Author Topic: Two-Year Plan: AKA How to Win the NBA Championship in 2021 or 2022  (Read 6591 times)

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Re: Two-Year Plan: AKA How to Win the NBA Championship in 2021 or 2022
« Reply #30 on: July 20, 2019, 08:34:55 PM »

Online tazzmaniac

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Eh, I don't disagree with you guys, but I think you are getting thrown off track about the All-Star requirements by the OP. It would probably be a better thread if it were more focused, like:

What should we do with Brown at the deadline if we have not signed him to an extension and he isn't showing improvement?

Because that seems to be the main idea within all of these other mixed together ideas. If you look at it that way, it is a pretty good question. If we simply hold on to him, you are either left matching a max 3+1 - which you have to do - or let him walk for nothing in RFA. At that point, you hope for continued improvement - maybe by way of opportunity with Hayward opting out and moving on - and you either have your All-Star or you have a tradable asset.

Note: I am a huge Jaylen fan and would love nothing more than to see him continue his development through hard work and focus. There is no reason to believe he will plateau at such a young age and with such a strong work ethic.
As I said above, the first question is whether to offer Jaylen a contract extension this offseason and how much to offer.  I think I'd offer him the Brogdon deal (4yr/85M). 

Re: Two-Year Plan: AKA How to Win the NBA Championship in 2021 or 2022
« Reply #31 on: July 20, 2019, 08:38:21 PM »

Offline slamtheking

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Mulling this over, the current cap structure is going to make big 3s about as rare as big 4s (Durant/GS) used to be. If Jaylen is not an all-star by this February and we can flip him for unprotected picks way down the road, like 2024 and 2026, we can simply do one-year dealsto fill out the roster in 2020. We could then head into the golden free agency of 2021 with the following:
This is just hideous.  no sense whatsoever.

your bar for Brown is All-star in his 4th year.  are you setting the same bar for every player we draft?  if not, why?

2020 free agency is W-E-A-K and Brown is definitely getting a max offer. I tend to prefer avoiding giving max contracts to players who are just starters, not all-stars, particularly after seeing how hampered Hayward’s contract has made us without the all-star output we expected. It’s too risky to give Brown max money unless he proves he’s an all-star now.

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makes no sense but what's your reasoning for using that as the standard for keeping or dealing a player?  Smart didn't and he's going into year 6.

Being paid starter money, not max money.

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Walker didn't either but look at the max deal we just gave him.

Walker is All-NBA right now, and could have been an all-star in his fourth season on the right team.

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is your plan to ship out Tatum if he doesn't make it to the all-star team the following season since that would be his 4th year?

Depends on the offer. It’s less risky to hold onto Tatum, sign a big free agent in 2021 and then match Tatum’s best offer. It’s a timing issue with Jaylen compared to Jayson, particularly since the 2021 free agency is loaded whereas 2020 is perhaps the weakest free agency ever unless AD unexpectedly leaves the Lakers.

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All-star voting's a popularity contest so yes, by all means, let's use that as the barometer for determining if a playe
then, throwing the idea out there that a non-all-star player, who you've apparently given up on developing further, is worth not just 1 but 2 unprotected first round picks.  delusional

There will be teams willing to give up 2024 and 2026 picks for Jaylen’s potential, especially in small markets that need potential stardom since they’ll never be free agent players. I’d prefer to let them pay max money to Jaylen, to bear that risk, and we get a piece of their future in return. It beats watching Jaylen walk for nothing, or paying him max money and banking the entire future of the franchise on him without an all-star appearance to show for it.

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not only that, you plan to have a lot of cap space in 2021 for FAs that have watched you treat your roster like crap and will very likely prefer to play somewhere that treats its players with some respect and consideration.

We will have let our last two of three major free agents play out their
contract, with Kemba still on contract, so why would they not
come to Boston like Kemba did this month? I guarantee they’re not coming to Boston if we’re giving max money to Kemba and Brown because the cap simply won’t allow it...

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you think a roster of Kemba, this year's rookies and Timelord and another young pick is going to be a draw for a big FA --> one that's very likely to be looking for a winning situation?  more delusions.

If Kemba AND Tatum are all-stars, which is my bet at this point learning more about Kemba and envisioning him help Tatum return to 2017-2018, yes, I do think we will be attractive as one of 1-3 places that can build a big 3. The new cap structure makes it impossible to build a big 3 with depth unless one of your three hit it big in their first four years with good drafting to round out your depth. We are one of the few teams that could have that opportunity at a Big 3 in 2021 so long as we do not blow it with Jaylen by giving him max money and he never becomes an all-star.

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I passed on this thread the first time it came around because it was just foolish.  this time around it's even worse

I think it’s foolish to throw max money at Brown if he’s not an all-star. All of our eggs in the Jaylen basket? No way unless he finally proves he’s an all-star this season.
1. don't care if you don't like paying non-all stars max money.  game today is having young promising players getting paid as much as they can.  unless Brown busts, which isn't likely, he's getting that money and it'll be in line with other good players in his draft class.
2. Smart's getting paid -- period.  per your criteria, we'd have traded him.  This doesn't fit your criteria and you've yet to explain why you wouldn't have traded him during his fourth year.  by your determination, we'd be out our 6th man right now.
3. your point is irrelevant.  Walker was not an all-star in his 4th season so by your criteria he should have been traded.  you'd have lost an all-star.  saying he could have been if on a different team reeks of alternate universe theory so essentially, you're grasping at straws to try to make a point (which means, you didn't make it successfully).
4. "depending on the trade"?  that's not your criteria.  you've set the bar at achieving all-star status.  if he doesn't get there, the quality of the trade is irrelevant because in your eyes you think you can get 2 unprotected firsts for him (sure, you mentioned it for Brown but following your logic, it follows that you think you can get the same for Tatum)
5. no team is giving up 2 unprotected firsts for a player with potential.  All-stars are getting a first and a player.  if Jaylen doesn't meet your standards, he's not pulling in 2 unprotected firsts, especially from the type of small market team you propose that evidently stinks and 'needs' someone promising.  if he's as promising as you're proposing in your counterpoint, the C's shouldn't be trading him.
6. you're not really paying attention to what you're writing.  which 2 out of 3 free agents are you talking about?  Al and Kyrie left so there's 2.  your team composition doesn't have Hayward so he'd be 3 gone.  Kemba wouldn't count because he's still under contract and surrounded by nothing but middle-first round rookies (or even selected later).  Lakers had a Edited.  Profanity and masked profanity are against forum rules and may result in discipline. of time getting anyone of notable value to join Bron and AD in free agency with all their money.  you think Kemba's going to draw big names by himself in light of that? 
7. you're proposing Tatum will make the all-star team yet  Brown won't even though Brown played much better last year as the season progressed and in the playoffs.  if you're applying standards to evaluate everyone, be evenhanded.  right now, Brown's produced more.
8. all eggs are not in Brown's basket because Tatum will get paid too.  Danny's looking to add a better big man for next year -- possibly with Hayward on his last year depending on how he bounces back.  you can stick to not paying max money but understand this, Brown will get it either from us or someone else.  bank on it being us.

Re: Two-Year Plan: AKA How to Win the NBA Championship in 2021 or 2022
« Reply #32 on: July 20, 2019, 09:14:10 PM »

Offline blink

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Eh, I don't disagree with you guys, but I think you are getting thrown off track about the All-Star requirements by the OP. It would probably be a better thread if it were more focused, like:

What should we do with Brown at the deadline if we have not signed him to an extension and he isn't showing improvement?


Well if we are 'getting thrown off' it is because this is what the original post said
"Jaylen: It’s a make-or-break year. If he is not an all-star at the deadline, I want him moved for a matching 1-2 year contract of a journeyman and 1-2 picks."

If the OP wants to make a more thread with a more reasonable discussion point like you included, great.  But it isn't what he said.

Re: Two-Year Plan: AKA How to Win the NBA Championship in 2021 or 2022
« Reply #33 on: July 20, 2019, 09:19:59 PM »

Offline blink

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That's not a plan for a championship. That's hoping for our current best case scenario happens and, if not, very hastily moving on from young talent and falling back into a tank job while keeping Kemba.

The bolded section wouldn't even make sense by itself.  So Kemba is going to be how old when all these (4) miraculous unprotected draft picks get swapped for Jaylen and Jayson (when they don't make the all star team at year 4)?  Maybe Kemba would be 35 by the point those players are picked and have a couple years to develop.  This is totally a tank proposal.  Might as well just trade everyone Kemba, Hayward, Brown and Tatum if you are going to do this.  It would make more sense that way.

Re: Two-Year Plan: AKA How to Win the NBA Championship in 2021 or 2022
« Reply #34 on: July 20, 2019, 09:21:25 PM »

Offline blink

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Eh, I don't disagree with you guys, but I think you are getting thrown off track about the All-Star requirements by the OP. It would probably be a better thread if it were more focused, like:

What should we do with Brown at the deadline if we have not signed him to an extension and he isn't showing improvement?

Because that seems to be the main idea within all of these other mixed together ideas. If you look at it that way, it is a pretty good question. If we simply hold on to him, you are either left matching a max 3+1 - which you have to do - or let him walk for nothing in RFA. At that point, you hope for continued improvement - maybe by way of opportunity with Hayward opting out and moving on - and you either have your All-Star or you have a tradable asset.

Note: I am a huge Jaylen fan and would love nothing more than to see him continue his development through hard work and focus. There is no reason to believe he will plateau at such a young age and with such a strong work ethic.
As I said above, the first question is whether to offer Jaylen a contract extension this offseason and how much to offer.  I think I'd offer him the Brogdon deal (4yr/85M).

I think that would probably be a decent idea.

Re: Two-Year Plan: AKA How to Win the NBA Championship in 2021 or 2022
« Reply #35 on: July 20, 2019, 09:37:10 PM »

Offline nickagneta

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So what do you do with Brown if he puts up 18/6/2 on 47/39/75 while playing All-Defense quality defense but doesn't make the All-Star team? So he shows major development, is playing great Celtic basketball, is playing well enough to be considered an All-Star but wasn't. Does the OP dump him anyway?

Thinking 23 year olds have fully developed and their careers should be judged accordingly is just crazy bad player development thinking. I can't imagine how such a policy would work when you start drafting 17 year old high school kids. Do you start making black and white decisions based on how they look after 3 1/2 years when they are 21 or 22? Good grief!!!!

If Brown shows more development, a max for him could be a bargain contract for the last couple years of that contract as he enters and plays in his prime. He will get a max and if he isn't outstanding, even on a max, Brown will be easy to move for value. It's only a 25% of the cap max, not like a John Wall or Chris Paul max!!

Re: Two-Year Plan: AKA How to Win the NBA Championship in 2021 or 2022
« Reply #36 on: July 20, 2019, 10:38:07 PM »

Online tazzmaniac

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So what do you do with Brown if he puts up 18/6/2 on 47/39/75 while playing All-Defense quality defense but doesn't make the All-Star team? So he shows major development, is playing great Celtic basketball, is playing well enough to be considered an All-Star but wasn't. Does the OP dump him anyway?

Thinking 23 year olds have fully developed and their careers should be judged accordingly is just crazy bad player development thinking. I can't imagine how such a policy would work when you start drafting 17 year old high school kids. Do you start making black and white decisions based on how they look after 3 1/2 years when they are 21 or 22? Good grief!!!!

If Brown shows more development, a max for him could be a bargain contract for the last couple years of that contract as he enters and plays in his prime. He will get a max and if he isn't outstanding, even on a max, Brown will be easy to move for value. It's only a 25% of the cap max, not like a John Wall or Chris Paul max!!
What if he only shows modest improvement?  What if he shows little to no improvement?  You say its easy to move a 25%Max contract.  Tell that to Minny who has Wiggins on a 25%Max contract for the next 4 years. 

Based on what he's done so far a Brogdon level of contract (4yr/85M) seems appropriate.  Does Jaylen being 4 years younger justify bumping him to the Max? 

Re: Two-Year Plan: AKA How to Win the NBA Championship in 2021 or 2022
« Reply #37 on: July 20, 2019, 11:02:22 PM »

Offline slamtheking

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So what do you do with Brown if he puts up 18/6/2 on 47/39/75 while playing All-Defense quality defense but doesn't make the All-Star team? So he shows major development, is playing great Celtic basketball, is playing well enough to be considered an All-Star but wasn't. Does the OP dump him anyway?

Thinking 23 year olds have fully developed and their careers should be judged accordingly is just crazy bad player development thinking. I can't imagine how such a policy would work when you start drafting 17 year old high school kids. Do you start making black and white decisions based on how they look after 3 1/2 years when they are 21 or 22? Good grief!!!!

If Brown shows more development, a max for him could be a bargain contract for the last couple years of that contract as he enters and plays in his prime. He will get a max and if he isn't outstanding, even on a max, Brown will be easy to move for value. It's only a 25% of the cap max, not like a John Wall or Chris Paul max!!
What if he only shows modest improvement?  What if he shows little to no improvement?  You say its easy to move a 25%Max contract.  Tell that to Minny who has Wiggins on a 25%Max contract for the next 4 years. 

Based on what he's done so far a Brogdon level of contract (4yr/85M) seems appropriate.  Does Jaylen being 4 years younger justify bumping him to the Max? 
as previously mentioned a few posts earlier, that wasn't the topic the OP raised.  what to offer Brown would have been a far more productive thread

Re: Two-Year Plan: AKA How to Win the NBA Championship in 2021 or 2022
« Reply #38 on: July 20, 2019, 11:44:09 PM »

Online tazzmaniac

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So what do you do with Brown if he puts up 18/6/2 on 47/39/75 while playing All-Defense quality defense but doesn't make the All-Star team? So he shows major development, is playing great Celtic basketball, is playing well enough to be considered an All-Star but wasn't. Does the OP dump him anyway?

Thinking 23 year olds have fully developed and their careers should be judged accordingly is just crazy bad player development thinking. I can't imagine how such a policy would work when you start drafting 17 year old high school kids. Do you start making black and white decisions based on how they look after 3 1/2 years when they are 21 or 22? Good grief!!!!

If Brown shows more development, a max for him could be a bargain contract for the last couple years of that contract as he enters and plays in his prime. He will get a max and if he isn't outstanding, even on a max, Brown will be easy to move for value. It's only a 25% of the cap max, not like a John Wall or Chris Paul max!!
What if he only shows modest improvement?  What if he shows little to no improvement?  You say its easy to move a 25%Max contract.  Tell that to Minny who has Wiggins on a 25%Max contract for the next 4 years. 

Based on what he's done so far a Brogdon level of contract (4yr/85M) seems appropriate.  Does Jaylen being 4 years younger justify bumping him to the Max? 
as previously mentioned a few posts earlier, that wasn't the topic the OP raised.  what to offer Brown would have been a far more productive thread
I agree.  I'm surprised there isn't a long thread about it considering we're in the doldrums and Brown mentioned no one had contacted them about the extension a week ago. 

Re: Two-Year Plan: AKA How to Win the NBA Championship in 2021 or 2022
« Reply #39 on: July 21, 2019, 05:46:15 AM »

Offline Celtics4ever

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Ainge had a plan and it did not work, what makes you think this one will?

Re: Two-Year Plan: AKA How to Win the NBA Championship in 2021 or 2022
« Reply #40 on: July 21, 2019, 04:16:46 PM »

Offline IDreamCeltics

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Eh, I don't disagree with you guys, but I think you are getting thrown off track about the All-Star requirements by the OP. It would probably be a better thread if it were more focused, like:

What should we do with Brown at the deadline if we have not signed him to an extension and he isn't showing improvement?

Because that seems to be the main idea within all of these other mixed together ideas. If you look at it that way, it is a pretty good question. If we simply hold on to him, you are either left matching a max 3+1 - which you have to do - or let him walk for nothing in RFA. At that point, you hope for continued improvement - maybe by way of opportunity with Hayward opting out and moving on - and you either have your All-Star or you have a tradable asset.

Note: I am a huge Jaylen fan and would love nothing more than to see him continue his development through hard work and focus. There is no reason to believe he will plateau at such a young age and with such a strong work ethic.
As I said above, the first question is whether to offer Jaylen a contract extension this offseason and how much to offer.  I think I'd offer him the Brogdon deal (4yr/85M).

So you think they refused to trade Jaylen Brown for Jimmy Butler, Kawhi Leonard, and Paul George only to low-ball him in contract negotiations in the end?  Interesting...