2017 offseason

[TheSundanceKid]

I'm pretty confident in saying that Durant will sign a 1+1 in okc this summer and become a free agent in 2017. I also think we would have a decent chance at convincing him to join us. But we would need another star to complement him.

Combinations have been discussed quite a bit about Butler, Horford etc. But let's say this summer we simply re-sign our core and add a few rookies through consolidated picks. Then look to make our big move in the 2017 off season. I think a very nice target would be Marc Gasol.

He's signed through to 2019-20 and turned 31 this year. Not a dissimilar age to Horford but on what will likely be a cheaper contract. He put up 16.6ppg and 7rpg before injury this year, as well as 3.8apg and 1.3bpg. He has an assist % of 19.1 as well which I consider very good for a big.

I could see a situation where we resign Sully for $60m over 4 years and Turner for $30m over 3 years. Or something to that effect. If Conley leaves Memphis this summer then Gasol would likely be available around the trade deadline or heading into the draft.
A deal like Sully, Johnson and a combo of picks inc a Nets pick should get a deal done at the deadline. Or in the summer Sully, Hunter, Smart or Rozier (depending on how things turn out) and some non Nets or Memphis picks.

I don't see too much decline from Gasol, his game is very finesse and skill based. Looking at Pau's later career it looks good. He'd be a very nice fit alongside Isaiah and Durant, spreading the floor and running the pick and pop. He's a solid interior presence to go behind our pit bulls on the perimeter. I don't see anyone in the East that could neutralise his impact.

Thoughts? Would we need to give up more than I suggested or do you consider other options a better use of assets?

[Celtics4ever]

I could see a situation where we resign Sully for $60m over 4 years and Turner for $30m over 3 years.

Thankful, your not our GM.

[TheSundanceKid]

I could see a situation where we resign Sully for $60m over 4 years and Turner for $30m over 3 years.

Thankful, your not our GM.

Neither deal would be terrible value. But I didn't say I'd do it, I said I could see a situation where we do it. An alternative for example is signing Horford to a max which would start at $27,600,000 for 4 years. Is a 30 year old Horford worth that amount more than Sully at $15,000,000? Or another alternative, let them both walk and replace them with rookies. That'll make Durant come running..

[pearljammer10]

I could see a situation where we resign Sully for $60m over 4 years and Turner for $30m over 3 years.

Thankful, your not our GM.

Neither deal would be terrible value. But I didn't say I'd do it, I said I could see a situation where we do it. An alternative for example is signing Horford to a max which would start at $27,600,000 for 4 years. Is a 30 year old Horford worth that amount more than Sully at $15,000,000? Or another alternative, let them both walk and replace them with rookies. That'll make Durant come running..

Double thankful.

Both of those deals are absurdly terrible in my eyes.

[chambers]

TP for looking forward.
I think it's likely that Durant that signs the 1+1 but I think Gasol is a bit past it at this point.
I think we try and acquire Jimmy Butler or another elite wing before going for a big like Gasol or Cousins. I say this because in my opinion it's the best way to beat Golden state-make them play defense and beat them at their own game.
The great thing about IT's contract is that we could actually get
Butler
Durant
Kevin Love or Horford and still keep IT and one of Crowder/Bradley.
Signing Horford has the double benefit of not trading Crowder to get him..as we'd probably have to do in a Love trade.

[TheSundanceKid]

I could see a situation where we resign Sully for $60m over 4 years and Turner for $30m over 3 years.

Thankful, your not our GM.

Neither deal would be terrible value. But I didn't say I'd do it, I said I could see a situation where we do it. An alternative for example is signing Horford to a max which would start at $27,600,000 for 4 years. Is a 30 year old Horford worth that amount more than Sully at $15,000,000? Or another alternative, let them both walk and replace them with rookies. That'll make Durant come running..

Double thankful.

Both of those deals are absurdly terrible in my eyes.

Thank you for insulting me for pointing out two possible avenues the Celtics can take. I have yet to actually express a subjective opinion on those deals 

TP for looking forward.
I think it's likely that Durant that signs the 1+1 but I think Gasol is a bit past it at this point.
I think we try and acquire Jimmy Butler or another elite wing before going for a big like Gasol or Cousins. I say this because in my opinion it's the best way to beat Golden state-make them play defense and beat them at their own game.
The great thing about IT's contract is that we could actually get
Butler
Durant
Kevin Love or Horford and still keep IT and one of Crowder/Bradley.
Signing Horford has the double benefit of not trading Crowder to get him..as we'd probably have to do in a Love trade.

TP, That's an interesting point. The style we play currently matches up well with GS, upping the talent on the wings would give us a better chance you're right.
On the flip side would it match us up well with the Spurs? Without a true big man presence I don't think we would stand a chance matched up with them.

I have real concerns over Horford as a target. He's an upgrade over Sully for sure but at the expense of a huge proportion of our cap space? I'm not sold yet. Although it would cost assets I do think we can get better value contracts through trades which can leave us able to offer Durant a max in 2017 and have 2 other championship level scoring options on the team.
Cousins, Love and Gasol will all earn less than Horford next year yet I would call them all superior players.

Either way I'm going to take a great interest in this summer's FA. In a year's time I think we'll look back and see a bunch of teams regretting decisions made. I trust Danny to be smart enough to avoid tehm.

[saltlover]

My 2017 offseason is a bit different.  I don't think we're getting Durant as well as OKC has been playing of late.  I do think Harrison Barnes is obtainable, and so in the likely event we strike out on KD, I'd hope we sign him and Horford.  We'll probably have another $15-20 million in cap room in 2017, but by that point could have a pretty full roster.  Meanwhile, IT could still be our best player, but would have the 5th or 6th highest salary on the team.  At a certain point, that's probably going to make him chafe a bit.  I would take most of our cap room and offer IT an extension that raised his 2017-2018 salary to the $18-20 million range, and then had a few more seasons (three is the most that can be done under the current CBA) at that level.  It would create a happier star, and also keep him off the free agent market, at probably a lower cap level for future years.

Depending how much cap space is left, and how much he continues to develop, I might try to do something similar with Bradley and give him a $4-6 million or so raise.  That's less important, but I would definitely take care of IT.

[jambr380]

If we strike out this offseason and Danny really does have an eye on the 2017 offseason, I wonder if he would sign Sully/Turner to massive overpay deals for 16-17 with non-guaranteed years for 17-18 (like Amir and JJ). This would mean that neither player was able to secure a long-term deal to their liking, but they would be compensated for it and also be able to take advantage of 2017 free agency where the cap is even higher.

I really hope we do not sign Sully to a $60M contract.

[saltlover]

If we strike out this offseason and Danny really does have an eye on the 2017 offseason, I wonder if he would sign Sully/Turner to massive overpay deals for 16-17 with non-guaranteed years for 17-18 (like Amir and JJ). This would mean that neither player was able to secure a long-term deal to their liking, but they would be compensated for it and also be able to take advantage of 2017 free agency where the cap is even higher.

I really hope we do not sign Sully to a $60M contract.

I could very much see that happening, especially with Sully since he's a restricted free agent this year.  There will be a lot of money to go around next summer too, so both players should have little trouble getting a long-term deal then.  Turner would also graduate from Early Bird rights to Bird rights.  They share the same agent, which will either help or hurt matters.

[TheSundanceKid]

OK so maybe saying Sully at $60m over 4 years has detracted from the point of this... let's say reasonable contract (a term I wished to avoid because of it's ambiguity). The idea being he would be the salary ballast in trading for Gasol. The general idea being you retain the asset to be used at a later date.

If we strike out this offseason and Danny really does have an eye on the 2017 offseason, I wonder if he would sign Sully/Turner to massive overpay deals for 16-17 with non-guaranteed years for 17-18 (like Amir and JJ). This would mean that neither player was able to secure a long-term deal to their liking, but they would be compensated for it and also be able to take advantage of 2017 free agency where the cap is even higher.

I really hope we do not sign Sully to a $60M contract.

I could very much see that happening, especially with Sully since he's a restricted free agent this year.  There will be a lot of money to go around next summer too, so both players should have little trouble getting a long-term deal then.  Turner would also graduate from Early Bird rights to Bird rights.  They share the same agent, which will either help or hurt matters.

That's an interesting point about Turner. I wonder if he'd go down the 1+1 route like we are saying with Durant? If Turner did that he would have a veto on trades right? And if traded he would lose all Bird rights? Either way it would seem to work in his favour in the long run cashing in on the 2017 cap space.

I think Sully will go for the long term deal though, even if it's lower as a yearly figure. Of all of our FAs I think he will be the hardest to retain. There will be a team out there willing to gamble on his potential to take a leap forward and we may not want to commit to the long term cost.

[mef730]

My biggest fear is doing anything for the sake of attracting Durant. If our primary motivation for making a move is to influence KD to come to Boston, it's the wrong move. That's why I like the Butler example mentioned above more than Horford. The former simply has that much more upside (and yes, would cost us a lot more in terms of assets).

Mike

[nickagneta]

I know its the new trending thing to think Durant is going to sign a one year deal to maximize his money over the 2nd half of his contract but that puts a lot of risk into him staying healthy next year and not ruining his chances of maximizing his next contract. He is having a bounce back year health wise and he is being the KD we all know and love. He is taking a decent size gamble in signing a one year deal after being healthy on his many times, surgically repaired foot by putting off signing a long term deal one more year. If he reinjures that foot, he could do huge damage to his future potential earnings by doing things that way.

Besides, he is going to probably earn somewhere in the order of $200+ million over the life of his remaining healthy career if he signs long term this year and again in 4 more years. How much more does he really need to make that puts into jeopardy his future earnings potential? I think his agent will be pushing for him to sign long term this year and I think that would be the smart move.

So, if I am Ainge, I take a meeting with Durant, ask him who he wants to play with him that Ainge can bring in next year and the year after and go for the long term next year for Durant. Don't start manipulating your roster based on how Durant would want it in 2017 if he isn't willing to sign long term this off season

[TheSundanceKid]

I know its the new trending thing to think Durant is going to sign a one year deal to maximize his money over the 2nd half of his contract but that puts a lot of risk into him staying healthy next year and not ruining his chances of maximizing his next contract. He is having a bounce back year health wise and he is being the KD we all know and love. He is taking a decent size gamble in signing a one year deal after being healthy on his many times, surgically repaired foot by putting off signing a long term deal one more year. If he reinjures that foot, he could do huge damage to his future potential earnings by doing things that way.

Besides, he is going to probably earn somewhere in the order of $200+ million over the life of his remaining healthy career if he signs long term this year and again in 4 more years. How much more does he really need to make that puts into jeopardy his future earnings potential? I think his agent will be pushing for him to sign long term this year and I think that would be the smart move.

So, if I am Ainge, I take a meeting with Durant, ask him who he wants to play with him that Ainge can bring in next year and the year after and go for the long term next year for Durant. Don't start manipulating your roster based on how Durant would want it in 2017 if he isn't willing to sign long term this off season

It is the trendy suggestion. Also something to consider is the amount that the top players make from merchandise deals and the like now. In most cases it far exceeds their NBA salary. So they can afford to take a hit with their NBA salary if they think it would increase their earning elsewhere or offer a better situation for winning.

I would say though that even if Durant re-injures his foot next year he should still be on course for a max contract that summer. It might limit his options slightly but he'd still get it

[saltlover]

I know its the new trending thing to think Durant is going to sign a one year deal to maximize his money over the 2nd half of his contract but that puts a lot of risk into him staying healthy next year and not ruining his chances of maximizing his next contract. He is having a bounce back year health wise and he is being the KD we all know and love. He is taking a decent size gamble in signing a one year deal after being healthy on his many times, surgically repaired foot by putting off signing a long term deal one more year. If he reinjures that foot, he could do huge damage to his future potential earnings by doing things that way.

Besides, he is going to probably earn somewhere in the order of $200+ million over the life of his remaining healthy career if he signs long term this year and again in 4 more years. How much more does he really need to make that puts into jeopardy his future earnings potential? I think his agent will be pushing for him to sign long term this year and I think that would be the smart move.

So, if I am Ainge, I take a meeting with Durant, ask him who he wants to play with him that Ainge can bring in next year and the year after and go for the long term next year for Durant. Don't start manipulating your roster based on how Durant would want it in 2017 if he isn't willing to sign long term this off season

I think the one-year thing is not just about the money.  Especially if he stays in OKC, it's about becoming a free agent the same time as Westbrook.  It gives them one more year to win something in OKC, and then decide if they want to maintain the partnership beyond next season.  The money aspect creates an additional incentive (and the incentive is huge -- in the current CBA probably $10 million per year, and players will certainly push to get rid of the max salary altogether in any CBA renegotiation).  But there are other reasons to sign a 1-year deal than simply maximizing earnings.