2024 NFL Draft

[footey]

Now that the combine is coming up, thought it would be good to start a thread on the NFL draft.  I don't typically follow in depth, but as a Patriots fan, am especially interested in it, and have been following most of the mock drafts.

Early consensus seems:

1. Caleb Williams
2. Maye or Daniels
3. Maye or Daniels
4. Marvin Harrison
5 and on. Pretty wide open

I hope the Pats take whoever is available at 3.  I also hope they can figure out how to trade up into the 1st round to nab a good tackle, wide receiver or tight end. 

[Donoghus]

Sounds like Dallas Turner is having himself a combine.

40.5 inch vertical leap & his wingspan was measured at 83 inches. That's Tatum's wingspan.  And this kid is only 6'2".

[Roy H.]

Sounds like Dallas Turner is having himself a combine.

40.5 inch vertical leap & his wingspan was measured at 83 inches. That's Tatum's wingspan.  And this kid is only 6'2".

He's gotta be first defender off the board, right?

[Donoghus]

Sounds like Dallas Turner is having himself a combine.

40.5 inch vertical leap & his wingspan was measured at 83 inches. That's Tatum's wingspan.  And this kid is only 6'2".

He's gotta be first defender off the board, right?

Yeah, he might be sitting there for your Bears.

Bucky Brooks has him going #8 and the first defender in his mock.

[Roy H.]

For those who have watched all of the prospects extensively, why is McCarthy seen as a better prospect than Nix or Penix?

[Celtics2021]

For those who have watched all of the prospects extensively, why is McCarthy seen as a better prospect than Nix or Penix?

He’s way younger than both.  He was 20 the entire college season.  He’s a significantly better downfield thrower than Nix, and about as accurate, which is Nix’s best attribute.  Penix is the better deep
ball thrower, but McCarthy is terrific in the intermediate range at leading his receivers and fitting the ball through small windows (sometimes perilously small it feels).  McCarthy is also the better runner and doesn’t have Penix’ lengthy injury history.

If I wanted a QB for the next two years only, I’d probably pick Penix, because he’s ahead overall as a thrower.  But if I was hopeful to get a QB for anything beyond that, it’s McCarthy.  It’s that ceiling or floor debate, of course, but with a first round QB you should look much more at ceiling than floor in my mind.

I know Seattle is hoping McCarthy falls to them, so they can keep him behind Geno for a year and then let him take over.  If the Bears keep Fields, I think they should consider the same with JJ. He’d be best served with a redshirt year, but his ceiling is vast.

[Roy H.]

For those who have watched all of the prospects extensively, why is McCarthy seen as a better prospect than Nix or Penix?

He’s way younger than both.  He was 20 the entire college season.  He’s a significantly better downfield thrower than Nix, and about as accurate, which is Nix’s best attribute.  Penix is the better deep
ball thrower, but McCarthy is terrific in the intermediate range at leading his receivers and fitting the ball through small windows (sometimes perilously small it feels).  McCarthy is also the better runner and doesn’t have Penix’ lengthy injury history.

If I wanted a QB for the next two years only, I’d probably pick Penix, because he’s ahead overall as a thrower.  But if I was hopeful to get a QB for anything beyond that, it’s McCarthy.  It’s that ceiling or floor debate, of course, but with a first round QB you should look much more at ceiling than floor in my mind.

I know Seattle is hoping McCarthy falls to them, so they can keep him behind Geno for a year and then let him take over.  If the Bears keep Fields, I think they should consider the same with JJ. He’d be best served with a redshirt year, but his ceiling is vast.

I assume you (and seemingly most NFL talent evaluators) disagree with the "he can't throw left" narrative?

[Celtics2021]

For those who have watched all of the prospects extensively, why is McCarthy seen as a better prospect than Nix or Penix?

He’s way younger than both.  He was 20 the entire college season.  He’s a significantly better downfield thrower than Nix, and about as accurate, which is Nix’s best attribute.  Penix is the better deep
ball thrower, but McCarthy is terrific in the intermediate range at leading his receivers and fitting the ball through small windows (sometimes perilously small it feels).  McCarthy is also the better runner and doesn’t have Penix’ lengthy injury history.

If I wanted a QB for the next two years only, I’d probably pick Penix, because he’s ahead overall as a thrower.  But if I was hopeful to get a QB for anything beyond that, it’s McCarthy.  It’s that ceiling or floor debate, of course, but with a first round QB you should look much more at ceiling than floor in my mind.

I know Seattle is hoping McCarthy falls to them, so they can keep him behind Geno for a year and then let him take over.  If the Bears keep Fields, I think they should consider the same with JJ. He’d be best served with a redshirt year, but his ceiling is vast.

I assume you (and seemingly most NFL talent evaluators) disagree with the "he can't throw left" narrative?

Yeah, I absolutely disagree on that.  He might be a better thrower to his right, especially when he’s making plays outside the pocket, but he absolutely can throw left.  He did get a lot more reps throwing right in college, also, because Michigan’s running game strength was to the left, so they often passed the other direction where the defense was softer because it was stacked to stop the run.  But he can throw to both sides — he’s not Derek Zoolander.

[green_bballers13]

Merrill Hoge said he wouldn't pick Drake Maye in the first round. According to him, he's inaccurate, not as athletic as other qbs, stiff, and has a longer release of the ball. Dan Orlovsky said that his footwork is a mess. Has anyone seen enough Maye to refute this?

I know there are very few "can't miss" prospects, but Maye and Daniels make me a little nervous at #2 and #3.

[Celtics2021]

Merrill Hoge said he wouldn't pick Drake Maye in the first round. According to him, he's inaccurate, not as athletic as other qbs, stiff, and has a longer release of the ball. Dan Orlovsky said that his footwork is a mess. Has anyone seen enough Maye to refute this?

I know there are very few "can't miss" prospects, but Maye and Daniels make me a little nervous at #2 and #3.

For a few years now (pretty much since he’s been without a media gig), Merrill has been in the business of calling most projected top picks busts, because some of them will.  Then he’ll recycle his clips of him calling such a player a bust, ignoring all the ones who succeeded that he was wrong about, in hopes that someone will give him a gig again.  He was just as harsh about Caleb Williams as Drake Maye.

Not to say Drake Maye is a lock to succeed — obviously he isn’t — no prospect is.  I’d just not pay much attention to Merrill Hoge at this point.

[Donoghus]

Merrill Hoge said he wouldn't pick Drake Maye in the first round. According to him, he's inaccurate, not as athletic as other qbs, stiff, and has a longer release of the ball. Dan Orlovsky said that his footwork is a mess. Has anyone seen enough Maye to refute this?

I know there are very few "can't miss" prospects, but Maye and Daniels make me a little nervous at #2 and #3.

For a few years now (pretty much since he’s been without a media gig), Merrill has been in the business of calling most projected top picks busts, because some of them will.  Then he’ll recycle his clips of him calling such a player a bust, ignoring all the ones who succeeded that he was wrong about, in hopes that someone will give him a gig again.  He was just as harsh about Caleb Williams as Drake Maye.

Not to say Drake Maye is a lock to succeed — obviously he isn’t — no prospect is.  I’d just not pay much attention to Merrill Hoge at this point.

Yup.

Hoge gets love because he nailed Manziel as a bust years ago and he seems to have nailed CJ Stroud.

However, he's also the guy who was fawning over Brian Brohm, hyped up Jacob Eason, did not not like Herbert or Love, and bashed Cam Newton

[footey]

Great interview by Tom Curran of Brian Hoyer.  Hoyer is such an impressive guy.  He really speaks highly of Mac Jones, lauded his intelligence and ability to process quickly.  Team seems headed in different direction, and who can blame him, but I would not be surprised if Mac ends up starting for another team that has better protection and schemes.  Heard similar compliments of Mac from former Patriot O line coach, Dante Scarnecchia.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hmxhL6dOMe8

[Roy H.]

Does there seem to be a consensus about who the first nine players that will be drafted are?

In some order:  Williams, Daniels, Maye, McCarthy, Harrison, Odunze, Nabers, Alt, Turner

The presumption seems to be that one of Minnesota, Denver or Vegas will trade up into the top nine for McCarthy.

Do others agree?

[Celtics2021]

Does there seem to be a consensus about who the first nine players that will be drafted are?

In some order:  Williams, Daniels, Maye, McCarthy, Harrison, Odunze, Nabers, Alt, Turner

The presumption seems to be that one of Minnesota, Denver or Vegas will trade up into the top nine for McCarthy.

Do others agree?

I understand that those seem to be the top 9 people are coalescing around, but I find it very difficult to believe that when draft day rolls around, 7 of the first 9 picks will be QBs and WRs, and 8 of the top 9 coming on offense.

I also think McCarthy goes in the top 3, and one of Maye or Daniels slides down to QB4.

[Roy H.]

Does there seem to be a consensus about who the first nine players that will be drafted are?

In some order:  Williams, Daniels, Maye, McCarthy, Harrison, Odunze, Nabers, Alt, Turner

The presumption seems to be that one of Minnesota, Denver or Vegas will trade up into the top nine for McCarthy.

Do others agree?

I understand that those seem to be the top 9 people are coalescing around, but I find it very difficult to believe that when draft day rolls around, 7 of the first 9 picks will be QBs and WRs, and 8 of the top 9 coming on offense.

I also think McCarthy goes in the top 3, and one of Maye or Daniels slides down to QB4.

From a historic perspective you're right about the oddity of such much offensive focus, but is there a defender worthy of being picked in the top-9 outside of Turner?

The only other guy I feel really good about from a skill perspective is Latu.  The guy is a beast.  But, he's also had severe neck issues in the past.

But yeah, I guess the smart money would be that somebody unexpected gets picked, just because these things never go according to chalk.