All those advanced stats are interesting and informative but, in the end, can't hide what the eyes plainly see: Okafor is an extremely talented interior offensive player who can create the kind of easy offense that the Celtics need and presently lack, while Noel is a strong defensive player but a bricklayer on offense. I prefer Okafor but will settle for Noel. What I love about this is that if we get Okafor, we have him for short money for the next three years before he becomes a restricted free agent. In fact, the total salary next year of four of our starters (Okafor, Bradley, Thomas, and Crowder) would be under $30 million, giving us incredible cap flexibility.
Steimsma was an elite shot blocker - one of the best in the entire league, probably. But unfortunately that was about the only aspect of his defence that was above average - he struggled defending the perimeter, wasn't a great fundamental defensive player, wasn't a very good team defender, etc. He was pretty much a one trick pony on defence, and although that one aspect of his defence was very impressive, on it's own it wasn't enough to be a game change. Ultimately what it meant is that Steimsma was a great shot blocker, but not a great defensive player.
I see Okafor's interior scoring as being a similar deal. Okafor is an incredibly impressive interior scorer, but every other aspect of his offensive game is pretty medicore. I think he's a great post scorer, but I don't think he's a great offensive player.
The thing with Noel's defence is that he's not just a one trick pony - he isn't just a shot blocker, for example. He is extremely good at every single aspect of defence. He is an outstanding defensive player in all regards, and only adds to that by also being a solid rebounder which means that he can finish off defensive plays by securing the rebound. That's a whole package.
I also think that Noel has a better chance of becoming an acceptable offensive player then Okafor has of becoming an acceptable defensive player.
Also there have been a number of teams in the past who have been contenders with a guy like Noel anchoring the defence. The Mavs most recent championship team was a perfect example - Tyson Chandler transformed that team despite being incredibly limited offensively. Chandler had a similar impact in New York when he first went there - he made that team much, much better. Then you have guys like Mutombo, DeAndre Jordan (he's a key piece for the Clippers), etc.
How many teams have you seen reaching legit contender status with a guy like Okafor (i.e. a guy who's only talent is post scoring) in the starting lineup? If you look at the teams with talented post-up bigs in recent years you can come up with a list of guys like:
* Tim Duncan
* Patrick Ewing
* Hakeem Olajuwon
* Shaq
* Andrew Bynum
* Pau Gasol
Every one of the guys I just listed was a two way player who not only dominated the post, but also had a huge impact on defence and on the boards.
The closest is probably Enes Kanter in OKC, but here are still key differences because:
1) Kanter is not actually starting for OKC
2) Kanter is a much more well rounded offensive player then Okafor
3) Kanter is an elite rebounder
Okafor's extremely one dimensional talent set is a very unique thing. It's not really something we have pop up very often in the last 2-3 years.
Even Al Jefferson was an above average rebounder, was at least half respectable defensively, and had a reliable jumper shot.
Historically, we have seen guys like Nerlens Noel excel in the NBA - even if they never became true stars, we've seen them carve out key roles on very successful teams. I've never seen a guy like Okafor do that.
Even Brook Lopez (probably the closest comparison to Okafor) has struggled to carry any of his teams deep into the playoffs.
Big guys who rebound poorly and lack versatility (on both ends of the court) tend to not see that much success at the NBA level. That doesn't mean Okafor is doomed to fail, but I think it's a legitimate concern none the less. Especially when you factor in his advanced stats - which are some of the worst in recent years.