Poll: Which QB Option is the Best?

[W8ting2McHale]

I wouldn’t expect anyone to give up what the 49ers did to move from #12 to #3. They were in a unique position being a contender that lacked a quarterback. Jimmy G was fragile and looked like just another guy. Taking a gamble on Trey Lance turned out to be foolish, because he’s been more fragile than Jimmy and he didn’t get a second chance after the emergence of Brock Purdy.

That’s going to serve as a warning to other teams. Why throw away picks when quarterbacks are a gamble and you can find one later in the draft.

The situation just isn’t the same this year. Teams desperate for a quarterback this year are already in position to take one early, and there’s not a contender that needs a quarterback now that Pittsburgh signed Wilson. And they’re not really a contender although they are trying hard to convince themselves. Dallas is the closest to that scenario and they just traded a 4th for Trey Lance.

Someone might want to move up, like Denver, but it won’t be for a 2021 type haul.

I know the Giants at 6 have been looking to move into the top 3.

That’s the rumor, but it’s still not an equivalent situation to the 49ers having built a contending team and needing to move from 12 to 3 in order to draft a QB. The Giants only need to move up 3 spots and while they are definitely needing a QB, it’s not going to get them to the playoffs.

In 2018, the New York Jets moved from No. 6 to No. 3 to select Sam Darnold. They surrendered three second-round picks, two in that draft and one in the following draft.

That’s more in line with what the Giants are going to offer. Although it would be a swap for their 1st this year, plus a second and then another 2nd next year. Slightly better than the Jets offer in 2018. Maybe they have to kick in a 5th round pick either this year or a 4th in 2025, but I think that’s more than they’ll be willing to pay.

I mentioned the Broncos earlier, and they hold the 12th pick, but they’ve been terrible at drafting quarterbacks, so I doubt they’ll pony up what the 49ers did to draft the 2nd or 3rd QB option.

[Moranis]

I wouldn’t expect anyone to give up what the 49ers did to move from #12 to #3. They were in a unique position being a contender that lacked a quarterback. Jimmy G was fragile and looked like just another guy. Taking a gamble on Trey Lance turned out to be foolish, because he’s been more fragile than Jimmy and he didn’t get a second chance after the emergence of Brock Purdy.

That’s going to serve as a warning to other teams. Why throw away picks when quarterbacks are a gamble and you can find one later in the draft.

The situation just isn’t the same this year. Teams desperate for a quarterback this year are already in position to take one early, and there’s not a contender that needs a quarterback now that Pittsburgh signed Wilson. And they’re not really a contender although they are trying hard to convince themselves. Dallas is the closest to that scenario and they just traded a 4th for Trey Lance.

Someone might want to move up, like Denver, but it won’t be for a 2021 type haul.

I know the Giants at 6 have been looking to move into the top 3.

That’s the rumor, but it’s still not an equivalent situation to the 49ers having built a contending team and needing to move from 12 to 3 in order to draft a QB. The Giants only need to move up 3 spots and while they are definitely needing a QB, it’s not going to get them to the playoffs.

In 2018, the New York Jets moved from No. 6 to No. 3 to select Sam Darnold. They surrendered three second-round picks, two in that draft and one in the following draft.

That’s more in line with what the Giants are going to offer. Although it would be a swap for their 1st this year, plus a second and then another 2nd next year. Slightly better than the Jets offer in 2018. Maybe they have to kick in a 5th round pick either this year or a 4th in 2025, but I think that’s more than they’ll be willing to pay.

I mentioned the Broncos earlier, and they hold the 12th pick, but they’ve been terrible at drafting quarterbacks, so I doubt they’ll pony up what the 49ers did to draft the 2nd or 3rd QB option.

The Jets gave up 6, 37, 49, and a future 2nd (that ended up being 34).  So yeah they gave up 3 2nd's, but also swapped 1st's.  The Giants actually have 2 2nd's this year and almost the same position as the Jets had, as they have 6, 39, and 47.  So they could do a very similar trade and give up those 3 picks and next year's 2nd.  Unless the Pats really aren't sold on Maye/Daniels, then I see no reason for them to do that.

[Vermont Green]

I wouldn’t expect anyone to give up what the 49ers did to move from #12 to #3. They were in a unique position being a contender that lacked a quarterback. Jimmy G was fragile and looked like just another guy. Taking a gamble on Trey Lance turned out to be foolish, because he’s been more fragile than Jimmy and he didn’t get a second chance after the emergence of Brock Purdy.

That’s going to serve as a warning to other teams. Why throw away picks when quarterbacks are a gamble and you can find one later in the draft.

The situation just isn’t the same this year. Teams desperate for a quarterback this year are already in position to take one early, and there’s not a contender that needs a quarterback now that Pittsburgh signed Wilson. And they’re not really a contender although they are trying hard to convince themselves. Dallas is the closest to that scenario and they just traded a 4th for Trey Lance.

Someone might want to move up, like Denver, but it won’t be for a 2021 type haul.

I know the Giants at 6 have been looking to move into the top 3.

That’s the rumor, but it’s still not an equivalent situation to the 49ers having built a contending team and needing to move from 12 to 3 in order to draft a QB. The Giants only need to move up 3 spots and while they are definitely needing a QB, it’s not going to get them to the playoffs.

In 2018, the New York Jets moved from No. 6 to No. 3 to select Sam Darnold. They surrendered three second-round picks, two in that draft and one in the following draft.

That’s more in line with what the Giants are going to offer. Although it would be a swap for their 1st this year, plus a second and then another 2nd next year. Slightly better than the Jets offer in 2018. Maybe they have to kick in a 5th round pick either this year or a 4th in 2025, but I think that’s more than they’ll be willing to pay.

I mentioned the Broncos earlier, and they hold the 12th pick, but they’ve been terrible at drafting quarterbacks, so I doubt they’ll pony up what the 49ers did to draft the 2nd or 3rd QB option.

The Jets gave up 6, 37, 49, and a future 2nd (that ended up being 34).  So yeah they gave up 3 2nd's, but also swapped 1st's.  The Giants actually have 2 2nd's this year and almost the same position as the Jets had, as they have 6, 39, and 47.  So they could do a very similar trade and give up those 3 picks and next year's 2nd.  Unless the Pats really aren't sold on Maye/Daniels, then I see no reason for them to do that.

It is amazing how poorly the Jets and 49ers trades worked out for the teams trading up to get a QB.  We shall see how much that history impacts the appetite of current teams to move up.  Those trades are hauls.  If the Pats were to trade with the Giants, and got something similar to what the Jets gave up, they still would have pick #6 and could get JJ McCarthy.  But if Maye ends up being Josh Allen and McCarthy ends up being Trubisky, it won't seem like such a great trade.  But Maye could be a bust and the Pats could end up stocked with young talent.  You just don't know.

[Roy H.]

I wouldn’t expect anyone to give up what the 49ers did to move from #12 to #3. They were in a unique position being a contender that lacked a quarterback. Jimmy G was fragile and looked like just another guy. Taking a gamble on Trey Lance turned out to be foolish, because he’s been more fragile than Jimmy and he didn’t get a second chance after the emergence of Brock Purdy.

That’s going to serve as a warning to other teams. Why throw away picks when quarterbacks are a gamble and you can find one later in the draft.

The situation just isn’t the same this year. Teams desperate for a quarterback this year are already in position to take one early, and there’s not a contender that needs a quarterback now that Pittsburgh signed Wilson. And they’re not really a contender although they are trying hard to convince themselves. Dallas is the closest to that scenario and they just traded a 4th for Trey Lance.

Someone might want to move up, like Denver, but it won’t be for a 2021 type haul.

I know the Giants at 6 have been looking to move into the top 3.

That’s the rumor, but it’s still not an equivalent situation to the 49ers having built a contending team and needing to move from 12 to 3 in order to draft a QB. The Giants only need to move up 3 spots and while they are definitely needing a QB, it’s not going to get them to the playoffs.

In 2018, the New York Jets moved from No. 6 to No. 3 to select Sam Darnold. They surrendered three second-round picks, two in that draft and one in the following draft.

That’s more in line with what the Giants are going to offer. Although it would be a swap for their 1st this year, plus a second and then another 2nd next year. Slightly better than the Jets offer in 2018. Maybe they have to kick in a 5th round pick either this year or a 4th in 2025, but I think that’s more than they’ll be willing to pay.

I mentioned the Broncos earlier, and they hold the 12th pick, but they’ve been terrible at drafting quarterbacks, so I doubt they’ll pony up what the 49ers did to draft the 2nd or 3rd QB option.

The Jets gave up 6, 37, 49, and a future 2nd (that ended up being 34).  So yeah they gave up 3 2nd's, but also swapped 1st's.  The Giants actually have 2 2nd's this year and almost the same position as the Jets had, as they have 6, 39, and 47.  So they could do a very similar trade and give up those 3 picks and next year's 2nd.  Unless the Pats really aren't sold on Maye/Daniels, then I see no reason for them to do that.

It is amazing how poorly the Jets and 49ers trades worked out for the teams trading up to get a QB.  We shall see how much that history impacts the appetite of current teams to move up.  Those trades are hauls.  If the Pats were to trade with the Giants, and got something similar to what the Jets gave up, they still would have pick #6 and could get JJ McCarthy.  But if Maye ends up being Josh Allen and McCarthy ends up being Trubisky, it won't seem like such a great trade.  But Maye could be a bust and the Pats could end up stocked with young talent.  You just don't know.

Right. Teams make these trades because they think that they are smarter than the teams that failed previously, and are enticed by the trades that have worked out.


Buffalo gave up two second rounders to move up only five slots in the draft to select Josh Allen. They have zero regrets.  It's the same thing with Kansas City, whichgave up a future first and a third rounder to move up to #10 to take Mahomes.  Every team that moves up thinks that they are going to be Buffalo or KC.

[Vermont Green]

Buffalo gave up two second rounders to move up only five slots in the draft to select Josh Allen. They have zero regrets.  It's the same thing with Kansas City, which gave up a future first and a third rounder to move up to #10 to take Mahomes.  Every team that moves up thinks that they are going to be Buffalo or KC.

The serendipity of this is even more than the parts you state.  In 2017, it was Buffalo that traded the #10 pick to KC (Mahomes) in exchange for #27, a 3rd, and a #1 in 2018.  Buffalo was then the team trading up to get Josh Allen in 2018.  Those are two pretty good examples of trading up for a QB and winning the trade, but it seems like there are a lot more trade ups for QBs that don't end up being winning trades.  This is also two examples of getting a franchise QB (and then some) with a pick well outside the top 3.

So what the Pats need to do is trade down and get a pick in the #10-#12 range along with multiple other good picks, and just pick the next Mahomes or Josh Allen.  Let the other team take the next Trey Lance or Zach Wilson at #3.  Simple.

I feel like there is a strong possibility that Caleb Williams could be the next Bryce Young and that Jayden Daniels is no better than Michael Penix, and that JJ McCarthy may be as good as Drake Maye.  But it is also nearly as likely that it is just the opposite, Williams is a star, and Daniels and Maye are much better than Penix or McCarthy. 

Trubisky went ahead of Mahomes and Watson.  Mayfield and Darnold went ahead of Josh Allen.  You would think scouts would be better at this.  I actually think that Drake Maye can be another Josh Allen.  That is what I think I know.  And I am leery of both Daniels and Williams and would probably trade back if offered a boatload and could get JJ McCarthy plus the boatload if it is Daniels (for example) who is there at #3.

[Vermont Green]

I thought I would bump this and see if opinions are starting to change.  There has been a lot more talk on JJ McCarthy and Penix since this was started.  There are only so many things a team can do with a draft pick:

      Trade Up
      Trade Down
      Keep the Pick

I don't think there is much chance the Pats trade up.  Maybe trade down and then part way back up, but that is really still trading down.  There are examples of teams trading up and getting a great QB (Mahomes and Allen have been highlighted).  There are a lot of cases where teams trade up and end up with a bust.  Same is true for staying put and picking a QB.  But is there a case where a team traded down in the first round and still took a QB, and that QB ended up being a star?  I can't think of one.

I have heard a lot of opinions that the Pats should not get too cute with the pick.  If you trade down, you may fetch a good haul for that, but if the plan is to still take a QB in the first round, just lower down, a lot could go wrong with that.  If you pull it off though, trade for more picks and still end up with a franchise QB, that could set up the team for years to come.

So can they pull it off?  Can you trade down and still get the QB the team needs?

[green_bballers13]

So can they pull it off?  Can you trade down and still get the QB the team needs?

Oh absolutely. Fans have their preferences, but this has nothing to do with the team's intentions. At one point, the Raiders and Cardinals thought that Jamarcus Russell and Josh Rosen were their future leaders. Three teams will convince themselves that the top 3 (Williams, Daniels, Maye) will be studs, when this probably won't happen.

Personally, I think JJ and Penix can be good pros if put in the right circumstances. Further, I think Daniels and Maye can flop if Wash/NE don't surround them with talent.

I think the Pats will take Daniels or Maye, and we will need to give them time before we can negatively judge them. I think Carolina should give Bryce Young two more years before deciding to pull the plug. This is certainly not a science, and I'm sure one team will find a quarterback later in the draft to contribute. I think it's Joe Milton this year.

[Moranis]

I thought I would bump this and see if opinions are starting to change.  There has been a lot more talk on JJ McCarthy and Penix since this was started.  There are only so many things a team can do with a draft pick:

      Trade Up
      Trade Down
      Keep the Pick

I don't think there is much chance the Pats trade up.  Maybe trade down and then part way back up, but that is really still trading down.  There are examples of teams trading up and getting a great QB (Mahomes and Allen have been highlighted).  There are a lot of cases where teams trade up and end up with a bust.  Same is true for staying put and picking a QB.  But is there a case where a team traded down in the first round and still took a QB, and that QB ended up being a star?  I can't think of one.

I have heard a lot of opinions that the Pats should not get too cute with the pick.  If you trade down, you may fetch a good haul for that, but if the plan is to still take a QB in the first round, just lower down, a lot could go wrong with that.  If you pull it off though, trade for more picks and still end up with a franchise QB, that could set up the team for years to come.

So can they pull it off?  Can you trade down and still get the QB the team needs?

Well a team generally isn't going to trade back if they need a QB, but the Eli Manning/Phillip Rivers trade seemingly worked out well for both teams. 

Trade was

Eli Manning (1)

for what eventually became

Philip Rivers (4)
Nate Kaeding (65)
Shawne Merriman (next year 1st - 12)
Jerome Collins (next year 5th - 144)

[Donoghus]

I thought I would bump this and see if opinions are starting to change.  There has been a lot more talk on JJ McCarthy and Penix since this was started.  There are only so many things a team can do with a draft pick:

      Trade Up
      Trade Down
      Keep the Pick

I don't think there is much chance the Pats trade up.  Maybe trade down and then part way back up, but that is really still trading down.  There are examples of teams trading up and getting a great QB (Mahomes and Allen have been highlighted).  There are a lot of cases where teams trade up and end up with a bust.  Same is true for staying put and picking a QB.  But is there a case where a team traded down in the first round and still took a QB, and that QB ended up being a star?  I can't think of one.

I have heard a lot of opinions that the Pats should not get too cute with the pick.  If you trade down, you may fetch a good haul for that, but if the plan is to still take a QB in the first round, just lower down, a lot could go wrong with that.  If you pull it off though, trade for more picks and still end up with a franchise QB, that could set up the team for years to come.

So can they pull it off?  Can you trade down and still get the QB the team needs?

Well a team generally isn't going to trade back if they need a QB, but the Eli Manning/Phillip Rivers trade seemingly worked out well for both teams. 

Trade was

Eli Manning (1)

for what eventually became

Philip Rivers (4)
Nate Kaeding (65)
Shawne Merriman (next year 1st - 12)
Jerome Collins (next year 5th - 144)

San Diego also traded down in '01 and ended up with both Tomllnson & Brees.

Atlanta ended up with Vick.

[Phantom255x]

Schefter doesn't strike me as a hot take artist or someone who just blindly speculates, and today he pretty much said the consensus is Bears take Williams #1, and Commanders take Daniels #2. Meaning NE probably has to decide to take Maye or trade down. Maye is meeting with the Pats tomorrow for a Top-30 visit btw.

It's kind of like how sometimes Woj or Shams before the NBA Draft (or right before the actual selections) will pretty much indicate who is going at certain spots even though they technically aren't allowed to "spoil it" in advance. Felt like Schefter did the same today. Reiss also seems to indicate the Pats will take Maye based on his great Sunday notes columns.

Officially 3 weeks away from the NFL draft.

[Moranis]

Here is an article from 2021 that had all of the times a team traded up in the 1st round for a QB.  Some, like Jordan Love, were moving up a few places late in the round, while plenty of others were moving up to the 1st pick in the draft (Goff, Vick).

The Eli Manning trade wasn't before the 1st round so it isn't included. 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2021/story/_/id/31173355/all-29-s-nfl-teams-traded-draft-quarterback

[Donoghus]

Here is an article from 2021 that had all of the times a team traded up in the 1st round for a QB.  Some, like Jordan Love, were moving up a few places late in the round, while plenty of others were moving up to the 1st pick in the draft (Goff, Vick).

The Eli Manning trade wasn't before the 1st round so it isn't included. 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2021/story/_/id/31173355/all-29-s-nfl-teams-traded-draft-quarterback

Crazy that there was not a single trade in the 80s. 

[Vermont Green]

Seems like a lot of JJ McCarthy talk these days.  I also saw a  report that LV-Raiders want Daniels and may trade up to get him.  This is all just rumor and speculation but the Commanders might just be crazy enough to take JJ McCarthy and let Daniels fall to the Pats.  It would not be a shocker if they took Drake Maye either.

So if Daniels falls, draft him or trade the pick?

[Moranis]

If the Commanders take McCarthy, the Pats should trade with Vikings and then move back up to take whoever Vikings don't take at 3.

[Vermont Green]

I finally got some time to look at film on the main Patriots considerations, Daniels, Maye, McCarthy.  I am no expert.  I played football at a small HS in NH, starting linebacker.  So I have no qualification or credibility to judge QBs.  But based on what I saw, I don't think Daniels has a very strong arm.  Everything looked like a touch pass.  Everything had loft, not zip.  I don't know what the experts are saying about arm strength, they probably have far better tools to measure that, but I didn't see it.

After that, trying to compare Maye and McCarthy, based on highlight reels, is really hard.  I will say that Maye was a little more reckless with his throws (maybe more than a little) but he made some strong throws that I don't think McCarthy could make (and certainly not Daniels).  McCarthy was solid though.  Seemed to have plenty of arm, plenty of athleticism.  McCarthy has been moving up based on buzz (although not on this poll).  If the Commanders take Maye, I think I would be fine with McCarthy, probably take him at 3 vs. trying to trade down and get him or someone else later.  If they take McCarthy, I definitely take Maye over Daniels.

But if the Commanders take Daniels, as expected, then it gets tough.  Mel Kiper says Maye is the home run, but he is wrong as much as right.  Hoge doesn't like Maye, doesn't seem to like any QB, but he had Trubisky (from UNC also) ahead of Watson and Mahomes in 2017 (maybe that is why he is gun-shy on Maye).  It is amazing how hard it is to judge QBs.