BBD shots being blocked: is this an issue going forward?

[Roy Hobbs]

This season, many fans have gotten on BBD's case because of the number of times he's gotten his shot attempts blocked.  The question is, is this a problem, and if it is, is there reason to think that it will continue to be a problem?

For comparison sake, I compared BBD's 2009-10 season to the seasons of other elite post players.  The results are included below:

Player	eFG% From Inside	Percent Blocked (Inside)
Big Baby	.543	25%
Carl Landry (Hou)	.675	17%
Carl Landry (Sac)	.656	16%
Jason Maxiell	.656	15%
Zach Randolph	.578	14%
Carlos Boozer	.673	13%
Dejuan Blair	.622	12%
David Lee	.656	12%
Leon Powe ('08-'09)	.596	12%
Paul Millsap	.656	11%
Tim Duncan	.643	9%
David West	.615	9%
Al Jefferson	.662	9%

Two things stick out from the chart above:  BBD finishes the lowest percentage of his inside shots of any player listed above, and he gets his shot blocked the most.  Obviously, there's some sort of correlation there; it's expected that BBD would finish at a higher percentage if his shots weren't blocked, as at least some of those blocked shots would go in.

It seems clear that, all other things being equal, a reduction in the number of BBD's shots that are blocked would be a good thing.  Is there hope for the future?  BBD's track record suggests that there may be some reason for optimism going forward:

Big Baby's performance	2007-2008	2008-2009	2009-2010
Percent of Shots from Inside	71%	40%	58%
eFG% on Inside Shots	.554	.559	.543
Percent of Inside Shots Blocked	15%	12%	25%

In terms of BBD's performance to date, this year sticks out as a bit of an anomaly, as he hadn't gotten over 15% of his shots blocked in prior seasons.  This 15% figure would put him in line with many of the players above (although it must be noted that his "finish percentage" has still been historically below his rivals.)

The good news is that since this hasn't been a huge issue in the past, it's possible that it's an aberration which will regress to historical norms.  On the other hand, it could be evidence that BBD's opponents have adjusted to him, or that BBD has changed his inside game from previous years to be more of a straight up-and-down player.

So, what's the conclusion?  It's mixed.  BBD seems to be a less efficient player than many of his peers, and his inside efficiency is not necessarily trending in the right direction.  At the same time, the percentage of shots blocked is so outside BBD's historical norms that it's very possible that he can -- and will -- improve in this area.  Assuming that he does (by refining his post moves, adding more pump fakes, passing when in poor position, etc.), there's no reason to assume that BBD can't get more shots in the vicinity of the basket, and thus improve his interior scoring.

[Edgar]

tweener town.

[Spilling Green Dye]

Great analysis.  TP

I'd like to add that there might be a correlation between his increase in offensive rebounding this year and the rise in % of shots blocked.  Outside of that, I believe that as long as Davis fails to lose weight and work on his vertical during the offseasons, this will continue to be a problem.

[Redz]

Great analysis.  TP

I'd like to add that there might be a correlation between his increase in offensive rebounding this year and the rise in % of shots blocked.  Outside of that, I believe that as long as Davis fails to lose weight and work on his vertical during the offseasons, this will continue to be a problem.

Absolutely.  Just from the naked eye, I'd guess that half of the times he gets blocked are on put backs, so I guess it could be argued that it's less of a negative to have your shot blocked on a "bonus" possession.  Still, 25% is a crazy frequency.

Thanks for the analysis Roy.

[rondohondo]

If he lost about 25-30 pounds this wouldn't be as much of an issue. He just has no lift . If he spent this off season trying to get down to 260 and cut his body fat % down by a lot he would be a much more dangerous player. He already has really quick feet, but just imagine if he dedicated himself to getting into great shape. He could easily have a carlos boozer type body if he just put the time in and that would help a lot as far as his shot getting blocked .

[Andy Jick]

He should have his name changed to "Big Spalding"...  As a joke he should have that tattooed on his forehead.  Except after the 10th time it's happened in a game I no longer find it funny...

[Roy Hobbs]

Odd statistical quirk:  David Lee, Jason Maxiell, Paul Millsap, and Carl Landry (in Houston) all shot .656 from inside this year, according to 82games.com. 

[PosImpos]

He could easily have a carlos boozer type body if he just put the time in and that would help a lot as far as his shot getting blocked .

I just don't think this is true.  Boozer and Baby have very different body types.  They are roughly the same height, but that's it.  I'm not convinced Baby can be in a whole lot better shape than he is now. 

[jdpapa3]

Great analysis.  TP

I'd like to add that there might be a correlation between his increase in offensive rebounding this year and the rise in % of shots blocked.  Outside of that, I believe that as long as Davis fails to lose weight and work on his vertical during the offseasons, this will continue to be a problem.

Good catch on the offensive rebounding. That HAS to add into this equation very clearly just based on what my eye tells me.

Offensive rebounding rate this year: 13.7
Offensive rebounding rate last year: 9.5

An argument against this is that he is getting assisted on the same % of the time as last year for his around the rim shots.

I feel he would help out his % a bunch by kicking it out or with pump fakes.

And I'd probably disagree with you about the vertical. Even with the best vertical programs, you can only hope to add 2-3 inches. Barkley got vertical with weight...you either have it or you don't.

TP to Roy for doing the work for this post.

[droopdog7]

Baby seems to be shooting a lot more inside shots this year than the previuos two. And yeah, I think it is due to his more aggresive rebounding. At this point, the only way to reduce the number of shots blocked is for him to shoot fewer of his offensive rebouds. That is, he should kick the ball out more.

But is that the right move? Afterall, he seems to be shooting over 50% on those shots. M thinking he should keep doing what he is doing. Unless he loses weight, there isn't much can can do anyway.

[Eeyore III]

I think last season was his typical year.  This year, Sheed refuses to go into the post, which consequently draws Baby there like a vaccuum, when he really doesn't want to be there. Thus, his shot gets blocked more. (See, everything is Sheed's fault, in the final analysis.)  Baby needs to take more of those 18 footers.

Baby's arms are short, also.  His shot will always be blocked, inside, to a certain extent.  He should work on passing out of the post this offseason.

[ScoobyDoo]

TP, great analysis. Thanks for that.

1. I think it's not an issue. His historical norm, as you deftly pointed out, is on average with most other low post players.

2. For 5-6 years we suffered through watching Perkins hopelessly pound the ball onto the floor before every low post shot attempt trying to gather himself, only to fumble it, get it stolen or blocked becuase guys were timing him. Finally, THANK GOD, the light bulb went off and Perkins for the most part goes quickly up straight off the pass now. Or, if does dribble he now understand wehn he can get away with it.

3. It's the same for Baby. Most of his blocks come when he tries to go back up off an offensive rebound and is srrounded by two guys. If he simply learns to recognize that situation and just pass out and reset like Rodman always used to do he becomes infinately more effective immediately.

4. When Baby gets a head of steam or makes a move into the lane like a freight train it's not as big of an issue. And his outside shot doesn't get bloacked that much.

5. This and learning to create more space with his body combined with baby left and right hook shots close in...not a problem any more.     

[ScoobyDoo]

Also, 100% and emphatically agree RondoHondo.

Take off 20-30 pounds, more speed, more lift, overall a bit faster, will make a huge difference.

I agree that he doens't have a Boozer body. He's thicker in general.

However, he still has plenty of body fat to get rid of.

20-30 pounds off that body without losing any strength in the process is a simple matter of will and discipline.

He's got plenty of tire to lose right now...

[BudweiserCeltic]

I've always been a big Baby supporter, but I haven't liked how he has played this year at all. And it has nothing to do with his shots getting blocked (many of those blocks are also fouls). What has bothered me is his lack of moving the ball, and bad shot selection. He thinks he's MJ in there.

When he plays the role of a big man cutter, and let people find him for an easy 2, he's at his best, and he did that for the most part in the 2nd half in the last game.

[Mike-Dub]

Great analysis.  TP

I'd like to add that there might be a correlation between his increase in offensive rebounding this year and the rise in % of shots blocked.  Outside of that, I believe that as long as Davis fails to lose weight and work on his vertical during the offseasons, this will continue to be a problem.

Absolutely.  Just from the naked eye, I'd guess that half of the times he gets back are on put backs, so I guess it could be argued that it's less of a negative to have your shot blocked on a "bonus" possession.  Still, 25% is a crazy frequency.

Thanks for the analysis Roy.

Yeah great analysis Roy and good follow up points Spilling Green Dye and Redz.   TP Roy.