took caution with his knee and he responded well, all things considered.

There will be a team that whiffs in free agency this summer and is looking for something to do with its cap space, and will be willing to absorb Kemba. For instance, I could see the Celtics trading Kemba to a team with ~$20m worth of cap space, bringing back a role player making $15m or so to make it work, and still picking up a first round pick in return. There will be at least one team out there who will want Kemba in a deal like that.

Sounds good to me and hope you're correct.  Kemba just doesn't seem to be doing the things he used to -- despite the stats.   In past years he had deadly stretches from long range and was a much more reliable finisher at the rim.   His passing skills aren't great, and though I love his effort on D and his willingness/ability to take charges he's still giving up size almost every night.   I don't see a team that can absorb cap space taking on his salary and giving up decent assets in return, but again -- I hope you are correct.

We probably saw the very best Kemba is ever going to be pre-All-Star game last year, but that doesn't mean he isn't a very good player. His stats are almost eerily on par with his career stats, despite his horrendous start to the year. Even though he may not be scoring in exactly the same ways he has in the past, he is still scoring at a similar efficiency (which has never been wonderful). We also saw a nice stretch of games where he was a fantastic playmaker - getting into the lane with ease and creating wide open looks for his teammates. With Brown out, we now need Kemba to be back in scoring mode.

I definitely agree with WW, though, and think his last paragraph is spot on. If we are willing to take on even some salary (say $15-20M), I can easily see us acquiring a 1st, rather than giving up a 1st in a Kemba trade. Kemba is still a very good overall player and even elite at some very important things. I'd imagine teams seeing him healthy this season would feel a lot more optimistic about a Kemba trade now than they did before the season started.

The only 2 teams that fit the bill for 2021-22 are NY and OKC. Neither have disposable mid-level players (OKC has no player other than Al Horford who makes more than $5.4MM. NYK has no one other than Randall making more than $8.6 MM). So with either, the other team would have to come up with multiple players. Would think the Knicks would like to re-sign Rose at a much cheaper salary anyway, and anything we get from OKC won't help much from what I've seen of them.

Just to be clear - since it has now been stated twice on the last page - there are only two teams who will be under the cap at the start of free agency? Where are you guys getting these numbers? I understand that trading Kemba for nothing/a TPE is unlikely, but looking at a basic framework for team salary numbers for next year, there look to be a number of teams who could at least fall under the Kemba for a $20M contract threshold (SA, MIA, CHA, DAL, MEM, TOR, etc). Not that these teams are interested, but a quick glance shows they all have under $90M guaranteed next season (before rookie signings, team options, etc)

Anyway, I echo nick's prediction that Kemba is very likely a part of our team for 2021-22 - and I have no problem with that. I am a huge Kemba fan.

https://hoopshype.com/salaries/

Used the practical cap here:

https://www.spotrac.com/nba/cap/2021/

I'm sure other teams can create cap, but there's usually a cost to doing so.

[Walker Wiggle]

On the cap… Don’t just look at the cap estimates as of today. You have to imagine that some teams will be able to manufacture space by renouncing rights, forgoing ream options, trading guys, etc. Last year Charlotte surprised everyone and nabbed Hayward by stretching Batum. It’s not going to be just the Knicks hanging around by themselves in free agency.

[colincb]

On the cap… Don’t just look at the cap estimates as of today. You have to imagine that some teams will be able to manufacture space by renouncing rights, forgoing ream options, trading guys, etc. Last year Charlotte surprised everyone and nabbed Hayward by stretching Batum. It’s not going to be just the Knicks hanging around by themselves in free agency.

True, but there are only two teams in 2021-2 that we know will have space according to Sportrac which takes some of these cap-producing actions into account. There will be some teams that are close enough to get under the cap, but getting to a level where they can absolve a good chunk of KW and only send us a mid-level talent is going to take a significant price. On top of that, Kemba's biggest issue has been availability, and until he demonstrates that he can handle a more normal workload, he's not going to draw that much action.

[Rikibellevie]

Most likely move, and I know a whole bunch of people don't want to hear this, is no move. Kemba will be a Celtic next year. Book it!

Yes Nick, like we had to book that our team was just in a bad mood and in fact was fine even when the sky was falling... Don't be so sure about what you feel sure...
Personally I think Danny knows some changes need to be done -it's not only media rethoric- and there is not many possibilities, the goner must be one or more of Kemba, Smart or TT. Kemba might still have more value than most think.
After some said that Kemba's deal was ideal because it ended on 2023 FA where big fish will be there. If it is really Danny' point, yes you are right, we may stend path, just draft our guy (and maybe not extend Fournier, just take TPE for a future expiring big contract). But I guess it will be hard position for Danny the next 2 years and it may distustthe Jays... It is also a risky bet if he doesn't catch the big fish (Giannis, Jokic or so...)

[jambr380]

Isn’t the only realistic way (other than wait it out) to get Kemba off the books to package him with our #1 and maybe a youngster to a team that can absorb the cap hit? Idk who that could be.  Then sign Fournier and either let the team develop or make a fireworks trade with Brown and/or Smart.

I see this type of thing thrown around a lot and must (again) emphatically argue that we are dramatically undervaluing Kemba's value around the league. He is not a player that the Celtics will need to stuff assets alongside to "dump", and if that were the case, the team would never go that route.

Kemba has just two years left on his deal (maybe 1 if he forgoes his player option) and is coming off a year where his stats were more or less in line with his career averages, especially if you throw out those first few games when he was coming back. For pete's sake, he started the all-star game last season. This season the Celtics took caution with his knee and he responded well, all things considered.

There will be a team that whiffs in free agency this summer and is looking for something to do with its cap space, and will be willing to absorb Kemba. For instance, I could see the Celtics trading Kemba to a team with ~$20m worth of cap space, bringing back a role player making $15m or so to make it work, and still picking up a first round pick in return. There will be at least one team out there who will want Kemba in a deal like that.

Sounds good to me and hope you're correct.  Kemba just doesn't seem to be doing the things he used to -- despite the stats.   In past years he had deadly stretches from long range and was a much more reliable finisher at the rim.   His passing skills aren't great, and though I love his effort on D and his willingness/ability to take charges he's still giving up size almost every night.   I don't see a team that can absorb cap space taking on his salary and giving up decent assets in return, but again -- I hope you are correct.

We probably saw the very best Kemba is ever going to be pre-All-Star game last year, but that doesn't mean he isn't a very good player. His stats are almost eerily on par with his career stats, despite his horrendous start to the year. Even though he may not be scoring in exactly the same ways he has in the past, he is still scoring at a similar efficiency (which has never been wonderful). We also saw a nice stretch of games where he was a fantastic playmaker - getting into the lane with ease and creating wide open looks for his teammates. With Brown out, we now need Kemba to be back in scoring mode.

I definitely agree with WW, though, and think his last paragraph is spot on. If we are willing to take on even some salary (say $15-20M), I can easily see us acquiring a 1st, rather than giving up a 1st in a Kemba trade. Kemba is still a very good overall player and even elite at some very important things. I'd imagine teams seeing him healthy this season would feel a lot more optimistic about a Kemba trade now than they did before the season started.

The only 2 teams that fit the bill for 2021-22 are NY and OKC. Neither have disposable mid-level players (OKC has no player other than Al Horford who makes more than $5.4MM. NYK has no one other than Randall making more than $8.6 MM). So with either, the other team would have to come up with multiple players. Would think the Knicks would like to re-sign Rose at a much cheaper salary anyway, and anything we get from OKC won't help much from what I've seen of them.

Just to be clear - since it has now been stated twice on the last page - there are only two teams who will be under the cap at the start of free agency? Where are you guys getting these numbers? I understand that trading Kemba for nothing/a TPE is unlikely, but looking at a basic framework for team salary numbers for next year, there look to be a number of teams who could at least fall under the Kemba for a $20M contract threshold (SA, MIA, CHA, DAL, MEM, TOR, etc). Not that these teams are interested, but a quick glance shows they all have under $90M guaranteed next season (before rookie signings, team options, etc)

Anyway, I echo nick's prediction that Kemba is very likely a part of our team for 2021-22 - and I have no problem with that. I am a huge Kemba fan.

https://hoopshype.com/salaries/

Used the practical cap here:

https://www.spotrac.com/nba/cap/2021/

I'm sure other teams can create cap, but there's usually a cost to doing so.

I love Spotrac, but are you sure these are the proper figures? Maybe I am missing something, but I am just not sure why a team like the Spurs - who show to have about $58M in committed salaries next season - do not count as a team with cap space. I mean, for the Cs, it shows us having -$155M in practical cap space. Like, I realize we are going likely be over the tax next season, but I don't think we are currently $155M over the cap. The player/salaries appear to be doubled when you click on the team.