Marcus vs Avery

[wiley]

Avery doesn't have a single above average skill that can be utilized to provide a positive impact.  His shooting is average on the wing and his on ball defensive value is significantly diminished in a league that has grown much smarter.  When you add in the fact that he is undersized, injury prone, afraid of screens, very reluctant to draw a charge, poor help defender, etc..  I mean I like Avery but I can't think of a single reason why a G.M. would want to acquire him, let alone sign him to anything resembling a big, long term contract.

What on earth are you talking about?? Bradley was pretty clearly the 3rd best player on the EC #1 team two years ago (2nd leading scorer), he is elite coming off screens/dribble hand-offs into a quick jump-shot, he was literally known as a 'bulldog', and he is as squeaky clean as they come off the court (and a great locker room guy).

It's like you have never seen AB play. Other superstar guards consistently rate Bradley as the best defensive player they have ever played against. Long wings who can hit the 3 are certainly the new hip thing, but saying AB has no place in today's NBA is just patently false.

Avery had more trash games in the 16-17 playoffs than he had good ones.  The Celtics defense was atrocious save for a few games against Chicago AFTER Rondo went down and the Bulls had NO reliable PG.  The C's small guards (including Avery) were by far the single biggest problem defensively.  Avery looked great against an offensively inept Bulls team post Rondo and pretty ineffective otherwise. 

He is NOT elite coming off screens/dribble hand offs.  I don't think he has posted an above average T.S. in his entire career.

Other superstar guards do praise Avery's on ball defense and then they proceed to move him off ball, run him off screens, force him into switches, turn him into a help defender, etc. and make him ineffective.  Teams used to be dumber and would go at guys like Bradley in isolation, they do so far far less nowadays, they instead seek out better mismatches or attack him indirectly because he simply isn't very good off the ball.  Portland did exactly this late in the 15-16 season when Boston went there.  Lillard and C.J. praised Avery both before and after the game, however during the game they just refused to go at him and moved him off ball.  If Avery picked up Lillard then C.J. would bring it up and Lillard set up on the wing and vice versa, they rendered him much less effective by doing so.

I didn't say Avery doesn't belong in the NBA.  He simply doesn't provide a positive impact anymore just as half the rest of the league doesn't.  He will find a job somewhere on the cheap in a smaller role.

As I say above, that's exactly what Bradley would have here, a smaller role. Most want Marcus back and rightly so imo, but if Bradley decided he liked being a Celtic more than he likes money and starting, we should all be thankful...

[The Oracle]

Avery doesn't have a single above average skill that can be utilized to provide a positive impact.  His shooting is average on the wing and his on ball defensive value is significantly diminished in a league that has grown much smarter.  When you add in the fact that he is undersized, injury prone, afraid of screens, very reluctant to draw a charge, poor help defender, etc..  I mean I like Avery but I can't think of a single reason why a G.M. would want to acquire him, let alone sign him to anything resembling a big, long term contract.

What on earth are you talking about?? Bradley was pretty clearly the 3rd best player on the EC #1 team two years ago (2nd leading scorer), he is elite coming off screens/dribble hand-offs into a quick jump-shot, he was literally known as a 'bulldog', and he is as squeaky clean as they come off the court (and a great locker room guy).

It's like you have never seen AB play. Other superstar guards consistently rate Bradley as the best defensive player they have ever played against. Long wings who can hit the 3 are certainly the new hip thing, but saying AB has no place in today's NBA is just patently false.

Avery had more trash games in the 16-17 playoffs than he had good ones.  The Celtics defense was atrocious save for a few games against Chicago AFTER Rondo went down and the Bulls had NO reliable PG.  The C's small guards (including Avery) were by far the single biggest problem defensively.  Avery looked great against an offensively inept Bulls team post Rondo and pretty ineffective otherwise. 

He is NOT elite coming off screens/dribble hand offs.  I don't think he has posted an above average T.S. in his entire career.

Other superstar guards do praise Avery's on ball defense and then they proceed to move him off ball, run him off screens, force him into switches, turn him into a help defender, etc. and make him ineffective.  Teams used to be dumber and would go at guys like Bradley in isolation, they do so far far less nowadays, they instead seek out better mismatches or attack him indirectly because he simply isn't very good off the ball.  Portland did exactly this late in the 15-16 season when Boston went there.  Lillard and C.J. praised Avery both before and after the game, however during the game they just refused to go at him and moved him off ball.  If Avery picked up Lillard then C.J. would bring it up and Lillard set up on the wing and vice versa, they rendered him much less effective by doing so.

I didn't say Avery doesn't belong in the NBA.  He simply doesn't provide a positive impact anymore just as half the rest of the league doesn't.  He will find a job somewhere on the cheap in a smaller role.

As I say above, that's exactly what Bradley would have here, a smaller role. Most want Marcus back and rightly so imo, but if Bradley decided he liked being a Celtic more than he likes money and starting, we should all be thankful...

The Celtics as currently constructed will have Hayward, Brown, Tatum, Smart, Rozier, Wanamaker and Morris all vying for and capable of filling the 96 available wing minutes.  They have additional depth of Ojeleye, Bird and Nader.  There is ZERO reason to even consider adding a small guard like Bradley with no positional versatility.

[wiley]

Avery doesn't have a single above average skill that can be utilized to provide a positive impact.  His shooting is average on the wing and his on ball defensive value is significantly diminished in a league that has grown much smarter.  When you add in the fact that he is undersized, injury prone, afraid of screens, very reluctant to draw a charge, poor help defender, etc..  I mean I like Avery but I can't think of a single reason why a G.M. would want to acquire him, let alone sign him to anything resembling a big, long term contract.

What on earth are you talking about?? Bradley was pretty clearly the 3rd best player on the EC #1 team two years ago (2nd leading scorer), he is elite coming off screens/dribble hand-offs into a quick jump-shot, he was literally known as a 'bulldog', and he is as squeaky clean as they come off the court (and a great locker room guy).

It's like you have never seen AB play. Other superstar guards consistently rate Bradley as the best defensive player they have ever played against. Long wings who can hit the 3 are certainly the new hip thing, but saying AB has no place in today's NBA is just patently false.

Avery had more trash games in the 16-17 playoffs than he had good ones.  The Celtics defense was atrocious save for a few games against Chicago AFTER Rondo went down and the Bulls had NO reliable PG.  The C's small guards (including Avery) were by far the single biggest problem defensively.  Avery looked great against an offensively inept Bulls team post Rondo and pretty ineffective otherwise. 

He is NOT elite coming off screens/dribble hand offs.  I don't think he has posted an above average T.S. in his entire career.

Other superstar guards do praise Avery's on ball defense and then they proceed to move him off ball, run him off screens, force him into switches, turn him into a help defender, etc. and make him ineffective.  Teams used to be dumber and would go at guys like Bradley in isolation, they do so far far less nowadays, they instead seek out better mismatches or attack him indirectly because he simply isn't very good off the ball.  Portland did exactly this late in the 15-16 season when Boston went there.  Lillard and C.J. praised Avery both before and after the game, however during the game they just refused to go at him and moved him off ball.  If Avery picked up Lillard then C.J. would bring it up and Lillard set up on the wing and vice versa, they rendered him much less effective by doing so.

I didn't say Avery doesn't belong in the NBA.  He simply doesn't provide a positive impact anymore just as half the rest of the league doesn't.  He will find a job somewhere on the cheap in a smaller role.

As I say above, that's exactly what Bradley would have here, a smaller role. Most want Marcus back and rightly so imo, but if Bradley decided he liked being a Celtic more than he likes money and starting, we should all be thankful...

The Celtics as currently constructed will have Hayward, Brown, Tatum, Smart, Rozier, Wanamaker and Morris all vying for and capable of filling the 96 available wing minutes.  They have additional depth of Ojeleye, Bird and Nader.  There is ZERO reason to even consider adding a small guard like Bradley with no positional versatility.

I thought this thread was all about if we can't retain Smart...comparing the two because one (AB) would be a clear cheaper backup plan to the ideal of Smart returning..

[The Oracle]

Marc Stein:

Hearing that the Grizzlies — who will be looking for wing upgrades with their mid-level exception — have Avery Bradley high among their free-agent targets

- AB has averaged 4 less games per season compared to Marcus after AB's rookie season when he sucked too much to get on the floor.

- I'm all for bringing Smart back at a reasonable price, but the hero worship here for Smart may be as bad as anyone I've seen on the Cs. Ever.

- AB was the better player in the 2016-17 season FWIW:

http://bkref.com/tiny/ce9Bj

No.  You are putting to much stock into "production" and extremely faulty metrics.  Production does NOT equal on court impact.  The "dinosaur" centers have been/are being pushed out of the league because you simply cannot win with them on the floor remotely consistently.  Small guards are the next biggest target to exploit and with the dinosaur centers disappearing they are next.  A bigger 3 and D guy on the wing, with no other skills, provides an easily better skill set to win with the way the game is being played now even if his "production" on offense is minimal. 

Avery doesn't have a single above average skill that can be utilized to provide a positive impact.  His shooting is average on the wing and his on ball defensive value is significantly diminished in a league that has grown much smarter.  When you add in the fact that he is undersized, injury prone, afraid of screens, very reluctant to draw a charge, poor help defender, etc..  I mean I like Avery but I can't think of a single reason why a G.M. would want to acquire him, let alone sign him to anything resembling a big, long term contract.

Do you have some better metrics?

There are no metrics anywhere capable of quantifying a players defensive prowess with any semblance of accuracy.  These metrics primarily use very limited counting stats like defensive rebounds, steals and blocks in all encompassing formulas to evaluate players playing different positions, with different roles, you just can't do that.  Would you do that with Hockey, Football or soccer who's players play different positions with different roles, the answer is no and basketball is no different.

Obtaining 12 defensive rebounds in a game or on average in a given season doesn't mean you were even a positive on defense.  Many of the best rebounders are actually big negatives on defense but these metrics will positively credit them for those rebounds.  Same goes for steals and blocks as some players get more of them by sacrificing position, while others get fewer blocks and steals while maintaining position more often and not gambling.  Which is more valuable?

Metrics that use on off numbers are subject to things like who you are playing with, as well as who you are replacing or being replaced by, good luck accurately accounting for that in a formula.  Some of these formulas even use height as a factor suggesting that if you are tall you are automatically better which isn't remotely true for everyone.  They are all garbage designed to get clicks.

[The Oracle]

Avery doesn't have a single above average skill that can be utilized to provide a positive impact.  His shooting is average on the wing and his on ball defensive value is significantly diminished in a league that has grown much smarter.  When you add in the fact that he is undersized, injury prone, afraid of screens, very reluctant to draw a charge, poor help defender, etc..  I mean I like Avery but I can't think of a single reason why a G.M. would want to acquire him, let alone sign him to anything resembling a big, long term contract.

What on earth are you talking about?? Bradley was pretty clearly the 3rd best player on the EC #1 team two years ago (2nd leading scorer), he is elite coming off screens/dribble hand-offs into a quick jump-shot, he was literally known as a 'bulldog', and he is as squeaky clean as they come off the court (and a great locker room guy).

It's like you have never seen AB play. Other superstar guards consistently rate Bradley as the best defensive player they have ever played against. Long wings who can hit the 3 are certainly the new hip thing, but saying AB has no place in today's NBA is just patently false.

Avery had more trash games in the 16-17 playoffs than he had good ones.  The Celtics defense was atrocious save for a few games against Chicago AFTER Rondo went down and the Bulls had NO reliable PG.  The C's small guards (including Avery) were by far the single biggest problem defensively.  Avery looked great against an offensively inept Bulls team post Rondo and pretty ineffective otherwise. 

He is NOT elite coming off screens/dribble hand offs.  I don't think he has posted an above average T.S. in his entire career.

Other superstar guards do praise Avery's on ball defense and then they proceed to move him off ball, run him off screens, force him into switches, turn him into a help defender, etc. and make him ineffective.  Teams used to be dumber and would go at guys like Bradley in isolation, they do so far far less nowadays, they instead seek out better mismatches or attack him indirectly because he simply isn't very good off the ball.  Portland did exactly this late in the 15-16 season when Boston went there.  Lillard and C.J. praised Avery both before and after the game, however during the game they just refused to go at him and moved him off ball.  If Avery picked up Lillard then C.J. would bring it up and Lillard set up on the wing and vice versa, they rendered him much less effective by doing so.

I didn't say Avery doesn't belong in the NBA.  He simply doesn't provide a positive impact anymore just as half the rest of the league doesn't.  He will find a job somewhere on the cheap in a smaller role.

As I say above, that's exactly what Bradley would have here, a smaller role. Most want Marcus back and rightly so imo, but if Bradley decided he liked being a Celtic more than he likes money and starting, we should all be thankful...

The Celtics as currently constructed will have Hayward, Brown, Tatum, Smart, Rozier, Wanamaker and Morris all vying for and capable of filling the 96 available wing minutes.  They have additional depth of Ojeleye, Bird and Nader.  There is ZERO reason to even consider adding a small guard like Bradley with no positional versatility.

I thought this thread was all about if we can't retain Smart...comparing the two because one (AB) would be a clear cheaper backup plan to the ideal of Smart returning..

Like I showed above even if you lose Smart there are no minutes available for Bradley on the wing, Brown, Rozier, Wanamaker, Hayward........ Even if there were minutes for Bradley I wouldn't want him on the floor paired with either Irving or Rozier as opposing teams would find or create mismatches VERY easily and the defense would suffer greatly.

[wiley]

Avery doesn't have a single above average skill that can be utilized to provide a positive impact.  His shooting is average on the wing and his on ball defensive value is significantly diminished in a league that has grown much smarter.  When you add in the fact that he is undersized, injury prone, afraid of screens, very reluctant to draw a charge, poor help defender, etc..  I mean I like Avery but I can't think of a single reason why a G.M. would want to acquire him, let alone sign him to anything resembling a big, long term contract.

What on earth are you talking about?? Bradley was pretty clearly the 3rd best player on the EC #1 team two years ago (2nd leading scorer), he is elite coming off screens/dribble hand-offs into a quick jump-shot, he was literally known as a 'bulldog', and he is as squeaky clean as they come off the court (and a great locker room guy).

It's like you have never seen AB play. Other superstar guards consistently rate Bradley as the best defensive player they have ever played against. Long wings who can hit the 3 are certainly the new hip thing, but saying AB has no place in today's NBA is just patently false.

Avery had more trash games in the 16-17 playoffs than he had good ones.  The Celtics defense was atrocious save for a few games against Chicago AFTER Rondo went down and the Bulls had NO reliable PG.  The C's small guards (including Avery) were by far the single biggest problem defensively.  Avery looked great against an offensively inept Bulls team post Rondo and pretty ineffective otherwise. 

He is NOT elite coming off screens/dribble hand offs.  I don't think he has posted an above average T.S. in his entire career.

Other superstar guards do praise Avery's on ball defense and then they proceed to move him off ball, run him off screens, force him into switches, turn him into a help defender, etc. and make him ineffective.  Teams used to be dumber and would go at guys like Bradley in isolation, they do so far far less nowadays, they instead seek out better mismatches or attack him indirectly because he simply isn't very good off the ball.  Portland did exactly this late in the 15-16 season when Boston went there.  Lillard and C.J. praised Avery both before and after the game, however during the game they just refused to go at him and moved him off ball.  If Avery picked up Lillard then C.J. would bring it up and Lillard set up on the wing and vice versa, they rendered him much less effective by doing so.

I didn't say Avery doesn't belong in the NBA.  He simply doesn't provide a positive impact anymore just as half the rest of the league doesn't.  He will find a job somewhere on the cheap in a smaller role.

As I say above, that's exactly what Bradley would have here, a smaller role. Most want Marcus back and rightly so imo, but if Bradley decided he liked being a Celtic more than he likes money and starting, we should all be thankful...

The Celtics as currently constructed will have Hayward, Brown, Tatum, Smart, Rozier, Wanamaker and Morris all vying for and capable of filling the 96 available wing minutes.  They have additional depth of Ojeleye, Bird and Nader.  There is ZERO reason to even consider adding a small guard like Bradley with no positional versatility.

I thought this thread was all about if we can't retain Smart...comparing the two because one (AB) would be a clear cheaper backup plan to the ideal of Smart returning..

Like I showed above even if you lose Smart there are no minutes available for Bradley on the wing, Brown, Rozier, Wanamaker, Hayward........ Even if there were minutes for Bradley I wouldn't want him on the floor paired with either Irving or Rozier as opposing teams would find or create mismatches VERY easily and the defense would suffer greatly.

probably wasn't clear but I was not trying to argue that the Celtics have to sign Bradley or anyone else if Smart leaves...My point was that Bradley, as a backup, is completely worthy, despite being undersized and not having enough PG skills...in other words, it's easy (for me) to picture scenarios where he'd be quite useful.  For example, I view Hayward as having enough PG skills to play the Ben Simmons role (plus shooting) for stretches.  AB would be great next to Hayward and guarding the PG.  But you're right, with the other PG's and wings on the roster there is likely no need. 

[pokeKingCurtis]

Marc Stein:

Hearing that the Grizzlies — who will be looking for wing upgrades with their mid-level exception — have Avery Bradley high among their free-agent targets

- AB has averaged 4 less games per season compared to Marcus after AB's rookie season when he sucked too much to get on the floor.

- I'm all for bringing Smart back at a reasonable price, but the hero worship here for Smart may be as bad as anyone I've seen on the Cs. Ever.

- AB was the better player in the 2016-17 season FWIW:

http://bkref.com/tiny/ce9Bj

No.  You are putting to much stock into "production" and extremely faulty metrics.  Production does NOT equal on court impact.  The "dinosaur" centers have been/are being pushed out of the league because you simply cannot win with them on the floor remotely consistently.  Small guards are the next biggest target to exploit and with the dinosaur centers disappearing they are next.  A bigger 3 and D guy on the wing, with no other skills, provides an easily better skill set to win with the way the game is being played now even if his "production" on offense is minimal. 

Avery doesn't have a single above average skill that can be utilized to provide a positive impact.  His shooting is average on the wing and his on ball defensive value is significantly diminished in a league that has grown much smarter.  When you add in the fact that he is undersized, injury prone, afraid of screens, very reluctant to draw a charge, poor help defender, etc..  I mean I like Avery but I can't think of a single reason why a G.M. would want to acquire him, let alone sign him to anything resembling a big, long term contract.

Do you have some better metrics?

Advanced stats like (defensive) win shares and VORP favor Smart. These attempt to measure impact - if I'm not mistaken DWS assigns team wins to players, and VORP compares the player's production to league average production.

Supposedly these are better measurements than counting stats.

Were there any advanced stats that favored Bradley?

I know what the stats are and mean. I was asking The Oracle what he was using to support his claims.

If I'm reading this right (having a really terrible week at work so forgive me if I'm mistaken), The Oracle was suggesting that Smart is the stronger defender. So I'd say the stats I mentioned support his claims.

Effective field goal percentage favored Avery in the basketball reference page you linked. Otherwise, I think most other advanced stats favor Smart.