I lined up all the changes to the roster as best I could. Of course they are not all one for one but it worked out pretty close. Try not to get bogged down in who may play SG or if you think Crowder will play PF. Here is my analysis of this.
PG, no change, that is easy. At SG, Hayward for Bradley is most likely the most impactful change. I think the consensus is that this is an upgrade but my view is that this is closer than most people think. More scoring yes but less defense and intangibles. I also think Hayward is more durable which is important.
At SF, Tatum in for Green is an interesting one. I view this as good for both the near term and the long term.
Our bigs is where there is the most change. I see Morris for Johnson as an upgrade but Zizic in for Olynyk as a downgrade, at least to start. The net of the combination may end up being a wash although Zizic may improve. Baynes and Theis should be an upgrade over Zeller and Mickey but these are bench players who won't move the needle all that much.
Nader, Ojeleye, and who ever ends up replacing Jerebko just don't make that much difference.
I think this all adds up to us being only a little better than last year in terms of wins and loses but I like the roster much better in terms of how we are set up for the future. Tatum, Zizic, and even Ojeleye are all nice additions.
Thomas Thomas
Smart Smart
Rozier Rozier
Bradley Hayward Up
Brown Brown
Hunter Nader Wash
Crowder Crowder
Green Tatum Up
Young Ojeleye Wash
Johnson Morris Up
Olynyk Zizic Down
Jerebko TBD
Horford Horford
Zeller Baynes Up
Mickey Theis Up
What was our GREATEST WEAKNESS last year? Well, it could be two-fold. Lack of rebounding and being one of, if NOT the SOFTEST team on the interior. Zizic helps to fix that. 35 rebounds in the last three summer games!!! Olynyk was horrifically and frustratingly INCONSISTENT and was an absolute terrible one on one post defender and a weak rebounder. I think Zizic, based on our needs, makes us better NOW.
Saying that Baynes and Theis SHOULD BE an upgrade over Zeller and Mickey is truly laughable!!! Baynes was rated out as the 10th best center defender last year according to defensive RPM on ESPN's plus/minus!!! Zeller was absolutely a TERRIBLE defender!! Mickey should NOT even be mentioned as he could NOT even dominate for our Red Claws!! Theis was the defensive player of the year in his German Pro League!!! Come on man!!
Regarding Nader and Semi vs. Jerebko. I LOVED JJ, but Nader to literally about do it all. I saw him play in PERSON twice at the Greensboro Swarm. In the first game on February 24th, he dropped 32 with 9 assists, 8 rebounds, 1 steal, and 1 block!! I see a lot of Evan Turner in Nader. He can facilitate, rebound, score, and is a pretty good defender (which ET was not, but ET did play decent D in his last year in Boston!!)!!
Tatum for Green is a HUGE up!! Tatum can flat be a good defender, but GG could not be a good defender on his BEST day. And I loved me some GG and regularly drove about 2 hours each way to see GG and Amir play for the Fayetteville Patriots!!
If we do NOT win 60 games with this team in the weak Eastern Conference (an upgrade from the 53 we won last year!!), I will be disappointed.
Smitty77