Author Topic: Could Horford end up being the worst contract of offseason?  (Read 91269 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Re: Could Horford end up being the worst contract of offseason?
« Reply #105 on: July 20, 2019, 11:56:24 PM »

Offline Ogaju

  • Bill Sharman
  • *******************
  • Posts: 19479
  • Tommy Points: 1871
I actually think Embiid is the front runner for MVP this year or at least top 2 along with Giannis (I'd peg Curry a close 3rd).  I think he will have plenty of opportunities to show his value on a team that is his, but is also very good.  That is basically how Giannis won it this year, and I expect Embiid to have the healthiest season of his career on a team more suited for his strengths.  Plus, I think the Sixers bump up to 55+ wins.

He is not going to play enough games to be in the conversation. They have already said he is going to have Lola’s management after running him into the ground. I’m sure this is part of the reason they got Horford. If you really believe this though you could make a fortune cause he is not even listed as a serious candidate https://sports.yahoo.com/2020-nba-mvp-odds-warriors-165728776.html
I think he gets 70 games which I think is enough.  He played 64 games and finished 7th last year.  I think he finishes pretty easily ahead of George this year and maybe Harden just because of their new teammates.  I don't think Kawhi, Davis, or Lebron jumps ahead of him either.  He was statistically better than Lillard and Jokic, they just played far more games and I don't think people really understood just how much better the Sixers were with Embiid on the court then when he was off it.  So I do think his only real competition is Giannis and Curry.  He easily could be 3rd, but I'd be pretty surprised if he is worse than that without an extended absence.

I mean they (both the front office and embid himself) have said they are going to manage his minutes more this year specifically referencing how Leonard was handled. On the heels of this Him setting a career high in minutes and games in the year they also sign horford and added oquinn would be a pretty wild turn of events.
They can manage his minutes and games better than they did and he can still play 70 games.  For example, he played big minutes in several back to back games last year.  I don't think that happens this year.  He didn't miss his first game until game 27, through 54 games he had only missed 4 games.  He played 37 minutes in game 53 and the very next night played 34 more and then was out for 8 straight games.  The reality is they didn't manage his games or minutes well at all last year.  They can manage them much better this year and he can still play more games then he did last year.

And where is the concern for the fee paying fans in all of this load management.

Re: Could Horford end up being the worst contract of offseason?
« Reply #106 on: July 21, 2019, 12:02:39 AM »

Offline Fierce1

  • NGT
  • Jim Loscutoff
  • **
  • Posts: 2630
  • Tommy Points: 121
I think the worst contract of the off-season is Rozier's.

Horford could end up in the top 3 worst contracts if he gets injured this coming season.

Re: Could Horford end up being the worst contract of offseason?
« Reply #107 on: July 21, 2019, 12:15:38 AM »

Offline tazzmaniac

  • Don Nelson
  • ********
  • Posts: 8110
  • Tommy Points: 549
I actually think Embiid is the front runner for MVP this year or at least top 2 along with Giannis (I'd peg Curry a close 3rd).  I think he will have plenty of opportunities to show his value on a team that is his, but is also very good.  That is basically how Giannis won it this year, and I expect Embiid to have the healthiest season of his career on a team more suited for his strengths.  Plus, I think the Sixers bump up to 55+ wins.

He is not going to play enough games to be in the conversation. They have already said he is going to have Lola’s management after running him into the ground. I’m sure this is part of the reason they got Horford. If you really believe this though you could make a fortune cause he is not even listed as a serious candidate https://sports.yahoo.com/2020-nba-mvp-odds-warriors-165728776.html
I think he gets 70 games which I think is enough.  He played 64 games and finished 7th last year.  I think he finishes pretty easily ahead of George this year and maybe Harden just because of their new teammates.  I don't think Kawhi, Davis, or Lebron jumps ahead of him either.  He was statistically better than Lillard and Jokic, they just played far more games and I don't think people really understood just how much better the Sixers were with Embiid on the court then when he was off it.  So I do think his only real competition is Giannis and Curry.  He easily could be 3rd, but I'd be pretty surprised if he is worse than that without an extended absence.

I mean they (both the front office and embid himself) have said they are going to manage his minutes more this year specifically referencing how Leonard was handled. On the heels of this Him setting a career high in minutes and games in the year they also sign horford and added oquinn would be a pretty wild turn of events.
They can manage his minutes and games better than they did and he can still play 70 games.  For example, he played big minutes in several back to back games last year.  I don't think that happens this year.  He didn't miss his first game until game 27, through 54 games he had only missed 4 games.  He played 37 minutes in game 53 and the very next night played 34 more and then was out for 8 straight games.  The reality is they didn't manage his games or minutes well at all last year.  They can manage them much better this year and he can still play more games then he did last year.

And where is the concern for the fee paying fans in all of this load management.
Are the Raptors fans upset that Kawhi wasn't played in B2Bs which contributed to them winning the championship?  Are the Sixers fans happy that Embiid was run into the ground at the beginning of the season which led him to miss most of the end of the season and possibly cost them a championship? 

An 82 game season is an extreme grind.  Players need to be rested to reduce the chance of injury and keep them closer to their optimum productivity.  There's even been mention of the unthinkable reducing the number of regular season games.  Personally I prefer more and better load management. 

Re: Could Horford end up being the worst contract of offseason?
« Reply #108 on: July 21, 2019, 03:31:24 AM »

Online celticsclay

  • Reggie Lewis
  • ***************
  • Posts: 15718
  • Tommy Points: 1386
I actually think Embiid is the front runner for MVP this year or at least top 2 along with Giannis (I'd peg Curry a close 3rd).  I think he will have plenty of opportunities to show his value on a team that is his, but is also very good.  That is basically how Giannis won it this year, and I expect Embiid to have the healthiest season of his career on a team more suited for his strengths.  Plus, I think the Sixers bump up to 55+ wins.

He is not going to play enough games to be in the conversation. They have already said he is going to have Lola’s management after running him into the ground. I’m sure this is part of the reason they got Horford. If you really believe this though you could make a fortune cause he is not even listed as a serious candidate https://sports.yahoo.com/2020-nba-mvp-odds-warriors-165728776.html
I think he gets 70 games which I think is enough.  He played 64 games and finished 7th last year.  I think he finishes pretty easily ahead of George this year and maybe Harden just because of their new teammates.  I don't think Kawhi, Davis, or Lebron jumps ahead of him either.  He was statistically better than Lillard and Jokic, they just played far more games and I don't think people really understood just how much better the Sixers were with Embiid on the court then when he was off it.  So I do think his only real competition is Giannis and Curry.  He easily could be 3rd, but I'd be pretty surprised if he is worse than that without an extended absence.

I mean they (both the front office and embid himself) have said they are going to manage his minutes more this year specifically referencing how Leonard was handled. On the heels of this Him setting a career high in minutes and games in the year they also sign horford and added oquinn would be a pretty wild turn of events.
They can manage his minutes and games better than they did and he can still play 70 games.  For example, he played big minutes in several back to back games last year.  I don't think that happens this year.  He didn't miss his first game until game 27, through 54 games he had only missed 4 games.  He played 37 minutes in game 53 and the very next night played 34 more and then was out for 8 straight games.  The reality is they didn't manage his games or minutes well at all last year.  They can manage them much better this year and he can still play more games then he did last year.

It feels like you are kind of going out of your way to think o f a way that he could be mvp next year. Which is strange. He has never played more than 64 games in a year in his career and has repeatedly been gassed/injured in the playoffs. The focus of the team, and now him by his own admission is being in top form when the playoffs start to try and win a championship. It’s really bizarre you think there is going to be a focus on him playing 70 games and a lot of. Minutes to win a regular season award based on everything that has been said by him in the team. Is this just another contrarian take that you got a bit carried away with?

Re: Could Horford end up being the worst contract of offseason?
« Reply #109 on: July 21, 2019, 11:05:16 AM »

Offline Moranis

  • James Naismith
  • *********************************
  • Posts: 33431
  • Tommy Points: 1532
I actually think Embiid is the front runner for MVP this year or at least top 2 along with Giannis (I'd peg Curry a close 3rd).  I think he will have plenty of opportunities to show his value on a team that is his, but is also very good.  That is basically how Giannis won it this year, and I expect Embiid to have the healthiest season of his career on a team more suited for his strengths.  Plus, I think the Sixers bump up to 55+ wins.

He is not going to play enough games to be in the conversation. They have already said he is going to have Lola’s management after running him into the ground. I’m sure this is part of the reason they got Horford. If you really believe this though you could make a fortune cause he is not even listed as a serious candidate https://sports.yahoo.com/2020-nba-mvp-odds-warriors-165728776.html
I think he gets 70 games which I think is enough.  He played 64 games and finished 7th last year.  I think he finishes pretty easily ahead of George this year and maybe Harden just because of their new teammates.  I don't think Kawhi, Davis, or Lebron jumps ahead of him either.  He was statistically better than Lillard and Jokic, they just played far more games and I don't think people really understood just how much better the Sixers were with Embiid on the court then when he was off it.  So I do think his only real competition is Giannis and Curry.  He easily could be 3rd, but I'd be pretty surprised if he is worse than that without an extended absence.

I mean they (both the front office and embid himself) have said they are going to manage his minutes more this year specifically referencing how Leonard was handled. On the heels of this Him setting a career high in minutes and games in the year they also sign horford and added oquinn would be a pretty wild turn of events.
They can manage his minutes and games better than they did and he can still play 70 games.  For example, he played big minutes in several back to back games last year.  I don't think that happens this year.  He didn't miss his first game until game 27, through 54 games he had only missed 4 games.  He played 37 minutes in game 53 and the very next night played 34 more and then was out for 8 straight games.  The reality is they didn't manage his games or minutes well at all last year.  They can manage them much better this year and he can still play more games then he did last year.
If I'm the Sixers when I get the schedule, I'd find all the B2Bs and layout how it would look with neither Embiid or Horford playing both games (i.e. separate them for B2Bs).  There are no B2Bs in the playoffs so no reason for either of them to do B2Bs in the regular season.
That is what I am saying.  If they actually manage his games and minutes, I think he hits around 70 games.  They just didn't manage his games at all last year. 
2023 Historical Draft - Brooklyn Nets - 9th pick

Bigs - Pau, Amar'e, Issel, McGinnis, Roundfield
Wings - Dantley, Bowen, J. Jackson
Guards - Cheeks, Petrovic, Buse, Rip

Re: Could Horford end up being the worst contract of offseason?
« Reply #110 on: July 21, 2019, 11:26:36 AM »

Offline tazzmaniac

  • Don Nelson
  • ********
  • Posts: 8110
  • Tommy Points: 549
I actually think Embiid is the front runner for MVP this year or at least top 2 along with Giannis (I'd peg Curry a close 3rd).  I think he will have plenty of opportunities to show his value on a team that is his, but is also very good.  That is basically how Giannis won it this year, and I expect Embiid to have the healthiest season of his career on a team more suited for his strengths.  Plus, I think the Sixers bump up to 55+ wins.

He is not going to play enough games to be in the conversation. They have already said he is going to have Lola’s management after running him into the ground. I’m sure this is part of the reason they got Horford. If you really believe this though you could make a fortune cause he is not even listed as a serious candidate https://sports.yahoo.com/2020-nba-mvp-odds-warriors-165728776.html
I think he gets 70 games which I think is enough.  He played 64 games and finished 7th last year.  I think he finishes pretty easily ahead of George this year and maybe Harden just because of their new teammates.  I don't think Kawhi, Davis, or Lebron jumps ahead of him either.  He was statistically better than Lillard and Jokic, they just played far more games and I don't think people really understood just how much better the Sixers were with Embiid on the court then when he was off it.  So I do think his only real competition is Giannis and Curry.  He easily could be 3rd, but I'd be pretty surprised if he is worse than that without an extended absence.

I mean they (both the front office and embid himself) have said they are going to manage his minutes more this year specifically referencing how Leonard was handled. On the heels of this Him setting a career high in minutes and games in the year they also sign horford and added oquinn would be a pretty wild turn of events.
They can manage his minutes and games better than they did and he can still play 70 games.  For example, he played big minutes in several back to back games last year.  I don't think that happens this year.  He didn't miss his first game until game 27, through 54 games he had only missed 4 games.  He played 37 minutes in game 53 and the very next night played 34 more and then was out for 8 straight games.  The reality is they didn't manage his games or minutes well at all last year.  They can manage them much better this year and he can still play more games then he did last year.
If I'm the Sixers when I get the schedule, I'd find all the B2Bs and layout how it would look with neither Embiid or Horford playing both games (i.e. separate them for B2Bs).  There are no B2Bs in the playoffs so no reason for either of them to do B2Bs in the regular season.
That is what I am saying.  If they actually manage his games and minutes, I think he hits around 70 games.  They just didn't manage his games at all last year.
Excluding B2Bs by itself will get him down to 69 or 70 games and they'll be some more missed games.  My guess is 65 games but if I had to bet I'd say closer to 60 than 70.  The only reason I could see them pushing him to 70 games is if they are in a close race for the #1 seed but doing so would be a mistake in my opinion. 

Re: Could Horford end up being the worst contract of offseason?
« Reply #111 on: July 21, 2019, 11:27:35 AM »

Offline gpap

  • Don Nelson
  • ********
  • Posts: 8224
  • Tommy Points: 417
I think the worst contract of the off-season is Rozier's.

Horford could end up in the top 3 worst contracts if he gets injured this coming season.

I'm happier about Rozier being off the team than I am about Kyrie.

I actually wanted Kyrie to stay (even after all the BS)

Re: Could Horford end up being the worst contract of offseason?
« Reply #112 on: July 21, 2019, 02:13:13 PM »

Offline Moranis

  • James Naismith
  • *********************************
  • Posts: 33431
  • Tommy Points: 1532
I actually think Embiid is the front runner for MVP this year or at least top 2 along with Giannis (I'd peg Curry a close 3rd).  I think he will have plenty of opportunities to show his value on a team that is his, but is also very good.  That is basically how Giannis won it this year, and I expect Embiid to have the healthiest season of his career on a team more suited for his strengths.  Plus, I think the Sixers bump up to 55+ wins.

He is not going to play enough games to be in the conversation. They have already said he is going to have Lola’s management after running him into the ground. I’m sure this is part of the reason they got Horford. If you really believe this though you could make a fortune cause he is not even listed as a serious candidate https://sports.yahoo.com/2020-nba-mvp-odds-warriors-165728776.html
I think he gets 70 games which I think is enough.  He played 64 games and finished 7th last year.  I think he finishes pretty easily ahead of George this year and maybe Harden just because of their new teammates.  I don't think Kawhi, Davis, or Lebron jumps ahead of him either.  He was statistically better than Lillard and Jokic, they just played far more games and I don't think people really understood just how much better the Sixers were with Embiid on the court then when he was off it.  So I do think his only real competition is Giannis and Curry.  He easily could be 3rd, but I'd be pretty surprised if he is worse than that without an extended absence.

I mean they (both the front office and embid himself) have said they are going to manage his minutes more this year specifically referencing how Leonard was handled. On the heels of this Him setting a career high in minutes and games in the year they also sign horford and added oquinn would be a pretty wild turn of events.
They can manage his minutes and games better than they did and he can still play 70 games.  For example, he played big minutes in several back to back games last year.  I don't think that happens this year.  He didn't miss his first game until game 27, through 54 games he had only missed 4 games.  He played 37 minutes in game 53 and the very next night played 34 more and then was out for 8 straight games.  The reality is they didn't manage his games or minutes well at all last year.  They can manage them much better this year and he can still play more games then he did last year.
If I'm the Sixers when I get the schedule, I'd find all the B2Bs and layout how it would look with neither Embiid or Horford playing both games (i.e. separate them for B2Bs).  There are no B2Bs in the playoffs so no reason for either of them to do B2Bs in the regular season.
That is what I am saying.  If they actually manage his games and minutes, I think he hits around 70 games.  They just didn't manage his games at all last year.
Excluding B2Bs by itself will get him down to 69 or 70 games and they'll be some more missed games.  My guess is 65 games but if I had to bet I'd say closer to 60 than 70.  The only reason I could see them pushing him to 70 games is if they are in a close race for the #1 seed but doing so would be a mistake in my opinion.
The Sixers played 12 last year, but I don't know that he misses them all this year.  The real problem he had was the Sixers had a very front loaded B2B schedule. I mean they had 4 sets for B2B's in their first 14 games and another through game 18.  Embiid played both games of all 5 of those.  That was the problem.  They also ended with 4 of their last 5 games being part of a B2B.  Just a very strange schedule.
2023 Historical Draft - Brooklyn Nets - 9th pick

Bigs - Pau, Amar'e, Issel, McGinnis, Roundfield
Wings - Dantley, Bowen, J. Jackson
Guards - Cheeks, Petrovic, Buse, Rip

Re: Could Horford end up being the worst contract of offseason?
« Reply #113 on: July 21, 2019, 02:20:51 PM »

Offline Moranis

  • James Naismith
  • *********************************
  • Posts: 33431
  • Tommy Points: 1532
I actually think Embiid is the front runner for MVP this year or at least top 2 along with Giannis (I'd peg Curry a close 3rd).  I think he will have plenty of opportunities to show his value on a team that is his, but is also very good.  That is basically how Giannis won it this year, and I expect Embiid to have the healthiest season of his career on a team more suited for his strengths.  Plus, I think the Sixers bump up to 55+ wins.

He is not going to play enough games to be in the conversation. They have already said he is going to have Lola’s management after running him into the ground. I’m sure this is part of the reason they got Horford. If you really believe this though you could make a fortune cause he is not even listed as a serious candidate https://sports.yahoo.com/2020-nba-mvp-odds-warriors-165728776.html
I think he gets 70 games which I think is enough.  He played 64 games and finished 7th last year.  I think he finishes pretty easily ahead of George this year and maybe Harden just because of their new teammates.  I don't think Kawhi, Davis, or Lebron jumps ahead of him either.  He was statistically better than Lillard and Jokic, they just played far more games and I don't think people really understood just how much better the Sixers were with Embiid on the court then when he was off it.  So I do think his only real competition is Giannis and Curry.  He easily could be 3rd, but I'd be pretty surprised if he is worse than that without an extended absence.

I mean they (both the front office and embid himself) have said they are going to manage his minutes more this year specifically referencing how Leonard was handled. On the heels of this Him setting a career high in minutes and games in the year they also sign horford and added oquinn would be a pretty wild turn of events.
They can manage his minutes and games better than they did and he can still play 70 games.  For example, he played big minutes in several back to back games last year.  I don't think that happens this year.  He didn't miss his first game until game 27, through 54 games he had only missed 4 games.  He played 37 minutes in game 53 and the very next night played 34 more and then was out for 8 straight games.  The reality is they didn't manage his games or minutes well at all last year.  They can manage them much better this year and he can still play more games then he did last year.

It feels like you are kind of going out of your way to think o f a way that he could be mvp next year. Which is strange. He has never played more than 64 games in a year in his career and has repeatedly been gassed/injured in the playoffs. The focus of the team, and now him by his own admission is being in top form when the playoffs start to try and win a championship. It’s really bizarre you think there is going to be a focus on him playing 70 games and a lot of. Minutes to win a regular season award based on everything that has been said by him in the team. Is this just another contrarian take that you got a bit carried away with?
I don't think there is a goal or a focus on that.  They absolutely care more about winning a title than any sort of games or awards for a player, but I think those sort of go hand in hand.  They need Embiid to play a lot to win a title because they need homecourt advantage.  If game 7 was in Philly, they probably beat Toronto.  I don't know that they go on the road and beat Milwaukee either.  The Sixers need the 1 seed and to do that they need Embiid to play a bunch of games.  Clearly his health is the most important thing, but playing will also help his stamina and as we've seen stamina is a real concern for Embiid. You don't fix stamina by not playing.  Embiid needs to play for the Sixers to achieve their ultimate goal.  They don't need to go crazy with his minutes or his off days, but by merely taking a reasonable approach with him, they will have a much better shot at winning the title.
2023 Historical Draft - Brooklyn Nets - 9th pick

Bigs - Pau, Amar'e, Issel, McGinnis, Roundfield
Wings - Dantley, Bowen, J. Jackson
Guards - Cheeks, Petrovic, Buse, Rip

Re: Could Horford end up being the worst contract of offseason?
« Reply #114 on: July 22, 2019, 07:39:30 AM »

Offline philr13

  • Brad Stevens
  • Posts: 237
  • Tommy Points: 22
To my mind the Sixers signed the 2 worst contracts of this off-season. Horford and Harris.

There were a lot of overpays around the league this year, but $97M over 4 years for Horford is pretty astounding. Especially considering that at some point he'll be relegated to being a backup center.

I think the Harris deal is the worst though. He's been a good player where ever he's been, but he's not a 30M per year player. He simply doesn't have that kind of impact. That's why he's been traded so many times. His new deal starts at $32M per year and climbs to $39M over 5 years! $180M over 5 years!

Re: Could Horford end up being the worst contract of offseason?
« Reply #115 on: July 22, 2019, 02:01:04 PM »

Online celticsclay

  • Reggie Lewis
  • ***************
  • Posts: 15718
  • Tommy Points: 1386
I actually think Embiid is the front runner for MVP this year or at least top 2 along with Giannis (I'd peg Curry a close 3rd).  I think he will have plenty of opportunities to show his value on a team that is his, but is also very good.  That is basically how Giannis won it this year, and I expect Embiid to have the healthiest season of his career on a team more suited for his strengths.  Plus, I think the Sixers bump up to 55+ wins.

He is not going to play enough games to be in the conversation. They have already said he is going to have Lola’s management after running him into the ground. I’m sure this is part of the reason they got Horford. If you really believe this though you could make a fortune cause he is not even listed as a serious candidate https://sports.yahoo.com/2020-nba-mvp-odds-warriors-165728776.html
I think he gets 70 games which I think is enough.  He played 64 games and finished 7th last year.  I think he finishes pretty easily ahead of George this year and maybe Harden just because of their new teammates.  I don't think Kawhi, Davis, or Lebron jumps ahead of him either.  He was statistically better than Lillard and Jokic, they just played far more games and I don't think people really understood just how much better the Sixers were with Embiid on the court then when he was off it.  So I do think his only real competition is Giannis and Curry.  He easily could be 3rd, but I'd be pretty surprised if he is worse than that without an extended absence.

I mean they (both the front office and embid himself) have said they are going to manage his minutes more this year specifically referencing how Leonard was handled. On the heels of this Him setting a career high in minutes and games in the year they also sign horford and added oquinn would be a pretty wild turn of events.
They can manage his minutes and games better than they did and he can still play 70 games.  For example, he played big minutes in several back to back games last year.  I don't think that happens this year.  He didn't miss his first game until game 27, through 54 games he had only missed 4 games.  He played 37 minutes in game 53 and the very next night played 34 more and then was out for 8 straight games.  The reality is they didn't manage his games or minutes well at all last year.  They can manage them much better this year and he can still play more games then he did last year.

It feels like you are kind of going out of your way to think o f a way that he could be mvp next year. Which is strange. He has never played more than 64 games in a year in his career and has repeatedly been gassed/injured in the playoffs. The focus of the team, and now him by his own admission is being in top form when the playoffs start to try and win a championship. It’s really bizarre you think there is going to be a focus on him playing 70 games and a lot of. Minutes to win a regular season award based on everything that has been said by him in the team. Is this just another contrarian take that you got a bit carried away with?
I don't think there is a goal or a focus on that.  They absolutely care more about winning a title than any sort of games or awards for a player, but I think those sort of go hand in hand.  They need Embiid to play a lot to win a title because they need homecourt advantage.  If game 7 was in Philly, they probably beat Toronto.  I don't know that they go on the road and beat Milwaukee either.  The Sixers need the 1 seed and to do that they need Embiid to play a bunch of games.  Clearly his health is the most important thing, but playing will also help his stamina and as we've seen stamina is a real concern for Embiid. You don't fix stamina by not playing.  Embiid needs to play for the Sixers to achieve their ultimate goal.  They don't need to go crazy with his minutes or his off days, but by merely taking a reasonable approach with him, they will have a much better shot at winning the title.

There are different kinds of things that happen when a player is gunning for an MVP (Look at the some of the things that have been happening with Westbrook looking for triple doubles in games that have already been decided as a win or lose, or some of the times Lebron was playing the last few years). This is another part the load management intersects with chances for individual awards. If the 76ers are up 18 in the 4th (and this certainly will happen sometimes cause they are a good team) they are not going to play him in the game like they have may considered in previous years. This will not impact their wins or losses, or race for number 1 seed, but it will suppress his numbers at the end of the year when people are looking at them. You add in that he is starting with a baseline of missing 10 games over the course of the season and it really just isn't feasible at all to win MVP.

Re: Could Horford end up being the worst contract of offseason?
« Reply #116 on: July 22, 2019, 02:16:13 PM »

Offline Moranis

  • James Naismith
  • *********************************
  • Posts: 33431
  • Tommy Points: 1532
I actually think Embiid is the front runner for MVP this year or at least top 2 along with Giannis (I'd peg Curry a close 3rd).  I think he will have plenty of opportunities to show his value on a team that is his, but is also very good.  That is basically how Giannis won it this year, and I expect Embiid to have the healthiest season of his career on a team more suited for his strengths.  Plus, I think the Sixers bump up to 55+ wins.

He is not going to play enough games to be in the conversation. They have already said he is going to have Lola’s management after running him into the ground. I’m sure this is part of the reason they got Horford. If you really believe this though you could make a fortune cause he is not even listed as a serious candidate https://sports.yahoo.com/2020-nba-mvp-odds-warriors-165728776.html
I think he gets 70 games which I think is enough.  He played 64 games and finished 7th last year.  I think he finishes pretty easily ahead of George this year and maybe Harden just because of their new teammates.  I don't think Kawhi, Davis, or Lebron jumps ahead of him either.  He was statistically better than Lillard and Jokic, they just played far more games and I don't think people really understood just how much better the Sixers were with Embiid on the court then when he was off it.  So I do think his only real competition is Giannis and Curry.  He easily could be 3rd, but I'd be pretty surprised if he is worse than that without an extended absence.

I mean they (both the front office and embid himself) have said they are going to manage his minutes more this year specifically referencing how Leonard was handled. On the heels of this Him setting a career high in minutes and games in the year they also sign horford and added oquinn would be a pretty wild turn of events.
They can manage his minutes and games better than they did and he can still play 70 games.  For example, he played big minutes in several back to back games last year.  I don't think that happens this year.  He didn't miss his first game until game 27, through 54 games he had only missed 4 games.  He played 37 minutes in game 53 and the very next night played 34 more and then was out for 8 straight games.  The reality is they didn't manage his games or minutes well at all last year.  They can manage them much better this year and he can still play more games then he did last year.

It feels like you are kind of going out of your way to think o f a way that he could be mvp next year. Which is strange. He has never played more than 64 games in a year in his career and has repeatedly been gassed/injured in the playoffs. The focus of the team, and now him by his own admission is being in top form when the playoffs start to try and win a championship. It’s really bizarre you think there is going to be a focus on him playing 70 games and a lot of. Minutes to win a regular season award based on everything that has been said by him in the team. Is this just another contrarian take that you got a bit carried away with?
I don't think there is a goal or a focus on that.  They absolutely care more about winning a title than any sort of games or awards for a player, but I think those sort of go hand in hand.  They need Embiid to play a lot to win a title because they need homecourt advantage.  If game 7 was in Philly, they probably beat Toronto.  I don't know that they go on the road and beat Milwaukee either.  The Sixers need the 1 seed and to do that they need Embiid to play a bunch of games.  Clearly his health is the most important thing, but playing will also help his stamina and as we've seen stamina is a real concern for Embiid. You don't fix stamina by not playing.  Embiid needs to play for the Sixers to achieve their ultimate goal.  They don't need to go crazy with his minutes or his off days, but by merely taking a reasonable approach with him, they will have a much better shot at winning the title.

There are different kinds of things that happen when a player is gunning for an MVP (Look at the some of the things that have been happening with Westbrook looking for triple doubles in games that have already been decided as a win or lose, or some of the times Lebron was playing the last few years). This is another part the load management intersects with chances for individual awards. If the 76ers are up 18 in the 4th (and this certainly will happen sometimes cause they are a good team) they are not going to play him in the game like they have may considered in previous years. This will not impact their wins or losses, or race for number 1 seed, but it will suppress his numbers at the end of the year when people are looking at them. You add in that he is starting with a baseline of missing 10 games over the course of the season and it really just isn't feasible at all to win MVP.
Do you think Embiid is playing less than 30 mpg?  I mean Giannis won the MVP at 32.8 mpg last year and played in just 72 games.  Giannis sat out a lot of 4th quarters as well because the Bucks were crushing a lot of teams.  The Bucks weren't gunning for getting Giannis the MVP either.  He was just that good and that impactful.  Embiid is absolutely that type of player.  I mean he was 4th in ppg, 2nd in rpg, and 6th in bpg last year.  I don't see his numbers (or league positioning) changing all that much. 

And again I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him finish 3rd to Curry and Giannis (as they will have incredible stats and be on good teams also).  And of course anything can happen and somebody might have an unbelievable season, but assuming Embiid is healthy (and that is a big assumption) even with load management I'd be a bit surprised if he didn't finish in the top 3 in MVP voting.
2023 Historical Draft - Brooklyn Nets - 9th pick

Bigs - Pau, Amar'e, Issel, McGinnis, Roundfield
Wings - Dantley, Bowen, J. Jackson
Guards - Cheeks, Petrovic, Buse, Rip

Re: Could Horford end up being the worst contract of offseason?
« Reply #117 on: July 22, 2019, 03:10:29 PM »

Online celticsclay

  • Reggie Lewis
  • ***************
  • Posts: 15718
  • Tommy Points: 1386
I actually think Embiid is the front runner for MVP this year or at least top 2 along with Giannis (I'd peg Curry a close 3rd).  I think he will have plenty of opportunities to show his value on a team that is his, but is also very good.  That is basically how Giannis won it this year, and I expect Embiid to have the healthiest season of his career on a team more suited for his strengths.  Plus, I think the Sixers bump up to 55+ wins.

He is not going to play enough games to be in the conversation. They have already said he is going to have Lola’s management after running him into the ground. I’m sure this is part of the reason they got Horford. If you really believe this though you could make a fortune cause he is not even listed as a serious candidate https://sports.yahoo.com/2020-nba-mvp-odds-warriors-165728776.html
I think he gets 70 games which I think is enough.  He played 64 games and finished 7th last year.  I think he finishes pretty easily ahead of George this year and maybe Harden just because of their new teammates.  I don't think Kawhi, Davis, or Lebron jumps ahead of him either.  He was statistically better than Lillard and Jokic, they just played far more games and I don't think people really understood just how much better the Sixers were with Embiid on the court then when he was off it.  So I do think his only real competition is Giannis and Curry.  He easily could be 3rd, but I'd be pretty surprised if he is worse than that without an extended absence.

I mean they (both the front office and embid himself) have said they are going to manage his minutes more this year specifically referencing how Leonard was handled. On the heels of this Him setting a career high in minutes and games in the year they also sign horford and added oquinn would be a pretty wild turn of events.
They can manage his minutes and games better than they did and he can still play 70 games.  For example, he played big minutes in several back to back games last year.  I don't think that happens this year.  He didn't miss his first game until game 27, through 54 games he had only missed 4 games.  He played 37 minutes in game 53 and the very next night played 34 more and then was out for 8 straight games.  The reality is they didn't manage his games or minutes well at all last year.  They can manage them much better this year and he can still play more games then he did last year.

It feels like you are kind of going out of your way to think o f a way that he could be mvp next year. Which is strange. He has never played more than 64 games in a year in his career and has repeatedly been gassed/injured in the playoffs. The focus of the team, and now him by his own admission is being in top form when the playoffs start to try and win a championship. It’s really bizarre you think there is going to be a focus on him playing 70 games and a lot of. Minutes to win a regular season award based on everything that has been said by him in the team. Is this just another contrarian take that you got a bit carried away with?
I don't think there is a goal or a focus on that.  They absolutely care more about winning a title than any sort of games or awards for a player, but I think those sort of go hand in hand.  They need Embiid to play a lot to win a title because they need homecourt advantage.  If game 7 was in Philly, they probably beat Toronto.  I don't know that they go on the road and beat Milwaukee either.  The Sixers need the 1 seed and to do that they need Embiid to play a bunch of games.  Clearly his health is the most important thing, but playing will also help his stamina and as we've seen stamina is a real concern for Embiid. You don't fix stamina by not playing.  Embiid needs to play for the Sixers to achieve their ultimate goal.  They don't need to go crazy with his minutes or his off days, but by merely taking a reasonable approach with him, they will have a much better shot at winning the title.

There are different kinds of things that happen when a player is gunning for an MVP (Look at the some of the things that have been happening with Westbrook looking for triple doubles in games that have already been decided as a win or lose, or some of the times Lebron was playing the last few years). This is another part the load management intersects with chances for individual awards. If the 76ers are up 18 in the 4th (and this certainly will happen sometimes cause they are a good team) they are not going to play him in the game like they have may considered in previous years. This will not impact their wins or losses, or race for number 1 seed, but it will suppress his numbers at the end of the year when people are looking at them. You add in that he is starting with a baseline of missing 10 games over the course of the season and it really just isn't feasible at all to win MVP.
Do you think Embiid is playing less than 30 mpg?  I mean Giannis won the MVP at 32.8 mpg last year and played in just 72 games.  Giannis sat out a lot of 4th quarters as well because the Bucks were crushing a lot of teams.  The Bucks weren't gunning for getting Giannis the MVP either.  He was just that good and that impactful.  Embiid is absolutely that type of player.  I mean he was 4th in ppg, 2nd in rpg, and 6th in bpg last year.  I don't see his numbers (or league positioning) changing all that much. 

And again I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him finish 3rd to Curry and Giannis (as they will have incredible stats and be on good teams also).  And of course anything can happen and somebody might have an unbelievable season, but assuming Embiid is healthy (and that is a big assumption) even with load management I'd be a bit surprised if he didn't finish in the top 3 in MVP voting.

I think he will play about 3-4 less minutes per game this year than last year. His minutes were up from 30-33.7 partially cause they had no backups that didn't actually kill them. There were also a lot of strange situations where he was playing in games that were clearly decided and philly fans were screaming at the tv to get him off the court. I am not sure if this was Embiid wanted to make individual accolades (it was weird he played in all-star game when he would go to miss half the second half from tendinitis) or if the team just had complete lack of faith in other players, but it seems like everyone involved is now on a completely different page than what they were doing last year.  It seems like everyone involved realized the 33.7 was too much and aggravated his knees  (do you realize he led the entire league for minutes for centers last year?).

 If you go back down to the level of 30mpg he was at the year before that is 10-12% less playing time so you can probably expect a 10-12% drop in points and rebounds. That is probably bringing him down to something like 24 and 10 (which is obviously outstanding), but won't usually get you in a top 3 MVP finish. It is also just really hard for centers to be serious contenders for MVP cause they generally play less minutes. Westbrook, Harden and George were all up between 36 and 37 minutes a game last year, before the davis trade demand hijinks he had been playing 36+ himself. While there is certainly a push towards advanced stats and per minute stats compared to 10 years ago, I still think people are not going to be able swallowing not voting for the crazy video games numbers guys like Giannis, Harden, Curry, Davis can put up from being out there 15% more minutes than a center. There hasn't been a center to win it since 2003.

« Last Edit: July 22, 2019, 03:15:55 PM by celticsclay »

Re: Could Horford end up being the worst contract of offseason?
« Reply #118 on: August 14, 2019, 02:02:39 PM »

Offline johnnygreen

  • Bailey Howell
  • **
  • Posts: 2255
  • Tommy Points: 298
I really like Al, and thought he brought a ton to the Celtics. I just think he’s a bad fit for the Sixers, as his addition basically forces Ben Simmons to play SF now. I thought Simmons was a great modern day PF because of his frame and ability to rebound and immediately start a break. His inability to being a reliable scorer could be hidden by the fact that most modern day PF’s are not go to scorers. Moving to that SF spot, seems like he’s being forced into a position that relies on being able to score, and I just don’t think he can do it consistently. I also think the loss of JJ Reddick is going to be a big deal for them, as he helped with their spacing. Obviously Jimmy Butler will be missed too, but JJ meant a lot to that team and I’m surprised it hasn’t really been talked about (unless I missed it).

Re: Could Horford end up being the worst contract of offseason?
« Reply #119 on: August 14, 2019, 02:38:13 PM »

Offline Hank Finkel

  • Jrue Holiday
  • Posts: 392
  • Tommy Points: 41
I liked Al too.  He was very professional and a good team player.  I am not sure how he will fit with Philly but they will have a big front line now.  The money is over the top for an aging C/F who is on his way down.  I wish Al well except when he plays the C’s.